Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Lamar Jackson Is “1 of 1”, Saquon For MVP? Sean Payton Found His Next Drew Brees, Betting NFL Week 13 - podcast episode cover

Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Lamar Jackson Is “1 of 1”, Saquon For MVP? Sean Payton Found His Next Drew Brees, Betting NFL Week 13

Nov 30, 20241 hr 9 min
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Episode description

Colin’s top takes of the week!

He starts with Lamar Jackson putting on a clinic against the Chargers on Monday Night Football and explains why Lamar is “1 of 1” at the position (3:30). Then, he reacts to the Eagles beatdown of the Rams powered by a career night for Saquon Barkley and argues that Saquon should be in MVP contention (16:30).

He’s joined by John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” to break down why the 49ers need to enter rebuild mode (27:15), why Sean Payton has found his next Drew Brees in rookie QB Bo Nix (34:30) and why quarterbacks Bryce Young and Will Levis have earned the opportunity to start for another year (46:00)

Finally, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 13 of the NFL slate!

57:30 - Steelers vs Bengals

59:00 - Cardinals vs Vikings

1:01:30 - 49ers vs Bills

1:03:15 - Titans vs Commanders

1:06:30 - Texans vs Jaguars

1:08:30 - Chargers vs Falcons

1:10:45 - Seahawks vs Jets

1:13:00 - Buccaneers vs Panthers

1:14:30 - USC vs Notre Dame

Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! 

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See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

The volume.

Speaker 2

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The last three seasons ten and one, sixteen touchdowns, four picks, and there are just certain arguments you just got to give up on. He's really good. Does this count as a big win? This felt like a big game for me. Monday night football John versus Jim Harbor. I felt like a kind of a big win. I lose track. I'm trying to keep track of all the big wins and not big wins for Lamar Jackson. I'll be honest with you, It's going to be a two cigar night. And I

like the Chargers. I got friends with the Chargers, but basically Baltimore is the adult Chargers. Remember a couple of years ago, and you're like, the Ravens need more dynamic playmakers. They draft z A Flowers this offseason, they get Derek Henry. What are the Chargers need? Probably a more of a star power running back, at least two more offensive playmakers.

Quentin Johnson can't catch three drops tonight. So like they knew when they let go of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, they knew they were going to be perimeter light, So they wanted to get Quentin Johnson as good as he could possibly be. Nice deep threat, but can't catch Lad McConkie, nice slot, average tight ends. They lost Gerald Everett, you know, to the Bears, so you kind of knew that the Chargers are had a schedule. I mean, last year they

lost to bad teams. This year the Chargers are six to zero against losing records and they're one and four against teams with winning records. So that this is what the Chargers are right now. It's a really good football team that is perimeter light. They need two more playmakers and it kind of feels like they're Ravens. When it was very very Lamar Jackson Reliant, Mark Andrews was great, but you were like, they need two more wide receivers.

Then they draft eventually z A Flowers and then they add Derek Henry in you, okay, Lamar, it's a little bit like Josh Allen before they got James Cook the running back, drafted kid and Kaid first round out of Utah. They keep drafting wide receivers. Now you look at it and you're like, Okay, Josh Allen's their best player, but they're not totally Josh Allen reliant tonight, Derek Henry big runs, Say Flowers big catches Hey Flowers is great. You can give him a drag route for eight yards, turns it

into twenty eight. He can beat you over the top. So the Chargers are a little like Josh Allen pre all the weapons and Lamar Jackson pre the weapons. Those teams eventually meet a Kansas city. You just can't even if a quarterback's great Lamar and Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, you can't do it yourself. You can see the interior protection tonight was not good for Justin Herbert. So in the second half the guard center guard for the Chargers getting pushed back and not a lot of separation by

the receivers. Lad mcconkey's a twitchy, quick players not a burner though, so you don't get a lot of separation. Makes Herbert play a more perfect game, whereas a Flowers you could dump him something in the flat, something underneath boom makes it into a big play. Can also be guys over the top. So it's just like the Ravens are the grown up version of the Chargers, who are

way ahead of schedule by the way. The other thing that jumps out to me is that, you know, the Chargers were number one in total defense, top three and third down defense, so they're great situationally, and yet what did Lamar do tonight Three for three on fourth down, fifty percent on third down, three hundred and seventy one

yards seven point one yards of play. It's a first quarterback all year that worked the Chargers, Lamar Jackson, and you know, it's just it's just like so many great golfers played during Tiger Wood's prime, Phil Micholson's and Alzheimer. Take out Tiger. He's got six more majors probably, and

nine more tournament wins. So I just think, you know, the quarterbacks to me that jump out in this league, there's about six of them, and Lamar and Josh Allen have been sort of marginalized at times because they can't beat Mahomes good luck. But this felt like a big game and Lamar was, you know, the centerpiece of it. The Oedther thing is, there was a couple of thoughts. Number One, aggressive works. This game really changed. When the Ravens go for it in their own sixteen get it

and leads to a touchdown. Aggressive wins, and you know, I've talked about that all the time in sports. If you have the pieces, go for it. They did turn the game around. Secondly, there was a lot you heard the young media lamenting nobody cares about running backs. Running Backs aren't getting paid. You know, the top three rushers in the NFL right now, we're all free agents. Teams aggressively went out and got Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs.

Teams eventually pursued top running backs. They're not going to get top of the market money. But analytics tells you you probably shouldn't sign running back to a second big contract. That's just analytics. I mean, if you're one of these, you know, these ivy leaguers who loves the analytics. Part of the analytics is you shouldn't be paying running backs after like a fourth or fifth year in the league. Okay,

that's part of analytics. The other thing is, you know, I've said this about Lamar, don't really compare Lamar Jackson to anybody else. Lamar is an outlier. He's a unicorn. They are going to be a kind of a run first team in big spots as long as Lamar Jackson is their quarterback. It's it's you know, it's no different if you got a fastball pitcher, that's your outpitch. Don't throw breaking stuff in big at bats in the World Series.

Lamar Jackson on big downs with Derrick Henry, run the ball when they when they move away from that identity last week or in the playoff game. That's what I worry about. Baltimore lean on Lamar and Derek Henry in that offensive line. So right now, running is cool again. Look at the teams that lead the NFL and rushing Philly Steelers, Lions, Packers, Ravens. What are they forty three and nineteen or after the night forty four and nineteen.

