Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - The Packers Secret To Success, The Bears Need A House Cleaning, Betting NFL Week 17

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That's for the people dot com slash Colin or pound law pound five to nine from your cell Morgan and Morgan has a proven track record of fighting for you to get a full and fair compensation if there's an unexpected accident in your life. This is a paid advertisement. I should get overtime pay for staying up tonight and talking about this awful Seattle six to three went over the Chicago Bears. You know, first of all, just a broad comment. Caleb Williams has thrown for over three hundred

yards four times this season. That's more than Patrick Mahomes. That's remarkable. And tonight he had an interception for the first time and forever. Nobody could have succeeded with this team in this season. I mean, they're using a basically their third different person is sort of assembling the game plan this year. It's just a circus. It is an absolute circus. He's still the youngest quarterback in the NFC. He's got boundless talent. He made a couple of really

nice throws tonight. I mean Gino smith Is, I mean just a ham and egger. Caleb's got all sorts of talent. But there's just nothing you can do with this franchise. There's nothing I like about it. Like even bad franchises. Let's let's let's take a franchise, you know, like the Jets. They had Robert Sola for years, an excellent defensive coach. Joe Douglas whipped on a quarterback in a COVID year, But that roster is a bunch of Joe Douglas draft picks,

it's very good. He also went and got Davonte Adams before he got fired, and Deavante and Aaron are connecting. Take a franchise like the Carolina Panthers. They went out and got an excellent young offensive coach who looks like he has turned Bryce Young from a bust to a decent, mobile, athletic, accurate starter. There's nothing about the Bears outside of Caleb Williams.

I mean, it's I don't trust the ownership. You know, Kevin Warren, the president, has a reputation is more Paula Titians and football expert Ryan Poles, you know, I mean, listen, keep him fine, move off him fine. I don't think he's done a terrible job last year. Four picks. He took a punter. That's not what I would have done. They could have, you know, made more moves, eber flues.

his camp were worried this franchise. I mean, look at Chicago's ports right now, White Sox, Blackhawks, Bears. I don't have any ability to decipher why not great ownership is a place to start, but I feel I feel sad for the kid because and you can see the talent. I mean you you would have to be trying to make an argument to say you can't see his talent. I mean last night or tonight was the first interception he's had in forever. I think it was like since Halloween.

And that's why this idea that you can just go out and get some you know, Ben Johnson and he's going to change the world. You know, that guy's never been a head coach at the high school level. There are so many hurdles to overcome in this organization. I don't think there's a good job right now in the NFL, I really don't. I don't think any of these jobs

are good. And if Oz Mike Frable, I'd sit it out for a year because I think next year you could possibly have the Cowboys, Bengals and Joe Burrow would be available. You know, there's a couple of opportunities out there next year. Keep your eye on. If Sean McDermott does not win in Buffalo, I think Sean McDermott, a

good coach, could be in trouble. So though, those are really good opportunities, and there's only been three great coaching opportunities in the last eight years, Green Bay Matt Lafleur, I think Mike McCarthy and Dallas and getting Justin Herbert with a Chargers. Those are really high end coaching opportunities. I wouldn't want the Chicago job, despite Caleb's talent. I

wouldn't want it. That's how bad it is. My other takeaway in this game, it's funny the number one position in the NFL over the last twenty years that has been the biggest bust rate in the first round is wide receiver, And obviously, you know wide receivers can make dynamic plays. But the Seahawks have Smith and Jigba first rounder, DK Metcalf, second rounder, a good tight end, and Noah Fant excellent running back Charboney who's their second back. But

equality Gino Smith can't play. You're eight, nine, nine and eight with Gino Smith. That's just what it is, you know, Roma Dunza, what can you do? They've been better off going out and getting an available offensive tackle. Instead, they went in later rounds and got some prospect I think from Yale, and you know, can he play? We'll see. You know, you look at the Chargers who are going to make the playoffs. They could have had a wide receiver. They looked at Brian Thomas. They went and got Joe

