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lowest prices guarantee. All right, Hi, everybody, welcome in. I got about a ten minute rant before we get to Sharper Square, which is a good one. This week. We have some theories that Chad Melman of the Action Network and I go back and forth on one regarding Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers. So a really good twenty twenty five minute Sharper Square with Chad Melman. So, you know, how do you define a franchise quarterback? Tonight?
Trevor Lawrence is a franchise quarterback. Doesn't practice all week, bad knee, facing a better defense Saints than Derek Carr faces in the Jacks. He's on the road, one of the louder stadiums. Trevor Lawrence, unlike Carr, doesn't make the big mistake, doesn't have a pick six. A very tidy twenty for twenty nine, two hundred and four yards, sixty yards rushing and a touchdown on the road against the
better defense. Did not practice. That's a franchise quarterback. It's not having to play great, it's just making enough plays to win a road game when you don't practice all week. Derek Carr at home has Alvin Kamara arguably the best player in the game. A lave Michael Thomas. Derek Carr's line a less efficient thirty three of fifty five of pick six, one touchdown. The offense was essentially Alvin Kamara seventeen carries and twelve catches. Think about that, twenty nine
times he touched the ball. Oh, running backs, The life of a running back. I am not anti Derek Carr, but when Derek Carr was in Vegas or Oakland, he was almost a sympathetic figure. Right, weird ownership, kooky organization, Al Davis into his son, and so when you watched him, team had to move to Vegas. When you watched Derek Carr, he was almost a sympathetic figure. You know, if he could only get a good defense, a star back, a couple of great weapons, a functional, stable ownership group, a
weaker conference, a wait, a weaker division. O. Wait, he got all of them with the Saints, and it feels like he's standing in the way of success. Weaker division, Nomah Holmes, Herbert twice a year, weaker conference, better defense, more functional ownership, one of the top gms, Mickey Loomis in the league. Two star receivers, star back, and at least a good run blocking line. I don't know if they're a good pass blocking line the Saints, but a
pretty good run blocking line. And he's at home facing a quarterback who didn't practice and loses. And years ago, Raider fans just would relentlessly call me out when I would say, you know, I think Derek Carr is about the twelfth best quarterback in the league. He's around that Dak Prescott level. And I really did believe that. But what's happened is Derek's not in his prime. He's just out of it, and the league's gotten better at quarterback.
There's just five or six guys that weren't around five years ago. And if you right now look at the top ten quarterbacks in the league, and I would say Mahomes, Allen Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Herbert Stafford, Hurtz, Trevor, Lawrence Goff, Aaron Rodgers. I'll put in there too. Those are ten. I would take Kyler, Murray, Dak and Tua above Derek Carr.
And I watched them play against c J. Stroud last week and I thought c J. Stroud was a better distributor of the ball, a more accurate thrower, and played with more confidence. So now he's the fifteenth best quarterback Derek Carr in the league. And he got the bag, which is going to limit for the next couple of years what the Saints can do in free agency. And
I was talking about this on FS one today. If you're questioning whether you should give your quarterback big money, Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannehill, you know, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, ask yourself, this would at least half the league, and preferably over half the league make a call on them. No for Garoppolo, Tannehill, Daniel Jones, and Derek Carr. Derek Carr had a market of about three teams, that's it. And Herbert would have twenty two, Allen would have twenty eight.
Mahomes would have everybody except Kansas City make a call, right that's the difference. The market tells you how good your quarterback is. It's what I've said about Tua. Tua's market would be about six seven teams. Let's say I'm wrong, double it to twelve. It's still not enough. You got ten bad quarterbacks in the league and ten okay quarterbacks in the league, right, and then ten to twelve guys we kind of rt like and really about six we love maybe seven. So I mean, that's the mistake the
Saints made. Now. They were a little desperate. Taysom Hill doesn't feel like a franchise guy. Jamis Winston, Drew Brees left, so Sean Payton left, so you're looking for some stability with Derek Carr and I like him, but right now I feel like he's about the fifteenth best quarterback in the league, losing it home to a court back that didn't practice with a better defense. The best player on the field probably Alvin Kamara, lave Michael Thomas and had
one great drive. It's not being critical, just being honest about it. So when you look at the Saints now, you know there's going to be a lot of decisions in this league. Do you pay a guy or not people in Chicago or backing Justin Fields. Would over half the league call on Justin Fields? Absolutely not. He's probably not the guy, right, doesn't mean he doesn't have talent. And I think there would be four or five teams that would call on Justin Fields today, maybe six, maybe eight.