And part of this is again defenses linebackers are smaller. Why because the game's more about space Like the NBA game, it's more about space. Linebackers now are faster and smaller. Safeties are faster and smaller. What does that mean? Get powerful run games? So that's the beauty of sports. That's what I love about sports and football. It's very very cyclical. Running backs were going nowhere. Running backs create the right tempo. Running backs Detroit's a great example. Running backs value is

often not the big play. It's you have a lead and they kill the clock. Detroit is going to lead ninety nine percent of the games they play, including potentially the Super Bowl. What makes Detroit so lethal is that when they get a lead, they can play keep away. They got two great backs and they'll just with that offensive line, they'll go on an eight minute drive, eleven play drives. So running backs aren't just about the home run. They're about playing with a lead. And I mean you

start looking at these teams right now. That's why Detroit and Philadelphia could absolutely win the Super Bowl. Stacked rosters, but the ability to lead, Yes, hit home runs out of the run game, but basically keep a Patrick Mahomes or a Josh Allen off the field. That's a big component to it. So, you know, I just with Lamar Jackson, I think sometimes you know, there was no other Michael Jordan. I mean, Kobe Bryant was like Michael Light, but there

was no other Michael. There was no other Charles Berkley, there was no other Kareem. Nobody else had the sky hook down. And I think Lamar Jackson you just have to take him for what he is. He's the most athletic quarterback I've ever seen. He's wildly entertaining. He is a significantly better passer in the last three to four years than anybody gives him credit for. And once again

he wins a big game in the AFC. If you're playing Sunday night football and Monday night football and the late window on Fox or CBS, you know, it doesn't matter what network you're paying. Those standalone games could be Amazon. Those are big games. I mean, the idea isn't baseball. You got seventeen of min eighteen weeks. They're big games, especially when you get to November and December and January. So I never bought into Lamar Jackson's not a big

game player. Yes, in the playoffs he has struggled against the Chiefs, so's Josh Allen. It's the Chiefs. Arguably, if they win three straight, nobody's done it in league history. A lot of people lost the Tiger Woods, right, A lot of people lost to Jordan that were great teams. So Lamar tonight, I think these are final stats. Sixteen to twenty two, couple of touchdowns, one hundred and seventy seven total yards, and that's what they asked of him.

They don't need him to throw thirty four times a game. That's not what Baltimore is. I worry about when Baltimore throws over twenty eight times a game, they get away from their identity. Tonight ran the ball. Lamar made as usual, big throws when he had to big throw over the top, great on third down, perfect on fourth down. A couple other notes here to throw at you. People will look at the Chargers, you know, and you hear this well,

I mean, Justin Herbert can't win the big game. One of the things I would say is when you watch Justin Herbert, how often are his receivers truly open? He's having to throw them open. And when his pass protection is not great and in the second half it wasn't as good. I think they're pretty good at tackle. They're not necessarily as good guard center guard. There's not a lot of separation. And I mean there was a lot for Lamar Jackson tonight. A lot of it was underneath.

There were open guys. There were a lot of open guys, and Lamar found up now. He missed on a couple of sideline routes. He had an open receiver one time. I think it was in the I think it was first half, second quarter, maybe the third quarter. You know, because Lamar is often on the move when he throws, he can miss people. But I don't know how anybody can watch Lamar Jackson and not think he is one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL. Just everybody's

got different gifts. Everybody's got different gifts in life. I don't care if you're a broadcaster, you work in a hospital, or a quarterback. The great ones all have different styles. And I just can't quit Baltimore owner, front office, coach, quarterback. They've added playmakers last couple of years. Yeah, I said this today on FS one. I think I feel like there's four teams that feel like they should be favorites to win the Super Bowl, Kansas City, Buffalo, Detroit, and Philly.

But I'm sorry Baltimore is It may be for a but it's when you watch Baltimore go on the road dominate the second half, playmakers all over the place. Dereck Henry icing it. Man, it's hard not to like that organization. There's just this is not a bad night for the Chargers. It's a night of growth for the Chargers. It shows you exactly what they need to beat the best teams. They have got to get two more playmakers. And for the record, moving off Keenan Allen was the right move

for them. He's perfect for Caleb Williams. He was excellent yesterday against Minnesota, but he was beat up and he was expensive. And they wanted to keep Khalil Mack Andbosa right. They wanted to keep their rush hands and so, and they're paying Herbert. I get it. You know, you're trying to create a physical culture. So Harbaugh and the front office guys are like, let's move off their receivers. And that's their weakness. So step two next year, I can guarantee you Quentin Johnson.

Speaker 1

That's not it.

Speaker 2

They're going after They're going to draft one, maybe two receivers, maybe get one in free agency. They'll probably, you know, look to get a little younger at running back. You know, you worry about JK. Dobbins. He's had a couple of big injuries. I like him a lot, but he's had a couple of big injuries. They'll probably go get another

tight end. You can see the plan. And with Jim Harbaugh, you got about two more drafts where he's going to have an advantage on the league because coaching at Michigan, they had looks like a very good draft. This year, he's probably got two more of those, maybe three, where he's going to have recruited a majority of the guys he's drafting. It's just a big advantage.

Speaker 1

You know.

Speaker 2

It's Bill Belichick's an all time great coach. Is he's spending Saturday watching college football for fourteen hours because Jim Harbaugh was spending three hundred days a year, three hundred and forty days a year recruiting all these kids. He's gonna draft last year in the next two to three years. So the Chargers are fine. They're just they're they're they're like the eighth grade version. Kansas City's a senior and then and Baltimore's like a junior. And it's like the

Chargers are in eighth grade. They haven't gotten into the high school hallway yet. They just this is step one. They've got moves to make, they'll make them. They're six to zero against losing teams, they're one and four against winning teams. They're Baltimore three years ago, two years ago. They just got add some pieces offensively, it feels inevitable. Philadelphia and Detroit in the NFC Championship. Those are stack rosters.

The Rams actually have a great coach, excellent quarterback, nice weapons, and a really strong defensive front. And it was completely worked tonight. Almost five hundred yards for the Eagles, two hundred and fifty five yards for Saquon Barkley. The Eagles offensive line and the Lions offensive line are so much better than the rest of the NFL. Four of the five Eagle o linemen I think could get honors, just

dominating performance. And again the Rams have some talented young guys up front, you know, and a lot of this Howie Roseman the GM. This league is front offices are so important. Teams like Cincinnati just don't make deals and so it's Joe Burr a couple of your receivers and they just a limited roster. Philadelphia is constantly trade deadline, usually not necessarily this year, but big players at the trade deadline, off season, free agency, Draft Day deals, and

you see the value of it. I mean, even without Devonte Smith at wide receiver because he's banged up, they lost Sleigh the corner during the game. In every unit, the Eagles have a great, great player. And you know I talked about this before the season. I said, the idea of letting your best player go the New York Giants to go to the Eagles is insane. I mean, can you imagine, you know, the I know it's not perfectly analogous, but the Chiefs, you know, letting the Chargers

have Mahomes in his prime. Now the Chargers have their own quarterback, but the best player on the New York Giants was allowed to go to their primary rival. Saquon Barkley. Think about this, has twelve touchdowns this year. The Giants have sixteen, last in the NFL. Saquon has ten plays this year of thirty plus yards. That's the same as the entire New York Giants offense. Giants let him walk. I think there's an argument MVP this year. Boy after tonight. I mean, Rookie of the Year has got to be

bow Knicks at least offensive rookie of the Year. I would not have a problem with Saquon Barkley being MVP. I would have no problem. I mean, the guy is he is separated from the league at running back again. McCaffrey last year fully healthy, but McCaffrey this year is not the same. Yeah, Saquon Barkley is. There's just nothing like him. I mean, every single carry looks like he's one broken tackle from going the distance, and he did it,

you know, twice the night. Saquon Barkley is on pace to set the NFL rushing record and scrimmage yards record. So if you're thinking to yourself, man, he's having like a incredible year. Yeah, the most incredible year ever potentially

for Saquon Barkley. It has like a KD to the Warriors feel, where you're looking at a team that's good enough to win the title and she's like, you know, we're just gonna We're gonna throw in this guy that is, you know, the best at his position, and he'll finally actually have teammates that can help him, and you know, a staff that can help him and a quarterback who's a threat to run as well, so you can't just

hone in on him. It's just insane. And by the way, the other player the Giants let go was a safety who now leads the NFL in interceptions. Got the Giants are so poorly run. But you know, Barkley, I've said before. I think the best running back I ever saw was Walter Payton. Barry Sanders probably so. Christian McCaffrey's dexterity and his ability to do so many things probably puts him third.

