Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts- More Super Bowls In Vegas! Purdy’s Postseason Problems, Brunson The Next Star In NYC, Sharp or Square

advertisers and friends, media colleagues. A couple of players was that why don't they hold all the Super Bowls in Las Vegas? For years and years, this was a big stigma. Remember years ago Tony Romo wanted to do some fantasy football league in the NFL wouldn't allow it. It was always ridiculous. Vegas has legalized gambling, but told the NBA warned them about Tim Donneghey, they don't want stigma around gambling. It's the gambling sports gambling mecca of the United States.

So there's been a lot of gambling controversies, very few have been in Las Vegas. They're on the alert for scammers. So finally they put hockey in there, and now football it's all crushing and there's no problem with the Raiders. Players make so much money. Now I worry more about collegiate players and that stuff, and officials and that stuff, and even you know, That's why I always felt the NFL should, you know, make officials full time employees, because

it holds them to a higher level of accountability. Not that they don't feel accountable, but you know, it's the difference between being in a company and being a consultant. There's a different responsibility, a different level, and I think you always have to have your eye out for stuff.

We saw the college football player at LSU. College kids, they're trying to make ends, meet their stars in college pre nil, I always felt there was probably a player too on every roster that was taking a more than a ham sandwich in a twenty. But you just don't know, and so you can't speculate an individual players or teams. But I think Vegas and Miami are perfect. Phoenix nothing against it, but you've got Scottsdale over there, Glendale over there,

downtown Phoenix. They cut it into threes. Miami's got perfect weather, New Orleans is fine. Although New Orleans. To spend a week in New Orleans, you kind of run out of things to do besides drink and eat. And I think Las Vegas. I mean you can you can golf, The golf is stunning, you can gamble, you can shop. I mean, if you wanted to a couple of days go to Los Angeles, it's a forty minute flight. So I think Vegas is a perfect spot. I think the stigma would

legalized gambling was always silly. I mean, there are those of us that I've been talking about gambling on the air my entire career. There's no stigma. Every guy I know gambles. I gamble everybody I know, and I gamble responsibly. I think ninety nine percent of people do. Do people eat responsibly? Do they always drink responsibly? Do they always drive responsibly? There's always going to be people that are irresponsible. But I think Vegas works, and especially having a covered stadium.

You know, Dallas can get really cold in the winter. In Miami does not. It rains, but it doesn't get terribly cold. So if you know this idea that you have to mix it up around the country, no, you don't we hold Marty Gron one place. You know, Rock and Eve in one place. A lot of Hollywood Awards are in one place. You have to move everything. You don't have to. Super Bowl would be two three places. I'd be totally okay with it. And I just think

from the people I talked to. I talked to about four former players, about three current players, members of the media, advertisers, and everybody said, this is the hotel capital of North America. There's great restaurants everywhere, There's multiple things to do. I remember going to a super Bowl in Jacksonville where they literally had one hotel. They had to bring in cruise ships and they ended up with a Super Bowl. I never bought into this. Well, you got to share the

super Bowl. I don't want it in Kansas City. It's too cold in February. Let's put the best players in the world under a dome in cold weather or in warm weather. Don't let the weather dictate the outcome. The weather bad weather, ows's always punishes the greater quarterbacks, you know. I mean, it's like you, you don't want to reduce the effectiveness of Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady in their prime.

It's December games happen, but if you can avoid it with a neutral field game, you don't schedule potential blizzards. All right, John Middlecoff, his podcast at the volume is three and out, former NFL scout. All right, let's talk about a little bit about the Super Bowl. But I really want to dial in on brock Purty. So I saw a stat that was interesting. I don't think you deny this. Five of the eight playoff quarters for brock Purty have not been good, and they've been a favorite,

and they've been at home. So brock Purty's rate of negatively graded dropbacks in the playoffs has been twenty three percent. So that's bad. That would have been the worst in the NFL of any quarterback with two hundred plus dropbacks. He's been bad in the playoffs. He's had a couple of great late drives Mahomes who had a much much lower a very good negative dropback rate, right, very few. It's been even better in the playoffs. It's like six

percent to Perty's twenty three percent. And he's gone on the road twice against you know, Green Bay's defense and Detroit's defense. I mean, one's crap. The other ones average Buffalo's defense and the Baltimore defenses, especially Baltimore's much better than Green Band Detroit. So Mahomes against much better defenses on the road, has almost no negative dropbacks almost none. Purty at home against bad defenses has an egregiously bad negative dropback rate. So my take is I think this