Alt from Notre Dame. They're going to make the playoffs. They have two of the best young tackles offensive tackles in the NFL. Yeah. I was just watching it tonight and I'm looking at all these first round wide receiver talents and DJ Moore and Roma Dunzae and DK Metcalf second rounder in Smith and Jigbin. What's it matter if you have a bad organization or like in Seattle, you have a mediocre quarterback and I like John Snyder as

general manager for the Seahawks. He's mostly not a good job, but I think he made a major mistake last year in the year before not afting a quarterback. And I said it at the time. I'm not you know, I'm not looking through the rear view mirror here. I said it. Last year. Seattle's roster is really solid d line, solid skilled positions, good corners, linebackers that are mobile and move. They're just mediocre quarterback. So it was a tough watch tonight.

And you know, I just Chicago fans al Michael's touched on this. I mean, they are being handed just tire fires and all their sports and come out tonight and pack that stadium. Is you know, it's a tip of the cap to one of the great American cities and sports cities because fans in that city are getting ripped off. The quality is awful. It's always been a very political city and it feels like the same with the Bears. It just feels like a kind of a political hot mess.

So again, I think my first choice would be vable. I don't know if he'd accept it. I have real reservations about all these hot shot offensive coordinators a year ago, Bobby Slowick Houston OC was a genius. Houston can't score this year. C J. Stroud has regressed badly. You know the Cliff Kingsbury, who I like a lot, but he struggled as a head coach college and Pro. You gotta be careful. I mean, there was a time when everybody

was bragging about Shane Waldron and rehabbing Geno Smith. Shane Waldron, you know, I don't even know where he's at now. He got booted out of the Bears organization. So I think, what a franchise is broken? You got to you got to get a culture changer. Dan Campbell, Detroit Harbaugh, Mike Framele. That's what it feels like to me. It's a mess. I've said before that I'm I'm willing to change my mind if I get no information. And I was thinking about watching the Packers tonight about I'll give you an

example of something I radically changed my mind on. So I would say, forty years ago, I liked the Olympics far more than the World Cup. And the reason was is at forty and forty five years ago and I'm, you know, fifteen years old, twenty years old, college student, high school student, and as somebody that absolutely loved sports. You didn't get three straight weeks of sports. You didn't

have this proliferation of regional networks and local networks. You know, when I was a kid growing up, fifteen years old, you got an NBC Baseball Game of the week. You know, I lived in around Seattle. I couldn't get Mariner games except on radio. You couldn't watch Mariner games. And you know, I was a kid from divorce. We didn't have the money to go to Mariner games. It was a two and a half hour drive. I lived on the beach in Westport, Washington, so you know, like once every five years,

i'd go to a Mariner game. So the Olympics, you know, for a sports obsessed fifteen and twenty year old, was three straight weeks of sports. It didn't matter that I didn't care about the sports at that point, I had never skied. It didn't matter. I'd watch the Winter Olympics. I wasn't in track, I didn't care. I watched the Summer Olympics. It didn't matter. I still don't care about Olympic sports, most of them. But it was three straight

weeks of sports. And then you have over the course of the last forty forty five years, this proliferation of cable and again all these networks. I can turn on my television any day of the week and get twenty games. I mean, you can fish around on a Tuesday and get you know, during the baseball season, I can watch every baseball team. So the Olympics now today don't feel as special to me because I didn't care about the

sports and the Olympics then or now. But the fact that you got three straight weeks of sports was really unique. Now it's not, And so now you could have the Olympics. I'll watch the opening ceremonies, maybe a couple events. I just don't care. But I love the World Cup. Some of that is I worked at two networks with World Cup and soccer analysts and experts, so I'm around more soccer people, and frankly, you know, four years, you know it's something new, it's something fresh. I mean, how many

NBA games, how many football games? Can I watch? The quality of soccer is great. I know more about soccer. It doesn't matter if it was the other place or Fox, I'll watch more soccer. A lot of my adult friends have given up baseball and they're more soccer friends fans on a Saturday morning, they'll watch English Premier League, you know, And I have a lot of friends like that. I've also gone to Europe more in my life, so I'm just more I'm just more into the World Cup than soccer.

