The volume. Grab your smartphone download the game Time app. It's a new feature called game Time Picks that makes getting tickets for your favorite live events even easier. Game Time Picks filters out the fluff to show you only the incredible deals on great seats, so you don't have to waste time searching through thousands of tickets. Take the guests work out of buying concert tickets with game Time. Download the game Time app. Creat an account. Real quick
code is Colin. That's me for twenty bucks off your first purchase. Terms apply again. Creat an account. The redeem code is Colin Coln for twenty bucks off. Download game Time today. What time is it? Game Time? If you wonder why the NFL is king on television, twenty seven to twenty tonight was a great example by that much a doe decides the game. Listen. Baltimore was outplayed for big chunks of this thing and almost almost tied it. They almost certainly would have gone for two in the win.
And that's why Baltimore is so dangerous. You know. Lamar Jackson did not throw the ball down the field effectively, nor has he ever as well as Patrick Mahomes. Although Mahomes did not throw the ball down the field much last year because it was one of the worst receiving cores in the league. With Worthy, now that's a deep threat. They've added some dimensions and over the top receiver Juju
Smith Schuster will become more productive over time. He just got reacquired, so Watson Rice now where she Rice looks like a number one. Worthy's going to be a gadget guy early. I don't think he's a heavy volume guy, a nine to ten catch guy, but he adds an element they didn't have. He's an over the top playmaker. But it's interesting watching Baltimore. They had a lot of offensive penalty, especially early in the game. They don't throw
the ball down the field enough. And then you get that final drive by Lamar Jackson, where I mean, honestly, he reminds me of like a great high school player where he's just so much better than everybody else on the field. He's like a high school football game and there's one D one prospect and it's the quarterback and he's just running around making all these plays happen. Lamar Jackson makes other great pro football players look slow and unathletic,
and that's why I'll always defend him. He's not Mahomes and Peyton Manning probably wasn't Brady, you know, and Mickelson wasn't Tiger Woods, and Barkley was an MJ. Lamar Jackson is so productive, he cares so much. Now, I thought, my one real negative with Lamar Jackson you can't get hit that many times. I'm sorry, you can't last seventeen games in the regular season, two or three playoff games played like that. Lamar's lost weight, he's thinner, and he
took a beating tonight. Now I think this game means so much. Lamar not gonna slide, He's not gonna run out of bounds against Kansas City. So I don't think Lamar is going to play like this, this this sort of physical football game on average. But he took a beating tonight, and that Kansas City defense is fast and physical that you have to reduce. You can't play like that. But I will defend Lamar to the very end. He is such a remarkable player, you know, he just he
doesn't throw the ball down the field consistently. But he finally has a really nice group of receivers. Isaiah Likelely is terrific. That's the football game. And the fact that that guy went down in the back of the end zone. I thought he broke his ribs. I mean, he just slammed down on the corner where it's not you know, it's not padded very well, gets up and he's making plays. What a gamer. You know, I look at my notes over the course of the game. I think here's the
really good news for Kansas City. Last year. It's often discussed right ad nauseum, that receiving course bad Rashi Rice was young. He felt like maybe a two. He felt like a one tonight. You know, now, is he a great one? Is he a top five to one? Is he see the lamb? Is he Devontae Adams? No, but he felt like a real, go to, high volume, thirteen targets, nine catch guy for them they have now, Noah, great, they've got a second tight end. Watson's around, Juju Smith,
Schuster and again Xavi are worthy. You know, I joked when they drafted him, I'm like, he's a track guy. He's one hundred and sixty five pounds. You know, I don't think that he's going to lead them to the Super Bowl. But he adds a dimension to an offense that since Tyreek Hill left, they don't have a downfield threat. So you know, for the longest time of the game, he just had that one, you know, reverse touchdown, but blown coverage later he gets a second touchdown and you
have to account for him. You know, that's the bottom line. Last year, you didn't have to account for anybody. Nobody scared you down the field. Well, now they have a one in Rashi Rice, have a downfield threat. They have multiple Watts and Noah Gray, Travis Kelcey. They've solved their weapons issue. For the record, how the hell did Isaiah Pichecko? What did he drop to the seventh round? How did they get him in the seventh round? That guy's insane.
