Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Chiefs ALWAYS Find A Way To Win, Bears’ Offense Is Broken, Steelers Renaissance With Russ, Betting NFL Week 11

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look tired. You know, division rivalry games are usually pretty physical. I think it's disturbing how Philadelphia, much better roster than Washington couldn't get anything going in the first half. You know, it wasn't until the last final drives when you know they kind of cut loose. It's just you have to

be a better football team than that. Eagles through six and zero when Saquon Barkley rushes for one hundred plus yards, so he's completely changed the offense Jalen Hurts, and there were times tonight in the first half when Jalen Hurts missed AJ Brown badly. I'm like a twelve fifteen yard out, and you know, he's just the savior of the offense. I find it remarkable. You know, nobody in the NFL loves the trade to their rivals. It's sort of a no no, you know, to me, as long as you're

not trading like your best player. It is unbelievable. The New York Giants allowed and it was the most predictable thing in the world. Saquon Barkley, their best player by a lot, to go to the Philadelphia Eagles. Jesus. I mean, that's just not good GMing. And I don't know if the Giants are going to clean house. But that's the kind of thing that gets you fired. And Barkley's a remarkable player, you know. You know, it's really cracks me up.

The media overreacts to everything, and a lot of it is the media is much younger than it used to be. Is that the media, you know, companies now don't have the money, especially traditional media. You know, they're going to get young and cheap in the media. So a lot of times the media is thirty one years old, twenty eight years old. Their reaction to stuff is like it's

never happened before. But that's their life. You know, I've been doing this so long now, and I'm believing that's not a humble brag, you know, it's it's sometimes I look at the media and I think, guys, this is it's everything cyclical. I mean virtually politics is cyclical. Everything is cyclical. Tech, the industry is not very old, but it feels cyclical. You get ups and downs. Everybody overreacts

to everything. And earlier this year, you know, or was it last year the off season, there was this big complaint that running backs are not getting paid, and it's like, take a deep breath. Safeties have never been paid. You tight ends have always been underpaid. Interior offensive linemen don't get paid unless you're the la rams. They pay theirs. Running Backs are always going to be valuable because a running back is essential for a young quarterback. For instance,

all quarterbacks are better. I mean, Jalen Hurts is not a kid anymore, but all quarterbacks are better the good running back. Well, quarterbacks the most essential piece in the league. Secondly, running backs, whether gets harsh, whether it gets colder, it gets windier. November December, January, running games become more essential.

Not to mention, you know, our running back is such a great piece, not just not just to set the tempo of a team, but when you lead, and good teams lead, and so a lot of times are running back eats up the clock. So good teams are always going to want a good running back. I mean, Philadelphia is a good team. Excellent running back Isaah pa Checo when he comes back, will be so valuable to the Kansas City Chiefs. James Cook for the Buffalo Bills has

changed everything. Dereck Henry for the Ravens. I mean, look at Cincinnati, one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Let Joe Mixon go. Bengals would die for a twelve play drive, nine runs with Joe Mixon to keep their awful defense off the field. The Detroit Lions have two excellent running backs, so that this idea that running backs were going to you know, disappear into the ether. The reports. I said this on FS one. I set up multiple times take a deep breath. There was always going to

be a market for Austin Eckler. You know, Washington's like, hey, we need you. You don't have to get thirty carries, but we need you. So there's excellent young running backs in the league. And Saquon Barkley is so valuable. This is a team that's good. They often play with the league, and he was like a closer tonight. He was just so dependable late in the football game. I will say, if these are two of the best teams in the NFC,

then the AFC is still superior to the NFC. But I also think Jalen Hurts allows Saquon Barkley, excuse me, allows Jalen Hurts to throw less in a six game winning streak. He's only had two turnovers. So Jalen Hurts can throw twenty two times. He didn't have to throw thirty four times. So it frustrates me sometimes. And I see this in the political media. You know, to the Trump election. It's listen, the election was decided by a million six votes or something like that in the country

of three hundred and fifty million people. And you can see from the appointees, you know, Trump. Trump is almost going to be a polarizing personality and a polarizing president. You know, he'll create great passion from the blue team. You go to the midterm elections, the Senate, the House, things change. It's just, you know, nothing, nothing lasts forever. So running backs are very, very valuable. I also think,

you know, it's like in the NBA. Remember it was the small ball League and everybody got small, and then here comes Jokis and here comes Giannis, and you know, the Boston Celtics are like, let's get a big, let's get poor Zingis. And now you know, with the emergence of some of these young stars like a Wemby, you just have to have size. You're just in the NBA, you're just not gonna win a championship. I mean, the

