Colin Cowherd Podcast - Rams Bury The Niners, Belichick One And Done? Sharp Or Square - Betting NFL Week 15!

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and some Belichick thoughts something was uncovered tonight. That's fascinating. Chad Millman, Sharper Square. We're gonna also talk Belichick and UFOs. You know why not. So the Rams beat the forty nine ers twelve to six. So the first thing is I did I stayed away from this game. I wouldn't touch it. I could have done a DraftKings bet, I said, I there's too many injuries, weather, it's shaky, and the

Rams just played a flawless football game against Buffalo. Then you got to get on a plane Wednesday, flight to arrival division game like added no what? I just I knew the Rams were gonna be off. You cannot play a game against a team like Buffalo, a high stakes game and be flawless, even with men. This isn't college. But to go on the road against your rival Green Laws back Bosa played. So they won and you have to be healthy. But they won and you have to

be happy. But here's the thing. So all these wide receivers, do you know Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase, and Deebo Samuel's record this year seventeen and twenty three. Top five rushing teams are all right now in the playoffs, you gotta be careful with DIVA wide receivers. Deebo wants the ball. Oh Debo can't catch the ball tonight on an underneath route where he had a chance to peel off a huge play, potentially a touchdown, and they settled for a

field goal. You could clearly see the Niners trying to appease Debo and get in the ball and force it. I like him better as a running back than a receiver anyway. I think his yards after the catch and his running ability is much greater than his separation ability. I think he's become sort of a banged up poor man's and Kwon Bolden that you know doesn't separate. But he's physically tough and a nice player. But this is so you have young brock Purdy, you know, doesn't want

to lose Debo. Ayyuk's already out for the year. Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey hurt. So Deebo picks the worst time to, you know, be high maintenance because you know pretty's young. He doesn't have Ayyuk. You know, Kittle is tremendous, but a lot of teams now are taking him out and spending a lot of coverage on him. So they forced a debo and this is what you get. Biggest game of the year for the Niners, one hundred and ninety seven total yards. You know it, brock pretty in thirteen starts.

Everybody talks about him getting paid big money. It's a big mistake. I don't buy it. I never have. Doesn't have Christian McCaffrey, doesn't have Trent Williams in thirteen starts this year, fifteen touchdowns, nine picks, and you want to pay him fifty five million dollars the minute you take away his best players. He is a guy. He didn't get passed by everybody in this draft. You know, during Tom Brady's run, there were more sleepers. You find occasional sleepers,

but scouting departments now are much more sophisticated. You know, in Brady's era, you didn't have all the YouTube stuff. You didn't have the ability to see some of these college games. They're all on television. Now, it's just really hard to hide people. Staffs are bigger, Scouting departments are bigger. There's just more sophistication. You know, Rock Purty dropped to the seventh round. He's small, he doesn't have a big arm.

He's athletic but not special. Hands are a bit small, you know, And you're watching a guy that when you lose people, what do you get? And conversely, tonight, Matt Stafford very very rough first half. I mean it was like the Niners defense had the Rams playbook. They knew where he was. He was just trying to beg in to throw an interception. And yet he showed exactly why he's a real franchise player on those big drives late third, early fourth quarter, using his feet two or three times

ducking out of stuff, really big third down throw. I wrote this big third down throw to Colby Parkinson late whereas pretty previously in the fourth quarter had a really really ugly end zone pick. You saw the real separation here Rams, short week of a highly emotional game on the road division rival. Neither team has their fastball. Stafford in the second half after a shaky first really made

all the big throws. And because the coaches are both great, the offensive lines are good, not great, And that's the separation between the two. Yeah, I'm looking at this two big drives Stafford in the second half. That's the ball game. And you know, people, people think I'm anti Purty no, but somebody's got to pop the balloon on this nonsense. I think Pretty is a less athletic Dak. Now, Dak after a second surgery here is going to be even

less athletic. He lost mobility after his first surgery. He'll be less athletic. You're seeing what it's doing to Aaron Rodgers. You're saying what it's doing to Kirk Cousins. He's younger, but he won't be the same. And this is what holds the Cowboys back. They're paying a B quarterback A plus money. If you pay Pretty A minus money, he's a he's a B quarterback. You just still want to get into that space. Pittsburg will probably pay Russell Wilson.

