Colin Cowherd Podcast - Raiders/Rams TNF, Baker’s Best, Week 14 ‘Sharp’ or ‘Square’

Baker Mayfield, television star, big time personality, saved the broadcasts, saved a night of dreary football. My takeaway was, I was absolutely rooting for Baker Mayfield to drive at ninety eight yards for a winning touchdown. I'm in the story business. It's a great story, and you know everybody knows my history with Baker Mayfield. I think that's honestly the most impressive win of his career. And I'm dead serious. He won a playoff game. Go back, and look at that

Cleveland roster. The old line was like number two in the league. Nick Chubb, David and Joku Good receivers, Miles Garrett. That was a really really good roster and they beat kind of a old big Ben you know, kind of a wobbly Steeler team. This was impressive. Ben Scronic was his go to receiver tonight, a second year pro who was fourth or fifth on the depth chart, missing multiple offensive lineman. That's impressive. To walk into a city, new playbook,

new coach, new system, new teammates. I mean, nobody really knows. Baker Fist bumped a few guys. I mean, Kirk Curvestreet said, I've been in town. He goes like, I here Tuesday for a speaking engagement. I've been in town longer than Baker Mayfield to walk in and kind of you could tell throughout the course of the game Baker Mayfield was just getting the information from Sean McVeigh and instantly relaying

it to his team. And I imagine as Baker moved to the line of scrimmage, McVeigh was telling him kind of what the play was going to precisely look like Raiders had because of Max Crosmy a decent pass rush. It's not a great defense, but that loss, even by Raiders standards, worst of the year for them. They're now probably on the outside looking in for the playoffs as they end the year with the Niners and the Chiefs, so they really really needed this win. But that was

really impressive by Baker Mayfield. The other thing is you don't really I mean, what makes sports is the stories. I mean, everybody loves their home team and everybody dislikes the rival to the home team. But the reason we watch games beyond our favorite team or the team we grew up with is the drama, the chance for upsets. I mean, the Raiders were hot, the Raiders were healthier. The fact the Raiders could not pick up a first down on third and one. You don't deserve to be

a playoff team. You don't deserve to win that game. But what made tonight special for Baker is a great story. A lot of his faults and problems are his, and let's be honest, he couldn't step to the podium for his weekly press conference in Cleveland without hissing somebody off right, Like he just wasn't quite ready to be the face of a franchise. He had more commercials than touchdown passes. Seemingly he didn't have great judgment. It was my knock coming out of college and in the end, he just

ticked off too many people. Andrew Berry, the coach, teammates handed unraveled. And then he goes to Carolina and you know they want to see Sam Donold play, but your hand to root for Baker Mayfield tonight. Come on. I mean, the reason we watched this stuff is upsets and drama and stories outside of our favorite teams we grew up with. That was a great story. And not only was it a great story because of the multiple holding calls on the Rams tonight, Baker was twenty two of thirty five

two hundred and thirty yards a touchdown, no interception. I'm not exactly sure he had at least two, but I think three other really nice completions that were negated due to holding calls. Baker's oll was throwing a pretty good ball. When he can set his feet clean pocket, that's never been his problem. You know, he gets a little squirrely sometimes when he's moving. You know, he rushes things his judgment. But if he can set and throw, I mean, you know, he was a number one pick for a reason. Set

and throw, let it rip. He can be accurate. But you know there's sometimes is this ever true for you? Sometimes the more I get into golf, start taking lessons or I start playing more, my golf gets worse. I'm overthinking and then I'll take like six months off. I'll go golf for the first time in the summer. It happened this year in Rhode Island. I played the best round of golf I've played like four years. I just

went out and played. I didn't overthink it. Baker was playing tonight on adrenaline, little anxiety, a lot of nerves. Didn't overthink it. McVay said, here's the play. Re let it, step back and let it rip. And as impressive. I'm serious, that's about as impressive a moment that Baker Mayfield's had. I mean, listen, we all know the playoff win in Cleveland for people in Ohio is going to go down as a very memorable day. That's a really good team, has a really good old line, that was a really

good roster. This Ram offense is I mean, Baker Mayfield made the Rams watchable. You know, we saw this a couple of nights ago. I was thinking about this. With Brady struggled and then his last two drives, you know, the defense goes into a little pre event the defense is on the field, you start giving up, you know, seven to ten twelve yards defense on the field. End of a game. Defense gets tired. Suddenly, the defense, you know, the Saints against Brady, the Raiders against Baker, gets a

