Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Justin Herbert Is ELITE, Bears Need A “Culture Changer”, Betting NFL Week 16 And The College Football Playoff

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That's for the people dot com slash Colin or pound law pound five to nine from your cell Morgan and Morgan has a proven track record of fighting for you to get a full and fair compensation if there's an unexpected accident in your life. This is a paid advertisement all right time for an instant reaction. I got to be honest, I've already sent Justin Herbert a text. I've poured one tonight just for this thirty four to twenty

seven chargers. When whoever won, I was happy, although I did pick the charger, so I'm a little happier, you know. I've said this is when I started the volume. One of the things I really really like. When I was in my twenties and thirties, I was probably just too selfish to help anybody else. I was into my thing

and I didn't you know, I was unmarried. And then you get older and older, and you have kids, and you get married, and you know, over time, you know, hopefully you have something in you that you want to see others succeed. And I love seeing young quarterbacks in the NFL get the right coach, and Bonix could have gotten, you know, countless coaches that couldn't help him. And he's

still he is still learning. But in that first half, that was all on script, those first two or three series, and bo Nix was great because he's now got his mentor, he's got his kingpin, he's got Sean Payton. Now the second half it's not on script. That's about talent, and Justin Herbert took over. Herbert's more talented, bigger, stronger. He's just a more talented, experienced quarterback. In the NFL, but both of these guys, these two teams last year were

thirteen and twenty one. I mean, think about that, and right now they're eighteen and twelve and both are going to make the playoffs. One got a coach and one Sean Payton got a quarterback. And this tonight was a PSA for the league. You get the right coach, you get the right quarterback, you can turn it around in one season. It doesn't even matter in the NBA if you land Jannis or jokicch it takes years and years to build up to be viable in Major League Baseball.

I mean, there's just some teams that can't afford it, right. But in the NFL, Houston was a laughing stock, a bottom three team in the league. To meet O'Ryan c J. Stroud playoffs. The Chargers last year, I think by the end of the year they had a team mutiny. They were one of the three worst teams in the league. This defense is all the same guys now. The offense got Joe Alt and Laddi McConkie. No question upgrades, but they're so beat up. Now they're using a defensive tackle.

Are the Chargers as one of their skill people, Matt Locke, give me a break. They're using return guys and Quinton Johnson still can't catch. I mean, this is the second half is you know, Joel and Laddi McConkie have obviously helped, but the Chargers are so beat up on the back end of their defense, and they're beat up at tight end. They didn't have Will Disley. You know, they don't have JK. Dobbins, and you know there's still a draft away. They're about

six players away. They needed to tight end another running back, although Gus Edwards had a great, huge run of the game. But it just shows you why the NFL is king. You just either get a coach, get a quarterback, or Houston get both and you're a playoff team. And it's just I've always called the NFL the League of hope. But let's first start with the Chargers. They were what did al Michael say tonight? I can't believe al Michaels is this good at eighty. The guy is such a

talented guy. Al Michaels is still funny and quick, and he and Herb Street sound like they like each other. Al Michaels is so good at eighty years old, is insane. He just signed for next year, by the way, but you know that he had said at one point the Chargers were like, oh, for their last eleven and games decided by three points or less, they just don't know how to win, you know, they just just don't know how to win. And they take this team at the

end of last year. It was a disaster at the end of the year, could have been the worst thing in the league. Same guys on defense, and in fact half the defense and guys in the back end are hurt. Derwin James is healthy in carrying them, but they're all banged up, and look at them. And it was such a testament to Harbaugh's coaching, because, I mean, Harbaugh and