But look at it. If it's not over half the league last ten years, you're probably spending too much money on that quarterback. And that's how I feel about the Saints and Derek Carr. So there's been this story, a rumor out there about the Michigan State job now Michigan State Athletics, between the mel Tucker mess and another coach in their organization that did some criminal things. The brand's gross right now, and so there's been talk about, like,
you know, would Urban Meyer go to Michigan State? And the most attractive thing about Michigan State football is that the word Michigan, isn't it right? That's how big the Wolverines brand is. So as the PAC twelve's four best football programs four of five, Utah is better than u CLA, but I would say USC, Washington, Oregon. Historically, those are the best last twenty years programs in that conference. Are joining the Big Ten Conference. So Michigan State is not
Ohio State. It's not Michigan, it's not Penn State, it's not Oregon. Go look at their last twenty years. Washington, who is a top ten program every time they get the right coach, and it's not usc with six or seven national titles. You can argue it's UCLA. I don't think it is, but it's an argument. Nick Saban couldn't win at Michigan State, Chris Peterson, Don James Rick Neuheisel, and the current Huskies coach Caitlin n Boor winning big
at Washington, so it's not Washington. So at best, it would be the seventh best program in the Big Ten. And I would take the Wisconsin job over Michigan State just because right now, I wouldn't mind if I was a coach attaching my brand to Wisconsin's cleaner brand. That makes it the eighth best job at best in the Big Ten. I don't have this sourced, but why in the world would Urban Meyer, who has paid over forty million dollars to not coach the Jaguars, leave Sarasota, Florida
for that? I wouldn't. I think that would be if you're his agent and recommended that you get a new agent. Now he may take the job. Money talks. Somebody offers him a hundred million dollars. But when I hear rumors about that, I think to myself, the best part about Michigan State is the word Michigan's in it. General rule, don't take the Auburn job. Take the Alabama job, right, Don't take the UCLA football job, take the usc job. Don't take the Oklahoma State job. Take the Oklahoma job.
Take big brother, not little brother.
All right.
Chad Milman comes on a lot to talk about a lot of different things. To talk about the NFL season. It's going strong and DraftKings Sportsbook hooking new customers up with an offer even stronger bet five books. That's it on any game this week to score two one hundred dollars instantly in bonus bets. How easy is that? And DraftKings isn't stopping there. All customers can take advantage of a sweetener offer every game this October. Get in on the action, get in on the game day greatness. Download
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That's the code Colin Coli n only on Draft King sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NFL. The crown is yours all right, Time for another edition Sharper Square. It's the CEO of the Action Network, Chad Millman. My buddy O odds provided by Draft Kings. So Warren Sharp sent me something over the week that was really fascinating. Underdogs are not doing well this year, and Warren Sharp not only theorizes but indicates that the holding calls defensively
have gone down sharply. And so when you look at the numbers of the holding calls defensively, it's now understood that you're allowed to grab receivers down the field. It's just understood. It was not three years ago that was we would all as fans go, that's a penalty. Now you can do it while the ball's in the air. If it's not, you know, lurching at the player and disrupting him. And so what does that mean. My theory is that that will punitively punish the mediocre to below
average quarterbacks. Daniel Jones can't even get a touchdown this month. So the Tannehills, the Daniel Jones, the backups, the gap between starters and stars and backups Tannehill and Mahomes. Now five years ago he could be competitive. The gap now between Daniel Jones and Mahomes. It's like junior varsity. Varsity underdogs are not covering the best quarterback. If Baker is better than Derek Carr, and I think he is, leads already leads in seven divisions. The exception has brought pretty.
