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Action Network. All of our odds provided by DraftKings. So I'm going to start with one of my strongest plays. There's a difference between struggling but competent and struggling the Bears plus one and a half at the Colts. I had a general manager this week in the league told me he looked at Anthony Richardson's film and said, Colin is as bad as anything I've ever seen from a starting quarterback. Greg Cosell told Ross Tucker on his podcast,
and he's not prone to hyperbolic statements. He's missing high school throws badly. The Bears have been close. The Bears have had moments. The Bears have a quarterback who is a franchise quarterback. We don't know yet with Anthony Richardson. If you're struggling with Shane Steichen to the point, can't hit stuff in the flat, you know, once Keenan Allen comes back, I think the Bears will be much better. Anyway. I think Bears plus one and a half is the play here against a wobbly Colts offense.
Sharper square, so it is the sharp side.
The line has moved in that direction right. It was started at two, it's now down to one and a half. So the wise guys have been coming in on the Bears. For me, personally, it's not going to be a spot. Everyone I've talked to clear division on this, not because of the Bears and not because of Anthony Richardson, but because of the spot for the Bears and the spot for the Colts, Anthony Richardson at home has been better than Anthony Richardson on the road. The Colts got smacked
by the Packers and their run game. Everybody knew that's what they were going to do, and everybody knows that's what the Colts cannot stop. The Bears don't have a run game at all. And the Bears defense, meanwhile, they are great in past coverage, they are great rush in the past or top five in both according to football folks, they are terrible against the run. And that is what the Colts will need to do in order to win this game. And by the way, they are desperate for a.
Win right now.
I do think that Shane Steikeen is a better coach than Matty Erfus. I do think that what he can draw up for Anthony Richardson is better than what the Bears can draw for Caleb Williams right now.
So it's a very tricky game. The wise guys took the two.
It's down to one and a half your sharp but it's not like there's a boatload of confidence on this sharp play.
We talk about regression to the mean. I love Sam Darnold, but I do not believe he's an MVP of this league. The Texans only have to give up two. They are two to zero and haven't played particularly well. They're a young team. Young teams tend to get better. I'm gonna take Texans minus two. The Vikings slow down a little at some point. No Jordan Addison, TJ. Hawkins and banged up. They'll pay a price for that.
Sharper square, yeah, and this one you're totally square.
Like the Wise Guy have been all over the Vikings in this game. It's moved off of a key number. I think they've been really impressed with what Brian Flores has done defensively.
CJ.
Stroud has not been as good on the road as he has been at home. We even saw it in some of the struggles that he had in Week one with against the Colts where they needed some help covering that game. So I think the challenge here is people are trying to figure out is Sam Darnold for real? And I have been saying this for about a year. I don't think Kevin O'Connell is getting enough credit as a being a really good coach. You know, we go back two years three years when he and Dayball were
both rookie head coaches. Day Ball gets all the credit for being a great coach. He wins Coach of the Year. He goes on the road to Minnesota. They beat Kirk Cousins in the playoffs. At Minnesota, Kevin O'Connell sort of has looked at as well, why didn't he beat Brian Daball. Brian dabel might be better. And then last year, Kevin O'Connell has these quarterbacks that he is rotating in and out after Kirk Cousins gets hurt and keeps this team in
contention for the playoffs. Now, all of a sudden, he's got Sam Darnold, and this guy has looked all world the first two games. You got to give a lot of credit to Kevin O'Connell here, which is another reason why the wise guys are backing the Vikings.
I had a rant today, if you look, we always think quarterbacks are the most valuable people in the league, and they are. After that, I always thought Christian McCaffrey and TJ. Watt felt like they really helped their teams win numbers. However, this morning, presented to me about AJ Brown are stark. Jalen Hurts wins at a Mahomes level with him, a Mahomes level twenty eight to eight. Without him, He's a slightly better version than Justin Fields. AJ Brown
is out. The Saints are for real. It's a coordinator story. Philadelphia is on a short week. I do not trust the back end of that defense in a close game. I just don't. I think Kirk Cousins. I mean, it was honestly looked. It looked so easy and remedial for Atlanta. I was swallow the two and a half and take the Saint sharper square.
Well, not a two and a half. It's not very sharp at all. And we've talked about this. There's an old axiom embedding you gotta get the best of the number. You are not getting even close to the best of the number right now. In fact, you're getting the absolute worst of the number. You could have had the Saints at plus two and a half plus three on Sunday night. There's basically been a six point swing in this game. So there's a couple factors here. Number one, you're going
to get the Saints, who are way way overhyped. So much inflation on the Saints right now, But you're also betting a team when the numbers flip. When a team goes from an underdog to a favorite, historically, the new underdog is going to cover about a fifty five fifty six clip, so that the percentages are better betting the Eagles right now despite what you're seeing on the field.