I've totally changed my opinion on that. And this is where I get back to the Packers. I always thought not having an owner was a disadvantage to the Packers. Is that having a Stan cronkey who can literally as he's on the tarmac true story of flying out of the country can tell Sean McVay, all right, go for it, Go get Matt Stafford, Like you know, it's gonna be expensive. I'm gonna pay for Jared Goff in Detroit and Stafford in LA. Let's go for it. Big advantage. But I'm

watching the Packers tonight and think about this. Ten of thirty two teams in the NFL, thirty one percent of the NFL has five wins or fewer for a couple weeks to go. So the Saints have five and they'll lose tonight Carolina. The Jets in Chicago have four, four and eleven. Vegas Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville and New England are three and twelve, and the Giants are two and thirteen. So that's ten of thirty two teams. That was only

five last year. It's doubled. That is a really really large bottom and unwatchable part of the NFL feels very much like the NBA. It really does. I mean thirty percent of the NBA or more as unwatchable. And I think there are two reasons for that number.

rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels, bon Nix, you're in. Michael Pennix, my guess now is going to win the remaining games for Atlanta. They'll be in. If you just have a competent rookie quarterback, a Pennex down the stretch, Bononix, Jayden Daniels, You're in. So quarterbacks more important than ever. And number two is billionaire owners. Now the poorest owners a billionaire and it wasn't like that ten years ago. And billionaire

owners are less patient. Firing as staff and having to pay forty five million dollars is more of a rounding air. And so you have more chaos among coaching staffs and more chaos in the coaching community. So between it's more quarterback centric and more impulsive owners, you just have more hot messes in the NFL. And I'm watching tonight. I mean, I'm one of these guys that can sit down and

watch almost any NFL team. Giants unwatchable, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Vegas, hard to watch, Carolina with Bryce Young not can to watch it, a little, Jets, Aaron Rodgers. I'll watch Chicago, I'll watch Saints tonight, unwatchable. So it's just interesting. It's something I've really changed my mind on is that having an owner I always thought was a huge advantage, but I think Green Bay going forward having no owner because I now believe because of the impulsive nature of billionaires,

richer owners, less patient, more impulsive. There's only about four to five great owners. I think the Hunt family in Kansas City's excellent. Stan Kronkey with the Rams is really excellent. You know, Robert Kraft. People will argue he's frugal but pretty solid owner. But there's a lot of average to below average owners right now. There's more good quarterbacks and good coaches in the NFL than great owners. And I think going forward, you're allowed to be much more patient.

I mean you're allowed to sit Aaron Rodgers on the bench for three years and grow. You couldn't do that if you had an owner. No way you could have a first round quarterback and not rush him onto the field. The owner would be harping every year. There's no way you could have Jordan Love sit for three years as Aaron was getting prickly and high maintenance and passive, aggressive, and owner would have stepped in and said, ship him,

let's play the kid. Just why do you think Green Bay, more than any NFL franchise, can keep using this formula drafting you know, high end quarterbacks first round and not playing him for three years. Could not do that even with a good owner. You couldn't do it, there'd be too much pressure. I mean, I think you'd be surprised how often owners listen to sports talk and listen to fans. Gms are too busy to listen, so are coaches. Players

don't really care. Billionaire owners who have people under them want to get the temperature of fans. In the media, and I mean, there's no question that New York media is influenced. Woody Johnson influenced by the New York media firing Robert Sala and nobody everybody was banging on him. And if Woody Johnson's not listening, his kids are listening. We've heard stories about Woody Johnson's kids having influence. So I think it's a real advantage for green Bay going forward.

And I believe strongly in this, and I never used to think it is that as the wealth and the net worth has gone up ten times for owners, you don't have to worry about Brian guden Kunst, Mark Murphy. Who are they answering to the packers board And it's you know, not a lot of power there. So you know, I'm Washington green Bay, and I don't think it's a coincidence that they have been able with the last two star quarterbacks to just let them sit for three years.

