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Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Friday, the seventeenth of January. I'm Sam, I'm Billy. After fifteen months of devastating conflicts, Israel and Humas have agreed to a ceasefire hostage deal, marking a major turning point in the war. The agreement, broken by Egyptian, Katari and US authorities, is set to begin this Sunday. In today's deep Dive, we're going to break down what this means for the region and the prospects for lasting peace.
Sam, this was huge news that we in Australia woke up to yesterday that the conflict that has claimed tens of thousands of lives is finally well, hopefully over. Do you want to start by just reminding us how we got here and how this latest bout of fighting started.
Well, we go back fifteen months and the current phase of the conflict began on the seventh of October twenty twenty three. That was the day that Hamas launched an attack on Israel, killing around twelve hundred people. They also talk two hundred and fifty one hostages, with about one hundred of those still being held in Gaza. Israel responded by declaring war on Hamas and launching a military campaign in Gaza. The human toll of that campaign has been devastating.
UAN data shows around forty six six hundred Palestinians have been killed and at least ninety percent of Gaza's population is now displaced. The territory is facing what the UN has called one of the worst humanitarian crises in recent history.
And now we have this deal that has been announced. Do you want to walk us through what it actually involves.
Yeah. And the first thing I want to say is that we haven't actually seen the full text of this deal. It has been made public so far. We're going off the widely reported details that stems from some news organizations having a copy themselves. The Associated Press was the first news company to have a copy of the deal. With that said, we do have a firm idea of what's entailed. We also got some confirmation from the US President Joe Biden and Qatar's Prime minister during a number of press
conferences yesterday. So it's structured in three parts. The first phase, which will start on Sunday, so in forty eight hours time is going to last six weeks, and during that time there will be a complete ceasefire and Hamas will release thirty three hostages. Now in exchange of those hostages, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including thirty who
are currently serving life sentences. And what's really significant is that the IDF will need to pull back from populated areas in Gaza during this period and they're going to retreat to a buffer zone near the Israeli border, and that should allow more humanitarian aid to enter Gaza and give placed Palestinian civilians a chance to return to northern Gaza. Keep in mind, though, that US research has indicated that about sixty percent of buildings in Gaza have been destroyed
over the past fifteen months. Now, in terms of aids, the deal specifies six hundred UN humanitarian trucks can enter each day, which is a marked increase from what's currently allowed to enter the Strip. Officials have said delivering aid could still be difficult due to Israel's restrictions on some UN agencies like UNRA and widespread looting.
And by ceasefire, will there be a complete stop to the.
Fighting yeah, So think about ceasefire as both sides agreeing to stop fighting while officials negotiate the terms of a permanent truce. And I often find that that's the key to understanding the difference is is it a ceasefire or is it a truce? And it's a really important distinction when we get to phase two and phase three, and that's when a more permanent solution to this is trying to be worked out. One more point before I move
on to talking about phases two and three. The deal's only going to come in on Sunday, and a few hours after the deal was announced yesterday, the IDF launched another round of strikes in northern Gaza, killing at least twelve And I think that goes to something I want to talk to you about at the NBILLY, which is that this is a framework where a lot can go wrong as well.
So for the next forty eight hours there won't be that immediate stop in fighting, but after Sunday exactly.
So it's going to come into force on Sunday. Well, at least that's the plan for now.
And so you've taken us through the first phase. I'm interested you said that they're still kind of working out phase two and three. Is that right? That they haven't fully agreed on what those phases.
Will look like yet, Yeah, And it's not uncommon in these sorts of cease fires historically for this to be the way that these fold out. I mean, one way to think about the stages is that phase one is the stage that allows officials to think about how to execute stages two and three.
But we do still know some things about stage two and.
Three, right, Yeah, we know the goal of phases two and three is four, as Joe Biden said, a permanent end to the war. And that's all going to depend though on how the first six weeks of Phase one pan out. If it pans out well, in phase two, Hamas would release all remaining living hostages in exchange for more Palestine prisoners and a complete IDF withdrawal from Gaza.
Joe Biden said though, that if the negotiations to get to a Phase two go longer than the six weeks they're allocated for Phase one, that the Phase one conditions are going to kind of remain in place for that. So they're hoping for six weeks. There's a six week countdown, but it can go longer. But I think the really tricky part to all of this is what happens after the IDF withdraws, and I think that's why it's taking
officials a bit of time. Is much of the negotiations in this part of the deal is going to relate to how the long term reconstruction and permanent peace is actually going to be built in Gaza. A big focus of this is also going to be who's going to
govern Gaza in the long term. And then if we move past that, we get to phase three, and that's where the remains of any hostages who have been killed and are still held by Hamas would be exchanged for the implementation of what they're calling a multi year reconstruction plan in Gaza, and that would be administered by an international coalition.
And all of those questions that you're bringing up about kind of what the long term future of Gaza is and this war between Israel and Hamas. Yeah, I guess it's important to say that this is in the context of a really long term war. These are not new questions. There are questions that the region has and the country
has been dealing with for decades and decades. So it will be fascinating to see if, like you said, this is a long term solution that will potentially put an end to those decades of fighting, rather than just seeing this as something that has happened in the last fifteen months.
