MJGMB #71: Betting the Upcoming Season with Jamieson Welsh - podcast episode cover

MJGMB #71: Betting the Upcoming Season with Jamieson Welsh

Jul 27, 202349 minSeason 2Ep. 31
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Episode description

The guys were pleased to be joined by expert sports bettor and NBA analyst Jamieson Welsh on the latest episode. The trio discussed betting the upcoming season, offseason moves and more! 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

You hear that.

Speaker 2

It's easy to hear us because we're not an NBA con anymore, and that means summer league has wrapped up and teams are pretty much set barring any late summer deals.

Speaker 1

So let's take a look forward and discuss, you know, some potential betting strategies because Jack.

Speaker 2

And I we were in Vegas and we were kind of checking out the betting odds and we were wondering how do we win? And we're gonna do that with NBA analysts and expert sports Better Jamison Welsh on today's episode.

Speaker 1

I'm Miles Gray and I'm Jack O'Brien and this.

Speaker 2

Is well, okay, three years Davis here you mb.

Speaker 1

Driving spinning Curry a three punter.

Speaker 3

Stop Curry from town again?

Speaker 4

Be honest the okay got a shot time?

Speaker 1

Don't you get to be honest?

Speaker 2

Jamison Welsh, you've provided NB analysis for ESPN, Fox Sports Radio.

Speaker 1

Uh and for the past.

Speaker 2

Decade you've been you know, your respected sports better.

Speaker 1

You're originally from southern California, now in Vegas. How are you? And welcome to the show man.

Speaker 4

I'm doing well, fellas. Thanks for the great intro.

Speaker 5

It's a lot of energy I love it makes for like I'm in the room at y'all, so it's definitely good to hear.

Speaker 4

But no, man, it's it's hot.

Speaker 5

Like it just got hot in Vegas a week before summer lea, like right when July came. It got hot before, like the longest streak of under one hundred degree days, and now it's extremely hot to where you don't want to do much outside, to be inside of a.

Speaker 4

Building and with on. But it's other than the heat. We're all good.

Speaker 3

Yeah, yeah, And why has bettor spelled that way b E T T O R instead of e R? Is it just to prevent it from being like better, like the real thing?

Speaker 4

That's a great question.

Speaker 3

I like it. It's like playwright, where like playwright is so pretentious that they like spell it like in the weirdest way, like w R I.

Speaker 1

G h T Yeah, call yourself better or roar or.

Speaker 3

Like you're a New Zealand prison saying that auror.

Speaker 1

Jamisoner, did you get Do you check out any of the Summer League? Oh?

Speaker 4

Yes, I have to.

Speaker 5

I mean it's one of the things that I mean, being here since four I've literally seen Summer League be in the small gym being a thing that people didn't know about to be a worldwide production. Like literally ESPN came in twenty seventeen and changed everything. But here's the thing people don't realize. It wasn't twenty seventeen when things changed. It was the wigginsbry Parker showdown game about ten years ago. Is when everything changed. That was literally the beginning. Because

they put that game in the small gym. The fire marshall had to come in and come, hey, no more people in and the press row was so bad that the electric the sockets didn't have power in them.

Speaker 4

That's how bad. Well, that's why.

Speaker 3

It started, like a nb A game in the nineteen fifties and they were like playing in dress shoes.

Speaker 1

Put more coal in the generator. Yeah, it was.

Speaker 5

It was so bad that the literally people if they went to the bathroom, they couldn't come back in.

Speaker 4

That's how bad it was. Oh wow.

Speaker 5

But the funniest part of that whole game is people finally got to see Janna Fontonakupo and now you know he's a generational player, one of the best players of our lifetime and all that.

Speaker 4

At the time, he was an afterthought.

Speaker 5

It was Wiggins and Jerry Parker were one and two and they were supposed to be the future of the league. And Giannis was playing in year two before he went to Greece to go players for his national team. Uh for the summer So yeah, very very fun fact that's when something took off. Everything else from there has been extra. But it's always a great time when people come to Vegas for NBA.

Speaker 4

A lot different people, a lot of her connections. It's always a good time.

Speaker 3

Have you ever made a bet based on how someone looked at summer league? Like on like do you do NBA futures like results? Like do you do you gamble on who's gonna win the title in the offseason?

Speaker 5

I gamble a lot, all right, So let me just say I can't remember. For station casinos, I go to Red Rock. It's close to where I live, so out with the Red Rock Casino. They do good work, a lot of good people there. I've been a lot, been a chairman for over ten years there. It's one of those things to where if you see something you kind of just notated saying, hmmm, interesting.

Speaker 4

Let's take note of that.

Speaker 5

When it comes to certain rookies like Donovan Mitchell had a very good Summer League in twenty seventeen. However, no one was talking about him because of the classics are part of We were talking about Lonzo Ball, Jason Tatum, all those players, but Dominald Mitchell was just killing and he was playing on the Jazz and no one's paying attention to the Jazz. Like certain things, you just kind of notate and see what's what. But at a lot of times in Summer League, you gotta take some money

for what it is. Summer League it favor of certain type of players rather than others, so you have to kind of understand that as well.

Speaker 3

Yeah, like I said, I'm an expert gambler. Or I made one bet on the floor at the casino when we were in Vegas weeks ago when we were there for Summer League, because this is coming out in the future, and I put twenty forty dollars I think on the eleven to one part of the roulette table, and I thought that meant like if the ball lands in numbers eleven to one, and it actually meant if it did zero or double zero. But it hit and I didn't

realize it. I was like, wait, so I'm why why is he giving me those chips?

Speaker 1

That's a lot of chips.

Speaker 3

And then I took I took that money and I put one hundred dollars of it on the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the title based on chat looking good.

Speaker 1

In this summer league, in the summer league only.

Speaker 5

So for most people out there, you guys don't understand, this is normally the downtime of the betting world because right this balls on All Star break, NBA is not you know, is finished. W n b A has their All Star Break this week. Uh NFL as it started. Yet this is normally the time where most professional betters going vacation because bet on.

