The volume.
Let's talk about something really really important. If you're ever injured, check out Morgan and Morgan's America's largest injury law firm, and they are there for you. Over one hundred offices nationwide. Think about that, more than a thousand lawyers with over twenty billion. That's a b twenty billion dollars recovered for over five hundred thousand clients. Things happen in life unexpectedly. Submitting an injury claim with Morgan and Morgan is really
really easy. Like winning in the NFL is hard. We know that quarterbacking in the NFL is hard. Submitting a claim is easy. You're ever injured, check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free unless they win. For more information, go to for Thepeople dot com, slash Colin or dial
pound law from your cell phone. Pretty easy. That's for the people dot com slash Colin or pound law pound five to nine from your cell Morgan and Morgan has a proven track record of fighting for you to get a full and fair compensation if there's an unexpected accident in your life. This is a paid advertisement, all right, instant reaction. We have all sorts of stuff I'm gonna give you about twelve to fifteen minutes on the Rams Niners,
and some Belichick thoughts something was uncovered tonight. That's fascinating. Chad Millman, Sharper Square. We're gonna also talk Belichick and UFOs.
You know why not.
So the Rams beat the forty nine ers twelve to six. So the first thing is I did I stayed away from this game. I wouldn't touch it. I could have done a DraftKings bet, I said, I there's too many injuries, weather, it's shaky, and the Rams just played a flawless football game against Buffalo. Then you got to get on a plane Wednesday, flight to arrival division game like added no what? I just I knew the Rams were gonna be off.
You cannot play a game against a team like Buffalo, a high stakes game and be flawless, even with men. This isn't college. But to go on the road against your rival Green Laws back Bosa played. So they won and you have to be healthy. But they won and you have to be happy. But here's the thing. So all these wide receivers, do you know Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase, and Deebo Samuel's record this year seventeen and twenty three. Top five rushing teams are all right now in the playoffs,
you gotta be careful with DIVA wide receivers. Deebo wants the ball. Oh Debo can't catch the ball tonight on an underneath route where he had a chance to peel off a huge play, potentially a touchdown, and they settled for a field goal. You could clearly see the Niners trying to appease Debo and get in the ball and force it. I like him better as a running back then a receiver anyway. I think his yards after the catch and his running ability is much greater than his
separation ability. I think he's become sort of a banged up poor man's and Kwon Bolden that you know doesn't separate. But he's physically tough and a nice player. But this is so you have young brock Purdy, you know, doesn't want to lose Debo. Ayyuk's already out for the year. Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey hurt. So Deebo picks the worst time to, you know, be high maintenance because you know
pretty's young. He doesn't have Ayyuk. You know, Kittle is tremendous, but a lot of teams now are taking him out and spending a lot of coverage on him. So they forced a debo and this is what you get. Biggest game of the year for the Niners, one hundred and ninety seven total yards. You know it, brock pretty in thirteen starts. Everybody talks about him getting paid big money. It's a big mistake. I don't buy it.
I never have.
Doesn't have Christian McCaffrey, doesn't have Trent Williams in thirteen starts this year, fifteen touchdowns, nine picks, and you want to pay him fifty five million dollars the minute you take away his best players.
He is a guy.
He didn't get passed by everybody in this draft. You know, during Tom Brady's run, there were more sleepers. You find occasional sleepers, but scouting departments now are much more sophisticated. You know, in Brady's era, you didn't have all the YouTube stuff. You didn't have the ability to see some of these college games. They're all on television. Now, it's just really hard to hide people. Staffs are bigger, Scouting departments are bigger. There's just more sophistication. You know, Rock
Purty dropped to the seventh round. He's small, he doesn't have a big arm. He's athletic but not special. Hands are a bit small, you know, And you're watching a guy that when you lose people, what do you get? And conversely, tonight, Matt Stafford very very rough first half. I mean it was like the Niners defense had the Rams playbook.
They knew where he was. He was just trying to beg in to throw an interception.
And yet he showed exactly why he's a real franchise player on those big drives late third, early fourth quarter, using his feet two or three times ducking out of stuff, really big third down throw.
I wrote this.
Big third down throw to Colby Parkinson late whereas pretty previously in the fourth quarter had a really really ugly end zone pick. You saw the real separation here Rams, short week of a highly emotional game on the road division rival. Neither team has their fastball. Stafford in the second half after a shaky first really made all the big throws. And because the coaches are both great, the offensive lines are good, not great, And that's the separation
between the two. Yeah, I'm looking at this two big drives Stafford in the second half. That's the ball game. And you know, people, people think I'm anti Purty no, but somebody's got to pop the balloon on this nonsense. I think Pretty is a less athletic Dak. Now, Dak after a second surgery here is going to be even less athletic. He lost mobility after his first surgery. He'll be less athletic. You're seeing what it's doing to Aaron Rodgers.
You're saying what it's doing to Kirk Cousins. He's younger, but he won't be the same. And this is what holds the Cowboys back. They're paying a B quarterback A plus money. If you pay Pretty A minus money, he's a he's a B quarterback. You just still want to get into that space. Pittsburg will probably pay Russell Wilson. They're going to pay him B quarterback money. Darnold could be franchise tag for forty million, forty one million, but that's B quarterback money. And I've said this, I wrote
the Niners obituary three or four weeks ago. I don't think this is a tweak. I don't think it's a tweak.
I think I.
Both Ayuk and Deebo are now pretty verbal. Don't neither seems terribly happy. Kittle's horrific, but he's a tight end.
He is aging.
Trent Williams doesn't have much left on the tires, so I think they have to rebuild both offensive lines. And conversely, the Rams are really well coached. I said, outside of the Lions, I'm not sure there's a team in the league that has a better offensive head coach, quarterback, star running back, and two elite receivers. And they're doing it without Tyler higgsby their top tight end, who is coming back soon.
So is the Rams.
Offensive line has gotten healthier over the last month. Stafford's been exceptional. You noticed it tonight. He had better protection. Now they're getting their tight end back to go along with Colby Parkinson and David Allen, So all of a sudden, now the Rams are healthy down the stretch, and I think they can play with anybody.
Now.
They're defense, they're a little like the Packers. They feel like they're a tad young. The Packers are young on offense. The Rams feel a little young on defense, and they still need a number one corner in the draft. But this is a real RAMS team, and I think they solidified their playoffs tonight. It's a quarterback coach league, and nothing against Shanahan, but he's got pretty and Stafford and McVeigh are another level. So congratulations. So I want to
add this because this came down tonight. So Chad Melbourne and I talks in Belichick, but I didn't have this information. So I made the prediction today on FS one. I said, my take is Bill Belichick, easy schedule Carolina. It's going to win eight or nine games and maybe get to the playoff, but get to a big Bowl. But I don't necessarily think he'll coach in that bowl. I think Belichick is going to get irritated. His coaching and his structure and the personnel with Mike Lombardi will be fine.
I don't think those guys are long term fits at the college level. They've got a very Charlie weissfield but even more blunt, and Belichick's got so much power, and because Lombardi's friend, Lombardi's got power, I think they'll it could be pretty rough. They're pretty terse, blunt, you know, outspoken guys, both very very talented. I know Mike Lombardi is very talented guy, and I wish him both well.
But it comes out tonight. Belichick steal has a buyout of only one million dollars and he can leave after June first this year. Now, he's not going to duh and nobody hires a coach after June first, obviously, But I said today, I think he's going to coach one year and go back and get an offer in the NFL. And I think he's going to hand it over to his son. So there's some things that will come out in the contract. And I do think Bill wanted the
Bear's job. They're not interested. I think he's really interested in the Jacksonville job.
They're not interested. Mike Rabel.