They're going to pay him B quarterback money. Darnold could be franchise tag for forty million, forty one million, but that's B quarterback money. And I've said this, I wrote the Niners obituary three or four weeks ago. I don't think this is a tweak. I don't think it's a tweak. I think I both Ayuk and Deebo are now pretty verbal. Don't neither seems terribly happy. Kittle's horrific, but he's a tight end. He is aging. Trent Williams doesn't have much left on the tires, so I think they have to

rebuild both offensive lines. And conversely, the Rams are really well coached. I said, outside of the Lions, I'm not sure there's a team in the league that has a better offensive head coach, quarterback, star running back, and two elite receivers. And they're doing it without Tyler higgsby their top tight end, who is coming back soon. So is the Rams. Offensive line has gotten healthier over the last month. Stafford's been exceptional. You noticed it tonight. He had better protection.

Now they're getting their tight end back to go along with Colby Parkinson and David Allen, So all of a sudden, now the Rams are healthy down the stretch, and I think they can play with anybody. Now. They're defense, they're a little like the Packers. They feel like they're a tad young. The Packers are young on offense. The Rams feel a little young on defense, and they still need a number one corner in the draft. But this is a real RAMS team, and I think they solidified their

playoffs tonight. It's a quarterback coach league, and nothing against Shanahan, but he's got pretty and Stafford and McVeigh are another level. So congratulations. So I want to add this because this came down tonight. So Chad Melbourne and I talks in Belichick, but I didn't have this information. So I made the prediction today on FS one. I said, my take is Bill Belichick, easy schedule Carolina. It's going to win eight or nine games and maybe get to the playoff, but

get to a big Bowl. But I don't necessarily think he'll coach in that bowl. I think Belichick is going to get irritated. His coaching and his structure and the personnel with Mike Lombardi will be fine. I don't think those guys are long term fits at the college level. They've got a very Charlie weissfield but even more blunt, and Belichick's got so much power, and because Lombardi's his friend, Lombardi's got power. I think they'll it could be pretty rough.

They're pretty terse, blunt, you know, outspoken guys, both very very talented. I know Mike Lombardi is very talented guy, and I wish him both well. But it comes out tonight. Belichick Steele has a buyout of only one million dollars and he can leave after June first this year. Now, he's not going to duh and nobody hires a coach after June first, obviously, But I said today, I think he's going to coach one year and go back and get an offer in the NFL. And I think he's

going to hand it over to his son. So there's some things that will come out in the contract. And I do think Bill wanted the Bear's job. They're not interested. I think he's really interested in the Jacksonville job. They're not interested. Mike Rabel. By the way, and I talked to Mike Brabel for about fifteen minutes this morning, and I'm not going to give a lie details of that, but you know, one of the things I told Mike,

I said, you're now the number one candidate. I'm just not sure there are any jobs worthy of your coaching ability. I think next year is a much more interesting year. If you look at Zach Taylor Cincinnati, I think he'll retain his job. I'm not sure if he'll retain it if the Bengals have another season like this, keep your eye on that. I think Mike McCarthy will keep his job potentially, and so will Brian Dable. But both the Giants with a Shador Sanders at quarterback and the Cowboys

could have openings. I think the openings this year too many impulsive odd ownership executive areas Jets, Bears, Jacksonville. But Belichick say it again. I said it on the air today. I think he'll stay one year in Bolt his contract. He could bolt after June first this year. He's not going to. But my prediction he'll leave after one year. And Bill Parcells twice broadcasting Bolted told people I'm going to stay at Bolted. Bill's a coach. Sean Payton stayed

for a year, loved it. I mean, Sean really loved working as an analyst. He left Bill Belichick's coach, and I do think he'll I mean, I saw and talked at length today about the schedule at North Carolina. The a SEC is so bad. I mean, he gets Clemson at home. They're not another game that he can't win. Syracuse on the road could be little dicey, but so

it's just interesting. In order for that to be in the contract, Bill Belichick demanded that it was in the contract because, as I told you, Jimmy Sexton, the top agent in college football, he's not sending his top clients there. And Belichick's not represented by Jimmy Sexton. So this is not a very highly coveted job because the push and