It's just it's amazing to me. You get to the fourteenth player in the NBA draft, you're out of players. Rock Perty's the last gun I taken. And Isaiah Pacheco I think he was a seventh round guy. God, how did all these gms watch film and just keep passing on him. He's impossible to bring down, run so hard he can catch it out of the backfield. What a weapon he is? So Kansas City's weapons shortage, they're gonna be fine there. And this is you're just looking at
two great organizations. I love watching these two play. And there's a reason Kansas City keeps winning Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes. You know, they led twenty to ten at one point at I kind of felt first half, I thought Baltimore was just kind of trying to find its footing. They weren't throwing the ball down the field. Second half, Kansas City and that screen game pulls away. I thought, you know, if you watch that game, you could say Kansas City
controlled big chunks of it. And here comes Lamar just putting the team on his back, taking too many shots, running down the field, making big plays. The guy's just an Alzheimer, just an absolute ald timer. But you know, sports is like this. You know, if you take Tiger Woods out, think how many tour events Mickelson wins. I mean, Philip he had to have over like forty five tour wins. Didn't he take out one guy? Take out Barkley and
it changes take out MJ. It changes Barkley's career with titles, take out John Elway's career, Joe Montana, Brady, There's so many great athletes who we spend so much time criticizing because they can't beat the legend. I talked about that on FS one today. God Lamar is just so unique and so gifted, but he took a beating tonight and
you just can't play that way. A day with Baltimore and Kansas City each to night, all the weapons, all the talented players on the perimeter and running backs, I kept thinking, does Buffalo match up with these guys now that Stefan Diggs is out? Like I'm watching all these weapons for Kansas City and Baltimore, including their quarterbacks. You know who matches up in the AFC Houston. Houston's got these kind of weapons, adding Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Nico'collins,
c J. Stroud, Like I'm both these teams tonight. I mean it's tight ends, it's wide receivers, it's slot guys, it's running backs, it's all time quarterbacks. You know Buffalo is I like cook a couple good tight ends, a rookie receiver. You know, Buffalo maybe what Kansas City was last year, and they may be weapons short. And that's why a lot of people, myself included kind of like Houston. I mean, at some point last year may have been the year to beat Kansas City. That may have been
the year. You know, they weren't going to have home field, They couldn't beat you in a track meet. They had the gate keep the games pretty close and low scoring. Now this team's back to I mean again, this is Worthy's first game. What's Xavi, You're Worthy going to do? When we gate through thirteen? We ten through seventeen. So last year may have been the year to get Kansas City. What a night. I chewed two pieces of my neuro gum to stay up tonight. I'm not messing around now.
I may be staring at the ceiling at one in the morning. That was a beauty. Sometimes I feel so lucky to do what I do for a living. I'm sitting there tonight. I ordered door Dash, eating some Mexican food, and I'm sitting there watching that and I'm like, I mean, this is how good is this? Arrowhead? Mahomes Reed, Harball, Lamar Jackson. I'll just say it again, Baltimore didn't play particularly well and it was this close. So you can sell all your Ravens stock. I'm buying it. I didn't
think they played that well. I didn't think Lamar played that well. And he's driving him down against that incredible defense, you know, because of Reid and Mahomes, that Kansas City defense. He'll just never get the love. It is so fast, so twitchy, consistent pass rush, Chris Jones, edge rush, linebackers that move well. That's it where Baltimore probably goes for
two and has a chance to win. When you don't play particularly well on the road and narrowhead and almost beat the Chiefs, I'd be worried these two will meet again. That's what it feels like to me. One of the more interesting games this weekend is Colorado and Deon Sanders and all he brings to the table at Nebraska. Now, Travis Hunter and Shader Sanders for the Buffaloes are the two best players in the game, and they alone may be able to carry Colorado to the win. But I
like Nebraska for a lot of reasons. Number one is, if you go to last year, nobody lost more close games down the stretch than Nebraska. They were close. They needed a couple of transfers, they needed to get a little older on the defensive side. It didn't matter if it was Iowa, it was Maryland, it was Michigan State. They lost by a field goal, it felt like every week, and they were shooting themselves in the foot with a
lot of ugly turnovers. This defense now is different. Six seniors, five junior start and that matters a lot of starts against the Colorado offense and offensive line that I haven't loved for the last couple of years. Again, Colorado's got the two best players in this game, maybe the three or four. Best depth experience I like Nebraska. The other thing is that Colorado has by and large last three matchups is at one Nebraska's not overlooking anybody. Also, I
tend to look at programs. I think there's baby steps. I think when you take over a program, first of all, the first sign you're doing it right is you're closing the gap. Nebraska last year close losses. Generally those kind of teams the following year start turning those into close wins, and then the following year, if you have the right
coach and the right players, you have decisive wins. I don't think Nebraska is in a decisive win territory yet against the better teams on their schedule, but I don't think Colorado is one of the better teams on their schedule. I like Nebraska by ten points. I think their defense, though it won't be a perfect game A Shadure Sanders, he moves well. I really like him. I mean, I almost feel like if Shadure Sanders, if you're gonna judge him just on football, he could be the number one
pick in the draft. His ability to place the ball, moving pocket, moving left, moving moving forward. He has tremendous ball placement, and he's kind of what everybody's looking for. He can win in the pocket, he can win off script. So I think Colorado is gonna score some points to be a handful. But I think Matt Ruhle situationally, is a better coach than Dion. Dion's a bigger presence. Dion
maybe a better recruiter. But I mean Nebraska was I looked it up this morning, top thirty and tackles for loss last season and now this defense six seniors, five juniors, is even older. They got that new quarterback, Dylan Reyola.
