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We saw the Texans thump the Dallas Cowboys and I got my Draft Kings bet right Houston minus four and a half to cover in the first half.
First play of the.
Game was actually a touchdown ineligible man downfield. Screw that up, but they scored Joe Mixon on a big run after that to take a lead. Never look back. I mean, the first thing is c J. Stroud has struggled for about five weeks, and you can tell why. He's got a bad offensive line and golf. They call it the yips. He lets go of the ball too quickly. I don't worry that he's got more interceptions now than he did all of last year, because when he had Stefon Diggs
and Nico Collins healthy, he was four and one. He's still undefeated in division. He's four and four after the win over Dallas tonight in the rest of their games. I think the Houston Texans are fine. They're the Green Bay Packers of the AFC. They're a year away. They need another draft. They're a little bit thin. The Packers are a little young. Texans are a little thin. They both have good young coaches, really good young quarterbacks. They're just not ready to beat the Detroits or like the
Buffalo's in Kansas City's. But it's a good team. And don't I don't take anything away from c J.
Stroud.
His comp was Jared Goff. Well, if you go back to Jared Goff's third year in the NFL, that was McVeigh. His passer rating dip to like mid eighties, high eighties, and so you know CJ doesn't trust his protection. PFF has their O line at like twenty six, twenty seventh. His top receiver, Stefon Diggs is out. Nico Collins came back tonight. He's been hurt. Nico Collins is amazing. He went to Michigan. He was a southern kid from I
think Alabama, went to Michigan. Productive, but not a superstar in college, like mid thirties catches and they got him in the third round. And boy, he is a hard guard. He is a hard guy to defend it it you know, you can tell c J. Stroud and his comp is golf. So he's not a playmaker. He's a sit in the pocket and throw darts. When Goff's offensive line great, Jared's great.
His rookie year, c J.
Stroud had a very good offensive line. He was outstanding. Goff and Stroud those were the comps by scouts, and it was accurate. CJ moves a little better. But when they don't have great protection, they rush things, they throw more interceptions. They're just not as on point. And I think that's c J. Stroud just needs better protection. He'll be fine. I think the Jared Goff comparison's always been true, and they have great protection. They're really special.
You know.
It's interesting though, watching the Cowboys. So the Cowboys right now, if you go to the current NFL draft order, there's five teams with two wins, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Las Vegas Giants, and then there's four teams with three wins, the Jets, New England, Carolina, and Dallas. Dallas is now at three and nine, and so the advantage for Dallas is, Listen, they have a chance to end up with just three
wins now with Cooper Rush. But they played Tommy to Veto and the Giants on Thanksgiving, and if they win that game, and I think they will, that'll be their fourth win. It'll take Dallas out of any shot for a first, second, or probably third pick in the draft. It's not a particularly strong draft, and they wouldn't take Shadu or Sanders anyway. But what I was hoping is if Dallas can get into the top five and they still have a shot even if they beat the Giants,
that would be four wins. They also play Carolina. But if you're Dallas at this point, this is why the New York Giants are not going to go to Drew Locke. They're going to Tommy DeVito. They'd rather not win games. And the Giants have a real shot because I think Jacksonville, Tennessee,
and Cleveland are two talented they'll win another game. If the Giants get beat by Dallas, there's a real possibility they don't win another game, and they have the number one pick, and they will absolutely draft shade or Sanders, So Dallas. I would draft Shadeur Sanders, but I wouldn't sign Dack to a long term contract. But Dallas isn't going to draft him. There's some good players in this draft. Umber two pick I think will be Kelvin Banks. He's
an offensive tackle from Texas. Travis Hunter, a very explosive player from Colorado, will go second or third. Mason Graham, the defensive tackle Michigan. Will Johnson, the corner from Michigan. Will Campbell, the offensive tackle from LSU. T Mac the wide receiver Arizona, really big target, Southern California kid. He's really good player. Cam Ward is going to go somewhere in the top ten, although I know little backyard football. For me, I wouldn't draft him that high. But it's
not a great draft. There's a lot of Mchhale Williams the defensive edge for Georgia. There's a lot of Georgia and Michigan guys in the top twelve, top fifteen.
Not a great draft.
And listen, if I was Dallas and I got a top five pick, I would move down because I don't think they're close to Detroit, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City. I don't think their rosters close. I don't think one player is going to solve it. But if I don't think this is a good enough draft where people are going to want to move up unless you have a top five pick and maybe a top yeah, a top five pick, and somebody wants cam Ward, who I think is an
okay prospect. I think shud Or Sanders is a strong prospect, kind of in the Jade and Daniels class. You know, electric moving, nice arm, very accurate. You know, he's a winner. He was a winner first year in college. He's a winner at Colorado. I mean, they're a really good football team now that can win the Big Twelve. So you know, Dallas there is This is what happens for the Giants who reached the do Daniel Jones, the Cowboys who have overpaid Dak had some injuries. I would strongly consider the
one thing about this draft. It's week at quarterback, it's strong at wide receiver, and it's strong in the first round on edge rusher. I would consider moving Micah Parsons. You know, somebody's going to give you a first round pick and have to pay him. But you know, there's there's a lot of teams in this league that are close, but they could use an elite edge rusher and Mike go unhealthy is that and you could go draft another edge rusher and restart the clock on that position. And
there's several. Abdul Carter the edge rusher from Penn State, it's a top ten pick again, Williams from Georgia, top ten twelve pick. But I think I think Dallas, you know, they have to have like a come to Jesus moment. They're just not very good. I mean, you watch tonight. You know Ceedee Lamb's an explosive player, but they know their past protection is just okay. They have the weakest running back room in the league. They have nothing after Ceedee Lamb. Of note, they need a lot of help.
