¶ Intro / Opening
🎵 Music
The telegraph.
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¶ Introduction to Election Polling
48 hours until the local elections, but the verdict on Keir Starmer is already in, and it's devastating. People hate him.
Labour and the Tories face wipeout on Thursday and those voting for reform and the Greens say they will never, ever go back to their old parties.
Welcome to the Daily Tea with me, Tim Stanley.
And me, Camilla Tominy.
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Tim, we're back on terra firma. We're no longer on the road. Are you all right? Have you managed to find your whatever it's called, your non road show legs?
Yeah, that's fine. I'm v I'm very happy to be back at home. How was your bank holiday?
Wow.
That's how I spend my free time.
Okay.
Yeah. I went to Cambridge to interview Doctor James Orr. Yes. It was written up in the paper, and they put the photo on the front. They did loads of photos of James, and then just for one, just To be nice, they did a photo of me with my dog Bertie and James, and that's the photo they used. If I had known, I'd have shaved and he would have had a brush. You both really looked bad.
Shave the dog and brush yourself. I quite like you looking a little rugged.
Yeah.
Yeah, it's like now we've entered this new era of your broadcasting career. Yes. It's like Tim Stanley with An Afternoon Shadow. There's something there. Oh also judging by some of the fangirling you got last week. Yes. Maybe the public also like you semi bearded. They don't want me semi bearded, I know that.
But I had to I had to kill some time and I walked my dog into Cambridge and I visited my old college, Trinity. And as you know, to go into these colleges you have to walk through the what they call the Porter's Lodge which
I don't hang out in Cambridge colleges as much as you do but
No, but no, I haven't been back for years because I hated the place.
That's right.
So but I was feeling quite nostalgic because it was warm and bright and the pla and it's very beautiful. And we walked into the Porter's Lodge, me and my dog, and I said, Can I walk around the college? I'm a graduate here, actually six years here, like a prison stretch. Um can I walk around and have a look? And he said, No, you can't. Not with that dog. What's wrong with a dog? And he said, Elizabeth I, ban them. And quick as a whip, I said Protestant cow and walked down the road.
No. You're such a Catholic.
But I remembered r I remembered why I hated the place.
Why did you
Petty fogging rules, petty fogging rules. And the the porters are like the starzy. Yes. With both the politics and the porters, it's like living in East Germany.
And you once told me that it just wasn't that fun at times. No. It was all work and no play and even
So natural scientists and mathematicians.
You'd have just been a bit more stupid and gone to Lees University like me. You'd had a well of a time, and you'd have been a very big fish in a very small pond.
And you probably make a lot more money than me now, so
Bum anyway on that bombshell We're gonna talk about some polling, let's not discuss the gender pay divide in this room.
It's very much the wrong way round.
¶ Public Abandons Major Parties
Lee Kane and Scarlett Maguire join us. Scarlett Maguire from Merlin Strategy. Lee Kane from Charles B because you've come up with some super duper polling and indeed focus group Intel ahead of the local elections on Thursday. And we're going to be writing this up. Tony Diver is scribing as we speak and we'll try and put his story as the link in the show notes. But basically the line we wanted to explore with you I think is quite a stark one about the previous electorate
Blue and red sympathies having been completely dashed on the altar of disappointment. And this idea that the people that you spoke to, and you spoke to more than 4,000 at the beginning of last month. basically say that they're never going to vote Tory and Labour again, no matter what happens.
ले
Yeah, I think
We
the Tories and Labour to go to insurgent parties, if you will, of reform and the Greens said uh only one in seven said they would think about returning. The the others no longer see it as an option. I think if you look inside both parties and you know particularly the Conservatives, there's this view that
People will go and they'll see reform and they'll sample it. And the same with the Greens, that these parties will fail and they'll all come back home to the traditional parties. But these voters were telling us that's that's not what they tend to do. They've feel that they've given um both parties uh their trust in their vote time and time again. They've been let down by the fact that they haven't given them the change that they want.
So they are looking elsewhere and I think we've seen now a a large proportion of the electorate permanently abandoning the Conservative Party and the Labour Party, which is obviously going to be a huge change for our for our political
¶ Search for Authentic Change
But are those people permanently signing up to reform or green?
No. And I think that's the thing that's that's quite interesting with it. Whilst you know, while there are some who say that they will stick with Greens and reform.
Others have said that
If you know if they don't deliver that sort of change. that I hope for. I may stop voting. Or importantly, I'll keep looking for a new party. And I think that element's quite interesting because, you know, things like restore, for example, people will start again to flirt and move over that way. And I think
People are very open minded, that they will keep searching for change, they will keep looking for parties that can deliver for them. It's not that these parties are particularly popular in as such. They just think all parties are going to let them down and that they're very open minded to looking for other opportunities.