They like him.
They are more than capable at quarterback. He's not Shugar Sanders, but he's fine. Nebraska at home more experienced defense. Matt Rule losing close to now winning close. I'm gonna take him by about eight to ten points here, Litt thirty three twenty four kind of feels like that to me. I like the Huskers, all right, the game of the day, it's on fock is Texas their first ever meeting in the Big House against Michigan. It's remarkable to think about two brands that big that have never faced in the
big house. Listen, I was a Michigan believer all last year. I mean, Harbaugh on the sidelines are not They were hammering people. But Michigan lost eight of eleven offensive starters, a star quarterback, a star receiver, a star back, top offensive lineman, and those were also in many instances leaders. So not only do you lose Jim Harbaugh, which I think the cultural vibe of the toughest physicality will remain
even if this coach isn't the right coach. My feeling is, I mean, Mark Helfrich wasn't the perfect fit for Chip Kelly, but for a year you couldn't tell the difference. I think there's a lot of momentum program momentum for Michigan, but they just lost too many leaders and too much firepower on offense. And I think they're a team that will be able to win a certain way. I think Texas can win anyway, shootout, close, They're better at quarterback.
Now they lost three receivers to the NFL, but it's Texas, it's Sark. I don't worry about the offense. I talked to Sark this week. He said it's hard for him to differentiate in some instances starters from backups with Texas, and we tend to rush to a judgment with these high profile coaches A Kiffin, A Sark, a Lincoln Riley, a Harbaugh, you can't. This stuff takes two and three years, even with big brands to get up to speed. So you're in the Ohio state class, you're in the Georgia
and Alabama class. This is the first time I look at Texas and think, yeah, they can go toe to toe with anybody. I didn't like him on the back end.
Last year.
Washington exposed that. Michael Pennix exposed that I think Texas has a chance to play for the national championship. I think they bring back more experience that offensive line for Texas. Now that's some first and second round talent. That's a lot of starts. They may have some new receivers, that's a lot of starts and quinn ewers from diet to His play on the field is a little bit more structured to me last year than what I saw initially. Was not a big fan initially, just played to loose
to J Cutler. To me, I like Texas here now again. I think it's a pretty low scoring game. I think Michigan has some top defenders are at home. Even good college teams can struggle away from home. I looked at this morning, get opened at Texas minus four. It's now Texas minus seven. I think the Longhorns win. I think it's probably pretty close. But I think you'll watch that game and from a more dynamic offense to the better quarterback, I think you're gonna feel like Texas. They may stumble
a little early, intimidating big house. I think they pull away late a little bit like how Michigan beat Ohio State last couple of years. Physicality leaned on him late third quarter on. You're going to feel like the better team, the better roster, the better chance of the National Championship is Texas. I like the horns here by about six. NFL Week one is here in a new season means new ways to get in on the action at DraftKings sports book and official sports betting partner of the NFL.