Speaker 4

So that is very very well inness check behavior.

Speaker 5

If you're better league, you might need to send a wellness check just to make sure everything's okay over there.

Speaker 3

Yeah, you mean, just.

Speaker 4

They do the thing.

Speaker 5

The money is real, like you can put a parlay together. If you win your ticket, you're good. And some people who literally bet some league, they look at all the numbers and everything and they bet some league. I don't know why they do it, but they do it. And it's uh, it's interesting to say the.

Speaker 3

Least so savvy sharp how would you describe what I did there with the Okaye bet based.

Speaker 5

Here's the bigges issue you're gonna have. If they decide to pull their good players, you're screwed. Like you're looking on the surface and they say they come out, you know, Wednesday or Thursday, say oh chat, we've skin enough, We're good.

Speaker 3

I'm sorry, I'm talking about winning the NBA Championship this year.

Speaker 1

Oh yeah, yeah, I think this went over your head.

Speaker 4

Jameson.

Speaker 3

Yeah, this next level, I'm going big baby, Jack?

Speaker 1

Is Jack is playing forty chips out here?

Speaker 5

You know anything that we don't know, Like, is there a trade that Jalen Brown like, like, what's going on? Is there's something that like, I'm yeah, that's.

Speaker 1

Jack telling them what you said.

Speaker 3

You just like, what's really cool? Two games in the summer league. And in those two summer league games, and if they just let him continue to play against summer league players, I think he's going to league.

Speaker 4

In the chip. Let me get this straight man. Make sure.

Speaker 5

First, and I want to thank you for donating to the Clark County.

Speaker 1

And you keep the parks looking great, you keep the roads.

Speaker 4

You know there's construction everywhere.

Speaker 1

Yeah, the grass is green because of that bet.

Speaker 4

We don't have a lot of grass here, there's a lot of rocks, but you do have it.

Speaker 3

I have.

Speaker 2

I've always been blown away by how green the grass is and some of the parks in Las Vegas, considering how hot it is golf course.

Speaker 4

Yeah, might be fake official.

Speaker 1

Oh yeah, oh yeah yeah.

Speaker 3

So you agree that it was a smart bet. We can move on from there. So you have made some bets based on Summer League, but like you're probably more over under than like to win the title, right, Like over underwins.

Speaker 5

Overunder wins player awards, just overall growth. Like for instance, when the Warriors were like undefeated for like a year and change. In Summer League, you can kind of see like, hey, they're building something here.

Speaker 4

Now.

Speaker 5

I'm not gonna say I had twenty five to one back til I was the fourteen, because I didn't, but you can see them building something.

Speaker 4

I think that's the key for Summer League is if a team is.

Speaker 5

Playing guys they drafted and guys that are in rotation, you can see them building towards something.

Speaker 4

I think that's huge.

Speaker 5

I think that's key for that particular situation in my opinion. Anyway, with that being said, You never want to get who caught up with that because we have seen good Summer League teams and you know they end up in a lottery the next year. So you don't want to get too far ahead of yourselves. But at the same time, it can be a promina things to come.

Speaker 3

Yeah. So I mean when by analysis after the first one was this guy stinks, this guy stinks.

Speaker 1

I'm out.

Speaker 3

Yeah, it looks like the second game he's on ice skates out there. I got on my.

Speaker 1

Face after that second game.

Speaker 3

But it turned yeah, it turns out he looks pretty pretty good. So uh and then and then Scoot feels like he's just already he's ready to be a serious player in the league. Anything else or do you agree with those anything else jumping out of you?

Speaker 4

So I live out here.

Speaker 5

I was able to see when Byana and Scoop like each other twice back in October, so I was going to see them a little. It was a little different, you know, playing in that kind of setting versus this. Obviously I knew when Bianna was gonna be okay and the second game, but the first game is always gonna be jitters, It's gonna be what's gonna be uh, Scoop was gonna have gonna be more comfortable because his role is different, Like when Maya is something we've never seen before.

We've never seen a seven to five guy move like this, and I think just everything was kind of a cluster because.

Speaker 3

Yeah, his teammates and his coaches also, I haven't seen that exactly how many.

Speaker 5

People have, right, right, like seeing a seven five guy bring up the ball and run in motion off it Like it's kind of odd that like that was going on and he wasn't like having a problem doing it, but yeah, it was weird. But the second game obviously a lot more comfortable, and the numbers suggested.

Speaker 4

But yeah, the initial reaction was wild.

Speaker 5

Because people are like a stay in France, he's a bus blah blah blah.

Speaker 2

I love the energy of the webs like that, Like he should have just stayed.

Speaker 1

Man, Yeah, no point in even trying out here.

Speaker 3

Yeah, Jabari Smith Junior might be in pole position for the tournament MVP if he decides to keep playing. It seems like he wants to keep playing anyone else jumping out to you, Well.

Speaker 4

So here's the thing.

Speaker 5

Like when it comes to Summer League, the Lakers young guys are playing really well as a unit or really not one like out here is gonna win MVP.

Speaker 4

But they're looking good.

Speaker 5

As you you know, you know, I think Captin's name of the undrafted big looking pretty solid.

Speaker 4

Jay hs is looking good.

Speaker 5

So there's as a collective they look pretty solid as a core. Even look good in the California Summer League as well. There's been hits and misses.

Speaker 4

Along the way. Indiana's team looks really good.

Speaker 5

Like Indiana, they look they look like they shouldn't be here, and that's always a good sign. Like whatever you see a team that has like rotation guys in. So I'll give you another example. Charlotte does not look good and they didn't look good in the in the other summer league either, and that's not a great sign going forward. Now.

Of course, we know the guy that makes everything work there, so it should be better than the regular season, but it's not a good sign when you got roster guys on the team you're getting blown out in every league you're in.