Their corners are okay, not special in my opinion. So I think that's that's where Dallas is. It's not a year in the NFL draft to want a quarterback. There's one, and I think you know, listen, Vegas and the New York Giants both need one. I think Sam Darnold will probably have a market, a decent market, because I think Minnesota is gonna I think they've got a chance to sneak into the playoffs. They're just good enough. But Dallas has a long way to go. Houston's gonna be fine.
They're gonna be fine. They're gonna get better next year. I like their coach, their quarterback, their front office, They got some players. Their old line is just kind of a mess. A lot of panelies don't pass protect particularly well. You saw it tonight. They don't pick up blitzes. They just they just it's a bad unit. But but Dallas has to really think long and hard. The downside a mediocre draft like this year is the Cowboys would love
to trade down. This is why I believe they have to have a top five pick, because the people the only players that people will trade up for is a Shadoor Sanders or maybe a cam Ward. There's there's like one or two great tackles. There's four or five. I think Mason Graham, the defensive tackle for Michigan's really really special. He's been unblockable by a single offensive lineman in college football.
You kind of have to double team him, so, you know, just it's interesting to see all these teams at the top of the draft. Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Vegas. You know, you're kind of used to them, Jets, Carolina, Then all of a sudden you go, oh yeah, Dallas, Wow, Dallas. But you watch the night there's nothing there. So you're
you're seeing something all through college and pro sports. And it was very noticeable this weekend, you know, the Trump dance by young NFL players, African American players, white players, veteran players, Brock Bauers, the young tight end for Las Vegas. But I was really you know, athletes have a sense of humor. You know, it's a sport. It's a business, but it's a sport, and you know, after you score, you celebrate.
I don't care what players do.
I really don't, but I did think it was interesting that in soccer, United States men's national team star Christian Polisic did the Trump dance. And the reason I think it's surprising is that soccer tends to have a very young, left leaning audience, and when he did it, I thought, oh boy, there's going to be a meltdown. And regardless of where I've always viewed myself really as a moderate independent,
but you can drive yourself crazy all you want. But the reason the athletes are doing this is because it's really a quirky, weird, odd dance, and every time Trump did it, it just looks so outdated. And I think Trump sort of leans into it now and knows people get a kick out of it, and it's okay to take a deep breath. And regardless of what you think of a politician, it is a three second, four second dance. They're pro athletes. Take a deep breath, or you can
go into therapy for the next four years. And because you're side lost and be miserable. You know, sometimes I think in politics the greatest advantage conservatives have is people watching the other side melt down and look crazy and out of their mind. It's just a dance, it's no big deal. It's three seconds. Athletes have a sense of humor. We're all going to be okay on that. But it was noticeable to me that when Poolisic did it, I thought, oh,
that's that's surprising. You know, soccer players in the soccer community have always felt a little European, kind of left leaning, young stylish.
That's what it's.
Always felt like to me, you know, the hipsters.
I love.
I love soccer. You know, I've told the story before.
My mom was British and when I was a kid, really really young, I was probably six years old, seven years old, my mom took me to England, and England was the Netherlands with Johann Croive a great soccer star, and England where the dominant kind of teams in the world, and England had won a World Cup back then, and my mom bought me a little soccer set and I can remember playing with it in the window ledge in England, Lancashire, in the middle of England, where my mom was from,
and so I remember those I had these strong It's one of the first memories of my life is playing with this soccer game and Netherlands wore orange, that's their country's color, and it was on television. It must have been around, you know, the World Cup, because that's all my mom and her twin brother, my late mother and her twin brother, Peter, that's all they you know, that was like a big topic of conversation and they went and got me that soccer game. So I've always been
and then I moved to the Pacific Northwest. You know, I was from there, the Seattle Sounders, the Portland Timbers, and then I went there in my career. So I've always liked soccer, especially the United States men's national team. But I didn't look at the reactions of their face when Polistic did that. But I thought, there's gonna be some melt founds over that. And again, take a deep breath to four second dance. People are just having fun.
So there's been some concern consternation on where is the Shaq Barkley Ernie Kenny Johnson show going to go now that Warner Brothers and TNT has lost the NBA and this was going to be their last year with him. So over the course of I think it was late last week, it was announced in the negotiation between the NBA and TNT, Adam Silver didn't want TNT involved in it.
Long story, mostly boring. The top executive for Warner Brothers just pissed off Adam Silver and he no longer wanted him associated with the league, and so basically they struck a deal on ESPN is going to get the show, The Barkley Shack Show. I actually think it is significant because in the regular season that show is often more entertaining than the games in a long NBA regular season, and I'm a huge fan of Mike Breen. I never understood breaking up Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson and Mike Breen.
I thought at the time it was easily their strongest broadcast unit. I didn't get it. Probably political. Van Gundy had been at times critical of the NBA, so it felt like Adam Silver stepped in and blew that up. And it's happened before. I remember when David Stern was commissioner, I had heard complaints that he wasn't happy with the I forget the broadcaster one of the broadcasters on ABCESBN
and David Stern had pressured ESPN to make changes. So but I do think ESPN's NBA coverage for the last I mean, what do they had the rights twenty twenty two years. I love Breen, but it's just been a revolving door of personalities and they've no really stepped up and spent big money and got landed a superstar. And I think this will really cement. I mean, let's be honest, for years and years, Monday Night Football was kind of
swimming in mediocrity. It's nothing against the broadcasters, but it never felt as good as like Al Michaels or you know, the bigger broadcast teams. Jim Nantz and so Buck and Aikman have solidified Monday night Football. They make it feel big again. And for years, I just I felt like it just it didn't feel as big as the Fox Game of the Week or the Sunday Night Football Game of the Week, or the CBS Jim Nance Romo.
