Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Stafford Best QB In NFC, Jets Lack Juice, Caleb’s Shaky Debut, Sharp or Square

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let's start with the Rams Lions. These standalone NFL games are insane. I mean you had over seven hundred yards of offense tonight, over five hundred passing yards between the Lions and the Rams, Matt Stafford and Jared Goff about five and a half yards of play if you avered the two teams. Let's see forty six first downs and no fumbles. Each quarterback threw a pick. Time of possession was even. First of all, Sean McVay and Matt Stafford

and Cooper Cup. No Puka Nakua, he got hurt. Both your offensive tackles are out makeshift offensive line to go into Detroit Sunday night football against the super Bowl level team in Detroit, and really I thought they had the game one and regulation. What a performance by Stafford, Cooper Cup and Sean McVay, who's a rock star. And in the end though I felt like Detroit when it went

to overtime, I'm like, Okay, now it's Detroit's game. The Rams look tired sometimes at Chris Collinsworth made a great point, you're not really built in week one to go to overtime in a game that's a track meet. It's just only so much. I don't know who. I don't have the betting lines next week, but I mean the Rams and the Lions. They if they were a little off next week, you'd understand it. But my first take is

the Rams. I mean, I wrote these numbers down. At one point they had a twenty eight to twelve first down advantage on the road, four hundred yards, three hundred passing yard, dominating time of possession, and a seventy eight to forty five total play advantage at one point in this game. But credit a very deep, now experienced Lions team, like they're not new kids on the block. Green Bay

is still young, the Rams are actually pretty young. San Francisco is older, but the Detroit's got a veteran club here and now a veteran coaching staff with Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell. So I think it was just a team like the Rams gave it everything they had, but they they looked really shot in overtime, and to the Lions credit, they just ran the ball right at them. They didn't f around at all. They went right at

the Rams interior D line and it worked. I think one of the things I'm always taken by is how good Matt Stafford is. And we all know he's good. But I've said this before, if Matt Stafford and the Rams. And remember what you saw from the Rams Night's impressive. Poka Nakool will be back, They'll have both their offensive tackles, their guard will go back to playing center. They'll be a better team. Plus, they're incredibly young on the defensive side.

I mean they got two rookies starting on that defensive front. Give those guys twelve to fifteen games. This Ram team by the end of the year, you don't want any part of This is a really good team. The difference is the Lions are supposed to be good now and they got out played for big chunks of this football game. One of the things I worry about with the Lions is they don't have a ton of wide receiver depth, so they got to keep amor On Saint Brown healthy.

They don't have a lot of depth there, and the Rams did pick them apart, even though I think they're a better team in the back end. Rams, and maybe it's just the Rams Cooper Cup can do that. Rams kind of picked them apart for long stretches in that football game. Again, the Rams had a seventy eight to forty five play advantage at one point, and we're dominating time of possession. So it's one of those things. Detroit I didn't think played particularly well in the second half

and they won the game. I thought the Rams were brilliant. A heartbreaking loss. When you really outplayed a team on the road, a great team on Sunday night football, and you lose, that's a long flight back to LA But I think what you're looking at is two excellent teams, two teams that could meet again in the NFC Championship. Wouldn't be surprised in the least. Would not be surprised in the least. You know the other thing, the Rams,

and I wouldn't call this a problem. It's fascinating. So there's a lot of discussion because he's gotten nicked up last couple of years. What do you do with Stafford? Do you draft another quarterback? But you're watching Stafford tonight. He went thirty four for forty nine for three hundred and seventeen yards and a touchdown, the pass rush in his face. In the second half, he went eighteen to twenty three for two hundred yards, and again he's under dress.

Jared Goff had a much cleaner pocket, And I'm sitting there watching Matt Stafford, and I'm thinking, if you're the Rams for the next couple of years, in the draft, why draft the quarterback? Just stack the roster. Who are you going to get in the draft that's as good as this guy. I know he's older, but when I watched him tonight on the road pass rush, I mean, it's basically Cooper Cup. He didn't have Tyler Higbee his top tight end. He's banged up, he didn't have Pooka Nakua,

he didn't have his tackles. He's putting on a clinic. You're not going to face many pass rushes, certainly tonight. You're not going to face many environments in this league harder than that. And this guy's eighteen for twenty three in the second half. So you know, I was sitting as I watched the game, and I'm thinking, what I mean, move. He's never been a big mover. He moves well enough in the pocket, his arm's great. I mean, he's clearly

going a thousand miles an hour cognitively. Upstairs, he's got an incredible relationship with Cooper Cup and Puka Nakua. Now they got Jordan Winningham, this other receiver they bring in Tyler Johnson, who I thought was kind of a cast off. I think he was in Tampa at one point. He had a huge play tonight. And I'm just saying, I'm looking at this team and I'm thinking the defense is young. Stafford's the old guy.