He's not as good as Stafford, but he's better than Arizona's backup and arguably better than Geno Smith. So my point being is, I've always been a fan of underdogs, but increasingly this year, my winning bets are on superior quarterbacks covering and Warren Sharp detailing. Now, this is really hurting scorings down, but there are more blowouts in two years than we've ever had, and the scoring is declining
even for Kansas City, Cincinnati, Baltimore. And so I look at my bets this week and I think I wouldn't have made these bets a year ago. But I'll throw one at you Ravens minus three at home against the Lions. So I watched Baltimore. I thought their first half against Tennessee was the single most impressive half of the season by a quarterback in any game. I thought Lamar was spectacular. Detroit has been on a little bit of a streak. They've won on the road. This is a whole different ballgame.
Baltimore is one of the hardest places to play. I still think the Ravens, I told you last week it was my favorite bet are undervalued. So again plus three Detroit hot would have been my pick. I'm going to go Baltimore minus three sharper square.
So it's definitely sharp. Speaking of I think I think Warren's uh sort of inclination about the holding penalties is interesting. But you could also argue that teams that are underdogs aren't covering because not because there's holding calls, but because quarterbacks haven't been making plays. Just look this past weekend. How many downfield throws that could have made a difference did Baker miss? How many downfield throws that could have
made a huge difference to Justin Herbert miss. I think there's a combination of a lot of things that are impacting some of these games. Some of them are sort of factors that are are not repeatable. Some of them are a regression, some of them are things that are going to be patterns. Certainly, offense is down considerably and.
Sacks are up, by the way, so on line players, so media with pressure and defensive holding, like, the sacks are way up. So if you can escape it, you're okay.
This year.
I think right now, the average yards per attempt, yards per completion, it's something like ten point six. It's amongst the lowest and in the modern.
Era of the NFL.
So certainly defenses are on the up and offenses are leveling out, which probably means when the Competition Committee meets in the spring, they will figure out a way to make it easier for.
Offenses to score the football.
You know.
But to your point about the Ravens, yeah, it's the sharp side. The line opened to two and a half. Everybody believes the Lions are way over valued. You're talking about a team that was eleven to one to win the NFC before the season began. They're now down to six to one, just behind the Dallas Cowboys and obviously the Niners and the Eagles. And you have to take a look for a second at who the Lions have beaten, right, the Panthers, the Bucks. They have not beaten very good teams,
the Packers, and meanwhile the Ravens. A they scored twenty eight points against the Cleveland Browns, which is an historically great defense. And your point about Lamar is spot on. Like they've been red zone inefficient in certain games. That game against the Steelers they should have won. We talked about this last week. A lot of drop passes that would have made the difference and put the game away.
He's actually playing really well. And Lamar, when he is a short favorite, is actually very very good against the spread. Bigger favorite, not so much short favorite.
I like it. Wise, guys like it.
You're sharp all right, Browns minus two and a half. It is a staggeringly good defense. And I think San Francisco settling for field goals should have made him but missed him. And this is a team that is loaded with weapons, a brilliant head coach. Now, yes it's on the road, but backup quarterbacks or backups for a reason. If I said this last week, you know Gardner Minshew, the analytics said take Colts against right, the Jags the better quarterback at home. So I don't love the quarterback
situation for Cleveland. I do not trust a backup quarterback against this defense. I think Cleveland's for real. I may be disgusted by Deshaun Watson, he still may play. But if this is three, I pass at two and a half. This is a playoff level, elite defense. I'd take it sharper square.
A little trappy, Colin, here's the challenge. I agree with you about Gardner Minshew. When I was taking notes on the games last weekend, one of the notes that I took was have the shoes fallen off? Is Cinderella no
longer Cinderella? And Gardner Minshew because in the games that he had been playing for Anthony Richardson, he had been winning, he had been covering, he had been playing, unlike Gardner Minshew, who had gone winless for so long last week a lot of bad turnovers, turnovers that took them out of that game from the very beginning. Meanwhile, you get the
Browns at home backup quarterback. They just beat the team that everybody thought was the best team in the NFL, that had just beaten up on the Cowboys in an embarrassing fashion that Catapult had brought Purdy to be seven to one to win the MVP in the NFL. That's overvalue City man versus a team at home that is entirely undervalued because of how badly they played and because of Gardner Minshew. Honestly, for me, it's a pass like
I want nothing to do with this game. So if you want to play it, buy or beware.