Speaker 3

Yeah, you know, we have to take this opportunity because we rarely have Laker fans on the podcast. Yeah, so you know, with Miles and Jabbari, yeah, you know it is biased.

Speaker 1

There, so wisdom wisdom.

Speaker 3

In terms of the Lakers off season, how are you feeling like I'm hearing living in Los Angeles, hanging out with a couple of Lakers fans, I'm hearing greatest offseason of all time? Question marks just put out there.

Speaker 1

Recent recently, not of all time recent memory. I felt there. I feel for the.

Speaker 3

Lakers or for NBA basketball.

Speaker 5

I think both because if you want to have your flagship teams, you know, doing the right things, and their acquisitions and their moves have been the right move. Like, they didn't do anything dumb and trade a bunch of young guys to get an oldest star player that might be disgruntled somewhere else.

Speaker 4

They didn't do that.

Speaker 5

They're like, hey, we had a good run with the roster, we had a little bit short. Let's kind of bring every already back and you know, obtaining flexibility, Like the one thing I think a lot of teams don't understand is being able to be flexible to make a move or two to make yourself be able to improved going forward. Once you lock into that third max guy, there's no flexibility and you're end up stuck and if that, if that big three isn't good enough, then you're not gonna

win anything and you're just wasting time. And we have a Lebron James Anthony Davis team. You don't have any time to waste. Like Lebron's basically a year to year guy. Now he's you know, you're twenty one coming up. You can't you know, be experimenting at this point in time. So they did the right thing and bringing everybody back for the most part while regaining flexible while you know,

keeping flexibility along the roster. They can make moves they choose to do so in the middle of the season or even next summer if they choose to do so.

Speaker 2

Yeah, how do you feel like? You see what you see the moves we've made. You see the people that stayed. We got reeves on a discount.

Speaker 4

Yep.

Speaker 1

How do you now? How are you looking at twenty three, twenty four?

Speaker 5

Now?

Speaker 4

Want to without West?

Speaker 5

They're like there, it's them in Denver and Phoenix are like the top three out West and it's everybody else in my opinion, like those are the three teams that look at the roster, look at the situation, like those are the three you got to give Denver their credit.

Speaker 4

There are the champs.

Speaker 5

They're bringing pretty much everyone back except Bruce Brown, so you got to give them their credit. But what Lakers have done this summer is huge because the continuity is huge.

Speaker 4

That's key. For what they did in the short amount of time last year should be commended.

Speaker 5

But now you're bringing everybody back, everyone should be more cohesive as a unit. They're in good shape and they got deeper. Like I'm really big on Cameradtish. I know he's at his issues and I know basketball Twitter goes fifty to fifty with him.

Speaker 4

But with that being said, I think a guy like that.

Speaker 5

With with Phil being the player development guy, kill any being the player development guy, like there's some there's something there that I believe that could be on tap.

Speaker 3

Yeah, that's that's some deep analysis that I did not know the name of the Lakers player development guy, so.

Speaker 2

Kill Handy, Yeah, I guess it's I guess, like yeah, just like for me, it's like everything on the Lake, I'm like, let's all we talk about sometimes. Yeah, what's his what's his Instagram handle?

Speaker 4

Mister ninety four feet?

Speaker 1

Oh is that what it is?

Speaker 4

Yeah?

Speaker 1

Yeah, okay, yeah, there's like all of its like handles have to do with the yeah, you know, shooting prowess and things like that. But anyway he.

Speaker 3

Can shoot anywhere on the ninety four feet on the on the court. Is that what's implied there or just that you got to bring it all all ninety four feet?

Speaker 1

Yeah, yeah, Yeah, it's up to you. Yeah, you got to bring it. They all count, they all count all ninety four All right.

Speaker 3

Well, let's take a quick break and we'll be right back to dig in a little bit to you know, any any value we see out out there? Uh some more professional batteur talks between three pros. We'll be right past and we're back.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 3

So, I mean, are you already looking at the upcoming season? You got any like interesting crops for us anything?

Speaker 1

Is it foolish to even think about this right now?

Speaker 4

So here's the thing.

Speaker 5

First of all, there's no days off in gambling.

Speaker 1

Off, like get started getting value out there.

Speaker 4

Yeah, like you go. Because here's the thing too.

Speaker 5

You can get a good prop early, like you can find something at the casinos and the odds makers are sleeping on friends. This last year, Mike Brown, when Coach of the Year, was like one hundred to one. Wow, you know what I mean to start like by this time last year one hundred and one.

Speaker 4

You know. So those are things you kind of look at, say hey, you.

Speaker 5

Know, look at the ross, look at the situation, look at other teams in that division or conference, saying hmm, I can see this happening, not just a random bet, but like, hey, there's at least a pathway to it, Like that's the that's the one rule I have when it comes to betting futures or props. Is there a legit pathway for it without a miracle happening, And if you see it, then yeah, let it fly. With that being said, Vegas doesn't have the props that fan duel DraftKings,

the offshore accounts have. Hopefully in the future, we do, but we don't have the same luxury that people around the country have when it gets to being the bag of parlay who wins MVP, even the Player of the Year.

Speaker 4

Already we can't parlay that.

Speaker 5

It's only a single bet, so it's it's not the same as others, but it's still cool. You still can make a little bit of money, but you can't make that huge bag off of a couple of predictions.

Speaker 3

Yeah, one hundred to one is plus ten thousand, because that's what we're I have a hard time with that stuff. It's basically, for every one dollar you bet, you win one hundred dollars in that case, and then plus ten thousand is So Jabari was telling me that, like the professional you know, the odds makers and the casinos one everybody using the like plus minus one, because those are big numbers. And I look at those and the actual literal dollar signs appear in my eyes.

Speaker 1

You're like, oh fifty thousand.