By the way, and I talked to Mike Brabel for about fifteen minutes this morning, and I'm not gonna give a lot of details of that, but you know, one of the things I told Mike, I said, you're now the number one candidate. I'm just not sure there are any jobs worthy of your coaching ability. I think next year is a much more interesting year. If you look at Zach Taylor Cincinnati, I think he'll retain his job.
I'm not sure if he'll retain it. If the Bengals have another season like this, keep your eye on that. I think Mike McCarthy will keep his job potentially, and so will Brian Dable. But both the Giants with a Shador Sanders at quarterback and the Cowboys could have openings. I think the openings this year too many impulsive odd ownership executive areas Jets, Bears, Jacksonville. But Belichick say it again. I said it on the air today. I think he'll stay one year in Bolt his contract. He could bolt
after June first this year. He's not going to. But my prediction he'll leave after one year. And Bill parcell'shwist did broadcasting Bolted, told people I'm going to stay at Bolted. Bill's a coach. Sean Payton stayed for a year, loved it. I mean, Sean really loved working as an analyst. He left Bill Belichick's coach, and I do think he'll I mean, I saw and talked at length today about the schedule at North Carolina.
The a SEC is so bad. I mean it's he.
Gets Clemson at home. There's not another game that he can't win. Syracuse on the road could be little dicey, but so it's just interesting. In order for that to be in the contract, Bill Belichick demanded that it was in the contract because, as I told you, Jimmy Sexton, the top agent in college football, he's not sending his top clients there. And Belichick's not represented by Jimmy Sexton.
So this is not.
A very highly coveted job because the push and pull between kind of academics and football. The chancellor, I think it's always been a little bit of a sleeping giant, but it's had some good years with mac Brown the first time and mac Brown the second time. But to get that in the contract, you wanted it in the contract and demanded it be in the contract. Okay, I've never seen a contract stipulation like that that he could leave basically after June first, and again he's not leading
this year. That's never what I said, but I do my prediction he will leave after one year. He would deny that, obviously, But college football is I mean, you're seeing on a weekly basis guys that love college football, young coaches talk about how frustrating the portal, the lack of regulations, and the nil is. I still contend the nil should have about an eighteen million dollars salary cap.
NFL's got one. Otherwise you're going to get a separation of Texas ban forty million and spending three I just it will be. It will be, you know, even the disparity between the top and the bottom will be even greater than it is now.
And it's pretty great.
Now Belichick's deal that is a very interesting clause, one that he wanted or he wouldn't have fought for it, and one that North Carolina agreed with. North Carolina is telling you, hey, just bringing you on campus, getting the publicity, elevating our nil from four million to eighteen to twenty million, adding a professional structure to our program. Hey, we appreciate it, We need that. The world's changing and we're not ready for it. And if you're willing in one year, give
us at least one full year. And I think even though that's in the contract, I think it's understood. Bill wouldn't bold June second, nobody's hiring coaches. Then well, it's the most wonderful time of the year for getting in on all the basketball, football, hockey action At DraftKings Sports Book. It's the season of giving, so we're being gifted college football and basketball, pro football, basketball, pro hockey to almost
twenty four to seven. It's an absolutely great time of the year, so a lot of games every day, so many opportunities to place your first bet now, if you're gonna bet for the first time, make it simple. Pick a team to win, any team. Go to DraftKings sports Book. They have an app. Download it ninety seconds. Here's the gift for all new customers. Bet five bucks, just five bucks. If your bet wins, you get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets. Download the Draftking Sportsbook app. The code is Colin Coli n New customers one hundred and fifty bucks in bonus bets. If you've got five bucks and it wins, Happy Holidays from DraftKings. Crown is Yours.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler In New York call eight seven seven eight hope and Y, or text hope and Y four six seven three six nine. In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling called eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino in Resorting Kansas twenty one and over. Agent eligibility varies by jurisdiction void in Ontario. Bet must win to receive reward.
Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issue.
Ins four.
Additional terms and responsible gaming resources see DKNG, dot co slash Bball.
John Middlecoff, former NFL scout with the Philadelphia Eagles, has a three and Out podcast. Josh Allen first player in the history of the sport as a quarterback to have three rushing and three passing touchdowns in the same game. If you did not see this game, it may be the single greatest I don't think I've ever seen a moment of a player caring a franchise. The secondary for the Bills was banged up and torched. They came in
with no juice. He single handedly kept them in the game with running play and not just casual running plays, not six eight yards like twenty five thirty five forty yard running plays. I mean, Mahomes has all the trophies. Mahomes is not his talent that as Josh Allen. Josh Allen's insane and I thought this was a you know, Pukas had injury issues, so is Cooper Cup and they're
going to draft a receiver. I'm pretty strongly a believer of that, but it shows you why the Rams are now seven and six and with Arizona fumbling, Francisco feels big win today for them, but it feels like they're just a little disjointed. If the Rams sneak into the playoffs, John watch out, because I would have no interest plan this team.
Well, to me, Thursday night they played the Niners, so they could kind of end the Niner season, right, they could end the Niner season. They would be eight and six and they would be in position Seattle. If Mike McDonald was an offensive coach, we'd be talking about him like a mcvea or Shanahan. But he coaches defense. He's done a fantastic job. But this is must win for really the Niners, you know, aren't really alive, and they lost another player today. At the end of the game.
They're running back got hurts and now they're on their seventh running back. But the Rams. This goes back to last year when Pooka plays like this he had twelve for one p sixty. He becomes, you know, essentially, he becomes like a Marvin Harrison or a Chris Carter or a you know, justin he becomes an unstoppable force. They are tough to beat. Because I was texting with some buddies this week, Jared Verse and Fisk are so good.
Yeah, those two draft picks.
Are immediately people around the league they're violent because He's like, let's texta with the buddy who's like, you know, their talent on defense isn't that great, but their defensive line is violent. Actually starts with those two guys. Yeah, and a lot of people thought like, is Fisk a little bit of an overdraft? You know Verse? Will his power translate? It's translated. Yeah, those two guys are ass kickers. To me, it's all about Puka, who they had to wrap at
the end of the game. Now he came back in something to monitor now short week. But the other thing and you hit on it. We have a lot of these arguments, I think on social media and when we talk about Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, I understand Lamar has a couple MVPs. Now, last year's MVP was not a great MVP season, Like if you look at his numbers, he had a much better season than nineteen. Statistically, up until a couple of weeks ago, he was blowing that
season away. This year, Josh Allen is one of the best players in any I've ever watched. Yes, Like, how are we arguing when we watched this guy plug?
Yeah?
Does he throw a couple?
Yes?
So did for By the way, thing about he is to me Otani, he is different than the other great players like Otani. Mookie Betts is amazing, but he looks small compared to Otani because he is. I mean, it has an o'tanni feel like while you may be watching, you may be watching the greatest talent ever. I mean, John Elway ran, He didn't do this. John Elway was strong. He wasn't this. John Alway had a good arm. I'm not sure it was this. Like and again we all
acknowledge Mahomes, but Mahomes has read a great ownership. I mean, everything is Patrick's terrific. But what I watched today, I mean, just here's the thing I worry about with Buffalo. Kansas City never delivers that Kansas City when they show up with no juice. Now, this did happen early in mahomes career. They'd fall behind twenty four to ten and you'd be like, oh my god. But in the last three years, Kansas
City does not do this. You can beat him, you can beat them at Arrowhead, but they rarely come with no juice. And that's a team with two trophies. Buffalo doesn't have one, and it worries me at times. Like the first half was twenty four to fourteen. The Rams did whatever they wanted to. Kyron Williams ran pooker cup. I mean, they just did whatever they wanted to do. I mean, it's like eight man football for Buffalo. It's like,
is anybody guarding the receivers? That does trouble me. They were on about a four or five week run where I had not seen this, But don't they give you this about four times a year?
