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The Broncos at Home is a favorite, winning forty one thirty two, three picks two pick six is against Jamis Winston with the Broncos. Win Bo Nicks is now the first quarterback ever to go six and zero. Is a favorite in his rookie season. So and I look at him now. They're eight and five Denver in the seventh seed. They get a bye, perfect time for a buye to get healthy, awful win in a good mood, and then they host a Colts team that can struggle to move the football. So this this was my pick for the
most underrated team in the league, the Denver Broncos. It was not just Sean Payton, but of course Sean Payton was part of it. He's a great coach, you know, take out Andy Reid. Honestly, take out Andy Reid. Who's the best coach.
In the league.
Jim Harbaugh, Sean Payton, I mean, Kyle Shannan's having, you know, every few years, a rough year. So Sean Payton in one season turned around the worst franchise maybe in my life, the New Orleans Saints. And he's doing it, you know, in year two with the Denver Broncos eight and five. You know, And what's interesting is I want to talk about Jameis Winston. Jamis is a combination of a multitude of things. He didn't have great judgment, but he's wildly talented, so there was a beautiful football.
You know.
He threw almost sixty times tonight, two pick six's, and he makes bad throws. He's a combination of consistently productive but inconsistent as not many people like him. If he was a baseball player, he'd be like Adam Dunn or Dave Kingman, home runner, strikeout. But I've always liked watching him play because he's just he'll always do something. He's just incredibly entertaining to watch, and he's got a weird personality. But like players like him. He's probably the best quarterback
in the NFL that I would never build around. But if he's a backup, he's the best backup by a mile in the league, by a mile. Winston is a little like that bachelor party in Vegas with the guys. It's a lot of fun, but there's gonna be some really bad judgment and you'll probably end up regretting it. That's that's Jameis Winston's career. He is a good time, but you look back and think, humhm, what were we thinking? That was a little dangerous. I wouldn't do that again.
And he's he's a little.
Bit the opposite of boon Nicks, whereas bo Nicks, I think has great judgment, has a lower ceiling, actually runs. It's more athletic than Jameis Winston doesn't quite have Jamis's arm. But again, like on that final drive, you this, the comp to Drew Brees is so perfect. On that final drive, you know, bow knicks four or five fifty eight yards sets up for the field goal. They take the lead, a couple of big throws to Courtland. Sutton, by the way,
now has two fourth quarter comebacks this year. How many is Aaron Rodgers have? That, by the way, is more than Herbert Allen Russ Rodgers Burrow commined, So he's and the editor thing, did you see Sean Payton regularly two different opportunities having him drop back in the end zone with a good Cleveland pass rush. So Sean Payton trusts his judgment. Just when I see Bonicks play, what I see is confidence. I mean, he had a pick down the field. He'll he's not a dink and dunker, He'll
throw the ball down the field. Plays with a ton of confidence and just the way he throws the ball. He I saw him play in college twice live, ten to fifteen times on TV minimum, and I honestly feel like his arm is better as a pro. Is the altitude in Denver where everything travels further, from a golf ball to a fly ball to a pass. It just looks like his arm is just a little bit strong, longer than it was in college. And you know, I just when I watched Denver, I said this in the offseason.
They've got too many good players, you know, even the receiving court A Mims of Franklin's got some talent. Courtland sometton I've liked forever. Their running backs are capable. Bowls is an elite left tackle. They ran the football tonight. There's just not a lot I don't like about him. It's a quarterback coach league, and they've got weapons. They've got a pass rusher, they got a left tackle, they got a coach in a quarterback.
We say this all the time.
Remember when the Rams surprised everybody last year, And I said McVeigh, Stafford, Cooper cup Cooka Nakua, Like, if you have the coach, the quarterback, weapons, a left tackle and a pass rusher, You're gonna be good in this league. And so they check a lot of boxes, and I think Bonnick's having so many college starts, you're just ready to play. Now we may be seeing his ceiling. This may be it. But if this is it, you can you can get to a conference championship with this, with
Sean Payton's coaching. And remember this is probably the leanest roster bo Knicks will ever play with. I mean, they're going to have Russell Wilson's cap hit is still part of the equation, but it's much lower next year and after that you're home free. So you know, I'm just I'm looking at bow Knicks on third down tonight, seven for eleven hundred and fifty six passing yards and a touchdown thrown from the end zone, final drive to win it,
fourth quarter, come from behind, excellent on third down. They got their guy and throw this out there. Rookie quarterbacks against Jim Schwartz, the Browns coordinator. Entering tonight, we're eight eighteen and one and bo Nix beat him. It's a real thing, man, And so you know, I was thinking about that today, like Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, can both play out of that recruiting class. Bow Nick can play, Drake May can play. Caleb Williams has real talent, Jayden
Daniels can play. The hit rate on first round quarterback to me, feels like it's going up. Even Mac Jones, who was a miss, had one good year, right Like, even the misses these days feel like they can play a little bit. So I think I think kids come in more mature. I think they come in with a lot more snaps and special tutoring and so, you know, it was just getting a lot of hits in this quarterback class. And I still think JJ McCarthy. I know
it was just preseason, but he looked good. And Michael Pennox, I think is going to be behind that Atlanta offensive line. With Drake London in pretty good running game, I think he's gonna be fine. So forty one to thirty two, you know. And I wrote a couple of notes here when you look at the Cleveland Browns, one of the things I think is such a strength of the NFL that to Shaun Watson contract is the worst in the history of the league, there's no.
Doubt about it.