Game of the Week.
ESBN felt like Number four and buckan Aikman have elevated it, and I think ESPN's pre and postgame show has been really weak, and I mean I mean the halftime shows like two minutes and commercials.
I mean they don't even care. They're just selling spots.
So I think this will make it more formidable, like Buckan Akman do. It'll make it feel big. And I think, if you're Adam Silver, NBC is going to have NBA, ESPN's going to have NBA, and Amazon's going to have NBA, but the incumbent is ESPN, and I think it's a strong play. I think, you know, I love the business I'm in. I think Jimmy Bataro, who runs ESPN, has taken big swings. I think Nick Saban, Pat McAfee, Buckan, Aikman, Shaq Barkley, Jason Kelsey, Bill Belichick. Those are big swings.
And I think is our business. As the market's gotten wider and wider and wider, it's harder to develop shows. It's easier to go get widely recognized personalities. To put a Nick Saban on a game day, and I think he's been the perfect tonic on that show between all their other cast just he just clicked with them. And so I and the reason ESPN has done some big game hunting. I mean they've really taken some big swings.
Is because for years and years they were swimming in red with their streaming growth, you know, Disney Disney Plus, and it was losing you know, four five billion a year. Will they just turned to profit. This year they made a billion, and so this point forward, Disney's going to be making four eight, twelve twenty billion dollars a year in their streaming. So you know, underneath Disney is ESPN.
And even though cable television is probably got six years left, seven years left from what I read, Disney's now humming. So they're taking big swings and they're going buying big name people as the market has become very very wide, and it's just it's when people there's so many platforms, there's so many options. I mean, people are sitting on TikTok all day. To get attention, you got to go take big swings. And you know, I think that's what
Shack and Barkley and Kenny and Ernie are. I think that's arguably as good as any pre postgame halftime show. I think Fox's Football Show and that show are the two that really stand out to me. The NFL season's rolling along. The contenders are separating from the pack. The one thing that hasn't changed this season is DraftKings sports book and official sportsbook partner of the NFL. Are friends at the volume. It's the number one place to bet touchdowns.
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There's the Alabama quarterback that won a Natty in twenty ten with a Crimson tide. He's the host of olwa's College Football Greg McElroy, who we bring on two or three times a year. The latest college football rankings have come out BYU is gone. I don't have a problem with it, I think, and I'm assuming most of you who listened to my show know what the college football
rankings were. Oregon one, Ohio State two, Texas three, Penn State four, Not sure I buy Penn State, Indiana five Notre Dame six, Bama, who I think is better than advertised at seven, Miami eight. Don't know if I buy him, Ole Miss nine, Georgia ten, Tennessee, who I had winning the Natty eleven, and Boise State twelve. So here's let me just throw this out there. For years and years I heard Greg Big Ten fans always state, why don't we have to go south to play our bowl games?
So what's interesting is Georgia would have to go to Penn State, it's pickham, Ole Miss would have to go to Indiana, and Alabama would have to go to Notre Dame. I do think that's an advantage for cold weather teams over warm weather teams.
Do you absolutely that's a huge deal, especially looking at the I mean, what did Wisconsin just do this past week? I mean, and I know that right now it's not frigid ten temperatures in Madison, but they just got rid of their air raid style offensive coordinator because it's hard to throw and to be a pass happy offense in November in the Big Ten, well raise it by at least I don't know, three or four times the intensity
in the playoff setting in December. I mean, look, I've lived in Cincinnati in New Jersey in my time in the NFL. The day I left Cincinnati it was minus thirty two degrees wind chill, and I thought to myself, I'm never coming back. If I have to retire, I will. I cannot play in this. We don't even have an indoor facility at the Bengals. I cannot do it anymore. Ye, So, long story short, I think you go to Columbus, you
go to Penn State. Depending on the day, it could be a three to five point advantage in favor of the home team.
Yeah. No, I agree with that.
So Greg McElroy, as many of you know as a friend, he and Joel platter people I really like to talk college football with. They're so prepared, and they both played the quarterback position. Alabama's fascinating. First of all. Jalen Milroll, I don't know, and I do this for a living. I don't know what to make of him as a pro prospect.
I really like.
Him as a college quarterback. I think he throws a beautiful deep ball. He's got really like a Russell Wilson deep ball touch. It's a beautiful ball, incredibly catchable, and I think kayland Boor. I think we forget that Kaylen de Boor is a great coach and took over a great program. But you're instituting your own culture. And I think Nick was more of a little bit more of a screamer.
A volume coach like Loud.
That's not Kayln. He's more of a teacher and a mentor. So there's an adjustment for the players in Alabama.
It's a new way. So they've had a couple of.
Really bad halves, really bad halves, and I'm like, okay, but I don't care if you're taking if I'm taking over Nike, it's a great company. I'm trying to change the culture and institute my worldview. So I think Alabama now is actually underrated. I think it's gonna I think by the end of this season, you're going to look at them and go, God, they're really good. They have an NFL first second round quarterback, they have an excellent coach.