I I could be very careful when one talks about restore'cause you always get emails. It's like discussing Hamas or Megan.
I can help.
Ha but do people actually know who that is? Do be are people familiar with that party, Scarlett?
N most people are not overly familiar with the party, but there are definitely there's definitely a very small section, but quite a lively section of the electorate that is. Um and they are not, I think, what people think they are actually. So there's an there's an image of them online that anyone voting for a store must be
some sort of online right, anonymous headbanger. And I think they probably do, you know, there are there are some of those around. But actually a lot of them are just again people who um potentially maybe voted reform in twenty twenty four, potentially voted actually for a whole range of other parties. You get people
um, who have seen in focus groups who are voting restore, he voted Labour, who voted Conservatives. It's not just that they're drawing from the reform pool, although I think it's reform that would suffer the most if they continue to do well.
And again, they're just looking for an answer. They think that um reform won't deliver on the promises that it says it will, that they do care about immigration. And they are looking desperately for someone that they think is going to be um sort of authentically deliver.
ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond ond Was that yes, only, you know, thirteen, fourteen percent of people who were voting Reform and Greens say they'd return to Labour and Conservatives if Reform and Greens let them down.
Um a third, you know, said they'd look for something new and that is a huge I think that's going to be a huge driver of potentially further fracturing and change in our electorate. I'm particularly interested in seeing how many people go for independent candidates, for example, because I think we'll also see a rise in
And and what percentage of people would give up on politics if reform or the Greens disappointed them?
Uh, we found that quite a large proportion. So you had about a third of people just under three and ten say they'd stick with reforming Greens, even if they disappointed them. You had only fourteen percent say uh they'd go back to Labour and Conservatives, about one in three say Um they would go elsewhere and then the rest of the public say they would stay at home or not vote, you know, not vote, stay at home, or say don't know, which at the moment was basically a proxy for that anyway. Right.
Wow. So we always used to have an image in this country of your politics was in some way anchored in your class, or perhaps region, if you want to push it out to nationalism. So broadly speaking, working class, your lean labour, middle class, Tory. Um instead it seems we've become what?
Consumers
¶ Anti-Establishment Sentiments Rise
of politics. We're sort of de anchored from that and we're now just f all floating.
Well I think there is an establishment anti establishment axis that you can definitely draw and you see this in terms of some of the similarities between reform and green voters. They are united in their hatred of politicians or political parties of a lot of institutions and in fact mainstream media as well. And they're a lot more distrustful of them than Labour and the Conservatives. But there's also another class element as well, which
Labour suffering from at the moment is not the one that people often think about. But we you can see time and time again in polling, uh, that the Green Party, but Reform Party as well, but the Green Party in particular Um are are sort of their base is increasingly made up of voters who feel like they're suffering the most from the cost of living and they do tend to be from more precarious demographics.
And whereas Labour is increasingly the party of the more comfortably off. And you've seen that with the Conservatives as well, but people won't be surprised to hear that. That's always been the sort of stereotypical image of the Conservative Party or at least for a long time.
Um, but I think there are definitely class fault lines at play. Um, it's just that they're also mixing in with some of these other dynamics that crucially that idea of whether you think that the establishment is working for you or whether you don't, and increasingly the public think like it's not.
Let's just have a listen to some of the things people were saying in your focus groups.
Labour Prime Minister Weak.
I just put weak. Down week as well.
Okay, I would say he's weak and ineffectual. Weak. I had incompetent.
That's the point, Han. Er, first time I'm not lying as I talk about it, mate.
In three word. I didn't even think of three words. He's a liar.
I think we've got a government that do not know how to govern. Every single thing
Thank you.
Promised was a lie. Lee, you used to work for Boris Johnson, so you're very familiar with personality politicians. And I think it's interesting these people are like saying, Never going to vote Tory or Labour again. But what about the individuals leading this these parties? You seem to be painting a picture both of you of this. completely apathetic electorate who have had it up to here with politicians and aren't particularly impressed with any of them.
¶ Starmer's Weakness, Kemi's Appeal
Of the politicians currently leading the main parties, do any of them hold appeal?
So I think firstly the bar is is quite low. When you look you know, when you look all the politicians, people are very sceptical about any of them. I think when we look, you know, Nigel Farage is probably the most divisive. He has certainly, you know, his people in his positive camp, but also there's a lot of sort of negative
Uh Kemi I mean Kiev just such Kiev is the one person who unites the country in the fact that everybody dislikes him. I think weak was the term that came up more than anything else. People said weak, every group All the polls weak, weak, weak. Um but it was it you know, it was all v e and even the credit that he does get for things like, you know, um his position for uh war in Iran, a lot of voters think he made the right call on that and not sort of rowing in behind the Americans.
didn't change people's overall perception that he is a weak prime minister. Um, and across the across the voter divide that he is I've ne I've personally never seen uh the sort of mood and sentiment against a politician. Normally there is some a group, you know, Boris, case in point, a lot of people were viscerally anti Boris, but he had many people that were incredibly supportive of him and, you know, he really identified with.