But McCaffrey does not look the same this year and instead Saquon Barkley was always an excellent player, but he is and there's no other way to say this. His ability to start and stop has improved. He's just faster and quicker this year. The NFL season's rolling along. The contenders are separating from the pack. The one thing that hasn't changed this season is Draft Kings sports book and official sports book partner of the NFL. Are friends at

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Speaker 3

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Speaker 2

Time for another Sunday Hour and a half pod with John Middlecoff, former NFL scout. I don't remember having a Sunday where I was on the wrong side of virtually everything except the Broncos game. What a crazy every favorite I like, every dog, I like, fail to cover every favorite I was gun shy on covered. Let's start with

Green Bay thirty eight, San Francisco ten. So, I mean, you knew it was trouble Bosa out brought pretty out Trent out, But as I was watching this, it was more than that, because, I mean, Green Bay gave them opportunities. I think you have to have a hard look in the mirror, and it's hard in the NFL when you still have really good people in the locker room. I think this franchise needs a complete reboot. If you look at the Detroits, the Green Bays, Buffalo, Kansas City, the

Chargers are up and coming. San Francisco is like an old fighter, John, They're like an old boxer. Last year, you know they were hanging on, had one last good fight. Stop drafting receivers, rebuild the O lines and D lines. Bosa's hurt, Kittle's hurt, McCaffrey's hurt. You know this organization, well, but listen, Green Bay was gonna win this game. You could tell two series in. I think San Francisco has to hyper aggressively reboot the franchise.

Speaker 1

Well, it's tough when you're paying all these guys all this money. They've recently best I think the best thing that could happen to them because they're not making the playoffs. Keep losing these games. I said, you know, today was not a great day for Dallas, Like they're not going to the playoffs. You win and ruined your draft position.

If you're the forty nine ers, you want to be drafting seventh, not fifteenth, right because we know quarterbacks usually go and that gives you an opportunity to get one of the best players on the board. They played Buffalo next week, that's a loss. You know the Rams. They still play the Cardinals, like they could lose these games, and I would imagine they do. So. I mean, I think you're looking at at at best a seven win team, and I think right now, you know, not winning maybe

one more game the rest of the season. This pretty thing was well reported today, like they are not even sure what's going on Bosa hurt one hip that he heard another Trent's just a weathered, you know, older player that this team, you know, what they need, They kind of need to get bounced in the first round or I mean, you know, not even make it to the first round of the playoffs and get extra time off and get to reset. It happened to the Warriors. Remember

they had twenty twenty. Twenty twenty was really rough couple of years. Then they were fresh than they won a championship.

Speaker 2

Well, remember the Niners' last Super Bowl loss went six and ten were injury ravaged.

Speaker 1

Yeah, so I to me, the best easiest way for them to get players they're not gonna have a lot of cap space because of all the big cap you know hits they have with players, is to have like the eighth pick in the draft, because it's not just the first round, it's every round, and they've proven to be able to draft for really well in the fourth, fifth, sixth round. When you're drafting in the top ten, you know, there aren't really many excuses to miss, like when they're

drafting in the late twenties. So I think the best case scenario roll out the team they're rolling out and they're gonna their schedule is hard. I mean they still play the Dolphins, who look good right now. Obviously they got the bills next week. They're just gonna naturally lose a lot of games, which I think is really gonna benefit them long term.

Speaker 2

Well, you know, it's interesting. I was watching Caleb Williams today, who was just he's such a talented guy. Boon Nicks looks fantastic. Jaden Daniels has hit the cliff Kingsbury wall, you know, around Thanksgiving. Even in college, his teams tended to swoon late. And I looked at rock Purty. They're gonna keep him right. I mean, you can't pay him fifty million, but they're gonna broker a deal here probably in the forties. Is that what you're thinking?

Speaker 1

They do? They have to, they call it. Why why are we always in such a rush? Like he's he's not struggling to put food on the table. He's making

millions of dollars off the field. It's an incredible spot for him with Kyle if you win six or seven games, and listen, this hasn't been his fault necessarily, But why are we in a rush to spend fifty million when clearly what there are four or five guys in the league that you feel really good about it, and then the next five guys making that much money or somewhat of a roller coaster. You know, I would have no problem giving him that. I don't know Kirk Cousins, Daniel

Jones eighty ninety and everyone's like, well, he'll never take that. Well, then we won't do a deal. You know, if he would have got me back to the NFC Championship game this year, you wouldn't have had a choice. But they're not sniffing the playoffs. He's injured. Now we're playing it out Like the problem with Dallas playing it out is you knew how it was going to play out. Why can't we just take a deep breath and see how see what happens?

Speaker 2

Ye?

Speaker 1

Where is he going? Yeah, well it's a better situation. Who's who's lighting up one? He's not a free agent, but who's lining up on the open market to give him, let's just say, one hundred and fifty million dollars a year? Who you big against? Yeah, so they regret the IU contract, they have to. If they could do that over again,

they would have traded him before the draft. I mean, there's not even so let's take a deep breath, let's just play it out, and that that's what I I would say most of my life, what up until the last four or five years, that's usually how business used to happen. Unless your name was like Peyton Manning or Ladanian Tomlinson or some like all time great player. Most players usually had to fight for their cash. And now, just because the league's flush with it, we just give

it away. And again I have no problem giving it to the elite guys. Hell, Trent Williams, you need a boost, I'll give you a boost. Rockberdy, like, let's just take a deep breath, everybody. That's been my stance all along is why can't What was the rush to pay Trevor Lawrence? Does any team regret a contract more than the Jags, Like five weeks into the contract at least two has proven like, but again, Tua's not making two hundred plus trial,

that's right. So and the party thing was being talked about, well, it's the Trevor Lawrence and it's like, well, if I'd give them one hundred and forty million dollars right now, but that's not what the ballpark that has been discussed.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean it's such a big decision. I'd peel off some of the players. I would have moved off Deebo last year. I wouldn't have paid Ayuk. I think they've been a little negligent on the offensive line. They've they've attacked the defensive line. I think they've been a bit negligent on the offensive line.