Eagles minus two and a half. Another favorite, hosting Miami. I think Miami, I've got a pretty good read. They're a heavy weight with a glass chin. If you punch them back, can get a rush with four. They fold pretty quickly. Lane Johnson should play. That's a more comfortable quarterback against the less comfortable quarterback. Miami will score. But if you look at their defensive front for Miami and the offensive front of Lane Johnson plays, this could be
ball control. I'minan I'm gonna take for the record, Philadelphia night game at home. Watch the Phillies games lately, like it's just different. I'm gonna take Eagles minus two and a half. Sharper square totally sharp throughth is. This line opened at one and a half and moved up to two. Now it's a two and a half. It is a pros Joe's game, right. The wise guys are one hundred percent on the Eagles. The Joe's the amateurs, the squares they are on the Dolphins.
And you mentioned a couple.
You mentioned two things that are really important here. One, Lane Johnson, if he plays, this is a significantly different team.
When he doesn't.
I think they're ten and twenty two without Lane Johnson, and when he plays, they're a super Bowl caliber team. Two, Jalen hurts against pressure not so good. Jalen hurts when he's not against pressure with teams that can't pressure him more than forty percent of the time. I think he's
twenty and five in his career. So you're talking about a Miami Dolphins team that is not great at pressuring the quarterback, and you're talking about an Eagles team that is coming off a loss that they were headed for. You and I have talked about this, like, the Eagles have been winning because they have a really good head coach, they have a really good quarterback, they have really good weapons on the edges, but they haven't been gelling offensively
at all. And also last week, Jalen Carter didn't play right. He was resting, so this week he should be back on defense. And the Eagles had that moment like, Okay, we've been stealing wins. We were embarrassed by the Jets. We understand better now what we need to do. We're going to come back because that's who we are. The wise guys are on the Eagles.
One more favorite I think I would take. I'm not sure I love it, but I'm going to wait for the injury report. Minnesota is just not that good. I hear about how unlucky they are. Maybe that's not the issue. Forty nine ers off a loss are a really good football team. Minnesota is not. I don't think it's a great locker room. I don't think I don't think they create pressure situations for offenses. I think San Francisco will
control the ball at some point. If you do something five or six weeks in a row, you're not unlucky. It's who you are. And I don't think Minnesota is very good. I think quietly in the building they're moving off Cousins. They moved off to Alvin Cook. I don't think it's I just I don't love this team. I'm going to take the Niners minus six and a half. Sharper square.
You are who your record says you are. Didn't some brilliant coach say that one will ourselves. The Vikings are not a very good football team. They weren't very good last week against a terrible team and the Bears. The only reason they won that game is because a second string quarterback who's a rookie who had never played, came in off the bench, fumbled scoop and score for the Vikings. That was the difference in the game. Otherwise the Bears
with a backup quarterback win that game. Right, And so this has been the center on the Vikings all year. People were fading the Vikings. They did not expect them to win at the rate they did last year. There was gonna be a regression because of how many one score games they won. This line has moved up from six and a half it did seven. The wise guys are hesitant to come in on big road favorites, but in this case they are aligned with you.
All right, here's my one dog I don't love the slate this week for dogs Chargers plus five and a half at Kansas City listen, they're in close games, they're a good team. I don't love them situationally. If it's close, I'll take Andy Reid. But I think their personnel matches up very well with Kansas City. It has with Anthony Linn, it has with Brandon Staley. This feels like kind of a gimme. I don't ever love the Chiefs as a favorite.
They're not a high fire power team. Now, they did get their receiver back from the Jets, but it'll take probably a couple of weeks to get him right situated. I'm going to take the Chargers plus five and a half sharper.
Square, totally sharp, and Look, this is one of the those games that's really interesting, right because you're talking about it from multiple levels. Are you talking about what you're seeing on the field. Check, you're going to take the Chargers. Are you talking about what you see historically between these two teams. Check, you're going to take the Chargers. Are you talking about what you would see between two teams in the division?