Herbert tonight won the game. Harbaugh's halftime adjustments and Jesse Minter and then Herbert in the second half scrambling on a bad ankle for a first down, that throw for a touchdown in the end zone, moving to his left, throwing it off his bad foot. It was just a Herbert Harbaugh second half of just great coaching. Smart adjustments. Herbert doing what he's doing, It's just it makes me really happy. I feel really bad for Caleb Williams. None of it is his fault. I just feel bad for

the kid. And maybe it's because in my life I've had really you know, I've been very fortunate that I've landed at good spaces, especially early in my career when I didn't know what the hell I was doing. It's just so important. I tell my kids this all the time. It's not just about you. You're gonna hopefully find somebody that can mentor you cares about your well being and you know, in the job market, and they will make

the best out of you. And I feel like that's what Jim Harbaugh is doing to Herbert, and that's what Sean Payton's doing to bow Nicks. Both teams are a draft away, right. Denver didn't have a ton of depth. The Chargers need more weapons and a couple of corners. But in the end of the half sequence was so perfectly Harbaugh. He's competing to the very end. I mean, Jim Harbaugh is competing to the very end. And some people say he's weird, he's intense. Okay, it's the NFL.

Belichick was intense, Dan Campbell's intense, John Payton's intense. So into the first half, you know, they get that field goal, and that's just Harriball battling to the end. So there's a big difference between going in down what they would have been and then the field goal. You got a real football game, and trailing eight at half feels a

lot different than trailing by twelve. And I mean that kind of momentum into the locker room changed the energy and the juice, And I thought Denver had all the juice in the first half and the Chargers had all of the juice with that field goal going into intermission in the second half, and the Chargers outscored the Broncos twenty four to six once Hardball called that timeout end of the first half and got the free kick before halftime, twenty four to six. Just battling and fighting to the

very end. Herbert in the second half, by the way, Jesus and he again he is working with return guys, a first round receiver that can't catch a defensive lineman. Back up running back Herbert in the second half eleven fifteen two touchdowns, passer reigning of one forty two point eight Jesus. I mean, it's just, it is just I just isn't it crazy?

I think their cap of winning a playoff game. I don't think Denver's capable of winning two or three, but I think they're capable of winning a playoff game. I feel the same way about the Chargers. They kind of have to win one way. You know, they've got to have Herbert be superman, They've got to have everybody healthy. Pittsburgh's got this feel. Pittsburgh, Denver and the Chargers those are one playoff win teams. Herbert finishes the night about

when is it twenty three to thirty one? Three hundred yards. It is. It's just you know, remember a couple of years ago and the media, you know, the media went to a weird thing where it was very sensitive. And I remember about three or four years ago, and the media was just saying, Oh, these Thursday night games, they're unfair to players. Oh give me a break. So I called players, I talked to coaches, and the players I

talked to are like, we love Thursday night games. Usually it's a division rival, so you don't have to do a ton of film study. Like tonight, you're playing somebody you know, and it's usually a division game, so the travel isn't too long. It's a two hour flight somewhere, and you don't hit during that week, and then you get almost a second by week. And the media was freaking out about Thursday night games. We've had some sensational

Thursday night games. Tonight was sensational. I thought it would be much sloppier. I thought Denver was so crisp in the first half. Now in the second half, Denver, I mean, let's face it, they aided the Chargers on that long drive. They had a couple of guys off sides. That was a huge break there. Were two big moments in the

game for me. That the end of the halftime kick, and then Denver had a series of penalties as the Chargers got that big drive which eventually ended up with Herbert making that throw for a touchdown in the end zone. But they have three or four defensive penalties and that really gave them. They really seized momentum and you could hear the crowd a little bit getting into it, and god, that was just fun. Although my phone dranking, it's probably

justin Herbert. I'm sorry to be obnoxious. Can I be happy? Okay? So a big topic of conversation before I get the Chad Millman has been the NBA ratings this week, and I saw JJ Reddick said tonight, you know the league needs to be celebrated. No, the NBA needs to be audited. Don't blame the fans because the ratings are down. If you own a restaurant and people aren't buying certain items on the menu, change the menu. The audience is right,

the consumer's right. The NBA is celebrated too much. The players are pampered and coddled and not called out enough. I mean good hell. Adam Silver two years ago said our players are miserable. Twitter is making them miserable. Can you imagine a football player saying that, give me a break. The league is celebrated constantly. It needs to be audited, It needs to be held accountable. Load management's crap. The three point shooting is gross. In fact, did you notice