Julius Randalls Sea, We'll take Karl Anthony Towns. We need more size if we want to match up with Jiannis, Embiid and Poor Zingis in the East. I mean, it's amazing how many true big men. Anthony Davis is the best player in the Lakers, Jannis on Milwaukee, Jokic, Wemby, There's all sorts of good players. Check Holmgren such a good player for Okay, see he's not as good as SGA,

but a great player. So I mean one team Minnesota, I mean it has been kind of reboot as a franchise before Karl Anthony town got traded because they went and got Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony Towns. They went and got two centers. Everything, everything over time either re emerges, emerges, regresses. To the mean, take a deep breath, It's all going to be okay, you know. I also think what's happening

last weekend was a great weekend for underdogs. And I thought tonight when Washington, I couldn't you couldn't figure the first half out. I mean you look at the stats. Washington never had the football. They had the football eleven minutes and they led, and it was one of these football games You're like, what's happening here? Philadelphia so much better, Jacksonville, Minnesota last weekend. Minnesota was so much better San Francisco and Tampa last week and go to the box score

in that game. So what you're finding is a lot of these superior football teams. They're injured, they're beat up, they're playing some backups, they're tired. You know, a lot of the better football teams in the NFL, they have older players, players just out of their prime. Week ten, week eleven, week twelve. Listen. I like Jayden Daniels and let's talk about this, but he's hit a bit of a rookie wall And last year C. J. Stroud had a three game stretch and we all like him where

he completed fifty seven percent of his throws. So Jaden Daniels comes in, has a little Lamar Jackson field. Nobody has any film, nobody has in the NFL film. I mean you're just kind of okay. You go back and look at the LSU film. I mean you don't you don't know really what you get. And then Cliff Kingsbury with Jayden Daniels brand new. So you get four five weeks and you're like, oh, then you know, then they lose to a Baltimore and I played Pittsburgh a couple

of weeks ago and they lose to a Pittsburgh. And now they lose to a Philadelphia. So some teams Washington I had as a wildcard team coming into the season. Some teams it takes a while to figure them out and I think more than any team in the NFL, that's Washington. They come in with a fastball, nobody's seen it. Kingsbury's got a new offense and a new quarterback, and everybody's kind of just you just you need more film and then all of a sudden you kind of figure

out what they are, what they're not. You see their offensive line, you know, into the season, Going into the season, we all said about the Commanders. Don't know if I like the offensive line. You know, they kind of fool people early, some smoking mirrors. I mean, they're just picking up seven yards a chunk, but they can't sustain it because they really don't have good enough.

some games where you know, the game speeds up. The other thing is what happens is like a young quarterback maybe has a favorite receiver, you know, maybe relies you know, more on a running back, and then people start getting dinged up in week nine and ten and eleven, and now you know Jaden Daniels doesn't have all the components he needs, and so you know, then Cliff Kingsbury has

certain things. He's not gonna run, certain plays, certain sets, so you know on insert day, you know, and this is a short week anyway, you know, you're just you're limited on what you have. And I think that's what you're seeing. I think you're seeing a young quarterback and it just steps. Everything for these young quarterbacks is steps. You No, Bowe Nicks started slowly, but he has an offensive head coach and one of the great ones in

Sean Payton. He keeps getting better and better. Whereas the element of surprise, what the heck is Jaden Daniels And you're guessing and he's so electric and so athletic. He was just he was picking up yards with his feet. Nothing quite like him. Looks a little like Lamar in the NFC, and now we're seeing people have a track. Doesn't mean it's like a little bit like Lamar Jackson.

