The volume this week on Prime Cuts, Chad Milman, Sharper Square, Nick right on what Else, Andy Reid, Mahomes and the Chiefs in my top takes of the week. It is official. They worked late last night and early this morning. Agents involved hurdles finally crossed and eclipsed. Jim Harbaugh is the coach of the LA Chargers. It is easily the best current job available in the NFL because you have Justin Herbert.
Now I talked about this recently. Next year, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence, dak Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams, Derek Carr potentially could all need a coach this year seven eight openings. One elite quarterback Justin Herbert, who again as a rookie with the thirty six thirty second ranked offensive line with the Chargers. His rookie year, he broke all the touchdown records for a quarterback. So since then he has been under coached and undersupported. This was the right choice.
It is the best current job available and you very rarely, I mean, when's the last candidate that eventually became a coach that was a sure thing. I mean, Matt Lafleur was respected as a coordinator. There was no sure thing replacing Mike McCarthy. I mean Mike McCarthy going to the Cowboys. He had a Super Bowl, but that was not a sure thing. Dealing with Jerry Jones and it hasn't been a sure thing. Jim Harbaugh is about as sure thing as you get. I mean, even Belichick if he went
to Atlanta tomorrow, there's no sure thing. I have a quarterback. Rabel's a great coach, goes to Washington, what if they picked the wrong quarterback. This is a sure thing. Harbaugh's worked everywhere and immediately. And this is not a terribly heavy lift. Sean Payton at Denver's a big lift. This is they have some cap issues and they also have, you know, one of the top picks, which they don't need a quarterback or a left tackle or an edge rusher.
And that's what is all over the top twenty picks in this draft. They could use a tight end. Brock Bowers will be available to them. They could probably move down two or three spots and still land brock Bowers and get a second or a third round pick. What they need to do is hit on some draft picks Beyond the first round. It's a very strong draft, So the first fifteen to eighteen picks are really good players.
After that, you know, the percentages go down. But Harbaugh's ability to know personnel because of the last decade at Michigan is going to be incredibly beneficial. This is not a big lift that you've got to move off. Probably a Khalil Mack. You get more for Bosa, but they'll probably he's a little fragile, but they'll probably keep Bosa. I would guess move off Khalil Mack. You know they may move off at Derwin James. Not sure what they
do with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams. But what they need they have what the draft is furnishing at the very top, so they have the ability to move down several spots and accumulate more picks, and Harball will crush it with his picks. The other thing is they don't really have a situation where Dean Spanos is not a medaler. He's really not. Now you could argue in San Diego they had a small staff, they didn't spend enough money. You can argue they were cheap. I don't view them similarly
in Los Angeles and he's not a medaler. There's Spanos. Kids are in the building. But again on the operational side, Tom Telesco had free reign to do what he wanted to do. He got Tom's good friend, never bad mount. The Chargers loved his job. Wishes he wouldn't have missed on J. C. Jackson, but he furnished Harball with a lot of good players, and now they've got a really good pick. So this is really a perfect situation and
a very easy lift hit on some draft picks. This is not Tennessee or Atlanta or Washington or New England or even that's we had a quarterback, but a massive cap hit. Herbert still a year away from being a punitive cap hit. They are about forty five million over. But again, you can circumvent some of that stuff by hitting on draft picks and moving out a couple of players. I think Harbaugh is just very unique personality. I've said this before both harba as. You can't pigeonhole John Harbaugh
knows offense. Jim Harbaugh knows defense. When Harbaugh was in San Francisco, they had four top ten defenses with the Niners no top ten offenses. They were a mess. I don't think they'd had a winning season in eight years previous to Harbaugh, and he turned that thing around in year one Michigan, year one Stanford. I think took a couple of years, but he had some upset wins in the first year. So this is not a big lift. Boy, what a division. Andy Reid, Sean Payton, Jim Harbaugh. Those
are really really good football coaches. But the thing about the Chargers is some businesses just need a new boss. Some need a culture changer. Washington command need a culture changer and a coach. The Chargers need a culture changer and a coach. I think Atlanta just needs a coach. I think they have a good owner, Rich McKay, really nice pieces. Offensively, they just need a quarterback in the right coach. I don't think they're a lousy culture. Washington
and the Chargers just too many missteps. The Staly thing was a bit of a mess. It just feels like they have to kind of right this ship a strong. This La markets crowded, man, it's a crowded market. People get distracted if you're not good. People have options. The Beats the Mountains. Vegas is a forty minute flight away, Rams, Dodgers, USC, UCLA, Clippers, Lakers. It's distracted. You got to win, and so I think Carbo is gonna win his first year. I think he's