No way in the world could you do that with an owner, even a good owner. So tip of the cap to the Packers. Well, it's the most wonderful time of the year for getting in on all the basketball, football hockey action at DraftKings Sports Book. It's the season of giving, so we're being gifted college football and basketball, pro football, basketball, pro hockey to almost twenty four to seven. It's an absolutely great time of the year. So a lot of games every day, so many opportunities to place

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I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to the tournament.

college football one day. I don't worry about it. Also, two, you could have predicted before Tennessee played Ohio State, after Notre Dame had beat up on Indiana and after SMU was getting it handed to them by Penn State. I was in a tech chain with a bunch of IU buddies right and I was saying, you can guarantee right now next year over correction for SEC and strength of schedule, you get seven SEC teams. You'll get two Big ten teams chosen from Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State. You'll get

Clemson out of the ACC. You'll get who Cares out of the Big twelve, and you'll get Boise State, right because you won't get the at large team. You won't get the third Big Ten team because now the committee is too scared because of all these blowouts.

took the game over. This one jumped out to me as an overreaction. Broncos plus three and a half sharper square.

to throw the ball downfield. He wants to get it to Higgins, he wants to get it to Jamar Chase. I would want to do that too, So it's not entirely his fault. He's playing into what he thinks will get them the best opportunity to win. But the Broncos have as good a pass rush as Cleveland, and they don't have Dorian Thompson Robinson, who, by the way, almost got the Browns to cover that game. That's how bad

the Bengals defense is. So let me give you some stats about bow Knicks that should make you feel more comfortable about this, because I betted at three and a half bow nicks against bad defenses, so defense is below the fifty percent rashold the cross a variety of metrics in the NFL, of which the Bengals are won seven or zero straight up and against the spread, twenty nine

points per game, thirteen touchdowns, two interceptions. The Broncos are ranked as a better team than the Bengals across the board in all DVA metrics, like it's over inflation on the Broncos losing in prime time and the Bengals Joe Burrow looking like a superhero.

fly and think of a new game. Of course, we're betting the Saints here like they're getting They just got blown out in prime time humiliated Historically, Historically, you bet that team blindfolded. It doesn't matter that they're playing JV players, it doesn't matter who their quarterback is, they're at home, they're as as a dog. They just got blown out. Every sort of trend says you play that team. On the other side, the Raiders. Look, they beat up on

the Jags, but let's not be fooled. They had a ten game losing streak and the Jags kept turning the ball over. So I wouldn't be too anxious to bet on the Raiders as road favorites in this. But give me the Saints. Now, I gotta scramble and think of what my other game I'm going to try to get you to bed is well.

all right. This is a big game for them. So this is not like the Commander and the Commanders aren't going to get home field advantage. The Falcons can win home field advantage with these wins down the stretch. It just seems to me, again it wasn't that they just beat the Giants. It's not just that, but Pennix's accuracy. Greg Cosell talked about it this week. This kid has an arm I don't care if it's windy. I like the Falcons plus four sharper square totally sharp.

right Michael Penix is one of those guys. Not dissimilar from Jayden Daniels, not dissimilar from bow Nicks, not that dissimilar from Caleb Williams.

That's a big game. I don't care if it's in college like that has huge steaks, So he's been in spots.

is unhappy with his targets. I think Buffalo flexes here. I think Buffalo also watch the Ravens and the Chiefs flex and play brilliantly. His favorites, there's a separation. You know, I don't like big favorites. I'm gonna take Buffalo minus eight and a half off all horrible winning performance Sharper square.

go four and fourth down, situational play clock management. If the Jets kick a field goal, I'm fourth and four from the Rams twelve yard line. Last week, they're up twelve to six, and that's the ballgame. Like the Rams were not doing anything. Instead, he twice went fourth and fourth downs and that's basically when the Rams won the game. So it's hard to bet on the Jets because jeff Elbrick is just so bad.

