Colin Cowherd Podcast - Sharp or Square - Betting NFL Week 12!

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So it's twenty twenty four, and let's talk about something really really important. If you're ever injured, check out Morgan and Morgan's America's largest injury law firm, and they're there for you. Over one hundred offices nationwide. Think about that, more than a thousand lawyers with over twenty billion. That's a b twenty billion dollars recovered for over five hundred thousand clients. Things happen in life unexpectedly. Submitting an injury

Now, no I'm familiar. I've heard it's big.

People are talking. So my take is what you don't want to become is the NBA a very strong top, a soft middle, and ten teams to eleven teams at the bottom that are unwatchable and non competitive, mostly the Eastern Conference. Now, and I said, as the NFL has become more quarterback centric based on a CTE lawsuit and changes of rules pivoting to the offense, that we are

Well, yeah, it's not sharp. The way you said it, it's like you're waiting for me to tell you. Yeah, you know what, Colin. The Wise guys are with you. This is the week where they've decided they love massive divisional favorites.

I'm here to tell you they don't. The Wise Guys like the Cowboys.

And part of this is, yes, the number is so big, but there's also some regression from Jaden Daniels. Right, he was not very good against the Eagles last week on Thursday Night.

In fact, like.

Since that opening four game stretch where he was completing eighty percent of his passes, he has yet to complete more than seventy percent of his passes in a game.

And so you have to ask yourself, as.

He started to come back down to earth, has teams started to figure him out.

That's really the key to this game.

And look, you can look at what the Cowboys did last week and say, okay, were they competitive in the first half? Yes, did Cooper Rush show some flashes of being able to be a competitive, too competent quarterback in the NFL. Certainly more than a lot of other backups in the league, and frankly a lot of the starters

And by the way, the Rookie of.

The Year ares odds are a great way to look at that, right, how much is bo Nicks crept up in behind Jayden Daniels in the Rookie of the Year conversation? So the market is starting to recognize some of that.

So I like the Bears plus three and a half hosting the Vikings. Lost in the blocked kick was that they thoroughly dominated Green Bay, a well coached team that they schemed up, layups, easy completions. Chicago looked good, they just didn't finish well. Minnesota. You always talk about the luck ratings. You know, I love Sam Darnold, but boy, they leave a lot of points on the on the floor. God. I mean that Jacksonville game was maybe that could have

So it's sharp ish. Don't forget this line opened at five. So the wise guys bet at five, they bet at four and a half, they better at four. They're still betting it a little bit at three at three and a half. If it gets any further than this, if I'm saying to you, you want to publicly announce you are locking in the Bears at three and a half, you don't want to say you're on the Bears at three. You're not wrong about Sam Donald and how lucky he's

What you just said. He looked better.

He was getting rid of the ball in less than two and a half seconds. It's the first time he's been doing that, right, Can they really block against a Minnesota Vikings defense that is so much more complex than the Packers Brian Flores destroys rookie quarterbacks and Caleb Williams this season, when he is facing a team that has a sack percentage, which is basically the number of defensive players that end in a sack, When he's facing a team that is a sack percentage of more than two

Cardinals plus one. Now at the Seahawks, I've said this for the last year. I'm not sure what Seattle is. I think they're well coached, I'm not sure of it. Sometimes they're smartly quarterbacks, sometimes they're not. I think they'll move dk Metcalf at some point in the near future. He always seems unhappy. I know exactly what Arizona is great. Coseel said it on my show this week. They don't

So it's sharp, but it's been bouncing around. And I agree with you about the identity. The Cardinals know exactly who they are right they are even on defense, they are still a physical football team. James Connor is a really violent runner, and they know if they are able to get him the ball and be effective in the running game, that makes Kyler that much more effective in the passing game.

And they're just going to be the better team.

