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If you do it, download the game Time app. The code is Colin twenty bucks off your first purchase. Terms apply last minute tickets, lowest prices guaranteed. Well the extended Nick Wright session. So I was thinking about you the other day that this is an interesting topic. You know, how we both I really like I'm very much a windshield over a rearview mirror.
Guy.
I just don't care about the old days. I just don't care. But I was thinking about I love the NBA and this doesn't bother me, but I don't think it's great for their long term viability or growth. Zion and Jaw, We're going to be domestic stars, both due to immaturity, have fizzled now. Jaws hurt, Zion's hurt. And I do think you've done a little European travel, and my mom was European, and I've done a little bit. I do think their academy create more mature players at
a younger age, higher skilled, more mature. They don't have an AU circuit like us. They don't gas their players up. And I think it's very difficult. If I was seventeen eighteen and being told how great I was, it would affect me. And I watched the league now with Yannis and Jokic and Luca and I mean even just SGAs Canadian, and I look at our domestic players and I'm not questioning their commitment or their excellence. But Steve Kuris said
this repeatedly. AU basketball is not great for the ascension of young people. It's not collaborative. It's just about you and people gravy training you. And I look at the NBA right now. It doesn't bother me because I love bigs that can shoot handle. I love watching Yokic play. I know it's ugly, but I love it. But your thoughts in the crowded as we become more distracted on our phones and TikTok, and as the college football is
growing bigger globally, where is NBA. Are you concerned at all about the NBA and the European growth and the domestic players shrinking?
I don't so. To me, these are almost separate. So right now, first team All NBA would be five international guys. Right it'd be Luca and Shay as the guards and Giannis Yo Kitchen Embiid is your bigs. That would be that, and right now, that would be your first team All NBA. That would be your top five, probably MVP Ballot Tyrese Halliburton would probably be next next up, and right because of what's happened with John, I don't know who somebody's This wasn't my initial idea. These I read a tweet
or heard a podcast. Sometimes I get a little sel conscious sometimes like I don't want to take someone's idea, but I also consume so much stuff, like I don't know where I first heard it, like and so some how he positive the idea is Anthony Davis the best American player and the and I stopped and I was at first, I'm like no, And then I thought about it, and I'm like, defensively, yes, well, like is it and is it between he and Tatum?
Yes?
Yeah? And if that's right, and if that's where we're at, that is a problem. That's not an indict I'm not saying those are Those guys are great players, but nobody thinks either one of them is in the discussion for
best player in the league. And so and if we were to talk about the if we were to make a list of the eight best international players and the eight best American players, the other problem would be this, three of the eight Americans, maybe four of the eight Americans now I think about it, are old guys Steph lebron kd and Jimmy Butler, those are, you know what I mean, Jimmy's the youngest of the group, and so
that is. But it's not like the NBA is not gonna have enough talent because it is such an international game and you're getting more and more guys from overseas. But like the you, there is a I think. And by the way, when we're talking about the best American players, the guy left out who's ascending there and would be
the hope because of his age is Anthony Edwards. Yes, like could Anthony Edwards get there where we're talking about But from a pure strategic or popularity standpoint, I don't think it's great for the league if all of them. I think it's really good for the league. If some
of the best players are international players. I don't think it's great for the league if all of the best players are international players and so and obviously people believe Wimby is gonna be on that track now he's that's to me, less about like the international game and more about the fact the guy's seventy five, you know what I mean, has is skilled and so I don't know the answer as to why I think AAU two often gets used as a boogeyman. You know, my son played
high high level amateur basketball. They had really good experiences with it. The kid who I think is a really nice role player for the Knicks, I've talked to you about this, Quentin Grimes. Yeah, he was my son's teammate one summer. Those practices were good. That was a good team, that were good kids. So I think sometimes AU basketball gets a bad name. But there is something going on where the there is a different stylistic, you know, approach to basketball from many of them. I mean, Shoon is
clearly like an international style of player. Now he's not a star, but he might be an All Star this year. And so I don't know the answer. And it does also feel like Shay almost should count as an American, like he's not you know what I mean, He's from Canada. He's stayed bad luck, Yeah exactly. But yeah, so I don't I don't know what the solution. I don't know if there is a solution. I don't know what the answer to it is. But it's undeniable that it's trending
in that direction. And it happened fast. Yeah, twenty years ago, European player meant soft and it was like, wow.