But so I'm defending Alabama. My take is they get cherry picked a little more than most teams because they lose Nick and they're going to lose some guys in the portal, and people cherry pick them. It's very hard to follow Nick Caleb or is Kaylen's learning as he goes. Alabama's not Washington, Okay, al The culture's different, the demands are different, the intensity, the media.
It's a relentless job. Washington's not.
They got the Seahawks right down the road. If you lose, people forget very quickly. I think he's done a great job. I think Alabama now is underrated. You know the program better than anybody. Am I overstating what they can do? I think they can win a Natty. In fact, I would take them over I would over Georgia. But I don't think that's I don't think that's the view of most experts.
I think that they've been a bit of a punching bag this year, understandably because we chase false gods in sports, you know, like, do you realize that I don't know. I mean you cover the NBA. Did Michael Jordan ever miss a game winning shot? Absolutely not? Because I check YouTube highlights and I don't see a lot of misses
on there. Like we chase false gods, and I feel like, even though we're just one year removed, people will look at Nick Saban's tenure and they're going to sit there and think, oh well, he never played close against teams after a law after a big win, Oh well, he never had a two point win against South Carolina, who at the time was like a five hundred football team.
Oh well, well.
He never did this, and the realities is not true. Nick Saban after a win or after a loss, excuse me, was like eight and fourteen against the spread in the last five years.
You know.
It's like it's like nobody are in the last ten years or something. It was like some absurd number. I mean, it's it's ridiculous. It's not accurate. The people don't want to remember that because they just remember the dominance of the greatness for so long. And that's not disparging Nick at all. I think he's the greatest coach in the
history of college football. It's just people don't realize that he also had teams that had flaws and that had growing experiences, and I think this team has had that. And the unfortunate thing about this team is his team is going to go, or at least it has up to this point. How their quarterback goes to be. This quarterback dependent is a challenge. Your best offensive weapon outside of Jalen milro is a true freshman who is an undersized wide receiver that has freak show qualities, but he's
not you know, he's not Megatron. There's going to be some defensive backs that he has a tough matchup again, and there's going to be some that he torches. But he's young. Your running game is really good, and your offensive line is developing into a star. That is what I think is most encouraging about where Alabama's going on their trajectory. And they're very young on defense with a new system, and they've played a little better and better down the stretch too. So I think you're buying low
on Alabama if you buy them now. Can they win the Natty? I think it's all matchup driven. That's what I think is cool about where we're going is it's very matchup driven. But I do think they can do it if the things bounce their way in they play their a game down the stretch.
So I made the argument the other day, I don't I thought the win over Penn State. Penn State had opportunities to win that game, and I'm not saying Penn State's not worthy of the playoff, but if Indiana beat Ohio State and Oregon beat Ohio State, in my opinion, the two best teams they've played, because if Indiana beats Ohio State, they're for real now they're a thirteen point under.
Doinars probably won't.
But I made the argument is if Ohio State lost to Oregon in Indiana, man, I that doesn't I mean that you're certainly not getting a home game from me in the playoffs. Now what do you make of Ohio State? I call them the whack a mole team. Every time I'm watch, something else pops up that worries me. Yeah,
first it was their defense Oregon. Then it was their offense Penn State, or it was their offense against Nebraska, and then it was their quarterback play Will Howard against Penn State, and I'm like, something's off.
There's just something.
And by the way, I felt this for the last two to three years against Michigan, where Michigan had an absolute identity Nick Saban's team's identity. What is Ohio State in your eyes?
Beyond talented?
I think they're I ain't. They're a team that wants to be rugged, but they still have a bun, you know what I mean? Like they want to be rugged, but they still have a lot of sport. It's like, you know, they they have a dirt road that you have to run in the Big ten to win a championship, and they can't decide if they want to take their you know, Ford F one fifty or their GMC Sierra or if they just want to say forget it, well, who cares if we if we blow an axle, like,
let's drive the Ferrari and see what happens. I think that there is a bit of an identity. Do they want to be a running team? They want to utilize quarterback run? Do they want to do they want to be a drop back passing team. Are they a team that wants to work off play action? Like I think they can do all those things. I think they do everything well, but they don't do anything elite, and that to me is a little bit jaw dropping given their personnel. Like I think they have a good defensive line, I
don't think they have an elite defensive line. Like I think they have good run stopping defensive ends, but I don't think they have defensive ends that scare me to death and I can put my tackles on one on one against them in an obvious passing situation. I think they have really athletic linebackers, and I think those guys are actually an upgrade from what they've had in the past. But I also think they can sometimes over pursue and Oregon hit them with some misdirections to my violation stuff.
I hate they have really good corners, but I also don't know if those corners have seen elite elite level wide receivers outside of that game against Oregon. And guess what, every team they play in the playoff will likely have elite level wide receivers. So it's a roundabout way of saying I think Ohio State has a crazy high ceiling and if they ever put it all together, it'd be a special thing for all of us to watch. But
it's Week eleven. Yeah, what are we waiting for? And I hope badly it happens this week and not because of Indiana or anything. I just want to see it. You don't accumulate that many pros on one roster and not just want something more. It feels a little bit like the twenty fifteen team, you know what I mean, Like when they were in twenty fifteen, they had the best roster, but they didn't have the best team now, and I don't know why that was.