little more vulnerable, a little more gassed. You're asking you know, you're asking these big guys to be on the field those last two drives after three and a half hours. Brady and Baker Mayfield. When's the last time they were mentioned in the same sentence? But you had a root for Baker tonight. I mean that was fun. It really was a lot like that Buccaneer Saints game with Brady just dreck until the final two drives. It really was. I think from this point forward, anytime you mentioned Baker,

you should also simultaneously mentioned Tom Brady. That's the new rule in broadcasting. Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield, Baker Mayfield, Tom Brady. Where'd you go? Baker? You know we live in the same hometown. Now, could you invite him on the volume? If an excellent guest, I'm not sure he'd except that he's going to be busy actually learning the playbook. Isn't

that amazing? I mean think about speaking of Brady. When Brady moved to Tampa, he literally held secret practices that were taped by a helicopter like ten in ink Lee trying to learn the playbook with a loaded roster and twelve games. In all those practices, Brady was seven and five. The protection was bad. He was screaming at teammates. Baker Mayfield is in town with a bad roster. He doesn't know, he can't spell Ben Scronic his best receiver. He doesn't

know where he to college. He's never seen him play. They've probably never run, you know, they've never run in game routes, obviously, And Baker Mayfield was pretty accurate tonight when he had reasonable time to throw. It's pretty accurate. And Raider fans I've supported all year, you earned that l. You absolutely earned every inch of that L. That was bad. And I've been on the Raiders bandwagon all year. That was awful. That was just awful. Tip of the cap

to Baker Mayfield all right. Time for Sharper Square, Chad Millman, CCO Action Network All odds provided by FanDuel. By the way, before we get into our picks, I think a really fascinating situation I'm gonna throw this at you. So I do mock drafts all day. I got no life, right, and so in this league, often you will get really good players having a down year. They get hurt bad system. Rarely do you get average players having a great year. Geno Smith, I am betting against him next year. Duplicating

this right, So you're Seattle, you're the GM. They have two first two seconds, a third, two fourths, So those are seven high quality picks. Do you would you give up a third for Jordan Love who will be twenty five bigger then Bryce Young, more talented than CJ. Stroud, and more season than all of them. I would give up a third for him. Still have two first, two seconds to fourth. I wouldn't draft a quarterback because I think here's what I think, Chad. If you look at

that roster, they have two needs nose tackle. Their first pick Georgia looks like the next Fletcher Cox, and then you can argue center or another receiver. It's a good center and wide receiver draft. Until about late second. I wouldn't draft a quarterback. I would go get Jordan Love with a third. Been in the league. Good coaching behind a star? Is he any less talented than CJ. Stroud. He's five inches four inches bigger and heavier by twenty five pounds than Bryce Jump. What would you do as GM?

Quarterback is such an important position in the NFL you have that much draft capital. I would be as aggressive as possible. Package Geno Smith, maybe in number one, maybe in number two. Try to get as close to the top of the draft as possible and get a player at quarterback who you believe is going to be your generational talent. I would not do it with Jordan Love.

I think there's enough tape on Jordan Love from practices and preseason games for GMS to understand who he is at this point, and also know that Aaron Rodgers when they're resigning Aaron Rodgers, they couldn't have believed in Jordan's Love because if they did the same way, the Packers were like, we gotta get Aaron Rodgers start playing, we gotta get rid of Brett Farve. If Jordan Love was that good, Aaron Rodgers wouldn't be there anymore because he's a pain in the ass. So I disagree with you.

Remember Seattle does have Denver's first pick, so they're gonna have a top five pick without giving up anything. Then then then, by the way I'd stand pat, there are multiple quarterbacks who could go top five right now that you believe could be of that kind of talent to be perennial Pro Bowlers. You don't need to go trade for a guy who's three years in that A lot of people don't think is the next guy. I wouldn't do it, all right, as they say, uh, you know,

I'm poor. I'm pouring I'm pouring cold water on your hot take. All right, Well, wouldn't be the first guy. So I like, I've been very much an underdog guy all year. I'm going to start with a favorite. I like, okay, everybody now pouring cold water on the Dolphins. No, no, no, no, no. Missing both tackles against the best defense and about six years in the league. The Chargers are poorly coached, inconsistent o line and receiver. Miami's a real team. We overreacted

to that loss. The fact they were competitive late is impressive. They were missing both tackles against the best defensive front in the sport. I think Miami is better coached. Stayed out West bounces back as a favorite. Minus three really like the Dolphins, Sharper Square. Not only do the wise guys disagree with you on this on the Favorite Pod today, this was what we call our big balls better week. You got to have balls if you want to bet the Los Angeles Chargers and a team that's been banged

up with a really big coaching deficit. Because I agree the Dolphins are just much better coach than the Los Angeles Chargers. But the Chargers as dogs are different than the Chargers's favorites. The Chargers's dogs. There's so much variance in how they play, what their play calling is. They're complete wild cards in a game that probably can be a shootout because I do think that the Dolphins are struggling with injuries and the numbers three and a half,