Speaker 3

Yeah, yeah, my tongue on rolls in my mouth. But I just wanted to point out that, like that, Mike Brown, those odds are the same as Oklahoma City Thunder to win the title this year. So you know, so maybe maybe we're speaking too soon about that bet.

Speaker 5

I hope you win, though I hear that I don't hit on anyone's bet. I hope if it comes through, I'll be happy for you.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Speaker 1

Well, I'm really curious, right, So, Like we were looking at.

Speaker 2

The odds right in pre season of last season, and the Nuggets were down at around plus twenty plus eighteen

hundred correct, and we saw where that went. Can you help me understand because like, over the course of the season, every person who like writes about Denver, a lot of people are like they have to be were saying they had to be part of the conversation and weren't like, what what's affecting all this where you know, some people who were like writing about the game are like, keep your eye on that team, but it's not really born out in the odds.

Speaker 3

Yeah, man, Like I feel like I would have totally taken that bet, Like, especially knowing what I know now it's time machine, I totally would have taken.

Speaker 2

It, or some kind of book that had all of the results from future sporting events at my disposal.

Speaker 3

But truly that does feel like great value, like get knowing what we knew about Denver, right, Like what happened? So you took that bet?

Speaker 4

No? I wish I did?

Speaker 5

I wish I Actually the funny part is I advise everyone in Vegas to that the Nuggers were gonna be in the finals. They're gonna play in Milwaukee. That was my prediction. But unfortunately I did not place a bet on at least they were getting off the West. I didn't I didn't do that unfortunately, but.

Speaker 4

So's going to come out the West.

Speaker 2

So so what were you what what factored into your analysis to just to make that prediction.

Speaker 5

So I looked at the West as a whole. Everyone else had they had at least amount of issues. In my eyes, Like Jokic is yok Like he's he plays all the time, he doesn't get hurt.

Speaker 4

You know what you're getting fro him?

Speaker 5

You're at least winning forty five games gets him alone. You're getting Jamal Murray back thought that he always.

Speaker 4

I was always high on Jamal Murray.

Speaker 5

So I always thought that, hey, they're getting basically an All star type of guy. Back to what forty five games guarantees you they're gonna be good. I thought the rest of the West had a lot of questions. Thought the Clippers had questions. The Warriors were gonna have questions because they're a older team coming off a long season, and obviously we saw them We're down as the season went on. The Lakers were gonna have issues because they are two best guys can hurt a lot. Just everyone

in the West had a lot of issues. I never really trusted Memphis Phoenix. You know, you know, obviously this was for the A training for KD. The way they went out last year, you knew they were never gonna be back as a whole again. You knew that was over. That rule was never gonna be the same. So everyone out West had a lot of issues, and I felt like didn't have the least amount of issues. So that

was the process behind it. And also, like I thought, was the best player in the conference, so him with a healthy squad, take your chances.

Speaker 1

That's very reasonable.

Speaker 3

The odds heading into last season, Celtic's plus five hundred, the favorite Golden State, and I mean they were in the finals together the previous seasons, that that makes sense. Milwaukee, Brooklyn Clippers, which makes sense, Phoenix Suns, seventy six Ers, Miami Heat, but they like so the Heat were favored

over them, over over the Nuggets. And then you get to Denver, and then Denver was on the same footing with the Lakers and pretty close to like the Grizzlies and the Mavericks, right right, which is yeah, yeah, that's pretty wild. That's all.

Speaker 5

No One talked about the Nuggets, No one on the no one in the mainstream media talk about the Nuggets. Everything was about the glamour teams or the glamber players and Jokic. Before this season, people really didn't talk about he doesn't do much an off season. He goes home like there's no tmz of Yo kicch like like he's not out there fighting people in the streets.

Speaker 4

Like he literally goes home and rides horse's swims.

Speaker 3

Yeah, get horses, but yeah, there you go.

Speaker 2

The only thing I've saw a clip of him on a kayaking trip was the most I've seen in the off season so far, and people were like mobbing him on a river. But yeah, he seems to be He seems to be pretty focused in the offseason.

Speaker 3

Is there any team heading into this season you feel like is similarly flying under the radar?

Speaker 5

So if this is a very big if we like that if Zion gets this stuff together in New Orleans, like that would be the one where it's like, hey, if he stays healthy and Brent Ingham stays healthy, with the supporting cast that they have, they could be the team that can surprise people and make a run. That would be the because they have a lot of talent, it just it never you know, really clicks, Like that's the issue that they.

Speaker 4

Do have good shooting.

Speaker 5

They do have some guys that can make plays, like Herb Jones is a very good defender. With that being said, though, it's just hard to believe in Zion staying healthy, believing in brandon Ingram saying healthy for a long period of time. And it's not that they both get hurt. They both get hurt missed like six weeks, like they missed a few days, Like they're out for multiple pay periods, and if you're out for multiple pay periods, it's not gonna

end well for you. So that's my only concern. But if I had to put a lot a long shot, it would be the Pelicans.

Speaker 3

Yeah, that's interesting I had when we went into the sports book because I didn't know what you were talking about, the thing about how they weren't taking bets on like

props on like who would win each thing. My intention was to bet on Zion for most improved because he's like way down there, like not not even in the conversation, but like if he just stays healthy and does what we know he can do and is like you know, in the conversation, like top five MVP conversation, like like Jaw a couple years back or last year when he was suddenly like so good and like kind of what people thought he could be, and he was like up

there near MVP conversation. I feel like that could happen for Zion if he just like stays healthy. Obviously big if, but that feels like there's some value there because I think some of the off court stories have maybe deflated his value a little bit.

Speaker 5

Oh absolutely, And also was Zion's been an All Star times alrighty, So I don't know if he can win most improve Like, I don't know if you would get voted for. It doesn't quite make it doesn't make sense in a sense. I don't see him winning that one. I don't know if they would give him that based off his resume.

Speaker 3

Yeah, Like I said, it was a smart bet that I was thinking of making.

Speaker 2

Jack's driving back to Vegas, He's like, can I can I switch this one out?

