Credit spreads are poised to hit record tight levels in the first quarter, even as debt issuance rises, according to participants in this special 2025 outlook edition of the Credit Edge podcast, hosted by Bloomberg’s James Crombie. We discuss bonds, loans, private credit — and bourbon — with the following guests: Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research; Ana Arsov, global head of private credit at Moody’s; Matt Brill, Invesco’s head of North America ...
Dec 17, 2024•54 min
Swelling demand for limited supply of corporate bonds and loans could spell trouble for credit markets, according to PineBridge Investments. “The thing that gives me a lot of pause right now — and some concern — is the lack of net new supply versus the amount of demand out there,” said Jeremy Burton, the firm’s portfolio manager for US high yield and leveraged loans. “That leads to the risk that the market as a whole will make subpar credit decisions,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and ...
Dec 12, 2024•50 min
Real estate and private equity are a better investment than direct lending, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. Those two have repriced on higher rates, while private credit hasn’t, Gabriela Santos, the firm’s chief market strategist for the Americas tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Robert Schiffman, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “It’s been interesting to see signs that actually commercial real estate seems to be bottoming and turning ...
Dec 05, 2024•46 min
Homeowners cashing out after a surge in real estate prices presents a major opportunity for debt investors, according to TPG Angelo Gordon. “We’re seeing the evolution of home equity products,” said TJ Durkin, the firm’s head of structured credit and specialty finance. “There could be $150 to $200 billion of origination per year, with a $2 trillion really addressable market there,” Durkin tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Carmen Arroyo, and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Davi...
Nov 27, 2024•47 min
Private credit to risky borrowers that need a lifeline is poised to boom as rates stay high, according to Oaktree Capital Management. “You’re going to see a lot of what they call rescue financing,” said David Rosenberg, head of liquid performing credit at Oaktree. “That’s going to be one of the greatest opportunities we’ve seen in a decade.” Loans to troubled companies will focus on sectors that have seen most leveraged buyout activity, like technology and health care, Rosenberg tells Bloomberg ...
Nov 21, 2024•45 min
Sustainable finance can keep growing despite potential headwinds from the next US administration, according to Nikko Asset Management. “If the political side is not asking for disclosure on strategies and updates on ESG, we as portfolio managers have to ask,” said Holger Mertens, Nikko’s head of global credit, referring to environmental, social and governance standards. “It’s our job to make sure we’re buying assets at the right price,” Mertens tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg I...
Nov 14, 2024•42 min
The US economy heading for a potentially “turbulent landing” may spell trouble for junk bonds, according to Colleen Cunniffe, head of global taxable credit research at Vanguard. “We’re actually relatively cautious on high yield at the moment from a broad perspective,” Cunniffe tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Himanshu Bakshi in the latest Credit Edge podcast. The world’s second-largest asset manager prefers debt rated BBB, bonds from utilities and banks, as well a...
Nov 07, 2024•40 min
Lending directly to middle-market US-based companies is the best opportunity in credit markets, offering double-digit yields, according to Randy Schwimmer, vice chairman at Churchill Asset Management. “We probably only have a small handful of lenders that we’re competing against,” Schwimmer tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike Holland in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “This right now is undiscovered value that is hiding in plain sight,” added Schwimmer, whose fi...
Oct 31, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Reports of active management's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Active continues to grow and evolve in ETFs while mutual funds prosper and define benefit plans. Bloomberg Intelligence strategy team uncover active opportunities and glean insights from active managers and those who cover the industry. Listen to Inside Active by Bloomberg Intelligence . See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....
Oct 27, 2024•1 min
High-grade US corporate bond issuance will rise again in 2025, building on this year’s record-setting pace, according to Goldman Sachs. “There’s a lot of growth in the economy that needs to take place, as well as all of the refi,” Jonny Fine, Goldman’s global head of investment grade debt tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Refinancing will account for the bulk of the sales, while infrastructure finance and buyouts...