who talked about the three point shooting? Lebron James was asked about the All Star Game changes and he dropped an F bomb and said, here's what I notice. Teams are shooting way too many threes. Lebron James said that a guy that loves the game. Joe Mizzoula, the coach of the Celtics, was asked this week about the ratings and he said, yeah, I don't watch our game either. So that's the championship coach and the best player in the last twenty years criticizing the league from a position

of power, not seeking attention. In fact, Lebron didn't want to go into it. He kept saying, I don't want to get too into it. So the people that are criticizing the NBA are not bringing a hatchet. They're not anti this or pro nostalgia. When your stuff isn't selling, change the menu. Rob Manford did, and Adam Silver needs to for the record, when you make changes to your menu, to your business, the consumer always responds, ohways, I mean baseball was in a fifteen year drought. Rob Manfred made

two changes. The ratings went up the last two years. This year they went through the roof during the postseason. People want to watch sports. I want to watch the NBA. I tried watching the championship NBA Cup Oklahoma City was five to thirty two from threes. It was awful. It was unwatchable. It was drack. So you know, nobody's against the NBA. People at criticize it. Watch it. I watch it all the time. I don't really get into it

until the football season's done. But you know by February, you know, you have the two weeks before the Super Bowl. I start watching thirty minutes a night, forty minutes a night. So I thought it was interesting that Joe Missoula and Lebron James both came out and were critical esthetically of the current product. It's not a good watch and when something falls off the cliff in two years, three years, got to look in the mirror. It's not about celebrating

it's about auditing. That's something baseball did recently and something the NFL does annually. NFL is King for a lot of reasons. One of the reasons the ability to self police, self monitor and course correct. Well, it's the most wonderful time of the year for getting in on all the basketball, football hockey action at DraftKings sports Book. It's the season of giving, so we're being gifted college football and basketball, pro football, basketball pro hockey to almost twenty four to seven.

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Bears are top of the list. It's a broken franchise. The mccaskeys are arguably the worst owners in the league, oldest and among the poorest. Really out of touch. Kevin Warrens the president. I've been told for years, highly political. Charles Robinson of Yahoo reporting today that you know somebody that seeks power and to retain power. That's a little what I was told years ago. Don't know him personally, but that's what I've been told from two sources. I

trust Ryan Poles is young. You know, I'm hit and miss on polls. I love the Monte Montes sweat deal, the DJ Moore deal. I don't think he's the problem in the organization. I think Ryan Poles is struggling with the people above him. But a great example of the dysfunction. So Matt Ebraflus, a defensive coach, was fired. Well, defensive coaches don't have the offensive connections that offensive coaches do. I mean, there is a reason Andy Reid keeps hiring

really good offensive coaches right like their offense. Now, Reid does most of the play calling, but Doug Peterson got a head coaching job. Matt Naggy got a head coaching job, and by the way, got Mitt Trubisky to the playoffs twice. So you can say all you want about Matt Naggy. You die for Matt Naggy now in Chicago. And then there's a reason that Belichick had to rely on Josh McDaniels.

When Josh left. You know, Bill was scrambling to find an offensive coordinator, but Sean McVay can find one every two years. So Thomas Brown was under Shane Waldron. Well, Eberflus doesn't have a lot of great offensive connections, clearly because when Shane Waldron left Chicago of Seattle, he was criticized. They rolled their eyes at him. He went to Chicago, it was a mess with Caleb Williams. Then Thomas Brown, who's a bright young guy. He coached with the Rams,

but you know he is an interim head coach. He's had. This is his third different job this season with the Bears. I mean, HR is probably asking him to slow down so they can get his paycheck, right, I'm not going to blame him, but eber flu selected this staff and it's not very good. I think it's a broken franchise. And you know, my take is, if you're really honest about it, you know what they remind me of. I was thinking about it tonight. They remind me a lot.