So fans have spoken they want to bet on touchdowns. Draft Kings hurt us. They're delivering DraftKings sports books, the number one place the bet touchdowns. Ready to place your first bet, Try betting on something simple like picking a player to score a touchdown. Ready to do a touchdown dance of your own. New Draft Kings customers bet just five bucks to get two hundred and fifty bucks in bonus bets instantly plus one month of NFL plus Premium
on US. Download the DraftKings sports book at real easy ninety seconds. Use the code colin and the new code Colin for new customers will get you two hundred and fifty bucks in bonus bets betting just five and one month of NFL plus premium on US. Offer in September nineteenth only on DraftKings. The Crown is Yours gambling problem.
Call one eight hundred Gambler in New York call eight seven seven eight hope or text hope and y four six seven three six nine in Connecticut. Help is available for problem gambling call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill, Casino and Resorting Kansas twenty one and over. Agent eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void in New Hampshire, Oregon. In Ontario, bonus bets expire one
hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see DKNG dot co. Slash ft Ball. NFL Plus Premium offer available only to new and former NFL Plus subscribers. Additional NFL Plus Premium terms at NFL dot com slash terms.
All right, it's time for another season of Sharp or Square. After quite a sabbatical, I am now working again on almost a full time basis. Chad Milman, C COO of the Action Network. The Favorites, by the way, I have one thousand dollars pick them contests free to play. We'll get to that later.
All the one hundred thousandd thousand, Man, we're giving away one hundred thousand dollars.
Wow, thousand, one hundreds.
We don't do a thousand On the Volume podcast network. We're big time.
All of our odds provided by DraftKings. I spent a lot of time this summer in uh, you know, in a place out east, Yes, very close to where you live. I played a lot of golf and during that time a lot of time to think about odds. And I almost did not do a first week of this. And my take has been, the world's changed. All these sharps pick at these line one odds. I have all summer to pick at these puppies once they're available. This is
a terrible week to bet. And then I look at the numbers this week and I'm like, they may not be the best, but i got a couple I like and I'm gonna start with one of them that I'm being warned about. Arizona plus six and a half at Buffalo. I thought the Cardinals were a tough out at the end of last year. I think the last couple of drafts they've hit on some playmakers. I like Kyler Murray. I think he's hard to duplicate preparing for He's like
nobody else in the league. He's like to me, he's a better version of Russell Wilson in his prime, and Russell was pretty good. I think Arizona plus six and a half is not only the play. I think they could win Sharper square.
Ish like of all the games they just I'm with you, brother, like, I actually think there's a lot of opportunity in Week one. Arizona is a team. I'm not gonna lie to you. Wise guys love they think that in the NFC West. They love Seattle, they love Mike McDonald as a coach. They are really bullish on Arizona. This number action clicked down, got down to six. It was much higher even during the offseason. It's ticked a little bit back up. I
think there was some over exuberance on the Cardinals. And don't forget this is the kind of game that the Bills historically not just cover, but dominate, right, And so there are so many unknowns in this game. Professional betters. They are going to lean towards underdogs in Week one and that's going to be a theme for everything we're talking about. And I've got a lot of numbers to back it up for folks, But this one is trickier.
I think it's six and a half. Yes, if it goes back down to six, probably, No, don't forget six has become a lot more of a key number with extra point sort of inaccuracy and inconsistency. So I can't give you a definitive. I can say, if I got to play a side, I'm playing Arizona, but I don't think it's blazon by any means.
Okay, that wasn't my best pick. I'm just throwing shit out here.
Goodlet's warm up.
Let's just warm up.
The one I really like is Carolina plus three and a half of the Saints. I think New Orleans is poorly quarterbacked and poorly coached. I think they'll be the first team to jettison their head coach. I think Carolina massive coach upgrade. If you look at the wide receiver unit last year, worse than the league next to New England, they've actually upgraded. So starters are now backups, and it's like, oh, mingo can be a three or a four, not a one or two. I look at Carolina, I'd go money line.
I think they win this game straight out.