I mean Lamar's first full year starting MVP, but he would have trouble in some division games as teams in his division, like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati had seen Lamar Jackson multiple times. Remember Lamar's first year. He comes in late week eleven, he beats the Chargers, then he has to face him again in the playoffs and he loses the Chargers. I remember talking to Tom Telesco, the GM of the Chargers at the time, and he said, you know you first time you face him, I mean, you just don't.

Because you can watch all the film you want, you have no idea how fast he is, how twitchy he is, how quick he sees and thinks and reacts. And then the second time you face him, Okay, we're going to take away this, that's his fastball. We're taking away that force him to go to his second and his third receiver. And then you he's still tough to beat. But you can ask Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson has struggled in his career. I don't think he's had a great record with against

the Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Tomlin. They always have a good defense. They see him multiple times a year, they know all the tricks, and so I think Jayden Daniels will be a very effective quarterback for teams that don't face him a lot. But for a Philadelphia that's well run, good pieces that sees him twice a year, you know he may have through the years, he may have trouble with the Eagles, but still love him. It's a pretty good

quarterback class. A few years ago we had the class with Jalen Hurts and Tua and Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. This quarterback class, JJ McCarthy looked really, really good in the preseason. Preseason, but he looks really good, and Bo Nicks looks good, and Jayden Daniels looks good. And I do believe Kayleb Williams will eventually get it right or closer to what he's going to be. He had a good three game stretcher earlier this season. Kayleb Williams was

seventy four percent completion percentage three games. But again, now people are getting taped. Now they see what Caleb can't do. Then all of a sudden, you have a wide receiver that stinged up, just steps, just a process. Jaden's going to be great. I thought Philadelphia and I they just looked they were a little tired, little beat up, but they came back to be the inferior roster twenty six

to eighteen. Nick Ceriani, I still cannot get over. I don't believe they've scored on the opening drive this year. Offensive coach sa Kwon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Davonte Smith, good old line. That's just odd to me. Just Philadelphia is such a unique franchise. And maybe I'm loopy because this game put me to sleep, But they're the only franchise that makes constant coaching changes. You're never quite in love with the coach. And yet I think it's a

top five organization in the NFL. Everybody else, like Kansas City feels so stable, Baltimore feels so stable. Philadelphia is a little rocky and turbulent. I mean, how many coordinators have they had. I mean they're on their third offensive coordinator in three years. They're constantly rotating through coordinators, coaches, a few years back, quarterbacks. But yet I don't see them like the New York Jets the New York Giants. As a reactionary, I tend to think they're proactive, smart owner,

smart GM. I didn't love them firing Chip Kelly, but at the time I felt like Chip Kelly's got a winning record. But you know what we found out in San Francisco. Chip's more of a college guy than a pro guy. So they knew something in the building that we didn't. Even though they went ten and six ten and six first two years with pretty average quarterback play,

they knew something. They saw something Carson Wentz. They signed him to a big deal, and then they know they kind of moved off him, and you're thinking, what are you doing here? You just sign them to do a big deal. They kind of knew something. You know, they know things in the building, they keep it to themselves,

and they react proactively, very strongly. And so Philadelphia once again, I mean, this offense with Jalen Hurts has been one of two things, turnover prone and awful or when Nick Sirianni moves back and lets his oc run things excellent. There's nothing in between. It's either been you know, like right now, it's powerful. It's a powerful offense with a great old line at Saquon Barkley six and oh are the Eagles when Saquon rushes for one hundred or more

completely change the offense of Philadelphia. Okay, this weekend, there's some interesting things tonight Jake Paul, Mike Tyson, Saturday, John Jones UFC fight. Good weekend. Good. Anytime you can get a fight on a Friday and a Saturday into a big football weekend. Excellent. Chad Melman's next. So I went today and I said, and I watched Russell. So the Steeters are three and oh with Russell Wilson averaging about thirty a game. It's the first time in several years

they have the offense moving. And I went back and I took Russell Wilson with Pete Carolyn Seattle, Russell Wilson, the one year with Sean Payton, and Russell Wilson with Mike Tomlin, the three times he's had competent coaches. And you know what he gives you. He moves sixty four percent completion percentage, a passer rating over one hundred. He doesn't miss any starts. He's not great from the pocket,

but he throws a really nice deep ball. And when I watch what he's done to Pittsburgh he has brought it's a little big Ben. He's a totally different player. He's brought the deep ball back to the Steelers. So now you have veteran just say it out loud, veteran coach, great defense, tough at home, solid run game, good deep ball offense. That's pretty good football team. That's pretty good team.