if there's good as Baltimore. I don't know, but they're certainly in a group of four or five teams that could get there, five or six teams maybe. So I just you're watching Stafford. I'm watching Stafford. That guy doesn't look close to retirement. He didn't look close. Only one team in the AFC East did not win, the New York Jets. But I think it's fairly disturbing, and I understand Kyle Shanahan in openers is rough. Go back one year the Niners went to Pittsburgh and moved the ball

at will on the Steelers defense. It was a complete blowout. You know, you face the Andy Reids and you're you know, I mean, look at what Sean mcvayh and Stafford did in a losing effort, missing multiple starters Like these offensive coaches in openers are really good. Mike McCarthy and Dak looked flawless. So Shanahan's not an easy guy to face. But I mean, the time of possession when Aaron was on the field was thirty eight minutes to nineteen. That's embarrassing.

That's what Will Levice would produce. The first downs when Aaron was on the field, Jets had a twenty five to eleven deficit. Let's just talk about the Jets offense. This is a defensive head coach. Aaron's past his prime off surgery, and Nat Hackett is suboptimal. One receiver you can trust and Bresall I thought the old line was fine. Aaron only sacked one time. They were fine that this wasn't Aaron Rodgers running for his life. You know, let's just be honest about this. Aaron right now is not

in his prime. He's not as big, strong an athletic as a Josh Allen or a Justin Herbert. He's not as he doesn't move like a Kyler, Murray Lamar or Patrick Mahomes. And I watched them tonight and I think we have overvalued how good Aaron Rodgers is now. It's going to get much easier for the Jets defense. They faced Will Levis and Tennessee next, followed by Kobe Brissett in New England's offense, followed by Bo Nix and the Denver offense, followed by Sam Darnold, who had a really

good opening week. But in the next four weeks, the Jets defense is not going to face this team. But I think the offense is concerning. It's just Aaron throws a really pretty ball. Esthetically, it's fun to watch. It's like that first big drive was great, but the only other touchdown they produced was off a free ball when the Niners' safeties were playing catch up because they paused. Aaron's a great free ball quarterback, best ever in the NFL.

There's a variety of reasons for it. I won't go into detail, but I always feel like He loves the free ball because even if he throws a pick, it doesn't count. So he gets really hyper aggressive on the free ball and more aggressive than he is normally. Loves to throw the ball down the field, which sometimes he's reluctant to do in my opinion, in other parts of the game. So I just I look at that offense and I think, you know, the offensive line was fine,

but it wasn't very creative. Aaron's not going to extend plays like he used to. You know, they've got one receiver, I like, Mike Williams took almost no snaps in the first half. The tight ends are irrelevant, and Breese Hall's good. But this is not a high powered offense. You've got a defensive head coach, a quarterback passed his prime, and Nt Hackett. I mean, I think we're building this up. Miami's offense is going to be better all year because

of Josh Allen. Buffalo's offense will be better. So it's the third best offense in their division. Let's be totally. It's not a Houston, it's not Kansas City. I don't think it's Indianapolis. So we've got to slow down on this thing. I don't think it's Baltimore. So and that's just it's not the Rams or the Niners. On the other side, I don't think it's the Lions. I don't think it's the Eagles. So you start looking at this offense. It's not Dallas. After week one, you know it's not

a top ten offense. So you're going to have to rely very much on this defense. And let's pivot to the defense. They got pushed around Jesus Jordan Mason. They had one hundred and eighty yards rushing. I mean, they

had multiple drives where they were doing whatever they wanted to. Now, again it's Shanahan, it's the opener, but the San Francisco forty nine Ers offensive line is the weakness of the team, and with Trent Williams holding out for most of camp, that's why I thought the game would be so low scoring. I thought this was going to be played between the thirties. I was shocked at how easily the Niners picked up

chunk plays on the ground and in the air. I mean, it was pretty much they did whatever they wanted to. It could be Debo, it could be Jennings, they could run it with Deebo or Jordan Mason. It was Kittle, it was Ayuk, I mean he dropped a touchdown. They did whatever they wanted to for most of this game. And again now it's Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, Bo Nicks. It's not the same. I mean the Jets defense. In fact, you know, teams that play San Francisco usually get thumped

the following week because the Niners are so physical. I think the Jets coming back were kind of physically humiliated in this game. I mean, be honest, you didn't think it would.