Sharper square, dude, you are insu knife sharp right now. That is you have gone from kind of meh mid as the kids like to say, to full on super sharp. Carolina has been a team that at the Action Network we have been hammering all off season. We have been hammering their season win total over that jumped up from four and a half to five and a half. We have been having hammering their odds to win the division. Everything about this team last year, and you and I
talked a lot about this in previous seasons. We do this thing called luck rankings, So it basically takes all of the randomness of football and puts it into a formula and then applies it throughout the season. Last year, the Panthers were one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL that is always bound to regress. In sort of very analytic terms, they won about a game and a half less than they should have based on the
stats and the randomness of games. So now all of a sudden, they've improved their offensive line, right, They've got a couple of new guards, They've improved at receiver, They've improved their coaching. Let's be very clear, Dave Canalis the new head coach, he was the head coach. He was the coordinator in Seattle when Gino Smith went from journeyman to pro bowler. He was the coordinator for Tampa Bay when Baker Mayfield went from journeyman to leading the team
to the playoffs. Now, all of a sudden, he's got Bryce Young, who there's a lot of negativity about. That's why this line is so inflated. This line was at four and a half. It's gone down to four because wise guys are betting it. And you cited about the Saints. There was a survey before the seat, before we got the preseason, which fan base had the least optimism about
their team. It was the New Orleans Saints. Who has the shortest odds to be fired first Dennis Allen, who is hearing footsteps from Spencer Rattler right now Derek Carr. Dennis Allen and Derek Carr in their respective positions as head coach and quarterback, are two of the worst against the spread of any grouping for the past twenty years. They are terrible as favorites, also just generally bad. Dennis Allen is historically bad as a head coach with the
minimum seventy games, which is what he has. So you are spot on one stat for you NFL Division underdogs in Week one since twenty fourteen. So the Panthers as underdogs to the Saints seventy one percent against the spread, not only that they covered the spread by an average of five points per game, which largely says I agree with you. He could take a little bit of a taste and I never mind this like a quarter unit on the underdog to win outright, all.
Right, whether concern could be a monsoon, but commanders plus three and a half at the bucks. I think Tampa has to guess what Washington's doing. They have to go watch Arizona footage, LSU footage. Washington knows exactly what they are. Cliff Kingsbury banged the table for Jaden Daniels. Dan Quinn was a very good coach when he had the right coordinator. I think this coordinator. I talked to a GM that
hired him, Steve Kin. He said, Cliff is great. He said, I don't know if he's an NFL head coach, the discipline is an issue, but as an NFL coordinator or a college coach, he said, I would back him forever. This is a great role for Kingsbury. I think Washington's personnel's find Tampa's guessing. I think they pull back as a team. This year, Tampa. I'm going to take Commanders plus three and a half sharper square.
Yeah, it's sharp. I mean it's not the favorite. Like if I had eight bets I had to make this weekend. This is probably seventh or eighth. Right, I will be playing the Commanders. But this team right now, I just talked about the luck rankings the Buccaneers and you noted there's going to be some regression. The Buccaneers were amongst the luckiest teams in the NFL last year and the
Commanders were one of the ten most unlucky. So just the gap between these two teams is reflected, I think in a higher than it should be point spread because of perception. Right, the Commander's number two, number three overall. Pick the Buccaneers. They made the playoffs, they had a good run. They have lost important aspects of that team, specifically Dave knallis Baker fourteen and twenty six in his
career as a favorite. Everything about this game says take the command So the wise guys, you're with you.
An interesting game. I don't like big favorites in the opening week, and I think Bo Nicks and Sean Payton are going to be excellent together compared to what the market predicts. I think they're a seven win team, not a four win team. Do not like him here rookies starting Week one on the road against a very sharp maybe the next Demko Ryan's defensive coach Seattle. I like Pete Carroll last two years they underwhelmed. They have better talent.
I mean offensively, it's Noah's Ark, two receivers, two tight ends, two running backs, two tackles. I like everything. I think Seattle minus six is to play. This is a rough spot, and I like Bonnicks. This is a rough opening week. I take Seattle minus six.
Yeah, look, that's the exact right spot. Historically, rookie quarterbacks on the road are just terrible. Rookie first round picks on the road average eighteen point per game the past ten years. It is not a good spot. There is a lot of professional better love for Mike McDonald's. They loved the game plans he put together when he was the defensive coordinator in Baltimore. They are expecting a much
better defense in Seattle. I think that's what you're seeing here is just a little bit of a difference in talent on the roster. Historically wise guys, they don't like to bet against Sean Payton, like Sean Payton is their favorite coach, right along with Mike Tomlin. But Mike McDonald's in the spot like they look at him not as a rookie head coach, and a lot of ways the way that people looked at Demiko Rans last year. They got a lot of faith in what he can do. So whise, guys, you're with you.