The Bears are the Chargers last season where they had a talented young quarterback, some really nice pieces, but major cultural issues and what did they do. They went and got Jim Harbaugh to fix it. And that's why Mike frabels the higher Vrabel is Dan Campbell less, reckless, He's Jim Harbaugh, but to this point hasn't been as successful. He's a really smart guy. He's a culture changer. There's

no bullshit with him. He's very honest and very upfront, and he got to an AFC championship, you know, with Tennessee. So I just think Vrabel's the call here. Vrabel, you know, and I've talked to Mike about this. Vrabel is the kind of guy that will come in and the only thing that would get in his way is a Kevin

Warren level executive that was trying to retain power. If Frabel has some saying personnel, he's pretty good at that and has a great relationship with the general manager who he can answer to and trust I think Rabel could win immediately. I think you know again, I'll say this, the Bears have a Chargers feel now. The Chargers are not going to go from what they were last year to a super Bowl. They need another draft. They have to hit on another receiver, maybe another tight end, another

running back. They need more pieces offensively, and the Bears with Rabel are not winning a super Bowl, especially out of that division. And I think the Bears need to shore up the offensive line, but more than that, you know, maybe another edge rusher. More than that, I think it's just a cultural modification is what they need. But it's rough. I mean, you can say what you want about the Jets and Woody Johnson, and I think he's one of the weaker owners, but they have a good roster. Aaron's

played well in the last three to four weeks. He's had one hundred plus passer rating I think on average over the last four weeks. The Giants have issues, but you know, there's some pieces there that defensive front, and la Mars don't want to fire Brian Dable because they've run through coaches, but the team looks like they've quit. But with Chicago there's just I mean, there's just not much to like. I like Montes Sweat and Jayalen Johns.

I like Caleb Williams. You know, DJ Moore, Swift, the running back, there's some Pete Cole command, there's some pieces I like, But I don't know what you do other than hire Mike Vrabel. This is not a job for a coordinator. Give me a break. You're not going to get a Ben Johnson here, Bobby Slowick. It's not going to turn this thing around. You're a mile from that.

And I'll make this argument, I think, And I talked to Mike Vrabel about this, and my suggestion to him is, I'm not sure if I take a job this year, I think next year you could have much more attractive openings. If Joe Burrow is getting really tired of Zach Taylor, the coach of Cincinnati, they won't fire him at the end of this year. But if Joe Burrow makes demands, Zach Taylor's in trouble next year. For Joe Burrow to ream Zach Taylor out, knowing he's on TV the way

he reamed him out. Burrow's got no time for this nonsense in Cincinnati. So that job could be open next year. I think Mike McCarthy in Dallas, I think he's probably saved his job, right, he's probably saved it. And if Dallas can move Michael Parsons get a couple of first round picks, hit on those you know, who knows. But also I think that could be open. So you know, seven different coaches get whacked every year. I just don't like the job openings. I love Caleb Williams Chicago. To

me is it feels like quicksand for a coach. You know, Jacksonville's got an opening. There's a reason everybody fails here in Jacksonville. It just since Tom Coughlin left, it's just dead coach walking. Nobody works there. So there's got to be something systemic within the organization. And I think what you're really seeing now. And I was having this discussion this weekend with somebody I respect a lot, and he said, you know, you just you start looking around this league

and it's just the power of ten. There's about ten good gms, ted good owners, ten good quarterbacks, ten good left tackles, and I just don't like. If you're Mike Vrabel, I don't like what's out there. I love Chicago, it's a great city. They're good pieces. But man, anybody watching this show, watching this podcast, or listening, it does not matter how good the employees are. If ownership and management is sideways, it doesn't matter. I've said this before. I've

been really fortunate. I had a really good ownership in Las Vegas my first job. Obviously, ESPN and Fox are well run companies. At Portland, I thought we had good ownership, good management. I worked in Tampa for a couple of years and really really talented people in the newsroom, photo journalists, producers, reporters, anchors. It was not the employees. I thought management was a circus and I'll just leave it at that, and you

couldn't overcome it. And it was a real learning moment for me, is that the employee base was the best I'd ever worked with. At the time, I thought there was just so many talented people. Our sports department was just really fun, clever, smart people. But you can't like in Chicago. It doesn't matter if Rabel's the coach and he's trying to change things eventually, if people are political upstairs. I mean it's it's like, look at the Jets, they

fire Robert Sali the best coach on the staff. I mean, going into a game against Buffalo, if they won it, there they were in first place. I mean they fired Joe Douglas. Well, Douglas got Devonte Adams, who's playing great now. Joe Douglas missed on a quarterback. But Joe Douglass. That Jets roster they've got, dudes, I mean they really do. They're going to get another very good first round pick this year. They've got a left tackle for the future,

they've got their corner, they've got weapons. I mean they can they can really be selected. The Jets could move down in the first round and get four or five. You know, if they moved down and got another second round pick or a second and a fourth round pick, you could have five new starters on the team next year. And I think the Jets, I mean, they really have their weapons. They have their left tackle, the Penn State kid,

a couple of good receivers, good corners, pass rushers. So I mean, I I mean I thought saw when Joe Douglas were capable.