But yet teams can go find a Baker Mayfield on his third or fourth team, a Sam Darnold at Jamis Winston. The quarterback coaching is better right than ever. Guys are rehabbing. Geno Smith could win the division. I mean, you're just seeing so many second and third acts, and I think a lot of that is quarterback coaching. There's so many good young coaches out there. I mean, you all thought, we all thought, basically Gino Smith was done. You know,
I'm watching him spine. You know, Jamis Winston I thought was done like four years ago. He was such an odd bird. But I you know, I it's I love to see when these young quarterbacks hit. And I can remember before the season I had talked to I think I think it was Mark Sanchez said to me. He said, don't be surprised if bo Nix has the best season as a rookie. He said, Caleb, Drake May and Jaden Daniels have defensive coaches, so it's going to depend on
the coordinator. The sensibility of the franchise is going to be in Denver, highly efficient and very aggressive offensively, like a constant tutor of Sean Payte. He said, that's going to be such an an advantage plus the sixty one college start. So I think it was Mark Sanchez who told me that. He said, Bonex is gonna pop. It's going to take him a few weeks, which it did first couple of weeks. The game's fast, But I think
Denver's a real team. And again it goes back to components. Coach, quarterback, pass rusher, weapon, left tackle, elite corner. Those check all the boxes. This to me, Denver could absolutely, even as a road team, go win a playoff game. Can they win two in the AFC? I don't know if they can, but they can win a playoff game, no doubt in my mind.
And I think, you know it's this year? Is it me?
Or have the standalone games been really really good this year? You know, when the schedules came out before the season, I noticed the Amazon Prime games, I thought it was the best Amazon Prime games. And I basically look at a game and think, is that our at least one elite quarterback.
If it is, I'll watch.
And we've had some really good standalone games on Sunday Night, Monday Night Football, Thursday Night football. And the speaking of quarterbacks, I was thinking about this yesterday. I think Bryce Young. Now over the last five if you go to the last five games Bryce Young and c J. Stroud, if you'd never seen him play before, you could argue Bryce Young is every bit as good or better than c J.
Stroud, and he's working with a lot less.
So again, the quarterback coaching these guys come in was more snaps. Not everybody hits at the same pace. I Sean Payton and Boonex were ready to be really good really quickly. You know, Kayla Williams and Chicago's going to take some work. They got to get the right coach. But Broncos are eight and five, another win a bye, they host the Colts, and I think it's the team capable of winning the playoffs because you know this year, I mean, the one team in the AFC which doesn't
appear to have any flaws is Buffalo. You know, Kansas City is pretty shaky offensive tackle and the receiving core is in you know, a group in the making, Baltimore bat on the back end, Justin Tucker Now, a liability at kicker chargers, not dynamic enough at playmaker. Now, they got running backs banged up, so everybody feels like they're just a little off Buffalo is the exception. So to me, Denver can play with anybody outside of I wouldn't. I wouldn't trust him to go to Buffalo in a cold
weather game and win. I think they get out man there. But I think they could go to Pittsburgh. I think bo Nix is better now than he was two months ago. I think they could go to Pittsburgh and compete two really good defenses, the offensive coach against Mike Tomlin. That's a little bit of an edge, you know, playing as an underdog. Pittsburgh's great as an underdog, not as great as a favorite. I think Denver could go to a Pittsburgh and win a playoff game. Wouldn't be favored, probably
be a three or four point dog. But again, you know, Sean Payton is an underdog. Bow Knicks has shown late game expertise. It's a real team. So my herd hierarchy, I have to send my herd hierarchy. I think Denver's going to be I think there's only four teams I feel can win the Super Bowl today, Philly, Detroit, Kansas City, Buffalo. I think Pittsburgh's close, and I think Green Bay is really close. Denver's going to make the herd hierarchy somewhere.
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All right, I only get to see Danny Parkins because of our active schedules for about one a month for about an hour.
So it's all it's fun for me.
Danny course on Breakfast Ball Big Radio DURN, Chicago that we scooped up at FS one. So and I want you to think about this for a second. There are things, especially in sports that I noticed because we're both in this business, that you wonder why they haven't taken place sooner, and then over the course of time, like if you really think about analytics, why did it take so long for NBA gms to figure out math. It's like, this
was like, it's what happened? Did a slide ruler fall into a GM's office and he had doodling one day with time? It's so, here's one of them. I believe, exits the smartest people I've met did not always go to great schools or have great childhoods. In fact, I would argue, if there's a certain jet fuel to chaos as a child that propels you to aspirational life.
Right and.
At any one time in the history of the NFL, there's about five rockstar coaches, and right now it's you know, Sean Payton took Chernobyl and two years later they're going to make the playoffs with the rookie quarterback. And you know Dead cap Hell, Jim Harbaugh, Andy Reid. You know, there's a handful. I think McVeigh and Shanahan fall into that group. And Pro Football Talks suggested the Bear should call Kyle Shanahan, and I'm just gonna throw this out exens.
So Kyle Shanahan is smart. He has a losing record in San Francisco as a head coach without Christian McCaffrey, who is now into the twilight of his career. Hurt a lot in Carolina, more so in San Francisco. He is staring down the barrel of signing Brock pretty injured for the second time, to a big deal. It is an old, expensive, brittle roster, and he has the least talented quarterback and here are the Bears good roster. He'd get power quarterbacks free for four years. He's got weapons,
actually a decent back, and it's a restart. And you'd say to yourself why, Because just like San Francisco, San Francisco was a dead franchise held The Warriors were a dead franchise for years.
But the minute they.
Got good, people are like oh Rick Barry, Chris Mullen. Certain franchises are dead. The New York Giants are. The Bears feel like they are. But again, the Warriors were, the Niners were. Chicago is a massive football brand, and to be the savior of it in an offensive era, I said this today, I would absolutely say, here's three first round picks. We got our quarterback. I don't need that.
Here we go, Kyle Shanahan. I think staring down the barrel of Christian McCaffrey's age Brock pretty getting the bag an old, expensive roster with a lot of debo, and I you questions.
I think he takes the call. Am I nuts?