I'm going to take Jets plus four and a half against the Niners. It's a noisy game the Baggage Bowl. But Trent Williams can't be in great shape. I do worry about Hassan Reddick not in camp because they lost huff to the Eagles, but I don't worry too much about pass rush. I don't like the Niners offensive line, especially when Trent just gets back into camp. That feels like it's just too rich. I don't know if they win,
but god, I don't get the line at all. I would take the Jets plus four and a half sharper.
Square, totally sharp. It's what's really interesting about this colin is since Trent Williams signed, the line has moved a full point from three and a half to four and a half. That's how much bookmakers and then the public betters believe Trent Williams was worth. They have steamed this line and Whilse guys are happy to take to four
and a half. You mentioned the offensive line for to the forty nine ers, that's the weakness of their team, right, And even with Trump Williams, who is probably the best left tackle in the NFL, they are able to mask that weakness because Kyle Shanahan's scheme is so good in the way he can move the ball around that they're able to get away with having an offensive line that is a little bit mediocre. The Jets have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, and I agree
with you about Hassan Raddick. The guy hasn't played for the Jets at all, so they don't really know what they're missing. And obviously Bryce hoff being gone is an impact. But they have a stout defensive line. They will find a way to get to the quarterback against this offensive line. The wise guys love love the Jets in this spot.
Okay, finally a game I missed. I am betting you it's Colts plus the points I know it's the Colt plus the point is it, of course it is.
I n yeah, it's one hundred percent the Colts plus I think you can get them plus three some places plus three and a half. Now this line was two and a half forty eight hours ago. The public is steaming in on the Texans, and the wise guys are buying on the Colts, and look, it's a little tricky Anthony and Richardson has basically played like seventeen games at quarterback since high school, right, and then you got the Texans who look like they are all world. But I
do want to give some context here. The Texans do not win the AFC South if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get injured. The Colts almost made the playoffs with Gardner Minshew playing the majority of the games last season. I think Shane Steiken is a genius of the coach and what he did with Minshew and what he was starting to do
with Anthony Richardson is brilliant. And I think the level of play that the Eagles had last year on offense and what you saw from the Colts is a direct correlation between Shane Steiken being an Indie and not being with Philly anymore. I think there's a huge advantage there also to repeat division underdogs thirty seven to fifteen and one against the spread in week one since twenty fourteen seventy. This is a really good spot for the Colts against a overvalued Texans team.
I want you to just give my audience something here, just just entertain me and make my audience smarter. So I think the Rams the last two years, last year and this year are undervalued. But their old line is a bit of a musical chair situation. Sean McVeagh and Stafford getting three and a half against an average defense feels like stealing money. But I'm really reticent in this spot. I don't like their old line Hutchison had, according to you know, all the Lion news. They're like, he's now
the best defensive rush end in the league. He's just tearing it up. I look at this line, I think McVeigh Stafford plus three and a half. But there's something that tells me, stay away, educate me.
Your instincts are spot on. And this was the artist game. The other bet that we do on the podcast, it's called our Big Balls Bet of the Week, and it's the bet We know it's hard to make, but you one hundred percent have to have the courage to make it. This week it is the Detroit Lions minus three and a half over the Los Angeles Rams. And who likes to bet a favorite in any scenario, especially when I've given you all these trends. But here's the thing about
these trends. Fifty eight percent sixty one percent, What that really means is that, yeah, you're going to have an edge if you bet at long term. What I'm trying to do here is thread the needle and catch a falling knife where the other forty percent of the time, right, it doesn't work right, right? And so look, I love the Rams and we have made so much money on the Rams the past couple of years because I do think Matthew Stafford is probably the most, if it's possible,
the most underrated quarterback. He never gets into the cover of Top three, top four, and he should. If there was a great video this fall this offseason of CJ. Shaud talking about quarterbacks he likes to watch, it was Matthew Stafford. NFL players loving Matthew Stafford. He is a gamer. And what he did last year when Cooper Cup was out and turned Puka Nakua into an all world receiver.