gonna win a lot. I think they're going to be a high end playoff team immediately, and I can't wait for it. Falcons did not hire Bill Belichick, who I thought, if he wanted personnel control, was one of the weaker candidates. I'm not interested in that. They hired Raey Morris. So Raheem was a coach and Tampa didn't work. Was a great assistant after Brandon Staley left for the Rams, became mcveigh's best friend on the staff and did very, very well with a really young defense. Morris is one of
those guys like Demiko Ryans or Sean McVay. Very impressive in person, kind of you know, just a guy, eye contact, really smart point of view. So Raheem interviews very well. I've been told that numerous occasions. Probably I would have gone after maybe a Mike Rabel again, defensive coach. They don't have a quarterback. But I think this is what Belichick is falling into, is that it's really funny that Bill doesn't really have any vulnerability, Like Bill's gonna do
what Bill wants to do. That's why he's got his kids on the staff, and he hires coaches who are He had a very weak staff, fired guys in New England. So you know, Bill wants more control than Arthur Blank and Rich McKay are willing to give. And had Bill read the room, he would have known that Arthur Blank has never hired a big time head coach. He's always given it to up and coming coaches who don't feel like they have to own the room. Blank's a brilliant businessman.
Rich McKay is excellent with operations and certainly knows talent. Terry Fontineau from the Saints is a smart guy that's well thought of around the league. I mean he's not you know, we don't look at him quite as a less Sneed maybe yet, or a Mickey Loomis in New Orleans yet, or a Howie Roseman or a Brett Veach. But he is well thought of. But I think Belichick the thing that worries you if you're Atlanta. He's a
milestone guy. Is he really care about Atlanta? Never? Never, never, coached, really, I mean head coach in Cleveland, then in New England. I didn't know much about the NFC South. He has drafted fifteen quarterbacks, one star Brady, one starter Garoppolo, two
to three capable backups, and ten misses. So I think Bill was going up against recent history in Atlanta, where they're going to take a Dan Quinn, They're going to take a Raheem Morris, They're going to take a young, up and coming assistant that's not going to need to dominate personnel. And I'll be honest with you, the Seahawks' last two drafts have been much stronger when John Snyder was empowered by ownership and controlled the drafts. Pete in a vacuum in Seattle when Paul Allen died, had a
lot of power. It frustrated John Snyder, who went and sought the Detroit Lions job, got a raised. They brought him back to Seattle, and there were some assurances that he would have more control than the draft. I have it on two different sources who I trust implicitly is that Pete would sometimes have a very strong opinion and it would sway the Seahawks rafts, and for years in a year. I was told this for years by people
in the league. I respected that Seahawks drafts were unpredictable. Now, Pete's were very good when he came out out of college out of USC at a two or three year run where they're excellent. But like most pro coaches, he's not sitting around watching college football all Saturday. He's looking at NFL stuff, in at NFL personnel, in film. And I thought Seattle's drafts got much better in the last couple of years when John Snyder exerted more power. I
think Belichick's last seven drafts have mostly been absolutely abysmal. Why, once again, I have it sourced for multiple people that as he started stacking rings in net worth and power, he was more difficult for Brady to deal with. And he told mid January the draft department, the scouts. I got it from here. It's hard to find any hits in the last seven drafts. On the offensive side, They've had two Pro Bowlers, one's a punter. So I don't think coach. I remember when Mike Home was in Seattle
years ago, great coach. He had a little bit too much power. When he first started in Seattle, he struggled with a couple of early drafts. You're asking drafting is hard enough for great jams. Howie Roseman has had huge whiffs, and how he's brilliant and completely dedicated. So the idea that Bill Belichick, any of these coaches won over fifty percent power. John Gruden, by the way, with the Raiders, had the final say with Mike Mayock. I know that
because it's sourced. Go look at the Raiders first round picks. In later rounds, Gruden would let Mayock have more control. But in that first round, there's first second round. John thought he was the television John Gruden and exerted too much power and control and they had multiple major whiffs. Gruden, Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick, Mike Holmgren. Those are just four examples. The best way to do it is less Snead and the Rams and Sean McVay where McVeigh has absolute say,
but they really work collaboratively. They really work together very very well. Sean, if he does have the final say, is very respectful about it. But they're really committed to the process from beginning to end. And last year they had a sensational draft outside of Stetson Bennett, who had struggled I think with some things personally, and they're not sure if that's going to work. He was a fourth round pick, but they nailed their second round pick, two thirds,