Speaker 1

I just don't not Colin. They're not negligent. They've been Kyle and the offensive line coach have been open about their philosophical belief of skill players are more important than offensive linemen. Oh, you can tell they believe in that zone scheme that I can take mainly average guys. Obviously Trent is their outlier. But how'd they get Trent. They got them for a third round pick right in the only reason he didn't go to Minnesota, who was offering way more as he refused to go there because he

wanted to play for his guy, Kyle. So they've openly said, yeah, we don't take offensive lineman if we believe a skill guy's on the board higher the football I was around growing up, you know, with coach Hill, who came from Belichick and then Andy Reid and Howie Roseman. They would laugh at that they would take offensive lineman in the first round and then they take him again in the second round.

Speaker 2

Bo Nix has completely surpassed Jaden Daniels for offensive Rookie of the Year. Like it's not club. I mean, he's the last six games. It's not close. Bo Nicks looks confident, accurate, poised, athletic. Jaden's lost his fastball. And so, you know, I talked to Steve kaim I said, you know, can you explain the Cliff Kingsbury College and professional swoon in the second

half of the season. And Steve just said, he's a very smart, creative guy who works in the summer to come in with new stuff and maybe the league catches up with him that he doesn't pivot to the second pitch after he's brought in new stuff. But Steve didn't really have an answer, But you know, he said, hard working, clever, smart, he does come in every year with new stuff. But I was sitting there watching that thing today and by the way, Washington almost pulled it off. But once again

Washington missed Pats. They missed a field golf special teams in this league are I don't remember a year that special teams decided more football games. They're just terrible. But I looked at this and I thought to myself today, if you could redraft all the quarterbacks, and you have to consider Sean Payton and the bow next deal, if you could redraft the quarterbacks, would you draft them differently? Forget the teams? Would you read draft them differently?

Speaker 1

Well, I think Caleb's at least quieted, and listen, I was starting to wonder, what the hell are we? Watching these last two weeks make you feel a lot better. I mean, today he made throws where you're like, that's what a number one overall pick looks like. No disputing. Here's where I will defend Jade and Daniels because today he was running around pretty well. I came into this season. I know you picked him to make the playoffs. I thought this was more like a six or seven win team.

It was going to be an impressive operation, but wins loss were not going to be what it looked like they were going to be three weeks ago. I don't think they're that talented Colin. I honestly, I don't think they're teams that good Yeah, Terry mclaurin's good. Their running backs getting banged up. Brian Robinson's a good player, but he was in and out. So if they're not running the ball well, And here's the one thing, and I always thought this about Chip Kelly, and you know, Mike

Leach never came to the NFL. But Cliff's a good example. These spread offenses. Right early on in the season, rapid fire defenses aren't as dialed. Take advantage of it. As the season goes on, weather changes a little bit, it gets a lot more physical. What Dallas happened today. Parsons is back now, like their defense is a little bit more I would say legitimate with him in the game, and they were just ready for a brawl like they got pride. I mean they got a lot high page and.

Speaker 2

Is accurate moves the ball for sure.

Speaker 1

And it was a physical game.

Speaker 2

Yeah.

Speaker 1

I think sometimes the more physical you are with more of the quote unquote spread offenses, you can shove them around a little bit. And I think that's really what's happened in my opinion. Now. You know once that I saw on the Denver game is Bonnix hasn't turned the ball over in fourteen quarters. One pass was on a hail Mary. But Jane Daniels have three picks today.

Speaker 2

Yeah.

Speaker 1

Right, So it's like you start turning the ball over, you start forcing things. Games are a little closer. The other thing is in the NFL, you know, regardless of records, I've always thought, you know, as the season goes on, like where do you get a lot of upsets in the NFL? Are division games in November and December with a good team versus bad team? We see it every year. Yea, like today, who in their right mind would have given

Dallas a shot? But you can tell halfway through You're like, this is a real game, this is gonna be tough.

Speaker 2

Well, the tight quarterback played great. Yeah, No, it's it's you. I think. When I looked at that game, I'm like, oh, Dallas just screwed up your drafts spot. Yeah. I think to your point, I think we have to take a deep breath. Washington replaced everybody they came in with a new quarterback and a new offense. In Cliff Kingsbury's history of starting the first six to eight weeks quickly, but then eventually regression to the meme. Whereas Denver is better

than people think. Denver's got some really good players. Denver has an elite offensive coach, Denver has a college quarterback with sixty one starts, and Denver's Cortland Sutton, who, like Terry McLaurin, is just a big target that's open all the time. And I want to pivot to that game because we haven't talked a lot of Denver on our Sunday podcast. So Denver beats the Raiders twenty nine nine teams the only.

Speaker 1

Game all day.

Speaker 2

If I would have bet every game, I think I would have gotten right. So bo Nick's his last eight games, John fifteen touchdowns, two picks, and a one oh four passer rating in those games, they're five and if a field goal is not blocked against the Chiefs, they're six and two. Like we have to acknowledge now Denver with in dead cap money, hell, that sacrificed draft capital. I think this is a good team. I watch them again. The Raiders don't have a lot of quarterback, but they've

got some talent. I think we have to be honest about this. I think Denver's pretty good football team.

Speaker 1

Well, Colin, I think we could be seven days away from them being officially, I guess unofficially a playoff team because they play Cleveland this week. In Miami, who's obviously got it together with Tua back, A lot of people think that they are alive and well, well, they play the Packers this week. So if Miami loses and they are then five and seven and Denver wins, they would be eight and five. Like, I have a hard time seeing Miami catch them. So this is a massive week.

Like I think Denver's in the playoffs. If they handle business this week and all of a sudden you start doing the math like they're getting a nine, no doubt, But I think they end up with ten, and that's they basically doubled their win total. Like this. This has been a huge year for Sean Payton. Honestly, it's been a win win for Russell Anshewan. Yes, some marriages break up, go other places, happy as hell with your separate significant others. That's how it's worked out here. So it just it

was never gonna work. You thought it. We all thought it. Anyone with a brain that knows these two personalities, even if you don't know him personally, you're like, this isn't gonna work. And they broke up and it's gone well for both Listen Right and Sean Payton. I think was pretty lucky that, you know, there was six quarterbacks in the you know, because a lot of them were going high.

It just happened to be a very unique draft because it's not like they were drafted fourth right, so he needed some of the stuff was out of his control, and it worked out perfectly. The type guy that he would like is the last guy off the board in the top fifteen. I mean, it was a historic draft, right, six guys going the top twelve thirteen picks. We might never see that again.

Speaker 2

And Denver has in nine of the last twelve games, and this is so big for rookie quarterback. They've held opponents under twenty So when bow nicks it maybe struggles today a little bit in a couple of drives. They're not giving up points.

Speaker 1

So their dbs A, their dbs are good. I mean every time I look up, obviously certains good. They have all these other guys. This is why vance Joseph, which Shawn deserves credit for, because you give up seventy points in a game. I would have been like, Shawn, you might have to fire this guy. By mid season, stick it out by the end of the year. Last year, they're playing good defense. This year, I think that has

to be the most surprised unit of the league. They feel just on the it test, one of the best defenses in the league. I know Gardner Minshew today, but the score was a little closer. This guy never once crossed my mind that the Raiders were gonna win that game today.