No, You're not nuts, But I mean he you don't really trade with him, right, like the Niners to trade? Yeah, so like that do the not because Kyle Shanahan maybe is interested in the exit, but are the Niners interested in it? Like I would absolutely say the Bears get the twelfth pick in the draft. Of course, I would trade the twelfth pick in the draft for Kyle Shanahan. Like it's not even yes, of course the guy. The guy took Jimmy Garoppolo to a Super Bowl, he took
Brock Party to a Super Bowl. I'm thinking he could do wonders with Caleb Williams, Like I want a known commodity. It would be amazing.
Uh. I'd call the Rams and ask about Sean McVay.
Absolutely, I hire an offensive coach, the most proven one that you can find to develop and stabilize for Caleb Williams. However they have to go about getting that. I'd be all four. The Niner situation is an interesting one. They still have a ton of talent on the roster. It's
old and brittle and expensive. Like you said, I don't think it's a disaster like I think if you asked a Vegas odds maker, Hey, what are the preseason Super Bowl favorites for next year, I'd be shocked if the Niners were outside of the top six in terms of preseason odds. We don't know are they going to pay debo. We don't know if Trent Williams is going to come back. But like, they got a lot of talent still on that team, and they had a freaky amount of injuries.
So I don't know if he looks at it as dire as you do. I hope he does, because the Bears have no evidence that they can just conduct a search and hire the right trum. They have no evidence of it. They use a search firm, had Ernie A. Corsi consult them on John Fox, and then they had a general manager draft Mitch Trubisky without telling John Fox that that was going to happen, and then they made
John Fox coach Mitch Trubisky. Like it's so dysfunctional for so long in that hiring firing, Like thirty thousand foot view part of the organization that if Kevin Warren and Ryan Poles, the president and GM go the trade for a coach route.
They've never done it before, so I'm in for it.
And then just one thing to your point, Chicago, I've said this to you before. It's unified by the Bears. The eighty five Bears still have media deals. They still drink for free. Mike Ditka and I know he was a cult of personality, but I mean the guy made tens of millions of dollars from merchandising. I mean he was on ESPN for forever. He had cigars, he had wine, he had restaurants, he had video games, he had everything from being the coach of the Bears who won the
Super Bowl. So it matters when you win a Super Bowl everywhere. But a parade in Chicago would be different than a parade in Los Angeles or Cincinnati. So I would think a lot of coaches who currently have jobs, not just Ben Johnson or Cliff Kingsbury. I would think a lot of coaches. If the Bears are in the markets trade for a coach, I think a lot of coaches would call their agents and say, Hey, can I get on that list.
So one of the things I like about This is the exploration of different things. So I'll ask you about UFOs later, but I want to.
Start with this. Hell yeah.
So a lot of times there's certain things I try to be careful of. Recency bias as a talk show host. Don't over don't get hyperbolic on something because it happened today, confirmation bias. Don't like something because I predicted it, and I think about those two all the time. Don't do that. That's what fans do.
I get it.
I'm not a fan, right, I'm not paid to be a fan. The other thing is, don't let singular moments define somebody. So Matt Ryan in the Super Bowl had a really bad second half and people now think, you know, he was never clutch. What the truth is, he is thirty eight come from behind fourth quarter wins. He's actually not that far off Brady, Montana, Elway and Mahomes as one of the great come from behind quarterbacks in the last well, I mean a forever thirty eight.
Ever, it's unbelievable, but you see this, I did not know that that's a big number.
Aaron Rodgers. Conversely, because of the Jared Cook completion down the sideline against the Cowboys, in one of the great throws ever. I mean, it's up there with David Tyree and Eli. It's one of the great playoff throws ever. People view him as a great comeback quarterback. He's actually dreadful. He's got fewer than Ryan Tannehill, significantly fewer than Russell Wilson. Matt Ryan has thirty eight. He has twenty two this year. We've watched six, five or six times. He's not good.
He gets very, very tight. And why would this be. He's so talented And I have a lot of beliefs on Aaron Rodgers' personality, but generally quarterbacks who are not good late it's because they get tight. And I think Aaron has been elevated because of the esthetic appeal. Marino had this the aesthetic.
Appeal of how beautiful he threw the ball.
That he's never been a grinder, and he's kind of an ad lib a little bit. He doesn't grind in the offseason. He relies like Marino did, on his esthetic athleticism, the beauty of it. I mean, he literally throws the ball and he's not on the ground like you ever seen those passes where his feet aren't touching the ground.
And the truth is the prep quarterbacks.
Brady Matt Ryan was a legendary quarterback, Drew Brees, Mahomes, Russell Wilson. I meant Mike Tomlin saying today the dude loves football. You can't get Hi out of the Sellets football.
Is that Aaron has been the reason.
It doesn't make any sense that he'd be great all the time. He's not a good fourth quarter quarterback. And I think it's because that is grinder territory. Bo Nicks, by the way, is already classic grinder, a little smaller than you want, doesn't have the He's already an outstanding
fourth quarter quarterback. And so there's my take is that this Aaron Rodgers dot comes out and it's just very funny how we view him as this legendary late game quarterback and it's been on display this year with a dysfunctional organization.
He's actually bad at it.
Yeah, so I would be very interested in act parsing the data on like number of opportunities. Is it at all possible that Aaron Rodgers has had fewer opportunities than you would expect because he's so damn good and his team was always winning.
Russell Wilson and Seattle didn't trail much and he has three percent more.
Okay, yeah, fair enough, Rogers, you and I I definitely fall for the aesthetic of it.
Aaron Rodgers won four MVPs some of Aaron Rodgers's peak until Mahomes came along.
I would always say it was the best I'd ever seen, and it was better than Brady and it was better than Manning. Not more accomplished or anything like that, but just guy had a forty five touchdown six interception season, like it was just stupid. His ability to be a big game hunter, hunt for touchdowns, throw the ball down the field and not turn the ball over like Aaron Rodgers at his peak of his powers is still about as good as ever, and I think crazy influential.