So the Broncos have had a tough open on the road for a rookie against Mike McDonald's defense and maybe the loudest stadium in the league. And then they face the Steelers, maybe the best defense in the league Tampa. Now they're getting six and a half. Tampa's beat up. Vitavilla's out six and a half. I mean, for you know, Sean wants to win these games. These are the richest owners in the league. It'd be great to get a year to go three and fourteen, but he needs some ws.
This number just seems off to me. I'm gonna take the Broncos plus six and a half against the Buck Sharper square.
Nah, you're walking into its field of knives.
It's so sharp.
Colin, you better watch yourself, because, yeah, the Broncos are the side here. And we have this thing called the luck Rankings. I've talked about it on the show before. It basically gives you indicators of if all things were being equal and you took out sort of turnovers, fourth down conversions, lack of ability in the red zone. The Bucks are the luckiest team in the NFL. The Broncos are one of the least lucky teams in the NFL. And the Broncos have also faced some pretty good defenses
up to this point. A lot of people are gonna look bad against the Steelers defense, right the Bucks. You look at that Lions game. Sure, they beat the Lions at home. The Lions were one for seven with touchdowns in the red zone. They aggressively outgained the Bucks in yardage yards per play. Jared Goff had a terrible game, but he was still moving the ball up and down the field. He just couldn't get it.
In the end zone.
So you combine the challenges that the Bucks have defensively with their injuries, with some of the factors that have inflated this line, because the Bucks have looked good while also looking a little bit lucky, and that's why you get a wise guy play on the Broncos.
I'm gonna call for a big upset of the week. I'm gonna take the Falcons plus three and a half against the Chiefs. Kansas City is missing when I think one of the most underrated players in the league is Isaiah Pichecko. I think he is so vital to them as they're rebuilding this receiving corps and Travis Kelcey is aging, he can disappear. They need a vibrant running game, and Isaiah Pacheco runs as hard as almost anybody in this league.
I think Atlanta's for real. Atlanta's offensive line against Philadelphia was decisive. This Atlanta team, you know, we sometimes because Kirk Cousins is you know, he's as vanilla sort of, you know, an envelope. He's just there's nothing, you know. He's a really proficient NFL quarterback and behind a good offensive line. This is the best old line he's maybe played behind. It's passing catch and I just think they'll give him time. Without Pacheco, it's an uneven receiving core,
Hollywood brownout. They don't quite know what worthy is. He's sort of a gadget player. Travis Kelcey has been invisible for the entire year. That number screwy falcons plus three and a half sharper square, totally sharp.
The wise guys have been moving this. It was at four and a half, then to four, now to three and a half. Would not be surprised if it gets down to three. Two sides of the coin both telling the same story, which is fade the Chiefs. On the one side, Patrick Mahomes as a favorite of more than three points. Historically he is under five hundred. Now, of course, Patrick Mahomes is almost always a favorite, and often times
a favorite of more than three points. So there is some you know, take that with a grin of salt, but it is the fact number one, number two. This offensive line is in trouble. They have injuries, they are sitting starters, They have guys who are causing too many penalties. Like you said, there are still some questions at the receiver positions, which she rice great, But outside of that, what is your downfield threat? We haven't seen it from one of the other than some really cool trick plays.
Pacheco.
I think is a massive problem being out and the homes hasn't looked that good.
Right, you look at the Chiefs, the.
Ravens a shoe tow away from being in that game and tie in that game. You look at the Bengals a fourth down pass interference against a rookie, the Chiefs could easily be one in one or zero to two, right, So that's number one.
Number two.
Their rush defense, as great as Chris Jones is, their rush defense is amongst the worst in the league. We know the Falcons can run the ball. We just saw them do that against the Eagles. And even better than that, they're right side of their line, especially their interior center and right guard. They are as good at run blocking as anybody in football. So now we're going to get the possibility that Kirk Cousins could use some play action
as he was able to do against the Eagles. If they can set up Bijon running against a pretty bad rush defense, you are correct with the wise guys.
Atlanta plus three and a half a.