Speaker 2

No, but they've been doing this now for two months. I mean, go to the Kansas City game. They outplayed the Kansas City Chiefs, and so on the road.

Speaker 1

That's where I think. You know, depending on how this Denver, more than likely it would probably be the seven seed. Baltimore. Yeah, you know, they already has four losses. But if you're telling me two of the three wild cards are Denver and the Chargers, Like anytime you play your wild card weekend, you're playing an excellent defense, like you could lose. You know, this is not a three to seven game series. All of a sudden, you have a shitty half, You're down

fourteen to three in the third quarter. We've seen this every year. So you got two teams separate from obviously Herbert's you know, an elite player. But even with a rookie quarterback. We have seen rookie quarterbacks have success in the PLAYFF because they don't have to do that much. And that's kind of you know, bo Nicks, as long as he didn't turn the ball over and their defense played a high level game, why couldn't they win it

seventeen to fourteen or fifteen to thirteen. They're very comfortable playing that way.

Speaker 2

Think about this, and I watched them today. Sean Payton does such a good job of two things. Defining. He gives bo Nix about eight layups. He gives them a lot of easy stuff. And then bow Knicks deserves credit because he is constantly seeking Courtland Sun and Courtland Sutton is a basketball with a helmet. I mean that he's big in the corner, Jesus big, long athletic. I've always liked Courtland Sutton so and mims Is it can be a burner. I like their backs. But you can see

that he gets Bownicks easy stuff. And then bow Bow like Russell does with George Pickens, Bow just attacks Cortland Sutton. But take out Andy Reid. Just take Andy Reid out. Belichick's now not coaching. On any given Sunday, I'd argue Sean Payton's as good as coach as the league has. I absolutely believe that. I think Andy Reid's the best, maybe arguably ever. But now that Belichick's out take out Andy Reid, he can go toe to toe. I mean, I love Sean McVay. They've had some bad offensive halves

when people are healthy. So I think a lot of this is, you know, it's just funny because Shawn's done things to alienate people. He's outspoken. Remember he took a shot at the Jets. He was right by the way. You know, he took a shot at Nat Hackett. He was right by the way. But you know, when you lead with your chin, you offend a lot of people. You cannot watch Denver and not see the coaching. It's it's I mean to me, if you gave Coach of the Year today, I don't know how you'd I don't

know who you'd pick. I think Sean Payton's now after that Tomlin time out mess, clock management mess. I think I give it to Sean Payton.

Speaker 1

You know, I think it's the one award that, honestly, as time goes on, is irrelevant, right, Like Belichick, Andy Reed, they don't even have that many. Andy Reid doesn't have one. As a cancy chiefs head coach like Jim Harbaugh took over a team that won five games, They're probably gonna win eleven or twelve. And I think the way you just describe Sean, I think Jim is definitely mellowed out in his older age, but he was a lot like that early on in Michigan and definitely with San Francisco

and both I mean, look at those two guys. If you would have said that the Chargers in Denver, whatever the odds, if you would have parlayed those two teams to make the playoffs, Colin, they might make the playoff. They might be resting starters by the last week of season. And it's not a coincidence that those guys. Here's the other thing, and Sean, once he hired Dennis Allen, their defense was excellent the last three or four years with

the Saints. Jim, both offensive guys, former quarterbacks value defense and will pay for it and invest in it. And that really matters. And I don't think it's shocking. And this is why you're watching the Raiders today. You're like, can you imagine being the redhead stepchild of your division when you're in that you know, with those three coaches, Like, what do you even do? Like? You better hope Belichick picks up your call this offseason, because if he doesn't, you got no shot.

Speaker 2

I watched Bryce Young today, who's arguably the best quarterback ever in Southern California high school history, who was dominant in college. I ran into his high school coach the other night at Modern Day, a legend who's retired, and I said, best player you ever had? You know, first second name out was Bryce Young. He's like, he's just a remarkable player, great kid. I don't think Caroline is going to draft a quarterback. I think the class is two weak. I think they think Bryce is better than

anybody outside of Shador Sanders. I think Caroline is going to give Bryce Young another year. What's say you?

Speaker 1

Yeah? I would say he's done a lot like his version of what Caleb has done these last couple of weeks. Yep, you know, over the last three games for him, he's looked like a real player. Now, if you could do it all over again, would you have mortgaged what you did to get him. I mean I think probably not, I would not, but he has been more than respectable these last three weeks. And he you know, confidence is

a powerful thing for young players. Listen, He's not he's a little small, not a great athlete, but he does have a natural feel for the position. And that's what was so head scratching when they essentially had to bench him, is he was inaccurate. He was making awful decisions. He just looked lost and maybe sometimes like you just take a reset. Listen, I think Anthony Richardson, even today they kind of got just has looked a lot better. I thought he looked a lot better today. Take a deep breath.

I don't know if Bryce needed to be like humbled like Anthony Richardson, but he definitely, like just take a step back was probably healthy for him, and he looks like a real NFL quarterback. Now, their team a lot of question marks. Is their coaching staff good enough? Is their talent long way to go? But I'm with you, like, what are you gonna draft cam Ward or Quinn?

Speaker 2

You were so well the same thing in Tennessee. They beat the Texans today and so that's I mean, this is not a game that's riveting. But the Titans thirty two, Texans twenty seven. So listen, the last six games, c J. Stroud is really struggling. They went and got Stefan Diggs should have probably addressed the interior line. C J. Stroud is hurrying everything. He is struggling. He has a seventy four passer rating in his last six games. He is

really struggling. But I watched Will Levis today and my take his with Bryce Young and Will Levis, I'm just keeping them. I'm giving him another year. I mean, hell, the Giants paid Daniel Jones. I don't think Daniel's as natural as Bryce Young. I don't think he's as I don't think he has the arm of Will Levis. And my take watching Will Levis today the last two weeks, I'm kind of like, yeah, they got boat raced by Detroit.

They don't have the same level of players. But I watched Will Levis and Bryce Young and my take is we like CJ. Scroud and we see what he's going through, and Houston's got better players than the Titans. I thought Will Levis today bought himself absolutely another year. I mean, you can go get Sam Darnold in the market. I think they're just gonna.

