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Lebron James has won nine straight Do or Die games, either a playing game or a game seven if you count the in season tournament, it's like he's won twelve straight or thirteen straight. I said very early in the season because of the Lakers eight and their primary playmakers, Lebron, who's very old, that if it was the NCAA tournament, I think the Lakers would get to the championship game and then lose to Denver or a Boston. But in a one game setting. This is why the NBA seven
game first round series is ridiculous. It punishes aging legends, which are always the ratings drivers for the NBA. I mean, the reason Caitlin Clark one of the reasons she got numbers. This was a rematch. She went into the tournament. We knew the story. They lost last year. Here they come back, they face South Carolina. I mean, ninety percent of Hollywood money is Remax, right, So it's these aging stars, these steps and these Lebron's Kevin Durantz. They drive the ratings
in the NBA. So why punish them with seven game first round series with no urgency. So the Lakers in the in season tournament won in their playing games with Lebron. They're three to nine playing games with Lebron, and they've won again nine straight do or die games with Lebron. And the Lakers did what they do. They got to the free throw line a lot, and they hit their free throws. By the way Sacramento hit their free throws, Lakers hit their free throws. And you're watching in these games,
these playoff games games. Is the n NBA pretty clearly tweaked. And I don't mind him doing this at all. During the regular season, the NBA said, hey, let's let him play. Let's speed the pace of play up, fewer whistles. That is a huge benefit to veteran teams. That does not benefit OKC, That will not benefit young teams that will benefit the older teams. Miami in the East will probably benefit from that. Boston's been around will benefit the Lakers
will benefit. Okac won't so the Lakers. I think the Lakers match up pretty well with the Nuggets in terms of size. The difference is the fourth best player on any given night for the Denver Nuggets is Michael Porter, who is a high school prodigy who can absolutely knock down twenty eight points on any given night. Now he has championship experience, and I think that's a real thing. I think once you win the championship. Every time I watch Denver in a big TV game and it was close,
they just found ways to win. And I saw about a week ago they played the te Wolves close game, just found a way to win. So it's that confidence of a championship team. I think they have the best starting five along with Boston in the NBA. And there are players on the Lakers that can disappear at times. I think Ruey's talented, he can disappear. Anthony Davis can be hot and cold offensively Lebron depending on if his
three point shot is effective. D Lo as a playoff performer has been at times awful last year at times semi effective. I kind of know what I'm getting with Denver with the Lakers. It's a lot of finger crossing with DeAngelo Russell and Anthony Davis two out of three playoff games will give you a really nice offensive effort, but he can manage at times too. So I just I don't see the Lakers beating Denver four times. I think they'll beat him in a game, maybe they beat
him twice. They can physically match up. You know, Jokich does not have a lot of off nights and Jamal Murray doesn't have a lot of off nights, and Gordon brings that defense virtually every game. Michael Porter can be a bit hot and cold. But you know, Denver's a champion for a reason. And my guess is they'll probably beat the Lakers in five, perhaps six, but you'll feel late in these games. That's where you'll see the difference.
Where Yokich is younger than Lebron and Jamal Murray offensively is more consistent than Anthony Davis, and ad gives Jokic about as much trouble as you can possibly give him and he still gets thirty points. So I just feel the consistency the championship experience. Denver is going to be an even tougher out this year, and I imagine they extinguish the Lakers in about five or six. The games will be close, the Lakers do match up with them
all right. Switching it up for the next couple of weeks from John Middelkoff to Hoops Tonight lead guy Jason Timpf, who has We're so proud of Jason because Noli does kick ass and work his butt off. But when we landed him, we thought he was really good and we couldn't believe he didn't have a larger audience. Soon enough, he's got a larger audience that he does a great job. Has grown a wicked mustache since he's been at the volume, as well, a confidence mustache. One of the I pushed
back a lot on this, and I've come around. If I had an MVP vote, Jalen Brunson gets consideration, Jokic could be the favorite. But I was thinking about this watching him this past week because I already started zoning in to all the top teams on LUCA, so statistically insane could be your MVP, arguably of all the fifty plus win teams, he has the weakest roster. He solved, at least for the time being, the Kyrie issue and and the Mavericks of the hottest team in the league
at the most significant time of the league. Right. We know the playoffs mean, but the last fifteen games of the regular season, you really you can feel who's playing uphill and who's playing downhill. If you had an if I had an MVP vote, I think I would think long and hard about Luca. Let's start with that. To you, who's the regular season MVP.