know why. I've just struggled all year long. But I'm actually it's funny because on the b preseason predictions for division champions, I've actually had the best year I've ever had. I had Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore and the Texans winning their division. If Baltimore beats the Steelers Saturday, I'll be four for four. Heading to the last couple of weeks, I had Philly, the Rams, Green Bay, and the Falcons

winning their divisions. Philly and the Rams du lead. Green Bay and the Falcons still have a shot, although Atlanta right now they'll beating the Raiders tonight. They got to get quarterback solved. My two dark horse teams were Washington and Denver. They'll both make the playoffs. So I actually have in terms of predictions, I think I've had a really good year. I don't know why. I'm struggling so much. I've just been out of rhythm. You know. The weekends

I take favorites, they go belly up. The weekends I take dogs. I have the wrong ones. But I love doing it, and I always feel bad. I don't mind losing money. I don't like anybody else to lose it. But I've been picking football games for so long. You know an old story. When I first moved to Las Vegas, I had no money, I was out of college, and I drove down to Vegas in a blue AMC Pacer that later caught fire. A couple of years later, on Charleston and Oak Streets in Las Vegas, I had Texaco

station I pulled in my car was on fire. And I remember when I first moved to Vegas, I'd never met football games, and so I was a huge Pack ten fan, and so I really started hitting on a lot of Pac ten picks because all the games weren't televised. I knew the Pacific Northwest teams really well because I was from there. I remember one year, I think I was like ten and one on Oregon State games. I just could not miss on the Beavers. And I just love picking football games. But I have stunk this year.

And what's interesting is that Nick Wright and Danny Parkins at FS one have both been on fire, hitting like sixty five percent. So congrats to those guys.

I think Jayden Daniels can play. I think Bone Knicks can play. My guess is JJ McCarthy can play. I don't know what the hell's going on with Michael Pennix, because I really liked him out of college. I thought he was a bigger, stronger, better deep ball to and Tua is more than capable, but he just can't throw the ball deep down field. He's not good against pressure or really elite defenses or in cold weather. You have

to qualify everything with Tua. I think panic Sort is a much better sharper, deep ball, stronger, longer, just a bigger athlete. But I think we have a chance to go five for five with quarterbacks. And this is not a great quarterback year in college. But if the quarterbacks go four for five or five for five this group of quarterbacks, it will be the third draft since around twenty eighteen where you've had multiple first round quarterbacks hit. And I don't think we'll ever get to a saturation

point where you know everybody's got their quarterback. But I don't remember a time where there were this many good quarterbacks. I mean, I mean, even Aaron Rodgers in the last month has been unbelievable. Jordan Love Jyaln Hurts this weekend was sensational. You know, bo Nix makes mistakes, but he's clearly a franchise guy. His toughness, his athletic ability. He's had a better arm I think in the pros and

I thought he had in college. So I think, big picture, as the leagues become more have and have nots, I think we had another bumper quarterback draft class. I only saw JJ McCarthy in the preseason. But in the couple appearances, I thought he was really quick, really nimble, and he reminded me a little bit of Sam Darnold that he was really aggressive. And I think Kevin O'Connell's proven the Vikings head coach, he can coach a lot of that out of you. And another part of this quarterback journey

is there's better quarterback coaches. I mean this, so I think the guy down in Tampa, Liam Cohen under Baker Mayfield, who was briefly in Los Angeles, I think he's going to get looks. I think the quality of offensive coaching has really improved. That's why you're seeing Donald and Baker Mayfield a rebirth. I think there's sensational coaching offensively. I didn't feel that fifteen years ago in the NFL. I

think it's everywhere, and I think the talent's everywhere. So I mean, yesterday we had a really ugly one o'clock window. It was the first time all year I was bored watching the NFL where I thought, man, we just this is just a batterly window. But I mean this weekend, the college and the pro games this weekend starting Friday night,