Speaker 1

Stick with him. Yeah, I mean, you know, Will did give you the one pick six. No, he he did make some fantastic throws down the field. Something is really off with Houston. I mean, they have not looked good in a way, even in their wins. It's just they looked a lot different. Maybe was their schedule last year. Obviously, you know, protecting CJ has been a problem, but they look they look like a lock to be a one

and done. You know, if you tell me they're playing the Chargers or the Race, even in the first round, the way they're playing, I'd say Cyanarah. But I hear you, like, this is this league's hard, and I think sometimes you know, these teams get so caught up on these shiny targets. It's like, let's use Digs for an example. So you're telling me the Bills, and listen, I know people with the Texans, they like Digs. But even like he hasn't been a personal personality problem. But let's just talk about

the player standpoint. The Bills, who have been one of the best operations in the league minus like the Chiefs for the last four years, are completely out on the guy. You already have Nico Collins and Tank Dell, who are clearly a good young nucleus. With Schultz, you're gonna add a running back, Like your offense is not lin of scrimmage, line of scrimmage, line of scrimmage, Yet you go do that, Like, I think that's one where you're like, we didn't need

to do that. That's right, but that doesn't make sense. We should have been extra aggressive for another guard, for another center, for another d tackle. That's where we're gonna separate ourself from the line of scrimmage. They felt like they wanted to go more and be this spreaded around team, and that's kind of what they look like now. They're just kind of soft. Yeah, and their offense gets shoved around today. I mean, one thing the Titans have had

all year long is their defense is pretty good. Yes, you remove that game against the Lions where they scored seventy five points, Like, the Titans defense has not been the problem. And now Will Levis, I think statistics over the last couple weeks have been a lot better on what have they been, They've been a lot more competitive.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean, I think you have to strongly consider this quarterback class where Schner Sanders is the best product project prospect. But it's not great. I mean, he's got there's some ego, there's some emotion he holds on.

Speaker 1

I don't think he would have gone if you put him in this last draft. Yeah, he doesn't go ahead of Kleb. No, he does not. Jayden's more physically gifted. I think there's I would say, above a fifty percent chance that they still would go with Drake May in New England, bigger arm, cold weather like that factors in, so he wouldn't have even potentially gone definitely in the top two, but probably in the top three of this

last quarterback class. That's not even a shock. Drake May was Nick Saven tried to give him five million dollars the previous year. Yeah, so I think sometimes we act like Drake May was just this overdrafted scrub and they got their butt kicked today. But he was. He's a legitimate prospect coming out of college.

Speaker 2

Well, and I think Sean Payton identified very early bo Nix was his Drew Brees. So Shaduur is benefiting greatly. Cam Ward is a lot of backyard football, a very edgy personality, and I'll just I'll leave it at that. He's a very edgy personality, not for everybody. Jalen Milroll is not very fluid. Big strong kid, great parents, wonderful kid, completely coachable. He's Anthony Richardson but better at this point. But he's not a natural, Like he can make great throws,

but he doesn't. He doesn't feel like he's played enough quarterback, like he needs a lot of work. So my take is, if I got Will Levis and I look at it and I think, well, maybe Will's not shaduor Sanders. But if I if I've got five wins and I'm drafted nine, I'm not moving up for Shador Sanders. Im I'm just staying with Will Levis for a year. All Right. It is time for another edition, the Thanksgiving Edition. It's a tasty one. Sharper Square Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites.

All odds provided by DraftKings. So this line I didn't understand. There's a couple of lines this week I didn't quite get. So the Steelers are a much better football operation than Joe Burrow and the Bengals. And I've talked about this before. The Bengals moved off Joe Mixon and defensive players before they paid T Higgins and Jamar Chase. There's just a cheap franchise. Pittsburgh awful. Loss is going to be feisty.

Pittsburgh is a dog is great. Burrow's wonderful, but not when he's sitting on the bench watching a run game, dominate time of possession. I like the Steelers as a dog plus three, it's a much better team. Sharpe square.

Speaker 4

Yeah, of course, it's the sharp play. It makes no sense that the number is even close to three.

Speaker 2

I don't get it.

Speaker 4

It's been bouncing around. It opened to two and a half, got that up to three, came back to two and a half. Because the wise guys know Mike Tomlin as a dog sixty two percent on the road, he is the best coach as a dog this generation. Twenty years. He is sixty two percent as a dog in the division on the road, sixty four percent when the spread is between one and three. I do believe that a lot of people are just enamored with how Joe Burrow has been playing.

Speaker 2

It's pretty year.

Speaker 4

He's putting up pinball numbers, right, But this is a terrible defense and while they've been off for two weeks, the Steelers have been off for ten days, and it's a raw, raw Mike Tomlin spot. He makes these guys believe, and there's still in a position where they can win that division, so you're not going to want to lose an in division game. I bet the Steelers on the money line.

Speaker 2

Another dog I like is Arizona plus three and a half. The Vikings so off of by Arizona was a mess, and a lot of it was Seattle got a consistent pass rush. I don't think Minnesota's pass rush will be that formidable. I also think Arizona, when they can run the ball, is a really really effective team. I think they'll have a better chance to run the ball here. Arizona's inconsistent, but this is a team that has for

the last five weeks. I mean, they went to Miami in one and they went to Santa Clair in one. I think their personnels better than people think. They have elite players, Budda Baker's elite, Connor's elite. Mcgride is a tremendous tight end, Kyler Murray's elite. They don't have big names on the interior d line, but they play well, they play above their weight. So I just think I think this is a close game. Minnesota doesn't really bury people. Go look at the Jacksonville game, Go look at the

Chicago game. They're not Philadelphia. They don't blow over you. They make mistakes, they're missing their great left tackle. They're a good team, they're not special. They're well coached with some nice playmakers. But you watch the Minnesota game, that's a go either way football game. It doesn't look like either team is significantly more talented and one is in turmoil, and you're like, I don't know, they kind of look the same. I'm taking the three and a half with Arizona Sharper square.

Speaker 1

Eh.

Speaker 4

It's kind of an is ish, like there's no consensus. It's not a lot of interest, to be honest, from the wise guys. There's some games on the board that the wise guys have planted a flag in the sand on. This is not one of them. A lot of the wise guys liked Arizona last week. They feel a little burned by what happened in Seattle. You still don't know, we said last week. They put all their cards on the table right pun intended, and they come off the

buy Kyler kind of looks disinterested. So what are you going to be getting the second week going against Minnesota which still has a lot to lose, And you're right, they gave it away against the Bears, like the Bears should not even have been close to turning that game into an overtime game, so that they come out with a little more intensity this week. It's just a hard one and handicap. I think I think the line is kind of right exactly where it is.

Speaker 2

Okay, a favorite I like Buffalo at home minus seven, well rested and waiting for a Niners team. Bosa didn't practice, Trent Williams didn't practice. I'm not sure if that locker room. I mean, if Bosa doesn't play, that's a very average D line. Buffalo's rested, they're healthy. You know, they're a team that they're playing for the number one seed here. And by the way, Alan the backup for San Francisco,

that's not gonna work. That's just not good enough. And brock Prudy, who he never has a great arm, is now dealing with a shoulder issue. Again, this is not a guy with a whip to begin with. This is the rare. I think the Niners are living off reputation. I just don't think they're a very special football team. Five and seven in their last twelve, I'm gonna lay the seven. I like Buffalo Sharper square sure.