multiple fifths. It was a great draft for them. Even picked up some guys late in the sixth and seventh round. So you know Belichick has got to read the room. His drafting record is atrocious. And though Raheem Morris I probably would have gone to the offensive side, they just had an offensive coach and it didn't work. So there is a history in this league. Demiko Ryans is the latest. If you have a top defensive coach and a star quarterback in CJ. Stroud certainly emerged looks like a star,
top six to seven quarterback, you can hoist trophies. I don't think defensive coaches are as good with marginal quarterback talent. I don't think they're good when they have a disruption at quarterback. A backup like a Gardner Minshew or a Joe Flacco. Shane Stikeen and Kevin Stefanski hit it out of the park. But if you have a Lamar Jackson or a Josh Allen or a CJ. Stroud or Brady in his prime or Big Ben in his prime. I'm
okay with defensive coaches. So if they nail, if they draft the third or the fourth quarterback and nail it, rahe Morris will be a fine coach. If they draft somebody and it doesn't hit and they're marginal, he'll probably struggle. It is a weak division. But Belichick didn't get it. He didn't get the Chargers. Reportedly, Ben Johnson is a slam dunkin Washington. To me, those are the three best jobs Carolina. Nope, that's taken two by a young coach.
So and when you get older, Belichick, a year off is not an advantage. That that's not necessarily an advantage. Sean Payton was seeing closer to his prime, Mike Rabel seen as closer to his prime. Belichick is, and his draft record shows it. Allergic to offense, tone deaf, offensively, not building great staffs. He is not only past his prime,
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eligibility and deposit restrictions, Terms and Responsible Gaming Resources. John Middlecoff, former NFL scout, hosts a podcast on the Volume three and Out. I thought, if Buffalo won, they were in big trouble against Baltimore, that two healthy linebackers go into I think Kansas City. So the line is Baltimore minus three. I thought Kansas City has a has a real shot
to win that game. I felt like Buffalo they were just falling part physically, and I think that thing that's frustrating if you're a Bills fan is that it just becomes so Josh Allen dependent. You can't count on the defense, you can't count on health. Now, you can't count on the kicker McDermott's fake punt, I can't count on the coach. It just always feels like Josh is puts the cape on and when they lose, you're like, he's not the issue, and it just feels like, you know, in previous years,
there was no run game. Now they have a run game. In previous years, there was weakness in the conference. It's it's this is this was the year for Buffalo. John Kansas City doesn't have a number two receiver. They have some undependable hardman Tony some some players. Now Tony didn't play today, right, So, but they have these players all year long, and you saw it today with a fumble at the goal line, Kansas City opens the door to beat them multiple times a game now they never did
in the previous five years. And Buffalo at home still can't put them away.
Yeah, to me, this is the worst loss.
I just don't see how you shake this if you're that franchise, because, like you said, you're playing this team that kind of comes limping in relative to what they've been. Who made big play after big play today was Valdez Scantling. He hasn't kind of cold all season long. He had multiple huge catches. Yeah, I think when you're a player or two away like Buffalo has been, like the forty nine ers have been, like the Chiefs, and you buy a big free agent, you need that guy to hit.
So look at the forty nine ers, right, they.
Get Tarvarius Warden Hargrave. Immediately those guys are Pro Bowlers.
Right.
The Chiefs they signed Justin Reid a couple of years ago, you feel them all over the field. They went all in on von Miller. Now he tore his ACL but it was an older player and that was a disaster. And when you are paying a lot of guys money and you go all in on one player, then he gets injured and he's clearly a shell of himself. Now you feel that, like, where are their impact players beside?
Like you said, they're built like a basketball team right now, they have a superstar player and when he's you know, incredible like he was today making plays left and right, but your margin frer is still so tiny. And like you said, they had guys dropping like flies. The injuries were starting to mount up, and they some of those guys that got hurt came back in the game. You're like, thank god, I don't know who he would have thrown to, but man to miss that kick, I mean, this is
a franchise that does feel a little snake bitten. And who knows. I mean, I listen Sean McDermott going forward on that punt. They got bailed out obviously by the fumble a couple of plays later, but that was that was a questionable move. It really well, you're playing a team that's offense is the entire season has struggled, like you just punt and I get your punters hurt. That was a huge part of this game, right there, punters hurt.