Indian at Notre Dame. The next Friday, Saturday Sunday could be the most sensational three day stretch of football any year, and a lot of it is because of quarterback play and very sharp offensive coaching. All right, Time for Sharper Square my buddy Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites All Odds provided by DraftKings. You know, listen, the college football games this weekend won't get the NFL numbers because nothing in the world does. But there's some heaters and

we'll get to that in about fifteen minutes. There's some fascinating games. I mean, I'm sorry, it doesn't make any sense because he's been so good. But if Ryan Day loses home to Tennessee, it's gonna be a shit storm in Columbus. It's gonna be crazy. So we'll get to that in fifteen minutes. Let's do Sharper Square. I've had a terrible year. I've had my worst year ever doing this, and I don't really know. I don't want to outthink

the room. I'm about fifty five percent every year. I'm not a pro gambler, but I think I'm you know, in the ballpark. I've been terrible this year, and I can't. You know, I think a lot of it is I've always liked value and underdogs, and it just weeked a week. Some weeks I go dogs, favorites win, some week I go favorites. So I'm just going to give you my thought on this. The Chiefs are now three and a

half point favorites. It's more stay away now. But when it was two and a half, even with Carson Wentz potentially playing, I love Kansas City. I think Carson Wentz for a week is fine for a season. You can't trust his health, so I would imagine it three and a half. The Sharps like the Texans. But if so, I like the two and a half and three Kansas City. Now, if I say I like Kansas City, is it square?

to Mahomes consistently. You saw them lose the Browns because Jameis Winston had two interceptions in the end zone that were from in the Chiefs end zone from about his thirty yard line, so killing two drives. Plus they had three other turnovers, including to open the game. You look at that game, the defense gave up seven points, right, and so that game was closer statistically than you would imagine by.

them back. You make them think Baltimore can get beat by a lot of good teams. Pittsburgh pushes back. Tomlin is a six and a half point underdog, So I this to me is the steel of the week. Pittsburgh plus six and a half in Baltimore Sharper square.

He is best coach in a generation winning straight up as an underdog in this series, specifically as a dog of three or more versus the Ravens, he is six and oh straight up, there are six and oh against the spread. He's thirteen two and two against spread versus Harbaugh when the line in this series is three or more points the past twenty years, so it's the Harbaugh Tomlin rain. The underdog is twenty three four and three

against the spread. It's twenty fifteen underdogs sixteen into sixteen too and.

for two. With the teams like the Packers and the Eagles have scaled back with more talented quarterbacks to throw twenty four times a game. I think the forty nine ers, I think it comes down to pride. For brock Purty, it comes down to a contract. I like the forty nine ers. Here sharper square.

Are they getting more healthy? They don't believe in the Dolphins is the bigger component of their thinking.

for bow Knicks. I think Indy, I don't care what the line is. I think they're going to come back. I think they're I think Chris Ballard's jobs in the line, Anthony Richardson's careers on the line, Shane Steichen with that trick play that got a pick six. I think Indy is inflamed, and I think they blow the Titans out Sharper square.

a favorite. Like, if you want to talk about comps, the comps for Anthony Richardson and his completion percentage Right now, Tim Tebow and Akille Smith in the past twenty five years. This season will go down as one of the worst in completion percentage because of how badly Anthony Richardson is playing. And I think there was a sentiment after he was benched, he came back and he looked like he was a little bit more in control. They were putting him in

better positions. He was just awful against the Broncos. They were winning that game in spite of him. And look like I was on the Colts last week, Jonathan Taylor dropping that ball was gut wrenching. I was on the Steelers last week, Nigee Harris dropping that ball, well, and this was all happening. If you're watching red Zone, this is like boom boom boom. It was just like gut

punch after cup punch after gut punch. As a better but you felt like and I felt like Colts had no chance to get back into that game after they gave up the lead, because Anthony and Richardson can't win you a game, so they're going to have to dominate on the ground in order to cover this three and a half. And at the end of the day, he got to win by four points. That's a relatively big number on what should be a run heavy game in

which the clock is running a lot. So I think the wise guys are still like in Tennessee in the hook.