Like you mentioned.
Mahomes, Mahomes is a a combination of the two. Right, Mahomes has the from the pocket Andy Reid extension, brilliant snap throw, diagnose everything football guy, and then also can throw a ball horizontal to the ground basically like submarine style through three dudes. And You're like, I don't think
I think a robot made that throw. So like Mahomes is stylistically, I actually think very similar to Aaron Rodgers, but he has this like weird combination of both, which is why he's the most talented to ever do it. I think that the explanation with the Jets is simpler than that. I mean, the guy's old. One guy has been good at his age ever and it was Tom Brady won ever. And Aaron Rodgers has other interests and the Jets are really dysfunctional, and he's coming off of
a very serious injury. And you know, maybe the Jets bring him back next year. I wouldn't if I were them, I'd eat the forty nine millions, spread it out over two years and just be done with the nonsense in the circus and draft a quarterback and move on. And if they do that, can you name a team that would sign him? I said the Raiders?
Maybe?
Yes, like like the Raiders maybe intrigue tough division, have no shot to win it. You draft a quarterback, you sign Aaron Rodgers. You hope that Rogers has the quarterback sit behind him and has like a Jordan Love situation. Maybe do you have an organization that would pay Aaron Rodgers to play feoball next year?
It's funny because Brady now is going to be part of the Raiders ownership group, so Mark Davis would rely on Brady's opinion on that and don't. I'm not going to speak for Tom, but I don't think he holds Aaron in the regard that fandom does. I think Tom sees a guy that relied heavily on talent and didn't put Brady's obsessive Peyton Manning Breeze's obsessive compulsion to work. I think within Brady.
Has to be just disgusted that Aaron Rodgers has other interests. You hosted Jeopardy, you travel.
In the off season, you do experimental drugs, and by the way.
That trailer, like I'll watch the documentary, but that trailer of him saying I love science or I love silence while being miked up and filmed is one of.
The most unintentionally hilarious things ever.
Like, Buddy, you've got like a camera crew and a sound guy and.
You're miked up, but you're doing a darkness retreat.
It's just so he's such a oh he says enigma, I don't know, or you're just a pseudo intellectual who loves attention and has a massive ego.
It's just it's so funny to me the as we do what we do. Living.
Yeah, I've never been a really envious person, but as I've aged, there are some things in our business that feel like sometimes minutia, like doing shows in July. In the last year, for the first time, I took like three weeks off in July. I said, guys, it's.
By the way, thank you because I hosted for you July eighth and ninth, and I think it changed my life, so.
So please do that again.
So the reason July and August have gotten less interesting are cultural changes. I believe Sean McVay said I'm not playing any of my good players in the preseason, and everybody said.
You're nuts.
You'll start off oh to eight, and he started eight and oh, and then everybody went, I think he's got it. And so now the preseason is utterly charmless. There is nothing interesting about it at all. Therefore, those three to four weeks, and they've shortened it from four to three weeks, well probably be shortened to two weeks. And August is dead. It's regular season baseball. A lot of the you know as the gap between the good and the terrible, and
Major League Baseball widens. The races are settled, you know, the good teams are resting pitchers, and you know, so it's a little minutia. So sometimes I think the audience thinks we do things just for ratings. Of course we do right. Ratings and revenue drive our entire existence. But I was I was sitting there day and I was thinking about the cyclical nature, and I took a calendar out, and I thought, here are the busy times, here the
slow times, And I found, like six weeks. If I could ideally take six weeks off a year, six to eight, here.
Where they were.
And one of the things that was interesting is that in my lifetime only one sport has been created, UFC that literally becomes part of my life. I'm now watching UFC. I watched college Pro, NBA March Madness Golf Tournament's tennis, I watched all Now soccer is more popular, but I was watching the United States men's and women's national teams twenty.
Five years ago. I didn't care.
So UFC is now the one created sport. A lot of it's just a force of nature, force of personality of Dana White, like renting an Island during COVID just it really sums up who he is. But I was sitting there and I said, you know what, Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese has a magic bird feel to it. And I said, I talked about it ten times this year, and I monitor my ratings and the ratings people dug it. It was often my first or second highest rented segment. And I said, I think it's going to become I
never thought this in a million years. Hell, the teams don't make any money WNBA. But I'm like, well, do I have to cover the league? No, I'm going to cover Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese. I don't cover boxing, but about three times a year there's a fight in the seventies, eighties, and nineties and you'd say, okay, here's Ali Foreman. We would before I got into this business.
And I know a lot of.
People will push back and go that's very PC. But outside of UFC, I am convinced that Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese will be a decade long potential story as long as both teams are viable.
Is that a reach?
Is that recency bias?
No?
I don't think so.
Listen one of the all time great Colin Cowhard analogies is that you're in the omelet business, not the egg business. I love that line. I think it's so good. You're like, my job isn't to make you interesting. I talk about you when you become interesting. I loved that line from you, And so they are interesting. The data supports it, and it has a lot of things. Listen, frankly, some of
it's ugly, right, there's racial components, there's sexism components. Like some of the stuff that came back on it was pretty ugly. But at its core, I always say, rivalries are awesome. Yeah, rivalry, That's that's why Steelers Ravens gets you your juices flowing a little bit, Bears, Packers, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Cardinals, Celtics, Lakers.
We like it.
We like rivalries because I want less hate in the world and more hayen sports and so like, a healthy amount of hate is okay to me. Like, I don't want there to be riots, but I wasn't like clutching my pearls over flag planting, you know, I'm like, it's kind of funny, Like it's kind of funny that a two win team plants a flag at midfield and then they pushing the show and it goes the other way.