Kier has none of that. The interesting element around then is when we come to Kemi Badnock and the so called Kemi Bounce that we've sort of heard a lot and you s we see a lot spoken about in in sort of Westminster within the within the Tory party. And it is indeed true that I think Kemi's personal ratings are improving. Broadly, I think the language that we we saw within the focus groups, people were quite positive. She was the most likely to be seen as a leader. She was seen as intelligent.
But interestingly this is having no impact whatsoever on people's perceptions of the Tories Party. People see the Tory party in an environment of change. People see the Tory party as an organization that's for the establishment. That's just you know, that's that's made no progress since the last election.
And I think most troublingly is people don't they're not angry about the Tory party anymore. The last election people were angry. Now they're just they don't they don't even think about the Conservative Party. They see reform as the party most likely to stop Labour. That's where they see their vote should go. If you want an opposition to stop Labour, it's reform.
So while Kemi personally is is is doing okay in terms of her own appeal, she's having absolutely no impact at all on the party and the party's chances, and that is a really difficult position for them to be in.
Scarlett, who do you think people think the establishment are or is?
Okay.
I mean we'd probably give it a little bit.
We did establish it.
Yeah, it's very country suffered enough.
But well but then we have a lot of reform people who listen to this podcast and I don't I think don't think we are the established.
No, it's being slightly flippant. Um they um I think uh that people have an image and they that it's amazing with um they don't say the Uniparty, we didn't hear the word Uniparty in any of the groups, but
When um these voters and there'll be a mix of former Labour and Conservative voters, a lot of them have voted for both those parties, some of them might have been lifelong voters of one or the other. But they will suddenly start talking about these parties now in the same breath and just say we've been let down by not just the last two years, but by the last, you know
At least decade. Um, and they have an idea, this sort of person in Westminster, in SW1, a frontline politician or indeed someone maybe potentially more behind the scenes. who is in a suit and a lanyard and just does not have their interests at heart and hasn't had their interests at heart and has taken them for a bit of a ride.
And it it's quite hard to sort of pin down specifically what that is, but they know it when they see it, or they think they do. Um and that's again, I think that's part of the huge problem for for Keir Starmer is that
Yeah, Lee's Lee's absolutely right. Weak was the word that was used the most. On the more negative end of the spectrum from that it was things like liar, um as well and U turns this idea. But basically I think they look at Keir Starmer Rydyn ni'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd.
So Keir Starmer constantly saying he's working class has never cut through.
I don't think it has and I think, you know, Boris is actually a great example of this. Um, you know, it didn't matter that Boris went to Eton and was very poor, she could still get on with voters. It actually doesn't really matter. Again, I think actually reform might have slightly different
um issues when it comes to class, which is probably a discussion for another time. Um, but i i I don't think voters are actually that bothered about where you came from necessarily. I think it's more your ability to be able to seem as if you would like to spend time with them, that you understand where they're coming from and that you're not looking down your nose at them. And that was something that Boris was able to do, you know, just
No matter what his background was. So actually something interesting is that Jeremy Corbyn had quite a genteel background as well, but he was he was very able to overcome that and talk to people. Some people have it, some people don't. I d I think the voters firmly think Kirstar doesn't, doesn't matter how many times he tells them his dad was a toolmaker or you know whatever.
¶ The Authenticity Gap in Politics
Oh.
I think just just on that, I think it's because you know, we are We are in the age of authenticity in our political class and yes you know, whether people like you or they don't, there's a feeling of is this person authentic? Nigel Farage, people feel is an authentic pol to politician. Boris, even though much of
how he sort of presented himself in politics, you know, it's somewhat some somewhat performative. It was still authentically Boris. You know, I one I remember watching um there was a period during I think it was La European Championship. Keir, a lifelong football fan, was in the in the pub doing a photo shoot with friends and he looked like he'd never been in a pub or watched the football in his life.
Which I find really surprise surprising because this is should be his authentic place. Yeah. Um but he managed to do this incredible thing of looking inauthentic at something he should be authentic at. Where Boris was turned up at the match with a with a England top over his suit. Looking preposterous, but it's authentically Boris, and people just yeah, we know you're not really a football person. You're here cheering on the country, fantastic, not boring.
And I think there's a huge element of that. Do do I feel you're authentic and and and Care really doesn't pass the test?