Kansas City's defense is elite. Most people just don't know anybody outside of maybe Snead and Chris Jones, but they can fricking move if Purty struggles, and I like the under is my favorite bet in this game. I think it's low scoring. If Purty struggles, I mean, really coughs

it up. Could you argue Kyle Goes he got outplayed for three quarters by Love, outplayed by two and a half quarters by lousy in the Super Bowl, that Sam Donald would go into camp battling Purty and whoever played better would win that job.

loyal to this guy. They really like him. Like one thing happened when Trey Lance was pretty bad for them in his starts, the team never really gravitated toward him. And when I say the team, I mean they're Star Corps players that group like He's beloved in the locker room and brock perty and that buys you a lot of juice with this team. Trent William, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Deebo, Samuel Brandon, Ayuk. I mean, these guys are not going anywhere, and they're some of the best

players in the league. The other thing is Kyle is even in the struggles when you can run his offense. That was the problem with Troy. He like had to change his offense, and He's like, my whole thing is my offense. So I was that's why they loved Party, And I'm sure you saw the story. Jed Yorke told him that Kyle in twenty twenty two in training camp said eight, I think the best this is like two weeks in, the best quarterback on the roster. This guy

we just drafted the seventh round. They're like what and he was. He wasn't making that up now, I was going to those practices. It's hard to tell because he's running with the threes. But they kept him on the roster for a reason, like the coach really liked him. The rain situation in Green Bay, he was really bad. I do think the second half against Detroit, like I thought their defense really let him down. The forty nine

Ers are an offensive team. When you go back to the last Super Bowl these two teams played, the Niners were a defensive team and the Chiefs were an unreal offensive team. Well look at this this year. The Niners are the third scoring offense. They're very dependent on Brock playing well in scoring a lot of points because their defense the last couple of weeks it's reruly been leaking oil for a while. And the Chiefs are the number

two overall scoring defense. So this is actually a clash between the forty nine Ers offense and the Chiefs defense. But their offense goes as Brock play. So when he's a little off. Their defense is no longer dominant, So yeah, it's not for them to win the Super Bowl. To me, he's got to be way better than he was because I don't have as much face on the faith on the defense. John Lynch was just their defensive coordinator was saying they were embarrassed by the effort in the NFC

Championship game. So the defense is going through some stuff. Now when Deebo's healthy, they have so many options and you can run the ball with Christian McCaffrey. They throw a lot of quick screens. They just need Brocking out to turn it over. And that's the one thing. He's got a lot of turnover worthy plays. And when he was really humming throughout the season, when they were beating the shit out of Dallas and Philly, he was not doing that. So it just depends what guy you get.

And this gets back to and I'm sure when the draft gets closed and when the draft happens, the character of these guys, the mindset of these guys. Brock's a pretty serious dude. So like he's gone through like it's been a rough little stretch for him, but I think they like where he's at mentally, and I have actually more faith in him, the guy and the wiring than

I do sometimes the physical attributes. Obviously, he's a pretty good runner, but his arm, you know, it can be a little hit or missed sometimes.

knew his limitations. That's why I think Brock pretty moving is essential because it doesn't matter how much film you have. If you can move, you can move. You don't know when it's coming. But I think I do think Spags and I think the Chiefs have the best corners in the league. I think if they can generate a pass rush, you know, if I was facing Purty, my takeaway would be crowd Debo. Take out the bubble screens, be prepared for him. Don't let him run brock On play actions

to stop the run. Take your chances with Ayuk over the top. If he beats you, he beats you. But take away take those bubble screens away from Debo where he's a train downhill. I don't know. I don't think San Francisco is going to generate a ton of offense. You've acknowledged that San Francisco's pass rush is really it's kind of hit and miss outside of Bosa.