Team, and we sometimes I sometimes am slow to acknowledge, I get confirmation biased, I make picks and I want to stick with them. I'm watching Arizona play. They went to Buffalo and for big chunks of the game out played Buffalo, and I think Buffalo is pretty good. And then I watched them dismantle the Rams. Rams were beat up, But if you really look at their pieces McBride, Marvin Harrison, Connor Kyler, they've been pretty good at pass blocking. Detroit's
not playing well. You know, there's the old saying strike when the iron's hot. Ben Johnson's not off to a good start. I've never trusted situationally in close games. Dan Campbell. I think he's a culture builder. I don't think he's schematically good. He's a little like Mike McCarthy. There's things I like about him. Don't trust them in close games. Arizona's getting at home a field goal. I'm gonna take Arizona Sharper square sharp ish.
You know, it's like the line is sort of exactly where it should be, so there's no huge advantage. If the line had been at three and a half, you take it. If the line's at two and a half, maybe you play the Lions. The big hesitation for the professional betters on this is the Cardinals defense.
Everyone agrees with what you just said about the offense.
They think they can play with anybody, right, And we did see a lot of this against the Bills in week one, where they were blowing the Bills out right, but the defense slowly but surely let the Bills back in the game.
And nobody looks at the Bills offense and.
Says, oh, yeah, this is a powerhouse offense right now, it's Josh Allen. The problem with the Cardinals is if they make one mistake.
How do they recover. We saw that with the Bills.
That to me is a better indicator of what this team is than what they did this past week against a completely beaten up Rams team.
They made a.
Mistake, the Bills capitalized, and then the Bills ultimately really ran away with that game. I worry that the Cardinals don't have the defense that can recover against a mistake that the Cardinals offense makes. And the Lions, while they are struggling, are still incredibly talented and they are in a.
Get right situation.
So the wise guys like the home underdog almost always, but it's not like they're rush into the counter.
Okay, there's always a game I want your opinion on and I sort of want you to talk me into it. So I like the Ravens against the Cowboys. You could say, well, Dallas was humiliated losing to the Raiders at home, Baltimore was humiliated. There are a lot of similarities with Dak and Lamar. They both have Super Bowl winning coaches, highly compensated,
high profile, they win their division multiple times. The difference is Lamar is really good against good teams in the AFC against playoff teams in his career, He's nineteen and fourteen Dak and his career against the weaker conference against playoff teams is well below fifty percent. In fact, forty percent of Dak's wins in his career this is remarkable, are against the Giants in Washington, He's twenty three and four. In these big games, it's going to come down to
two competent coaches. Both rosters have holes. I like Lamar in spots like this, not Dak and Mike McCarthy Sharper square.
This is tough one.
Like this line has been bouncing around telling you that there's money come in on the Ravens and then there's money come in on the Cowboys. I can't give you a consensus. There is no consensus. If I looked at Action Network right now and we have the split of number of tickets, like the amount of bets on a game and the amount of money on a game, you would see fifty to fifty to fifty to fifty, Like it is completely down the middle. And that's why, that's
why the game is lined at Ravens minus one. Everything you said about Lamar's true. Also, I think against the NFC he is something like one, something like that, like he's he's great in this spot, There's no doubt about it. I think you got two teams that are suffering from massive identity crises right now. Defensively, the Ravens kind of don't know who they are, you know, without Mike McDaniels, without I mean Mike McDonald without Patrick Queen. Their secondary
isn't as good as it was last year. They're struggling with their offensive line. Their run game, even with Derrick Henry is ish. The Cowboys backfield offensive backfield might be one of the worst in the league. C D Lamb banged up, has a bad ankle. What are the options if you don't have cde Lamb? Their defense has no depth. Micah Parsons is talking about he felt like he was in amaze against the Saints, like it's a fun game to watch. Why do you have to have an opinion
on it, you know what I mean. It's just a hard one to It's a really hard one to handicap.
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Okay, and then finally, there's always a game I miss that you really have a strong opinion about. I love this part. I feel like I'm learning something. I do like the Chargers. I think they have currently a better offensive coach and a better quarterback, and I think their offensive tackles are the best handem in the league and will keep TJ. Watt quiet. But I'm not sure the Chargers can run the ball on Pittsburgh. So I just like the under. I think it's going to be the
lowest scoring game of the weekend. But is there a game I missed so.
Many really and tell me too much?
I mean, the problem is like they're so gross, you know, and it's like I almost feel bad talking about it. The Titans, to me are fascinating. We don't know what Jordan Love and his status is going to be. He did practice yesterday. I don't know if that's so kind of like the decoy, because that would be a pretty aggressive recovery for the Packers, especially when they have an important game in the division coming up the following week. But they had the perfect game plan against the Colts.