throw to Mike Williams? Yeah, what do what are the best wide receivers now adding Mike Williams with pickens and their tight end, big guys, throw them up, give them fifty to fifty balls, because they're not fifty to fifty balls with those guys right there, Seventy five twenty five balls with those guys. So I thought, at times a day like this where you got to be careful about writing your takes down at halftime, like the gap, Jayden looked way better their offense was rolling. But Russell, there

is something to be said. I think he can be kind of corny and kind of just stupid, the way that he comes off like a politician at times. Yeah, yeah, but he is very steady Eddy. You know, he doesn't go into the tank when it looks it just pipped off early. And the Fields he also can make the throw that that lob touch throw that won them the game that a handful of bet the average to blow average quarterbacks can't make. It was a problem with Trubisky forever.

You know, Fields is a more talented Trubisky, but cannot make that layered kind of lollipop throw. And at this point in time, that is Russell's go to throw. And even back when he was better, when did his game like when he got DK metcalf. So you give him these big targets, Sutton like they had some plays at Denver, right, throw it up, let them go make a play. That was a big win for Pittsburgh Collin because I thought I was thoroughly impressed with Washington. I'm like, this is

gonna be a great win. And then Russell drives him right down the field, even as calmness that there is something to be said on that game winning drive that he led them on. When those guys look at him in the huddle like this ain't his first rodeo. Don't say what you want about him. He's not near the same guy. But like you look at him in the huddle, you go, this guy has been in this moment, you know, fifty plus times in his career.

you know, much to work with. But I think the story here is, and I've said this, poorly coached teams. Brandon Staley last year start the year, Remember that, Brandon, I think it was last year. They start, they almost beat Miami to start a wild, crazy game, and then about week six, you're like, man, they're not well coached and then by like week twelve, the players have quit. A poorly run business can fool people three or four

or five weeks. I mean that Tennessee win. I mean they were outplayed by the Titans at home in Week one. It was a Will Levis mistake or that's an l I think what you look at this team now is you look at a poorly coached team. There's a lack of belief. There's absolutely no identity. Offensively, they averaged two point four yards of play. Ryan Poles said last week, we're not making coaching changes. This is not Jacksonville. Chicago is a loud media. Do you fire Matt Eberflus during the season.

They're in shambles. They're coaching staff's in embarrassment right now, and it's gonna get absolutely destroyed by every Bears fan, and rightfully so. Yeah, but I also think that, like Ryan Poles, Bear's responsibility. He drafted Roma Doonza, who we all like. Their offensive line is pitiful, and there were countless offensive linemen on the board at pick nine that would have who's Jim Harbaugh take? He takes an offensive lineman where it's like, take a receiver, He's like, no,

who would Andy Reid have taken in that spot? He would have taken a guard or a tackle because you have to protect that guy. And they took a wide receiver when they already got multiple wide receivers. And let's face it, they got a problem on their hands because Dj Moore, who for like a five straight year stretch. Everyone in the NFL is like, listen, I don't know this guy. Doesn't matter what quarterback he's playing with. This guy's a stud. People liked him, who's high character. He

does not like Caleb like they have an issue. They have an issue, and they just extended him. Now obviously it's not like if you have to pick one or the other. They have no choice. They're all in on Caleb Williams. But that is a problem for them. And I saw this with the forty nine ers, And I'm

not comparing Caleb to Trey Lance. He's obviously a much better player, but they never believed in Trey Lance, not the coaching staff, not the front office, the players why they wanted Jimmy, why they had no problem going to Purty because they see every day in practice. I think we were talking before you jumped on about like I think Nick Wright had a take about like just go with Trey Lance right now because maybe you get something

and best case, he just sucks and you lose. You know why you can't do that because Micah Parsons and Ceedee Lamb would be like, what the fuck are we doing?

