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Oh now it makes sense.
Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Tuesday, the sixteenth of September. I'm Emma Gillespie.
I'm Lucy Tassel.
The Government has released its first assessment of the risks posed by climate.
Change across Australia.
The report paints a concerning picture, with predictions about what the future could look like if rising temperatures are not curbed, including a four hundred and fifty percent increase in heat related deaths in some parts of the country. Overall, the risk assessment warns that no Australian community will be immune.
But the government says it has a plan.
Today we are breaking down what this assessment found, what these findings mean for Australia's future, and how experts say we need to move forward in what is shaping up to be a very big climate week for the government with its twenty thirty five emissions reduction target expected by Friday.
So, Emma, this is the first time we've received a report like this. For those listening who might not understand, perhaps for your co host in the studio who might not know what is this National Climate Risk Assessment.
Yes, so this is a publication a report from the Australian Climate Service. Now that is a government partnership of multi agencies including the Bureau of Meteorology, the csir ROW, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Geoscience Australia. So those expert groups have come together to assess how climate change will impact eight key systems across our society. So this includes our communities, defense, the economy, health, infrastructure, the national environment,
primary industries, and First Nations groups. So the risk assessment, as you mentioned, Lucy, is the first time we've had something like this, a nationally consistent, evidence based evaluation of climate risks across all these different areas. So basically it's
the most comprehensive analysis of climate risks to date. But what is interesting about it is that it looks at climate impacts really broadly in terms of how they will affect not just the environment, but health systems, infrastructure, the economy, all of those systems at once.
So what are the key findings so we should know about So I.
Do have to warn you that most of the findings are pretty dark.
It is a pretty grim assessment.
So I want that to be what we're holding on to going in, but also knowing that there is a plan, a strategy, and a framework we're going to get to. Okay, But the risk assessment models outcomes under three warming scenarios to assess what will happen at different stages, So there's kind of a forecast of how bad will things be at one point five degrees of warming, two degrees and
three degrees of warming above pre industrial levels. Now, based on current global projections, the world is on track to see two point nine degrees of warming this century, So the worst case scenario in this report is not that far out of the realm of possibility.
And that's a lot more than what we've talked about on this podcast before in terms of the Paris Agreement seeking to limit emissions to reduce warming to less than one point five degrees ex industrial level. So two point nine is almost.
Double that exactly, and Australia has already reached one point five degrees. The headline finding is that climate risks to Australia are escalating rapidly and will worsen significantly by twenty fifty without action.
Okay.
What is particularly concerning is that these risks don't exist in isolation. They quote compound and cascade across different systems. So an example of this is a major flood right doesn't just damage housing and infrastructure. It disrupts supply chains, affects mental health, it impacts agriculture, It can overwhelm emergency services, It can cost the government in disaster relief funding. There
are insurance implications. So this assessment is really looking at that bigger picture, and it found that many of Australia's climate hazards will become more intense and occurrent areas that haven't experienced them before. So we're looking at more frequent heat waves, bushfires, flooding, coastal hazards from rising sea levels more intensely in more places, more frequently.
What are some of the places that are most at risk?
So the assessment identifies several key areas of particular concern. The first is Northern Australia, so this includes the Northern Territory and parts of Queensland and Wa. We know these regions are exposed to multiple climate hazards including heat waves, flooding, tropical cyclones, bushfires, often simultaneously. So the forecast is that that gets worse in that part of the country. Coastal communities ride across Australia as well, though, face heightened risks
from rising sea levels. According to the Risk Assessment So it found that by twenty fifty, the number of coastal communities in high and very high risk areas will more than double from eight to eighteen percent, and if current populations remained the same, this would mean one and a half million people living in areas experiencing rising sea levels and coastal flooding risks by twenty to fifty.
And I mean when you say coastal communities, I think of population maps I've seen of Australia, which shows that pretty much everywhere in Australia is a coastal community, even if it might not feel like it. If you're in, for example, where I am, you know, further into the west, I'm not like on the sea, but I'm still in what could be classified as a coastal community.
You live in a major city on the eastern seaboard, Yeah, exactly. As you've mentioned, most Australians do live in quote unquote coast communities. Remote communities as well, though, according to this report, are particularly vulnerable. They often depend on single supply chains, so there's limited infrastructure and access issues when something goes wrong. These communities have fewer alternatives and that also is set to worsen with worsening climate outcomes.
Yeah, we've touched a little bit on the cities. The place is where most Australians tend to live. But what more can you tell me about the projected impacts on the cities?
Yes, so specifically in outer urban areas of cities. The report notes that these places are watch points because they're particularly susceptible to adverse impacts due to their location, demographics and exposure to hazards. Coastal cities, as we've touched on, face significant challenges from rising sea levels, and urban centers are increasingly at risk from extreme heat events, which the risk assessment noted strain energy systems and impact public health services.
The projects heat wave deaths will increase really significantly. This is a major headline out of this report.
Yeah.
For example, in Sydney and Darwin, current warming scenarios could lead to a predicted four hundred percent surge.
In heat wave deaths.
Wow.
Even under the lower one point five degrees of warming scenario, where we are at heat wave mortality would still double. Health broadly is one of the systems facing the most severe risk escalations, So current health risks are listed as moderate to high, but they are expected to reach severe levels by twenty fifty. Interestingly, diseases like Dangi fever, Japanese and cavalitis these are also likely to spread as temperatures
and rainfall patterns change. So the report notes that healthcare systems are less experienced in managing these kinds of diseases. And then there's a whole other conversation about preparedness.
So one of the things that could change for Australia if more and more people are getting in different and new ways, is that the economy can be affected because if people aren't able to work or it's very difficult to do certain jobs because of the weather, that has like long term flow on effects. Exactly What else did it say about the economy, So.