You cannot run that same game plan against the Titans. Their defense is just it's really good. Like they're good in the defensive, backfield, they're good up front. They are really good against the run. I think they would cause problems for mlik Willis. I think when you have a team that's zero to two and has not covered the spread, as they have not done with the next game they are sixty percent against the spread, I think it sets up really well for the Titans. My biggest concern is
what is Jordan Love's status? And because of that, this line has moved. Right, It was a three. The wise guys were betting the Titans down to two and a half. Then it got down to two, and since Jordan Love has been seen practicing, it got down to one and a half. My fear, so I would say, if we can get some certainty about Jordan Love, you want to take the Titans if he's not going to be playing. I do like the Titans a ton in this game. I also like the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I looked at that game as well, so did I.
You know, I mean, I just think. And that's another one.
Tell the audience what the number is right now?
The line has been moving. It was it five and a half. It's down to five. Actually I think it was at six, got down to five and a half, now five. The wise guys are also betting on this game. It's a huge pros Joe's game, right in gambling parlance, the pros are the professional betters. The Joe's are, you know, the guys like you and me who don't know anything right, and so the pros are showing that they're all on the Jaguars. The Joe's are showing that they're on the Bills.
But this is another really good spot a winless team. Talk about luck, talk about the factors that have led to the Jaguars being zero to two. Trevor Lawrence has not played great, but they outgained the Browns in that game. The Browns had a great opening series. Everyone is like, Okay, Deshaun Watson might be better. I'm not so sure. I'm probably going to be in the Giants this weekend. But secondary that game, the Browns go three for three on
fourth dout conversions. The Jaguars go one for four for touchdowns in the red zone, like they are going against the Bills team that also has terrible injuries. We talked about the Bucks terrible injuries. Forget about Matt Milano, now Matt Mlano's replacement. Now, guys in the defensive backfield, we still don't know what this team is other than Josh Allen is a really good quarterback who can do everything.
But the Jaguars do have really good aggressive playmakers on both edges of the defensive line.
So a lot of wise guys love for the Jaguars.
All right, give me one more all right.
So we talked about Minnesota, we talked about the Jacks, we talked about Atlanta. We mentioned the Titans in the Broncos. There's two games. They're so gross, Colin like, I hesitate to do it. The wise guys love the Panthers. This, Oh god, I know nobody wants to talk about it. This is the Corner TV game. I'm not even gonna go into why. I'm just telling you they have been betting on the Panthers. Like the line moved from seven to five and a half as soon as Andy Dalton
was announced as the starter. It has now moved down to five. There's a lot of reasons to like Andy Dalton as the starter over Bryce Young, and there's a lot of reasons to now want to play the Panthers. Their offensive line has been playing great. The challenge for them has been Bryce Young is just so inaccurate. So can you get better offensive production of Andy Dalton?
Yes?
Are you going against a team that actually isn't playing as well as the scores would indicate.
Yes.
Will the defense for the Panthers potentially improve if the field position is better because they're getting better opportunities to move the ball down the field, they're at least close to their own fifties, so they can punt it, you know, and get it further into the opponent's end of the field, because I think the opponent's starting field position for the Panthers has been at there at the thirty nine yard line. Just hard to win games. It's hard to defend when
that's the case. So they're on the Panthers. I won't I won't try to convince you. They're also on the Giants, and I guess that. Yeah.
I mean, Daniel Jones was actually pretty solid.
They like the Giants.
They're just not sold on to Sean Watson right at all, and the Browns still have some injury questions on the offensive line. The Giant strength is the interior of their defensive line, best interior defensive lineman in the NFL. So there is some sentiment that the Giants are the right side. And you know, I feel bad. I'm just giving you gross, disgusting things to think about. But we're getting at that point of the season.
Yeah, there's no way I can. I'm just staying away from the Packers. I stayed away during the Colts game. I'm staying away during the Will Levis, who is in the bad Judgment Hall of Fame. I'm just I'm not touched in the packers until everybody's healthy, but sharper square all odds provided by DraftKings. Good stuff, my friend.
How great was that Brian Callahan video of him just losing it and then actually just owning it well the next day in the press compel Okay.
So that's my theory is that if you look at coaches with young quarterbacks, even when they're awful, they're almost apologetic and defend their young quarterbacks. Why is Callahan shredded him twice publicly? He doesn't like him, He's trying to humble him. And this is my knock. I've told the story. I called an NFL coach who I have a relationship with, and he asked me about all the quarterbacks and I said, Will Levis the gun show. I said, that's just bad.