I made this argument. I think to Urban Meyer a year ago, I said, they're receiving recruiting has been so good. Brian Hartline, I mean, it's just all five star guys that even at practice, it's art, it's beautiful, and it's hard not to be seduced as a head coach when you're looking at these incredible first round wide receivers and you have good backs, not pedestrian, they're good backs. You
have world class receivers. And I think at practice, I think in game in film rooms, it's literally like putting ice cream in front of an eight year old. It's like, I'm going to eat it, even if I know it's not good for me. And I think, what's happened. They're receiving.
Recruiting is so good that it's seductive, and they sometimes whenever they have a bad drive, we're throwing the ball, We're going to the perimeter, and it's like this happens now, Saban his recruiting on the perimeter was great as well, But the culture of Alabama was really about physicality and when I thought Michigan separated from Ohio State. It wasn't better players until the very last team. It was a better identity and understanding of what they were. Hell, they
beat Penn State. They didn't throw a pass in the second half on the road. So I think this may not make sense, but you know a little. You know some of this in the NFL. If your best athletes are on the perimeter, it's seductive. You're going to be a more finesse football team. Cincinnati, between losing Joe Mixon, Higgins and Chase, of course you're gonna throw the ball. It's just it's too appealing not to. And I feel like with Ohio State, I don't know if they need
an eight minute drive to kill the clock. Is it in them running the ball and eating up clock?
Is it in them? I don't know if it is.
Yeah, I think that's fair. And they're also sometimes when I when I watch Ohio State, and I felt like this a little bit like when I watched the Lincoln Riley led Oklahoma teams. And this is not comparing Ryan Day to Lincoln Riley. This is not. I just feel like they look at a six yard gain like it's
a failure, you know what I mean. Like sometimes when I watch them, it's like, oh, handoff to Judkins up the middle, gain of five at second and five, it's like guys are walking back to the you know, their heads are hung. It's like that was a great play. I mean, I just think there is such a pressure to not just perform at a high level, but to have a highly intoxicating offense that goes up and down
the field. But also when you have an offense that can score fifty, you're hanging your defense out to dry. So then if you want to lean into your offense, now everyone's gonna call you soft because that's that's what people have been saying for the last two years. That's why you lost to Michigan because you're quote soft. That's not true. We aren't soft. It just Michigan was the better team on that day.
And Michigan last year had better personnel. They were stacked.
It wasn't close. They were significantly more talented. And look at the.
Draft they that, yeah, there's still more Michigan guys exactly.
So I just think that I think that I think Ohio State needs to just stay the course.
Man.
They they're really talented. Don't try to be Michigan that has a good quarter. Don't try to be Michigan. Don't try to be pen State. Just don't don't try to be twenty fifteen Ohio State. Just be you, and you, the you that you are right now is plenty good enough to go win a national championship. But I think it's going to require improved offensive line play, which we've
seen it's it's been better the last few weeks. I think it's going to require slightly more aggressive defensive philosophy with pressures and being able to ramp things up a little bit. And I think it's going to require them being a little bit more willing to roll the dice on the perimeter some of the coverages.
I think.
Don't think you can play quarters all the time beat beat high level teams. I don't think you can prey press man all the time beat high level teams. I just think it's gonna be interesting to watch them. I think there's plenty of talent in there. I just think you're right. I think it comes down to identity and how they want to play into it.
Alright. Sharper Square, co host of The Favorites, Chad Millman. All odds provided by DraftKings. So I had a rant today on my very popular syndicated radio show Milman.
Yeah, no, I'm familiar, I've I've heard it's big.
People are talking.
So my take is what you don't want to become is the NBA a very strong top, a soft middle, and ten teams to eleven teams at the bottom that are unwatchable and non competitive, mostly the Eastern Conference now and I said, as the NFL has become more quarterback centric based on a CTE lawsuit and changes of rules pivoting to the offense, that we are getting to be
a little nbaish in the NFL. A very strong top of five or six teams, a pretty soft middle of like the Seahawks Rams, and nine teams with two or three wins. Several appear to be soft tanking. And so I have never been prone to big favorites. But Detroit last week at minus fourteen felt like one of the smarter bets. So the Commander's minus ten and a half. So I locked it in at ten this week on the Herd. But I think one teams soft tanking and
one team is fighting for a playoff spot. One team is now on a backup and not a great backup. The other team has one of the better rookie quarterbacks in a long time. That team's at home playing for something. I know it's not sharp sharper square, but I like the commanders here.
Well, yeah, it's not sharp. The way you said it, it's like you're waiting for me to tell you. Yeah, you know what, Colin. The Wise guys are with you. This is the week where they've decided they love massive divisional favorites. I'm here to tell you they don't. The Wise Guys like the Cowboys. And part of this is, yes, the number is so big, but there's also some regression from Jaden Daniels. Right, he was not very good against
the Eagles last week on Thursday Night. In fact, like since that opening four game stretch where he was completing eighty percent of his passes, he has yet to complete more than seventy percent of his passes in a game, And so you have to ask yourself, has he started to come back down to earth. Has teams started to figure him out? That's really the key to this game. And look, you can look at what the Cowboys did last week and say, okay, were they competitive in the
first half? Yes, did Cooper Rush show some flashes of being able to be a competitive, too competent quarterback in the NFL. Certainly more than a lot of other backups in the league, and frankly a lot of the starters that we see in the league. But the wise guys are going to be on the Cowboys here because this number in a division game is just too big for a rookie quarterback who's steadily declined as the season has
gone on. And by the way, the Rookie of the Year ares odds are a great way to look at that, right, how much is bo Nicks crept up in behind Jayden Daniels in the Rookie of the Year conversation? So the market is starting to recognize some of that.
