This week, The New York Times released new polls that sent shock waves through the Democratic establishment, finding Donald Trump leading in all six key swing states, in some cases by startling margins. While President Biden has fared better in other recent polls, the bottom line is that he is trailing in all the swing-state polling averages. So we talked to Jefrey Pollack, a top pollster for the Biden campaign, who laid out why he thinks it’s premature to read too much into these polls, and why...
May 14, 2024•23 min
Donald Trump constantly claims that crime is out of control. In reality, it’s substantially down under Biden, after soaring during the pandemic that Trump catastrophically botched as president. Now the Democratic group Third Way is releasing a new study finding that this year, congressional Democrats secured substantially more funding for public safety projects across the country than Republicans did. We talked to Jim Kessler of Third Way, who explains how Democrats can go on offense on the issu...
May 13, 2024•25 min
On Thursday, Stormy Daniels faced tough cross examination from Donald Trump’s attorneys in his hush money trial in Manhattan. By most accounts, she responded with humor and harsh mockery directed at Trump, which helped parry their assaults on her credibility. The ridicule, however, could serve another purpose: It could help convince the jury that Trump had a clear motive for committing crimes related to the hush-money scheme. We talked to former federal prosecutor Barbara McQuade, who explains h...
May 10, 2024•26 min
In the Indiana GOP primary on Tuesday night, Donald Trump lost 22 percent of GOP primary voters to Nikki Haley. That’s surprising, since Haley ended her campaign two months ago. So it’s clearly a trend: A sizable bloc of Republican voters in GOP primaries has resisted Trump again and again. We chatted with David Drucker, a senior writer at The Dispatch and author of a new piece about the Indiana outcome, about whether President Biden can poach these voters away from Trump and why it’s a warning ...
May 09, 2024•27 min
This week, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene is deciding whether to call a snap vote to oust Mike Johnson as House Speaker. She has a list of demands, and if they aren’t met, she will pull the trigger. If so, Democrats seem prepared to save Johnson. Which raises some questions: Can Democrats leverage anything in exchange for protecting Johnson? Are Greene and MAGA losing power inside the House GOP? We talked to Representative Ted Lieu, the Number 4 in the House Democratic leadership, about h...
May 08, 2024•24 min
Donald Trump’s hush-money trial in Manhattan has already served up some extraordinary moments. On Friday, former Trump aide Hope Hicks’s tearful testimony undermined the defense that Trump’s legal team will attempt to mount. On Monday, new evidence tied the payments to mistress Stormy Daniels tightly to Trump, and he was again held in contempt for attacking jurors, this time threatened with jail. We talked to Kim Wehle, a professor of law and former assistant U.S. attorney, about why these devel...
May 07, 2024•32 min
In his much-discussed Time interview, Donald Trump threatened to use the military to carry out mass deportations in a second term. The proposals he offered are appalling on their face. But beyond that, by regularly using vicious tropes about undocumented immigrants and other domestic enemies within, Trump is trying to acclimate voters to the ugliest forms of authoritarian, dehumanizing language. We talked to Maria Teresa Kumar, the president of Voto Latino, about a new effort she’s launching wit...
May 06, 2024•28 min
Unexpectedly, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been making a huge number of appearances all over right wing media of late. Trump advisers are loudly warning that this threatens to take voters from him, helping President Biden. But we’re skeptical: It’s still more likely that in the end RFK hurts Biden more than Trump. And there are cynical reasons why right wing media sources might be boosting RFK Jr. right now. We chatted with Matt Bennett, a co-founder of the Democratic group Third Way and a shrewd o...
May 03, 2024•24 min
A new consensus is settling in among political analysts: Donald Trump’s poll numbers look unexpectedly formidable in states like Arizona and Georgia, which means President Biden’s most likely path to victory requires winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And yet Trump will almost certainly lose if he can’t win one of those three. That’s why Democrats can stop Trump if they beat him in Wisconsin. We talked to Ben Wikler, the chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, who explains how years ...
May 02, 2024•29 min
In a new interview, Donald Trump gave away the game: If he wins the White House, he’d be fine with anti-choice crackdowns in red states going to horrific extremes. Trump vowed (unconvincingly) to leave abortion to the states, but when pressed, he suggested he’d be okay with prosecutions of women who get abortions and even with states monitoring their pregnancies. In addition to revealing what Roe v. Wade’s demise has wrought, that could give Democrats a boost in this fall’s state-level elections...