Because of those two players, especially against a team like the Seahawks, which just last week before the game against the Niners, they released their leading tackler. Like that tells you how much they don't know who they are. Is like, they're making pretty big personnel moves coming out of a buy in advance of a huge division game. And I would not take yet anything from the Seahawks win against the Niners. It's another weird sort of circumstance for the

I like green Bay at home minus one and a half. Now, if Bosa doesn't play, this defense is very good. It's just not. I don't know if it's smartly schemed, it's okay. Fred Warner's numbers are down. Bosa is really the lynchpin of the defense, and when he's out and he's banged up consistently, it's not very good. And I say this about San Francisco. You are what your record is. They're a five and five football team, and they're not very good on special teams. They don't get the consistent pass rush.

They were kind of waiting on the Brock Party news because it leaked out that he had a sore shoulder and was going to be day to day. He practiced yesterday and looked fine. So it's really not about Nick Bosa. Here was about brock Purty and the wise guys. Look at the Niners. You just mentioned luck. There's no bigger difference this week in sort of our luck rankings than the Packers, who are at the top of the luck rankings with how lucky they've gotten this year in games.

Rams didn't look great and they have no home field advantage. I like Philly minus two and a half, it'll be a sixty to seventy percent Philadelphia crowd. The Rams defense is very interesting but incredibly young, and they're kind of pedestrian on offense with a quarterback that doesn't move particularly well. I think rosters it's a mismatch. It'll be actually a semi home field advantage for Philadelphia. They're hummon. I don't

Well, it's not bigger because it keeps bouncing around. There's no consensus here. We talked about this on the Favorites today, that there's no real wise guy side. They've come in on the Rams when it's at three, They've come in on the Eagles when it's at two and a half, and that's basically how it's going to go. I'm with you. I love the Eagles here. I've been on the Rams the past two weeks. I felt like they were in good spots against the Dolphins, lost it, in good spots

So I'm with you. I like the Eagles here. I think it's a good spot for them.

Ravens off a wildly emotional Pittsburgh game, go back on the road. The Chargers, we said this a month ago, now that they're healthy, are a really good football team. Special teams offense. They're resourceful on offense, they're physical on defense. They're getting two and a half. Baltimore does not have like a Pittsburgh, Green Bay, San Francisco crowd, so it will be mostly a Chargers fan base at home again. Chargers come off a win, feeling good about themselves and comfortable.

Two and a half is not where the wise guys like it. They loved it at three. I think if you're playing at two and a half, you're kind of tempting fate, right, you would expect this to be a field goal game. We both love the Chargers. We've talked about how much we love the Chargers. We've played the Chargers in multiple spots this season. Defensively they're great, but

So at two and a half, it's just not very sure.

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I like the Patriots plus seven and a half as Dolphins divisional rivalry game. I think. I think Drake May is finding himself. Miami is one of those teams where you're never quite sure exactly what you get. They blow more opportunities than they should. I think Miami wins this game. But this just feels like an obvious sharp side New England playing hard. People playing for stuff here, young team,

Yeah, this is an eye test game where at seven and a half, the wise guys like the Patriots.

There's no doubt about it.

And if you've watched the Dolphins the past two weeks. They were fine against the Rams. Their defensive line played great, they got to Matthew Stafford, but the Rams gave that game away five field goals. They couldn't score touchdowns, they were missing snaps, they were thrown tipped interceptions.

They did not play well.

And if you look at the game against the Raiders last week, the Dolphins were only up by five points with three and a half minutes left, there was a miracle defensive pass interference against the Raiders. They gave the Dolphins the ball and converted a third down for them instead of getting the Raiders the ball back, and that was sort of the end of the game, and they ended up scoring thirty five points or whatever it is.

But they were up by five points.

The Raiders are going to cover that game, and if they'd gotten the ball back, potentially won that game. So I just haven't been impressed with the Dolphins, whereas I have been really impressed with Drake may He's just a gamer. And I think the biggest problem for this Patriots team is Gerard Mayo is such a conservative play caller. It doesn't seem to really know how to run the math. Yet when you're going for two, should you go for one, when do you want to go forward?

And fourth down?

He's coaching like a defensive coordinator in key sort of pivot spots for the game, and that's where the biggest challenge comes in for the Patriots to cover.

But the wise guys are with you. They like the seven and a half.