at home Detroit, defensively, I mean it's bad. It is. I mean eight nine yards a chunk. I think I like Chicago at home plus six and a half sharper square.

seven and a half. They took the seven. I think this is a really tricky game. At six and a half is a home dog in the division. Of course, I want to be on the Bears. I can't find a way to get that. I'm not saying I'm going to bet Detroit. But there's two schools of thought on Jared Goff. Jared Goff outside is terrible. Jared Goff indoors is unbeatable. Obviously that happened last week, so it's a hyperbole. But he tends to cover when he is indoors, tends to not when he is outside, and he is a

covering machine over the past five years. I look at this in a different way. Sure, their defense is beat up, but all they have to do is hand the ball to Jamiir Gibbs. Because this Bears rush defense is just atrocious, like putrid. They are giving up one hundred yards every single game no matter who they play. Saw it again, last week against Minnesota. So I do worry that Detroit is going to come out in a bad mood and try to prove that there's still the class of the NFC.

Run the ball down the bear's throat, and it doesn't really matter what Kayleb Williams does or what the weather is, they might dominate this game. So I can't I can't tell you at six and a half, you're making a good call.

and a much more functional offense. Rams minus three sharper square.

time and kicked a field goal. Week before, making bad decisions at the end of the game, they end up losing the game to the Dolphins and not even covering the three point spread because they lose by six in overtime. So he's a menace when it comes to clock management, and he's a menace for betters.

playing bad teams on the road. That is a recipe for disaster in terms of covering the spread. Not saying they're going to lose, but those games tend to be closer. So the wise guys are definitely back in the Jets this week.

this morning or this afternoon than Detroit. I don't like fourteen point favorites, but they're covering and favorites are covering, and I feel like I've got a ascending, young, healthy team against the dead franchise. I think Green Bay is one of the few places where home field is still three to three and a half points sharper square.

professionals betting on the Bills a team. Then it came down then some professionals, not a whole lot of them, but a couple of them were like, yeah, that's what half a point too far the Packers, Like, sure, there's nobody who's thinking they want to bet on the Saints, but there's not a rush to the window on the Packers. Everything you just said, everyone agrees with.

been throwing interceptions. I think the Packers believe they are in the same class as the Vikings and the Lions and the Eagles, and I'd be hard pressed to disagree. I think it's harder to win as to touchdown favorites against a Saints team that like from a from a from a wise guy perspective. They just don't like this game as much as they would like the Bills and the Patriots. And I can tell you why they like the Bills against the Patriots if that would be interesting to you.

wants against the Patriots. If the Patriots are down early, their record against the spread it's like seven and twenty one the past two years, like they are a terrible team. They cannot recover. So if the Bills get out to lead early, which they tend to do, it's a great spot. The one concern is, you know, the Bill's secondary has a lot of injuries, but there's really no concerns about the Patriots offense. They got Drake may who's slinging it

and trying his best. But right now Gerrod Mayo was throwing Alex Van Pelt under the bus about their offense.

Indiana now has extra time to prepare. I think Notre Dame has a ceiling offensively, whereas Ohio State doesn't. They just played down to their competition. Notre Dame has a ceiling, and I think Indiana is going to So I really like Indiana plus seven. How do the wise guys view it?

And this is a great college football game. And there is a nuanced difference when I say a college football game here, that's the style of game this is gonna be. It's going to be physical, it's going to be about execution, it's going to be about not necessarily the best athletes, but the people who do their jobs the best.

take Texas minus twelve. I think this. Remember Clemson doesn't go to the transfer portal. They have holes. Yeah, Texas out recruits them and goes to the transfer portal. And also Texas's offense over the last three weeks, I don't think they'll pause. If quin your struggles, I think they'll go to Arts Manning. I don't think they'll pause going forward. I like Texas to roll here sharper square.