to a lot of easy completions. It's why when they're successful running the ball with McCaffrey, their offense can look pretty easy because guys get wide open because you're biting on the run. And then guys they have so much talent with their offensive weapons. When you can slow down the run, it throws them off a little bit. So to me, it kind of starts with Christian McCaffrey. It's why a lot of people are saying he was the MVP threat the year because he is, I mean, he's

one of the best players in the league. They said something on the AFC Championship game it was either nance or Romo that the Chiefs led the league this year and batted passes at the line of scrimmage like their defensive line. Well, what happened a couple times against the Lions. Hutchinson's like six foot seven, batted a couple of balls down.

Do they bat four balls down? Well, if you only get twenty eight to thirty pass attempts, or you know, Kyle ideally would be twenty five, that's four wasted passes, right, Or does it happen once? Because sometimes Kyle's schemed pass is why it's gonna work, either as a big first down or an explosive play. If you tip that ball, and you can with Brock because he's a shorter player,

it can throw you off. That's some little thing to keep an eye on because they bat a lot of balls and Brocass the balls to get bad and so do they try it. I don't ever understand wy Kyle doesn't move it now. His offense is not a drop back passing game where they do right now sprint options. But I would try to get him on the move a little bit more, but they just that's not really part of the Shanahan you know operation.

be the difference. I think Grimes was out. But my takeaway and the Knicks is this, First of all, I always thought Jalen Brunson was a one A Maybe he's a one twenty seven a game. I love his leadership, his IQ, his toughness. I think he's the best Nick sent youwing. It was never a huge Carmelo fan didn't give you anything on the second on the defensive end, and a little bit selfish, wouldn't step back and hit threes for years. He just got stubborn on the twos.

So if Bronson's an A, I do believe you need a very strong two. I think Og and Randall are threes. Good threes. And at the end of that game, if Brunson's not hitting, forget Randall because Randall would be slowed down by a D. He's not getting any cheap points. Eight He's the best low post defender in the game. And I look at the Knicks and what I've seen Jason in the last three years with them is patience. And part of me is like, just go get a two, And then part of me is like, no, that's the

nixt You've been desperate, Amari Stodemeier. You always reach on people. Is there a player in the league if not this trade deadline, next trade deadline, because I think they needed to so address if you think the Knicks do. If Brunton's not hitting late like he wasn't against the Lakers, boy, they go dry fast. I mean they go drive fast. Now Randal didn't play, but I don't think Og or Randall are elite scores per se.

for who that next guy is. I thought the og Innobi trade was was genius because it didn't waste any sort of super legitimate asset in terms of their pursuit

of an eventual star. I think one of the reasons why that Laker game looked the way it did is the Knicks are very much like a physically imposing team, Like they are very much like a power beat you up for forty eight minutes, classic Tom Thibodeo type of team, right, and when you take Og and Julius out, they just become small really fast, especially with Mitchell Robinson out of the lineup because he's been injured, although he might come back before the end, but I mean, this won't come

as any secret to anybody who's listened to you and me talk about this before, but we're both really high on Jaylen Brunson, and I think like I think Jalen Brunson has entered into that conversation with the best guards in the league. Like I think he's just on that tier. We're we're on an extended stretch now where he not only that he's improving and like to take it even a step further.

he New York Loud. He's classic Villanova tunes out the noise.