Oct 24, 2024•50 min
Private debt doesn’t offer high enough returns to justify the growing risks, according to Pimco. “Fundamentals are deteriorating in more levered portions of the credit markets,” said Mohit Mittal, chief investment officer for core strategies at Pimco. “You’re seeing more complacency, so you have to be very thoughtful, you have to be very careful.” Investment-grade direct lending pays only half the premium needed to compensate for worse liquidity than in public markets and rising fundamental conc...
Oct 17, 2024•47 min
Schroders Capital is seeing growing interest in private debt from investors looking to diversify as returns in public markets decline. It’s finding the best relative value in commercial real estate where over-exposed regional banks can no longer lend. “The most interesting opportunity, I think is looking where there’s emotional bias and fear,” says Michelle Russell-Dowe, co-head of private debt and credit alternatives at the asset manager, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Schroders also likes ...
Oct 10, 2024•58 min
Blackstone Inc. expects private credit to balloon to $30 trillion in size, fueled by the energy transition, housing and data center lending. “We’re really expanding the opportunity set from quite a narrow part of the market to really a mainstream part,” said Rob Horn, global head of infrastructure and asset-based credit at Blackstone. “Not only can we get hard-asset collateral — which differs from what they get in the public market — but we also get a premium return,” Horn tells Bloomberg News’ ...
Oct 03, 2024•53 min
The $1.7 trillion private credit market faces several challenges after years of rapid growth, according Ana Arsov, global head of private credit at Moody’s Ratings. “It’s going to be very important to get more transparency from the banks about is there some kind of synthetic leverage, additional leverage, coming to this market,” Arsov tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Arsov and Havens also debate t...
Sep 26, 2024•53 min
Victory for Kamala Harris in the US election would boost the bonds of basic industries, capital goods companies and utilities, according to Matt Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS. “A lot of that we think is tied to the preservation of the inflation reduction act and support of many of the Biden-era stimulus policies,” Mish tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Julie Hung in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Conversely, a win for Democrats would be ...
Sep 19, 2024•44 min
As commercial real estate continues to menace banks and investors, Goldman Sachs Asset Management is leaning into the debt. “What we’ve been able to do is find a lot of opportunities in commercial mortgage-backed securities,” Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing at the company, told Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence credit analyst Jody Lurie in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “It’s a good portion of our portfolio, and we think it generates a decent amount of carr...
Sep 12, 2024•50 min
Funding companies with unsustainable debt loads has been “the best opportunity in the corporate credit market over the last year or two,” Jimmy Levin, Sculptor Capital Management’s chief investment officer, says in Bloomberg Intelligence’s Credit Edge podcast. Separately, Sculptor expects substantial growth in asset-based finance, where Levin sees double-digit returns, he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Irene Garcia Perez, and BI credit analyst Stephane Kovatchev. Also in this episode, L...
Sep 05, 2024•55 min
Norinchukin Bank faces significant losses from the sale of US and European sovereign bonds that tumbled as interest rates rose, and other financial institutions may also be exposed. “The bank is still losing more than a billion dollars a quarter,” says Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Pri de Silva, referring to the Japanese agricultural bank also known as Nochu. “They need to rip that band aid off and address negative carry in the securities portfolio,” de Silva tells Bloomberg News’...
Aug 29, 2024•35 min
Lending to law firms against portfolios of legal assets can generate hefty returns, according to North Wall Capital, the London-based credit investor. “We target 25%-plus IRRs, and we have historically outperformed that,” Fabian Chrobog, its chief investment officer and founder, says in Bloomberg Intelligence’s Credit Edge podcast. Separately, North Wall aims to make “mid teens” gains in middle-market private credit, Chrobog tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and BI senior credit analyst Tolu A...
Aug 22, 2024•45 min
AllianceBernstein sees opportunity in European and emerging market credit markets and is steering clear of energy sector debt. “High-quality European high yield, on a dollar-hedged basis, is attractive,” Will Smith, director of U.S. high-yield credit at AllianceBernstein, says in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. In EM corporate bonds, “you’re getting paid a lot more risk premium there — a lot more in spreads than you are in developed market credit markets,” Smith tells...