pull between kind of academics and football. The chancellor, I think it's always been a little bit of a sleeping giant, but it's had some good years with mac Brown the first time and mac Brown the second time. But to get that in the contract, you wanted it in the contract and demanded it be in the contract. Okay, I've never seen a contract stipulation like that that he could leave basically after June first, and again, he's not leading this year. That's never what I said, but I do

my prediction he will leave after one year. He would deny that, obviously, But college football is I mean, you're seeing on a weekly basis guys that love college football, young coaches talk about how frustrating the portal, the lack of regulations, and the NIL is. I still contend the NIL should have about an eighteen million dollars salary cap. NFL's got one. Otherwise you're going to get a separation of Texas Band forty million and spending three I just

it will be. It will be, you know, even the disparity between the top and the bottom will be even greater than it is now. And it's pretty great now. So that's the latest. Congrats to the Rams, gutt you win, Stavord and McVeigh. That's why you pay him the big bucks. Belichick's deal, that is a very interesting clause, one that he wanted or he wouldn't have fought for it, and

one that North Carolina agreed with. North Carolina is telling you, hey, just bringing you on campus, getting the publicity, elevating our nil from four million to eighteen to twenty million, adding a professional structure to our program. Hey, we appreciate it. We need that the world's changing and we're not ready for it. And if you're willing in one year, give us at least one full year. And I think even though that's in the contract, I think it's understood. Bill

wouldn't bolt June second. Nobody's hiring coaches. Then all right, Chad Millman, here we go. Well, It's the most wonderful time of the year for getting in on all the basketball, football hockey action at DraftKings sports Book. It's the season of giving, so we're being gifted college football and basketball, football, basketball pro hockey to almost twenty four seven. It's an absolutely great time of the year. So a lot of

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Nobody dropped a pass, ball, never hit the turf, no holding. It was a thing of art. And it's interesting because now this week you get the Bills getting two and a half at the Lions, and I like the Bills here, use they're getting Kincaid, the tight end is healthy, they're getting Coleman back. It was almost as if it was this Sandwich game, even though it's McVeigh and Stafford. You know, Buffalo travels west. They know half the stadium is going

to be theirs. They're looking at that Detroit game even though it's not an AFC or a divisional game. And they had a couple of guys on the cusp that could play or not, and they elected not, and they got caught flat footed when the Rams played a flawless game. So I like Buffalo plus two and a half now sharper square.

and a half. You start to see the pressure point you'll find an equal number who still like the Lions at two and a half, and they take it up to three, and you'll find the number of wise guys who are coming in at two and a half on the Bills and liking the Bills because they like Josh Allen. I will tell you I'm a Lions backer. In this game, I bettered at one and a half, I bettered at two. As healthy as the Bills are starting to get with players coming back, this may be the healthiest the Lions

have been in eight weeks. They could get a lot of guys back on the defensive line that has just been decimated over the past three to four weeks. Also, the Lions haven't played on the road since November twenty fourth at the Colts. They haven't played period for ten days. You talk about the Bills, they just had a gauntlet, right, They had the Chiefs, they had the Niners. Those were massive games for them, getting over huge humps. They go on the road, have an intense, nearly perfect game that

just isn't perfect enough against the Rams. Now they got to go on the road again against what might be the best team in the NFL, and they could face them in the Super Bowl. So you know you're not wrong by betting the Bills at two and a half. But if you said I like the Lions, you'd be on the sharp side too. It's a pretty even split at this number. Just at this number.

Jalen hurts from the hocket. I mean, AJ Brown's not happy he's only getting six and a half targets. Mike Tomlin is the best underdog coach in the league. Four and a half points. These two don't play very often. It feels like a lot of points to a very good roster. Even if Pittsburgh lost, If Pickens plays, they have enough big play ability to back door cover. The line seems out of whack. I'll take the Steelers Sharper square.

