Colin Cowherd Podcast - Week 11 ‘Sharp’ or ‘Square’ with Chad Millman

of my games were go either way games. I mean, I lost that Bears game, but I still thought I was on the right side. Chad Millman CCO Action Network, All odds provided by FanDuel, So it's a bounce back week. Didn't love all the lines. There's a lot of plus three or minus three, and I think the numbers are right. So as we venture into Sharper Square on a Friday morning, I'll start with one of those games. Texans getting three or three and a half. The Texans have been in

most of their games. Washington short week comes off a highly emotional win where they played nearly perfect football. We tend to get a little hyperbolic if a team looks great on a standalone game, Texans at home getting a field goal or more. I'd take that side. Go look at their results they've been in games Sharper Square Sharp on Sharp. This was immediately bet. I bet it at plus three. Unfortunately I bet it too early. It went

up to three and a half. The wise guys have now come back and taking it down back to three. There might be a couple of three and a half's out there. If you can find a three and a half, take it. Three is still the right side for me. It's a huge pros Joe's game. About eighty percent of the money coming in on the Texans and about fifty eight percent of the money coming in on the Commanders.

The Texans, you mentioned it, they outplayed the Giants. Look they averaged six yards per play against against the Giants. They completely outplayed them. There's massive Washington inflation. After beating Philly on Monday night, this was the first game that I bet Tuesday morning, looked at the lines, saw the Texans at plus three. I was worried it was going

to go to two and a half. I was worried the wise guys would nail it through Week ten the Texans have been the unluckiest NFL team parar Luck Rankings, which quantifies a lot of different metrics that basically say this team will regress back to the mean. They have been incredibly unlucky against the Giants. Two red zone turnovers, two red zone field goals did them in. You're getting a couple of points of value based on the perception

right now. Take the Texans. Another game that jumped out to me later today, Chargers plus five and a half at home. Keenan Allen Mike Williams should both play offensive lines in better shape. You know, the Chiefs have not necessarily been a great cover team. They win, they don't necessarily cover. It feels like a make or break game for the Chargers. This one feels obvious to me. Five and a half Chargers Sharper square. Yeah, so this one

opened at seven and this one again. You know, we do that segment Sharp Calls on the Favorites me and my bff, Simon Hunter, where the wise guys will call us in the middle of the week after hearing the first episode of the week. We get to the second episode. They're telling us what they liked and what they didn't like about what we said we love the Chargers in our first episode on Tuesday at plus seven. By late Thursday it was at five and a half. I still

like the Chargers at five and a half. I like them a little bit less, just because you're not getting the best of the number and you want to get the best of the number in these scenarios. The key here is that Patrick Mahomes historically does really well as a favorite of less than three and a half is under five hundred. As a favorite of more than three and a half, it's hard to go on the road. The Chiefs have not been winning by big numbers, and even against the Jags, I liked the Jags last week

plus nine and a half. They missed two field goals, right, so even then the score is not indicative of what happened on the field. The Chargers are going to be the right side here. I'm going to take the Eagles minus six and a half of the Colts, so I think we're overplaying the emotional elevation of the Colts for Jeff Saturday. Dan Campbell briefly was mister Magic in Miami. Philadelphia is a good team that played like crap and could not get the ball back in the first half.

They're a much better team. We still have an MVP candidate quarterback, better O line and D line played. You see the Eagles picked up some interior D lineman this week. I think the Culture a bad team. I know they're a favorite, but I like the Eagles to blow them out. Sharper Square. There's a reason why the Eagles had to pick up defensive line help. There's a reason why the Commanders controlled the line of scrimmage for something like forty minutes.

It's because the Eagles defensive line is missing. Jordan Davis and Fletcher Cox had to play seventy plays, and he was admitting in the middle of the league he was feeling it a little bit. Incomes in Damakan Sue, who

really who hasn't played this year. So now you're signing a guy off the street who's kind of got some tread on him and has past his prime, way past his prime, and plugging him in, hoping that you're going to play better against an offensive line that can be equal to what Washington just did with a significantly better running back who's finally healthy. So I was playing the

emotional residence of Jeff Saturday coming in. I'm playing the fact the Colts just have a better offensive line and have a running game that I think can beat up on the Eagles defensively. So you gotta take the Colts here. And this line's been coming down like it was at eight and a half. It was at eight, it was seven and a half, it was seven. I took it at seven. I waited a little bit too long. It's getting a little bit lower. Like you're alone on this one, Kylin.