Definitely, and even listening to some of the responses from other Middle Eastern countries' leadership yesterday, there was this real sense for such a dynamic and troubled region whether this type of event would lead to more sustained peace. You're totally right. This is a part of the world that really speaking for hundreds of years, has not been in what we would describe as peacetime.
So this was all announced early yesterday in Australia. What happens now, So.
The plan is with Israel's Cabinet, and that is a body in Israel that includes the Prime Minister Benjamin Nyahu and his senior ministers. They'll have final approval over all the details of the plans. We're talking maps, we're talking names of prisoners and hostages before the plan is actually implemented on Sunday.
And what has the response been from the leaders of Israel and Hamas So?
Israeli President Isaac Herzog yesterday urged the cabinet to accept the deal. He said that the deal would bring our sons and daughters home. In a statement from Hamas, Hamas said the deal was an achievement for our people, our resistance, our nation, and the free people of the world. It marks a crucial turning point in the struggle against the enemy, on the path to achieving our people's goals of liberation and return.
And when talking about the response, I saw a lot of videos yesterday on social media of people in Gaza and also in Israel really celebrating this agreement and hopefully celebrating the end to what has been, like you said, fifteen months of complete devastation.
And I think that's another pattern that emerges from these sorts of moments. I'm thinking about, you know, ceasefires being reached in places like Seria, Iraqi, Afghanistan over the last twenty years, the relief and the outpouring of emotion that we often see on the streets of these countries.
For the civilians, it's quite overwhelming.
Yeah, at the end of the day, you know, these sorts of political decisions actually have real life impacts to both Israelis and Palestinians.
And US President Joe Biden also held a press conference yesterday. He stood up with Vice President Kamala Harris and the Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln to announce the deal. What did he say?
So he got up, he announced the deal, and he said this, well than fifteen months.
Of terror for the hostages, they're families Israeli people, more than fifteen months of suffering by the innocent people of Gaza. Fighting in Gaza will stop, and soon the hashis return home and their families.
Now Biden wasn't the only US president we heard from yesterday. We also heard from President elect Donald Trump. Now, he had previously said there would be quote hell to pay if the hostages weren't released by his inauguration, which is January twenty. Also only a few days away. After the deal was announced, he claimed on truth social that his incoming administration had quote achieved so much without even being in the White House.
Yeah, there's an interesting US political angle here too, because both Joe Biden and Donald Trump kind of fighting over who can claim credit for negotiating this deal.
Definitely, and I mean Biden is coming out and saying this is the exact wording of the deal that he put to the parties in May last year. Trump is saying the deal is only happening because of his imminent arrival at the White House. There was also this really interesting moment at the end of the press compe ference yesterday where Biden was asked who could take credit for the deal?
Thank you?
Credit for this, mister President? You or truck?
Is that a Joe?
Oh?
Thank you?
I do think there's a lot of kind of political noise and spin when we work out who can take the credit for this. And there were many comments not only from Biden and Trump, but also from Blincoln and other representatives of the actual team of US officials who have been negotiating this deal. And one thing that came through when you took away the comments from Biden and
Trump is that it's been a combined effort. That there were comments about, you know, the incoming administration and the Biden administration working quote as one team on the deal in recent weeks, which I thought was really interesting and.
Quickly talked me through the Australian political response.
So a couple of hours after the news of the ceasefire broke, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albernezi he said, the ceasefire is a quote new chapter for the Israeli and Palestinian people.
This agreement is a constructive step towards peace and stability in the region. We hope it will allow the Palestinian people the opportunity to rebuild, reform their governance which is most necessary, and pursue self determination. Australia remains unequivocal in our condemnation of Hamas's atrocities. On the seventh of October.
We also heard yesterday from the Opposition leader Peter Dudden he welcomes the deal, saying Australia should now seek to re establish its important relationship with Israel and to finish up.
We did briefly touch on this, but I want to bring it up again because I think the big question that everyone has is around whether the ceasefire deal can actually last long term. What do you think?
I think this is an incredibly tough question to answer, but I do think that we need to think about this deal not just in the six weeks of phase one, but this is a three phase deal and both parties need to pass the test of phase one to get to phase two and then phase three. Agreements like this are never going ted and they're so fragile. I mean, you think about one missile going from Gaza to Israel or one rocket going from Israel to Gaza and all
of a sudden the deal is off. But whilst they do sometimes fall down, they do have the capacity to usher in a new period of peace. And that doesn't matter where it is in the world. We know that over history, cspires can work. It's fragile, it may fail at any time, but it also might work. And I think a really critical point for us to be looking out for is that six week point at the end of Phase one. Negotiators essentially have this six week countdown
ahead of them. If they do work out a framework to enter phase two, then they'll have momentum and they'll have a drive forward. If you start extending phase one, that's where we might see some of the fighting resume.
We'll be watching closely as this deal unfolds on Sunday. Thank you Sam for taking us through. Thanks Billy, and thank you for listening to this episode of The Daily Oz. We'll be back this afternoon with your afternoon headlines. B Until then, have a great weekend. My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda Bunjelung Calkatin woman from
Gadighl country. The Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and torrest rate island and nations. We pay our respects to the first peoples of these countries, both past and present.