ten games in, there are plays. It's not all his fault. But I think we also have to acknowledge like Drake may plays in an organization that's in turmoil. His the former head coach, who's one of the most legendary sports figures of all times, ripping drowd mail. Like three weeks ago, everyone's ripping the owner. The coaching staff's more than questionable. There's not that much talent. You watch Drake may Or, like God, he was the best quarterback by a wide

margin on the field, no question. And the other thing Colin is like, let's use Jared Goff as an example. Remember that rookie season. It felt like is this guy, this guy even an NFL player? But the one thing you knew Jared Goff could do in college was like he was a pocket quarterback. So he's never gonna have to run. He's a pocket. If you could protect him, he could play in the pocket. There is just a question with Caleb, like can he play within the pocket?

That was a question coming out, like it's not something he's comfortable doing. You don't just get to freelance all the time in the NFL. So it's like one, two, three, get rid of the ball now our his receivers not getting open all the time. Obviously some plays, But I do think there's a legit question of like what offense to make this guy successful? Like I watched Drake Man, It's like, I think that guy could fit in a

lot of offenses. Yeah, you know, I thought Jayden was, like I think he's gonna have to play in like mor of al Lamar style. I'm watching, like, well what Lamar is now? What Lamar was when he was really young, not the version now. And you watch Jayden right now, it's like this guy's awesome in the pocket. So I just think there's question marks on Caleb that you you look at this job like this is why I like Mike Vrabel, Like I'm not looking for Caleb to throw

forty touchdowns anymore. Maybe that's not his game. Let's just kind of go what Pete Carroll did in thirteen and fourteen, like, Hey, we're gonna run the ball, We're gonna have a tough defense, you're gonna play within my system. That's what We're taking the cooking utensils away from your hands.

had one, it would have been a game. Kansas City is not terrible at anything. They're beat up. They're trying to figure out their receiving corps. But because Mahomes is so good and Andy Reid is so clever, it's functional. It makes plays when you have to. I thought this was the game. This was the game I did not pick in Blazing five it was my last pick. I thought Denver had a chance to win today. Same but the takeaway I had beyond Kansas City doing that Bonix.

That final drive thirteen plays a little bit like Rock Purty. You're like, I mean, he had eight different receivers today, twenty two to thirty, two hundred and forty five yards, a couple of touchdowns, great final drive. I think all those college starts, like, I think he may have a lower ceiling, but I think Denver is eight five drafted players away and maybe a free agent signing from being a pain in the ass to people. I think I think Denver's pretty interesting.

Hunt's been an awesome story. There's a big drop off between Jaco and him, huge so and you get him back hopefully in December. It's a broken leg, so you know that that'll be a big boost for them because they're gonna win like this right twenty one to seventeen twenty. But to me, Denver went in there as they should have short week, Kansas City, a little gas, little and they came in ready to win and Bo Nick hit sudden on the on the beautiful touchdown pass. You're like,

there's gonna be the game. I thought, like, you know, as finally the Chiefs just lose twenty eight to fifteen or something, and they just find a way because defensively they're good. Obviously the home crowd is pretty special. But I think Denver this was probably one of their more impressive weeks of the year, even counting their wins, just because like, well, have to see how it breaks out like that. That's seven seed when you look like obviously

the Jets are done. Culture in major trouble. You know, when you look at the AFC Playoff, the Bengals are screwed. You basically have the Steelers and Ravens. You know, one team's gonna win Division. One team's gonna be.

what Kansas City has basically done. They've gotten those ugly remember the start of the year where like Jesus Malmes has like one or two just horrible pick. They've gotten out of that space. The win for Kansas City is harder than you think because of the short week. But I think to your point, I think you looked at Sean Payton and bow Knicks, and I think we could both say he found his Drew Brees. He found his guy. I don't know if he's as good as him, but he found his guy.

it couldn't have gotten much better. It's one of the great Like I mean, we saw one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time last year with CJ. Stroud. I would put Jaden and Daniels right there, toe to toe of like, jeez, it can't be this good, can it. And then you have like Drake May who's on a team that's so but you're watching me.