He could barely punt, so to lose that game at home as the favor, that's something it's hard to shake.
Nick right, I want to throw this at I thought about this. I really do think Andy Reid has an argument as in that Bill Walsh vein is. I think he really is one of the three or four seminal great coaches in my lifetime. He's aged so grace fully in terms of his intellect, and he takes it's almost a joyful experience. He'll he'll text me in the off season plays He'll go, He'll send me a piece of video. He goes, I'm running this. I'm not telling you when, but I'm running it.
I mean, he's like a kid.
So nobody's ever of all the thirty for thirties that haven't been made, the one I think I've told you this before that's never been made that I would love to see it. Michael Jordan the Wizard years. What a disaster it was. The players hated him. Nobody's ever made it. People forget what a mess it was. But I imagine Jordan has the ability to stop it or talk about it, and others won't bad mouth him. But those years disappear
into the ether. Ore Em was a band that I loved, and then they went off the rails in my opinion, and started sounding different, and I never listened to him again. But I still love r Em. I don't hold it against him. The greatest actors have been in terrible movies. Marlon Brando was in you know, six or seven classics and six or seven awful movies. It's never held against him. Yet with Belichick, I cannot unsee the last four years
in New England. He is completely tone deaf. He can't draft he it's as if he has no understanding of offense. He can't draft it, he can't develop it, he can't hire it, and it really it's making. I can't get rid of it. I can get rid of Jordan bad movies. I don't punish actors, directors, stars. I can't unsee what I've seen from Belichick in four years, so I can't keep him in the Walsh Vein and I'm and if Andy reels off a couple more so that.
This said something you said. You said this for the first time before the Chiefs won last year. I remembered it was before it was It was when it looked like they really could but they hadn't yet won. I think it was maybe the week leading up to the Super Bowl, but you started to I think kind of soft launch the idea of could Andy Reid become the
greatest coach of all time? And when you first said it, I think everyone's immediate reaction is that's ridiculous, like no, But what I don't think people recognize it, And I'm just gonna pull it up real quick NFL Head Coaches Wins Wiki. I don't think people understand where he is right now on the wins list because it is way higher than you think. So on he has regular season and postseason combined, so he's twenty four plus two fifty eight, so he is at two eighty two total wins. He
is fourth all time on that list. All right, He is probably not gonna catch Bill, but he is clo he has got a real chance of finishing third all time and passing George hallis right on just playoff wins, he could absolutely catch Bill Bill's it thirty one?
Andy is it twenty four? Isn't that incredible? That's it?
It doesn't it's it's incredible. And so it's like, wait a minute. Then the other thing, because I had this graphic for first things. First we never used it, but it was Pete Carroll, who's obviously in a different class. But Pete Carroll's record with Russell Wilson without Russell Wilson, and it's like, really really really pardon me, really really good,
not good at all. Belichick with Brady without Brady, unbelievable, and then below five hundred Andy with Mahomes without Mahomes and it's unbelievable.
And then it's really damn good. Yes, so it is.
And Yep, Donovan McNabb was good, not great, He was good. Mike Vick post prison what I love. Michael was good, not He had one great year. But how much of that was because of Andy?
Was that? You know what I mean? Andy put his arms around him.
Andy helped all Michael Vick acknowledges it was because of him.
Absolutely.
Alex Smith the only section of his career that was highly successful was with Andy.
So it's not that he had nobody's at quarterback.
I'm not saying that, but he was able to win divisions, win playoff games, go to conference championships, and go to a super Bowl without.
A Hall of Fame quarterback.
Did all of that, and then the moment he got the Hall of Fame quarterback instantly it was the most prolific offense in the history of the league that first year. Yes, and so there is something to be set and his dexterity.
It's like the reason we look at Prince as one of the great musicians. His ability to i mean like classically play multiple instruments. That's why he separates from other even great performers. His dexterity and he's ability conference division quarterback to win everywhere. There is no way to separate Belichick's career other than Brady years non Brady years, and those are increasingly not just mediocre, they're getting to be embarrassing, well out of touch.