Check you're going to take the Chargers.
Are you talking about what you would see from Patrick Mahomes as a favorite of more than three points? Check you're going to take the Chargers. So let's start at the beginning. What you're seeing on the field. Justin Herbert has lost games by six or more points three times in the past twenty three games. He keeps the games close.
Their disadvantage is they have a terrible coach who does not put them in a winning position and makes the most inconsistent, awful decisions at the worst possible time for this team to win. He just does right. So you've got that moving against them. But it's also be the talent is so good. Between what they have in the edge is what they have defensively, what they have with Justin Herbert, they can stay in games two. The games between these two teams are always close, right. Justin Herbert
has never not covered a six point spread. There was one push because they went to overtime and they lost by six points in overtime. So it's a great matchup for these two teams. The Chiefs offense has not been gelling. Patrick Mahomes has now found the right rhythm with his receiver Jet And then you're talking about teams in the division in this scenario. Over the past twenty years, underdogs have covered sixty there sixty games above five hundred covering
a number like this in the division. Meanwhile, the home team covers at a forty seven percent rate in this position when they are favorites. When they are favorites of three or more, it moves down to forty four percent. And finally, Mahomes as a favorite of three and a half or more, is far below five hundred because oftentimes his favorite, when he's a favorite, he's a favorite of
so many points, it's an impossible to cover. So in every way, whether it's a trend, whether it's on the field, whether it's a system.
The wise guys like the Chargers.
Okay, now I ask you for a game to convince me, and then a game I missed Green Bay. Denver's fascinating. Aaron Jones comes back. I feel like there are limitations to Jordan love. But it's a good locker room. It's full of hope. I have a lot of continuity with Denver. I don't know what the identity is. I don't like the locker room. I don't think they do anything well. I do think the Packers do some things well. I would tend to lean all of our odds provided by DraftKings.
I don't know what is it now minus one? Green Bay? Is green Bay plus one minus one?
I would lean down to minus one?
Okay, I would lean green Bay. What's sharper square?
The wise guys are on the Broncos.
This game opened to two, it's moved down to one. It's ugly. They don't love the Broncos. Look their defense played a little bit better against the Chiefs. The bigger challenges should Jordan Love as a rookie who's played what five games as a starter consecutively, who looked good at the first couple of games, but has really been missing a lot of open targets. And as much as Matt Lafleur is scheming to get him open targets, if he can't hit the targets, then you can't cover the game.
So now he's going on the road as a favorite. There couldn't be less interests. There couldn't be a team more undervalued than the Broncos. Because while Sean Payton has been making Russell Wilson look brilliant in the first couple of drives of every game, he kind of craters after that. So a lot of fading of Russell Wilson. I think the biggest fear of the wise guys have in betting the Broncos, which is the side their betting is from now through the end of the year.
Are they just going to tank?
Are they getting tank and try to get Caleb Williams and compete with the Bears or the Panthers for that number one overall?
Pa?
Because which the Bears get the Panthers, by the way, because he's got to look at this team and realize, we don't have any talent. Our receivers can't get separation, our quarterback can barely get plays called. He doesn't know what he's doing to get the ball deep like it's it's a pretty nasty situation there. But they're taking the Bromos.
And finally, an ugly game, a game I missed, A game that you really have a strong opinion about, are feeling about, but I just didn't discuss.
Oh my god, Colin, remember last week, I'm like, do me a favor, you want to win take the Jets plus seven against the team?
No, no, no, that wasn't ugly. I that was the one blazing five. I should have gone three and two. I went two and three. I liked that bet. I didn't take it. It was my last bet the Jets the last two weeks against the Broncos and Eagles was my last bet out. So I like the Jets back to back week, so that was a good pick. It made a lot of sense.
I also wanted you take the Browns, which was a better pick and made a lot of sense and won. So here's what I'm going to ask you to do. I'm not gonna I'm not the kind of guy Colin who rubs people's nose in their mistakes. That's not what I do. Okay, here's what I want you to consider. Can I interest you in the New York Giants plus two plus two and a half hosting the Washington Commanders.