So you're getting the hook right now. This is a total pros Joe's game with the squares on the Dolphins and the wise guys on the Chargers. All right, let's go back to dogs, which I usually like. Deshaun Watson is going to be better in Week two than Week one divisional game. Plus six, they've had their number Bengals off a wildly crucial watched discuss game over the Chiefs pull back a little Browns plus six or five and

a half sharper square, great number, totally sharp. Play divisional game, playing against with the Browns, a team that did horribly against a team that is even worse in the Texans. This game probably should be lined around four. But there's inflation on the Bengals because they are now the public darling and what they did to the Chiefs, which we talked about. Love the Bengals is two and a half point home underdogs. It's exactly what we thought they would do.

But now the market is so overinflated on the Bengals. You have to take the Browns in. This another one where there's a huge discrepancy. You've got a lot of tickets. Tickets are usually indication of the squares at the public coming in. They're all coming in in the Bengals, but the money coming in and the Browns football seasons underway. Now is the perfect time to download fan Duel, America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get a

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seven seven h Ope n Y. Or text Hope n Y. Four six seven three six nine in New York, Tennessee redline one hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine Tennessee visit one eight hundred gamble dot in West Virginia. I think my favorite bet of the week as a dog is the Panthers plus four at the Seahawks. I think this team plays hard. I think they like Sam Darnold. I think Seattle struggled to put away what is currently an awful RAMS team. I think Seattle is a better

story than a team. People buy into sometimes stories and narratives. This game, to me is last second, not shocked if Carolina wins for the record. Brian Burns Rookie offensive tackle watch out. I like Carolina plus the point Sharper square, totally sharp, complete agreement on this. Seattle's really been struggling the past few games. Kenneth Walker, he looked like the odds on favorite. He was the odds on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Last three games. That

running game has been struggling. He's injured, did not practice on Wednesday, his backup is injured, did not practice as well. There are a lot more third and long situations. Was does not play to geno strength. And you're right about the Panthers. When Baker Mayfield isn't the quarterback for this team, they're mediocre to decent team. Defensively, they're really good on explosive plays, defending explosive plays. And jac Horne he's had three hundred and sixty one coverage snaps this year. He's

allowed one hundred and thirty eight yards. She's great, he's great. So if you look at like the other side of it, we just said the Seahawks need to run the ball, but they're gonna have a hard time doing it. So then you've got a lockdown corner who can take away DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. So now you've basically eliminated all the things that the Seahawks can do. I think the wise guys agree that this is a good number

and they expect it to be a close game. Vikings getting a point and a half all odds provided by a fan duel, still a better team, more balanced than Detroit. Detroit off a big win, feeling themselves it is still an absolutely awful back end of the defense, even if they outplay Minnesota. Minnesota's got that veteran quarterback, lots of weapons. This is a classic. I just don't trust Detroit as a favorite. I'll take more stability, at least a defense

that can occasionally situationally make some stops sharper square. I'll take the Vikings and the points you are playing pretty square on that one. I don't agree that you can say the Vikings are a better team than the Lions. In fact, if you look at the numbers, look at the advanced metrics, which is what wise guys like to do. They don't do total yards on offense, total yards on defense.

They like to look at the next level. They look to look at the metrics that tell you the story of the game, regardless of what the final score is. So one of those metrics is called DVOA right. Lions thirteenth overall in DVOA Vikings twentieth, Lions ninth in offense

on DVOA Vikings eighteenth defense, Lions nineteenth vis eighteenth. And by the way, since the Lions came out of the bye and since they fired their defensive backs coach, this is a team that statistically offensively and defensively is pretty much the Cincinnati Bengals, and everyone thinks the Cincinnati Bengals

are now going to the super Bowl. So the reason why you have a team that has a much worse record that is favored at home against the team that is leaving their division by many many games is because the professionals feel like the Lions are probably a better team than the Vikings. And the fact you're getting it at one and a half is a really good number. I recommend you take it. Sometimes I don't understand numbers and I stay away, but I actually think when Mike

White's at quarterback, it's a reasonably capable offense. They're now getting ten. Revenge is overrated in divisional games. I think Buffalo's a good team. Ten against the Jets defense seems awfully optimistic. I would take the points with the Jets. I think they're a real football team. Sharper square. Believe it or not, it's square. So right now, the number of tickets, the Jets are the public underdog in this game. So you mentioned the numbers at ten, it was at nine.