postseason run. Now, in his defense, he was hurt. He had hurt his ankle right before the playoffs and was pretty beat up throughout that playoff run. But to your point, the Knicks have already shown us they can make some noise with just Jalen Jyleen Brunson, so you can imagine what a number two would do for them. Now, the question is who The guy that I know that they've been waiting on is Joel Embiid. But I do get

somewhat concerned about with his injury history. Now like here we are again with him with his knee struggling to

make it through a regular season. But I think Joel Embiid is a guy that had their eyes on I think if the war, if the Lakers just absolutely like floundered this year, like just an absolute disaster end of the season, I put like a like a five percent chance that someone like Lebron could potentially either opt out of his deal this summer and sign there on like a mid level exception, or opt in and do the James Harden where basically you opt in and ask for a trade and then try to do that Because I

look at Lebron James as basically, even at this phase of his career, just a way better version of Julius Randall, which kind of is a shoe in fit to that position, you know what I mean. So like, but I think I think when it comes to the next patience has been the name of the game. Jalen Brunson has bought them the ability to be good while they wait for the right guy. But at the end of the day, there's no reason to jump at anything unless it is the I wouldn't trade for a single guy unless he

was better than Jalen Brunson. It literally is that simple. That's right to me.

I mean that's why the great Jeremy Shockey was a great New York giant. Just not ready for the city quite right. If you go to the history of New York, go look at their stars. Jeter, Aaron Judge, Eli Manning, what's the theme go home? All about the sport, grown ups with the media, good background, adult, you know, relationships with family. It's funny. Jeter close to his family, Eli Manning, Brunson's dad in the NBA, Aaron Judge. A lot of

times they're small town guys. If you come to New York as a star a Rod, you're a big free agent and you get all this expectation, it eats you up. Jalen's the opposite cast off for Dallas. All he has to do is prove stuff. Like Villanova, he is your classic. I mean, Eli Manning went to Ole, Miss Jeter, struggled in the minor leagues. Who's Aeron Judge. He's from Fresno, New York. Has a proto type. You're a little overlooked, undervalued,

good background, family college. I think that's so the league's getting so young that these older players that can bring maturity to me. Jason. I mean, it's just it's like it's like I say about Lebron. It's like Lebron, it could be a you know, he's like a coach, general manager, star on the floor. He's thinking about who am I, who should I have relationships with, Who can I elevate, who should be on the floor with me. I mean he's thinking through every possession.

in that environment, he's completely exceeded expectations. We have a couple of big Knicks that helped produce soups tonight, and I talked with them about this behind the scenes, and like, it's crazy how that one singular signing transformed the entire landscape of the Knicks future because they got like, think about Jalen Brown just signed a deal where in the final year he's gonna make like seventy million, Okay, like in Jalen Brunson's making in the twenties, and he's giving

you superstar production. Like it's it's crazy what that one move has done for that franchise.

seven percent without him. And then you have Brandon Ayuk, who has really surged this year to become an elite top seven eight wide receiver. In fact, the weakness you would say is, well, the quarterback doesn't throw a great deep ball. Quarterbacks not great if the weather's bad. But I think Kansas City's defense generally great defenses. We think of them Ray Lewis. We can name the players. You know, Bosa, but kiss Richard Dent. You can name great players from

great defenses. Right, Kansas City are like well, I like Chris Jones, best corners in the league, incredibly active wide receivers, multiple paths. They had nine more sacks than the Niners, twenty six more pressures. I think this is an all time classic gifted offense and one of the most undervalued defenses I can ever remember. So I like the under forty seven and a half. I think there's gonna be yards and explosion plays, but not a lot of timetowns.

ignoring the total. I will tell you right now. Professional betters have been coming in on the under in this game for ten days at this point, and it's really interesting. The over up until about forty eight hours ago was getting fifty seven, fifty eight to fifty nine percent of the tickets, meaning that's what the squares the public are doing, and the under was getting about sixty percent of the money.

That's professional betters. In the last forty eight hours, the under is now also getting the majority of the tickets, and the under is getting the majority of the money. So I do think you'll see this number go down a little bit. I bet the under. I will probably end up being heavier on the under than I will on the side.