He is brilliant and I really want to bet the Rams, but here's the problem, and I want to fade the Lions because the variant is so high when you're betting on a Dan Campbell team, because of the way he goes forward on fourth down, which can always bite you, as it did in the NFC title game. And when the Niners came back, they are so foundationally good. And when I bet, and when a lot of professionals bet, they bet from inside out. They look at the offensive line,
they look at the defensive line. That's where they start. They don't start on the edges, they don't start with the quarterbacks. They start foundationally. The lines are one of a few teams with top five offensive line top five defensive line pines on one side. Then you mentioned Aiden Hutchinson. I bet Ada Hutchinson fourteen to one to leave the league in sacks. Everything coming out of camp was how
this guy has gotten better and better. And last year he was dominant no matter what this situation was, no matter how often he was being double team he consistently got pressure on quarterbacks, even if it wasn't always a sack. So if you look at those things, I'm like, wait a second. Aaron Donald retired offensive line for the Rams in trouble. Jared Goff undefeated against the spread to start the season in his career, Jared Goff twenty five to
nine against the spread in doors. Jared Goff the most profitable quarterback against the spread the past five years. Dan Campbell the most profitable coach against the spread the past five years. I know, like it's hard to bet on a more than a field goal favorite in a game that ended as a very short win for the line last year in the playoffs, I think the lines have gotten better. I think the Rams have stagnated or a little bit less, a little bit worse because their talent
isn't as good. So it hurts, but I'm on the lines.
So one of the things John that really jumped out to me, and I said this to start my rant, is that unlike the NFL, these are young kids, practice limitations, no preseason. I would be completely okay to watch a sloppy first half. I thought USC six penalties, great situational football in the red zone, very good two minute drives, handled timeouts well, no turnovers again, very few penalties, two freshmen on the offensive line, no real breakdowns. Alignments were great.
I thought USC more than anything. I thought they looked tight, really buttoned up John the whole off. It's his freshman and sophomores. I thought they looked great.
Colin, you get to take a victory lap for the next seven days, loud and clear pound that table. To me, two things really stood out first and foremost the size of the defenders. I would say over the last decade they felt small. They've had a guy or two here on defense, but for the most part, they've had too many guys that look like me, you know, in the
Pete Carroll Heyday and all these SEC teams. The visual they showed of the transformation of the body types during the game, I mean guys going from two thirty to two sixty in an offseason was evident. Because the LSU team has they got a top fifteen tackle, they got another guy who's pretty raw, who's going to go in the top thirty. The wide receiver, the number two looks like an NFL guy. I mean, they had NFL guys
everywhere USC tackled physically, they didn't get shoved around. And I think what really changed is the last two years with Caleb and rightfully so they wrote him like he was Steph Curry or Lebron James. Yeah, it was kind of like an individual, not a team, and it worked two years ago. Last year at Backfire because the defense was totally terrible, didn't they feel like a team? Didn't they just feel like a group of guys that there wasn't one necessity. I mean everyone was making place that
they felt like a total unit. And listen, you were hammering this. I didn't believe Miller. Moss clearly's pretty good. He's definitely tough, and Lincoln had the boys ready and they they could have folded there in the second half, and it was LSU that folded in. This why Brian Kelly kind of snapped after the game.
So the Big Ten went seventeen and one. And this is something I thought about Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC, especially Texas and the way they can recruit that state. It makes it a better conference. But adding Washington, Oregon and USC to the Big Ten is not a slight upgrade. I could argue that after Ohio State, now that Harva is gone, after Ohio State. If I said the next five years, the second, third, fourth, and fifth best teams
in the Big Ten were Oregon, USC, Michigan, Washington. Like, I don't think it's crazy to suggest that adding three of the best four programs in the conference, if Utah always counts, I think in that foursome, but with the right coach USC, Oregon, Washington, those are playoff teams every time Washington's had a good coach, Don James, Rick Neuheisel, Chris Peterson, Kaitlin de boor they vy for a national championship. So it's like, I don't think people understand it's Texas
Oklahoma make the SEC thicker. You added three on any given year top twelve programs to the Big Ten, may it be a better overall conference?
Now, I think over the course of time, I think this year there's gonna be a lot of reaction to to the SEC. Their quarterback play, Colin, I mean, I'm gonna give Oregon a little bit of a pass. I mean that game was really weird. They played boys. They played boys. This week, they better kick their ass and kind of get after it because that was that was bizarre. The quarterback play. I didn't know that much about him. I'm sure you heard his name, the Nico kid from
Los Angeles. That's Tennessee's quarterback. I got loose for you. That guy's pretty special. Jackson dart Ole, Miss. They're pretty good obviously, the two quarterbacks. The quarterback Dylan Gabriels at Oregon because they told him, you're not going to start. Jackson Arnold's gonna start. He's pretty good too. Their high end teams with their quarterbacks are pretty obviously Carson Beck
and Georgia. Over the course of time. I think, you know, USC is only going to get better if they keep looking like this over the next two or three years. Oregon's not going anywhere. But I got a lot of question marks about Wisconsin, about Minnesota, like the four or five, six seven group. Penn State you feel pretty good at Penn State could be a major problem. I was texting
scouts all week and long. I mean, they're front sevens full of NFL guys, and if that quarterback takes a big step, that game got like delayed for twenty five hours. But they could be a serious factor, I mean a serious factor this year. So I think the high end of the Big ten in the sec. It's pretty clear that though Miami, I would still kind of red flag the quarterback and be up and down. But they're pretty talented.