When you're pepper spraying college kids, I'm like, that's ridiculous, and I understand that I'm flirting in a gray area there on advocating something, and then when it gets too far, I'm like, well that's too far. Sorry, call me a hypocrite. I like a little bit of trash talk in my sports. I'm gonna do something on breakfast Ball tomorrow. I don't think taunting should be a penalty in the NFL on sportsmanlike conduct. If you punch a guy, you spit any
guy's face, fine, unnecessary roughness, the same thing. Delay a game, say thing taunting. Let them trash talk and figure it out. I'm cool with it. I'll make the case tomorrow on the show. That's a meandering way to get to Rivalries are awesome and star power celebrity. It dates back to college familiarity.
We know it.
And then there's also this, and you could speak to this. You've been in the game longer than I have. People like to be a part of something that is growing, right, like the World Series. The number was big, it was as good as it could have been Yankees and Dodgers, Otani, Judge, Sodo, et cetera. But like if baseball got that number thirty years ago, they would have been appalled. And so like the general trend of baseball is down in terms of ratings from where it was.
The WNBA the era is going up.
People like growth stories, Right, how many companies have you invested in or talked to their CEOs out there in California where it's like, we don't even need to show profit, we just need to show that we're growth and more users and all of that stuff. So I think that's the netflicks for years, for almost all of them, for years, you know, like the line in David Fincher's The Social Network, like don't you're throwing a cool party? You know, a
million dollars isn't cool? You know it is a billion dollars, Like don't don't take an ad when you got on one hundred college campuses. Wait until you're in one hundred countries and then do it right, like lose money, keep getting your funding, and then cash in big at the end. So I don't know how big the WNBA can get, That's right, I don't like I do have some skepticism on how big it can get as as.
A whole league teams.
Caitlin Clark not rooting for it, obviously, but like say she tears her acl in the second week of the season, I think that'd be real bad for interest for the sport for that season.
Right.
I think it's carried by a very few pockets of stars right now. But will it be more popular in five years than it is today? Yes, Like it is clearly a growth enterprise, and I think that that is also a really popular phenomenon. Like people like to be a part of something early in on the grounds or I knew this band before they got on the tes feel smart? Yes, Oh when when did you sign up for Blue Sky? Like you know what I mean. Like it's happening right now. We'll see maybe Blue Sky will
be a huge thing in two years. Maybe it will be like what was Blue Sky again? But so I don't know where it ends for the WNBA, but I am absolutely positive Caitlin Clark will be a story ten years from now. She will bring the league with her and that is good business because it's growth. Even if Yankees Dodgers outrates the WNBA championship like it's just one's going up the others going down, So therefore it it is seen as a cooler thing to be a part of.
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and I take as its customary. I take Thanksgiving off. It's a short week, it's weird. I tend to like favorites in those big spots. Although the Bear should have beaten the Lions. You never know what's going to happen this week. It's interesting. So last week I would have bet a lot of underdogs. This week a lot of I like a lot of favorites. Don't give you an example.
Is I.
Really like the Bills minus at one point four now minus three and a half at the Rams. Matt Stafford's beat up. Buffalo is getting healthier on defense. Buffalo is a really good team. They have two things now that travel. One of them is a run game, which is why they used to be. If you watch Buffalo through the years, they were a little hot and cold when they got out of their element because they didn't have a run game. Defenses and run games travel. This has become a very
consistent team. The Rams, meanwhile, have not run as well because of some online injuries, and they're wildly half to half inconsistent. I like the Bills minus four or three and a half sharper square.
Colin. This is why the Favorites is on the Volume podcast network. You just summarized exactly what Simon and I have been saying about this game in our shows this week, and we surprised ourselves. You said couple things about favorites. We like a lot of favorites this week, and we loved underdogs last week, and it's surprising us that the Bills are one of those teams. The Bill's number has been bouncing four to three and a half, four to three and a half. At four, the wise guys are
generally buying the Rams. At three and a half, they're taking the Bills again. But you could also just as easily find people in professional ranks who like the Bills at minus four. I can't add anything to the analysis you just said. It's exactly why there is a consistency to this team that hasn't been there in the past. The run game is dominant, The Rams rush defense is not very good. The Rams are not just inconsistent half to half. They're inconsistent series to series. You can see
it against the Saints. You saw it the week before where they barely beat the Patriots, like they have a couple great series and then they disappear for full quarters of the game. Last week, it's the safe they can score in the first half. So your handicap is exactly exactly right. The one thing that is worrying professional betters here is the Bills just beat the Chiefs, then they just beat the Niners, and out of this they got to go play the Steelers like they're in a gauntlet
right now. This is a classic letdown spot. I don't think that'll be the case, because I do think that what you just said about running game and defense travels. I'm a big believer in he who owns the line of scrimmage owns the spread. So I'm giving you a seventy five sharp, not gins you knife sharp, but sharp.
Here's another favorite I like. So I think this is one of the biggest coaching missmatches of the week. Miami minus five and a half against the Jets. When Robert Sala left the building, they lost their only elite football coach. It is a bad staff. It is a quarterback that has not regressed to Kirk Cousins level last week, but has regressed. Aaron is not a top fifteen quarterback. Miami has to win. They're at home. I think it's an excellent coaching staff with some limitations North with Tua. You
get Tua back home five and a half. If you told me one game's a blowout this week, I mean I'm watching. I'm watching the Jets blow games to Denver and Seattle at home. Let's not forget what Miami is. North against green Bay short week. That was one of the easy bets of the year. Come home, superior staff. I think they hammer the Jets sharper square.
