Welcome back to TLDR's Daily Briefing for Thursday 1st May 2025. In today's episode, we cover Pakistan-India tensions. yet another development in South Korea's political drama and the US-Ukraine minerals deal. But first, England's local elections. Voters in 24 parts of the UK are heading to the polls today to elect councillors, mayors and, in one instance, a new MP.
While not all councils are up for election today, those that are were last up for election in May 2021, when the Conservatives were polling particularly well. As a result of this, the Tories ended up heading 19 out of the 24 councils. With their national polling having collapsed since then, the question now seems to be who is set to benefit from their demise.
The limited polling available so far suggests that it could be Reform UK, who could pick up a sizeable chunk of councils previously headed by the Tories. It doesn't look like Labour are set to benefit from this collapse in the same way as reform, largely because their polling has also collapsed. Again, the limited polling we do have about the local elections suggests that the one council they did control could be lost.
When it comes to the mayoral elections, there are essentially four that we have polling about, known as the four metromits. Two of these, Greater Lincolnshire and Hull in East Yorkshire, are holding mayoral elections for the first time. In Greater Lincolnshire, reform is fielding a candidate, Andrea Jenkins, who defected from the Conservative Party. Polling suggests that she is going to win.
In Holland East Yorkshire, Reform is fielding a candidate, Luke Campbell, who has no experience of politics and was previously a gold medal winning Olympic boxer and a current local celebrity. polling suggests that he too is going to win. In the former instance, reform could end up demonstrating to the Conservative Party that defections will be rewarded both in candidate selection and at the ballot box. they could demonstrate that selecting local celebrities and big names
could prove electorally successful for them in the future. If reform are also able to win the Roncorn and Hellsby by-election, which was triggered following the resignation of Labour MP Mike Amesbury, who was found guilty of assault after punching a constituent, then it's plausible that Thursday's elections will appear a clean sweep for reform. If you're interested to see exactly what happens, we'll have a full video explaining what happened released on the TLDR News UK channel tomorrow morning.
You're listening to TLDR's Daily Briefing. If you want more explainers on what's happening in the world then you should check out TLDR's other channels. Today, we released videos on three ways the US could force Russia into a ceasefire, and whether the Reform UK party is overhyped. You can find those videos linked in the description or show notes for this episode, or by searching for TLDR on YouTube or Nebula.
Pakistan says it has credible intelligence that India is planning imminent military action against it. After an attack by militants in Indian-administered Kashmir killed 26 civilians last week. India claims the attack was backed by Pakistan, which Pakistan denies. Speaking on Wednesday, Pakistan's information minister claimed that India could launch an attack in the next 24 to 36 hours.
adding that military adventurism by India would be responded to assuredly and decisively. It follows comments by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week, in which he vowed to pursue the attackers to the ends of the earth. India has also suspended a key water sharing agreement with Pakistan, something Pakistan argued was unlawful, and suspended most visas issued to Pakistani nationals, asking them to leave India within days.
Both countries have also closed their airspace to the other. Tensions between the two neighbours are at their highest since 2019, when India launched strikes against Pakistan after an insurgent attack in Kashmir. the international community is urging de-escalation, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday calling on both countries to maintain peace and security in South Asia.
South Korea's acting leader Han Duk-soo has announced his resignation, reportedly to run for president himself, in the latest development in the country's long-running political crisis. On Thursday, Han, of the right-wing People Power Party, told reporters that he was stepping down from his roles as acting president and prime minister to quote, take on an even heavier responsibility.
Sources close to Han say that this is to prepare for running for president in the June 3rd election. However, Han's apparent decision to enter the race could fuel political divisions in South Korea. He's been criticized by those on the left for his role in former president Yoon Suk-yeol's martial law debacle and accused by opposition politicians of using trade negotiations with the US as a springboard for his presidential ambitions.
Currently, polls suggest that left-wing candidate Lee Jae-myung is the preferred candidate, with 48.5% of support in a survey published last week. The most popular PPP candidate, however, trailed with 13.4%. Han's resignation now means the acting presidency will pass to Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok, who served as interim leader for several months earlier this year while Han was impeached. Han's impeachment was later overturned in March.
On Wednesday evening, after two months of contentious negotiations, the US and Ukraine signed a minerals and profit-sharing deal. Ukraine's first deputy prime minister in charge of economic affairs, Yulia Svuridenko, flew to Washington, D.C. to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, where the two signed the deal last night.
As we reported in yesterday's daily briefing, the new deal is considerably more collaborative than earlier draft versions, with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmihal calling it a real partnership deal, and Svididenko saying it is structured on a 50-50 basis. It provides the US with an economic incentive to continue investing in Ukraine's defence and reconstruction by granting preferential access for the US to Ukraine's critical minerals. Russia has not yet commented on the deal.
That's all for today. We'll be back with you tomorrow, so make sure you're subscribed wherever you listen. In the meantime, you can check out the latest episode of our UK politics podcast, Starmageddon, about the local elections taking place today. You can find the link in the podcast description. This was a TLDR News production hosted by Georgina Finlay, written by Ben Blissett and Georgina Finlay and produced by Scarlett Wachorn. Thanks for listening and we'll be back again tomorrow.