The tickets are coming in on the Jets, but the money the professionals are on the Bills, and so we've had what's called the reverse line move. That's when the preponderance of tickets are on one side, but the money is on the other side, and it moves in the direction of the money, not in the direction of the tickets. And I think one people believe Mike White is a better quarterback than Zach Wilson. But now you're getting tape

on Mike White. You've got six games of tape in the past couple of years, it's easier to figure out who this guy is. I think the wise guys feel like the Bills will be able to scheme against him differently. And I also think they believe the Bills are getting healthy. And look what they did against the Patriots ten days ago was really impressive. To beat a team that people thought was on the ascent in the Patriots and do it convincingly on the road in a short week. That's

not easy to do. You don't do that often in the NFL. So there's a lot of enthusiasm for what the Bills can be right now all right time for I'm not sure what to do with this game. I want to ask you Jags plus three and a half at the Titans coming off a humiliating loss. Vabel off a humiliating loss. My guess is at home they player their arts off. But I didn't bet it. Tell me the side sharper square. The sharp side is the Jaguars.

If there is a huge Trevor Lawns question right now, he injured his toe, is he going to be playing? I think the expectation is that he will be playing. What you do by beating the Titans is by beating the Jags is by throwing the ball. The Titans don't have a downfield threat. Traylan Brooks is not expected to play because of the concussion protocols, and the Jags have a really good rush defense. Meanwhile, and the other side

of the ball, let's say Trevor Lawrence does play. The Titans defense is crushed by injuries, especially in the secondary. They're just like they're playing guys literally off the street right now. So you're buying a little bit low in the Jacks because what happened with the lines. They got completely blown out. And the Titans need to win by a margin. It's not like one or two points. If they need to win by more than a field goal.

That's actually when you fade Rabel. So the wise guys, if they get Trevor Lawrence are going to be in the Jacks. Okay, now, try to talk me into a game. For the record. Last week, the minute the game started, I knew you were right. It was Denver And I looked at them again this week at nine and a half and I'm like, God, I hate it, but is that the game? Last week? I begged you, I beg you to bet the Bronchos, and I begged you to bet the Rams. I'm going to do it again. Not

with the Rams. I'm going to beg you, beg you, beg you to bet the Broncos. I will have more money on the Bronchos this week than any other game. Forget about the teams. Let's just say you put your hand over the franchises. If you blindly bet home underdogs are seven or more. The last twenty years, they cover fifty six percent of the time. And by the way, when I give that number, it's not like, oh, they win six times out of ten. That's a four hundred

plus game sample size. It is a lot of games. Right, Take it one step further. You've got a team with a sixty five plus percent winning percentage, that's Kansas City Chiefs against a team that is losing it, that is winning at twenty five percent or less. They're winning percentage of twenty five percent or less. Since twenty sixteen, those winning teams, the teams that win are covering at a

thirty six percent rate. Okay, that's terrible. Let's take it one step further, and there's a reason for all this. Patrick Mahomes in November and December in his career is thirty two and five against the spread seventeen eighteen and two. The reason why all this happens is because when you get later in the year, you have bigger favorites. The bigger favorites are always the teams that have won for two straight months. They're the Kansas City Chiefs, right, and

so they're inflated. The public is going to come in on them. Bookmakers know that, so you are always getting extra value when you fade that when you bet against those teams, because those teams are so beloved by the public. Monday Night Football Patriots Cardinals. Am I betting, buddy Colin? I know it's hard. I told you, I hate betting bad offenses. Oh, it's terrible. Betting is terrible. Patriots, Cardinals. Who would you take? I'd probably take the Cardinals. Um,

it's interesting. We've talked about this. Like when we do the podcasts, we do one on Tuesday, we do one on Thursday. In those forty eight hours, we get a lot of calls from professional betters who like to talk about the games that we were talking about and sort of give us their take, and we call it sharp calls. And there are a lot of sharp calls this week, like in Arizona. It's a little bit because the Pats

seem to be in some offensive disarray. I think that we're talking and we talked about this a couple weeks ago with the Cardinals prior to the bye. I liked him as dogs against the Chargers and that covered it's because they were finally healthy, Like they got Hollywood Brown, they got DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has been all worlds since he came back. You're just getting a better look at that offense and the Pats if they struggled with anything defensively,

it's been with Russian quarterbacks. So I favor the Cardinals. Chad Millman CCO Action Network good see anybody. Good to see you too, my man. We'll touch you later the volume. Make sure to check out The Draymond Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports. Unique perspective understands behind the rope. Also chops up with guests like Gary Peyton, Zach Levine,

Tracy McGrady. Make sure download The Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcasts, only on the Volume podcast Network.