Well, to your point about getting hot at the right time of the year. Almost everybody I talk to that I trust about basketball, when you talk to them about their top contenders, everyone's got or Denver, Boston one, two, and then the consensus is Dallas at three. That's the type of foothold they've gained around the league. Now they're respected as a team that is considered a legitimate chance
to win the title. And you're right, I think they do have the most limited supporting cast of the group of teams that we kind of consider seriously at the top of the league. Now, the thing MVP's tricky because typically there's a large gap in the standings between Dallas and Denver. It's like six games if I remember correctly.
Typically when you see a team that's not in that like super high end record area of the league, like fifty five plus wins, typically it's because there's not a traditional MVP candidate there for some reason, like it's a Jason Tatum that's leading one team, or it's a you know, like there's usually a limitation there, and so then you look below that and you find your guy who's leading a limited squad, whether it's a Russell Westbrooker, it's a
or it's a Luka Doncic. In a case like this, the thing is is like as much as Lucas had to deal with Jamal Murray's missed more than a fourth of the season, Yea and Nikole Yoka just kept them right in the mix there. Jokic in just about every major national TV game this year as clearly demonstrated he's still the best player in the league. So for me, like, even though I view Lou, I put him second, I
put Luca second. I just can't justify the gap in the standings and the fact that I think Jokic is playing at a similar level, if not a touch higher anyway. But I think Luca has a legitimate case, and I think you got to throw Shay in there too. I think Shaye is a legitimate case as well. But I think Lucas gonna win it, and I think he deserves it. Yeah, and actually I mean, excuse me.
Yeah, I think Lucas played better defense this year. If you look at the efficiency numbers on defense his steals, you know, he's never going to be a really great, twitchy defender. And I would argue this, I don't need him to be. Listen, bro give me thirty three a night with your offensive efficiency. You know, like Steph Curry, we'll cover you somewhere. We'll have a room protector. I don't need Luca to be a great defender. You know, when you have Giannis's athletic ability and size, then you're
kind of demanding. I need the effort. I will say this about Luca that I don't know in my life. It took Kobe a few years that he was a more efficient scorer. It was a wild He was like Josh Allen is a rookie quarterback. You knew it was there, but it was wild. I don't know in my lifetime if anybody has ever walked into this league and thirty games into it, you said to yourself, and I'm maybe maybe it was Kareem. This is before my time, right,
I don't remember when he broke in with Milwaukee. I didn't watch sports till like seventy two, seventy three, seventy one the Bucks won the title. I don't know if I've ever seen a player walk in and by the All Star break of the first year, I remember saying, like, is he gonna be a top five scorer? Ever? Like he reminds me like, obviously he's not highly vertical. I don't know if he I'm talking Jordan Lebron everybody is
he maybe the greatest score, the most unstoppable score. He gets any shot he wants every time down the floor. It's almost his girth, his lack. You know, he's not d Wade. When you look at him, he's at times puffy. I don't know how to describe him. He is just an automatic bucket, always gets it shots. I don't even know what his comp is.
What is his comp so honestly, like when it comes to his size, the guy he reminds me, the most of is Lebron and I know that they don't have a ton of similarities in their actual play style, but the main thing is that this is actually something we're going to talk about when we get to the Lakers. But like when you try to ball pressure big players,
that plays right into their advantage. Like if you get physical with me and I have a size advantage on you, I can pivot, use angles to go right around you because I'm just bigger and I'm stronger, and so a lot of times, like if you ball pressure Luca, he's just going right around you and getting to the basket. And so, really, what's kind of taking his game to the next level this year is he used to be
kind of like a mediocre pull up three point shooter. Yeah, he had some hot streaks against the Clippers in the postseason, but for the majority of his career, he was a low thirty percent guy on that little step back three that he likes to take. Right this season, he's shooting just shy of forty percent on that shot. He's hitting that at an extremely high rate, and so you can't press him because he's too big and he'll just go right around you. But if you play off of him.