And I said he showed bad judgment in college. He makes really bad throws. I said, he's got a little hitch in his swing. He will not manage. Will's about will He will not manage a game is he plays hero ball? And I said, Brady managed Mahomes manages about eighty percent of this game is we've got a lead, get out of here. Let's get on the plane and get back home. Bryant Callahan is trying to humble Will Levis,
and you do that when your quarterback isn't humble. Because most of these pro athletes that I've dealt with, these young quarterbacks strong dads, coached hard, They've been in a very disciplined quarterback lifestyle since they were nine years old. Most of these kids come in humble as hell. Even the talented ones. You know their dad was often like a pro athlete. They know the game. When they come into the NFL, you're gonna get coached hard. You gotta
practice hard, you gotta work hard. And so I think most coaches feel kind of lucky when they get these young quarterbacks. I mean, see j Stroud had a success, Lamar Jackson had success. Lamar is an incredibly humble guy. Herbert's incredibly humble. For as big a story as Mahomes is for a coach to rip somebody publicly, he doesn't like him. It's personal to me. That feels very personal.
That's the most obvious thing ever, that he doesn't like him. Here's what's challenging. If you want to be an NFL coach, there's only so many jobs. You can always ask yourself, why does Dave Canalis take the Panthers job.
You don't have.
To be an NFL coach and study every second of the all twenty two of every play that Bryce Young played to know that he wasn't going to be the guy. Kudos to him for dumping them and benching him and deciding, Okay, we got a chance. I like what I'm seeing. That's what that says. By the way, I'm not flipping to canals, but there's a connection here. When he benches Bryce Young two games into the season, what he's seeing on film
is the offensive line is playing great. Receivers are getting open when they're not so discouraged they don't run their roots. We've got a chance to be a better team if we get this guy out and give everybody else a little bit more confidence. But between him and Callahan, you're stuck because you have to take an NFL job if you want to be a head coach, and you know, if you're getting that job, you probably have a crappy
quarterback and there's nothing you can do about it. So you're in like the weirdest rock in a hard place because you're getting your dream job and you don't even know if you can succeed because the guy who is quarterback in the team just can't get it done. Oh you're not getting that job unless there's a quarterback. Well, you can't get it done.
And Kanalis was a hot coach, so was Ben Johnson. Ben Johnson said, no, I'm not going to take it. And Detroit has looked like a little off center. So the old saying strike when the iron hot, strike when the iron's hot. Ben Johnson was hot. He doesn't take a job. You come back this year and are like Jared Goff doesn't look as good. So I mean this seat, it's all situational and seasonal these yeah, I mean even defenses.
Great defenses disappear the next year because defensive players get hurt more often, and so you can have a great defense. The Jets had a great defense last year. You look at this year like they don't tackle well, they're bad in space like Sola's defense, and now they're injury riddle.
CJ.
Moseley the guy who's calling plays. So it's like when you're an assistant like Canalis. You say, why would you take that job, because if Baker Mayfield had a crappy year this year, then you're not doing a prospect.
Yeah it's true. Yeah, it's so. It's so difficult.
We're going to hand you the best job in the world, but by the way, you're also going to have to manage the worst quarterback in the.
NFL with the most impulsive owner. Oh my god, I'm not so sure he didn't make the call on Rice Show. To be honest with you.
It would It would be true to form right, everything we've heard is that Bryce Young was not the guy they wanted to draft, but the owner made them draft him. He has not been a guy who has had a great reputation amongst fans and people in the media so far during his reign. If it's funny you mentioned that, because when I heard that he was being benched, I thought that is a ballsy move from a brand new coach with an owner who was known to have strong
opinions and medal. It didn't even occur to me that he would have pulled the trigger on that.
It feels too strong, impulsive, and decisive for a young coach known as a quarterback whisperer to bail and go to an old past his prime, Andy Dalton. It doesn't feel like the move you'd make. You'd make that in week six or seven, maybe near the trade deadline, dangle Bryce Young as a trade.
Week two, you lost to the Chargers.
They look excellent. You lost to Jim Harbaugh.
It's okay, See Colin, this is why you are a savvy inside media player. You think the next level. I'm just a guy sitting in my office in West Harford trying to figure it all out, and I just thought, good for day Canalis?
Good? Did he decide to bench this guy? I like his courage hard.
It's easy to have courage when the owner says, bench that guy exactly all right, my man, all right, brother, I'll see you later the volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and review