No question, it was like Tony.
One hundred, and it was and it was basically okay, aside from Akeem Olajuan, who by the way, went to college in America, you know what I mean, the had an American experience. Aside from him, if your best player as an international guy, you got no shot whatsoever. And it switched really fast, really really fast. I mean ten years ago, it was just Dirk and a Teme as far as the like, no doubt all time.
Legends, and Dirk was considered kind of a soft offensive only yep, exactly right, and so it changed fast on us.
And I don't I also there is I'm not sure that somebody should and maybe somebody has and I just haven't read it either written. This is like a Daryl Moury Sloan conference type of paper or maybe a book because the other thing is this the international guys again aside from Shay who's Canadian, but the European stars they're all six to eight or taller. It's big skilled guys. Yeah, you know, Luca is a guard, but he's big. We're not getting a bunch of like six two wizards with
the basketball from Europe. It's all like Yannis is this point forward. Embiid Yo Kitch was such a unique player. So I don't know what it is, but it's clearly it's clearly happening. For good or for bad, It's happened.
Yeah, and let's just acknowledge that eighteen months from now Wemby will be in that discussion. So absolutely, so it's not stopping. So I was thinking about this and I want to continue on with the MBA and I have said this is that people show you who they are very early.
You know.
One of the things when I started the volume, I said, be careful about hi hiring people that could be difficult to fire, meaning they're temperamental, they are grudge holding their petty, they're on Twitter.
For the role trying to burn you down, yes, on the way out the door.
So we've had three or four people that we have discussed hiring and I said, what if you had to let that person go? They didn't drive revenue, they were difficult. I said, be careful about that. So people show you who they are very early and very early. In Jason Tatum's career, I like him a lot. I don't love him. I like him a lot, but very early in his career. He showed you something that Michael never illustrated, Kobe didn't, Lebron didn't, Wade didn't, is that he lacked confidence in
big spots. You almost had to push him into taking shots. Is that in these big fourth quarter moments his second third, fourth year, we were all like, oh love, his body can put it on the floor. Good teammate plays real defense. Can kind of let Jalen Brown take control sometimes, Mark markets smart Mark a detensive place. Yeah, turn into the pseudo alpha yep. And I watch the Celtics and I still don't trust them. Years later, he is at least
sixty seventy percent. It's his game, But there are moments still with Jason Tatum. This is never a Luca issue. It's not a Yannis issue. No.
And it's weird. I mean, this is spot on, by the way, and it's a weird thing to say, because he had fifty in a game seven. We saw him have that amazing game films against last few years ago, So it's in there him as a rookie dunk on
Lebron and seem fully confident peak twenty eighteen Lebron. We've seen all these things and Celtics fans will get very you know, parochial and territorial and defensive, but I think deep down everybody knows that the Celtics, it's not they can't win the title, but they have to win the title like the Four Pistons, meaning it's got to be a collective effort, yep. And that is the hardest title
to win. The reason we always go to the Four Pistons is because every other champion from nineteen eighty to now has had a top twenty all time player. So it's not like an indictment to say Tatum's not that, because it's only been like sixteen guys in forty years
to be the best player on a champion. The only other guy other than the Four Pistons you would say is Kawhi's championships, but he was a guy who was trending towards that, and injuries kind of under you know what I mean, undercut the player he was gonna be. Every other team literally had a legend. And I don't think anyone looks at Jason Tatum and says he's going to be a legend.
That's right.
We say his ceiling is MVP candidate. Yeah, all the other guys. The ceiling was how many MVPs? Okay, and that's the difference.
Okay. So I threw this out last week. It's my favorite comp I think I've ever done in the last ye Wow. Andy Murray tennis player, great Britain. So there's Feeder is better than him, and he's like, okay, and then Feeder's getting old, and then Feeder's passed his prime and Andy Murray has this lit window. Oh crap, here comes the Joker and his window was about a year. Okay, okay, Tatum, Lebron Staff, he just doesn't have that savvy that game. It's like, ah, he's so close and he gets a
little window. Finals against the Warriors, doesn't win, and here comes Jokic and Luca and Giannis. He's the Andy Murray of the NBA that his window was a sliver. He was there at home and the and and it's that close and in the final set.