like he'll figure out the offense. Most teams are not Kansas City to me, I think they get to nine wins and they would be the seventh seed. Now the difference though, is you know, depending on who they play. Right, if you're the seventh seed, you're playing the two seeds, so you're playing Baltimore or Buffalo. Like, no one's betting on Denver. I would say, no one's gonna want to

see the Chargers as the six seeds. Like if you're Baltimore Pittsburgh, that will be a team that like, wait, they're a five point underdog, like who I think Hardball would be a team that people would believe in. Or Denver, there's nothing wrong with it. One and done team in the playoffs, probably like the Commanders and you tip your hat to you feel good.

last week eighteen, Kansas City could be resting guys. At that point, they could be.

the division they're in. It's just a lot harder when you got to play Pittsburgh Baltimore right then they don't get the Raiders. Even Cleveland now throwing in Jamis is a real team with real players. I would much rather play the Raiders in the Browns. So I like that. That was a pretty devastating loss for the Bengals the other night, and that could be the difference why Denver gets the seventh seed in the Bengals end up eight

to nine. I mean, it could just be the different one teams nine and eight, the other team's eight nine. That's it's that big of a difference.

Williams attack the Ravens. Baltimore is one of those teams, and this is rare with a great team, they can outplay you and then get beat by The Raiders can get beat by inferior teams. They're so bad on the back end. And I think Pittsburgh's a real story here. I think it's the Seahawks light Russell's not what's what he was was. But in this rivalry, even a field goal, I'm taking the point Sharper square.

the Ravens defense. And don't forget no Kyle Humphrey in this game, Kyle Humphrey is one of their if not their best defender. And now that secondary is going to be even worse. The overarching theme here and this is the reason why professionals are on it. Don't forget this game opened at three and a half. It is settled

at three. The wise guys are still on it. But look in the regular season, in this game, in this matchup the past twenty years, when the line is three or more, the underdog twenty two, four and three, underdog fifteen to two and one since two thousand and fifteen, in the regular season, when Mike Tomlin fases John Harbaugh, the underdog in this matchup twenty three, six and three, and then you go into Mike Tomlin, the most profitable coach as an underdog in the past twenty years in

the NFL. And by the way, John Harbaugh when he's a favorite is not nearly as good as when he's a dog in this matchup. So there is a matchup reason, and there is also historical reasons to consider the Steelers at plus three.

most aggressive defense in years. I love the Boston College coach. I think he's been a really nice fit for them. Under the radar, low Key really knows his side of the ball. It's five. I would take Green Bay. I know it's a division rivalry game, but good organization. Coach Jordan loves healthier sharper square.

any worse. Whether you believe the players were responsible for getting Shane Waldron fired, DJ Moore said that didn't happen whether you believe that the system can now get a little bit less complex and easier for Kayleb Williams, whether you believe that they're getting two offensive linemen back, which they are and will make him feel more comfortable in

the pocket. This team has been full of chaos, and so the wise guys are betting literally that it cannot get any worse in a division game against their rival at home. The flip side is entirely about what the Packers can do. They have been very opportunistic as a defense this year. A lot of an they cannot rush the passer, but what they can do offensively, and this is where Matt Lafleur has been a genius figure out how to best take advantage of what the Bears are

bad at on defense. The Bears are not a very good rushing defense. We've seen what Matt Lafleor does with someone like Josh Jacobs when he knows he doesn't have Jordan Love, he just figures out creative ways to get the running game in motion. He will likely do that against the Bears.

learned his lesson when he's healthy. He's kind of a fascinating player that's hard to defend because you have nobody in practice that can duplicate. He's a defensive end that plays quarterback. He's a huge, tackle breaking tornado of activity. That's not a great quarterback. But I'm taking the points here all day. Sharper Square.

last week against the Bills at home. And if not from Joe Flacco and three turnovers and if not for getting sacked when it's fourth and inches, I know, if not for, if not for, if not for, then all of a sudden, I'm playing in the NFL. But the point is they ran the ball on the Bills. They had more than one hundred and twenty yards rushing and Jonathan Taylor went from more than one hundred and average five and a half yards per carry, so they were able to do exactly what they wanted to do against

the Bills. The Jets defense from a rushing perspective is worse than the Bills rush defense, and the team overall is much worse than the Bills are. And now you're getting Anthony Richardson back to your point, this is a better opportunity for Shane Steiken to let everybody run with the ball and dominate the Jets, who if you watched last week, against the Cardinals. They were afraid to tackle anybody. This is not a physical defense, and they have gotten

so much worse since Robert Silo was fired. So the line moved down from four to three and a half, from actually from four and a half to four to three and a half, indicating that the wise guys were on the Colts. It's come back a little bit on the on the Jets, and so now it's settled at for the majority of wise guys are with you and they will be on the Colts.