by the Jets. I take copious notes. You know, one point twenty three to seven, Aaron gets picked. That's twenty six to seven the free play. But you know Aaron's a master at that. I guess the best news for the Jets the quarterback play and the schedule lightens up considerably. But that was a disheartening effort. If I had to point to one thing, I didn't think their offense would be great tonight, flying cross country BOSA against an old

Tyron Smith, Like I thought it would be choppy. The Jets defense, I mean, and it's not just Hassan Reddick's absence. That was a weak effort. That was a non competitive effort. Jesus thirty eight to nineteen minutes time of possession when Aaron Rodgers were on the field. That's an ass kicking. That's like, you're not competitive, You're not extending drives at all. I mean, and the other thing tonight, they did it without Christian McCaffrey, who is the engine to this offense.

One hundred and eighty plus rushing yards, but no Christian McCaffrey wide open receivers twenty five to eleven first down edge when Aaron was on the field. Wow, I'm I'm I'm surprised by the ease of it. The Niners had eight straight scoring drives. I you can Trent Williams held out and no Christian McCaffrey. Eight straight scoring drives. That's like what the Saints did yesterday to Carolina. I mean, it's Week one. It's not like you have a litany

of injuries. Eight straight scoring drives like Robert Salah that that's not good enough. There's no excuses. This is this is your culture, this is your team. I mean, would you have guessed that, I mean McCatty once you heard McCaffrey wasn't gonna play. If I said to you, they'll score in eight straight scoring drives, you would have said, oh, come on, you're an Aaron Rodgers hater. That's bad. TD Tuddy taking it to the house in for six whatever

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Kirk Cousins got one and and DeShawn Watson. I not only want a great player, I want a great leader. I want great health, I want an ascending player. He's virtually none of those. I mean, it's just typical Cleveland. What's ironic after watching Baker today? Baker's a much better quarterback today, John than Deshaun Watson. I mean, Baker was a rock star today. I'm sitting there and I'm like, we know it's not Stefanski. We know he's a really bright guy and a good play caller. I mean, I

don't even know what Deshaun Watson is. I mean changing uniforms. He's a bottom ten quarterback.

some elite athlete, but moving around. Deshaun Watson Dak Prescott signed the same contract, essentially two hundred and thirty million dollars guaranteed. How could you pay a player who has character question marks and who has a short resume. I mean, I'm getting text constantly. I'm sure you are. It has to go down immediately as one of the worst deals in the history of pro sports. You look at Dak has his flaws in January, very consistent regular season player,

super smart guy, yeah, high character leader. Everyone that knows him like him. Deshaun Watson. I was out on him last year. Today, what an embarrassment? Where's the playmaking? Colin? He doesn't make any play well.

than Dak Prescott. And I've always thought Dak's sort of a b athlete and a b arm But I was watching Daxon and I'm like, oh, Dak's a much much better player than Deshaun Watson. And the thing about Dak, Dak is a guy that even when he has his faults, you do feel like he is the soul of the organization. He's the soul for sure. Deshaun Watson, if you went through that locker room and a half the guy asked half the guys and you go, you could move off the contract. So I look at Cleveland and I think

desperate franchises, desperate owners do dumb things. They're sunk. You can't go anywhere in the AFC with Deshaun Watson. I want to talk about the Bears game. First of all, the fact that they won a game and passed for sixty four yards, so it was interesting. Belichick said something last week. I took the Titans to win that game, and basically I was on the right side. I felt for almost the entire game. But Belichick said something this week and I took it to heart. Belichick said, I

wasn't impressed. He was like ten for twenty. And I went back and I text somebody who is I know who's in the NFL who's been critical of him. And the big question with Caleb is high school. In college, he can really get in the weeds with his accuracy, he can really get into the high grass. And if you recall, Mahomes could do that a little bit in his first three years and then Andy would pull him

back in. Mahomes would get really off mechanically. Stafford's done that in his career where it's so easy for Mahomes and Stafford they start side arming two out of three throws, the mechanics get sloppy, and I thought with Caleb, he's got a defensive coach, So Mahomes has Andy. Stafford at one point had an offensive coordinator he really connected with. Now he has McVeigh. But I think with Caleb is when he gets sloppy mechanically, who brings him back on

the fairway? Because I thought today he struggled at times to see things. You know, I thought his decision making late in the game and not making mistakes and taking what was given for him was fine. But I mean all these guys struggled today. Bo Nix was as good as any bud and he threw two picks. What did you make of Caleb overall today?