And I agree with you, and the wise guys agree with you. That defense they have is us fierce, Like they did a job on Georgia. And if Texas's offense could execute a little bit better, then we wouldn't be having this conversation about who's the who is the SEC champion would have been Texas. So, like, that defense is so freaking good and it's a veteran defense. Again, we're talking about like guys who've been playing college football for a while, and I think that's an advantage here.

it may only be fifteen degrees. But this line is telling me that out after that Michigan loss, Ohio State is pissed and Ryan Day's jobs on the line, and Josh Heipels isn't and it's in Columbus and it is a warm weather SEC team, So the line is telling me that Ohio State's gonna win this comfortably. That's what it's telling me. Otherwise, when it came out seven and a half, the Sharps would have jumped all over this. I mean, Tennessee's the best rushing team in the SEC

going into cold weather. It just screams to you, low scoring, take the points. But the line's not moving, and that tells me the Sharps like Ohio State, do they?

guys took the six and a half. They bet Tennessee at six and a half, right, but there was so much other sentiment coming in on Ohio State that it moved up.

And unless they win the championship or they get there and they are so dominant, and he puts himself in a position even if they lose, it's a way to rebuild the goodwill. It's a Michigan or bust program. And he hasn't beaten them, and they haven't gotten over it, you know.

there's just it's just really hard. The margins are thin. Well, I think the Ohio States and the Georgia's and the Texas fans. You know, you've always been able to line up and just beat teams. And one of the reasons is over a long season is your backups were as good as their starters. And football's regulated the level levels of violence. So there's college and pro. There's injuries, but the transfer portal and NIL has eliminated depth at the

blue bloods Georgia, Texas, Clemson. So when you do suffer injuries and the season is now longer than ever, your backups are produced starters, that's all they are. And so these Ohio States and these big Notre Dame, these big traditional powers as the season goes on, I mean, look

at look at our twelve team playoff. Arizona States in IT, SMUs in IT, Boise States in IT, like, and these these are live dogs like and so I don't think quite college football fans understand not only are players getting paid that it looks more like pro football, but your backup stink just like pro football. Detroit's defense now has six backups. It's terrible. A month ago it was excellent. And so what and what what creates that the salary cap? You have bad backups in the NFL? Nobody has depth

in the NFL. You either like Philadelphia's got great front line starters. AJ Brown's out. It's not the same offense. Right, Saquon Barkley's out, it's not the same offense. We've almost understood that in pro football you need your starters. And when you get injury plagged Buffalo Detroit's defense, you're like, what the hell's going on? Well, everybody knows you don't have good college That was never the point. Top ten teams just had better backups. I mean, eighty five scholarships

allows you to have four pro offensive tackles. If you're Ohio State, now they have two. One gets hurt, you move a guard to left tackle. They're all lion stakes. It's Iowa at best.

their self worth on, have built their fandom on. They need to move on from those really meaning anything because they kind of don't. If Io State loses to Michigan for the next ten years, but they win the national title in five of those years, is that going to be better or worse? As a fan Like, they need to come to grips with a new reality of what these rivalry games mean in terms of the broader picture, because they used to mean everything. It wasn't just about

beating Michigan. It was about beating Michigan and what it meant for winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl, or what it meant for winning the Big Ten and then being in the College Football Playoff or winning the BCS and getting a better rating.

and a half. So the majority of my money is trying to get that middle right. But I also bet the Jets three and a half. That's one that I like. I really like the Steelers at six and a half. So if I like, I'll put in my five favorite picks. The Steelers will be in there. The Jets will definitely be in there. Dallas I bet at four and a half.

I like Dallas a lot against Tampa. I think there's a lot of inflation this week, and I think that's one of the bigger games where Dallas has been playing better. Like the last three weeks, last four weeks, that Cincinnati game kind of looks like a fluke, right. They lost that game, They've won the three other games. Micah Parsons has seven and a half sacks since he's back. Deron bland Is back in the secondary. That defense is getting

a lot better. Cooper Rush at Home Controlled Environment. Tampa Bay just put up forty on the chargers that inflated that line a little bit so. Dallas is another one that I'm un paying attention to.