You win fifty three percent of your bets. You're an incredible sports better, right, that's what you're looking for. So when we talk about trends, and we talk about analytics on certain opportunities and metrics and betting, if we can find a trend that is fifty six percent against the spread over in historically relevant period of time, you tend to want to play that if all the other factors are in your direction. Tomlin, he's sixty plus percent in

just about every category. As an underdog, you say, all right, between three and seven two key numbers, sixty seven percent, you say on the road, as a dog sixty four percent, like you can't name a category where he's not sixty

plus percent. And then if you look at the matchup too, you mentioned Saquan right, the Eagles are the only team in the NFL that is running the ball at a higher percenters and they're passing the ball, and I would not think, oh my god, Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown there's you know, strife and now they're getting along again. Doesn't mean that Kellen Moore is going to change this offense and all of a sudden try to make it so. AJ Brown is getting more and more touches. This is

who they are. Jalen Hurst has throwing the fewest passes in the NFL this year, So I would expect a little scoring game wise. Guys are expecting a little scoring game that plays to the advantage of the team that is more than a field goal underdog.

around with their defense. Is I think Anthony Richardson is struggling with Shane steikn Look what Shane Steiken did with Gardner Minshew Okay, Shane Steiken as a rookie with Justin Herbert set records made Jalen Hurts an MVP level player and he's pretty average from the pocket. That passing game is limited, and I think it's limited because Anthony Richardson may not be a pro starting quarterback. I get an experience coach an excellent defense at home against a Dome team.

You know, I love the number four. It's probably square, but I like Denver. Here, give me Sean Payton, Shanahan, McVeigh read extra time, Sharper square.

a forty four percent clip against the spread. So there's one trend to help the cause of the cults. But also, I don't know that wise guys agree with you about Anthony Richardson. I think there's a little bit of Bryce Young sort of in the way he's come back from being benched. Since he's come back, eighth rated passer to Pro Football Focus, fourth in big plays according to Pro Football Focus, big play throws according to Pro Football Focus. So it's not as bad as you would think. And

I do think there's something key here. Remember what happened with the Browns against the Broncos on that in that primetime game, they didn't have Riley Moss at cornerback. They had William Vance. Will In Vance he might have still he might still be giving up touchdowns to Jerry Judy as we speak, like he was getting torched in that game. Riley Moss is the only guy who didn't practice this

week for the Broncos. So if he's not playing, I think that's a severely diminished defense and it impacts what they can do all across the board. So there's trend reasons. There's inflation reasons. The line is just too high the wise guys think uh. And there's some matchup reasons.

power run team. We do have weapons over the top, but we're not going to let our quarterback throw more than like twenty two to twenty four times, and we're going to reduce the errors and when green Bay does reduce the errors. They're really really good football team. I like Seattle. I still don't think they're an elite team. I think they're I think they're a playoff team, maybe in a OK division. I think green Bay is absolutely

a playoff team in an excellent division. I like green Bay minus two and a half Sharper.

They are battle tested every single week. The Seahawks, they're winning a flukey game against the Cardinals a few weeks ago, then they're getting the Cardinals in a class at Kyler Murray game last week, And they won a miraculous game against the Jets, which they should have lost, but they got Leonard Williams running a pick six back for you know, ninety something yards, So they're much better teams since the buy and credit to their coaching staff and everything they've done,

and they've improved their defense significantly and their offense. By the way, you know Zach Charbiney and what he did last week was a great match for how they want to build their running scheme. But the wise guys like the Packers here just so it's a better team. And by the way, Matt Lafleor is a wizard when it

comes to covering the spread. It's very possible when fifteen years if Matt laflour is still coaching the Packers, he's got Mike Tomlin like stats as a favorite and as an underdog covering the spread.

do think they'll get back on track. I do think they have a very good roster. This is again seems out of whack six and a half. I mean, I think it's I honestly see it as a go either way game in the fourth quarter. Probably take the better coaching staff, but sharper square Bears plus the points.

nineteen yards, whereas the Vikings. You're right, that game was tied and they really blew it open in the fourth quarter because of a couple bad plays and turnovers on the part of the Falcons, not because of anything magical that the Vikings did to run away with it, even though Sam Darnold had an incredible game, But they have had their hiccups. Brian Flor's defense has not been as good in the second half of the year as it was in the first half of the year. So yes,

you're on the sharp side, but it's a caution. Know that if you're playing this number, you've given away some value.

is Tennessee plus four and a half. The side here is that the game I'm missing, well, certainly it's a side like it was at five and it's come down.

They can't really run the ball, they don't have a screen game, they don't really have play action to speak of. All of those things that could slow down a better than average defense in the Titans, and they have no defense to speak of. The problem is Will Levis. He's not any better than Cooper Rush. Right, He's got a better arm. Maybe he can fling it downfield further, but he couldn't even beat up on the Jaguars at home

last week despite so many opportunities. So you're kind of banking on the fact you're hoping that when there's an opening, Will Levis can convert. You're going to take the Titans, because if you're a better that's what you do.