He doesn't even wear a tie. He's g he's got a sort of centrist dad look, but it doesn't cut through somehow. I ask this because just in the same way that class and politics have become de anchored, I'm interested to see that our understanding of what the establishment is has changed,'cause we've just got rid of the hereditary peers, the kings in America. It's no longer lords, kings, bishops, etc. It is now, as you say, uh the Lanyard class. And I I'm intrigued.
You suggested that perhaps reform and the Greens actually have similar complaints about Britain. They're voting for different people to protest against it, but actually their anger with the way things are is coming from a similar place.
¶ Socialist Economic Shift Emerges
It is coming from a similar place. Immigration is much more a concern for reform voters. It's very, very low down and for green voters, and it tends to be reform voters' number one issue, so that is
something they coalesce a bit more, um, a bit more strongly around. But you're absolutely right. Apart from that they have huge amounts in common, those voters. And it's again, it's this this sense that um the economy is rigged against me, the country is rigged against me, and I've given up on the people that we've had in charge for the past five years, ten years, twenty years, uh they no longer are up to it. We need something that's going to be more radical than that.
This is rather worrying and maybe it's a kind of hangover from the Corvinista era and also of course COVID. There are some quite socialist economic Thoughts emerging even from voters on the right, correct? So you found that two-thirds of those you polled think big business and the rich. should fund public services. It's another stat in there saying that forty one percent say taxes on big business are too low.
This perhaps in part explains the popularity of somebody like Tax the Wealthy Zack Polansky, doesn't it, Lee?
Yes, certainly. There was a there was a a real mood throughout when you sat in the focus groups and it was reflected in the polling that You know, we have incredibly high levels of public spending and and people broadly were relaxed about this and there was a view that this could be um this could be paid for by higher taxes on the wealthy and from business.
that's where the majority of people think we can sort of fix many of our uh economic ills. And and there's a real challenge for for politicians here. in how, you know, when when we're asking them, okay, what areas would you cut? If you accept there's a need for cuts, what areas would you cut? people bro well, they would say cuts. Oh potentially. Yeah, that sounds sensible. When you dig into work and we make these cuts.
That is where we came into resistance. You know, people don't want to see cuts from the public services. They don't want to see, um, you know, they don't want to see any change to their own. They don't want to see lower taxes for themselves. Um, welfare broadly, they're kind of like, yep, we maybe cut welfare, but then what part of it?
Well sorry, so they're okay with
Which is basically the hot the only thing they would cut. Really. Um and net zero is the only other thing they think we can, you know, we can go out and check.
They're okay with this ever spiralling welfare bill.
Well, it's a really interesting question. So on the face of it, again, if you say, Oh, do you think we should have sort of lower taxes and lower well and a smaller welfare state, they'll say yes. And crucially actually a lot of voters who then uh you know, will get into some of the trade-offs they weren't willing to make will come out and say off the bat things like
The country's not working for those who who work anymore. You know, it's just not I work. Why am I not being looked after? I get the sense that the country is looking after people better who do not work. We also tested things like the statistic the government is due to
spend more on welfare than it will take in an income tax. And that was met with sort of shock and slight horror and a confusement about how that could be the case. But again, when you actually then okay, you know, you sort of bearing all these things in mind, then let's look at the welfare budget and let's think about where we can
spend less, um, you know, to make some of these savings. Uh as Lee says, there was, you know, uh pretty actually across the spectrum a lot of support, um, not on your most progressive voters, but a lot of support for cutting welfare for migrants. However, most people thought that was then enough and they wanted to see increase in pensioners. No one thinks the triple lock is even on the table, for example. They just think that Yeah yeah.
Genuinely, I think that's one of the interesting things about the reform announcement that we had a few weeks ago. The vote the these voters, especially pensions, weren't even contemplating that that would be taken away. They just think they see that as the bottom line. But when you start going through all these other things and they go, actually yes.
We do think people abuse the disability systems, but we must make sure that we still look after them. When you're asking them if they are then going to be right now under these conditions comfortable with very wholesale changes, they get very squeamish.
What is a result of the right having failed to make cogent arguments for capitalism over the course of the last fifteen years?
It also it also makes sense of where reform is sitting, which is you know, you you both mentioned people are willing to go after net zero and migrants' benefits.
Yeah.
But they're not willing to touch pensions. Well that's that's essentially where reform has landed, isn't it? Yeah.
And indeed the welfare cat row that they've now said that they won't scrap the cat.
Yes. But I do find conservatives have for decades uh express despair at the public saying, I want lower taxes and higher spending. But actually I find that perfectly rational. Who if asked, like a kid if asked, Do you want more chocolate ice cream? Yes, please. No one says no, I'm thinking about the future. I'm thinking about future generations don't want that ice cream.
Of course they say yes. It's up to politicians to make the argument for why that might not be possible. And the interesting thing about your research is you're showing that people just aren't listening to the politicians'cause they don't trust them as a class.