And he's just like, okay, that right, and that might be it and that might And so that's why I give the Celtics credit, because they have built a team that, if healthy, is so well rounded and has so many top fifty players on it. You know, of today's game. You know what I mean, Like they their their worst starter is still a really good player. Yes, you have Derek White, uh, Drew Holliday, Tatum Brown, and porzingis.
Excellent starting five.
It's it's a great starting five. They are banking on that. Again, that's the old four Pistons. The old four Pistons. You have Rip Hamilton, you have Tayshawn Prince, you have Rashid Wallace, you have Ben Wallace, you have Chauncey Phillips. Yeah, those are five excellent players, but nobody that is all holy shit. Yeah, and that's where and I think Tatum's probably right now better than any of those five guys so on that moment. But that is that's just the truth. Yeah, that's why
the NBA is so unique. Like when I and I want to be make it clear to the audience, when I say nineteen eighty to now, like and I'll just do the like my own personal like off the top of my head rankings, I did that list the fifty best players last fifty years, So kareem to now. And if you go through the champions from eighty to now, you have the Lakers who had Kareem and Magic who are two and four. You had the Sixers who had
Doctor J and Moses who are twelve and thirteen. You have the Celtics who had Larry Bird who's seven or eight. You had the Pistons who had Isaiah who's right around fifteen, and then you have the Bulls who had MJ, the Rockets who had a Keem, and then the Spurs who have Tim Duncan, the Lakers with Kobe and Shaq, the four Pistons, and then you have the heat who have d Wade who's right on the fringes, but Shaq who's firmly in it obviously, then the Lakers again with just Kobe,
and then oh, the other team. You know, it's funny I left this out. The other team they're trying to be like, is the eight Celtics, who again they had Garnett, who is Garnett's better than Tatum, but he was, you know so, But it's the same type of thing, so I shouldn't have left them out. But Garnett's on the fringes of it. And then since then we know who it is. It's Lebron, it's Steph, it's Dirk who's right there. Uh, it's Giannis, it's Jokic, it's Durant, it's Kawhi, and it's
not an indict. And this was why I didn't believe in the Nuggets, because it was the same map. I just underrated Jokic, right. The math was, okay, Yo is really good. He's not a legend and I was wrong. It's like, oh shit, he's pretty legendary. He's pretty great. And so I guess maybe it's self fulfilling in that if the Celtics get there, we'll look at Tatum like that. But I don't think we will. If the Celtics get there, I think it'll be like, wow, that was That was
an awesome team they put together. And so it is why it's hard too. It's also why the Heat haven't gotten over the quite over the Hume, because the Heat
have tried the same thing. They've got an awesome player in Jimmy and awesome starting five, much better coach than Boston as obviously, but it's so hard when you get in the finals for the Heat, when they've done it, you got in the finals, you got your team, all of it, and Lebron is sitting there and even old ass Lebron was like after two weeks, I can kick your ass. Then you get in the finals again and Jokich is like, yeah, I can kick your ass too.
It's just hard when that guy's on the other side. And for the Celtic what's gonna be The tough thing is this? And the NBA doesn't always come down to this, but man, it's hard to overcome in one series, much less three in a row. I would argue the Celtics to win a title are probably gonna have to win three consecutive series, the second round, the conference finals, and the finals. We're the best player on the courts on the other team. Yep, speaking hard man, you know what
I mean? Like because embiid or embiding the playoffs isn't the same, but still Giannis, any of those guys, Jimmy Butler has proven in the playoffs and then whoever you face off in the finals that you might have the better two, three, four, five, but the best player is gonna be on the other team. It's gonna be hard. Can we the I'm not trying to hijack your podcast, but can we talk about Philly for a second? The Eagles?
Oh, you're not hijacking it?
Philadelphia?
Yeah, so much. I love about them, but I have a feeling Nick Seriani is closer to the opening press conference than the Super Bowl.
Okay, so here's the thing there. So Wilds did an interesting thing on the TV show, which was he made the point that if the Patriots fired Bill Belichick and then surveyed this is before rabel got fired and surveyed the landscape, they're like, okay, who's the best coach available, they'd land on Bill Belichick. The idea on it me, he said. It was the same thing is the moment the Raiders cut Derek Carr, they're like, okay, we need
a quarterback? Who should be signed? That someone would come and be like, well here's this guy, and it'd be Derek Carr. That the guy you're getting the best available. So the opposite of that thought exercise is this, it's about to be what half a dozen job opens, jobs open? If Nick Sirianni were fired, would anyone hire him to be their head coach? If the answer to that is no, then you have to ask yourself should he be ours?
