Colin Cowherd Podcast - Sharp or Square - Betting NFL Week 7!

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is fighting for its life. It's also number five. You know I'm into number five. I'm sorry, I know sevens. The lucky number five is mine a team that regularly plays in London, a New England team that's limited and actually Trevor Lawrence has not played poorly the last couple of weeks. If it's five, I take the favorite. Last week four and five the Packers was my favorite bet. The game was over eight minutes in probably not sharp, but I love it. Sharper square.

also the Jags have been in London favorite historically. Yeah, thirty five and ten in London, I mean the just winning outright, thirty five and ten in London, some like thirty and fifteen against the spread. It's like it's the right side. It's the nominally better team in a more desperate situation. So yes, it's I mean most wise, guys are like, I'm not really planning I even watching this game. I'm going to sleep in. But if they're gonna bet,

they're gonna bet the Jaguars. You just the Jets. And it made me think of a funny story because that game was so disgusting. The night before the game, if you were betting the Giants at plus three and a half, was also terrible because they were winning. They had won that game like they were the better team. They had Stemy Joe Burrow, they missed field goals. At the end of the game. It was clear they were going to

lose because something funky was going to happen. The Bengals weren't just going to lay down at ten to seven. They were going to do something that sort of recapped the Giants. I'm watching this game, and I feel like you'll appreciate this. It's eleven o'clock at night. I'm watching the game in bed. My wife is sent me, sleeping next to me, and she starts she says something to me, and I'm like, I can't understand what you're saying. What

are you saying? And she starts talking to me about something that has nothing to do with anything, that is a total non sequit or to the day, the weekend, everything, And I go, I can we just not talk about this right now, like we don't need to have this conversation in this second. She goes, that's fine. I understand. My feeling right now is you're probably going to lose this game and you're going to wake up in the morning and people are on Twitter. I'm just going to

tell you you're stupid. And then she rolled over and she went back to bed. That's what they do, by the way. She was right, Yeah, I felt like you would appreciate every single element to that.

you don't duplicate that. We've seen that multiple times this year. Minnesota off of by Detroit off the perfect football game, No thank you. I'll lay the points Vikings now minus one one and a half sharper square.

betting Detroit again. It went back down to two, it went back down to one and a half. So there's a philosophy. There's a theory right now that the professional betters early in the week were betting small amounts of money to bet this game up a little bit so they could come in later in the week when the books take bigger dollar amounts and bet the Detroit Lions much much heavier. Right, The Lions, to me, are the

right side. I think there's a difference between teams that are playing perfect games and teams that are fundamentally as close to perf as you can get. And I like to bet looking inside out. I like to bet offensive line first, and the offensive line for the Detroit Lions is just dominant. They are. And I think the past few weeks, and we talked about this last week with the Lions and the Cowboys, they have figured out how

to play physical, violent football. They've gotten out of the way of sort of trying to figure out if Jared Goff going to win its the game. No, the offensive line is going to wins the game. Running the ball is going to win us the game. Jared Goff will then perform off of those situations that we have set up for him. So offensively, I think this is a

much better team. And I do think Jared Goff and Ben Johnson will know how to scheme against Brian Flores, whose defense has been great, and the offensive line will protect against the pass rush that Flores has been great at generating. The worst unit on this field is going to be the Vikings offense. So if there is any diminished performance from the Lions because of Aden Hutchinson, I do think it's somewhat mitigated by the fact they're not playing a lights out offense and we're all looking to

sell the Vikings. We're trying to figure it out, right, when are we going to sell the Vikings? A lot of wise guys think this is the week.

But it's not a great locker room right now, and the Raiders are not a team that needs to win because they're not going to. It's a distracted team with bad mojo. The Rams now need to go on a street. They're healthier, better coach, better quarterback. In fact, it's the biggest coach quarterback mismatch on the board this week. I have it at minus five sharper square.

Stafford and McVeigh. Nobody really trusts Aidan O'Connell. But the line bumped up for two reasons. One expectation that Cooper Cup might come back. They did think he could come back in week seven, and because the Raiders got blown out by the Steelers. But if you look at that box score, that game was close. It was seven to six at the end of the first half. It was twelve seven when and then three consecutive series is fluky.

Things happened to give the Steelers a huge lead, and even then the Raiders had opportunities to come back, and they were called back for penalties. They fumbled on the one yard line after they had scored a touchdown that was called back. So the game was closer than the score of peer. So I think six and a half is too much. Seattle plus a field goal and Atlanta is interesting. The Seahawks are getting healthy. I know you have a luck rating, and the Saints were called unlucky.

I do think Atlanta's had a few breaks go their way and they're a tad overvalued. I think they win their division, but I actually think even the game against Tampa Bay that they won in overtime, I kind of felt most of the game Tampa was better and has a higher ceiling. I kind of like Seattle in the spot. They've been a funky mess defensively and you think they're not very good. Now they're finally getting their best defenders back and Gino Smith. Atlanta has no pass rush. They

have really good receivers. I like Seattle in the points sharper square ish at two and a half, the wise guys are playing the Falcons. At three, they might play Seattle, they won't play Atlanta. They were kind of hoping it would get to three and a half so they could play Atlanta if they like Seattle. It's because of everything you just said to getting a little bit healthier. Atlanta can generate a pass rush. The Falcons could just as easily be zero to six right now, right And we

talked about this last week. The games they have won. Three games that they won, they had a five percent chance to win those games, sometimes with less than thirty seconds left, and they still won those games. So there has been a lot of sort of luck involved in their season so far. So that is due. They are due for aggression there, even last week against the Panthers, like until Andy Dalton threw that pick yes right into his territory and then the Falcons went on an e

four yard drive. The Panthers were running all over them, and they had a chance to be very close in that game, if not win it out right, So it's a it's a This is a number play entirely two and a half Atlanta three or more Seattle Okay.