That was not the Rams. They were playing very good. It's a short week. I think New England now are all buyding to Drake May. This Rams defense is really good. Now, Drake May is not toua, He's not. They don't have those weapons. They're not going to listen to. Rams brought some and they got burned on third down because two is a really good NFL quarterback. I'd swallowed the four and a half here take the Ram Sharper square.

I looked at it a little differently. The Rams have five field goals. The Rams red zone this season has been atrocious, and to me, that was sort of the bottoming out right. Every time they got close, it was a sack, it was a botch snap, it was a fumble, it was a mistake. And then there were a couple times defensively. You know, they had that third and twenty five that they gave up, and they gave up a

penalty on that one too. They had another field goal, they made the field goal five yard illegal motion penalty, they moved back, and then all of a sudden they missed the field goal. So to me, it was just it was a game full of bad breaks, bad mistakes. It's a better team. You're getting the much better team in a bounce back spot with a relatively low number.

So I like that. By the way, teams who have been favorites at home and lost and then our favorites the following week on the road about sixty percent the past twenty years against the spread. And by the way, Sean McVeigh short rest fourteen and six against the spread, ten and one in his last eleven games with Matthew Stafford six and one on short rest, Like, I don't understand the move here. It doesn't make any sense to me. So yeah, let's go with the Rams.

which has been pretty pedestrian. Kareem Hunt's not a bad receiver out of the backfield, but he doesn't have any jet fuel anymore. This feels like an obvious one Chiefs plus the points, even though it's not three sharper square.

and it made no sense. This is a little bit like the Steelers where you know what the precedent is. You know Mike Tomlin does this x percent amount of time. That is what we call in the betting business a plus EV plus expected value return on your investment.

Mahomes as an underdog. Okay, his only against the spread loss was against the Bills two years ago, two and a half point underdogs. They lost by four, twenty five and ten straight up twenty six, eight and one in his career against the spread as a favorite of three or fewer points or as an underdog, like, I'm with you, you just don't bet against Patrick Mahomes in the spot if people didn't learn their lesson in the Super Bowl where he was a two and a half point underdog.

If Patrick Mahomes is close, ask yourself this, do you want to be betting against him at the end of the game? Are you going to feel comfortable with that? No, nobody is. And to your point, Kean Coleman out, Amari Cooper out, Kinkaid if he does play is playing with the cast. They're a little banged up on the right side of their offensive line, like there are reasons to be afraid to bet on the Bills beyond Patrick Mahomes.

So yes, this line has come down, by the way to answer the original question, So it's starting to become sharp to bet on the Chiefs.

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my picks. So the Chargers are only minus one and a half and I looked at that number and thought, why that's a funky number. No, it's not the offense. I'm going to take the Bengals plus the points. Here here's why. So they played on Thursday. Now they get it. Not only do they get extra rest, they don't play till Monday. So it's a strange. It's really a lot of extra rest. As I've told you, if you have a great quarterback and an offensive coach, I think that

time matters. The Jets have an old quarterback and an interim coach that extra rest against Arizona didn't matter. But I think Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow and they're already humming and the Chargers. Everybody loves the Chargers. They don't have a ton of downfield weapons. They have very few plus twenty yard plays, so there's a way they have to play to win long drives. Long drives are hard, naltyes fumbles, it's hard to create nine to ten and

eleven play drives. Bengals score quickly, they get freebies. I'm gonna take the points to the Bengals the rest sharper square.

bet against Patrick Mahomes. Do you want to be betting against Joe Burrow who lights out this year, who has an underdog is second only to Patrick Mahomes, and how well he performs amongst this current class of quarterbacks. You don't. The reason why there would be any sentiment in favor of the Chargers right now is because this has been a very strange gambling year. You know, to look Macro here you as a business man, as someone who has

succeeded far beyond just being a media personality. The past two weeks has been earning season for public traded companies, right,