of the preseason. I mean, the first ten minutes of like ten am to like ten thirty, You're watching the Steeler game, the Houston Indie game. Guys are flying around. I'm like, this doesn't even resemble what we just witnessed. Right, So, the defensive game plans. All these defensive coordinators, even the average ones, are making one and a half two million dollars.

They're paid a lot of money to do this. The physicality of the game rams up the question on Caleb he is going to be able to make spectacular throws though he wasn't doing that today. He was I think he was really rattled and his confidence was all shot. But can he just make basic throws from in the pocket, whether it's a fastball or whether it's a layered throw. And it kind of unraveled on him and unraveled on

him fast. Now. The tight Jeffrey Simmons is probably one of the better players that the casual fan doesn't know that much about because he plays for the Titans. You put him on the Cowboys or the Eagles or something. He'd be a star. And they were hitting his ass hard and he was he was thrown off and will Levis bailed their team out. Because if will Levis does n't self implode, the Titans not only easily should have covered,

they should win the game. I mean, he looked like Daniel Jones there, but Caleb was He was atrocious today. I mean he really was, which is fair because this is what Bill and Bill's an old school guy, Sean Payton's, all these guys that come from the eighties, the nineties, the Bill Parcells. They hate hype, you know you and

I like some hype, Yeah, I enjoy it. Those guys do not like it because it doesn't mean anything once you kick off week one, and all that hype was meaningless today if on third and seven he's skipping a ball and he was, and it unraveled fast. The arm strength, all the talent doesn't mean shit. And like you said, it gets back to Jayden Daniels. Beside his running didn't look great. Bo Nicks, who has an offensive play caller now, he was on the road, granted, looked overwhelmed a lot

of the time. Yeah, it's hard. This is really really. This is why I've said pump the breaks, especially on Caleb and the Bears. I don't know, like Nick Wright picked him to win the Super Bowl. A lot of people are hot, you know, he threw that out. I don't know if he actually picked. But my point is he could make serious strides as the year goes on and they could win seven games. This is really Look at Sam Darnolly, He's been the league for like seven years.

Has taken him forever to figure it out. Yeah, no, it's not easy.

If you could take that today and say he's significantly better, we win at games we finished third, take it, because what success looks like to Dak is not what success looks like. You know, years ago, you and I grew up the hardest thing to do was hit a baseball. Now, that's still really hard. Yeah, it's still really hard. But quarterback now has entered that space because it's not a run centric league. It's a sixty forty sixty two to thirty eight passing league. And I mean it's even Gino Smith,

a veteran today his best play was a run. Like this stuff is hard, and I think we just have to understand. I thought all the quarterbacks looked overwhelmed. I thought bow Nicks had a little rhythm at one point in the game where he felt like I felt like bow seeing the game. It wasn't doing much, but he was seeing the game, he was seeing the field, and he was facing a new defensive head coach. So all twenty four points today were scored by defense and special teams.

Will Levis to me, is done. He's baked. I don't think his college game looks like his pro game. Doesn't see the field. Terrible judgment. I think Caleb's going to be fine, But to your point, he looked overwhelmed. And I think the other thing is if you opened up on the road, it's different, dude. He opened up in Chicago. The weather was perfect, that a buddy at the game, like there was a lot of fricking heat on Caleb today, Like a.

can be hard to gain. I would say, you know in your early twenties and when you are everyone's looking at you. When you start losing confidence, it can spiral and the only thing you ever have to go back on is your experience. But as a young player, you don't have any experience. Like Geno today, you're watching early on, You're like gott Seattle looks weird, he's been through it. Dak today. All these guys have so much experience that they don't freak out over one drive. They don't freak

out over a bad quarter. And you just watched Caleb. You just felt it snowballing, and what does he have to go back on?