Yeah, and they've been doing it now for a couple of years. But then they bounced back. You know, next week they're playing Detroit, who still I would imagine, even with the mini by still gonna have a bunch of injuries. Like that's a pretty big moment for Buffalo because Colin they finished with Patriots, Jets Patriots, so they should be able to sleep walk to go three and zero down the stretch. But what off to see. You know, Kansas City still got a couple of tough games. Every game
they play is close. I don't think this totally kills Buffalo from the number one seed, because if you look at Pittsburgh's last four games, it's like Philly.
Baltimore, Oh brutal, They tough.
They got a tough schedule. So to me, Buffalo, their schedule eases up. And I think we're gonna learn a lot about them with Detroit because we already know about Detroit right their competitive character, their makeup. You could never write them off for they could be thrown me and you out there on defense. But today was the first half was embarrassing for Buffalo. That can't happen if you want to win a super Bowl. And then they're not even when healthy, are talented enough to just cruise by.
Right now, defense is not list loaded with names on the back end.
Once you pay your star quarterback. Kansas City has offensive tackle issues. They're still trying to figure out. Frankly, their receiving corps. They're not as good at corner as they were last year. Like it's there once you pay the quarterback, you're I mean, right now, Baltimore's back end, Joe Burrows defense is atrocious. If you look at Stafford, let's be honest about it. The offensive line, it feels like they're
playing catchup with the Rams the last several years. They don't pay a single person right now on the defensive side. They can't afford to, So I just I think it really that's why coaching and quarterback play john is so essential in January, December and early February. There are no perfect teams. They're just you can't in the transfer portal, by the way, has done this to college football in the NIL. The minute you think you're loaded, you lose all.
Like in Ohio State can't carry three great tackles because somebody poaches the best tackle they have. That's not starting. So like in college football, the unintended benefit of the transfer portal in ANIL is there's no more Alabama's.
That's over.
Like there's just too many teams here. And when I watch the NFL, you're like, quarterback play in coaching obviously matters, but there are coaching becomes essential because I mean, you watch Buffalo in the back end today, Baltimore's back end, Jesus, it's those are bad secondaries. Vikings forty two, Atlanta twenty one, good first half, and then Minnesota took over. I push back when you suggested that Minnesota may have to re sign Sam Darnold. First of all, he's going to have
a very tasty free agent market. Vegas, Giants, Tennessee minimum are gonna at least look at it. If they don't like Cam Wore, Shador Sanders will go number one to either Vegas or the Giants. I think he will not. Everybody's gonna like Cam Moore. But if you look in the last month, Darnald has eleven tds no picks. This receiving corps plus TJ. Hawkinson, Jefferson and Addison had five touchdowns today. We got to be honest about this. In the history of the league, you could put him in
a very rich Gannon class. Like nobody believes in him too. He's a top three quarterback, top four quarterback in the league playing right now. I'm watching Donald make plays today, and our thing was, I think we both felt the same big, strong, athletic, coachable, tough kid, but his accuracy could be hit and miss. Wellan O'Connell's taking the reckless out and elevated. You know, he's made it very intentional. Sam goes back to pass, you get a very intentional play.
And if he has to add lib, which he did today, he's fantastic. He not Lamar or Josh, but he is way high end in this league.
He is.
He is in the Justin Herbert class.
Like I'm gonna move and I'm gonna crank it, and I never thought this. He's had one stinker all year. He had three, a couple of picks against the Jags. They won that game. Remember that game down in Jacksonville. They were terrible in the red zone, So his stinker they won. They could still be a number one seed. I think I'm sitting here thinking today, do you let him walk out of the building.
I think at minimum, right now he's in the category if you don't want to do the long term you gotta franchise him right now. The problem with franchising it's forty one million dollars for a quarterback, and unlike these contracts, you don't get to push any of that off on you know, you know years in the future. He has twenty eight touchdowns right now, Colin, they have four games left. He has twenty eight touchdowns and they were eleven and two.
The one player you're we're alluding to when he scrambled around, he kind of did three sixty, went across, threw it to Jefferson across his body. I got that looked like Josh Allen. Yeah, and that was a play today. If you are the GM and the head coach, you go. This is exactly why we said Kirk Cousins were not in the market for you anymore because you don't one you've never had that in the bag. But the version that we're seeing out of Cousins, Cousins just got one
hundred million dollars guaranteed. He hasn't thrown a touchdown in four weeks, and he's throwing picks just by the you know, multiple picks every game. I mean, he might be cooked. Like you saw today was a pivot point. One guy's career feels like it's kind of headed toward the drain, like is he even gonna be starting next week? And the other guy is exploding. And he used rich Gannon as your example. Rich Gannon did not have this level arm.
Rich Gannon did not. That was the knock on rich While a lot of people back in the day were like, you know, it was hard for Gruden to sell Al Davis on Rich because he liked those big arm quarterbacks and that wasn't Rich, but Rich was really accurate. Sam Darnold sixty eight percent this season, Colin, Now listen, he's gonna turn the ball over a little bit. He's got ten bucks, probably end up with thirteen and fourteen. How often do you watch him and you see him explode
the ball down the field. Well, now that they're left tackles injured, the best two players on the vikings are the two White House. So those guys are thriving under Sam. How could you I've said before Today is a great example. He threw five touchdowns against a team with a lot of good defensive secondary pieces. Yeah, in your wildest dreams, you would desire JJ to become this player one day,
to be that good. What we witnessed today, and the chances based on the history of we all watching the NFL and knowing how hard this league is, it's less than fifty percent. He's ever that good. Well, Sam currently is this good and now has this I would say, you know, resume of life in the league of building on callouses going through adversity, being very confident in himself, but having humility to know how hard it is. Like he's seen it all. He has seen the worst of
the worst. And then with Kyle and now Kevin O'Connell, I understand that they drafted a quarterback, but sometimes things change. Yeah, I mean the forty nine ers drafted Trey Lance and they pivoted in the blink of an eye to Purt. Yeah, and sometimes you just that's isn't that part you started the volume like pivot fast? Right? I mean, you know Sam Darnold, So what he's gonna cost you a lot of money if he's a top five or six quarterback in the NFC. I mean this, Well, how many NFC
quarterbacks are better than him? He's better than Jalen Hurts right now.
Well, we're talking about Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield had a good quarter today, but was awful for long stretches in the game, awful.
Genos Smith returnovers. Yeah, Baker was awful.
And that by the way, And I've tried to be very positive with Baker because I was so rough on him early. But he can be really reckless and he you can't coach that out of him. He's just a different personality. He literally lives for chip on his shoulder. Sam doesn't have that. Sam's not trying to prove anything other than I'm good. Sam's like a beach boy. He's having a good time. He's an ocean side, you know, linebacker basketball, He's an athlete. He's a great kid. Baker's
got that chip a mile along. Baker's battled his own family at times. It's part of his great fabric and his story. I love, but Geno Smith, there's limitations. Baker is reckless. Donald, You're getting a higher upside with I mean, I always thought Baker was a better pure pocket passer. This year, I'm not sure. And some of it's justin Jefferson, But it's not like Mike Evans and Chris Godwhen and
the guys down there are bad either. I just think letting him walk out the door, what if he goes to an NFC team?
To me, though, you know, use Baker as a good example. Aren't we all all a little bit of product of our past? I mean, Baker was a walk on at Texas Tech at six feet fall. Yeah, Sam Donald six foot four at USC you know, in the in the most turmoil time in the history of the program leads him to eleven plus wins. I mean, in the ugliness of the mid twenty tens, he's a strapping, big arm like he's a confidence.
He won a Rose Bowl against a good Penn State team with a really bad college football coach and no pros around him. I mean, you go back to that year and it was hero ball, that's all it was.