The report discussed insurance losses from natural disasters. We know that these have surged in recent years, but they're predicted to continue increasing. You know, with that comes increased premiums, communities getting priced out of insurance policies and as a result, government emergency disaster spending will also search to support impacted communities. Looking ahead, projected disaster costs across all states and territories could total more than forty billion dollars per year by
twenty fifty. That's under the most moderate emissions scenario. So that is a figure that includes both financial and social costs. And this stood out to me is really interesting. The report estimates that Australian property values could face losses of more than six hundred billion dollars by twenty fifty. So that's the kind of housing impact of the cost of coastal erosion, flooding, rising sea levels. You know, you don't often hear the property market discussed in such grand losses.
We usually are talking in the complete reverse terms. The report also noted that increased and more intense heat waves will strain energy systems at the exact time when people are going to need them the most, and you know this could see power prices surge even further.
We've now touched on people quite a bit. What about our natural environment? How are our ecosystems expected to cope with all of these changes?
Yeah, this is honestly one of the most concerning areas. The natural environment as we already know, as we've discussed at length here before, you know, faces really high risk from climate change, and this is expected to escalate to severe levels.
By twenty fifty.
So by that point, between forty and seventy percent of native plants species will be exposed to climatic conditions that they don't currently experience, So then those plants will be facing potential extinction events. Our coral reefs face an almost certain risk of catastrophic consequences. You know, even at current levels of warming, ocean pH is projected to change significantly, making it so much harder for corals and shell making
organisms to survive. And the report warns of potential ecosystem collapse in many, many years. With this sort of cascading effect on the services these ecosystems provide so clean water, coastal protection, carbon storage.
I could go on.
Just from my quick look at the report, I know it also examines risks to First Nations communities specifically, what can you tell me about that?
So, the risk assessment identified seven nationally significant climate risks specifically affecting Aboriginal and Torrestrate islander peoples. These include physical impacts as well as threats to connection to country threats, to connection to cultural practices which can have significant social and emotional impacts as well. For torrist Rate Islander communities, the assessment looked at rising sea levels, which pose direct
threats to homes and cultural sites. So, you know, the ongoing theme of this assessment is what looks like maybe one risk is you know, really representative of an entire suite of threats.
Yeah, so governments don't tend to release documents this bleak without also having some kind of accompanying action. What has the government said they're going to do about all of this?
Yeah, so you're absolutely right.
Alongside this risk assessment, we have a National Adaptation Plan. This is basically looking at, okay, how can we adapt policies to move or grow with climate change, to get ahead of climate change.
So you know, it's not all bleak.
There are some kind of scaling up of climate change approaches, emissions reductions efforts that would mitigate a lot of these risks, or at least reduce them or improve our resilience, you know, lessening the impact of climate disaster. So this policy framework
notes some initiatives that are already underway. This includes Australia's first national Health and Climate strategy, and something called the Torres Strait and Northern Peninsula Area Climate Resilience Center, which is being established to support communities facing immediate climate impacts. Exactly how the government will respond to this risk assessment remains to be seen. This plan kind of emphasizes that climate response is a dynamic and moving kind of living,
breathing thing. It's not a static, one fix, one page solution. The government's really talking about bigger picture ideas, working with states, territories and local governments to create an action agenda for this plan, which it's promising by the end of next year. So you know it might sound depressing, but it is
just the beginning. Really, this is a stepping stone. We have this risk assessment and now we need to continue monitoring and updating how we understand conditions changing and as we learn more about climate and its impacts and how they unfold, policy makers will respond appropriately according to what this plan says.
How have those policy makers responded so far so.
Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen called the Risk Assessment and Adaptation Plan a quote roadmap to address the unavoidable impacts of climate change to build a more resilient country for all communities, regions and industries. Greens leader Senator Larissa Waters said, quote the revelations about Australia's future
under climate change detailed in this report are chilling. The Climate Council, which is an independent not for profit, the Greens and independent Zali Steggle have all separately responded to the findings, criticizing the government's approvals of recent coal, oil and gas projects, which they separately say are holding Australia back from emissions reduction targets. And Waters said quote, this report must be a wake up call for labor ahead of their twenty thirty five climate target.
Decision, which is due this week right.
Exactly so really quick.
Refresher countries signed up to the Paris Agreement that includes Australia are set to announce their emissions targets for twenty thirty five ahead of this year's COP thirty climate conference in Brazil. So Australia, as part of that group, is actually expected to announce its target later this week. Thursday or Friday are the days that we are hearing rumored for the big announcement.
The government so far.
Hasn't made any firm commitments to put the target into law. It's been awaiting analysis for a sixty five to seventy five percent emissions reduction target from the Climate Change Authority to inform its decision. Now the Climate Council separately is urging the government to legislate the strongest possible twenty thirty five climate target, and it called the risk assessment this
week a horror story. But Lucy, this this is not the last you are going to hear about all of this over the coming days, I can promise you that, So brace yourself for several other reports, including on net zero. There's a report coming on how to reduce pollution across the economy and critically the twenty thirty five target alongside the Climate Change Authorities advice.
Thanks so much for explaining all of that to us.
Emma, thank you for having me strap in. It's going to be a big one.
It's going to be a big one, and we will be keeping all of you updated over on the TDA feed and probably back in this podcast feed again. We'll be back this afternoon with the headlines. Until then, have a great day. My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda Bungelung Kalkuttin woman from Gadigl country. The Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the Gadighl people and pays respect to all
Aboriginal and Torres Strait island and nations. We pay our respects to the first peoples of these countries, both past and present.