Aug 15, 2024•51 min
There are potential catalysts for the debt of cruise lines like Carnival and Royal Caribbean, as well as Rolls Royce and Ford, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. BI senior analysts Stephen Flynn and Aidan Cheslin join James Crombie of Bloomberg News in this edition of BI’s Credit Edge podcast to discuss the outlook for US and European credit, identifying situations where their teams’ research differs with consensus. UBS and Jaguar Land Rover have bonds trading wide to peers that could tighten,...
Aug 01, 2024•31 min
Small-cap US companies are at risk of default as debt comes due and the economy slows, according to Alan McKnight chief investment officer at Regions Bank. “Look at the Russell 2000 — over 50% of those names are non-earners right now. They’re actually unprofitable,” McKnight says in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “There’s a lot of names in that sort of realm that could be on the tipping point, particularly in light of when they have to refinance their debt,” he tells...
Jul 25, 2024•37 min
Antares Capital, the US-based private credit firm, is looking to expand in Europe and also sees opportunity in real estate, infrastructure and asset-backed finance. “In order to scale, we’d probably need to do an acquisition,” Tim Lyne, the direct lender’s chief executive officer, says in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “We are constantly evaluating Europe,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst David Havens. Lyne and ...
Jul 18, 2024•47 min
Politics and commercial real estate are the biggest perils for banks, according to Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analysts Arnold Kakuda and Jeroen Julius. “In terms of CRE, it hits mostly the smaller regional banks,” Kakuda tells Bloomberg News senior editor James Crombie in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “If the sovereign rating comes down or is put on negative outlook, bank ratings are likely to follow,” Julius says, referring to European financial instituti...
Jul 11, 2024•49 min
Private credit markets are under pressure from high interest rates, while excess demand is keeping spreads low, according to Wayne Dahl, co-portfolio manager for Oaktree’s global credit and investment grade solutions strategies. “I think there will be some general stress,” says Dahl in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “When people get excited, they put money in — the end investor has no choice but to invest that, and therefore you’ll maybe see spreads compress a little...
Jul 03, 2024•46 min
Commercial mortgage-backed securities are the best credit opportunity for the next 12 months, according to Oded Manor, global head of fixed income manager research at BlackRock. “CMBS is super-interesting because everyone hates it — or many people hate it,” says Manor in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “That market is already pricing a lot of the negative news, unlike many other parts,” Manor tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and BI Senior Credit Analyst Jody Lurie....
Jun 27, 2024•47 min
Up to a quarter of Europe’s high-yield borrowers can’t afford to pay the current high interest rates to refinance debt that’s coming due, according to alternative asset manager Arini. “The market has been very active in refinancing these companies but we still have a lot to do,” says Hamza Lemssouguer, founder and chief investment officer of Arini, in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. For as much as 25% of the market, “it’s just impossible to afford the current interest...
Jun 20, 2024•44 min
Private credit’s double-digit returns are here to stay, even as interest rates drop and risks rise, according to Arcmont Asset Management. “Our spreads have been very consistent for a decade,” says Mattis Poetter, the European private debt firm’s co-chief investment officer, in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “I think that’s sustainable,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Kat Hidalgo, and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst Robert Schiffman. In addit...
Jun 13, 2024•41 min
The best credit investments are in asset-backed securities, particularly those linked to US households, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. “We absolutely see opportunities for yield pickup there,” says Kay Herr, the firm’s chief investment officer for US fixed income, in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “The consumer’s going to be OK,” she tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst Julie Hung. The CIO meanwhile flags poten...
Jun 06, 2024•43 min
US companies with about $200 billion in debt — 10% of the junk market — can’t survive at prevailing elevated interest rates, according to Bank of America. “At the bottom decile, we are looking at issuers that are in most likelihood not going to be able to come out of this high-rate episode without doing something to their balance sheet,” says Oleg Melentyev, head of US high-yield strategy at Bank of America, in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “Half of that segment is ...
May 30, 2024•44 min