He'll be nervous. Kyle Shanahan may be tight. Given the history this defense is they allowed teen points a game in a league that has pivoted in a conference with all the best quarterbacks in the league that's pivoted offense. And if you go look at who the Chiefs faced, it was, it was Golf, it was Trevor Lawrence, it was Jalen Hurts, it was Josh Allen, regular and post. They never allowed over thirty points. The Niners did three times,

and they mostly faced Sam Howells, Gino, Drew Lock. Like I think the gap in defense, you just know some of the Niner players. I don't think it's a great defense, do you no?

entire season. To un road the Bills, the Ravens allowed an average of four points per game in the second half. And I think the real incredible. It's incredible, and I think the real key to this game. And it's also why people like the under Andy Reid this season has played more conservatively in the second half. He is not not because not on purpose, but the offensive game plan has been slower. I believe they both want to go slow. I believe both of these teams believe in their kickers.

At least the Chiefs really do. Kyle Shannon is not the kind of guy to go forward and fourth down. You are less likely to do it when you're facing Patrick Mahomes when you believe in your defense, like I think the Niners do. I think the key to This game really is going to be how the defensive coordinators adjust in the second half, and if the Chiefs get out to a lead, how is that going to spook Kyle Shanahan. How is that going to spook brock Purty.

We've seen it all offseason. The best quarterbacks in the game make bad decisions when they fall behind. Against Patrick Mahomes, he is a complete model wrecker. You cannot account for that in any of the handicapping, And a lot of the conversations this week about handicapping this game have been about how do you account for a recency bias with what the Chiefs have been doing, and how do you account for what the Niners have done all season long?

And I think that you have to consider is recency bias something that is a better indication of how the Chiefs have gotten better, how Andy Reid has changed his game plan, and to bringing full circle, how Steve Spagnola has made adjustments in the second half of every game this season, but especially in the last six weeks of this season. I think that'll be the key. We've seen it in every playoff game this year, and by the way,

we didn't see Steve Wilkes do that. The Lions lost that game because the Lions made bad plays, not because the Niners all of a sudden. We're playing so much better defensively, and I think you've got a zone heavy scheme on defense against Patrick Mahomes, whose receivers don't have very big average depths of target. You're senders thought to get sort of dink and dime until the Chiefs are scoring and then you're.

pass rush outside of Bosa. So I think what we're looking at is and I think you hit on something. There's two whammys that work in Kansas City's favorite Mahomes screws with everybody's head. You tend to call a more aggressive game because of Mahomes. Nobody's calling wacky plays because I brought purty, Maybe the opposite. Secondly, Kyle's lost games in the Super Bowl he had won. Does Andy Reid get into his head? Does it get into his head? I asked Drew Brees that today. I said, you know,

you go to the Super Bowl. You didn't have this litany. I mean, the Niners have been great for thirty years. Mostly they haven't won since ninety four. This team has been great for six years. Right, that shit gets tight, right Like, I can say whatever you want. This is going to be a loose Kansas City team with the best head coach and DC duo in the league, playing with confidence, an underdog. I think if it's close laid, I think all the intangibles go to Kansas City.

in the moment. And I think to your point about Shanahan, to your point about brock Party, and I don't think this is necessarily specific to them, but in this case it will be. Then Mahomes makes you do things you

wouldn't normally do. And if you've got the monkey on your back because you haven't been able to close the deal in the Super Bowl and you're going against Patrick Mahomes, Let's remember Patrick Mahomes lost the Super Bowl against the Bucks because he had no healthy offensive pac lineman none. Like all of these things, you get clarity looking back

in history. So I do think that the context of Mahomes playing for legacy and being driven enough to know that's what he's playing for beyond this season, I think that's an X factor.

a fairly obvious way to map this came out. I want to see mahomes as little as possible, a lot of debo, a lot of Christian McCaffrey and deebo in some running sets, which we know we can do, but it felt like he did more of that pre content pre contract than both. I don't have the data to support that. But the way to win this game for them is I'm not putting it on brock pretty shoulders and we're not going to get cheap yards over the top.