I'm pro Baker, and he's really matured and he's become a good player. But the skill set of the two, Sam is the more dynamic player. Yeah, looking back, like if you did a redraft, yeah, I think both of them probably aren't going one to three, but clearly they've lived up to like they're going to play in the
league for a long time. Sam's high end is higher than Baker because his mobility bigger, and I just think it's pretty clear you watch Sam, He's got an explosive arm and on the move he can really sling it. And that's the playmaking Minnesota what limited in the last limited that team the last couple of years. You know, Cousins was a stagnant can't move if you throw them off the spot. Sales on face got ad lib. No problem.
Let's rip all right, let's talk college football. The twelve team playoff has come out. Listen, let's get the one thing out of the way. I think Bama's better than SMU, but BAMA doesn't have an argument. I watched them get completely shelled against a Oklahoma team that was two and six in conference with like a minus seventy nine point differential in conference. Oklahoma was a bad team and they got I mean literally agree over run by them. So I don't have any problem again that regular season has
to mean something. Yes, Bama's beaten more good teams. If BAMA got in, I wouldn't lose any sleep if SMU did not. But I felt the same way both ways. I would have taken probably a Bama, but SMU after a really hard fought.
Loss kind of felt like the move.
And I also think, listen, Bama's not consistent enough to be a national champion. SMU is not going to be a Nashtional champion. SMU may be a better story, it's better for the sport big picture. I don't think anybody on the heels of Alabama's you know, fifteen year dynasty is losing sleep because they don't get in.
I don't disagree, but if I was part of the SEC, here's what I would say. College football, I mean, based on the numbers, has never been more popular, like more people consistently have never watched more and the SEC ratings have been insane. So we are carrying the popularity of this sport as a conference and have carried the sport really for a long time now. And we only get three teams in. That's where you can just see them, even if it is justified as it is in this situation,
all these teams Ole Miss lost to Kentucky. If any of these SEC teams is ten and two, they are easily in over SMU. We all agree, but like we want guarantees. And this is where I think college football is going to go. If if I'm the Big ten who like the SEC is carrying college football with the ratings, the ACC is simply not like I want to know, because getting into the playoffs is very financial viable for
the conference. Right. That's the same thing with the NCAA tournament, and now we only get we only get one difference, like the difference of us in the SEC is and the ACC is one team that seems crazy. I watch an unhealthy amount of college football. The gap between the two conferences huge. It's Grand Canyon wide. So even if you could justify it records and everything, that's a big picture problem for me. If i'm Greg Sank, yeah, we need some assurances. And this is where like the NFL,
you know, what do tiebreakers go conference record? It's impossible to do tiebreakers and everything in college football because the SEC goes my eight and four? What is that worth in the in the ACC? And I ten and two in the ACC? Like by Big twelve. Arizona State's an incredible story. What would their record be if I put them playing LSU, Bama, Ole, Miss Arkansas? You know, So it's it's not apples d apples at all.
That's right, And that's the hard part.
I think we all agree on that, even if we go, yeah, SMU deserves it, but it's like it's a little out of whack. Now it's first year. I'm not going to complain that much. I don't feel that bad. And I think the committee wanted Alabama because I do think Alabama. The needle moves a little more when you got Alabama playing, because who's SMU is playing Penn State, Like, yeah, Alabama, Penn State just a matter television product, is it?
Yeah?
So here's the one that really cracked me up. So the regular season. The committee said, the regular season matters. We're not going to give Bama three losses, two of which are Mulligan's, Vandy and Oklahoma. But yet in Oregon has the most impressive regular season and arguably the most impressive championship game performance. George is up there as well. They get the winner of the Tennessee Ohio State game, which is a team capable of winning the national championship,
then they could face Texas than Georgia. How did Penn State get.
An easier round out?
They lost at home to Ohio State and got hammered by Oregon. I think they have now they play another game. I think they have a much easier route than Oregon. I thought Oregon kind of got hosed.
Yeah to me, them copying the basketball bracket where you're forced to play team instead of the NFL bracket where you receed by the round. Yes, yeah to me, you gotta change football wise, receed by the rest. Yes, yes, because Oregon has the only undefeated team. Clearly, if you just watched the best team currently in the second best
conference and they get stuck with Ohio State Tennessee. That seems pretty outrageous, I thought, because if they could pick the opponents, I think there's a decent chance that Ohio State would be the last opponent they would want to play. Yeah, maybe Notre Dame. Second Tennessee would be high up there too, like the SMUs the Clemsons. You gotta reced Now, this is where I'm not going to freak out year one. You got to figure it out. But you cannot keep this.
How can Boise and ASU potentially get your opponents than Oregon?
Well, I mean Penn State.
They would say Oregon's gonna play the Rose Bowl, like that's where their game is going to be. I think, yeah, like their home game, so that you know, it's kind of regionality. But plan Ohio State potentially, that's that's pretty difficult.
Yeah, and Ohio State will fill half that stadium. I mean, Penn State gets SMU and Boise State, I mean potentially, it's like Jesus, they the biggest game of the year at home, they lost to Ohio State, and I mean they they they got pushed around me. They they could not stop Oregon. I just thought Penn State and I understand punishing. If you flip Penn State in Ohio State in the playoff, i'd be I think it's it's more
fair now Ohio State Again. The Michigan loss was not only bad, not only at home, but it made you question the entire program. Like when when when Penn State lost to Ohio State, you didn't question the program. You're like, well, Ohio State's better that that that Michigan. I mean, listen, if you want to ask yourself who she who's getting punished, it's Ohio State. I think Tennessee is the sleeper national championship picking this thing I was.
I thought Herbstree had a good point during the show when they released the bracket of you know, Ohio State maybe would rather go on the road because a couple early three and outs, maybe you're down seven to nothing, ten to nothing, that place will turn on your fast because that group's edgy, that group's already pissed off. Yeah, in a weird way at ten and two, hosting a
playoff game is a major disappointment. Yeah, you know, watching that game last night, I thought it was so insane that Clemson is now in the playoffs and Miami's just long gone, even though all season Miami it was like a top five or sixteen, and then Penn State. By takeaway with Penn State, Oregon's tough, and that's their skill group is better top to bottom. I think Penn State has their front seven full NFL guys, the best tight end in the country. They have a one to two
running back combination. Quarterback a little all over the map, but he is extremely talented. And you saw a couple of passes where you went, well, yep, that's a top ten pick, and then you saw a couple other passes You're like, that's a sixth rounder. But you never really know what you're gonna get with them. But they have a lot of talent on their team. Like to me, if the quarterback has a B plus a minus game, they could play with most anyone in this in this tournament.
I'm with you on Tennessee. Their defensive line is really good. Yeah, what's Ohio State's problem right now? Well, if they're offensive, they's had a guy tearing achilles they missing. That can be a rough I'm telling you that place could start booing if it's like nothing in the second quarter.
The weather forecast for this weekend in Columbus is forty degrees and what it's not playing to a finesse down the field team, so Will Howard, who's been hot and cold in big games. It's forty degrees, the pressure's on. You'll be favored and Tennessee d line and Ohio State online. If you're forced to run the ball against Tennessee that's got a seventeen thirteen field to it. That's not gonna be a high scoring game, in my opinion.
One thing that's gonna be. You know, for the most part, in college you get a couple and you hammered this home when they went. When the West Coast teams got in the Big Ten, there aren't as many cold weather games as you think. In the NFL there are, why they play all through December through January. College football usually ends home games the last week in November, November warm weather Bowls.
That's right.
That's where this changed, because they don't. They're they're playing in two weeks, right, and it's Friday night, Saturday Night at South Bend and at Ohio State, which makes sense. I mean, two of the biggest brands Ito's gonna get huge ratings. Plus the NFL plays Saturday, so it gets a little loss in the shuffle. You know, like Texas. The Texas game and the Penn State game are going up against like Raven Steelers, so you know, but those two night games are gonna be by themselves. It could
be really cold. Yeah, I mean it's so it's and a half one thing with playoff football, even with the best teams, it's usually not thirty five to thirty scores, right, It's usually lower scoring. Can't you can't feel your hands? I mean you could have a game in two weeks at Ohio State with it. Couldn't it be twenty seven degrees or Notre Dame? It could be freezing cold?