Speaker 3

Can I? I'd like to get a return where's the returns window?

Speaker 2

Yeah?

Speaker 4

Come back player? If they have comeback player that I think you're good.

Speaker 2

Though, right, So I mean who And again, like when you're looking at individual futures and things like that, what what sort of like the analysis that you take for example, like with Most Improved right now. Obviously Jack had a genius sort of four D chess idea with Zion, if you.

Speaker 1

Had to go more traditional, how are you looking at it?

Speaker 5

So it's really about opportunity and also contract situation, like, so are you gonna be playing a lot of minutes?

Speaker 4

What's your contract looking like? Are you playing for a contract? You know?

Speaker 5

Are you in a contract year? There's a lot of things I look into it. So, for instance, in this situation, a guy that super talented, but as he plays on a team that does weird things with young players, John think, come on, good, he's like fifty five to one right now on DraftKings, and he's for Most Improved. We know he's talented, he's showing flashes, but this year they're actually gonna have to play him, Like, they're gonna have to

play him no matter what. This way the roster is, the way the size is lined up, They're gonna have to play him. I do believe that even though Chris Paul's a little older in the tooth, having a guy like that being able to spoon feed him certain assist and get him going early and often, I think that will help. But I just think that him playing getting guarantee twenty five minutes a night will help out a lot.

Speaker 4

Because they're an older team, they need young athletic legs.

Speaker 5

We saw that in the playoffs, like Sacramento literally ran them off the court at times.

Speaker 4

So John the kamonga fifty five to one.

Speaker 5

I think it was a very good play for those out there looking for a long shot type of type of action.

Speaker 1

Interesting, Okay, So I I think I messed up my bets. Really.

Speaker 3

I was looking at whether, like the Warriors have really long odds for because that that feels like a thing where people might be off off the scent a little bit because of what the Lakers did to them. But I think the Chris Paul signing was too splashy in there, you know, in the top ten NBA Championship odds. So yeah, I mean looking back at the one thing that like, like, we were looking at the biggest preseason underdogs to win

the title, and it's pretty interesting. There's some teams on there that I wouldn't have expected, Like the seven eight Celtics were ten to one underdogs. Their win loss over under was forty nine point five. This was the first

year of the Big Three. I don't know if people if maybe this was before, but like that that trade happened before the season, so it's not like but they ended up going sixty six and sixteen, and despite some like you know, seven round series in the earlier rounds, they should have been the favorite, like based on what the team looked like together, got a couple of Spurs teams in there, Houston Rockets when they first won it, Pistons, the Raptors before when they had Kawhi were big underdogs,

the Mavericks the year that they won obviously, I think they were big underdogs heading into the playoffs, but the twenty fourteen twenty fifteen Golden State Warriors were the biggest underdog in NBA history preseason underdog because there's some of it that was just like, you can't win shooting threes. You can't win a title shooting threes, Like you need to be able to like bully ball at it in there. But also they were just a team that we had seen not be able to do it a couple of times.

But the reason they couldn't do it is they were young and they just you know, they hadn't put it together. But that's instructive to me. I guess the Nuggets from this past season would have been the third or fourth. They would have been righted with the Raptors in terms of long shot odds, biggest long shots to win the title. And that one feels crazy to me. That one feels like we should have known heading into this season. But that might just be recency bias.

Speaker 5

It's tough because like, we don't well sometimes I say we, but the national media doesn't cover the Nuggets like that. If the Nuggets played in a bigger city, then yeah, it would the odd would not have been that high and there would have been a lot more tension on them. But the Nuggets playing the Mountain time zone, unfortunately, no one says about the Mountain time zone. It sucks, it's unfortunate, but it goes Eastern time zone Central, and then from

the Mountain time zone. Everybody either watching games or getting ready for the West Coast games. No one here's for that Denver, Utah. You know, stretch again like it's unfortunately sucks, it really does, but people are getting ready for the Lakers, Warriors, Clippers sons that when they're on the right time zone to start, the Mountain time longing just gets looked over and it's just what it is, unfortunately.

Speaker 2

So I mean like it's just interesting that like because of just sort of those factors that suddenly the odds can be favorable because just purely all of the attention is going the other way. So in a way, like it just it seems like something worth noting in that sense that sometimes those odds are better purely because that all of our attention just goes on like these major markets on the coasts.

Speaker 5

Oh absolutely, and it goes the other way around too. You're not going to see favorable Laker lines with anything because they don't want to take a loss.

Speaker 4

Like they don't want you know, they have good odds.

Speaker 5

The Lakers for it better because if the ad hits, it's a bad day for casino. Seems are business as well, they have to make smart decisions.

Speaker 4

So you're not going to.

Speaker 5

See favorable odds on Laker futures when they have a good team, or Nick futures when they have a good team, just not because the amount of people who would bet it, and if it does hit, it becomes rough. I live in Vegas, So the Golden Knights won the title this Year's not hurt by that. That's just how it goes.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Yeah, like betting markets are a lot closer to the stock market than I realized, in the sense that like the people placing the bets really end up setting the odds. Like obviously the book makers start like put put the starting point where it is, but then it goes up and down based on like how much money is being wagered, so that they you know, even it

out so that it's as close as possible. But I was always you know, one of those people who was like, man, you look at like the over under and the line, and you know, it's so often it's like within a half a point, and you're like, how are these guys so smart? And it's like, well, it's actually like the wisdom of the crowds, like driving driving that, and just you know, yeah, it's pretty interesting.

Speaker 2

So anything to keep an eye on, because again I'm like I'm sentimental part of me, like I don't like to bet on the Lakers because that's my team and every time I've done so in the past, it's blown up in my face.

Speaker 1

And again to your point about the odds.

Speaker 2

Like who's someone that you feel is kind of in that sort of sweet spot in terms of like not quite getting enough attention. But at the same time, the odds are slightly favorable from a better's perspective.