This is a debo Christian McCaffrey game. Secondly, is that San Francisco and I can't figure it out because nobody's tied to their play sheet, and more than Kyle Shanahan, they've not been a great first quarter team in the playoffs. Green Bay out played him, to Troy out played him. So it's like you're not gonna get major yards early. They're gonna be fairly cautious, I would think with Brock pretty early in the Super Bowl right like, they're not

going explosion plays. You're not gonna get cheap crap over the top because the Chiefs pass rush is excellent and their corners are, in my opinion, the best young corners in the game. I'm actually surprised to forty seven's a lot of yards when you have Christian McCaffrey. That's all against the Chiefs defense. Baltimore was reluctant to run. They could have. You know, Gus Edwards first run was fifteen yards,

his second carry was in the second half. They could have run, So that number to me, he seems high.

change their game plan and change their style when you're playing Patrick Mahomes, I think the Niners. I'm not trying to avoid your question. I don't have a strong opinion on Perdy. I would probably lean to the under. I think it's lined about right. I don't see a huge edge in Brock Purdy in his passing yardage. I think I do see Deebo Samuel over his receiving yardage as a bonus because I think he's going to line up

in the slot. And I think that's a little bit of an advantage because you're not having to go against really good corners against the Chiefs, and you're going against smaller linebackers, and so if they are going to find some success, that could be where it is. And I also agree with you. Look, if the Niners are winning this game, they're doing it on the ground, thrashing a mediocre Chiefs run defense. I won't say terrible Chiefs run defense,

it's mediocre. It's a mediocre defense. So I think the advantage here is to run McCaffrey and run Deebo Samuel. Do what I say you're betting over the McCaffrey yardage. I don't think so, because I do think that the Chiefs know they'd almost rather put the ball in brock Perty's hands than let McCaffrey beat him because he is so talented. So those are a couple of tricky props I think to bet. I will tell you one bet that I love that I think is underpriced right now.

Christian McCaffrey. First rush over three and a half yards happens sixty to sixty five percent at the time, and then the circumstances, and then the percentage increases with circumstances like we are looking at this week with the defense that isn't quite as good as what the Niners were always facing. So if you're looking for sort of a sneaky fun prop, that'll be over quickly. They're right away if you're going to win that one. But that's one that I like.

so people aren't getting into shootouts. And when you don't get into shootouts with Mahomes, you find comfort in running and eating the clock because Mahomes is in your head. So people are much more willing to run against Kansas City. I don't think their run defense is bad. They're two athletics get linebacker. For it to be bad, they really have good, twitchy linebackers. Yeah, but this defense has the best corners, an excellent pass rush, so people attack the

run game more. And I think, again, I don't think it's a great run defense. It's not Baltimore, but I think it's a little over discussed how poor it is based on if you knew you didn't have to get into a shootout with Mahomes, you'd want to run the damn clock, so we'd get two less possessions. So people go into a week and say we're going to commit to the run. Well, if you commit to the run, you run the ball more and you run the ball

with more success. So I think people have gone into games with Kansas City thinking, hey, we got to be good situationally in the red zone because when we get chances. We got to score touchdown not field goals. That was forever, that's been the mantra with Kansas City. You got to get touchdowns, not field goals. Teams go for it and fourth down you don't really have to with this team. I ring the ball. So I think the defense for

Kansas City is excellent against the pass. I think it's okay again, that's the run.

And the Niners, while they can be explosive, are more than likely recognizing that their ability to win this game is going to be dependent on their ability to run the ball. So as long as they can be committed to that, I like our chances on the under. Do I think either do? I think either side is a lock? Not really. I will say one thing you want to consider when teams win the Super Bowl, they tend to win by a field goal or more so, if you

really like the Chiefs. Fun alternative bet to make Chiefs minus two and a half at plus one thirty one thirty five because you're getting better odds. And if you think it's going to be a close game and the Chiefs are going to win, might will take the Chiefs at minus two and a half, which is the limit of where you want to be. I'm sort of taking an outline here and getting a little bit of extra juice.