I like the Colts at home getting seven and a half. Lions. Remember they have to play on Thanksgiving, and they're you know, they're playing perfect football. The Colts. I thought Anthony Richardson looked as good as he has ever looked. I think they've kind of figured out what he is. Some of that is the Jets aren't very good, but I've been saying this for a month. I like the Colts personnel. I really do like both of their lines, especially their

Sharper Square couldn't be sharper sharpest player of the week.

Like the Colts are one of those teams where a lot of wise guys when they look at this, certainly how I think about it when I'm deciding if I want to bet one of these ugly dogs, is do I believe this is sort of the right side from a number perspective. Is the team they are playing against going to have an overinflated number because they're public because of what they've been doing. The answer to that is, yes, nobody is winning at a better clip than the Lions.

Great. I like the Colts here. Number two.

Do I believe there's a part of the game where they can be dominant. You just mentioned their offensive line, best run blocking unit in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has been playing great, and I think with Anthony Richardson, I think he played great last week. I think with his ability to run against a defensive front that cannot get pressure since Aden Hutchinson, they just can't. Every stat will show you they are not a team that's getting a lot of pressure.

So that's number two. I'd like that number three.

There are a ton of trends that back this up, and sometimes trends can be self fulfilling, but in this case, like you got teams who are road favorites the game after being a double digit favorite in any location. They've had significant against the spread struggles the past decade, forty

So checks out all the boxes.

Okay, a game I want you to talk. Be into Broncos minus six at the Raiders. I know it's a divisional rivalry, but when you have young quarterbacks and young teams growing in confidence, sometimes the markets behind them. Denver's a really interesting team right now, so we know their defense has been exceptional. Bon Nicks is making leaps like big, no turnovers, moving well. Sean Payton texts me this week and he's like, you know, you, guys, his arm is

Yeah, that's some of the feedback I've been getting to this week is Wise guys continue to be really impressed with the Broncos and feel like they have been emboldened by that Chiefs loss. And we saw this week right like the Wise guys, they were coming all over on the on the Broncos. They loved the Broncos in that game and that and it matched right like it was a Falcons team that was coming in and they were supposed to be a good team and the Broncos blew

Okay, and finally give me a game I miss. I like Kansas City off a loss minus eleven at Carolina, but I'll stay away. But I think generally, you know, Andy Reid doesn't lose. Patrick Mahomes doesn't lose, even though he's not a great big favorite. Carolina is a bad team, and Kansas City's pissed off, so I kind of like him. But give me something else.

Well, look, it's Kansas City and Carolina. I hate to say, Like the wise guys like Carolina here. They like what they've seen from Bryce Young in the past two weeks that he played. They like the idea that this is also a really good run blocking unit. And while the Chiefs run blocking run stopping defense is elite, there's still an opportunity here for the Chiefs, and if they aren't running a very well, they have liked what they've seen.

Isn't very good.

You got to go on the road win is a double digit favorite. It's just a bad spot and historically now this year, double digit favorites are rushing like it's been.

That's my take. At the top of this podcast was the separate we're getting to be the NBA. The difference between Denver and Orlando is significant.

Yes, So let me give you a couple of stats here then if you're going to be talking about this, because it helps illuminate it a little bit.

So double digit favorites are five.

To oh this year, so the first time they've been undefeated, not against the spread, just undefeated this late in the year and twenty seasons. Only the second time in the past forty seasons. Here's how extraordinary this is. Though they are undefeated against the spread. For that, you have to go back to nineteen fifty that is the last time double digit favorites were undefeated against the spread through eleven weeks.

People were betting pith helmets and bales of hay.

I mean, that was just exactly and Wooden Nichols, you know, Chad, Oh yeah, So they're going to be on this. So but the point is the wise guys are going to be on the Panthers. They're going to bet against the trend. Same thing with the Titans, by the way, they don't love it, but they're going to bet against how bad the Titans have been against the spread. They're going to bet against the inflation you get from the Texans beating the Cowboys in prime time. They haven't been impressed. We

Chad Melman, good to you, Good see anybody.

Good to see you too, brother.

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