Speaker 5

Just in general or like a team wise, like in terms of winning it all.

Speaker 2

Yeah, like in terms of winning at all, because I'm just looking at all these odds, like every time it's doing math, I'm like, Okay, how much can I make off? That obviously not the best motivation when placing a bet, but I'm just by using that sort of logic and not getting my own sentimental attachment involved.

Speaker 1

Objectively, what like.

Speaker 2

Do you see anything here where there's like a combination of the odds being good and a lack of national attention or maybe lack of mainstream media narrative that makes it an attractive bet.

Speaker 5

The odds aren't great, But with that being said, it Miami gets Dame, they got action, Like they're at nine to one. If they do get Dame, they have three All Star type of players, and they've been close, alrighty, Like they've been close twice, Like you know, they've had their moments in two final series. If they get another All Star and they're able to tweak their rosters, like we know how they do they have a good shots anybody like that trade finally goes through sometime this summer.

Speaker 4

I would say Miami at nine.

Speaker 5

To one's probably the best bet because we know how they are out east. You're adding another guy that can create and shoot from long distance and open with the floor for the other guys. That would be the team I would feel comfortable in taking a shot with. I don't trust Philly, don't trust the Clippers.

Speaker 3

What do you trust Philly Man Steady Rock in the playoffs? You can trust them to go out in the second round every year without a doubt that thing? Do they take outs on that?

Speaker 4

Like?

Speaker 3

Has there ever been worse odds? Though? I feel like you could. You could win five dollars on a thousand dollars bet if you bet Philly going out in the second round, Right, that's.

Speaker 4

Wild, That is true. It's actually true though.

Speaker 5

But you can bet it on before the series starts, so they're playing somebody in their favored and you feel that they're not gonna win and you can make some money.

Speaker 4

Yeah.

Speaker 3

The other team I took is a Phoenix Suns. I did not take it because I thought there's good value there. I took it because I am interested in them. I root for Frank Vogel and I root for KD always and so gives me an extra incentive to kind of be be watching them. But I feel like there's probably bad value on that one because they've gotten so much media attention.

Speaker 5

Right, it's not that bad, Like it's it's six and a half to one pretty good money. Like if you can make six to fifty off one hundred bucks, you're doing pretty good. Like that's not bad. It's just more of you think about the play itself. You think about

can all the guys stay healthy? And can they can that roster get a little bit better between now and April, Like those are two things that you kind of think about because right now the roster you got three guys that are really high paid and a bunch of minimum guys.

Speaker 4

And I don't know if that works in twenty twenty three.

Speaker 5

But they can tweak the stuff, and they can tweak the rosters a little bit more. They may have a shot because they played Denver the toughest, Like they gave Denver the toughest runout of anybody in the postseason. So if they're that close, who knows. And that's not a bad bet. I actually like that bet. I have health, like that's my thing of the health is the biggest.

Speaker 3

Issue that means so much. You've made my day. And then in terms of player props, like award props Rookie of the Year when Biama is minus two hundred, meaning you have to bet two hundred dollars to win one hundred, like he's nailed on Favorite Scoot plus three fifty. You bet one hundred, you win three fifty. Chet went, you bet one hundred U five hundred. I like the Chet money. I think he looks like he's ready to do some

things and in a good situation. But I feel like it's going to be Scooter Wembyama.

Speaker 4

It's probably gonna be Wimby.

Speaker 5

As long as he stays healthy and plays enough games, it's going to be him. However, if he does not win it, it probably goes to Scoop because in Portland he's gonna be the guy that give the ball to right away and for the game he plays and people like to see.

Speaker 4

He's gonna put up more stuff.

Speaker 5

Now we have a good season, but highlights and the production in the usage, we're all gonna favorite Scoot unfortunately when it comes to the awards, and Scoot would probably win it if Wimby doesn't.

Speaker 1

So I put three thousand dollars down on Grady Dick winning.

Speaker 4

Again. We appreciate the donation and the contribution to the park.

Speaker 2

But just just think though, okay, so okay, So see that guy's neck, man, the visible his vision, just.

Speaker 1

The straight neck prowess and the sequence. Suit.

Speaker 2

I don't know now that I'm hearing the way a professional talks about it, maybe I have made a mistake a.

Speaker 4

Lot of money, like you could have spread that around like.

Speaker 1

Look see and I'm still learning. I'm still learning, Jameson, you know what I mean.

Speaker 4

I understand.

Speaker 2

H Can I stay with you man when I'm in town because I might I might need a place to just kind of lay.

Speaker 4

Look, you might, you may, you know, you may have a night. You make it a night.

Speaker 3

Here's another hair brand. Long odds bet that I kind of really like defensive player of the year. If wembin Ama is your rookie of the year, as you say he is, he is going to block so many shots. But if he's blocking three to four shots a game, like, won't he be in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year.

Speaker 4

I'll do you one better.

Speaker 5

If he does all that and the numbers back it up, and like the Spurs holding teams like one hundred and three points a game or something like that, he will be in the conversation for.

Speaker 4

The award, if not winning it.

Speaker 5

Yeah, getting thirty five to one on that, that's worth a flyer, like.

Speaker 3

Thank you, I got one. I got one.

Speaker 5

You make that bet and just make it and whatever happens happens, because you know there's a pathway too. Because here's the thing, we all know how these things go. Once momentium starts, you can't really stop it. Five shots a game and changing another five that's gonna get talked about every day while the season is going on.

Speaker 4

And the Spurs are gonna be better.

Speaker 5

I'm not sure they're gonna be a playoff fro nothing like that, but they're gonna be at least better than not gonna.

Speaker 4

Be a walkover that that play has action.

Speaker 5

I'd rather here's the thing, I'd rather bet bet that at thirty five to one, then bet go Bear or Anthony Davis at their odds, just because if you're gonna if you're gonna put put a features bound something. Make it worthwhile, Like make it worth it if you hit it, make it worth like, hey, I just came up thirty five hundred bucks.