But they haven't heard those I'm I'm merely making the point. I think we touched on it last week. you know, the Arthur Laffer argument that you cannot tax your way to growth has been absent from all right wing political dialogue since Thatcher. If you want somebody to restate the cake for case for capitalism So c this is why we see and to be fair he's had a pretty bad weekend because his
theories on tax um have been debunked in a in a video. Gary Stevenson, you get the kind of proliferation of these figures, these socialist figures like him and Polansky, who are actually talking abject nonsense. But unfortunately the other side just hasn't made the case. So if you go on social media and you want to find an argument in favor of capitalism, you you have to look for Thatcher. Who else is making that argument on the right? And that's why you see
Look at YouTube clips of dead people to hear someone making Capitalism.
Don't you? And therefore this is why we see these Corbynista tendencies creeping into the economic thinking, even of those poised to vote for reform. That's the only point I'm trying to make here. I think that's quite quite that's quite a
agree, I just don't think they are Corbinistic. I think they're perfectly rational. I think it's human beings just saying more chocolate ice cream.
Free money that workers have to pay for.
¶ Distrust, Growth, and Cost of Living
Part of it I think is that they've given up on concerns of the economy generally. So they're they're they're so focused on their own cost of living. And one of the things that I'm most interested in, which is uh a little bit sort of
potentially galaxy brain for now, but but the cost of living in the economy have become disaggregated in voters' minds. So they see the cost of living separately from the economy. They want their own cost of living fixed. I think especially since COVID, they want this fixed with government intervention. They want their taxes
lowered, they want money off their energy bills, they want rent freezes potentially, they want mortgages you know, money off their mortgages. They want money the governments give them money to help their cost of living. They're very upset about the cost of living. When it comes to question of the economy then, firstly they care less about it.
And and secondly, they're not even sure that if the economy did better they would benefit. That was again one of the questions we continually asked. We were saying, If the economy grew, would you be better off? And a lot of them again, and this is where I think a lot of that anti establishment um
Thought it was really relevant.
I think they've been used to politicians talking about growth. Now obviously we know that's been very stagnant growth, but talking about growth for a really long time. they've not seen or they don't think they've seen the benefits of that at all. And so now when you have politicians as Labour did when they came in, you know, they sort of stop now, but talking about growth and how you get there.
Um the voters switch off'cause I'm not actually interested in growth. I'm interested in my energy bills. What are you gonna do about that?
means. No wonder I hate it when politicians talk about growth. I've no idea what you're talking about. What is it what how does it translate into a material benefit in my life? It
It it reminds me a little bit around the sort of economic debate we were having in twenty sixteen in the referendum.
where you had the remains side talking about we will be poorer if we leave the European Union and come up with all these things, you know, George Osborne's punishment budget, all those things, you know, four thousand pounds, uh, you know, less off a year, all these sorts of A lot of our people, the great people who uh voted uh to leave at that point, a lot of those people looked at life and said, Well,
you'll be poorer. You know, those of the more affluent sort of elite establishment people, you'll be poorer. Yes. My life won't change that much because I'm already poor. So I will roll the dice
Because you don't you don't hire a Romanian au pair, right? Right.
Yeah, yeah.
With Europe, you're not worried about trade barriers. Most people it doesn't affect people.
So there were the there's a general presumption of um you know, uh I it doesn't really make too much of a difference for me, I will roll the dice for something better. And we see that now, people looking desperately for change.
Trust levels.
uh Scott said earlier on trust levels in our political class and in our institutions. is at a troublingly low level, particularly amongst these sort of insurgency parties. There's a real trust deficit from people who would vote for traditional parties like, you know, Conservatives and Labour and those at Reform and Greens.
They no longer trust our you know things like the BBC, they no longer trust our, you know, mainstream media, they no longer trust our political class. Uh and they are desperately looking to somebody who and and they are totally rational on this. They will look and say, for 10, 15 years. We've been promised change. Elections come, they promise me change. And then they come in and nothing changes. Yes. And that's what's been so devastating for for for Keir Starmer.
is, you know, the the the whole ticket they ran on was changed. That was the big thing slogan. Never defined, but people look at it straight away and go, No, y you've you've you've not delivered anything like that and they've lost faith and I think it's a troubling place for us to be in because you know, if we go through another political cycle and we see reform into power and they don't deliver change, where do people go? Yes. Nigel I mean Nigel Farr I said an interview a few months ago
that, you know, people shouldn't be worried about me. They should be worried about what comes after me if we fail. Yes. And I think that's, you know, a really uh wise observation and one we should all be
¶ Brexit Legacy and NHS Reform
And we've seen other troubling polling, particularly among young people sort of saying they prefer a dictatorship'cause at least it would quote get things done.
Strong and stable.