And I know that sounds harsh, and I know that sounds too much, but I would I would remind people in Philadelphia Andy Reid fourteen years, five conference championship games of Super Bowl appearance, nine playoff appearances, eight double digit win seasons, one bad year could be and c quarterbacks mostly one bad year gone, replaced by Chip Kelly. Chip Kelly ten and six, ten and six the next year didn't make it to the end of year three after back to back ten win seasons. Doug Peterson wins a
Super Bowl with a backup quarterback. The next year, wins a playoff game with a backup quarterback. The next year makes the playoffs, the next year a bad season gone. So this idea that Sirianni's untouchable Gary Kubiak I looked it up today, was forty six and eighteen with the Broncos, went to the Division round four times, went to a Super Bowl, and they fired him. They were like, you
know what, you're out of it. So if the Eagles lose six of seven down the stretch and the losses are the Niners by a million when that game, I'm gonna go through it because think about it, that Niners game, the Niners had three losses, the Eagles had won, that would have locked up the one seed with six weeks to go, you'd be four games up with five games left. You know what I mean? The Niners would have then had four losses in the tiebreaker would have been to you.
They get blown out. Okay, that sucks. The next week they could have locked up the NFC East against Dallas. They would have swept Dallas. Dallas would have five losses. They get blown out. The next week, Drew Lock has the only relevant moment of his NFL career, ninety two yards to win the game. You then, you know, escape against Tommy DeVito. Then Kyler drives the field on you, hanging thirty five. Yeah, and then Tyrod Taylor is up
twenty four to nothing at halftime on your starters. If then you lose to Baker, oh boy, like it is. It is rough and and there are real real questions about what is this team right now? Aside from a play that is likely going to be banned next year, what do you do well? And I don't know the answer.
Hey, look at I can argue it's become Brandon Staley. At the end with Brandon Staley, he argued, hey, we're losing close games. We're not getting blown out his quote. Then they got blown out and it's like, okay, So Sirianni's like, hey, there these are go either way games and then you fall behind twenty four nothing to the Giants. So not that it was a mutiny, but with Staley and Nick. By the way, you know who the Eagles were going to hire, if not Nick Sirianni, they liked Staley,
so they were looking for a young voice. And so when you start going from narrow narrow losses, there's two or three things that I always think about. You go from narrow, narrow losses okay, to ugly losses, and then you ask yourself, would the Chargers at the end Herbert before the injury had regressed, Jalen Hurts has regressed. There is nothing the Chargers or the Eagles do well. Now there's nothing well.
And so then the other problem is it's like, well, let's not forget the year he just got last year out of Jalen Hurts. And then you ask yourself the really tough question of you watch Indy this year because Shane and you watch what Shane Steichen was able to cobble together with Gardner Minshew. I understand the last play of the last game didn't go well, but they were a yard away from maybe being in the playoffs with that indie roster. And there's your big chess move, was
demoting your decordinator in promoting Patricia. And now your defense is worse than it was, your quarterback has regressed. You're not gonna have more talent in the future, the best offensive line, seven first round draft picks on your defensive line, two stud receivers, so I and now and folks, you know all eight mile myself here a bit. Folks think I don't like Sirianni because he told Chiefs fans to fuck off after they won that game. That is not it.
But that is a noteworthy moment because that is it was the same way let and I pointed out last year in the lead up to the postseason when they're blowing the Giants out in the playoff game and that little skycam gets him and he does that mean mug like shaking his head yes. And then in the Super Bowl when they're going to get a challenge gone their way and he's kind of histrionically showing for like pointing one way, and Jalen Hurts has to stop him, like,
hey man, what are you doing? He felt to me like a bit of a front runner, like a guy that is really good when things are going good. And in his defense, it was like, well, we don't know how he's gonna respond when things are going poorly because they've never gone poorly. Well, now they are and it's going disastrously. So I think it's at least a question if Philly loses.