They really should have beaten the Bills. Sharper square totally sharp. They like it for everything you just said. The reason they really like it.

shouldn't be. And now you're getting Russell Wilson at a time where they've already lost their right guard, James Daniels, who was graded as the best guard in the NFL before his achilles was injured, and then last week they lost Zach Fraser, who was greater as the fourth best center according to Pro Football Focus in the NFL, which is one of the reasons why their running game had been so powerful and they could get away with justin

fields not being very good. So now you're getting rid of two of the best offensive linemen in the NFL. That is the strength of your team, and you're putting in a quarterback who is not nearly as mobile, yet he's going to have more pressure because the strength of the Jets defense is the interior of their defensive line. So forget about Aaron Rodgers, forget about DeVante Adams. The reason why professional betters are leaning the Jets is because

of those interior factors. And again those are the things that don't get as discussed in sort of the larger platforms. But that's what the betters are looking at. It's what's happening at the center of the Steelers line and who the quarterback is going to be much more than Devanta Adams. And you've seen this number go up even though the majority of the bets have actually come in on the Steelers, but the money the professionals have come in on the Jets.

this is probably the better team. If I get the hook, I'm taking Tampa here. Also, Ravens have been back to back very emotional games. I think you know they always beat the NFC, but sharper square, I'd go I'd go the hook in Tampa.

favorites to cover. Right, So you're talking about teams like the Ravens or the Chiefs or you know, in this case last week, the Lions. Normally the public does not win. So the public is all over the Ravens this week. And when that happens, bookmakers, when the public really cashes in, bookmakers know amateur betters are fat and happy. They're going to take the money they won the week before. They are going to go to the sports book. They are going to bet the favorites again because hey, I just

want how hard can this be? I just won betting the Ravens to win by a touchdown against the Commanders, and they did it. So now they're going to come back and you can see, like the Bucks game, it opened at four and a half, it immediately got that down to three and a half. That's because the wise guys came in on the Bucks and they still like

the Bucks. Baker's the key here. What Baker can do thrown across the middle to god Win and Mike Evans hope because he did have a little bit of a soft tissue injury and so there is some concern he might not play, but assuming he will, what Baker can do across the field in middle of the field against a coverage unit in the Ravens that is bottom third in the league and a pass defense that is giving up the second most passing yards per game in the NFL. The only team horse is the Jaguars. This is a

recipe for Baker to keep this game close. Or Colin, it's a recipe for Baker to break our heart with an interception when the team is down by ten and we need him to score a touchdown to cover the back door.

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and your insight. The last the only time the Texans have really played this year was when they traveled north and face Minnesota and it was a lot of Brian Flores and c. J. Stroud acknowledging I don't even know what I saw. I like Green Bay, I've never loved their defense. Texans getting three. I've got Joe Mixon back a run component. I want your opinion on this, Like it's telling me to bet Texans, but I think Jordan

Love is such a special player. But Demiko Ryans could do a Brian Flores to Jordan Love like Flores did to C. J. Stroud. Tell me that Texans is the right side.

and that's what's fascinating here. So it's a really hard game, and there's been a huge debate in the professional betting community about which is the right side. But if you're getting the Packers at two and a half, people want to make that The professionals want to make that bet.

It can't continue to be this way. But it's Patrick Mahomes who finds a way to get out of the pocket, find Travis Kelcey in his zone. When Travis Kelcey hasn't caught two passes the entire game. All of a sudden, the last drive they need a field goal, they're driving down the field, they get the field goal. Quirky things happen. So it's a really hard game, Like people don't want to really invest in this game. I mean I almost like I'm sick to my stomach telling you this. But

the Wise guys are all over the browns now plum. Yeah, plus five and a half against the Bengals. Oh, I know, I know, Oh Crows. I mean they just traded to Marii Cooper. Well, look, so what happened was this line was at five and a half and the Wise guys were already trending towards the Brown.

how the wise guys look at this. So they bought the Browns at six and a half, they bought the Browns again at six. It's back down to five and a half. There's a lot of stuff that they like about betting the Browns. The Browns have not had an offensive line that was healthy this entire year. This weekend, they should be getting Jack Conklin back. That's huge for

their offensive line. Nick Chubb should be back. I'm not saying Nick Chubb makes them a much more superior team, but it does give them an opportunity to start playing a little bit more like Kevin Stefanski wants to play these games and take the ball out of de Shaun Watson's hands. At the very least, maybe Deshaun Watson won't be staring at the pass rush because he won't be so afraid because Jack Conklin is playing again. So I

do like that that is happening. There's some good health things on the offense side of the ball, and their defense is getting healthier too. And you got a top five pass rush defense, you got Miles Garrett in a divisional game. In this situation with the Bengals team, that still isn't that good, right? They shouldn't be a five and a half point favorite. It's terrible. You don't want to bet the bad quarterback against one of the best quarterbacks.

I'm not asking you to do it. I'm just telling you what the professionals are doing.

great situation to be on the side of. If you're a professional, if you're a better right, you want to be against the public in most situations. This number has been kind of staying at one and a half, which tells you that the wise guys have been coming in in on the Niners. So if they're closing their eyes looking at rosters, looking at data, they're betting the Niners. If they're eyes wide open seeing who's on the field, they're betting the Chiefs.