Speaker 4

That's where I'm at with it.

Speaker 2

That's why I'm at with Grady dick Man. Exactly, you stole it right out of my mouth, man, exactly. Gotta make it worth it, Gotta make it worth it.

Speaker 4

There.

Speaker 3

But he does, like you in his quote unquote bad game, Like he just changes every like just anything anyone's doing on offense when he when he's on defense, like the shots. And maybe this was he was playing Charlotte in that game, so maybe they're just like shooting with their eyes closed or something, and that's why open.

Speaker 5

Like I saw James bot Night shoot with all eyes open and it was not good, right, you know it was Brandon Miller as well, has been rough this summer. They were shooting all eyes open. It's just what it was. But the one thing that did stand out is they did not attempt to go to the basket.

Speaker 4

Noight, that was the thing.

Speaker 5

So it was like, oh, so Wimmen's having a bad game, but he's shutting everything down defensively, so it's not really a bad game.

Speaker 4

He's just struck in offensively.

Speaker 5

That's probably Oh, if the player of the year has action, because I bet you what, by the time the season starts, that never will be close to twenty to one, if not lower, it will not be at thirty five to one. Come out late October.

Speaker 3

Yeah, and he you know, like I feel like he will get dunked on quite a few times.

Speaker 4

Yes, don't have.

Speaker 3

The thing that like drives this a lot of the time is like the analytics and you know, defensive analytics and like what people are shooting with him on the court or with him in the in their region when they're when they're taking a shot, and like that feels like it's going to be a problem for other for anybody going up against him. So love it. Love that. Bet I am a professional beteur. Y'all have heard it.

Speaker 1

And I'm better.

Speaker 2

Call me please if somebody at the casino can help me get a refund for this, because I'm confident in it.

Speaker 1

That's that's the only thing.

Speaker 2

All right, Let's take a quick break and we're going to be right back to close this out with the rapid.

Speaker 1

Fire round of questioning after this.

Speaker 2

And we're back and guess what Jamison, you have wandered into the fastest question and answer sec in an all podcasting history. Okay, shoot family questioning. Oh yeah, Now what we're gonna do. We're gonna ask you a question. Just give us the answer that first pops into your mind. Just send it right back. Don't expand don't give us a bunch of explanations.

Speaker 1

You know what I mean.

Speaker 2

And if we start rambling on, you better stop us. Okay, you know, because this is on you to help out right now. I got you, Okay, I like that if you're in, so.

Speaker 1

Are we, Jack Big.

Speaker 3

Shooting alley is a phrase. I thought it was like, what, you know, what they're talking about in like an action movie. You're like going into a place where everyone's like gonna be able to shoot at you from both sides.

Speaker 1

You said, shooting alley, shooting a bottleneck.

Speaker 3

Nah, that's not it anyways. Uh, you know, tune in three months from now when I when I think of.

Speaker 2

It, aspire is what is what Jabar said.

Speaker 1

Anyway, let's get into it, Brian, start the clock. I know it is called a kill zone.

Speaker 2

There's another thing that people say, if you wonder, that's from like World War One, trench warfare.

Speaker 1

You know what I mean. It's a really good term. Anyway.

Speaker 2

See and Jamison, that is an example where you can come in and be like, hey, let's get on with this, because now we're ranting about World War one trench warfare.

Speaker 3

Shooting gallery, isn't it?

Speaker 1

But okay, corral Jabari's asking.

Speaker 3

No, no, no, no, it's a it's a different phrase.

Speaker 1

You've walked into the.

Speaker 3

You've wandered into a bad situation. Sorry, that is what you were thinking of. I know what a shooting gallery is.

Speaker 1

But anyway, you're going first? Or am I going first?

Speaker 3

You can go first, all right?

Speaker 2

Uh, Jamison, we're talking about teams we want to cover in the off season.

Speaker 1

Obviously going to talk about Spurs the Spurs, but.

Speaker 2

Also we want to figure out who else we want to add to this list or remove from this list. We got Spurs, we got Oka see Magic, Suns, Blazers, Mavericks.

Speaker 1

What are you doing to that you're adding or taking off from that list?

Speaker 3

We had rockets, we removed them.

Speaker 1

We removed rockets.

Speaker 5

Yeah, so I think the rocket should be added because they all lost them.

Speaker 4

Oh wow, they got a lot of stuff.

Speaker 5

It's a lot of a lot of characters, a lot of players, a lot of just storylines.

Speaker 4

Like, I think you're not gonna have a dull moment there.

Speaker 5

They may not be good, but you have a lot of things going on, and you have a coach that is a pretty good coach that is there for a reason that he you know, lost his job at other places for a reason. I think there's a lot to cover there, So you would never have a dull moment. I think would be the team I kind of like, you know, a race, because I don't think Dallas is gonna be thank you.

Speaker 3

I was waiting for someone to say that.

Speaker 5

Different reasons and or they can kind of go away to they just pay Germany Grant a bunch of money, so I would, Yeah, I would go away.

Speaker 3

I got a pitch for a new team, the Pacers. Yes, yes, I feel like the Pacers are interesting.

Speaker 5

Very very now Haliburg gotta stay healthy, but yes, I'm with that.

Speaker 3

Yeah, all right, we'll take that. So we we've got a updated list and we are in the off seasons, so it would be about the time that we'd start covering these teams if we were men of our word, yes, but they would have to be men of our word Yeah, which TVD No, no one's ever accused us of this.

Speaker 1

Being men of our word.

Speaker 3

Yes. If you could have any player's skill set for a day, can be on the court off the court. Who are you choosing and what skill set is it?

Speaker 5

Uh? Kevin Durant and his Twitter personality, he doesn't care, he doesn't care. Why he'd be the guy like Katie would be the guy?

Speaker 1

Okay, okay, okay, who okay?