The Wise guys like the Colts. I like the Cowboys minus one and a half at the Vikings an exhausting, wildly emotional game against Buffalo. Dallas had opportunity after opportunity to beat Green Bay. They were controlling them at Lambeo in the third quarter. Also, the left tackle for the Vikings, who's been fantastic, could be hurt. Michael Parsons office, worst game of the year. I take Dallas straight up to beat Vikings. Sharper square, totally sharp. The Wise guys are

in love, in love with this game. And this is like one of the biggest pros Joe's disparities that we have on the board this week. When I'm talking about pros Joe's I talk about tickets are the joes the number of betting tickets ten dollars, fifteen dollars, twenty dollars coming in on one side, and the money those are the pros coming in on the other side. Huge disparity in this game. Look, everyone says it. The Vikings have been one of the luckiest teams this year. They're winning

in less than one score games. We saw it again this past week. This past week, their collective win probability in the game makes them the second luckiest winners in the NFL since twenty fourteen. Number one, by the way Miami Dolphins against the Baltimore Ravens earlier this year. This is a mediocre team in every single respect. This is a mediocre team in the Minnesota Vikings. Look at the

DVOA Cowboys are fourth Minnesota's seventeenth estimated wins. So if you take away sort of the one score elements and you just look at the overall stats, Dallas should have seven point seven wins. Minnesota should have four point five wins. Yards per play on offense Minnesota's sixteenth yards per play allowed their twenty eighth. This is Dallas. Every single wise guy will tell you Dallas should be favored by three in this game. Okay, another game I liked. The Jets

are able to get a rush with four people. If you look at Mac Jones's numbers, they are regressing badly. He is now no better than Zach Wilson on six or seven vital stats. If the numbers three and a half and what I think will be a very low scoring game between two very good defensive coaches, that's just too much. The weather could be choppy. New England just doesn't score a lot and the Jets don't allow you to score a lot. They discombobulated the Packers at Lambeau.

If I get three and a half, I would take the Jets. That just seems again low scoring Jets front real pressure on Mac Jones, who is acknowledged this year has been a struggle for him with no offensive coordinator. Jets plus three and a half sharper square. The flip side is that what is it? Three weeks ago the Jets and the Patriots played in New York, New Jersey. The Patriots were three point favorites in that game. They ended up winning by five. So three weeks later, after

a big Jets win, against the Bills. The Patriots now go home and they are three point favorites again. So you're telling me, in those three weeks with one win that is dynamic against the Jets Bills team that might not be as good as we thought it was. The Patriots are all of a sudden still just three point favorites. So that three point edge that you get by playing at home is washed away in three weeks. That is a massive, massive adjustment. The Patriots are the wise guys

side here. The Patriots have been betting. The wise guys have been betting the Patriots. They bet him at three. It's why it's going up to three and a half. I would still take it at three and a half. I might even take it at four. I think the Patriots Mac Jones might be complaining, but their running game is doing really well. And I am not actually as big a hater on Matt Patricia running that offense as other people have been. I think he's kind of figured

something out. So of the wise guys, they like the Patriots. All right, I'm gonna take the Raiders plus two and a half at Denver off a bye. Denver is awful. Could not get into the red zone. The Raiders are in six one possession losses, They're in games, they have a legitimate quarterback, they have a functional coach. I can't Denver can't be a favorite over anybody. Can you imagine coming in off a bye week and you can't get into the red zone again, the Titan team missing five starters.