Well, you know it's here's another topic. First, impressions matter. I've used the American Idol example a million times. I don't know anything about music other than I enjoy it, but I can I can listen. I can watch American Idol and say that's a hack, that's a star, that's an employable lounge singer. And I know nothing about music that. Dan Campbell has sort of a blue collar work ethos and a likability where the average fan who's busting is
asked for a living is going to love him. He's really a guy a fan would like to have a beer with. Dan's opening press conference was embarrassing, like just like Novice, like eat your knee caps. Yeah, is bad, and he was four nineteen and one to start, and then you know, things start working out. He gets I've said this before. The star of that franchise is not Goffer,
Dan Campbell or Ben Johnson. It's the front office. They've had like back to back to back incredible drafts, like great drafts, and so then he gets a bunch of good players and they start winning a wonky division where Aaron Rodgers leaves, the Bears are a tire fire and Kirk Cousins is you know, sort of okay, and they win and they deserve credit for it. But now you're watching Dan Campbell and you're going, he's a little over
a skis, he's a bit of a meathead. Sarahani had the worst press conference I've ever seen, could not speak acknowledged that very turbulent like Dan Campbell, Early Steiken comes in, elevates the offense, he leaves, they stink. And in both instances I ripped both. I said, you know, Dan came off as sort of a very limited meet him and we've seen examples that he's sort of he's the.
Overly emotional, emotional Listen, he's emotional, he's a fan.
Yeah, and it's Siahanni looks completely over his head. Is that first impressions do matter? You ever watch Sean mcvay's first press conference, Obama wasn't that slick. I mean, it was like it was on a prompter. I was like chest face forward looking at the camera. I mean I literally thought, my god, I run through a who is this like nineteen?
It was like thirty two. Yeah, I was just.
Like, holy hell, first impressions matter. Mcvey's first press conference knocks your sock off. And then I think that if you go back to Sirianni and Dan Campbell, there are qualities about both that are endearing. But man, if you can't get the opening presser right, it said said.
This, it's a real thing.
It's a nobody wants to say this, but it does matter. We elect people based on are they telegenic? Are they good at the podium? If you can't get through four and a half to eight minutes on a podium, by the way, you've flown in, you've thought about it, you know there's gonna be tough. Point you're preparing for it.
Well. So that's so that last part I think is the most interesting because I wonder if some of these guys would be better if they weren't, if they didn't know it was that day, if it was off the cuff, like Siriani's thing to me, Campbell was a different story. Campbell was, this guy's a form of player. I think players are gonna I looked at that press conference and said, I totally get why motivationally he's gonna be excellent, why players might relate to him. And that very moment I said,
and I listen, I get it. I'm a nerd. I didn't play, I understand, but in that moment I was like, my guess is he's not gonna be great at the situational football stuff. Now he actually has been shockingly good at He does follow the quote analytics, but it's just really what he's doing is he just wants to go for it every time, and the analytics support going for it. But like so like, I think it's almost by accident that he's following me because it's like super aggressive, go
go go. But you saw the cartoonish end result of that when he went for that two point converted yard line, which is one of the worst decisions exactly. He was an angry fan that was like, this is bullshit. I got screwed. I'm gonna show you. So that's different. Sirianni's thing was he seemed nervous, like I bet Siriani if he had not been told there was a press conference coming. I think he was hurt by the fact he had thought about it all night. But that's a different type
of concern. That means when things get tight, are you gonna get tight? When that means, you know what I mean, when the pressure up, are you going to respond or not? So that was a different level of concern. So the reason I brought the whole Sirianni thing up was I have a different kind of galaxy brain question for you, which is this, if they lose to Tampa and they
fire him, isn't that the perfect spot for Belichick? You have all that talent on defense, the offensive skill position guys are there and they're already there.
And your weakness is drafting. Howie Roseman's an expert at.
It exactly right, and it's like, hey, you've got, however limited Jalen Hurts might be, even if last year was an aberration, the best quarterback he will have had in a half decade. He will look at Jalen Hurts like he is Patrick Mahomes two point zero. When he's been able with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappi and the last you know legs of Cam Newton. The offense is in place, the defense has all this blue chip town up front, and Belichick's been getting the most out of secondary players
and linebackers for twenty years. This Patriots deepens doesn't have stars on it, and they're awesome, Like the stars are hurt Judean and Gonzales. And that is why if I were filling and I lose to Tampa, I wouldn't fire Sirianni. To fire Sirianni, but I'm sure a shit would consider it if I got on good you know, good intel. Bill Belichick, he wants to stay in the Northeast. Yeah, he wants to go with the blue chip. People are like, ah,
maybe Atlanta. Like Bill Belichick doesn't want to coach the Falcons, be in the set like he was staying a cold weather Northeastern city with a blue chip franchise. Chance to frictionals record, chance to get to the super Bowl. That to me is a hand and glove fit that I would strongly consider if I were all parties.