So consider what I just said about the Chargers and the Chiefs and the underdogs historically being the advantage in that situation. And then consider Tyrod Taylor, who, by the way, has one of the lowest interception percentages based on the number of games minimum attempts anybody in NFL history. And then account for the fact that the offensive line played a little bit better and the defense played a little bit better against the Bills.
Right.
So, now, all of a sudden, you've got a Washington team that really they should have lost to Atlanta, like they were outplayed in every respect in that game. And to me, there's a two pronged thing here. One, I kind of like Atlanta as an underdog against Tampa for all the same intradivisional reasons that I've talked about. And also I think they were incredibly unlucky in that game, with some regression coming because Desmond Ritter made so many mistakes,
but also that highlighted Washington and then made them overvalued. Look, they've won some games, but they haven't won well, they haven't been good. They lost to the Bears by twenty points, so I don't know. I think the Giants are going to.
Be the side that the wise guys like. This week.
I thought most of the lines like I think Seattle hosting the Cardinals. I thought, initially if it was six and a half, I really like Seattle. I think people have figured out Arizona. So it's seven. So if Blazing five was on Monday, I would have taken Seattle. Now the numbers not good. My question is if it's seven, so you take Seattle seven and a half, you don't seven, do you? No?
No, no, I agree with you, and I think what happened with Arizona is like it's another sort of Cinderella story where the shine has come off a.
Little bit and people, we know what.
They figured that out right, And.
Honestly, the biggest challenge for them they lost James Connor. Like he was bull rushing over everybody, right, and he was really powering their offense. And without him, they really don't have any weapons that scare anybody. So to me, seven is a pass. If you could have gotten itto six and a half, you know, like you could still get San Francisco, you can get it at six and a half. I think those are the two sort of
bigger favorites. The other game that's really interesting and this one is like, remember for years we've been doing segments like this together and every year I'm telling you you got to take the Jags when they were terrible.
It's they're plus.
Thirteen and a half on the road. You got to take the Jags. That's what the wise guys are going to do. The New England Patriots had become the jack.
I can't I told you I can't. When I can't watch a team, I can't bet him.
So you can watch the Green Bay Denver.
Game fascinated by Sean Payton and Russell Wilson fascinated And is Jordan Love gonna make it or not? If Jordan Love is a lousy Sunday we have to be honest here sitting for three years completing fifty five percent of his throws with Matt Lafleur. If he can't move the ball, we got a white flag thing here, like you can't keep defending him. So that game's got a lot like
we know Russell's not gonna last. But if Jordan Love struggles, you cannot sit there by the way, C J. Stroud, no offensive lineman, can't run rookie play caler rookie coach game one good. He can't be in a place four years and complete fifty five percent of your throws. I don't want to hear about Kristin Watson's not available. Give me a break. So, I mean, I think that game is actually whatever the word is the French word for so ugly. It's attractive, that's greed bay better.
You know it's interesting. So I come from a startup culture with Action Network, right, you're building a really valuable, strong, incredible business with the volume. Yeah, if you're in a venture backed business. One of the best phrases I ever heard some of the folks who helped to who bankrolled Action when we started, is are you being intellectually honest about what you're looking at? Meaning? Can you look at
the data? Can you make a decision not based on what you want it to be, not based on what you think it could be if X factors hadn't impacted the numbers. It's like, can you look at the numbers? Can you say, Okay, this is what's happening, and then can you make decisions about the business going forward based on those numbers, regardless of your input into deciding how you got to that point or if it's going against
what you believed it should be. Same goes if it's going well, Like can you be intellectually honest about examining what you see in front of you? Can the packers be intellectually honest about Jordan Love if he continues to be a fifty five percent completion rate pastor who who misses open looks?