twenty eight to ten? Yeah, and just be the number one story of the day tomorrow morning that the Bears and Caleb specifically are not nearly as good as we think, because that I really think that you can defensive turnovers, like if they're playing a top, if they're playing just Baker Mayfield or Ge they have blown out, they get killed.

what he is. He's not gonna lose you a lot of games. He's not gonna win you a lot of games. But I'm watching that game today and Sean Payton coached

his ass off for a half. He got them. I mean a lot of this was Seattle do it getting safeties, and it was quirky, and then all of a sudden, by the second half, you're like, Okay, now we're off script, and now Bo Nicks is a rookie quarterback, and he just you know, that's the difference between a veteran dak in the second half and bow Knicks in the second half. Both's like, Okay, now they adjusted, So I got the everything on the script. I figured out. Now it's all

off script, and I'm watching that Seattle team. John, But I think you called him one of the surprise teams. I'll just say it right now. Maybe they're not Baltimore. I think they are really talented. They really they fly around the field defensively.

Gino has his limitations. But you're right. I mean, Kenneth Walker, there's a chance at the end of the year he's a top five running back. How about the catch Lockett made to seal the game. He's their third wide receiver.

can play at a more physical brand. My question marks you never know what the coordinator going to a head coach. He's young. I think he's thirty seven years old. And their offensive coordinator, who we all loved in college, who was to bors right him, had never coached in the NFL. They showed his resume to day. He was a Sioux Falls not that long ago. It's a pretty quick jump. Now he clearly knows what he's doing, and so their coaching staff might just be better. I saw watch John

Schnyder's press conference at the end of training camp. You can tell he thinks they got something. Not he knows their team is talented, but like he thinks the coaching staff's pretty good. So like can they beat McVeigh and Kyle, can they split? Can they go to and two? Because if they can, then maybe they're not nine and eight, they're ten and seven and they're like the six or seven seed. I would say that's possible. I'm not going

to overreact to playing Denver who. It's just you could tell they're a little talent devision still with with a rookie quarterback. But yeah, I mean it's hard not to. He's an easy guy to root for. G know's an easy guy to root for. I just wonder in Sunday night Monday Night games and Tom Brady calling it if you're both four and one or however the schedule and you're playing the Rams or you're playing the Niners, are you I'm not picking Gino Smith Homer Away?

my plays and you dissect them. So let's just start with a team that is this close to beating Kansas City Arrowhead, and I think the Chiefs are a better version of last year's Super Bowl champ Baltimore. I think the Raiders are bad, and I don't think they're terribly well coached. I mean the fact that the only way they'll win this physicality, and the Chargers were more physical. They beat them at the only game. I think Baltimore's really good. I don't think Lamar will run sixteen times

on average. I think Kansas City brings that out of him. It's a huge number. I hate doing that. I think Baltimore's pissed. I'm gonna swallow the eight and a half Sharper square. So it's square.

and now eight and a half. So it's getting closer to a number that I think at some point the wise guys will come back in on Baltimore. But at this big of a number, they're just betting the number, And this early in the season, everything tells you that you are playing against the over reaction. Right, everyone saw the same thing you did. The Ravens come within a toenail of tying the Chiefs at Arrowhead in a massive game against the Chiefs team that looks like you can

break every rule of betting that exists in the universe. Right, the Raiders people were high on. They got crushed and they didn't look very good doing it. And Antonio Peers made terrible, terrible decisions. I read in the Athletic that that decision he made on fourth down in his own territory, it was the first time a coach had been down in his own territory in the fourth quarter and punted in eight years. It's one of the most cowardly calls that has been made in the past eight years. And

you could see him on camera. There's the videos of him saying should I be going for this right now. So there's a sentiment that people are overreacting to the bad coaching, the bad play, and the great play by the Ravens. So yes, the wise guys are going to be on the Raiders.