Speaker 4

I mean the wise guys had been betting Buffalo. It opened at six and a half, it's got up to seven. I think the real question why it sort of hasn't exploded, And we saw this last week with the Packers, is brock Purty. What's his status gonna be? So no one's going to overinvest until they get a real sense of what whether or not he's going to be playing. I agree with you about Nick Bosa. If you watch that game against the Seahawks, he was the difference when he

was playing, they were in control of that game. Gino Smith was harassed, he was making bad decisions and bad throws when he was no longer playing. In that game, Geno Smith goes on a drive in the final two minutes that wins in the game, and now all of a sudden, it's propelling Saddle into Seattle and everyone thinking they're a super special team and they could potentially win the NFC West. Nick Boson not being there and Trent Williams are those are massive, massive missing pieces.

Speaker 2

I like the Titans plus five and a half at the Commanders. I think Cliff Kingsbury does this single guy a lot of time in the summer, plays some golf and comes up with a new offense, and I think it fools people, and then all of a sudden, about mid October to late October, if you look at his history in college or pro football, people catch up. And then you're left with a September offense in November. And I just don't think the Commanders. I mean Jesus, It's

like the Cowboys had the Commander's playbook. They would flush Daniels out of the pocket and there were guys just waiting for him. And I think Tennessee is really good upfront, defensively disruptive. I think Will Levis still makes He's got that Will Levis Carson Wentz reckless gene. But you know what, I think he's played himself into another year starting and I think you can sense it. I think he doesn't

feel as apprehensive. I just don't. I'm not giving up five and a half points for anybody against the Commanders. I think they're just right now. An average roster. They have laid out their cards, everybody's seen them. I'm taking the five and a half. I think Tennessee's a tough, physical team. Is Houston found out Sharper square.

Speaker 4

Yeah, you nail that.

Speaker 1

It's totally sharp.

Speaker 4

The interesting thing here is the line moved from six and a half to six to five and a half early in the week, and for what we're talking about here, early in the week was really Monday. Yeah, and that was a consensus professional move. I bet it at five and a half. It moved up a little bit to six six and a half again, and now it's come back down. I couldn't agree with you more. The cliff,

the cliff Kingsbury cliff mid season is real. Statistically, right, Texas Tech they would get to the middle point of the year, they would lose. Cardinals they would get to the middle point of the year, they would lose. If

you unpack that, it's somewhat circumstantial, right. You could look at Texas Tech and be like, Okay, they play Patsy's in the beginning of the year, they get into the conference, the schedule gets hush right, right, and the Cardinals a couple of times he had Kyler Murray injured, didn't have the full scope of his talent, and all of a sudden the team isn't as good. But it's happening again. It's happening this time because Jade Daniels is injured and

has been playing injured. And after that rocket start the first four weeks of the year, he's barely completing seventy percent of his passes after a start with he was completing eighty percent. Right, you look at the flip side, and yes, Tennessee they have a very good defense. They've been playing better. Last week they gave up eight sacks and Will Levis had a pick six, and they still beat Texans, who have a better quarterback than the Washington Commanders.

And I do think that this is going to be the worst defense Will Levis has faced this season. And he has an opportunity here to be pressured a little bit less and get the ball, push the ball downfield, which is what he's really good at, and that's when he's most comfortable. So well as guys are with you, that's a sharp play.

Speaker 2

I don't know how many people will watch this. I like the Texans minus four at the Jags I don't know what the Jags are playing for. I think that's a kind of a ugly, toxic locker room where people have bailed. I think the Texans off one of their worst performances of the year. It means a lot. They're playing for more. They're pissed off. They have an issue with protection guard center guard. But they've got just simply better players playing for more, and frankly, a better quarterback.

If Trevor Lawrence plays, he's not close to one hundred percent. I think they have a coaching advantage, a coordinating advantage. This feels like my second favorite bet of the week. I'm going to take the Texans minus four at the Jag Sharper square.

Speaker 4

Well, I wish you hadn't said it was your second favorite favorite. The wise guys are all over the Jags in this game. They love the Jags. They've moved from five to four and a half to four.

Speaker 1

Wow.

Speaker 4

Yeah, it's it's an interesting one for me personally. I agree with you, it's a pass. I think the wise guys are looking at CJ. Stroud and thinking he's average. It's not that he's not progressing, it's that he's the protection's terrible, Like, well, he's playing like a normal quarterback right, and like his interception percentage was so low last year that it doubles this year, and all of a sudden it's at league average and everyone thinks, oh my god,

there's something wrong with him. They're playing different defenses again, it's him, So his coverage is different, and he hasn't had his best players so and and the offensive line protection is terrible, truly terrible.

Speaker 2

You can tell he's letting go every thing a second early everything.

Speaker 4

Yeah, and he's also a gunslinger, right, Like he likes to let it go. He's not going to stop being aggressive. As he said last week, you got to shoot your shot. So I think that the wise guys are looking at this and saying division game on the road, JAG's last chance to make a stand. If Trevor Lawrence is playing, the sort of betting on the opportunity that he might be playing, and they thought the number was a little bit too high, so they're taking a piece of that while they can.

Speaker 2

I always have a gam every week. I want your expertise. So I think the Chargers are a better team than the Falcons, But I also think the Falcons are arrested. They're at home, and I think they're more explosive offensively. I feel like with the Chargers, and I've seen this now a couple of times this year, because they don't have playmakers. Quentin Johnson officially can't catch that. They score basically on big drives, nine play drives, ten play drives,

eleven play drives. Well, you're asking for perfect football. You know Philadelphia can have penalties. Saquon Barkley up off a fifty seven yard er. AJ Brown over the top. You need freebies. You can't live on twelve play drives. And that's what the Chargers have to do. And the middle of their interior of their own line isn't good enough, so they get holding calls. They don't have receivers that separate. I'm guessing the Sharps like Atlanta plus one at home.

Speaker 4

Back and forth. The line actually moved up from one and a half to to two and a half. And I think that the sentiment is that people are actually impressed with the Chargers and that the difference in that game against the Ravens was JK. Dobbins leaving the game and it completely changed the tenor. And you're right about the offensive line, especially the interior the offensive line. That's where the Ravens were getting pressure. The Falcons can't get pressure.

They're not the Ravens. They really can't get any pressure at all, and so that's not expected to be factor for the Chargers. I will tell you it's it's sort of and not. A line has come back down, which tells you that the wise guys felt the line had gotten too high, and there's been some buyback. And by the way, this is a very common thing. There are a lot of professional betters who might like the Falcons and want the line to be a little bit different.

So early in the week, what do they do. They bet on the Chargers, say five grand, ten grand whatever, move the line up, and then when it gets to a certain point, they bet fifty grand, sixty grand on the Falcons. Right, So they're paying a little bit of a premium to get the line to move so they can get better price on the team they really want. That could have happened this week.

Speaker 1

I don't know.

Speaker 4

I haven't heard that, but it's possible. So there's no it's a long way of saying there's no real consensus here on what this game should.

Speaker 2

Be okay, Chad, And there's always one that I missed. Seahawks at the Jets is interesting to me. I kind of like Kansas City, big favorite over the Raiders. I'll stay away. What's the one I missed?