Right and so and the other part of it that is just the truth of it, and every Some people don't like when someone makes this point or I make this point, but the opposite of it, Like sometimes the best way to understand if an argument is a legitimate one is imagine if the exact opposite happened, what your.
Feelings would be, Oh, that's good.
If Tom Brady went to Tampa and they were three and thirteen and the next year four and twelve and then he retired, would that be a plus or a minus for Bill's resume that it would obviously be a plus. Now it would be a little different because he was Older'd be like, ah, he got old, but it would be a plus. It'd be like, hey, Tom left there.
They had two years prior won the super Bowl. The previous year they had won eleven twelve games and been in the playoffs, and then immediately fell you know what I mean, fell apart. Instead, he left and immediately won the super Bowl and the next year almost won League MVP and was in Round two of the super Bowl in a close in a tie game with a minute left, so or in round two of.
The playoffs, I should say.
So that obviously hurts Bill a bit. Maybe it's not fair, but it is what it is. That Tom was able to leave and have the highest success one can have individually and team wise, won a super Bowl, came in second in MVP voting. When Tom left Bill's team, it went for mediocre to downright offal in a very short
period of time. And so that had That's a part which is why I thought it was that it was going to be so important for Bill to go coach the Cowboys or the Eagles or the Bills where he can then even the score to would agree because it would then help Bill immensely. If the Cowboys haven't been able to get over the hump for thirty years, he gets there and they do, then it's like, oh, okay, you know what I mean.
That was him.
He just had problems drafting players the last few years.
And so it is.
It is a at least an interesting.
Idea.
And here's the other thing that I would say, and this is why I think the count the rings stuff across sports. This is not a Lebron argument, but it touches It can be so foolish.
Yes, yes, they.
Count the rings.
Thing demands that we simply say, both Brady and Belichick are the greatest of all time, but those rings are so you understand what I mean, Like they both had Brady now a seven. But let's just say Brady retired right when the Patriots era ended, that he retired, and the count the rings thing demands that Phil and Michael and that these things, but that then it almost creates an extra ring. If I know, I'm not describing this properly,
but the Brady and Belichick's rings are intertwined. Yet they both get credit when compared to other quarterbacks or other coaches. There's no shared credit. And so if we're just to encount the rings, then it has to be that, you know what I mean, they're both the greatest of all time, when I don't really feel that.
Way, all right, Chad Millman, CEEO Action Network Sharper Square, All odds provided by DraftKings. So had I bet last week I would have gone three and one. I had the bills, shame on me, everything else, everything else, I was on the right side.
Come on, come on, no, no, no, no, no, you don't. You don't get credit for had I bet you either did or you didn't. Well say, there is no try, there is do or do not. You didn't do anything last week. You watched some football and maybe you would write about what you were thinking.
Okay, so this week I love the pick. I think the lines are wrong this week. First of all, we are overvaluing the Chiefs because They've played a completely decimated Miami defense in minus twenty seven degrees with a quarterback that can't throw the ball deep, and then they play an absolutely ravaged Bills defense missing six starters. So we're overvaluing who they are. Baltimore is a team that wrecked
San Francisco, dominated Miami, destroyed Detroit. You know my favorite number in this business, minus four.
I think the Ravens.
Role Mahomes is hard to blow out, but I don't think they'll have success running it with Pacheco. Here comes Marlon Humphrey back to guard Rashid Rice. I think the Ravens are one of the best playoff bets, believe it or not. At minus four, Sharper square.
So sharp that if you end up not betting it and then just thinking about betting it, doing yourself a disservice. It was sharp when it was minus three last Sunday, it was sharp when it was three and a half.
It's still sharp at four.
The wise guys love the Ravens in this game. It is a scary, scary bet, not because of what the Chiefs have done the past two weeks, and you're using the right terminology. They're overvalued based on their season long results. But it's still Patrick Mahomes Man, and it's still Patrick Mahomes, who's nine one and one in his career as an underdog, who's two and zero straight up in his career as an underdog, who's eight and three straight up in his
career as an underdog. The reason why this bet is scary is because the idea of betting against Patrick Mahomes laid in the game and he is stepping up in the pocket against a really good pass rush and you don't know where the ball is going yet because you can't see it on TV and who's on the other end of it. You have no idea, but you're pretty sure it's going to be completed, and you're pretty sure it's going to be a long pass because someone was in single coverage and some receiver is wide open.
That's the fear.