All right.
I don't get him maybe every six weeks. Love to have him more, Nick Wright. So let me throw this at you. This is not a baseball topic. We don't talk a lot about it, but it's fascinating to me. So I'm agnostic on many things. I'm kind of an agnostic personality, from religion to almost anything. I tend to be just sort of I weigh information and I pick the side I like. I don't have a lot of purity in me right, Like, I don't have a lot of loyalty outside of my wife and my children and friends.
But so baseball comes out with this golden it bat concept where basically you could Bryce Harper gets an extra at bat every game, or an Aaron Judge. You don't have to use it, but you can in a critical situation. And purists are bothered by this, And I'm fascinated by what purists are holding on to. And I've heard baseball people say, oh, I'll never watch another baseball game as if Sandy Coofax's historic run is diluted by a new
golden bat. At that concept in twenty twenty four, it's it's almost like saying it's not perfectly analogous, but gay marriage ruins the sanctity of previous marriage.
Well, if you had a great marriage for forty years, what does it have toen. But also I will also say, anybody that like, we've all come to terms with the guy that most people feel like probably correctly is the greatest baseball player ever played at a time when a lot of the greatest baseball players ever were not allowed to be in the league because they were black or Hispanic, and it's just like, hey, we know that's part of the record, right, we know, like there's people have an ability.
Nobody with a brain looks back and it's like, hey, I checked Terry Bradshaw's stats. Dude, sucks. It's like no, it's like I know that's what the record, but like those what the numbers are. But we all understand intuitively, oh, that was a different era. So if we were to have a golden at bat era and it's like, holy shit, a lot of three home run games out of nowhere, it's like, oh yeah, because they change the rules. People are smarter than we give them. But that's what I'm asking.
We had the cattle steroid era, so all the records are in power, records are meaning, and nobody really knows who took it. I mean seriously, it's like trying to figure out which rich people cheated on their taxes.
How about we start with all of them?
Right? Like, who knows? So my take is what are purests holding onto? Are these forty eight year old men who still collect baseball cards?
Like the idea?
So the sport makes two changes both crush, defensive shift, eliminate rush, and at pitchclock. Okay, so so all of a sudden, the defensive shift more base hips, Well, that's messing with the previous six eight years.
Right, And the thing closest to the golden at bad is the ghost runner ghost runner thing, which you know in made baseball cooler for the regular season. You don't want to put in the playoffs, that's fine.
So what are purest holding onto that are outraged by a new concept? Well, I don't understand peris.
I'm not the the I mean I understand them, I don't agree with them because ultimately, what my one of my fundamental beliefs that bothers I think purists, But it's not even a belief, it's just a fact. Sports are simply entertainment products. That's all it is. We are part of the entertainment industry. We are in We are fighting for attention and relevance in sports. And there is nothing inherently more valuable, moral, ethical important to American professional football
than American Ultimate frisbee. But one is the most valuable television property in the world, and the other is something the best in the world at almost assuredly needs a real job because it doesn't pay the bills. So why is that? Because people like watching one and don't care about the other. That's exclusively why, there is no other reason. And the idea that you have a birthright to people's attention, go ask course, racing, go ask box. You don't and
so all of these. So here's the real reason I love the Golden A bad idea. I like baseball, I love basketball, and I'm worried about basketball. I am legitimately worried about the NBA because they have two massive issues that everyone knows is a problem, and I don't know that they have the stomach a dress for the change that's needed. One is one that's been talked about a ton historically, which is the load management, superstars not playing
whatever it is. I will give a quick anecdote on why that's my thoughts on that, then I'll get to the real thing. I was in LA for seventy two hours over Thanksgiving because our son lives there and he couldn't. We brought thanks even to him, essentially that Friday night Lakers thunder, and I'm like, you know what, My wife's grandparents are with us. They're ninety one and ninety three. They love Lebron, had never seen him play, and I'm like, you know, what's the point of making money if you
don't spend it on stuff like this. So I bought six tickets, not courtside, but first road behind courtside. Not cheap, right, But what I was like, it's a I bought him at noon with full confidence. Well, Lebron's gonna play because Lebron plays, you know what I mean, Like Lebron did he get hurt last night? Then he's playing like even though he's the oldest guy in the league. And if it were any other superstar, I would have when my
wife mentioned to me, should we do it? I would have said, yes, But let's wait until like five o'clock to find out. That's terrible for the business. The other thing that is getting a lot of attention is the NBA's at its core. The NBA's popularity is based on is that dude flying Holy shit? Liked not here's another thirty five footer And strategically, just like the shift, strategically was smart, but from a television product, it was a disaster.
Everybody looks the same every game, every possessions.
This game looks the same. There's no different styles, there's no anything, And we're minimizing athleticism. John Moriant goes on the record is like, I'm done dunking Anthony Everwards. Taking thirteen three is a game, It's awful, clearly a disaster, a disaster. And so when I say massive changes, what I mean is have a real conversation about hey, dunks are also worth three now? Or this does this?
Two suggestions one and I said this seven years ago on the air and had a graphic take out the corner three it impossible to defend.
Yes, okay that that agree? That should be done tomorrow.
So it goes right into the bench, you put it, you move it out of about six inches, make it a real arc, make it a real arc. And so that's just much easier to defend it. You can be on players or this would be my This is something I've thought about as well, and I don't know. I think you could do this is that you get fifteen a game.
That's what I said, Oh, yes, exactly right, whatever the number is. That's the other thing I was, fifteen points of your offense. Your offense. Yeah, and by the way, you can still shoot them after that, but they're worth two. There's Kurt Goldsberry had the idea years ago that I thought was fascinating, which was, you know how baseball stadiums, everyone picks their own dimensions. You got a green monster, you got a short portray, Yankee Stadium, Royal Stadium as cavernous.
Kurt Goldsberry says, each year, every team draws their three point line, and if you like, no and the I and I know that sounds ridiculous, but his point was some teams will be like, we don't have one. Well, that's not who we are. We're building a old school beat you up. You know what I mean, big, big man style. The the Blazers when they had prime Dame Lillard might have been like, ours is from thirty seven feet out because we have the one guy who can.
And if that were the case, you would have you would know, man, I'd better be able to play a bunch of different ways, score a bunch of different ways, because shit tonight we're in Oklahoma City and there's no threes whatever. So I don't know the exact right answer. What I know is this, if the NBA dies does not make a massive change, it is in huge bubbles because they have they have still they're still suckling off the teat of Lebron Steph kd your most.
John Edwards, do not dunk the one of the sets.
I mean the Jordan logo.
If you really think of even Doctor Jay's highlights today, Connie Hopkins when I was a kid, the car doing.
Of it's and the here was another question, man.
Oh, let me tell this at you this. I said this about the NFL. I said, can you I mentione if the NFL only allowed the tush push and bombs, there's no intermediates, no bubble screens, It's just power running or bombs. That's the NBA. It's not as appealing.
By and by the way, the NFL one year into the tush push, it was like we're looking into bandness And it wasn't because of safety. It was because that's terrible TV. That's bad for our product. It's not exciting, it's ugly, and ultimately we're a TV show. And so I don't I don't know the answer, but I do know that continuing down this path is disastrous.
So I.