Yes, quite. Um you mentioned Brexit there, Lee. Uh this is also interesting. People aren't blaming the concept of Brexit itself, or indeed the vote to leave, for the failure of Brexit. They're actually blaming politicians for it. Thirty two percent blame the politicians who failed to deliver Brexit for how it has gone. That's the largest group in the polling. Having said all that, forty nine percent say Brexit has been bad for the country, thirty percent think it has been good. That's logic.
If you're saying the politicians blew it, then it's you're not saying you're against it to say it hasn't worked out. Yes. Because I think the I think people look at the figures now and they think this must mean Britain is now a remainer country. No. No, what people are saying is you blew it. Yes not it's a bad idea.
People are united in their condemnation of those who failed to deliver on the promises made during twenty sixteen. Yeah. And uh interestingly Forty three percent say a new referendum would further divide the country, thirty five percent think it would help. So I think We can conclude here that it's not so much regrets for how Leave has voted. It's a regret at the fact that those who promised to deliver change post the referendum have failed to do so.
Yeah, I think so. Um and again I think Brexit or the the handling of Brexit after Brexit rather than than the referendum itself. So um just how it's gone over the last few years. has been a huge factor in that creation of trust with voters. Um and that's votes that both goes for voters who voted in uh for it and and people who voted against it.
And we saw that a lot of people blame the state of the country. Um the ones who are more inc inclined to blame it on bigger factors rather than just to turn around and say I really don't like Kissed Armour for whatever. Um, that Brexit would always be one of the first things they said. They said, you know, but again, when you drill down into it, it's this idea that the politicians completely bungled it and failed, failed whatever it was that they were tasked to do.
Lee, there is one area uh where the public does seem to favor small c conservative reform, and that's the NHS.
I there is I think what the what I found really interesting in some of the findings here was with the NHS it is always been, you know, the place that nobody could touch, no political party can fit. But I think there's an acceptance now that we can't fix the NHS with just more money. That was one of the key things people came through. There's an understanding that it's not working the way we would like it to and just simply shoveling in more cash
isn't isn't the future. So what we instead need to do is looking at ways how how can we fix that. And I think people are more open to um potential changes, potential, you know, looking at how the NHS can work, different sort of ways of funding.
a very live political wire and it's not something I particularly recommend. But you can see that there is a definite vision from the public that th this isn't going to be just fixed by money and we do need to look at this. I should caveat that, that anything that looks remotely like an American style her health system is incredibly toxic still. Yes. But I think there is a perception for many now that maybe the NHS isn't the best health system in the world, potentially.
Um, we can learn things from others and there are, you know, there's a way that we can potentially have a conversation of how we can improve the service that is politically viable.
Coming up after a dreadful week for Zach Polanski, has the public been put off voting for the Greens?
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Can we just reflect on recent events involving Polansky? I know you polled before he decided to call out the police's response to the man who allegedly stabbed the two Jewish people in Golders Green and the proceedings in that case are active.
¶ Green Party's Polanski Problem
But in general it seems as if over the weekend Polanski's popularity has tanked. on the back of this criticism and indeed as more stories of anti-Semitic behaviour posts, language used by Green counsellors and others has emerged. What do the public know of Polanski?
Do they recognise him as the leader of the greeds? What do they think of him as an individual? And is this I think we've crossing fast crossing a Rubicon when it comes to anti Semitism in this country, is that going to affect how people vote?
So I think when it comes to how well people know Polanski and the new image of the Greens, it's very different depending on which voters you look at. So um in general I would say that it's not I think all of these things with what politicians say they're doing and what they say they're about. It takes much longer to cut through with the public or it takes a lot more airtime than anyone ever thinks it does.
Um and so what I noticed in the groups was that um if you look at young progressive voters in urban areas, they do know about Planski and they really, really like what they see. And they they much prefer him to what Keir Starmer has an offer, to what the Labour Party has an offer. Mae'n ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r hynny.
They when we asked about Polanski they were who's that? Don't know, sorry, you know, wouldn't recognise a picture of him and definitely didn't have a sort of view of the Greens that they changed. They were sort of still saying things like, Well,
They're about the environment. They say they're a bit of a wasted vote maybe, but they're about the environment and they're about something else. So um I think we're in this quite interesting pattern for the Greens where they can be several things at once. I think we're starting to see that. undo. I think what is interesting though is a bit like um Farajan Reform
you will see the shine come off them. Now, I don't think that's gonna then necessarily benefit Labour. Um, first of all, I don't think that necessarily means you'll get lots of voters going back there. Um but also I think this was actually something that and again you can sort of think I don't I don't even think
that uh Plansky's a particularly skilled politician but I think it was a very deliberate choice to go after the section uh to to try and reassemble that Corbinite yes um platform and and that was quite a big platform. I mean it was two very, very different elections but got thirty two percent of the vote in twenty nineteen, got forty percent of the vote In 2017, under incredibly different contexts. Um, but I think he decided, and i in some senses.
been vindicated between September and now in doing so by saying, I'm not going to straddle these sort of conservative environmental voters and our younger Bristol voters anymore, you know, as the previous co-leaders had quite literally done between their constituencies.