So it's square. But I'll tell you what you're right And like Miami is one of the biggest bets I've made this weekend. It's one of the biggest bets Simon has made this weekend. I can't understand the move on this. It's gone from seven to six and a half to six. In some places, you're saying five and a half, Like it makes no sense. It makes no sense that professional money keeps coming in on the Jets, and it's been happening literally every single week. The last time the Jets
were underdogs was Week six against the Bills. They were one and a half point underdogs, and that line moved in their favor like if the game had been twenty four hours later, it might have been pick. And it's not like their favorites against bad teams. They were favorites against Houston, they were favorites against Arizona, they were favorites against Pittsburgh. Like it. This is a bad team since Robert Sala was fired as coach thirty first in EPA for play like, they are a very very bad football
team right now. Aaron Rodgers is not mobile. And you're looking at a Dolphins team you just said with Tua when they're home and they're playing a bad team. So a team that has a winning percentage of two fifty or less, which is what the Jets have to seven and one against the spread in his career, this is not a team that underperforms against bad teams. This is
when they actually do their best. So I'm with you, and like, all I would say is, if you like the Dolphins, you might want a way to beat because the line might continue to move. The Jets get big money every single Sunday. It is astonishing. I don't understand it.
Let me throw you another favorite. Kansas City at home minus four against the Chargers. So there are certain teams that match up with Kansas City teams that can beat them down the field. Denver, for instance, Mims Courtland Sutton can force them to be more honest. Okay, the Chargers lack playmakers and now the ones they have are Hurt Lad mcconkey's hurt JK.
Dopp.
There is no pop and that allows Spags to be even more aggressive when you play a Buffalo. I think Denver's one of these teams that I don't think we get how good they are. They can really punish you down the field. The Chargers can't. This is a bad spot for a dinged up Chargers team. Kansas City minus four is my second third favorite pick of the weekend.
Sharper Square totally sharp and it's rare that the wise guys would come in on Kansas City as a plus a field go favorite in the division against a team like the Chargers, which historically you get a team like the Chargers. They're physical at the line of scrimmage, they have a really good coach, the quarterback doesn't make mistakes. That's what you want to bet on if you're a professional.
Better against a very public team like the Kansas City Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes in his career as a favorite of three or more is historically under five hundred against the spread about forty five forty six percent. But what's happening here is exactly what you said. Ever since JK. Dobbins went out against the Ravens at the end of that first half, the Chargers have not been able to move the ball. Justin Herbert had been using play action considerably more since he came back from the by and
his high ankle spray had improved. That's because JK. Dobbins was in the backfield. He was able to pull linebackers up. He was able to get more throwing windows, specifically to
Lad McConkie and to Will Disley. Right JK. Dobbins goes out, they lose all downfield passing ability against the Ravens, and then last week they only had fifty six yard rushing yards rushing against the Falcons in a game that they easily could have lost if Kirk Cousins wasn't doing his own Southern version of Aaron Rodgers, so it's a real tricky spot for them. JK. Dobbins still out. Lad McConkie limited in practice this week with continuing shoulder injury and
now a new injury to his knee. I agree with you. The wise guys agree with you. The Chiefs meanwhile, they may start DJ Humphries, which would be an incredible improvement at left tackle. They had three guys on the injury report out of Wednesday. All of them were full participants in practice. They had a little bit of a mini buy. I think they'll recognize that they've been plateauing a little bit and get an opportunity to get healthy. The wise guys agree with you very sharp.
So I'm going to give you one more favorite and they'll go into some underdogs. So the Raiders played ten rookies. They're beat up and they're just playing kids, and they play hard, but disappointing loss after disappointing loss. Tampa meanwhile played poorly and won. I love teams that play poorly and win. The following week, Sean payton Alis told me it's always the best week of practice. You can dog cuss them all week, but they're happy because they won.
Tampa's good team. Jason Light's always been able to stack this roster, Baker, Mayfield and Sam Darnold. We have to be honest. Now they can play when you give them the right coach. It can be a Liam Cohen, it can be a Kevin O'Connell. Guys can sling it. They're good. Tampa is playing. They have to beat Atlanta outright, because Atlanta beat them twice. So these are playoff games for Tampa.
The Raiders are playing kids. They're sitting there, Antonio Pearson, Tom Tolesco, They're looking at film, they're trying to judge. They're already on the next year. I know it's six and a half, but I like the Bucks sharper square.
So it's square but square.
Because of the number it moved from seven to six and a half. I think the wise guys continue to want to play the Raiders when into big number. They feel like the Bucks will continue to let teams that aren't as good stay in it. Baker, as much as he's balling out and I think has earned a lot of respect from fans, from media, from his teammates, he's still prone to make mistakes. We saw it against the Panthers two critical interceptions. So this is really about the number.
It's not about anything on the field. They're just looking at and saying seven fields like inflation for the Bucks.
I'd like to say I like this underdog. I really don't, but it's screaming at me. So I think the Steelers are going to beat the Browns, but I don't think Jamis Winston is going to have another two pick six game. And frankly, in a division rivalry, Cleveland matches up with Pittsburgh. Hell, they matched up and had Denver I thought beat. I think Cleveland's got a good roster and a really good coach.
Six and a half.
Seems to me the number should be three and a half, four and a half. I'm gonna take Cleveland plus six and a half. Sharper square, totally sharp. This shouldn't even be a question. Everything that you're sort of half in on is one hundred percent right.
Number one. This is a division game in the AFC North. These games always tend to be closer than what the spread should be, and favor the underdog. Also, Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin as an underdog is brilliant. It is a raw rab Mike Tomlin spot when he is on the road as an underdog. When he is at home as an underdog, he is the most profitable coach as an underdog this generation the past twenty years, often winning times
straight up. Forget about just covering the spread. As great as he is as an underdog is as ineffective he is as a favorite. Now he's a six and a half point favorite. We're talking about forty five percent against the spread in similar scenarios throughout his career. And look, Jamis is one of those guys. Last week I loved the Broncos because Jamis was so good the week before. I tend to want to fade Jamis after he's been great.
And while it took two pick sixes and an interception in the end zone to get there, what we expected to happen with Jamis is exactly what happened when Jamis is off of a loss, that is, when he is great against the spread. And I do think that there has to be some kind of aggression on Russell Wilson's ability to throw these moonballs and consistently have them caught in crazy, crazy circumstances. So the wise guys are with you. Take the Browns plus six and a half.