Would love it if baseball did something drastic, because then I think there is the NBA would look at itself hopefully and be like, well, the NFL. Every year it's like hey, rule change, figured out hip drop tackle. I'd never heard that term three years ago. Last year it was the most dangerous things ever happened in the sport. This year it's gone like defenseless receiver to hit the quarterback low Tom Brady. Tom Brady blows out his knee. They're like, massive rule change. You now no longer hit
the quarterback low. Doesn't matter. Aaron Rodgers breaks his collar bone. They're like, hey, you can't fall on quarterbacks now either. Don't care if you don't like it. Baseball's making changes. The NBA is just like, can we interest you in a new All Star game format? And it's like, bro, that's not the issue here. And here's one other NBA question. I didn't I forgot who first posed this, but every
since I read it, I'm like, oh, that's interesting. Is there a single NBA player under thirty that is more famous than Caitlin Clark?
No, no, no, there's not.
There's not. That's a problem.
I'll tell you something that's fascinating. Here's something I talked. I led my show with us today and unfortunately, I'm sure you probably didn't have time for it. You used to listen religiously but those days are over. But the point being, no, that's just not so I led with this today, Deebo Samuel brought pretty comes out yeah and says, you know, I love Debo and we'll get him the ball more. And I thought, oh, okay, So a year ago, nine months ago, running backs are dead in this league.
The top five running teams now in the league are all playoff teams. The top six receivers receiving yards, six of the top ten round losing teams. And so it's it's Davante Adams, cryptic messages, Jamar Chase is noisy, it's elite neighbors, it's Deebo Samuel, it's Deontay Johnson, it's George Pickens.
So it's even Aj Brown, by the way, on a good team. Everything was fine, and then he's like, I'm pissed. I said, it's not fine.
I said, we gave receivers for about two years the keys to the kingdom, but they are sports cars. They don't work well in the winner. You can't really drive him seven days a week. And running backs this is you've you've loved this take and running backs no, no, no, they're the SUV year round groceries, ocer practice date all weather. Actually always elevate the quarterback, always young quarterback, old quarterback. They're also great. They help you take leads and eat
the clock and help you protect them. The receivers, don't they all block or they don't play. They're the grinders, they're the most running back Sakwon Barkley, I want the ball more, but I'm sacrificing for the team. They never You never hear a running back complaining we're throwing it too much to the star receiver. And it's a classic example is that we gave it's the NBA position of NFL. Wide receiver breaks the huddle first, he's on his own. We gave you the keys for like two years. We
immediately had a wide receiver. Bubble Chiefs win without Tyreek Hill. You can argue they can spend money on defense. They're just a much better team now, more complete team. And in the end, it goes back nine months ago we lamented the future of running backs. It is now in one season, Baltimore, Detroit, Green Bay, Washington. Here comes Isaiah Pacheco, the Rams, Kiren Wims. It is a running back quarterback league. Again in nine months.
So so that was and I didn't see it coming this quickly or die. But what I did wonder was, I was like, Okay, one of the things that happened to running backs was yes, the game changed, but the other it wasn't just that the game changed. It wasn't just your position isn't as valuable. It was there's too many B minuses, meaning like there you could seemingly find a not great, but a good running back anywhere, practice squad, seventh round, undrafted free agent like. And the reason for
that was very obvious, which is our whole lives. The best athlete at seven years old where they put him running back like if it wasn't the quarter like it was like, oh, you're the best player on the team. We're gonna if we're if you're either gonna be a dual threat quarterback or the running back, because we're gonna
hand you the ball a bunch. So in high school and college, there were just too many good ones, which means seems like, okay, I could pay X for a great one or basically nothing for a good one, so I'll do that. And what I wondered aloud was are we about to see in a few years the same thing happened to receivers because now if you're a great athlete as a kid, they're putting you at receiver. It is seven on seven every damn year in the draft. This year there were ten receivers taken in the first
forty picks. And then when we're like hold on that, everybody thinks there are twenty five top ten receivers. Like if you really put pencil to paper and it's like, okay, is he a top ten receiver? Well, I don't, no, man, because that Garrett Wilson thinks he is. DeVante Adams thinks he is. Tyreek Hill thinks he is Jayleen Waddle thinks
he is. There's four just in the AFC East, and you keep going is Terry mclaurins, Nicocollins is Deebo Samuel Is, Brandon ayuk Is and I've mentioned Tyreek Kill, Jamar Chase aj Brown, CD lamb a Mon Like there's all of these, it's like, well they're thirty million a person. But Brian Thomas Junior was the fourth receiver taken, So like, is there going to be the same type of correction where teams are like, no, I'm not paying thirty million for a receiver. There's six more great ones coming out in
the draft, Like, I'm just not doing it right. So I saw that, I wondered if that was happening. I still think that's probably going to happen. The other thing that has happened this season is and maybe I'm maybe this is just because I turned forty and I instantly developed old man opinions. But Malik neighbors being a diva receiver as a rookie in fury it's too much and like,
in a way, it's too much. Man, say, like, listen, I get that there's been a we're allowed to be divas, so we kind of lean into it from the position. Got it, so be it no problem. But t Ow and o Jo Sinko were not pains in the ass their first year in the league. They weren't like they were great, and then they they developed years. Yes, once they had pelts on the wall, I see, I'm like, man, everywhere, I look like George Pickens, an awesome player, huge pain
in the ass from day one. Malik Neighbors it took him eight games before he's like, why didn't I get the ball to were down thirty nothing? It's like, buddy, you're the best player on the team. I get it, but you it's too early lead for this, It's too early. And so the and then the AJ Brown thing really irritated me on a just a team level. It's like, man, there there was nothing wrong. Everything. You guys are on a ten game winning streak, you're you guys are undefeated
when you playing there seemingly everything's all good. The only public narrative should be, man, Sakuon Barkley's gonna break Eric Dickerson's record, and our defense is better than you idiots thought it would be. And then privately, if you want to be like god, damn it, so be it. But it's that was like AJ Brown, you're on your third contract, you just got paid again. What are we doing?
He was overshadowed by a star running back in Tennessee, Derek Henry, and he's overshadowed again with a star running back. No great receiver has been overshadowed in his prime by the two best receivers over the last six years in the league. He's the guy.
Oh, that's interesting. I didn't even think about that.
So he keeps going to play, he's going time out. I get a good quarterback, not a great one. Tannehill Jalen I'm the best player on the team, and both become run centric.
What are you doing to my career?
What are you right?
But but the but here's the here's the thing about that. But you keep getting paid any like, you keep getting top of the market.
Deals, but money every time. You know, I'm not gonna speak for anybody, but when people get raises, it's good for about three checks and then you're like, I want the respect. Guys are driven much more by respect than they are money.
I know that part. I totally agree with I the and I agree with you the But whenever, like somebody loses a job or whatever and the reaction on Twitter is either still getting paid or whatever, I disagree with that because for someone who has been a j in it, it's gonna sound like I'm contradicting myself, But I'll come around. He's been He's not newly rich. He's been rich long enough that that's his normal. So the money doesn't really
solve things. The point I'm making is I would understand it a little bit more if you were in a contract year. If it's like, yo, you're costing me money because but the Eagles preemptively paid him this offseason early. And one of the reasons I would think you do that is to stave this off, Like, hey, no matter how we have to run the team, you're gonna know you've been taken care of. So even if this year your numbers are down, it's not costing you anything because
we just paid you. So that's the reason I brought it up, Like I do get why guys who are in contract years are.
Like no, I mean, aj Browne, give me my not being selfish. Because also, the NFL record book nobody cares. It's not like baseball. It really isn't. Nobody cares about the NFL record But we know Brady and Jerry, Rice and Montana and Mahomes are all over it, like and Breeze, So like a wide receiver, like, listen, we know you're great. If you get paid and you win a ring, it kind of solves everything.
Well, and that's and also like if there's anyone on the like, could you imagine and this is to your point if after this last game, Saquan out of nowhere in the locker room was like, yeah, I mean, listen, everything's great, but I'm really sick of jail and sniping my touch. I should have ten more. Like how about we call a handoff at the one instead of the toushbush. People would be like, you laugh because it's laughable to think of him doing it. But it's used to receivers
being ridiculous. We're totally used to it, one hundred percent used to it, like the yeah, I mean, I don't, I can't, I can't even bad ones Kadarius Tony, this dope, he's bounced. He just wants to. He barely got on the field in Cleveland Fair caught a punt and taunted a guy. It's like you just have it in your DNA, like you just have It's it's unbelievable, all.