I'm going to go out with a message about what you know we're for and it's going to be in this direction. That has in clearly inspired huge amount of enthusiasm in parts of the electorate, but we're now starting to see the downside of that.
Do you detect from these groups that there is a limit? For what progressive voters are willing to tolerate. I mean so Polansky uh is accused of suggesting that some Jewish Britons are imagining anti anti Semitism, uh and he appeared to criticize the police. uh when they were arresting that person gold as green. And those are a cup just a two stories over the weekend that made me think, maybe this is too much, even for the progressive left. Do they have a a limit to what they will tolerate?
I think there are there's quite a large section of younger I'm we're talking really quite young, but younger progressive voters who are very motivated by things like the conflict in the Middle East who might have views that are more unpalatable than a lot of people think.
Right. I mean ever since twenty twenty four, really. How much did that feature in your polling and focus grouping? How concerned are people about the rise of Islamic extremism? Is that argument linked to some of people's concerns about illegal migration? What's the picture?
Just so just before we come to that, to the previous point that you made on on the sort of events last week and and Zach Polansky, I think Uh because his sort of gen the general awareness of him as a political figure is relatively low, he's still at that point where he's yet to be fully framed in the mind of the public more broadly. And incidents like last week, people look at the footage
of the police apprehending the suspect in Golders Green and they will make their own judgment. And they'll look at that and th and they'll make a judgment of whether they think those police officers acted accordingly. I think most people in this country, if they were in a similar situation, will be very glad.
That police officers put their lives in danger and, you know, stopped an attacker. And I think that, you know, the danger for tax plant is the danger of the Greens is they then become very quickly framed in all sorts of public mind of a certain type of person. And once that framing's set, it's very difficult to change. So I think this week could be a particularly big moment. Just like for Jeremy Corbyn, a lot of people once they started to get into know him and saw him when
No, not not for me. You're not the sort of person I want leading this country. I can't imagine you as a prime minister of this country. And at some point people will have to make that judgment. And I think that's those moments are pretty, pretty key and I think they do start to set in people's minds.
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a large part of the population, but they've got say fifteen percent that are really in their corner. In our new spectrum politics, that means they can still be hugely influential.
Yeah.
I think this is this is becoming increasingly important within our sort of political our political system. We can see a real, you know, rise, particularly within within the Green Party and on on the left. I think we're gonna see a lot more sort of independent candidates in many of these areas that will themselves carry quite a healthy part of the electorate in that and that will really change.
a lot of y how the vote share is going in a lot of these sort of areas. So I think we're going to see um particularly for Labour, it'll push them naturally to the left on a whole lot of issues because there are, as Scarlett was saying, a lot of progressive voters. particularly young women metropolitan areas who are very
energized by situations of things like what's happening in Gaza. To them it is a very critical political issue and they want to hear more from their politicians for that. So there is an opportunity for the Greens and we can see them using those sort of issues and making them very prominent. And to many they are, you know, just as important as sort of economic issues in some of these areas. So it's a real driver of votes. So I think we're gonna have more and more of that part of the discussion.
¶ Local Elections as National Referendum
But Lee, these are local elections. They're about recycling a pothole. Why on earth are people dragging Gaza into it?
I think that's that is part of the issue is that people don't see certainly from our analysis, they don't really see the local elections as Potholes and uh you know the usual local election issues. They see them more now, like almost like UK midterms. Right. This is very much People say this over and over again, they are voting for uh a voice of what they think is ha happening in national politics. They're voting on national terms, national leaders. So I'm sure whoever
That's always happened. If you were flipping between Tory and Labour, maybe I'll vote in a Lib Dem Council. You were getting a group of sane people. to step in a team attached to a party that had probably been trained in some way by central office and broadly operate according towards according to a national manifesto, which is shaped by a national philosophy.
Now, if you've got people going, it's a referendum on the government, so I'm voting green, or I'm voting reform, you may well be electing in people who are just rubbish at local government, have never thought about it, and have no operating principles. I I get it I get it being a midterms, but I just think the dynamic's slightly different here because you're taking such a huge risk on the kind of people you're voting for.
I think people are so unhappy with the current state of play, that th you know, they see it as a hi a free hit to go and say, I'm not happy with the current government. I want change. This is another chance for me to tell you that I want change and they're going they're going to utilise that.