So I think that Tom Brady situation's fascinating. I had people asking me in the airport about this. I went golfing and I had a couple of people ask me about the story that he's going to be. You know, he's trying to be a raider's owner, and if you're a raider's owner, there are limitations on what you can do in the NFL.
And had you heard about that? Had you heard about that before like in the Halls.
House, No, and so, And it's one of those things that that's above my pay grade. That's management. But so for people that don't know, he can't criticize officials, he can't be in certain meetings, production meetings. I don't think the production meetings is a big deal. I think have you been watching this stuff? That Brady is allowing people to see the binders he has from every single season,
everybody he ever faced. His preparation is even compared to people who spend a lot of time preparing, is literally next level. And he just got off the field. I don't worry about any of that. The only part of it that concerns me, and it only may happen once every two weeks, eight times a year that you may have to call the officials and go, that's a blown call. Now replay helps reverse a lot of miscalls. So again,
it's not the seventies eighties. But when I read all the stuff, I thought, do you view it as credibility dinged if he can't rip officials? And I'm not saying rip, but be question officiating.
Listen. I like my announcers. I think once everyone started getting on Romo, Troyikman kind of got a swag back and he'll light into somebody and I like that. Now some people may be like more rosier. But here's the one thing, there's twenty thirty million people watching this game. When stuff screwed up. Now, at football, you have a pretty good idea, and people don't like to hear rose colored glasses when stuff's pretty obvious. I thought, it's not
only officials. This isn't like certain things like with teams. To me, the restrictions that I read feel like god part of my big question mark with Tom because turn him on your show. He's he's awesome. I mean his ability to speak complicated stuff, but I was like, let his true personality come out. That he's known as a great teammate. Part of that is being one of the guys obviously ribbing some people. I think that's pretty difficult.
It will not be difficult for him to get the coaches and the players on the phone, right, that's call him back.
That doesn't feel like a deal, That doesn't matter at all.
That's Peyton talks about that sometimes. On Monday night. I talked to Sean McVeigh on his drive home. They can go to him and Peyton get anybody on the phone in the NFL in five minutes. I do think him not being able to do that. If that's really serious, can you argue and listen. I'm as pro capitalism as anybody, but this feels like it's going to be pretty tough if you one day. Actually, he's just never allowed to do that. It is pretty difficult to do your job
if there are legit restrictions. Because it's easy this year, but what about five years from now when you have some coaches you know nothing about. Those production meetings do hold some value, right, Y's one thing I'm not saying to like divest from the Raiders, because that's pretty good investment invested in the NFL, but it feels pretty difficult. Fox has given them almost four hundred million dollars.
Yeah, and again, I rent all the restrictions and listen. I'm I'm a corporate opinionist, so essentially, I have strong opinions for companies ESPN and Fox that have rights with everybody. And my take has always been I can say pretty much everything and anything, but I don't make it personal. I'm not going to go after Roger Goodell personally or Adam Silver, even now that we don't have the NBA.
I try to be fair with people, even when I'm critical of people, like for a year, even with Baker Mayfield. I've said he is a top twenty quarterback. I think he's a great guy. He and Emily are wonderful people. I root for the guy. I thought he was immature when he came into the league. So I try to qualify stuff I don't want to. I don't want to be a sledgehammer. I don't want to be an anvil because I'm in these relationships too. I see these commissioners,
I see these coaches. I don't want to be a jerk. I want to be somewhat respected as a generalist or an opinionist. But the one that did jump out to me was the officiating because, and again Tom's such a prep monster. I don't worry about the other stuff, but that one I think. I think what it would be. It wouldn't affect him, but it would mean a lot of bad press for him and Fox, and I think corporations don't like that the volume. Thanks so much for listening.
If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and review