He almost like tricks you by just leaning back a little bit and he can get just enough separation to get that three point shot over the top of you, and he's hit it damn near forty percent. And so that just put everybody in a bund And so we're getting career high points per game, career high assists per game, career high pull up three point shooting percentage, career high pull up jump shooting percentage. Like he's just hitting these marks that he wasn't hitting early in his career in
terms of scoring efficiency to match his volume. And that's just put him in a different stratosphere as a player.
Now, if you go look in recent years players that have his ball usage, like a James Harden, it just doesn't work. You just you do get to a point where you've played ninety five games. This is a taxing league and now playoff basketball is much more physical. You play more minutes. They're all hard minutes. You know, Harden could never break through. You know, my takeaway is if you're going to break through, if you're Luka, it's gonna be the next six years. It's going to be in
your prime. It's like twenty three to twenty nine when you can put in these insane numbers. But do you worry about that because we do have a history that like players that came into the league like Kobe had to be like they had to figure it out, Like you just can't play like this all the time when the ball usage numbers are through the roof.
What's up, everybody, John Middlecoffe Here, the NFL Draft is right around the corner. And if you want all the news leading up to it about your favorite team, be sure to subscribe to three and Out, wouldn't me? John Middlecock on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.
Phoenix has been my disappointment in the league. I thought they were a team that would a in kind of a passive regular season league. I thought they'd just shoot their way to a lot of wins and you'd have two of the three stars. Beale was hurt early in the season, much more than I knew he would be. But they have played together. There is some duplication in the offense. But it's years ago. I've said this before, years ago when people were saying Katie's better than Lebron.
This is when he was with the Warriors winning MVPs, and I said, you got to add context to this. Like he's playing, it's just go hit buckets, don't ask him to lead talk. He defended pretty well. He's always been a willing defender. But I'm like, they're not asking him do anything. He didn't have to talk after the game, before the game, he didn't have to be the soul of the team, he didn't have to be the bouncer. Hey, he don't have to do anything. Just get And that's
what Katie does. By way, He's a shot maker. He's great all time. But and I felt this with Kawhi, if you ask him to be a foundational piece, a leader, the barker in the clubhouse. I mean, I go to the Warriors Laker game and Draymond and they're out by twelve late is barking at players. Lebron's a coach and you watch Kad and this is the difference. And I've said this with Kawhi. When the culture is set and you add somebody like Kawhi and Katie and they just
get buckets and stops. They're all time players. But when you have to build something around that, because Booker clearly is not overly verbal. He's a scorer. That's okay, he's a scorer. And I look at this Phoenix situation and I'm like, they would be better with Lebron. This is just a guy to get a basket, and this team needs more than that. They've got guys Bial and Booker
that can get a basket. They need they need this reservoir of Lebron's sort of vision leadership, this foundational personality. And so I look at Phoenix and I think, yeah, I just saw points. But all the good teams in this league there's a there is there's a soul. Curry's a sole piece, yokiches, you don't you don't even have
to be overly verbal. But I look at Phoenix and I say, it'd be easy for me to just say, hey, Katie's been great, But this is sort of if you're a top eight player in the world, this is your team. And I don't care if Booker was here before. Booker wasn't winning for years and years before they brought Chris Paulan, he wasn't winning or a bad team. So I do look at Phoenix and say, some of this is just on KD At times in your career. You have to be more than get a bucket guy, don't you.
Yes, And that has been the primary issue for the Suns this year. I wouldn't necessarily put it just on KD, but like KD, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal, all three of them, they are guys that, like when they're engaged defensively, can be deeply impactful. Yeah defenders, even Devin Booker. Like Devin Booker is not the most physically gifted guard in
the league. But like when I watch Suns film and they're good on defense, it's usually because Booker is engaged and he's talking, and he's like the communicator of the of the defense, like calling coverages out and that sort of thing. Kevin Durant like, for the record, I'm much higher on the Suns than most people. I had them. I had them fifth, I think in my contender rankings coming into this postseason run, and I specifically love them
for the Denver matchup. I think that Nurkic is a big body that can make things tougher on Yokic than some other people. Another key part of the Suns is they have the best, in my opinion, the best spread drive and kick type of team in the league. Grayson Allen on that week side has been the best three point shooter in the league. He's great at driving closeouts.