So I like the Bears plus three and a half hosting the Vikings. Lost in the blocked kick was that they thoroughly dominated Green Bay, a well coached team that they schemed up layups, easy completions. Chicago looked good, they just didn't finish well. Minnesota. You always talk about the low ratings. You know, I love Sam Donald, but boy, they leave a lot of points on the on the floor. God, I mean that Jacksonville game was maybe that could have
been forty to ten. I like Chicago. I think they have limitations, but I watched them against Green Bay and I like their personnel. Caleb played with confidence. The OC change mattered Sharper square.
So it's sharp ish. Don't forget this line opened at five. So the wise guys bet at five, they better at four and a half, they better at four. They're still betting it a little bit at three at three and a half. If it gets any further than this, if I'm saying to you, you want to publicly announce you are locking in the Bears at three and a half, you don't want to say you're on the Bears at three. You're not wrong about Sam Donald and how lucky he's been.
In that game against Tennessee last week. They covered the spread, but not be because of anything Sam Darnold did. He had two hundred and forty six yards passing forty percent of his yards in the air, came on three passes, right, So he is not having a very good sort of second half of the season. He's been very lucky. The problem for me, and this is where I'm like, I challenge. The wise guy perception on this is they like the Bears largely because they think that Caleb did what you
just said. He looked better. He was getting rid of the ball in less than two and a half seconds. It's the first time he's been doing that, right, Can they really block against a Minnesota Vikings defense that is so much more complex than the Packers Brian Flores destroys rookie quarterbacks and Caleb Williams this season, when he is facing a team that has a sack percentage which is basically the number of defensive players that end in a sack.
When he was facing a team that is a sack percent of more than two point two percent, he's one and six. So you're looking at a guy who is facing a team that is a sack percentage of five and a half percent, And a lot of times it's not even because they're bringing pressure, they're dropping a lot of guys into covers. They just confuse the heck out of offensive lines and young quarterbacks. So to me, that's really the matchup you have to be careful of. It's
why I'm staying away from this game. I just don't think there's any value in this number too much bad quarterback play, too much good defensive play.
Cardinals plus one. Now at the Seahawks. I've said this for the last year. I'm not sure what Seattle is. I think they're well coached, I'm not sure of it. Sometimes they're smartly quarterbacks, sometimes they're not. I think they'll move dk Metcalf at some point in the near future. He always seems unhappy. I know exactly what Arizona is great. Co Sel said it on my show this week. They
don't outside of Buddha Baker have great defensive personnel. They are really smartly schemed, and I think this is an offense that is young in spots that is growing and confidence. I like teams that have an identity. As the season goes on. It takes teams time, even the Patriots and Julian Edelman has said it took all of our team's time to find the identity. By week twelve, some teams still don't have it. Seattle does an Arizona does Sharper square.
So it's sharp, but it's been bouncing around. And I agree with you about the identity. The Cardinals know exactly who they are right they are even on defense. They are still a physical football team. James Connor is a really violent runner, and they know if they are able to get him the ball and be effective in the running game, that makes Kyler that much more effective in
the passing game. And they're just going to be the better team because of those two players, especially against a team like the Seahawks, which just last week before the gaming it's the Niners. They release their leading tackler, like that tells you how much they don't know who they are. It is like they're making pretty big personnel moves coming out of a buy in advance of a huge division game. And I would not take anything from the Seahawks win
against the Niners. It's another weird sort of circumstance for the Niners with Nick Bosa going out. I think that impacted the game tremendously. So whilse guys are with you, the Cardinals in Decide, they're you know, pun intended. They're putting the cards on the table here right because they can take significant control of that division coming off a by with a lot of hype on this team right now, so it's a big step up game for them.
I like Green Bay at home minus one and a half. Now, if Bosa doesn't play, this defense is very good. It's just not. I don't know if it's smartly schemed, it's okay. Fred Warner's numbers are down. Bosa is really the lynch pin of the defense, and when he's out and he's banged up consistently, it's not very good. And I say this about Sam Forrancisco, you are what your record is. They're a five and five football team, and they're not very good on special teams. They don't get the consistent
pass rush. Rock Purty is fine, he's not the issue. They miss a deep threat now. Christian McCaffrey is still not at one hundred percent on the road. Green Bay the best kind of team to bet. They won and played poorly. You can coach them hard. Green Bay's home minus one and a half.
Sharper square, totally square. The wise guys are all over the Niners here. The number was a two and a half. They were kind of waiting on the Brock Party news because it leaked out that he had a sore shoulder and was going to be day to day. He practiced yesterday and looked fine. So it's really not about Nick Bosa here. Was about brock Purty and the wise guys.
Look at the Niners. You just mentioned luck. There's no bigger difference this week in sort of our luck rankings than the Packers, who are at the top of the luck rankings with how lucky they've gotten this year in games They've won a lot of turnover luck, a lot of blocked kick luck wrapped up in one specific play last week. The Niners have had terrible luck, terrible turnovers at the wrong time, terrible injuries at the wrong time
in multiple games. Right, So you're looking at two teams that are really diametrically opposite in terms of how things have played out for them, and you ask a lot of wise guys and they'll say they have this game even on the road at Green Bay Power Raider to pick. So you're getting a point and a half of value right now on the Niners. So that's why the wise guys like them.