So you're right. Sharp's are on it. Sharps love it.
Defense is dominating for Baltimore, and their rush offense will destroy the Chiefs rush defense. And the Chiefs, by the way, missing Joe Toney, their offensive guard, who is one of the highest rated pass blocking guards according to Pro Football Focus. In every way the Ravens should destroy the Chiefs, except the Chiefs have a cheek code and Patrick Mahomes. So I will tell you what I've done, which is only slightly less untoured and cowardly than claiming credit for Beth
you didn't make. I bet the Ravens minus two and a half first half, all right, because I'm scared, because I'm afraid of Patrick Mahomes. But every otherwise guy is piling in on the Ravens, and there I agree with you one hundred percent.
All right.
I like the Lions plus seven and a half. So if you take I do this with big games. I take the top ten players and then the top fifteen. The Lions are stacked. I have eight seven Lions eight players to seven for the Niners. Now, if you go top five, McCaffrey, Bosa, Trent Williams. But when you start extrapolating from the fourth best player, and it's Pine Suel and it's Hutcheson, and it's Amaran Saint Brown, and it's Jared Goff's the better quarterback. The weather's not a factor.
We know this is a team that doesn't play well, and windy or cold weather going to be sixty seven degrees. It's going to be dry. There's going to be no wind. Jared Goff played plenty of outdoor games in the Bay Are, yet he's fine. This offensive line's better. The Niners offensive line center right is actually one of the weak spots on the team. Neither team has a great secondary. What concerns me about San Francisco the names are bigger than
the production up front. Defensively, their rush has been hit and miss over the last six seven weeks. Bosa absolutely, Chase Young, meh, you're not getting the names right now. It's like a hotel chain you went to when you were a kid. You go about ten years later and you're like, it's kind of an average hotel. The name's bigger than the property, right You've seen that with golf courses, hotels. I think right now I can't unsee the Ravens crushing
them or the Packers out playing them. I think Detroit matches up, may not win. I think seven and a half. I think the numbers should be closer to six five and a half. I'm taking the lion Sharper square.
So the wise guys have been on the Niners. It's one of the reasons why this number is moving. In fact, it's a really interesting stat Then the Lions are a huge liability for the sports books this weekend, not because there's so many people on the Lions. At plus seven and a half, there's forty four percent of the money according to our tracking on the Lions money line. Like people are just piling on the Lions to win this game out right, more than they like the Lions to
actually cover the spread. But the wise guys have been on the Niners, and there's a couple factors in play. You cannot discount how bad this Lion's secondary is. Right, look at what they've given up to players like Nick Mullins multiple four hundred or near four hundred yard games, Baker Mayfield more than three to fifty, Matthew Stafford more than three fifty.
Rock Party.
There should be no bashing of Brock Purty. All the guy has done in a season and a half is starting is lead his team to two different NFC title games, lead the league in passing yards, and be as effective and efficient as any quarterback Kyle Shannon's Shanahan has had and he's the reason why he is closer to winning a Super Bowl than he has ever been. This is a much better team than the Lions across the board, and there's a real big factor I think for the
Lions their offensive line. Jonah Jackson isn't going to be playing in this game. When Jonah Jackson played this past week against a heavy blitz from the Buccaneers, zero pressures in any of his snaps, he goes out at the end of the game seven pressures in eighteen snaps given up by his replacement, Jared Goff. Getting pressure up the middle when he cannot step up is not the same quarterback no matter what the conditions are. So whise guys are back in the Niners. Here also the X factor,
it's Deebo Samuel. Look when the Niners have Deebo Samuel twelve and one this year, winning games by an average of eighteen points per game. There's one game when they did not win by double digits. That was Week two on the road at the Rams A Division game they only won by seven. Deebo is a complete game changer. And I am checking Debo's availability because I already bet the Niners minus six and a half. I am checking his availability NonStop, and he's still fifty to fifty progress
but in pain. He's a major major factor for this game. So even without Deebo, the wise guys have been betting the Niners. With Deebo, I think you'll see this number skyrocket. Yeah.
By the way, he does get a break played on Saturday. Now, this game's on Sunday, so you get another twenty four hours, and we know with surgery or injuries, twenty four hours is a long time. I want to ask you about Jim Harbaugh. So it was funny. I was in Los Angeles. You know they call it the city of Angels. I've heard that, yes, and Harball is no angel. But it was NonStop, wall the wall coverage of Harball in Los Angeles,
the second biggest city in the country. And I said to somebody that I know that's close to the Chargers, I said, you guys probably made about six million dollars yesterday.