May 01, 2024•21 min
Recently Elon Musk triggered outrage by promoting a vicious speech by a Dutch activist that pushed virulent white nationalist ideologies. Musk added that Europe is threatened by “population collapse” that could lead to “dead civilizations.” What often gets lost amid such controversies is that Musk is pushing ideas that are part of a genuine political movement shaped around long term demographic anxieties. We chatted with reporter Gaby Del Valle, author of a great new Politico piece about the fir...
Apr 30, 2024•27 min
Over the weekend, a CNN interview with former attorney general Bill Barr went viral after Barr performed a spectacular on-air capitulation to Donald Trump. The former president had posted an unhinged rant that mercilessly belittled Barr, yet Barr affirmed his endorsement of Trump and downplayed the threat he poses, including a bizarre aside about Trump talking about “executing” rivals. We chatted with Amanda Carpenter, the prominent Never Trumper and an editor at Protect Democracy, about what th...
Apr 29, 2024•29 min
A new Politico report has exposed deep tensions between The New York Times and the White House. President Biden’s team believes The Times isn’t adequately capturing the threat Donald Trump poses to democracy, while The Times responds that Team Biden is out to micromanage the paper of record’s coverage. We think this debate is badly muddled and in need of some major clarifications. So we chatted with Substacker Brian Beutler, a frequent media critic, about today’s flawed conventions of political ...
Apr 26, 2024•37 min
Now that the House has passed military aid to Ukraine, MAGA personalities like Donald Trump Jr. and Tucker Carlson have joined Marjorie Taylor Greene in attacking House Speaker Mike Johnson as a traitor to the cause. Yet this isn’t just typical right wing ranting. It reveals very specific expectations of what Donald Trump would do to our international alliances if he wins back the White House. We talked to A.B. Stoddard, columnist at The Bulwark and author of a new piece digging into these dynam...
Apr 25, 2024•25 min
New polls this week offered something of a surprise: They show Robert F. Kennedy’s presidential run pulling more support from Donald Trump than from President Biden. And even some Republicans are publicly insisting that they fear the same. One person who is deeply skeptical of this reading is veteran Democratic strategist and podcaster Joe Trippi. We chatted with Trippi about his grand theory of the election, why he thinks the only threat RFK poses is to Biden, and how Trump and Republicans are ...
Apr 24, 2024•24 min
Now that Mike Johnson allowed Ukraine aid to pass the House on a broad bipartisan basis, an enraged Marjorie Taylor Greene is ramping up her threats to oust the Speaker. But a funny thing has happened: For many reasons, Greene’s efforts could end up accomplishing little for the MAGA right, even as they do more to endanger GOP control of the House. We chatted with Democratic Representative Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, a shrewd observer of all these dynamics, about the possibilities of more coal...
Apr 23, 2024•30 min
This week, arguments begin in Donald Trump’s hush money trial in Manhattan, and he’s raging over the unfairness of it all. Amazingly, some are rushing to insist the trial won’t pose a serious problem for his presidential chances. But progressive political strategist Anat Shenker-Osorio disagrees: She writes in a new piece for Slate that due to some hidden public opinion dynamics, the case is already damaging him. So we chatted with Shenker-Osorio about why the trial and Trump’s impulsive conduct...
Apr 22, 2024•26 min
At a fundraiser with oil and gas industry executives last week, Donald Trump reportedly ranted angrily about, of all things, wind power. “I hate wind,” Trump told the executives. That may seem like a joke, but it gets at a deadly serious topic: If Trump wins this fall, he’d very likely try to repeal President Biden’s climate policies. We chatted with David Roberts, author of a great energy Substack called “Volts,” about Trump’s prospects for success at that project, about its potential consequen...
Apr 19, 2024•29 min
Kari Lake, a diehard MAGA Republican who’s running for Senate in Arizona, told a rally this week that it’s time for supporters of her and Donald Trump to “put on the armor of God and maybe strap on a Glock just in case.” There you have it: God and Glock, side by side. We talked to Elizabeth Neumann, a Homeland Security counterterrorism official during Trump’s presidency and author of a new book about Christian extremism, about how MAGA rhetoric normalizes political violence. Learn more about you...
Apr 18, 2024•32 min
Here on the podcast we’ve repeatedly argued that Mike Johnson might ultimately allow a vote on military aid to Ukraine, even if it might get him ousted as speaker by MAGA forces in the House. Thankfully, this now looks real: The House GOP leadership is preparing to move forward with Ukraine aid as part of a broader set of bills—and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene is furious. We talked to Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey, a former U.S. Navy Pilot and member of the Arme...