Speaker 4

Well, look the wise guys like the Jets. I'm sorry to say. It's so interesting because on one New York team, you've got locker room turmoil, you've got quarterback intrigue, you've got players who are frustrated with the coaching. You've got an owner who is incredibly frustrated with how the personnel has sort of fleshed out. And then you've got another New York team where the owner is basically entering his Montgomery Burns phase. Right, he is taking a helicopter, landing

it on the field. The GM is standing next to a coach when the helicopter lands and said, if I don't come back, it's been a pleasure to serve with you. And then the GM actually gets fired. And this is after the coach. The owner had fired the coach without telling anybody, and after the owner had traded for a receiver without telling anybody, and openly opine should we be bencing Annon Rodgers? And yet the wise guys, they've been betting the Giants, but they like the Jets a lot

more against Seattle. I think part of it is like, this is the time to grab a number that is overinflated on Seattle as much as anything else. So they're on that. The wise guys. Of course they're going to be on the Raiders. It's not even it's not even a question. They were on the Raiders when the line was at thirteen and a half thirteen, twelve and a half twelve. It got that back up by the public

because Aidan O'Connell was announced as the quarterback. The wise guys are now just going to wait see how much more they can, how much of a better price they can get between now and kickoff on Friday. They're gonna buy the Raiders. One team that I asked you to look at last week, Carolina.

Speaker 2

Panthers work nine. What's the line?

Speaker 4

The line is six, So the Carolina they hosted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Speaker 2

So the Carolina Panthers at home plus six against Tampa Bay. Yes, yes, well I mean Tampa. The wise guys like it. I don't say, well, Baker played perfect, So they come back down to Earth. I'll be honest with you. I think both Will Levis and Bryce Young for Tennessee and Carolina respectively, in a weak college quarterback draft class, have extended their starting franchise career one more year. I think Bryce Young and Will Levis looked like, now, let's give them another year.

Speaker 4

I think that's one hundred percent accurate, which is what Bryce Young has been the past few games. And so you know in that Kansas City game, he was throwing darts, yeah, and keeping them in the game, and every time you looked up, they were driving. And the Bucks defense it's not as good as Kansas City's. They're playing at home. Six points in the division is a ton. You're getting an inflation on the line because of what the Bucks just did to the Giants. So the wise guys like

the Panthers. Look, I love the Panthers to start the year, and they burn me consecutive weeks. So I sort of stayed away from them and even publicly talking about them. I went back on them big last week, and I was glad that I did. I'm a little anxious going back to the Well and the Panthers again, but I have been the Panthers at plus six. I just feel like it's still.

Speaker 1

A right spot.

Speaker 4

It's going to change, but I'm hoping that it doesn't this week.

Speaker 2

So I don't throw your curves, but I want to talk USC Notre Dame. Notre Dame getting plus seven and a half so early in the week. I like Notre Dame. Riley Leonard has cleaned up his game, no turnovers. They are a team that runs the football. USC not great defending the run, and I think they're well coached. I like their culture. USC is playing a quarterback who started the year on the bench, completes about fifty five percent of his throws. Much looser and mistake prone than Miller Moss,

but more athletic. They can move the pocket, which Lincoln Riley historically likes. USC's got some really nice perimeter weapons. They're at home, no pressure, I mean, I mean, and I think USC. They beat LSU, they beat UCLA, and they had Penn State beat They're not bad. Every USC game looks the exact same. It's close, they lead in the fourth, then they even lose to Maryland. So my take is I've gone back and said, you know what, they're gonna lose, But I'm taking the hook. I'm taking

USC plus seven and a half. What are the sharp saying on that?

Speaker 4

Yeah, if you're getting the hook at home, you should be taking it. That's sort of the tipping point in a game like this. The challenge with everything you've said is the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame is now fifth in the College Football Playoff rankings. Every game, every win, every margin of victory, every op dick is going to

matter going forward. And I know, like they're locked in with Oregon and Penn State and Ohio State and Texas, like those are the teams that the College Football Playoff is really thinking about as one through four. But Notre Dame is still playing for something that matters in terms of positioning with the people with the teams behind them. So that's what scares me a little bit about this

game and USC. You're not wrong, but some of these games you're talking about they were earlier in the year and they were a different team, and there's been a lot of turmoil with that organization the past month, between the changing and the quarterbacks, between the fines, you know, people, the recruits who have been decommitting and going to other places. You know that USC team and culture much better than

I do. But that feels like an organization where they need this to be a competitive game in a different way than Notre Dame does. And Notre Dame is playing for something right now that feels much much bigger to me than what USC is playing for. I'm waffling here. You take the hook, but it's not a game I want any piece.

Speaker 2

Of all right, that's fair. Yeah, it's funny about this transfer portal. Colorado, LSU, and USC have used it a lot, and all three of them the season's always end disappointing. Why because, in my opinion, this is one of my theories that you can use the transfer portal to plug holes. It's very hard to build a culture with all the interlopers and newcomers, and so what happens over the course of a season at USC, LSU, and Colorado when you

face adversity is when you need a great culture. And they have better talent, but they don't have great cultures. They don't have guys that have been together for four years since high school, and so LSU, Colorado USC heavy transfer portal, whereas a Notre Dame very little transfer portal, great culture with Marcus Freeman, they had an early loss that was awful. They've gotten stronger because their culture is better.

So you look at these teams that had early setbacks, and setbacks can splinter locker rooms, and these heavy transfer portal teams, they all get bad at the end of the season. A lot of people start going their own way. The nil guys are looking at the pros so Ole Miss, by the way, everybody loves Old Miss. Yeah, what happens against an inferior Florida team they don't play well. Guys now are going to start heading in their own directions. So that's what I think I've found from the transfer portal.

I can think two things. I like it, but I wouldn't want to build around it. It's important, but I don't want it to be my primary infrastructure.

Speaker 4

I'm going to give you an example that supports both sides of your theory. Indiana Hoosiers, who I went to Indiana. Yeah, I love him. I've been so excited for this team all year. Obviously, heavy Portalnetti, they used the transfer portal heavily, But what they did was they basically took the entire team from James Madison and plugged them in. So yeah,

it worked for them. But the reason it worked for them is because they maintained a culture that existed with Kurt Signetti from where he was before and then brought it to Bloomington. And that's translated in a very successful way. And what's more interesting to me also about this is I think there is an opportunity for teams like Indiana, who have been middling teams to get the fourth fifth

year seniors who want to keep playing college football. They might not be great NFL players, but they're incredibly effective, productive, workman like college football players, and they're adults. So instead of the sophomore five star who's not getting any playing time in his transferring from Texas to Ole Miss, they're getting the fourth year mac quarterback who was really good and is time to see if he can stretch his

game to the next level. And he's an adult, and that's just a different kind of player in college football. I'm not saying now Indiana has a ceiling on this. We saw it against Ohio State. You got to get athletes and people on the edge and all that kind of stuff. But I think you can build a really successful program through the portal if you're getting guys who are just great college football players and not necessarily the highest ceiling athletes.

Speaker 1

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