Yeah, in coverage, it.
Was it was wall. It led every newscast. I mean, it was the story in LA. And then the Chargers have fifty one thousand season tickets. If they can get to about fifty seven to five, which they could probably sell the stadium out now with Herbert and Harbaugh, but they don't want to because as a warm mother city, they want the Denvers and Kansas cities to come in and to be able to elevate the prices based on
how hot and how big the game is. So if they get to like fifty seven fifty eight thousand season tickets, that extra six thousand plus all the publicity you get, you kind of pay for Harbaugh twenty million bucks a year. So Harbaugh not that he's a bargain, but this feels like seven of the twelve losses for the Chargers were three or less significantly more than the league. So this is not a rebuild like Houston. This is like a five win team that could win eleven and it feels
totally reasonable. Where would you put the over under.
If you had to?
If you I thought to myself, am I nuts?
It's ten? Am I nuts?
So it's funny you say that, Hey, I love the way you're thinking about the economics of this deal. It's not that dissimilar. Remember when ESPN went out and signed Tory Aigman and Joe Buck for eight figure yearly contracts, Everyone's like, what are they doing? Meanwhile, it puts him in better with the NFL. They get better games the ad rates go up, they sell more commercial time, the ratings go up. Those deals were paid for in one game. Right.
You just made the same point with Harbaugh. It doesn't matter what they pay him. They were going to pay for it in some way, shape or form by the publicity they were getting, in the attention they were getting, and oh, by the way, it's going to be such a better product on the field. He is a game changing coach. He has been that way everywhere he has gone. What he does is drive the people that he works for crazy, and that's when he ends up, you know,
burning out his welcome. But he will have this team ready to be very competitive and be a contender in the AFC very very quickly. When you were asking win total, my first instinct was nine, and you're saying ten. I could see it at ten because bookmakers might feel like they can take advantage of the public and set it a little bit higher because they can say, all right, Jim Harbaugh is getting so much attention, we know they're going to want to bet the over no matter what
it is. So let's set it at ten and let's see what we can sort of get in terms of some soccer money. But I would not bet against Jim Harbaugh. I love the guy, love the guy as a coach. I think he's amazing.
So the public could do very well if Detroit wins. But the public had a very good year betting. I want to circle back to one of my theories on this, because I had a very good year betting, and it took me about four weeks to figure it out. But I was overthinking the room. And I've done this in the AFC playoffs where I'm five and zo basically picking the best quarterback. I took Stroud over Flacco. The Sharps like Flacco, and I'm taking golf to cover against Purdy.
In fact, I took Love over Purdy and he outplayed them. Is that is do you believe now on a macro level that some I mean, you'll tweak everything you do because you're a professional gambler. But there is a dynamic now that has to be considered. The young quarterbacks that come in, if they've got two years starting and all those camps and the new culture, it's a cottage industry quarterback. They're better, faster, the coaching's better, and increasingly there's more
offensive coaches, and that the best quarterback. It's hard, harder than it's ever been to bed against them because I find myself a default. In fact, a prime example, I took Kyler Murray several times. I didn't think Arizona was better, but like against Philadelphia, I'm like, Jalen's struggling. He may be better than Kyler, but Kyler's healthy, rested. I'm taking Kyler. Will you tweak over the course of a season seeing these trends which appear to be substantial, It may only
be a half point to a point. But I one of the teams I didn't bet this year that a lot of people did was the Colts because I just couldn't buy into Gardner Minshew as much as I like Shane Steiken. Your take away sort of my my rambling here about this changing. It feels like the league is slightly changing for betting.