Because of the three star build, you constantly have Bradley Beall off the ball or kd off the ball or Devin Booker off the ball, attacking with an advantage, and so they can really spread teams out, and so teams like Denver that are like load up defensive teams that always defend pick and roll three on two and kind of load up on the strong side that skip passes open and Phoenix can pick you apart there, which is a big part of how Phoenix has had success against
Denver this year. But to your point, they've been inconsistent there where it's like I watch them. I watch them today and they kick Minnesota's ass physically from the opening tip. I watch them against Denver and they kick Denver's ass physically from the opening tip. And then I watch them against the Clippers the other night and they get punched in the mouth and they've wilt, and it's like, so that's been. That's been very much their identities they've been.
They're they're like probably the widest range between floor and ceiling of all the teams that I've seen this year, because like, when you watch them on the right night, they look like a bona fide top tier chainampionship contender, and then you watch them on another night and you're like, these guys aren't made of the right stuff, and so like, honestly,
like the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. But I thought I thought they demonstrated a lot of grit coming back and winning in Sacramento the other night and then going into Minnesota with a chance to get out of the plane and killing them the way that they did and in the process sparing them from a Denver matchup as well. Like, I thought that was a big time win for them. I'm generally higher on Phoenix than
most people, but they've there. If there is a limitation, it's just they don't quite have a ton of like physical alpha dog in there, if that makes sense.
Over in the East, I think I think the Knicks facing either the seventy six ers or the Heat, Now, who are you gonna take in that play in game April seventeenth? Would you take Philly or Miami?
That game is gonna be so fun because both teams are gonna be playing as hard as they possibly can do. Avoid Boston. That's the avoid. That's the avoid Boston Bowl. So I think here's the thing. My like, Philly's more talented, but Embiid hasn't really played a good team since he come back from injury. And then Eric Spolser is definitely gonna have some Janki stuff to throw at him to try to make him feel uncomfortable. Complete and total toss up. Give me Eric Spolstra in a toss up game like that.
So Jalen Brunson's interesting because he was a really good player with Luca. He was highly he was an effective player, and then he goes to New York and he's obviously more than that. But again, when you play with a high ball usage player, that's understood. You know, it's like a receiver playing with a better quarterback. You can be good. Everybody can see your hands, your routes, and then you play with them Mahomes or a you know, a top quarterback and it's like, oh, your numbers will go up.
So we all knew Jalen Brunson could play in the last month and a half. And I think this is a lot of pro athletics is you know, Carl Anthony Towns got hurt for the te Wolves, and actually their pacing got better. Their three point shooting got better, which is not surprised because they had two bigs. Now you're down to one and go Bear's done. A gifted offensive player, Karl Anthony town some times can take the air out of the ball like a lot of bigs, like you
nump it down to So the pacing got better. So Julius Randod gets hurt for the Knicks, and to me, it's like when I watch him, it's like, oh they they always feel like there is something in this league about you know, you got to get Julius's touches. You got to get certain guys their touches. You're paying him twenty four million, twenty eight million, Well they don't give Julius Randall's touches, and that's more touches for Jalen Brunson.
And I'm sitting there watching them and I'm like, I don't know, Like when I went and watched him in person, he is so much quicker than the TV gives him credit for. Like he you cannot stay in front of him, you know, I don't care about Villanova's second round or grinder. He's not a grinder. It's way more than that. He gets great looks. And I kind of look at the Knicks and I think to myself, in and I don't trust Milwaukee. I'm I kind of like Philadelphia. But again,
what is MBT? He had twelve games? Is at what he played off the injury, I wouldn't be shocked. I look at the Knicks. I think in the East, a red hot star, a good coach, and a lot of be guys that defend and play hard. I don't know, I don't think they'd get to the conference finals in the West. I mean, hell, Milwaukee's a five hundred team against the West. What do you make of the Knicks over the next three weeks?