Rams didn't look great and I have no home field advantage. I like Philly minus two and a half. It'll be a sixty to seventy percent Philadelphia crowd. The Rams defense is very interesting but incredibly young, and they're kind of pedestrian on offense with a quarterback that doesn't move particularly well. I think rosters it's a miss match. It'll be actually a semi home field advantage for Philadelphia. They're hummon. I
don't have to love Nick Sirianni. They are hummon. Saquon Barkley is playing the best football he's ever played in his life. They're pretty healthy. Eagles minus two and a half. Kind of surprised at the line. I thought it would be bigger Sharper square.
Well, it's not bigger because it keeps bouncing around. There's no consensus here. We talked about this on the Favorites today that there's no real wise guy side. They've come in on the Rams when it's at three. They've come in on the Eagles when it's at two and a half, and that's basically how it's going to go. I'm with you. I love the Eagles here. I've been on the Rams the past two weeks. I felt like they were in good spots against the Dolphins, lost it, in good spots
against the Pats, won it. The offensive line is not playing well and they're not protecting Matthew Stafford very well, and the key to this team and you and I have talked about this. Sean McVay. For all of his motion and sort of gadgetry, he likes to run the ball and that's the strength of this team. I don't see the Rams being able to run the ball against the interior defense of the Eagles, who, by the way,
Vic Fangio brilliant defensive coordinator. Since Week five, the Eagles have gone from twenty seventh in EPA, which is basically a fancy way of saying how many points they're expected to give up on defense on a particular play, to first, like this defense has finally figured out what he was trying to teach them and they're locked in In the back of the secondary. Cooper Deujen is one of the
top rated cover cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus. That should have an impact on what can happen with Cooper, Cupp and pukuin Nukua. So I'm with you. I like the Eagles here. I think it's a good spot for them.
Ravens off a wildly emotional Pittsburgh game, Go back on the road. The Chargers, we said this a month ago, now that they're healthy, are a really good football team. Special teams, offense, They're resourceful on offense, they are physical on defense. They're getting two and a half. Baltimore does not have like a Pittsburgh, Green Bay, San Francisco crowd, so it will be mostly a Chargers fan base at home again. Chargers come off a win, feeling good about
themselves and comfortable. The Ravens come off a physical, emotional rivalry game. I like the Chargers plus two and a half. Sharper square.
Two and a half is not where the wise guys like it. They loved it at three. I think if you're playing at two and a half, you're kind of tempting fate, right. You would expect this to be a field goal game. We both love the Chargers. We've talked about how much we love the Chargers. We've played the Chargers in multiple spots this season. Defensively they're great, but
who have they really played. We saw a little bit of that Achilles heel against the Bengals when the Bengals did such a good job coming back and probably should have won that game if not for some really some bad miss kicks and couple of bad flags and the Chargers kind of blew it right. So can the Chargers do to the Ravens what other teams have done all year, which has beat them in the second half through the air.
They have the talent, I think where everyone is seeing what's going on with Lad McConkie and are excited about him as a connection with Justin Herbert. But the Chargers have been terrible in the second half this year, so you're going to have to expect them to do something they haven't done this year in the second half, which is convert, and you're gonna have to expect them to do it and basically win the game because you're betting
less than the field goal. So at two and a half, it's just not very sure.
I like the Patriots plus seven and a half a Dolphins divisional rivalry game. I think Drake may is finding himself. Miami is one of those teams where you're never quite sure exactly what you get. They blow more opportunities than they should. I think Miami wins this game. But this just feels like an obvious sharp side New England playing hard, people playing for stuff here, young team, young coach, young quarterback.
They're not playing like they want the number one pick, nor do they need it, because they have their quarterback they're not soft tanking for Shadoor Sanders. You know, they have to upgrade positions defensive end and wide receiver, and it's a defensive end wide receiver draft. I like the Patriots to play hard, keep it close, Sharper square.
Yeah, this is an eye test game where at seven and a half the wise guys like the Patriots. There's no doubt about it. And if you've watched the Dolphins the past two weeks, they were fine against the Rams. Their defensive line played great, they got to Matthew Stafford. But the Rams gave that game away five field goals. They couldn't score touchdowns. They were missing snaps, they were throwing,
you know, tipped interceptions. They did not play well. And if you look at the game against the Raiders last week, the Dolphins were only up by five points with three and a half minutes left. There was a miracle defensive pass interference against the Raiders. They gave the Dolphins the ball and converted a third down for them instead of getting the Raiders the ball back. And that was sort of the end of the game. And they end up scoring thirty five points or whatever it is. But they
were up by five points. The Raiders are going to cover that game, and if they'd gotten the ball back, potentially won that game. So I just haven't been impressed with the Dolphins, whereas I have been really impressed with Drake may He's just a gamer. And I think the biggest problem for this Patriots team is Gerald Mayo is such a conservative play caller. It doesn't seem to really know how to run the math yet when you're going for two, should you go for one? When do you
want to go forward? And fourth down? He's coaching like a defensive coordinator in key sort of pivot spot for the game, and that's where the biggest challenge comes in for the Patriots to cover. But the wise guys, you're with you. They like the seven and a half.
I like the Colts at home getting seven and a half Lions. Remember they have to play on Thanksgiving and they're you know, they're playing perfect football. The Colts, I thought Anthony Richardson looked as good as he has ever looked. I think they've kind of figured out what he is. Some of that is the Jets aren't very good. But I've been saying this for a month. I like the Colts personnel. I really do. I have both of their lines, especially their O line. They've got playmakers on the outside.
I could see the Lions looking ahead to Thanksgiving. They're blowing people out. I'm going to take the Colts plus seven and a half at home.