Right, Time for another edition. We released this on Thursday night and the YouTube channel or Friday on the podcast Sharper Square. Chad Millman co host of the Favorites. All of our odds provided by DraftKings. So last week a lot of favorites were in favor for me and didn't necessarily do well. I'm still surprised how the Rams played perhaps the most flawless half to game of offensive football by any team on the season. I was just watching some clips of it today and they did everything right.
Nobody dropped a pass ball, never hit the turf, no holding it. It was a thing of art. And it's interesting because now this week you get the Bills getting two and a half at the Lions.
And I like the Bills here because.
They're getting Kincaid, the tight end is healthy, they're they're getting Coleman back. It was almost as if it was this Sandwich game, even though it's McVeigh and Stafford. You know, Buffalo travels west, they know half the stadium is going to be theirs. They're looking at that Detroit game even though it's not an AFC or a divisional game, and they had a couple of guys on the cusp that could play or not, and they elected not and they got caught flat footed when the Rams played a flawless game.
So I like Buffalo plus two and a half now, Sharper square.
Well, the line has moved from one and a half Detroit to two and a half Detroit, and I will tell you that the majority of betting tickets have been coming in on the Buffalo Bills. So when you see a line move that goes in the direction of one side that is opposite of where the betting tickets are. That's a reverse line move, and that sizes you. The professional betters are on the Lions, and they've been on the Lions at one and a half and two. At two and a half, you start to see the pressure point.
You'll find an equal number who still like the Lions at two and a half, and they take it up to three, and you'll find the number of wise guys who are coming in at two and a half on the Bills and liking the Bills because they like Josh Allen. I will tell you I'm a Lions backer. In this game, I bettered at one and a half, I bettered at two. As healthy as the Bills are starting to get with players coming back, this may be the healthiest the Lions
have been in eight weeks. They could get a lot of guys back on the defensive line that has just been decimated over the past three or four weeks. Also, the Lions haven't played on the road since November twenty fourth at the Colts. They haven't played period for ten days. You talk about the Bills, they just had a gauntlet, right, they had the Chiefs. They had the Niners. Those were massive games for them, getting over huge humps. They go on the road, have an intense, nearly perfect game that
just isn't perfect enough against the Rams. Now they got to go on the road again against what might be the best team in the NFL, and they could face them in the Super Bowl. So you know you're not wrong by betting the Bills at two and a half. But if you said I like the Lions, you'd be on the sharp side too. It's a pretty even split at this number. Just at this number. Okay, Steelers getting five and a half at the Eagles. And the reason I like this is because pitch Burgh's mostly been a
pretty good team against the run. If you look at what the Eagles have decided to do since the buy, it is throw the ball less.
Green Bay's doing this too. They are a run first team, as they should be. Their best player is Saq One. Their second best player is AJ Brown. I think Pittsburgh can have some vulnerababilities against the pass, but I don't think Jalen hurts from the pocket. I mean, Aj Brown's not happy he's only getting six and a half targets. Mike Tomlin is the best underdog coach in the league four and a half points. These two don't play very often. It feels like a lot of points to a very
good roster. Even if Pittsburgh lost, If Pickens plays, they have enough big play ability to back door cover. The line seems out of whack. I'll take the Steelers sharper square.
Yeah, it's sharp.
And this is what we talked about on the Favorites podcast was why isn't this number three? Why isn't this number three and a half? When the number is so out of whack, you either are being asked to do something that is too easy, which the books never do, or you feel like you're missing something. I don't know what we're missing here. Like you just mentioned, Tomlin is the best underdog coach in the league. Tomlin is the best underdog coach in a generation. Let's put this in perspective.
You win fifty three percent of your bets. You're an incredible sports better, right, that's what you're looking for. So when we talk about trends, and we talk about analytics on certain opportunities and metrics and betting, if we can find a trend that is fifty six percent against the spread over in historically relevant period of time. You tend to want to play that if all the other factors
are in your direction. Tomlin, he's sixty plus percent in just about every category as an underdog, you say, all right, between three and seven two key numbers. Seven percent, you say on the road as a dog, sixty four percent, Like you can't name a category where he's not sixty plus percent. And then if you look at the matchup too. You mentioned Saquan right, the Eagles are the only team in the NFL that is running the ball at a
higher percenters than they're passing the ball. And I would not think, oh my god, Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown there's you know, strife and now they're getting along again. Doesn't mean that Kellen Moore is going to change this offense and all of a sudden try to make it so. AJ Brown is getting more and more touches. This is who they are. Jalen Hurts is throwing the fewest passes in the NFL this year, So I would expect a
low scoring game. Wise, guys are expecting a low scoring game that plays to the advantage of the team that is more than a field goal underdog. So yeah, that's the sharp side.
I like the Broncos minus four, both teams off a bye. I think Denver's got a really good defense. Now again, Jamis went and I think you can beat it down the field. That's not really what the Colts do. I think there are ways to score on virtually every team in this league. And I think Cleveland is one of those weird bad teams that can be highly productive throwing the ball down the field. But it should be noted in that game Denver eventually got picked sixes and turn
the game around with their defense. Is I think Anthony Richardson is struggling with Shane Steichen. Look what Shane Steiken did with Gardner Minshew Okay, Shane Steiken as a rookie with Justin Herbert set records made Jalen Hurts an MVP level player and he's pretty average from the pocket. That passing game is limited, and I think it's limited because Anthony Richardson may not be a pro starting quarterback. I get an experience coach an excellent defense at home against
the Dome team. You know, I love the number four. It's probably square, but I like Denver. Here. Give me Sean Payton Shanahan McVeigh read extra time Sharper square.
Yeah, you know the answer, it's totally square. Wise guys love the Colts here. It's been bet down. It was at four and a half, it's at four. It'll probably go down to three and a half. If you want to bet the Colts, get it now, because it's only going.
To go in their direction.
You're right about the Broncos coming off a bye, and there is a lot of public sentiment on the Broncos right now. The last time anyone saw them, they were winning in dramatic fashion against the Browns, right they were getting two pick sixes, they were covering with a miracle and an interception in the end zone. The Broncos are covering by five points per game. Historically, teams that are covering by five points per game over the course of the season once we get past Week five only covered
about a forty four percent clip against the spread. So there's one trend to help the cause of the cults. But also, I don't know that wise guys agree with you about Anthony Richardson. I think there's a little bit of Bryce Young sort of in the way he's come back from being benched since he's come back. Eighth rated passer according to Pro Football Focus, fourth in big plays according to Pro Football Focus, big play throws according to Pro Football Focus. So it's not as bad as you
would think. And I do think there's something key here. Remember what happened with the Browns against the Broncos on that in that primetime game, they didn't have Riley Moss a cornerback.
They had William Vance.
William Vance he might have still he might still be giving up touchdowns to Jerry Judy as we speak, like he was getting torched in that game. Riley Moss is the only guy who didn't practice this week for the Broncos. So if he's not playing, I think that's a severely diminished defense and it impacts what they can do all across the board. So there's trend reasons. There's inflation reasons. The line is just too high, the wise guys think, and there's some matchup reasons.
Packers Seahawks is a really interesting game. Packers, like the Eagles, have taken passing attempts away from Jordan Love in the last month. They're now a power run team that makes far fewer mistakes. But Green Bay is like a younger version of Philadelphia. They have just decided we're a power run team.
We do have.