So I want to preface this by saying I love the Knicks. I think they have the best basketball character of any team in the league right now? Do you mean super fun to watch? What that means to me is like doing the right thing on a day day out. Basis, all the players are engaged, everyone's bought in, everyone plays their role. Their leaders a great leader, never too high and never too low. They bring consistent effort. They just do. They do all the right things, and I love that
about them as a team. And there is something to be said about Julius Randall coming out of the lineup and that leading towards less of some of the ugly things we've seen from New York Cord the years, because Julius Randall, he has a tendency like things don't go asway, misses a couple of shots, he'll take defensive possessions off, He'll pout like that's that's something Julius Randall's been known to do at times. Right, So, like there's been a lot of upside in a regular see, he's not been
a great playoff guy. He's exactly really struggle. In Julius Randalls defense, he's had some injuries when he's gotten to the postseason and is usually playing a little banked up. But yes, he's had a really rough playoff career to this point. Here's the problem, Like, I think we both agree that like the future of the Knicks probably doesn't involve Julius Radel to probably do something different there, But strictly within the context of this season, it's this simple.
In a playoff setting, you can really throw the kitchen sink at a team that all operates through one star, and there's only so much that effort and energy and focus and basketball character can make up for. And the main stat to kind of like drive that point home is that as good as the Knicks have been this year against teams in the top ten in point differential, they are seven and seventeen, and they have the fourteenth
worst point differential themselves in those matchups. So like, they play really hard, they win all the games they're supposed to win, and then they run into the teams to have more firepower and they lose. That's pretty much the issue with the So like, I respect them, I have a ton of optimism about the future. They're super well positioned for a trade if they want to make a trade this summer. They're in a great spot. But like, do I think they're gonna go on some sort of
magical playoff run? Not necessarily.
Okay, I'll take Minnesota to beat Phoenix. I think it's a six game series. I don't really know exactly. I've watched actually a lot of Phoenix and a little of Minnesota, but I do think Minnesota they've done. They've been too consistently good to flame out in the first round. And when I watch Minnesota, and maybe the analytics tell me something different, but I feel like I kind of get the same team when I watch them play. They're highs lows.
I kind of feel like I get effort, I get rim protection, I get ants production, I get Conley's brain power. I always feel they're prepared and well coached. With Phoenix, there's good nights and then they trail thirty five to four at home to the Clippers, And so I think Minnesota is a consistent team with a little bit of a ceiling. I think I take Minnesota in six, picking a paragraph.
I'm taking Phoenix in six. I'm really excited to watch today's game because very rarely do you get like a must win game to sample when you're prepping for a series where it's like, we get to actually watch forty eight minutes of the Wolves and Suns going at it, actually trying to win. So that's gonna be a really, really a good film session tomorrow. Main thing that stands out to me though, that the Sun shots super well. They got one point seven to six points per catch
and shoot jump shot in that win over the Wolves. Today, so they definitely shot really, really well. Here's why I'm low on Minnesota, though. It's really simple. They are one of the worst offenses in the league when you get into late game situations because Anthony Edwards is twenty two years old and nobody else on the team can really consistently generate great shots, and so it's a lot of iffy decisions. It's ant settling for pull up jump shots,
and then weirdly enough, their defense falls apart. For as good of a defense as they've been, their defense falls apart in clutch situations because of the fact that Mike Conley's on the floor, Carl Towns is on the floor. You can find entry points to get their defense in rotation. And then it doesn't matter if Rudy Gobert's at the rim, if he's chasing some guy off the three point line in a driving kick situation, I think the Suns are
going to spread him out and get better shots. I think they'll be able to slow down Minnesota's office in the half court. I'm picking Phoenix and six.
Let's go East Cleveland and Orlando. Orlando is maybe a little bit like the ok See of the West. Young really rising quickly. My guy Jalen Suggs is an improved player, like a lot of people have him as a bust early last year. So Cleveland's been weird, Cleveland's going through something. I think i'd still take the Calves. I don't know, that could be a seven game series. My picking paragraph Cleveland and seven something's wrong with them? What's your picking paragraph?