So a game, there's a game every week. I say, hey, I just want to ask you about and I looked at the Falcons plus six Minnesota. Kirk Cousins was He looked like if Justin Verlander threw an eighty one mom hour fastball. What am I watching? Is it an injury in the last two weeks. Something's off. So older players get hurt more. They play with pride and play through injuries. Aaron Rodgers' stories, you've heard about Kirk Cousins. This is
just screaming take the Vikings. But again, Atlanta is playing to win the division. Kirk Cousins can't play like that. Again, the protection will be good. Kirk can handle Brian Flores coverages. He's seen everything.
Tell me where I'm supposed to go with that number, Minnesota.
This number has been moving up. The only concern you should have is that you're not getting the best of the number. Because it opened at five, it went to five and a half streaming towards six. I disagree that Kirk Cousins can handle what Brian Flores is going to throw at him. Brian Flora's defense is exactly what troubles Kirk Cousins against. Sure, he has the most turnover worthy throws in the NFL this year. Then don't forget this
Vikings defense is incredible against the run. They're incredible against the run outside the tackles, They're incredible against the run inside the tackles. They are really efficient in stopping the run. The strength of the Falcons right now, it's Bjon Robinson right. Nobody can figure out what to do with Kyle Pitts.
The next coach, coordinator, quarterback who can figure out what to do with Kyle Pitts could end up going to the Hall of Fame because all we ever hear about is Kyle Pitts is the weapon who can unlock the Atlanta Falcons offense and nobody has been able to figure out how to do it. And Kirk Cousins since that streaky start seventeen touchdowns, seven interceptions to start the year, the past three games since they started six and three,
zero touchdown passes, six interceptions, seven sacks. And let's not forget he had nearly eight hundred yards and eight touchdowns in two of those first nine games against the tenth Bay Buccaneers. So that's sort of let's not confuse ourselves into believing that Kirk Cousins is just having a little bit of a bad rough patch right now. He's just not mobile and he's not playing well, and he's had two good games that have made the numbers look really good.
So the wise guys like Minnesota here, all right.
A little shift up. I want to talk one college game. So these are my instincts. This is my favorite college bat of the weekend.
Georgia plays Texas. I like the over.
Here's why Georgia played an eight overtime game. Okay, that doesn't affect the offense. Carson Becks had three straight games, eleven touchdowns, no picks. He's fine. It decimates a defense. You play a extra twenty eight snaps. Georgia looked tired last week against Georgia Tech.
They're going to be banged up.
Also, Texas got humiliated up front offensively in Austin. They have something to prove. They also played their worst offensive game of the year last week against Texas A and M, So Texas is going to play inspired offensive football. Georgia's defense is done, but their offense is still. You know, these are the two best quarterbacks in the sec Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers. In terms of like efficiency, I
love the over in this game. I think it actually ends up being a kind of just a wild shootout with a Georgia defense that just is out of gas. The over underlying DraftKings. I don't know what it is exactly right now. If you find it, you can tell me, but that's my favorite college bet in weeks.
Look, it's interesting. Chris Long, who has a brilliant podcast, the green Light Podcast. Yeah, he makes great points about the challenge of overtime on an NFL player, and that literally every hour of recovery matters when you are playing in the NFL. And if you got the four pm game and it ends at eight because your game went into overtime, that's a real impact on your body and
your ability to recover. I know the game for Georgia and Georgia Tech was on Friday night, but I'm not discounting the impact of an overtime game like that, because I do think that it's really really hard on the body, and I do think these offenses are both primed to blow up, So don't I don't hate your pick and.
A half forty nine and a half. That is not a big number.
Not a big number at all. Like I was looking it up as you were looking up as well, when you were talking about it, I didn't have it at the top of my head. In my head it was fifty one. So just thinking about these teams, forty nine and a half feels a little bit low. Now I'm looking in the app and I'm seeing do I have any total picks right now? I don't. Uh no, pit Wait, let's see one thing here. You know what I got. I got one under And that said so far from
sort of the experts. Okay, let's be different. Let's be different and take the over.
The You know what's funny about college football? So I had Notre Dame to cover, I had Oregon to cover, I had Ohio State to cover. You know, it's funny, and I've lived off this my entire career. New information, new opinion. I don't think it's flip flopping. I always say, if you were getting on a flight and the pilot said, listen,
we've had a weather change. But instead of a new flight plan, I'm gonna fly right into the lightning storm, you'd be like, that's not smart, right, Like I don't understand like bloggers or media critics who are like you changed your mind every day of my life. I changed my mind because I'm curious and I seek new information. I sell stocks regularly new information. So it's funny about
Ohio State. I said, I always had Ryan Day as a coach that could win a national championship, but that coaching was so weird that I have eliminated him from that category, where now I have like Lane Kiffin, Sark, Kaylin de boor Dan Lanning. You know guys I think can win a national championship, they just haven't yet.
They're good coaches.
I had Ryan Dan that Now I think to myself, okay, that's that's hyperbolic, that's overreacting, But there are things you want. I always use the example when Randy Moss played for the Patriots and it'd been a couple of years. One Monday night game against Miami, they literally didn't target him, and I said, oh, this is his last game as Patriot. And I went on the next day and said, people are like, you're overreacting. I'm like, you do not target Randy Moss once in a football game with Tom Brady.
Somebody's pissed off. Somebody got he was probably close to a DNP. Something's going well.
Sure enough he moved.
Watching that game was so seismic to me. I'm like I I thought Ryan Day was coaching to prove a point. That was as bad a coaching as I've ever seen in a big spot.