I think Minnesota is actually I said this before the season. If they finish fourth, they will be the greatest fourth place team in the history of the league. They've got a lot of good players. They have a brilliant coach, really really sharp guy. He reminds me of Kevin Stefanski before he started winning Coach of the Year. He's just he's operating at a different level. This was at six at one point. I think I take the Vikings five and a half sharper square.

weeks when he's a favorite on the road. That said, I think Kevin O'Connell is starting to get a lot more credit as a coach than people wanted to give him. You know, two years ago, three years ago, it was Brian Dayball and Kevin O'Connell. They were neck and neck for Rookie of the Year coaching. They both had teams that were excellent in one score games they played each other in the playoffs. The Giants win in Minnesota, Brian

dave Ball wins Coach of the Year. He's getting more credit as the best coach, right, and Kevin O'Connell had a similar year and then last year did wonders when Kirk Cousins went down, and Brian Daball's team is cratering when their top quarterback goes down. Then we see what

happens last week. A bad quarterback for the Giants, a historically bad quarterback in Sam Darnold, and he has a Cinderella like first half ten for ten on his first ten passes with a touchdown, a ninety nine yard touchdown drive that ends with a fourth down pass like touchdown pass to Jehin Jefferson. Kevin O'Connell is a very good coach, and I think that's another reason why the why these guys are in their vikings.

Levis can play. I don't think he's fluid enough. I think his judgment's bad. This is what I saw on the SEC. That's the first part. The second part is San Francisco makes everybody, So does Andy Reid and McVeigh. They make a lot of people look bad. In the week one, I think the Jets are actually a pretty good football team. When this number got up to four. Now I sound like such a square on this, but four is an interesting number. Here's how I view four.

I like favorites at four because the market doesn't want to create force. They'd rather you be three to three and a half. When the market has to go to four, their signaling. Look, it is just a better team. This started for the Jets for a better team. They're pissed. I don't think Will Levis can play home Field's never met anything in Nashville. I know it's square. I take the Jets minus three and a half.

scoring drives. Their defensive line was destroyed by Shanahan's blocking scheme and their run scheme, and they could not get to Purty, who's just incredibly nifty in the pocket. Callahan showed last week that he can do something really interesting with this Titans offensive line from a running perspective. You know, Bill Callahan, who is Brian Callahan's father, legendary offensive line coach, left the Browns this past season to go work with

his son revamp the Titans offensive line. The Titans defense did not give up a touchdown to the Bears, right like the Bears were scoring on special teams and they were scoring on defense because Will Levis, as you said, is a terrible quarterback. The wise guys are betting the number here. The four is key. Teams that open at four or higher at home in weeks one and two

sixty percent against the spread the last twenty years. Teams that opened at four or higher at home after losing their last game against the spread, which the text with the Titans did sixty four percent since twenty twenty one more stat that is very interesting. The Jets were dominated on Monday night, and now of a defense that was on the field for a ton of plays going back short week to be against another really physical team. That's

what the Titans want to be. Teams with fewer than twenty five minutes of possession in Week one six and twenty five against the spread in Week two. That's nineteen percent the jedal. So look, I'm with you, like, this isn't going to be one of my five best plays

because I don't trust Will Levis. It's and it's it's becoming clear in this league there is such a delta between competent quarterbacking and really good quarterbacking and not it's becoming too much of a hindrance for teams where despite all these numbers that go back, you're gonna have to play the quarterback in some situations. And this, to me is a scary spot. The wise guys aren't scared. They bet the Titans. I'm a little scared.

he's going to be the best rookie quarterback. He may not be the best year, two three, four, he's going to have the best year. The rest of them have defensive coaches. I think Denver wins here. They've always been good at home. I think it's a coaching mismatch. I think Peyton's a brilliant coach. I like the Steelers, his dogs, not his favorites. Denver plus the point Sharper Square.

And defensively true, but I think they were excited about bo Nicks. And if you watch the game back and we heard this on the favorites from scouts and from professionals who all watch a lot of film, bo Nicks recognizes he missed some easy throws and that's because he was still getting to know the pace of the game. They liked the way he was a gamer. They liked the way the Broncos stayed in that game. They basically made the game a push. They backdoor pushed in that game.

Seattle was a six point favorite, So there's a lot of sentiment that this is the right side. The line moved from three to two and a half, and I will say you excited about Tomlin. Tomlin is the greatest underdog coach possibly in the history of the game the past twenty years.

we've talked about this on the show. You know, we do this thing called the luck Rankings at Action that sort of takes the noise out of all the games and tells you what the expected score would have been based on the stats and if you didn't have the flukiness and things like that, which there's always regression when there's flukiness. Broncos are one of the three games that has the highest sort of delta between lucky and unlucky in the Steelers in the and the Broncos. So we like the Broncos.

they wanted to do. Blake Korham didn't even play Tyler Higby. Their tight end is out. They were It was just Cooper Cup, Matt Stafford and McVeigh and backups. I think of up and down the field. Baker's got legitimate receivers. I don't understand the number. You know to me before, Why explain how Detroit is seven and a half? What's the side here?

things going on. Number One, on the Buck side, they are getting overvalued because Baker was so good in that opening game, right, But you were great against a rebuilding team, and the expectations for the Bucks for a lot of people were kind of low, and from a public point of view, they've now exceeded them. And Baker looked unbeatable.