Weapons over the top, but we're not going to let our quarterback throw more than like twenty two to twenty four times, and we're going to reduce the errors. And when green Bay does reduce the errors, they're really really good football team. I like Seattle, I still don't think they're an elite team. I think they're a playoff team, maybe in a OK division. I think green Bay is absolutely a playoff team and an excellent division. I like green Bay minus two and a half Sharper square.
One hundred percent sharp at two and a half. If it gets to three, it's a pass. And if it gets to three, you know, the wise guys will probably want to bet on Seattle. But at two and a half, it's one hundred percent. The Packers for the reasons you just stated, and the most important thing, it's like playing SEC in the MAC right. The Packers are losing really close games and winning really close games in the best division in football. They are battle tested every single week.
The Seahawks, they're winning a flukey game against the Cardinals a few weeks ago, then they're getting the Cardinals in a class at Kyler Murray game last week, and they won a miraculous game against the Jets, which they should have lost, but they got Leonard Williams running a pick six back for you know, ninety something yards. So they're a much better team since the buy. And credit to their coaching staff and everything they've done. And they've improved
their defense significantly and their offense. By the way, you know Zach Scharbiney and what he did last week was a great match for how they want to build their running scheme. But the wise guys like the Packers here, it's just it's a better team. And by the way, Matt Laflora is a wizard when it comes to covering the spread. It's very possible when fifteen years if Matt laflour is still coaching the Packers, he's got Mike Tomlin like stats as a favorite and as an underdog covering the spread.
Okay, game, I want you to tell me where to go? Is Bears plus six and a half at the Viking. So Minnesota is a really good team. But that game with Atlanta was tied going into the fourth quarter. I've seen them against teams like the Jags go zero for five in the red zone. It's a good team with a quarterback having a great year. But six and a half is a lot. It's a divisional game, and the Bears before that disaster in the Bay Area, which was probably easier to predict than I would have admitted. I
do think they'll get back on track. I do think they have a very good roster. Is again seems out of whack. Six and a half. I mean, I think it's I honestly see it as a go either way game in.
The fourth quarter.
Probably take the better coaching staff, but sharper square Bears plus the points.
So the Bear.
It's it's the sharp ish play only because and we talk about this all the time on the show, you want to get the best of the number. Twenty four hours ago, this game was seven and a half, and then it went down to seven, and now it's down to six and a half. That alone tells you, Colin, that you're on the sharp side if you're betting the Bears. The number has been moving in their direction. The line is way too inflated, and you're getting a very bi loo on the Bears. Sell high on the Vikings spot.
The Bears were a train wreck. They couldn't have looked any worse. They were out of it against the Niners in the first half. Right, they had four total yards and they had five punts and the Niners had three
hundred and nineteen yards. Whereas the Vikings, You're right, that game was tied and they really blew it open in the fourth quarter because of a couple of bad plays and turnovers on the part of the Falcons, not because of anything magical that the Vikings did to run away with it, even though Sam Darnold had an incredible game, but they have had their hiccups. Brian Flores defense has not been as good in the second half of the year as it was in the first half of the year. So, yes,
you're on the sharp side, but it's a caution. Know that if you're playing this number, you've given away some value.
So I think the Titans getting four and a half with the Bengals. Of my prediction is that's the ugly game. I ask you every week for a game that I've missed. My guess is the Titans a pretty good defensive team at home playing with pride against the Cincinnati team. You can just move the ball. I mean, if not for a gaff by the Cowboys special teams, we're going to overtime against a very mediocre Dallas team with Cooper Rush
is Tennessee plus four and a half. The side here is that the game I'm missing.
Well, certainly it's a side like it was at five and it's come down. So that tells you the wise guys are betting on the Titans, because certainly the public isn't going to be betting on the Titans. It's a really tricky game. I haven't touched this game one hundred percent. The value is on the Titans. It's not the game I was going to talk to you about. But the challenge here, You've basically got a one dimensional Bengals team, right.
All they can really do is throw the ball to Higgins and Chase Joe Burrow.
Higgins, Joe Burrow's Chase. That's their game plan.
They can't really run the ball, they don't have a screen game, they don't really have play action to speak of.
All of those things that could slow.
Down a better than average defense in the Titans, and they have no defense to speak of. The problem is Will Levis. He's not any better than Cooper Rush. Right, he's got a better arm. Maybe he can fling it downfield further, but he couldn't even beat up on the Jaguars at home last week despite so many opportunities. So kind of banking on the fact, you're hoping that when there's an opening, Will Levis can convert, you're going to take the Titans, because if you're a better that's what
you do. You bet, you bet the number, but know that you're you're playing with fire here because you're not just betting the number.
You're betting Will Levis. All right, tell me the game I missed.
You didn't talk about Cleveland and Kansas City. This number is dropped from six and a half to four and a half.
So the Browns are the side.
The Browns have been the side. The Browns are the side until it gets to about three and a half. And this one, you know in the betting community, it's there's two things that are sort of scary right now.
It's the frequency and.
Regularity with which you can count on fading Patrick Mahomes when he's a favorite of more than three, and the frequency and regularity with which you can count on betting Mike Tomlin as an underdog, I said, percentage wise, if something is happening six out of ten times, which is basically what is happening with both of those categories. Tom lenn is a dog, Mahomes is a favorite of more than three, it means that four times those bets are going to lose this year, they haven't been losing at all,
And so wise guys know in this spot. The spot is to play Cleveland, but it's a little bit scarier because you keep waiting for the other shooter drop. A lot of guys, including myself, thought it would happened last week against the Chargers.
No JK.
Dobbins, no Lad McConkey, and it looked like it was going to And then again the Chiefs kind of fell apart because they have no protection in the offensive line. So the Browns pressure the ball, pressure the quarterback more than the Chargers and are better at it. And meanwhile the Chiefs now they're signing guys off the street to
play in the defensive backfield. And if you want to talk about a quarterback who could have a good time slinging it against a wonky defensive back, let's talk about Jamis Now are you potentially going to suffer a pick six that can ruin it for you? Sure, but the wise guys are willing to literally make that bet.
So they're playing Cleveland.
You know, I know the games a couple of weeks away, but I think it's really interesting. The Ohio State hosting Tennessee first round playoff game, to me is one of the more fascinating games ever. So you take a warm weather team from Knoxville and everybody's having to wait for the playoff to start. That means the weather's getting uglier. My wife was in Chicago to the day and she's like, it is cold.
Yeah.
So you take a warm weather SEC team up to a superior roster. I believe in Ohio State. You get an Ohio State team that's got a little insecurity and lack of identity off a historically bad loss. So they'll play with incredible intensity and focus. You know, Ohio State really is coming with their hair on fire. Yeah, and now Ohio State's O line is the weak unit on their roster, and the D line for the volunteers is the strength of their roster. The weather could play a factor.
Ohio State's greatest asset is their vertical nature on the perimeter, it could be thirty eight degrees and windy. I looked at the forecast now it's fourteen days out or twelve days or ten days. I looked at it about four days ago and I'm like, oh, it's going to be forty one degrees and wet. How does the betting community or have they looked at that game?
Well, right now the number is seven and a half. People have been talking about it. I think there's a lot of circumstances still to go. I'm looking in the app right now. Not a ton of action on the game at this point, and like this is so early you can't really take anything of it. Majority of money and tickets are on Tennessee. I also think a week's bought for the for Ohio State is their quarterback, Like he's not sort of an elite passer who can take
advantage of the talent they have. The elite talent, you know, top round, first round draft pick talent they have at Ohio State.
You and I have talked about Ohio State.
A lot, and Ryan Day the ad came out today and said he supports Ryan Day. He wants Ryan Day to be back as the head coach like I think there's so much tension inside that community right now about not just beating Tennessee, but the having to advance that his teams have shown up and played type in big games.
They play type.
So if you're seeing the early numbers come in on Tennessee, I think it's partly a fade of Ryan Day's ability to have his team play loose and take full advantage of the talent that they have on their roster
Of volume