Sharper square couldn't be Sharper's sharpest play of the week. Like the Colts are one of those teams where a lot of wise guys when they look at this. Certainly, how I think about it when I'm deciding if I want to bet one of these ugly dogs, is do I believe this is sort of the right side from a number perspective. Is the team they are playing against going to have an overinflated number because they're public because
of what they've been doing. The answer to that is, yes, nobody is winning it a better clip than the Lions. They are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. That number is naturally going to be bigger. That's number one great. I like the Cults here. Number two. Do I believe there's a part of the game where they can be dominant. You just mentioned their offensive line, best run blocking unit in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has been playing great, and I think with Anthony Richardson, I think
he played great last week. I think with his ability to run against a defensive front that cannot get pressure since Aden Hutchinson, they just can't. Every stat will show you they are not a team that's getting a lot of pressure. So that's number two. I'd like that number three. There are a ton of trends that back this up,
and sometimes trends can be self fulfilling. But in this case, like you got teams who are road favorites the game after being a double digit favorite in any location, they've had significant against the spread struggles the past decade forty three percent against the spread, Teams that are averaging thirty three plus points in a ninety percent win percentage, those teams in this scenario thirty two percent against the spread, and if they are coming off a double digit win,
twenty five percent against the spread. There's a lot of matchup reasons, there's a lot of inflation reasons, and there's trend reasons. So checks out the boxes.
Okay, a game, I want you to talk me into Broncos minus six at the Raiders. I know it's a divisional rivalry, but when you have young quarterbacks and young teams growing in confidence, sometimes the markets behind them. Denver's a really interesting team right now, so we know their defense has been exceptional. Bon Nix is making leaps like big, no turnovers, moving well. Sean Payton text me this week and he's like, you know, you, guys, his arm.
Is way better than anybody understands.
Greg co cell echoed that this week, he's like he's making NFL elite throws down the middle of the field, hard, deep throws. Arm is not an issue. Talk me into it. I think the Broncos are the side for me.
Sharper Square.
Yeah, that's some of the feedback I've been getting to this week is Wise guys continue to be really impressed with the Broncos and feel like they've been emboldened by that Chiefs loss. And we saw it last week, right like the Wise guys they were coming all over in on the on the Broncos. They loved the Broncos in that game and that and it matched right like it was a Falcons team that was coming in and they were supposed to be a good team and the Broncos
blew them out of the water. Similarly, they're feeling the same way this week I bet they're about the Raiders. I think the numbers gotten too high. It's at six, and that's because the wise guys have been betting it up. There's no matchup reason to like the Raiders. Like they're terrible team. They seem to keep themselves in every game until Gardner Minshew has some ridiculous turnover. He's got four lost fumbles this year, which is I think second in
the NFL. He's got I think nine interceptions, which is third in the NFL, thirteen total turnovers. Like that's the script for this game is Gardner Minshew's down by twelve points double digit something, has a chance to put his team and get him through the back door, and he does something that costs his team the game, and you know, he loses the ball, he fumbles whatever. So you're probably on the right side, but I think you've lost the value in the number.
Okay, and finally give me a game I miss. I like Kansas City off a loss minus eleven at Carolina, but all stay away. But I think generally, you know, Andy Reid doesn't lose. Patrick Mahomes doesn't lose, even though he's not a great big favorite. Carolina is a bad team, and Kansas City's pissed off, so I kind of like him, but give me something else.
Well, look, it's Kansas City and Carolina, I hate to say, like. The Wise guys like Carolina here. They like what they've seen from Bryce Young in the past two weeks that he played. They like the idea that this is also a really good run blocking unit and while the Chiefs run blocking run stopping defense is elite, there's still an opportunity here for the Chiefs and if they aren't running
it very well. They have liked what they've seen. The Wise guys have liked what they've seen from Bryce Young and his ability to find the right receivers, especially against the chief secondary that isn't very good. You got to go on the road win is a double digit favorite. It's just a bad spot and historically now this year, double digit favorites are rushing right, it's been.
That's my take at the top of this podcast was, yeah, the separate we're getting to be the NBA. The difference between Denver and Orlando is significant.
Yes, So let me give you a couple of stats here. Then if you're gonna be talking about this because it helps illuminate it a little bit. So double digit favorites are five and oh this year, so the first time they've been undefeated, not against the spread, just undefeated this late in the year and twenty seasons, only the second time in the past forty seasons. Here's how extraordinary this is. Though they are undefeated against the spread. For that, you
have to go back to nineteen fifty. That is the last time double digit favorites were undefeated against the spread through eleven weeks. Let me put this in context for you, Colin. The point spread was less than a decade old in nineteen fifty. It was invented in like nineteen forty one by a commodities trader in Chicago. So the last time there was this kind of double digit cover streak was nineteen fifty, and the spread was an infant. It barely existed before. That's how unprecedentre this is.
People were betting pith helmets and bales of hay.
I mean, that was just.
Exactly and Wooden Nichols, you know, Chad at Milton. Oh yeah, so they're going to be on this. So but the point is, the wise guys are going to be on the panthers. They're going to bet against the trend. Same thing with the Titans. By the way, they don't love it, but they're going to bet against how bad the Titans have been against the spread. They're going to bet against the inflation you get from the Texans beating the Cowboys in prime time. They haven't been impressed. We see j
Stroud this year. They do like the Titans defense. Talk about unlucky. The Titans seem to shoot themselves in the foot every week. So if they can get one of these breaks, that's the difference in a game where the number is more than a touchdown.
Chad Melman, good to you, Good see anybody.
Good to see you too. Brother.
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