Mike Tomlin as an underdog. I said, percentage wise, if something is happening six out of ten times, which is basically what is happening with both of those categories, Tomlin is a dog, Mahomes is a favorite of more than three, it manages that four times those bets are going to lose this year that they haven't been losing at all, And so wise guys know in this spot, the spot is to play Cleveland. But it's a little bit scarier because you keep waiting for the other shoot to drop.

A lot of guys, including myself, about what happened last week against the Chargers.

slinging it against a wonky defensive backfield, let's talk about jams. Now, are you potentially going to suffer a pick six that can ruin it for you? Sure, but the wise guys are willing to literally make that bet. So they're playing Cleveland.

You get an Ohio State team that's got a little insecurity and lack of identity off a historically bad loss, so they'll play with incredible intensity and focus. You know, Ohio State really is coming with their hair on fire. Yeah, and now Ohio State's O line is the weak unit on their roster, and the D line for the volunteers is the strength of their roster. The weather could play aff factor. Ohio State's greatest asset is their vertical nature.

On the perimeter. It could be thirty eight degrees and windy. I looked at the forecast. Now it's fourteen days out or twelve days or ten days. I looked at it about four days ago and I'm like, oh, it's going to be forty one degrees and wet. How does the betting community or have they looked at that game?

and tickets are on Tennessee. I also think a week spot for the for Ohio State is their quarterback, Like he's not sort of an elite passer who can take advantage of the talent they have, the elite talent, you know, top round, first round draft pick talent they have at Ohio State. You and I have talked about Ohio State a lot and Ryan Day. The AD came out today and said he supports Ryan Day.

an eighty twenty transfer portal team. I don't even think they're going to fake it because I don't really think this is a long term proposition. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if after a year Belichick moves back to the Pro League and his son takes over. I really don't see this as a long term proposition. I think the administration, the transfer portal, the fluid nil the needy donors,

clueless administrators, angry lacrosse coach who's not getting attention. I could see Belichick after a year saying, guys, I got nine wins, ten wins, I'm back to the NFL over under six and a half I thought was like and generally I bet unders on future bets like this year, I took Denver in the over. Last year I took Rams in the over. I think there's about one gem. Three years ago I took Minnesota. They became thirteen and three.

Got those right. I also like Washington, but generally there's about one great over a year, and then I just bet unders. Is the betting community reacting to all six and a half seems in a really really weak conference, seems weirdly low.

GMS in. He's basically getting the old band back together right from the Patriot circa, you know, two thousand and five. I think it's it's fundamentally brilliant because he's going to run it the way he said the other day on McAfee, like he's going to run it like it's a professional organization, which is what's driving a lot of the college coaches out. So this is a huge advantage for him. He's managing a salary cap. He's trying to bring in the best

possible talent that are free agents within the college football community. Like, this is what the guy has been doing for years, and he will be able to do it in a way that, at least for a year or two, will have the shine of Bill Belichick, greatest coach ever, and there will be so many people who are high profile players who are going to be interested in seeing what that experience is like. Can he bradify anybody? I think it's great. So as a fun flyer, for sure, I would take over six and a half.

high school recruiting and a great staff. But if you go back to the first two games for Oregon, they were awful because they were moving around offensive line pieces. They just on sheer talent got away with it. LSU and USC did not. Colorado did not eventually, So the transfer portal, even for the teams that win with it, I mean Ohio State, Will Howard's not as good as

they thought. He was passing against big twelve teams. What do you know, Big ten defenses are better, Big ten stadiums are louder, Big ten defensive coaching staffs are better. Will Howard looks really ordinary. He didn't at Kansas State. I watched them and thought it was a great pickup.

So it's interesting the transfer portal. Belichick, though, has dealt with pro athletes, and that's essentially like Ole Miss. They just went and bought a pro team and Lane Kiffin, by the way, that's why it's worked because he's got pro experience. So my guess is the personal and coaching will work. I think the personality fit. You know, he's kind of a terse Northeast, confrontational guy. And you know these colleges, I forget the word woke. You know, they're

a little PC and people they're very tribal. People have their territory and you go, you walk in. It's not just the professors who are tenured. You have decade old administrators. He does not care about that. He's not going to any volleyball galas. He doesn't care. So I can see that really wearing him and UNC out in eighteen months.