And I'm sure whoever does poorly, you know, whether it's the government and others who do poorly in the local elections this week will come out and say, Well, actually this is about local services, it's not about the Prime Minister, it's not about these other things. But in the minds of the public this is a huge this will be a huge rebuke, I suspect, for the Labour Party. Right. And one that they should take seriously.
¶ Starmer's Peril and Labour's Future
Shall we conclude on Keir Starmer and whether he can I don't know, survive these local elections, survive the month Survive the year, survive the parliamentary term. He's been in Armenia.
Yerevan in Armenia.
I mean like where can I disappear to?
The Prime Minister is today in Mars.
Yes.
It's just
avoiding looking at any polling as the country concludes he's quotes weak, weak, weak. Um so we now have apparently a rearguard action going on within the Labour Party that a number of MPs are poised to sign a letter. demanding that the Prime Minister, quote, sets out a timetable. Lee, you've been there. Um Scarlett, both of you, what are your predictions with your polling and other political experienced hats on, about the Prime Minister's tenure?
So I think Kier is past the point of no return with the public. As we've seen from the research, they have entirely given up on Kirst Armour. They do not want to vote for Kirst Armour. They will not come back to Kirst Armour. So his term as Prime Minister with the public is already over in many ways. There's a broader question of how quickly do Labour move? They tend to be less
adept at removing Prime Ministers and the Conservative Party who can do it with great speed and gusto now. Um but I but I think often uh something like the local elections isn't usually the trigger in itself. I think the Mandelson
situation was the end of Keir Starmer. But much like a sort of game of buckaroo, there are little things that keep getting put on. It's not necessarily the big saddle that makes the horse sort of buck. Sometimes it can be a you know the small hat or the glove or the lasso that sort of centers. So if you're Keir Starmer the focus will be can we get to the summer? And then you get to the summer and it's right, can we get to conference and reset and then you know so on.
But that's what they'll be going for. But it'll often be something that we don't see, something small that makes the herd move. So to quote a former great man. Uh and and I think that will that will come this year. At what point? I think it's hard to say.
You know Angela Rayner is running because she's given up fate.
Yes, I heard this. She's cleaning up her app.
It's like Dylan going electric.
It is, but she'd had a few too many in Strangers last week, apparently.
Reportedly.
Maybe it's because she's giving up the bate because she's just been throwing drinks down the back of her neck.
She walked into a door, she'll be demanding that pub doors be banned. Yeah, yeah.
Also it's dangerous to employees. We've got to remember their rights. Scarlett, sorry for my bad impression of a northerner. Um your your concluding thoughts on the future of this Prime Minister and indeed the chances of Angela Rayner replacing him.
Well, I think that Lee is right. I think Keir Starmer's brand has actually been irrecoverable with the public for quite a long time. I think it's been at least the last six months or so. I don't I don't think they will run him into the next election just because I don't think you can be MPs looking at your tiny majorities anyway and then looking at everything behind your shoulder and thinking, Yes, this is this is the man to go I just d I just don't think that will happen.
Um when he does actually go, I'm not so sure I'm more minded like me Lee to think that it will be something small, you know, it was Chris Pincher in the end that um topple Boris within sort of twenty four hours. It th these things can take a while and not actually be part of the big moment. So then I think
my perspective on the locals and how Labour behaves after it has slightly changed. I think if you'd asked me a month ago I'd have said, well, the actual you know, the advantage for Labour is that they've already baked in these terrible locals across the board.
I think what's actually slightly changed that has been the threat of the Greens and I think that was something that they hadn't really fully baked in, um, especially in things like London and I can fully see a world and especially if you're looking at places like Lambeth and Southwark go.
as well as losing places like Sunderland and Barnsley to reform. I think if you're looking at some of these London places go to Greens, especially if the Greens manage to win them outright, I think that could panic MPs in a way that they weren't anticipating to be.
So it's the headline of Thursday or Friday morning and by the way we will be recording in I'm gonna I'm why am I calling it an emergency pod? It's just a pod. It's an early it's a regular early morning Friday pod, which we'll try and get out early with our reaction. What is the headline of Friday then? Labour, bloodbath, starmer in peril, reform on the rise, reform wipeout, greens.
Do spectacularly well. What's your prediction for the top headline? What's the top of the news list? Former mirror journalist Lee Kane.
But personally I think I find it hard to look past what a catastrophic week it'll be for Keir Starmer. I think that for me will be the takeaway of just a total collapse of the Labour vote and there'll be lots of little subplots and things of interest, but I think it'll be the utter collapse of Labour that will be there.
Starmageddon. Can write it.
See that's that's the way you get paid the big books clearly.
Let's not get back to that. Antagonise Tim here, whose education is far better than mine.
Cain and Scarlett McGuire.
Very much.
Thank you. Thank you. We'll be back tomorrow, five PM.
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