Speaker 2

Ultimate peak? Who is who is the ultimate peak? In their prime? Is it prime?

Speaker 4

Shack?

Speaker 3

Prime?

Speaker 1

Will prime?

Speaker 5

Koreem m hm two thousand? Shack is the scariest player I've ever seen. I'm thirty seven, so like that was the sky I've never seen. We've never seen anything like that. Yeah, there's nothing you can do about that. By Shack's the only guy to where his flaw didn't matter, law didn't matter. Like everyone else, flaw end up part of them one one way or another in their Preaker prime. He's the only guy where they're flawed, it didn't matter. They still repeat it with the flaw yet.

Speaker 3

Right, man? I really want to watch more old school Kareem because he kind of had Wemby like stature and build, and that's like when watching Wemby has made me interested in old school Kareem. Yes, if he if he could to develop like a skyhook type situation, we'd all be in trouble. The show would be in trouble because nobody everyone would just be like, oh, the league's over.

Speaker 4

Yeah. I think it gets worse.

Speaker 5

I think when he develops the three and I think it gets way worse for everyone.

Speaker 3

I mean it's already it's already there in some games.

Speaker 1

Yeah, and Jamison, we got to keep this going, man, I'm sorry.

Speaker 2

You got paid it in right there. You had to step up, man, I'm sorry. You know, we got to keep this going. We got yeah, yeah, Jack is it me?

Speaker 4

Yeah?

Speaker 3

Okay, yeah, yeah, that's right. You asked the you could take two players from all of history to create your Mad Boosti's Edition NBA jam Team. Which two players do you take?

Speaker 4

You know what, give me Barkley and give me Magic.

Speaker 3

Yeah, Magic will be good.

Speaker 1

Okay, Yeah, I see that.

Speaker 4

Now.

Speaker 1

What is it about Magic Johnson?

Speaker 5

I mean he's the best point guard ever and you didn't need to play a certain way with him what you wanted to play. You want to slow down, slow down? If you want to run, you can run. He made everyone better and uh, he's the guy that he literally worked with anyone, Like whatever roster you give him, he would make it work. It wasn't oh I need shooters or oh we're going to play this way, or hey we need a stretch five.

Speaker 4

No, like whoever, whatever he had, he went with and that would be the way.

Speaker 5

So I was like Barkley just because the Barkley is unique and Barkey doesn't get the credit, Like there's a generation people only know Barkley from T and T and half watching NBA games instead of being a dominant player.

Speaker 4

So just do chucking to give him some love.

Speaker 1

Rather than the guy who played Godzilla. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I remember that.

Speaker 3

Ye Shack, by the way, this is a this is a new question. I think for this, I'm going to steph Shack by the way.

Speaker 1

Okay, interesting, Yeah, no, actually I like that.

Speaker 4

I like that.

Speaker 2

Uh can you please rank the following Yardbird spots, Lolos, Gusses and Rosco's.

Speaker 4

Wow, that's a that's a good question.

Speaker 5

Yeah, h Yardbird has the best chicken and waffles I've ever had.

Speaker 4

Okay, ever, and I've had all three of the places.

Speaker 5

You're talking about yeah yardbirds one, Rosco's is two you know it fell off, and Gus is three, and.

Speaker 1

Then Lolo's not in the mix time.

Speaker 5

Sorry, I apologize. Lolos is good. So it depends which lolos you go to. The ones in Phoenix are way better than the ones in Vegas and other cities because they originated in Phoenix. So and Phoenix is right there Roscos, but the one out here it's okay, but it's not the same quite not the same.

Speaker 3

Yeah all right. And finally the ultimate question, Yeah Jack or Miles.

Speaker 4

TI okay? Like push? So talking about betting push.

Speaker 3

Miles is reminding you by h wow?

Speaker 1

Wow?

Speaker 4

Is that?

Speaker 2

And and now okay, so what what what about my greedy dick bet that doesn't move the neither of No, I.

Speaker 3

Mean I just made you money with that one. Think by the way, yeah yeah, yeah, okay, so it's a.

Speaker 4

Line we will move, by the way. But yes, not the push.

Speaker 1

Yeah okay, dealers showing twenty one and we got twenty one.

Speaker 5

Okay, somebody back like if you you push on the bet, you get your money back, So it would be a push.

Speaker 2

Okay, I'll work with that because I definitely made some some terrible bets in my life. Uh, but Jamison Welsh, thank you so much for joining us on Miles of Jack Got Mad Boosty's Where can people basking your wisdom and knowledge online?

Speaker 5

At Twitter? At the Amison I think we'll sell Twitter now by the time this shows. Hopefully, Yeah, might be threads. I think the threads is the same thing I think I have to But yeah, Twitter is always good.

Speaker 4

If you're in Vegas.

Speaker 5

I'm usually at rhetor Rock or other casinos around town, so definitely, Uh, don't be shy and say hi, there you go.

Speaker 3

Damn, that's cool. You can just be like, come to this casino. I'm usually there, right.

Speaker 4

Rock yep, we have a hotel.

Speaker 5

Lastly, lastly, if you're betting, make sure you get some sort of reward for your betting. Make sure you get some sort of comper perse for you betting your own money, whether it's hotels, whether it's free meals, whether it's trip whatever, whatever it is your betting, make sure you get some sort of benefit from it.

Speaker 3

How do you do that?

Speaker 1

We didn't do that. We didn't.

Speaker 3

We'll have to have you back.

Speaker 1

On there you go exactly all right?

Speaker 2

Well, yeah, make sure you follow us on Twitter, follow us on hashtag mad Boosti's b w st i e as.

Speaker 1

You can follow me at Miles of Gray.

Speaker 3

On comment Sure, Brian, Yeah there it is.

Speaker 2

Uh and yeah, just check us out, check out all the links and stuff for show links, updates, et cetera. That's gonna do it for this week, and we're gonna be right back at it on the next one.

Speaker 3

Bye bye,

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