Yeah, I mean, I think you know my favorite saying. By the way, you mentioned your favorite saying, it was so funny somebody the other day, I have a plaque in my office and they saw the plaque and they got all excited, like orders. You get that amateurs chase the sun and get burned. Power stays in the shadows. That the smartest people are strategic. The amateurs want to get noticed and get headlines. The smart people do all their business behind the scenes. And I don't know why
I brought that up apropos of nothing. I do think Green Bay they're decent people. And the problem sometimes you know, there's a reason there's a lot of money in New York and in Wall Street and in tech world. People are harsh and they're brutal. And I don't think the Steelers could move off Kenny Pickett for three years because he's a Pittsburgh kid, because it's the decency of the Rooneys. And I think Green Bay is going to stick with Jordan Love because that's what good people do. They give
young people a chance. And I think Pittsburgh and green Bay this solid foundationally respectful. They're always looking for value. They're the guy at a nightclub wearing Dockers. They're not cool, but they're probably the richest guy in the room. And I don't think the Steelers can be honest about Kenny Pickett, and I don't think the Packers for a year or two. And by the way, if i'm both, I'm drafted a quarterback this year, not first or second third round quarterback.
I just want somebody in the room to compete with them. There's plenty of talent. But I do think sometimes what's hurt Green Bay in Pittsburgh is this unwillingness to just be harsh and harsh in our businesses. Sometimes it works like I've got to make a horribly hard decision, You're fired. It sucks, but it sometimes it's what's needed in professional football. Like Bill Belichick, Bill will Bill, your statue, your tone deaf. We got to get off Bill Belichick. That seems incredibly hard.
But Philadelphia fired Andy Reid, the Cowboys fired Tom Landry. You know what, Both the Eagles and the Cowboys did just fine. And we both love Andy Reid. So I think the Jordan Love question is do they have the stomach for it. I don't know if they do.
It's a hard it's a hard question to answer, and after five games of data, nobody is going to be ready to do that. After you know, twelve games of data with Kenny Pickett. Nobody is going to be ready to do it, but I think you can do it. After a season. That's when you start to get a full data set. Right when we talk about betting, all of the data I give you is going to be based on the data set of at least one hundred games. You need to have like a full picture to understand
is it a trend? Is it something that someone can overcome? Is it something that people were overperforming? Like what were the factors?
Right?
And then all of a sudden, you have the full data set and you've got a much cleaner look at what the real pattern is, and you know if someone's gonna change it or not. And so then you got to ask yourself, with someone like Jordan Love, what was the missing factor?
You know, we've talked about this before.
Jalen Hurts in year one was good, but there were questions about how good of a full quarterback he could be, how good of a pastor he could be. Year two, you get Aj Brown, you get DeVante Smith comes along. If you're a quarterback, you need to have weapons you believe in. You need to have weapons who can make you look better. You need to have weapons that you feel comfortable throwing a fifty to fifty ball. Same thing
with Josh Allen as Stefan Dicks. Josh Allen his first couple of years was not nearly as good as he was when he got Stefan Dicks right, and then all of a sudden his game changed. I think there was hope that Justin Field would be that with DJ Moore, I think the patterers are going to have these questions about Jordan Love if he doesn't get a full season of Christian Watson being a number one caliber receiver, They're gonna have to make a call. Do we have to
get a receiver? Is Jordan Love someone that we believe can grow into being a great quarterback? By the way, you like the Bears this week, Well, of course I do.
I mean it's a wise guy spy, you know. I was funny.
I was talking with my co host Simon Hunter on The Favorites this morning, and I had told him on Tuesday, I feel like the wise guys are going to be on the Bears. And then on Thursday we always do this segment called Sharp Calls, and we're like, the wise guys are giving us feedback on what we talked about on Tuesday, and they all liked the Bears, And it's a lot of the same principles we've been talking about. Right, the Bears are undervalued, They're a terrible team. Meanwhile, you
got the Raiders coming in. Should the Raiders be three point favorites against anybody?
Right?
They weren't even three point favorites at home against the Packer, against the Patriots, and all of a sudden they're going on the road. They're a badly coached team with a backup quarterback who's been in the league for fifteen years, Like, this is not a scenario where they should be a field goal or more favorite.
So yeah, wise guys are going to be in the Bears as olways.
Chad Melman, it's good seeing you.
Always a pleasure brother.
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