The Raiders are the better team. This goes to my Arizona Seattle situation, or twice Seattle got points. Seattle is a better team. The Raiders are the better team than Denver. Of course I'm taking point sharper square, So yeah, the Raiders are the better team. The wise guys will be betting the Raiders. It's a really interesting game because when these two teams met earlier in the season, you had almost an entirely different lineup for the Denver Broncos. You

won't have Randy Gregory in this game. You had him in that game. You won't have Bradley Chubb in this game. You had him in that game. You're not gonna have kJ Hamler you had him in that game. Jerry Judy potentially injured. You have a lot of injuries on the offensive line, and as we know, this offense is terrible. Right. The last time a team was last in scoring offense and first in scoring defense nineteen forty six. I think

everyone saw the stat this week. If the Broncos had scored more than seventeen points in any of their games this year, they'd be eight and one. So I think you're getting the right side in the Raiders, all right. We always finished with two things. I ask you about a game that I'm not going to bet you can potentially talk me into it. Bears plush three at the Falcons Chicago would have been my side. I thought they outplayed Detroit, but Atlanta can take the ball away from

you with a run game. In Justin Fields, who's a little heavy legged now because they're depending on them a lot, how would you play it? So I like the Bears in this game, but I'm waiting to see if it gets back to three and a half. It was at three and a half. I think if you can get there, I'd probably play the Bears at a field goal. It's a pass for me, but honestly, the Bears the last few weeks have been offensive. Juggernai right, And this is the one thing that Justin Fields has shown other than

his legs. When he's not being pressured, he's a pretty good passer. And right now the Falcons can't get any pressure on the quarterback, the league's worst pressure rate, and their secondary is still shorthanded. Meanwhile, their offense has been fading a little bit, marks mariotas sort of becoming who we thought he would be. And so are the Falcons going to be able to score enough to keep up

with the Bears. They're both incredibly bad defenses. The Bears offense, to me, is a little more potent, and I think Justin Fields is a better quarterback. So I'm just hoping that the number as we get closer to the game gets back up to three and a half. Finally, in Sharper Square, Chad Millman, give me a game I haven't brought up that you think is a gem. Well, look, you you brought up the Chargers, which I was surprised

and pleasantly surprised that you brought them up. You threw the Broncos at me, which we hadn't even talked about, and sort of when I start to get word of what you might be interested in, So the other game that is interesting to me, Let me see if I can convince you with this, because I am. Last week we talked about the Niners and the Chargers, and I told you I was making an executive decision. The Wise

guys were really all over the Niners. I loved the Chargers in this spot, right, I'm going to do the same thing this week, the Steelers and the Bengals. The Wise guys love the Steelers. They love the t. J. Watter Is back, They love Mike Tomlin as a home dog. They are impressed by their performance last week. So are we both love the Steelers last week, this line has moved from five and a half down to five to four and a half to four to three and a half.

I'm taking the Bengals, right. I think I've got the better quarterback. I've got the better team. I've got a team that one last week, coming off the by with a new quarterback. They're a little bit lower emotionally. I feel like this is a really good spot for the Bengals to take another leaf forward in their quest to get back to the playoffs. Also, the Steelers off a bye beat the Saints in a short week, so Kenny

Pickett had extra days to prepare. Now Kenny is the quarterback with fewer days to prepare against the significantly better quarterback, so Burrow does at three. I would take them. These divisional rivalry games are close, but pick it now goes from having that advantage of extra prep to facing a significantly better quarterback that has the advantage over him. It does feel like the Bengals of the side. It does

feel like the Bengals of the side. I will tell you, I don't know that it's going to get to three. I hope it does. I took it at three and a half because I'm starting to see numbers out there where it could go back to be four before it goes back down to three. So I took it at three and a half. I might have rushed. I got a little antsy. I don't know. Sometimes I get impatient,

but it'll be interesting. Look when we do the podcast, when we do the favorites, when Simon and I do the favorites, we will have one bet every week that we call our big balls better the week. It's the bet that nobody else is making that feels kind of ugly. And we were debating this week between the Chargers and the Bengals, and we ultimately went with the Bengals. All right, Melburn, good stuff. I'm trying to bounce back. This week is always all outs provided by FanDuel. Thanks Buddy Good to

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