His dad was essentially his professor, right, And so I do think there was something for Belichick about going to college and being able to shape people from the beginning. Remember, he was drafting guys that he could turn into Super Bowl champions, Chuck Knowle, the Chuck no Way was draft guys who you can mold, who can turn into the players you want them to be, who don't have bad habits.

I wrote a whole book about this, about the Steelers and the Cowboys rivalry, and Chuck Noll was brilliant at this. So Belichick going to college, even if he's getting guys from a transfer portal, if you're going to play for Belichick, you want a certain style of coaching and you want to know what it takes to get the NFL. You are going to be listening to what bell Belichick and whoever he puts on staff with him will be saying

you will be moldable, you will be coachable. And I think if you're North Carolina, you know what you're getting and you're staying out of the way. And if it's a year, if it's two years, whatever it is, you're not going to get gruff from ten yured professors. You're not going to get gruff from people who don't care about football and are annoyed at the attention he's getting.

You know what you're getting with Bill Belichick, and you're going to suck it up and accept it, and he's going to bring you victories and shine to your football program until he decides to go back the NFL and get down Shower's record.

hide technology. They did this with a stealth for years, So I basically think these are super drones that we're experimenting with, our government is experimenting with, and they put him in a high a location with a lot of media by the water and to see the reaction from

people and see how they look, how people react. They're super drones, drones that our government's been working on, and they probably one hundred and fifty miles offshore, probably release them, you know, one of our you know, giant jets goes out there, government jets and releases ten into the sky and they you know, they play around for a while and then they come back go back offshore. That's my

guess on what it is. If you had to guess, is the world ending or is it some international or government program.

screwing around with us in some kind of program. I'm not like a you know, deep government, dark government conspiracy theorist I don't believe there are people who are actively trying to manipulate outcomes and all those kinds of things. I am I one hundred percent believe there is alien life, and there is intelligent life that is working at a higher capacity, with more intellectual capacity than humans. And for all we know, they could already be here. It could

be sharks. Right, How arrogant do you have to be to not think that there could be somebody higher on the intellectual food chain than us. We have explored so little of the galaxies to understand what intelligent life is. And like I, Carl Sagan is one of the most brilliant people who ever lived. He believed that there would be some form of intelligent life and that there is some form of intelligent life outside of known humanity. If he believes that, I believe in.

There was the Pentagon video the TikTok based tic Tac basically over the Pacific, which is, you know, it's hard to explain. And those were really genuinely perplexed fighter pilots, you know, and they're up in the sky, so that stuff's you know, that's obviously something could be China. And

I've this stuff in New Jersey. I mean, you can tell when somebody's faking it, and you can tell when it's a husband and a wife having a margarita and they're like, what the f is that and they're just laughing. You know, you can tell when it's real and when it's posers. But I tend to go back to I think it's a government plane one hundred and fifty miles off shore, releasing super drones and just looking for the reaction.

How visible, How does our government track them? I think I think our government does a lot of testing, Our military does testing, The Pentagon does testing, and they just don't tell us.

to be controlling us. We can all peacefully coexist. I love love, Why can't we all just get along?

It's a series of confrontations looking back at yourself and the moments you misstepped. And that is punishment and it's painful. And I hear that, and I think now that seems much more realistic to somebody who's died, been unconscious three different times and come back to life. So one of the things I've always thought about, if there is life beyond us, I think they would enter. I think they would enter and house themselves in the water, because it's

the one part of this planet. First of all, it's the largest part, it's the most unexplored part. There's not as many telescopes facing down is up, and it is basically uninhabited. It's easier to hide and you can travel very well. You know, submarines everywhere. So I always thought if there was another society, that's where you'd hide. And that's so when I see videos, they're often near the water. You don't see you see them so often on coastlines,

and Virginia's in New Jerseys, in California's in Mexico. And it's like, what's the theme. You don't see them in Ottawa, you see them near water. You don't see them in ye I mean you really don't. You don't see them in Kansas very much. So that leads me to believe there is some water connection.