You nailed it. You and I had this conversation before Thanksgiving about Ryan Day and about the pressure he is under and how there's not a single coach in the playoff who, unless they win the National Championship, wouldn't be back next year. Only Ryan Day has that kind of pressure. He is now been coaching well in big games his entire career, four straight losses to Michigan, and this game exactly what you just said I think is true. It felt like he was coaching. And again he doesn't call
the plays, it's Chip Kelly calling the plays. But the way the team performed, it felt like he was trying to prove they're super strong, they're super physical, They're going to punch him in the mouth, and all the aggression he's been feeling for years is coming out in that game. And then at the end his team is getting into a fistfight with the Michigan team, and he's standing there
and just asking what's happening, what's going on? Like it's just I can't imagine he's back in Ohio State next year. And I know I don't like talking about people's jobs. Nobody does. But he has not performed at the level of expectation. It's great.
If he lost to Josh Hipel in the first round, I think he'd be in big trouble.
I think if he doesn't win a national title, he's in big trouble. Look, Colin, they spend twenty million dollars. They got Jim Knowles, who's a legendary defensive coordinator. They got Chip Kelly, who revolutionized the game. They can go into the portal get anybody they want. They can recruit
anybody they want. They've lost two games this year. The first game of the year that they had six months to prepare for and they got railroaded, and they got beat up in a fistfight with a team that is incredibly overmatched in terms of talent, and they lost at home to a team that they had been thinking about beating for three hundred and sixty four days. You can't keep that guy if he doesn't win a national title.
I would, but I think him in the minority. I think if he lost to Tennessee, I'd struggle. But if I think if he won a couple of games and let's say lost to Texas in you know, the final four in overtime, I'd be like, okay, Texas. I mean, the only two teams I've seen. I think we don't have a great team in college football. But I thought before last weekend Texas and Oregon were really good, and so is Ohio State. Those are really good teams.
Very rarely in.
College football do you get a great team. The Joe Burrow team with you know, justin Jefferson Jamar h that's a great team. The Reggie Bush teams. A couple of those were insane. Miami had a team at the end of the Butch Davis run. They had like twenty two NFL guys, the Lawrence Phillips Tommy Fraser Nebraska team, the seventy two USC Trojans. You get these teams that are like, oh god, there, you know this. This is a year full of good to very good teams. But people forget
this too. Ohio State struggled at Penn State that was a clunky win.
It was.
It was an inartistic clunky win. There and I and maybe a Penn State will prove me wrong, but I think Oregon beats on this weekend, so I I listen. Here's all you need to know about coaching is a team overperforming or underperforming. Ohio State has underperformed as much as any big name program this year.
Yeah, everything you just said says to me you think he shouldn't come back unless he went to the national title. I feel like you're.
Well, I don't being soft all of a sudden, there's no great coach in the offing. There is.
I mean, urban Meyer would be my choice. I don't think he'll come back. I the first thing I asked, I don't care if it's the volume. I don't care if it's as an athletic director. The first thing is, well, what's what's the hiring market? Like like, I don't like making moves like I even even you know I've dinked around with real life State and you know Oas calls me like I'm the circler. I'll circle something for you. I'll drive by the property in the morning, I'll drive
by at night. I'll drive by on the weekends, I'll circle. I'm somebody that's I wouldn't say cautious, but I tend to circle stuff before I do it. So the first thing I would do if I'm the athletic director is all right, what's the market like? And some years you get Brian Kelly's available, and you're like, you know, there are years like last year in the NFL there was one good NFL opening, the Chargers because of Justin Herbert.
They had a left tackle, they had a quarterback, they had a Bosa rushing off the edge, they had a great safety. You're like, that's a pretty good job. And it's in LA, right, you can get free agents. But like this year in the NFL, Chicago's the best job. Mccaskey's are the poorest owners own it since the twenties. I'm not sure if Kevin Warren at president is the right guy. We don't know much about Ryan Poles, Like
that's the best job. So there's not a lot of great job opening, and there's not a lot of great candidates, and so to me, it's like I would keep Ryan Day and I would just keep my eye out if he you know, I would say this I'm on warning. Now we're going into a season I have I have been. I may have gone into this season thinking he's here forever. I go into next season thinking stubs his toe. I'm gonna make calls. That's how I would do it.
Ohio State is one of the two three best coaching jobs.
Ohn in college football, right, yeah, oh, absolutely, probably top two.
Yeah you think if they got rid of Ryan Day, they couldn't pry one of the best coaches from another program away.
Well, well, look at.
What Like I'm not saying that Washington was a top notch program, but Washington had been built quickly by Kaitlin de Boor and they were International title game last year. Nick sab unexpectedly retires, they got him immediately, And so I don't believe that Ohio State would not fire Ryan Day just because they don't think they can find a candidate. They can get anybody they want. They might be able to go into the NFL and get a great candidate who is a top notch coach who's dreamed of coach.
They could get Mike Rabel, Right, I'm just saying, like, not knowing the current candidate pool wouldn't stop me from doing it because Ohio State is such a good job. The candidate pool is everybody.
Yeah, Gruden may be toxic to NFL people, but he's not toxic in college football. I would call John Gruden tomorrow for the Ohio.
ESK job, and Gruden would crush that.
Yes, that would be my choice because I you know, there's some I think he still has a lawsuit or something of the NFL and there's some toxicity there, but college doesn't care.
What do they care?
And he'd I mean, are you kidding me? A football guy like Gruden.
And he's also a bad personality.
He'd be a great eight recruiter, great recruiter, great with boosters. Whatever ni Ow money they have would get bigger like.
And he's also he you know, he likes personnel like Andy Reid has no interest, but there are you know, McVeigh has interest, Sean Payton likes personnel, Jimmy Johnson did. Gruden likes personnel. He enjoys the process of recruiting and judging players. So yeah, I mean that that would be my first choice. Urban's my first choice. But he's been there and he's got a job.
I feel like you're coming around. I feel like you're coming around to the idea that there's there could be a candidate out there if Ohio State decided they wanted to go find a new coach.
Chad Millman, Sharper Square, good talk to anybody.
Good to see your brother.
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