That includes sports betting operators. The two major sports betting operators both had to reduce their revenue expectations for the year because of what they have defined as customer friendly outcomes, meaning there has been hundreds of millions of dollars in reduce revenue because so many favorites are winning this year, so many more than expected, right, And what that means is that teams like the Chargers have been over exceeding

the expectations favorites because they do exactly what you want them to do. They don't make high variant coaching decisions because Harbaught is very consistent. You know what he's going to do. They don't turn the ball over. They're really disciplined, so they don't have the stupid penalties that a lot of other teams have having and those things have been impacting the games in a much wider way than they

have in previous years. So that's why people like the Chargers right now is the Chargers are making people money. But the sharp side in this game are the Bengals.

But bo Nicks and this Denver team, they know they're not a hoisted trophy team, like they know they're going to lose games like this. They have a rookie quarterback, a thin roster, and I think there's value in playing close and out playing the Super Bowl champs. I think they actually come out of that game thinking shit, bo Nicks out played Mahomes. I don't think this is a veteran team that really SAgs and thinks. You know, Buffalo losing to the Chiefs again the following week, you like,

you really have a low energy locker room. I'm going to take Denver here. Tell me why I'm right or wrong.

Respect the theory, but I felt like at the end of the game, New Orleans scored three points in the second half, the Falcons missed multiple field goals, including a field goal that could have tied the game with six minutes left. They had a very unlucky game. And now you got Kirk Cousins, who just historically is great against the spread, great straight up coming off a loss. I really like the the Falcons have been running the ball. Bijon has been a different level of player than he

was in his rookie season. He's showing all the things that everyone was excited about, receding out of the backfield, his ability to run away from tacklers, the ability to run people over. I then thought about, Okay, two and a half feels high. You know, it feels like you're overvaluing the Broncos and their ability to and what they did against the Chiefs, And I, like you, I felt like the chief the Broncos walk away that of that game against the Chiefs and be like, we're emboldened. I

would not be crushifyed with them at all. I'd be going into a thinking, Wow, we can hang like we are a really good team. And you and I have talked about this where Sean Payton has done with bo Nicks, talk about the opposite of Caleb Williams right like he has basically throwing the book at him and gotten him better and better and better every single week. And that Falcons defense, they don't pressure Anybody going to look at this and be like are they even playing defense? Is

anybody trying to come after me? Because of the difference between how aggressive the Chiefs are. So I'm having a hard time finding the winner in this one. I don't I'm probably not going to bet it. I don't have a strong opinion. The wise guys don't really have a strong opinion on this either. They lean Denver. But you're not seeing people running to the window saying, I got to get a ticket on the Broncos.

nobody on it. So Kevin Stefanski builds a game plan where he's basically just handing the ball to Nick Chubb behind what if it had been healthy from the beginning of the year, would have been a top five offensive line, and you've got a top five defensive line going against Derek Carr, who, when he's not pressured, as we saw against the Falcons, can be a really good quarterback, and when he is pressured basically becomes one of the most

losing quarterbacks in NFL history. So how am I not vetting the Browns after the Saints basically just won their Super Bowl. This was the game they had to win. I will not bet on the Saints again this year. That was a one time thing. Now I'll bet the Browns. And by the way, the wise guys have been betting the Browns. The line open to two and a half, down to two, one and a half one, now it's a half. There are a lot of places where the Browns it's going to flip and they're going to be favorite.

So if you want to get it, get it now.

and any injuries. I also wonder, Look Trent Williams, who we love and is a dominant offensive lineman and one of the best in the NFL. He missed all a training camp and he's old, So you got to ask yourself, all right, did that actually have more of an impact. They aren't as dominant an offensive line. They already weren't a great offensive line going into the season, and what Kyle Shanahan's schemes usually masks that deficiency less so this year.

So I don't have any opinion on this. Meanwhile, the Seahawks like they just waive their leading tackler. I think they're still trying to figure out who they are defensively, so I'm going to pass on this game.