biggest ones. What's interesting about this game is a month ago they played it in Carolina, Tampa was a six and a half point favorite on the road, one in overtime because Tuba Hubbard fumbled the ball in field goal range for the Bucks. Right, So now you take this game to Tampa. Tampa is only a point and a half better. When the line came out, went from six and a half to eight. Right, Normally home field is three points. What that's telling you is two things. One,

bookmakers have generally regraded the Panthers. They started off one and seven against the spread. Bryce Young was terrible. Professional betters had been betting, betting betting the Panthers. I'm sure listeners remember early in the year. I was all over the Panthers. Bryce Young two point zero is everything you just said. He's rolling out of the pocket using his legs, incredibly accurate, standing in the pocket, taking really hard hits.

He's been great. He's been a really good quarterback, much better than CJ. Stroud, Like you said, so, bookmakers have adjusted to that. To me, eight was still a little too high. Wise, guys agree, you're sharp. Take the Panthers a college football line.

has played in the Rose Bowl before. Whether it's not a factor. I said before the season, Oregon's gonna beat Ohio State at Otson. Ohio State will beat them in the rematch. It's under a field goal, I'd take the Buckeye sharper square.

out of the spotlight for a little bit. There's a lot of sentiment about the Buckeyes defense, like you just said, So that's the way the money has been going in this game. Look, it's fascinating. It's rare you're going to get the second ranked, third ranked whatever it is team to be the favorite over the number one ranked team. But that's the spot we're in because of everything you just said.

better than the line. That Jets game was built for them to lose early game, cold weather, good defense, and they played a brilliant fourth quarter. I feel like it's six to six and a half. I have to bet the Rams. I know it's divisional Sharper square. If I like the Rams.

Now they're going home, chance to clinch the division against a team that is down. James Connor injured. We saw him practicing but still limping. Offensive linemen injured. Not a very good defense. A coach who doesn't know how to keep his team up yet. The way they say Sean McVay would, or even Mike McCarthy did with the Cowboys against the Bucks. The number during that show went from four to four and a half to five to five and a half. Thirty minutes, it moved a point and

a half. By Monday morning it was six. And so when you're talking about why isn't it sharp to bet the Rams now, because the wise guy's been betting it since it was at four, four and a half, five, five and a half, and a little bit at six until it got to six and a half. It got to seven, and wise guys started betting the Cardinals at seven.

course of a season, it's very predictable. So I've had a terrible year betting because I tend to take underdogs and value. You know, I'm always seeking value over favorites, but a lot of favorites. Of one is I'm trying to think. I missed badly on the Jacksonville Jaguars badly, but I'm proudest on my commander's pick. If I said to you, give me your width and the one you'll plant the flag and as you're really proud of this year.

it that way. By the way, I'll also tell you that the bet that I always love the most, which I'm still in play for. I always do sort of a round robin on the teams that are at twelve to one or shorter to win the Super Bowl, and I will bet them in Super Bowl matchups because you can usually get those at like between twenty and thirty five to one. So you bet the Chiefs and the Lions, you bet the Chiefs and the Eagles, you bet the

Ravens and the Lions. You bet the Ravens and the Eagles, and you bet the Bills and et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. I'm still alive with that. Even with the Bengals, I'm alive with that if they make the playoffs. So I always like that bet and feel good now that the Chiefs and the Ravens at least are two of the teams that I most heavily favored at the beginning of the year, along with the Eagles and the Lions, and I feel good that those matchups are still in play.

talked about, I think Harbaugh's a brilliant coach. I think that teams are making more aggressive decisions so they're scoring more points. I think that the fact that the most teams are starting field position at the thirty yard line is getting them closer to scoring in the other side of the field and making them more comfortable on fourth and four from the forty going forward instead of kicking a field goal.

be contrarian because the public doesn't know anything. Teams getting over sixty percent of the spread, covering fifty six percent this year against the spread, home underdogs forty three percent against the spread this year. That'll be the third least profitable season since nineteen ninety. So for people like you, people like me, I want to fade the public. I want to bet home underdogs. That's usually where the value is. It's been a rough go of it.