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Hey, everyone, Ellie here wishing you a happy Friday. Well, what a week. Gosh, we've now been through two attorney general nominees this week. Last week, I wrote about Matt Gaetz and how I thought he was a disastrous pick.
I was asked several times throughout the week, do you think he'll make it as attorney general? And my answer was usually, I'm not the one to tell you what's going to happen on Capitol Hill, but all signs are trending towards no. Those files about the ethics report, about Matt Gaetz, the allegations against him relating to underage.
Women, it was inevitable that either the report or if not the report, the facts underlying it would continue to drip out. It didn't seem like that was survivable. Earlier on Thursday, he withdrew. And within hours, we got the next name, Pam Bondi. the former attorney general of the state of Florida. I'll probably be talking more about Pam Bondi in the coming days, maybe next week. My short take on Pam Bondi is she is qualified on paper. She's been a prosecutor for 20 years.
She was the attorney general of the state of Florida for eight years. This is how this works. Of course, your AG is going to be ideologically and politically aligned with the president. However, there are real questions. She denied the 2020 election results. I think that. puts real questions on her credibility, her independence. She was involved in a $25,000 donation, receiving it from the Trump Foundation.
before she made a decision not to join a lawsuit against him. I think there's going to be questions about that. I suspect she will get through. I think there's maybe a little bit of a curve, grading on a curve happening here after Gates. But I think she will get through. I think she will have all the Republicans supporting her and maybe even a Democrat or two. That is where we are. We'll dig into this more in the coming days and weeks.
In any event, we're going to reorient for a moment and talk about the Hush Money case. We're still waiting on this decision from Judge Mershon. It could come today, Friday. We thought it might come Wednesday or Thursday, but we know a lot more about the case. We had some really important developments this week.
And that's where we're focused. In the meantime, as always, love to hear your thoughts, questions, comments. Keep them coming. We're going to try to answer some of them, maybe as a year-end kind of thing. Keep sending them into letters at cafe.com. Thanks. Somebody needs to tell the Manhattan DA's office it's over. The hush money case against Donald Trump is moving inexorably towards its final resting place.
back on the same scrap heap it came from. But the DA's office isn't quite ready to give up just yet. In a court filing this week, prosecutors conceded that Trump's sentencing should be postponed while the parties litigate whether he has constitutional immunity and other.
novel issues arising from his status as president-elect. That part is entirely reasonable. But the marvel is that prosecutors somehow managed to type the following sentence without using Comic Sans font. Quote, consideration must be given to various non-dismissal options that may address any concerns raised by the pendency of a post-trial criminal proceeding during the presidency, such as deferral of all remaining criminal proceedings.
until after the end of the defendant's upcoming presidential term, end quote. In other words, the DA argues, we might still want to sentence this guy after he's done with his second term as president. in 2029. This, folks, is not a serious request. There's no black letter law here. Once again, Trump has put us firmly in the land of wild law school hypotheticals come to life, but there's no precedent for postponing a sentencing.
for four plus years after a conviction. To the contrary, New York law requires that sentencing be held, quote, without undue delay. The practicalities underscore the absurdity of the DA's suggestion. Think ahead. to the year 2029. We'll have an 82-year-old former two-term president facing sentencing on a nonviolent state-level Class E felony, the lowest level in New York, for conduct that occurred
12 plus years before at that point. Who knows who will even be doing what by the year 2029? Will Alvin Bragg? still be the DA. If he's not, the case can theoretically carry on without him, but he may be on to other things. What will happen to the trial and defense teams by then? Will the judge still be on the bench? What will the country look like? Will everyone still be healthy?
and viable. I might be a grandfather by 2029. That's actually literally true. I have a 19 year old, so I don't think so, but it's possible. There are a thousand variables at play. A lot changes in four years. It's over. Yes, there are legal issues that the parties and the courts can unwind if they care to. Trump's immunity claim first and foremost. But this case won't carry on while he's president, as the DA's office has apparently recognized, and maybe not even while he's president-elect.
In one sense, Donald Trump got very lucky. He won the election and now entirely unrelated to any substantive defense, he's scot-free. But Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg caught a break too. Given the case's inevitable demise, he'll likely dodge the appellate process and the real possibility that an appeals court would have thrown out his bizarre legal concoction on the merits. The problems with the Hush Money case were multitude.
It had been rejected by the feds at the Southern District of New York, Bragg's old office and mine, and even the FEC as a regulatory matter. Bragg's predecessor as Manhattan DA could have charged the case, but didn't, and later referred to star witness Michael Cohen as, quote, more than a problematic witness, end quote. The legal theory here was, shall we say, inventive. The DA took one expired state-level misdemeanor, stacked another expired state misdemeanor on top of that.
and then piled a federal campaign finance violation on top of that, and presto, an electroshocked state-level felony. No other state prosecutor anywhere, ever. has charged a federal campaign finance crime in state court, either as a count unto itself or a predicate underlying offense. There's good reason for that. Professor Rick Hasen.
A liberal expert on election law said in a different context, unrelated to the specific Trump case, that, quote, someone trying to use state legal process to find a criminal violation for use of federal campaign finance money. would not be merely frivolous, but quote, sanctionable, meaning so outrageous that a court could fine a lawyer who even raised that argument, the very same one upon which Bragg's case depends.
In the end, the two people who benefited most from this case were the opposing principals. Regardless of the unsatisfying outcome for prosecutors, Brad now has ensured that he has 100% name recognition and will be reelected for as long as he wants, perhaps to higher office in heavily blue Manhattan.
and perhaps beyond. It's an unavoidable conundrum built into any system of partisan elected local prosecutors in any jurisdiction dominated by one political party. And Manhattan always votes over 80% Democratic. Any office seeker has every rational incentive to go after an unpopular politician from the other side, no matter the legal contortions involved or the ultimate outcome.
Now, here's where I make the standard disclosure that Bragg is a friend and a former colleague of mine at the SDNY. I've always liked and deeply respected him, and I still do. We can't possibly know for sure. but I strongly suspect that Bragg believes in this case. I don't think he brought it out of ill intentions, but it's impossible for Bragg or anybody. seeking election or reelection as a DA to completely divorce the political implications from a high-profile charging decision.
The problem is not only that Bragg charged his case, which was plainly the least serious of the four indictments, even if we assume it was legally valid. but that it was the first to be indicted and the only one tried. He poisoned the well for everything that followed. If you have four arguments and you lead with the worst one, you're sabotaging your own cause.
Beyond that, Bragg's charge was such an obvious stretch that it played right into Trump's persecution narrative on the campaign trail. Trump's serial prosecutions inarguably helped him emerge from the pack and win the Republican primary. Now, there are too many factors to credit or blame anyone for Trump showing in the 2024 general election his best ever, but it's clear now that the general populace was entirely unmoved by the Hush Money case. Heck, in Manhattan itself.
the scene of the crime. Trump did five points better in 2024 than in 2020, moving from 12% to 17% of the vote. Trump gained more percentage points in Manhattan than he did across the entire country. It's over now. Bragg's case will never reach a conclusion and Trump is headed back to the White House. He's not getting sentenced now. He's not getting sentenced in 2029. The DA has done enough damage as is. It's time to let it go. Thanks for listening, everyone. Stay safe, stay informed.
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