So there's there's three different things that I want to that I want to pick out of that number one great year for the public favorites were winning at an unprecedented clip. And if you're like me and you like to play underdogs, and you find value in the underdogs, and when you model these things, you're playing on the idea that bookmakers are going to overvalue favorites because that's where they can expect the public to come in. So they're going to give you an advantage. This year, it
didn't matter as much, right, So that's number one. Do I think that's a trend? Do I think that there is going to be regression for that? My guess is there will be a regression. There are some things that are irrefutable when it comes to betting. Regression is irrefutable,
right Number one. Number two the quarterbacks betting, And we've talked about this a lot this week on my podcast because the Chiefs and the Ravens are a perfect example of trying to figure out when you are betting, how to ride the wave and then get off the wave before it crests. Historically, you look at Lamar Jackson terrible as a favorite of more than three and a half or more, Patrick Mahomes amazing as an underdog of three
or any number. Right, So last week we were betting on the Texans because we felt like Lamar Jackson hasn't proven it yet. We were betting on the Chiefs because we felt like we were betting against the Chiefs because we felt like at two and a half, the Bills were the right side and Patrick Mahomes' time has passed
because this team isn't as good. Missed on both counts because the wave went one way and we were expecting you could to do a different way with the Ravens, and the wave went one way and we were expecting it to stay the same with the Chiefs. And so this week trying to thread that needle. Are we betting on Lamar Jackson? Do we think he's over the hump
on the stressful situations and choking in the playoffs? Are we betting on Patrick Mahomes Because what we've seen out of him, no matter what his team has been, has been so good so often. That is the biggest challenge, and adjusting that it's really really hard, and this is a game where you sort of measure it.
The reason I'm taking Lamar over Mahomes, I consider Mahomes better, but as I told you circumstantially with Kyler Murray, I believe Lamar is at home with better protection and significantly better weapons. So it's not just who's better circumstances, whether where's the game, what are your weapons? I think with Marlon Humphreys coming back taking on Rashi Rice. You're not going to run much on Baltimore. I think Mahomes is going to be very frustrated in this game at times.
And I think Lamar. I think Jay Flowers Mark Andrews back he Zay Flowers has been I mean just a seminole change in his career. I mean Lamar has He's got his you know, Stafford Is Cooper Cup, He's got his safety valve. He never had one. It was a tight end. So in that instance, I like Lamar because I think he'll be the better quarterback in this game. I think Goff will have better protection, better protection, and I'm betting that Debo doesn't play much, so that GoF
will be the better quarterback in this game. May not win, but I don't think you're getting forty eight snaps from Deebo. I think you're getting eighteen. And therefore, I like the weaponry of amor On Saint Brown, Laporta, Gibbs, Montgomery, and he'll have better protection. So in this instance, I believe I am taking, well, Goff is better than Purty is a natural thrower. I'm taking the better quarterback circumstantially, And what he's surrounded by So that's why I'm taking my pick.
So again this is the classic. I know that Malms is better than Lamar. I don't think he's got great protection this year. Now he's not getting sacked much because he's very nimble. This Baltimore front is this is the best linebacking crew in football. It's this front seven is really athletic and really twitchy for big athletes.
And I think he's going to be under some dress.
So to your point about the quarterbacks, it's a little bit of a self fulfilling prophecy, yes, because the better quarterback is almost always on the better team. And so if you want to bet on the better quarterback, they're almost always going to be on the favorite. And this year the favorites were winning at a larger clip than they ever have before. So the real test to your theory, and this is what's interesting about betting, is you don't bet for the week. You bet for your life, right,
and how did you do this year? How did you do the next year? How do you do the year after that? Does that trend continue to hold? It's why trends can be an interesting compliment to anything you're doing. When you're talking about betting. We're talking about what's happening on the field. That's really important. A trend is a good compliment to anything you're thinking about in the field. It's not the reason you make the bet. So well the Colin Cowherd good quarterback theory hold up next year.
That's when we start to know if that's really something that is sustainable. As for the game, I think what you're saying about the Chiefs offensive line is critical. I think the middle of the field for the Chiefs in this game against the Ravens defense is critical. The Chiefs are not an explosive offense at all. If Marlin Humphrey is back like you say, and he is locking up or sheet rice, which is what the expectation is. The Ravens are not the Bills who are starting Aj Klein.
They are not the Dolphins who are decimated at every level of their defense. They are Patrick Queen, they are Rokwan Smith defending the middle of the field, who can do wonders when they're patrolling that middle of the field. And as we said before, Joe Toney offensive guard for the Chiefs and not going to be playing that also will make it difficult for Patrick Mahomes to step up into the pocket. There's nothing scarier for a quarterback than
not being able to step up right. They like to roll out, They like to be able to step up against pressure that is coming in from the edges. I think that's going to be a real handicap for Patrick Mahomes in this game. So I completely agree with your theory on why you like the Ravens and why Lamar could be the better quarterback in this game. That's why the Sharps believe it too.
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