Apr 17, 2024•23 min
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential run is inspiring new fears among Democrats that he will help Donald Trump win the White House again. Meanwhile, Kennedy’s campaign is now expressing confidence that he’ll appear on the ballot in all the key swing states and beyond. So it’s notable that the Kennedy clan is taking urgent new steps to mobilize in response—against their own family member’s candidacy. We chatted with Jill Lawrence, a veteran journalist and author of a new piece for The Bulwark on ...
Apr 16, 2024•25 min
With jury selection in Donald Trump’s hush money trial beginning this week in New York, some have dismisses the case as weak. Yet Trump, who is accused of falsifying business records to conceal payoffs over his alleged affair with Stormy Daniels, is not acting as if he’s out of the woods. Dave Aronberg, a prosecutor in Florida who writes for Meidas Touch News, has argued that it’s not necessarily a weak case at all. We chatted with Aronberg about what to expect from the trial and how surprise ev...
Apr 15, 2024•27 min
Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has been hit by a lot of bad news lately. His former vice president declined to endorse him. His legal travails are getting worse. And some states are lurching to new extremes on abortion, making it impossible for Trump to shrug off responsibility for the end of Roe v. Wade. Yet as Media Matters has documented, Fox News appears to be dramatically downplaying a lot of these stories. We talked to Media Matters news director John Whitehouse about Fox’s evolution...
Apr 12, 2024•21 min
On Wednesday, Donald Trump declared that he won’t sign a national abortion ban if elected president, a clear sign he recognizes the issue poses a severe threat to his prospects. But this week, the Arizona State Supreme Court upheld an 1864 law banning almost all abortions, demonstrating that Trump will be forced to answer for every extremist lurch in the states from now until the election. We chatted with Elvia Diaz, the editorial page editor of The Arizona Republic, who explains how deeply pers...
Apr 11, 2024•27 min
At a recent fundraiser, Donald Trump promised big tax cuts to some of the richest donors in the country. He also suggested he wants more immigrants from countries like Norway—hint, hint—while blasting Latin American migrants as criminals and worse. This corrupt bargain—offer huge giveaways to wealthy elites so they embrace far right governance—is an old story. In today’s episode, Harvard professor Daniel Ziblatt—who studies what happens when conservative elites ally with authoritarian movements—...
Apr 10, 2024•26 min
This week, Mike Johnson finally appears set to decide whether to hold a House vote on funding military aid to Ukraine. If so, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene has threatened to try to oust him as Speaker. Yet something funny has happened: A lot of House Republicans want to vote on Ukraine aid. Is there any chance it might pass? How will Donald Trump react? We talked to Julia Ioffe, a journalist for Puck and a leading voice on Russia-U.S. relations, who shed light on the brutal road ahead fo...
Apr 09, 2024•29 min
It’s a new trend: GOP legislatures are advancing bills that place onerous new kinds of restrictions on public and school libraries in states like Idaho, Alabama, Georgia and others. On the front lines of taking on this trend is Emily Drabinski, the president of the American Library Association, who also grew up in Idaho and is openly gay. So we invited Drabinski on to the show to shed light on what it takes to battle the book banners targeting LGBTQ materials in states like her own, and what sor...
Apr 08, 2024•22 min
This week, The New York Times reported that Donald Trump recently spoke privately with Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Trump’s team won’t say word boo about what was discussed, and we can guess why: His private business dealings with the Saudis are going gangbusters even as he’s locking up the GOP presidential nomination, creating all kinds of opportunities for corruption. We talked to Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland, who explained why the Trump-Saudi relationship is absolutely crying ...
Apr 05, 2024•26 min
This week, special counsel Jack Smith made a surprise move in his prosecution of Donald Trump for stealing classified documents. He called on Judge Aileen Cannon to make a quick decision on a key matter, flaunting his frustration with her over numerous rulings putting the thumb on the scale for Trump. We chatted with Philip Rotner, a veteran lawyer who has written a series of pieces for The Bulwark arguing that Cannon is killing the case against Trump right in broad daylight. Rotner explains in ...
Apr 04, 2024•24 min
One of Donald Trump’s central campaign promises has been to pardon untold numbers of rioters who attacked the Capitol—people he’s described as martyrs, victims and “hostages.” Now, an important new analysis finds that many of the inmates Trump has referred to are ones who violently attacked law enforcement officers. We talked to Tom Joscelyn, lead author of that analysis and a former senior Jan. 6 committee staffer, who explains how his findings blow apart a lot of Trump-MAGA propaganda about th...
Apr 03, 2024•26 min