But he played against the team with a defensive line that is basically starting from scratch against a defense that doesn't have great defensive backs, so he could kind of have his way. The Rams are like their game plan, which they had five months to build coming off a playoff game. They were so tuned in and they were still losing seventeen to three, and they needed a couple

penalties to get themselves back in a position. And yes, they were moving the ball up and down the field because their offensive line was terrible, but it was really passing the ball and what they did the Rams was brilliant. Matthew Stafford one step drop first rethrow. Aden Hutchinson was in his grill every single play, even when Matthew Stafford was throwing it with after about a second and a half right. Baker is not that kind of player. Baker is not as sort of efficient with when he drops

back and getting to his first receiver. And I think the Lions, and we saw this in the overtime, they are so physically dominant. They're playing at home. Dan Campbell is the best coach against the spread the past five years. Jared Goff twenty six and nine against the spread indoors like this is a. This is a really good team. I think this is the second best roster in the NFC. You could argue the Niners are the best. The line

showed something physically dominant team. It is not about the edges, It is not about Dan Campbell and sort of going for it. Their offensive defensive line are fierce. So I like the Lions here. I think they are gonna blow this team away.

set before last week's games. The Packers were four and a half point favorites with Malik Willis, they opened US three and a half point underdogs. That's an eight point swing. Patrick Mahomes is worth eight points against the point spread. And the way that guy has figured this out is they take how much better is he than his backup? It's not just about what would the line be if he's not playing, it's what would the line be if

his backup is playing? Right, So, Jordan Love, as good as he is, is not an eight point swing kind of generator when it comes to quarterback play. So they think there was a little bit of inflation in the way that they reopen the line from three and a half, which is why I got that down. But also there are some on the field elements here. Number one, Malik Willis, if he knows anybody, it's the Colts.

the Texans. They're banged up. I mentioned the Jets and their twenty five points or twenty five minutes of possession. The other team that this applies to from the past week the Indianapolis Colts. So that's another factor to look at. Matt Lafleur. I just said Dan Campbell best coach past five years against spread. Matt Lafleur second best spread against the spread. So a lot of indicators here that are leading people to bet the packers. To hold your nose,

bet the number kind of thing. If you can get the three, I wouldn't say take it at two and a half.

he's got this town wired. And so we're hanging out his house and starts with barbecue dinner, and then it's a few drinks, and then it's a few more drinks, and then it's like after midnight and we're still sitting in the same place, and it's beautiful outside and we're sitting on bourbons. And I get back to my hotel and you know how in hotels, like there's eight different lights and eight different lights switching. Yeah, you're not used

to like the layout, right, maddening. And so when I take out my contacts, I'm legally blind, Like I can't see anything. I need to feel the room. And I realized I took out my contacts and I hadn't turned off all the lights. So I had to get like

nose to the wall to find the light switches. Found the light switch for the hallway, found the light switch for the light behind the TV, found the light switch for the bathroom, like felt around and got to the desk lights, the the side table lights by the bed. Could not find the light switch for the overhead light, Like I'm in the wall, cannot find out. I go back to all the other light switches. I'm putting them up and down, cannot find it. I had to do

the most embarrassing thing. I called the front desk. I'm like, I know, Oxford's a crazy town. I promise you, I'm not so far gone. I'm gonna forget this. In the morning, I cannot find the light switch for my overhead light, and he goes, Okay, what do you need to do. I'm like, do you have any idea where the light switches are in my room? He goes, what room are you in? I go three twenty five? He goes, all right, let me think about it. He goes now, and I

don't have anything down here that maps it. I was about to say to him again, it's after midnight. There's only one guy in the desk. He can't leave, but I'm about to see him. Any chance you can come up to my room and check out with the lights aar. And then as I was about to say it, I'm like, that's the most sketchy thing that you could possibly say. After midnight, see where God work? In the front desk. I put the I said, you know what, I'll figure

it out. I put the phone down and I say to myself, I'm like, I'm just I'm just gonna have to sleep with the light on, like I don't know what else to do. And then I gave myself.