These series are always tough to pick when everyone involved is so young and unexperienced that it's like so up in the air. Personnel favors Orlando. Orlando's an awesome offensive rebounding team. That is how New York beat Cleveland last year. They killed him on the offensive glass. Also, Cleveland is one of the most high volume pick and roll teams in the league. And your guy Jalen Suggs might be the best guard defender in the league. And so Donovan Mitchell is going to be in for a tough series
with just an incredible individual defender on him. So all the personnel stuff points me towards Orlando. But Orlando is super young, and Cleveland got embarrassed last year, and they know what the playoffs are like now, so I expect a lot of fight from them. I'm gonna go long series. In gut check, I'm just gonna say magic, but we'll see.
After I watched some film Milwaukee over Indiana. I think it's contrasting styles. Again. Two of the three best players are Milwaukee. They'll probably get because it's a veteran team. They'll get the veteran team, whistle, a little more manipulation from a Lopez and the Yannis and a day and with the officials. It's one of these like this will be a series. My prediction is when it's over, Indiana'll be like, you don't like us. We're a small market team.
We got a job by the refs. But these older teams are pretty good, like the Clippers will be good in these situations. I'm gonna take Milwaukee in six. What's your thought?
I would take Milwaukee in seven if I knew Janis was healthy. With Yannis being out, I just don't think the Bucks are a very good team. And if he misses three games in this series, it's possible that Indiana could be up to one with a game at home. You know, before Yannis even comes out, it comes back. So like with Yannis being out, I think the safe bet is Indiana. But if like Yannis plays and he's healthy, like I think, I would probably lean slightly towards Milwaukee.
I'd pick Milwaukee in seven.
So I'm really interested in a lot of the I mean, like Milwaukee losing Early's fascinating. Steve Balmer I thought when he brought Harden over. I was talking to Lawrence Frank about this. I bumped into him at dinner about a month ago, and I said, I thought the hardened thing was just for the arena. I'm like, you know, he's an LA guy. Westbrook's an LA guy. Paul George Quiet, It's like LA guys opening the new arena. And I'm like, he's actually, you guys have been looking for a point
guard forever. He actually lubricates things. It's in cole When Kawhi's like trying to generate offense, It's like, no, it's not what he does. He can do it, but it's not what he does. And the hardened things sort of work. But you get James's weird personality again. He's he's a nod player. He's an odd, quirky guy. I think, much like the Bucks, if the Clippers flamed out, I think Balmer was an inpatient investor and impatient at Microsoft. Am
I supposed to believe is a sports fan. Now you know he's suddenly going to be one of these long tarmac guys like I think. No. I think the Clippers lose and it's they don't get a lot of consistent effort. Do you think they blow the team up?
I think that's completely on the table. I mean to put it simply, Colin, we could have four veteran teams blow up this. Just imagine some of these scenarios. Golden State loses in the plane, which, by the way, Golden State even if they beat Sacramento. If the Lakers beat New Orleans, New Orleans has Golden State's number, there's a solid chance Golden State does not get out of this playing tournament. They could be facing a total rebuild. Let's say the Lakers beat the Pelicans, but then they go
to Denver and just get killed. You don't think the Lakers are gonna be sitting there looking in the mirror like we just got swept, or the gentleman swept two years in a row. We got to rethink this. What if Phoenix loses to Minnesota they just went all in on Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker and they had an iffy regular season, and what if they get smacked by Minnesota? Right The Clippers, if they go out
in flames, that could be a problem. The Bucks if they go down and flame, that could be a problem. What about Miami. What if Miami loses to Philly and don't forget Atlanta beat Miami in a playing game last year because they couldn't rebound with him. What if like Chicago or Atlanta gets in there and knocks out Miami. Miami could be looking at this like, are we really going to run it back with Bam and Jimmy again?
When we struggle every regular season and then we just barely squeak by and upset people in the postseason, Like this could be because of how deep the field is, because there are so many good teams, We're gonna have a bunch of pissed off general managers and owners this summer. That's like a guarantee. It's just a question of who.
There's going to be a lot of really unhappy fan bases and ownership groups this summer, and then all hell could break loose and we could have a bunch of trades and stuff should.
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