I had a very good gambling year, so I was O nine and one to start from that point four fourteen of sixteen weeks, I was five hundred or better. I was sixteen four percent, sixteen three. That's a really good year. So that's unbelievable. Ye, that's unbelievable. I had a great, great, blazing fire. I had a guy come up to me yesterday in the grocery store. He's like, man, you were cooking this year. Let me buy you blankety blank. And I'm like, I'm good, this is my job. Don't
worry about it. And he was like, he goes calling, I've been following you for a lot of years. He goes, Man, he goes, you had a year about ten years ago like this, which I remember, And I said.
Well, the year ten years ago or whenever it was right before you came to Fox Sports, that was a year you might have been on the record the best handicapper in the country. That was a year with the blazing five. Would change lines a bit, that was that was a historic run. And then I didn't know. You know what's funny, and this is now going to sound like a bitter man. Uh, this is you know, the
modern media. There was a lot of public you know, publicity about your first two weeks, not nearly a long the following sixteen a lot the coward hasn't made a bat in two weeks, just getting roasted well by the meanwhile, just went two and three every fucking week I did. I had my worst year in forever, just and it was just the same thing, two and three, three and two everyone.
Well, by the way, horrible had a losing record in COVID. I had a shit COVID year. My takeaway was folks Sunday morning, they'd be like, oh yeah, these eight starters don't play. It's like that doesn't count.
You got it.
But you know, it's funny when the media and I don't care because I literally am not on my phone, like just not. I once Elon must took it over. I gave him about two months. It's a mess. I'm just not on it. I use it for promotion for my podcast with a volume. I'm not on it. But it is interesting that the blogg A sphere, which claims shows like our clickbait went over the moon on my own nine and one start nothing in sixteen weeks or not hot nothing.
Yeah, but go ahead, sorry, I well, of course, but I mean you want to hear, you want to hear my theory. This year.
Yeah, So what I did every weekend and it didn't Noah's work. Like this weekend, I said, Justin Fields is not as good as Jordan Love, but Justin Field's with that atrocious Green Bay defense will look better than Love against the good defense.
It didn't happen. That's what I thought too, Yep.
But what I really started to do by week three, I said, you're overthinking the room. When you can get the best quarterback in value, just bet him. And I started just betting four to my five picks. I bet a lot of Kyler Murray. It's like I bet some Tyrod Taylor. I'm like Tyrod Taylor against Philadelphia's defense.
He's gonna move the ball.
He's everaged three hundred and sixty yards against better defenses. And I already started coming down to almost like I picked divisions who will be the better quarterbacks in these games. And it's amazing how simple, Like for instance, Texans Colts this weekend, whise guys love the Colts, and I'm like, folks, it's a.
Win, you're in game. C J.
Stroud's better. I would take c J.
Stroud.
I talked myself out of it because jam are like no but in the end, I watched it. I went first play the game, last drive. It was won by C. J.
Stroud. Yeah, all right, last last thing. I don't know what the and I might have said this to you on TV today, I don't remember I so I apologize if I'm in reruns I said it to someone today. I don't know who's going what the division, No, I didn't say this to you. What the division around matchups are going to be. I know what the best ones would be. The ideal outcomes are the Rams beating the Lions, because then you get the Rams playing the Niners, and
that's a real scare for the Niners. That is a real legitimate scare. And I love CJ. Stroud. I love that story. If we assume the Bills and Chiefs are gonna win, which I think they both will, and that is a great right round two Chiefs having to go to Buffalo for the first time. Everyone I am as America's most noteworthy you know, Buffalo antagonist. I'm rooting for the Bills. I want to see Chiefs Bills in Buffalo. Let's get mahomes Allen. So let's assume that's it. As
much as I like C. J. Stroud. I'm rooting for the Browns because Brown's Ravens is another one that is a shitty first game for Baltimore. It's like, wait a minute, we got to play the only quarterback in the conference with a deep playoff experience otherin Mahomes in a first game in a divisional matchup with that defense, and they're hot coming off a win. And then I don't really care who wins Eagles, Bucks, because I think either team's drawing dead. But it's probably better if the Eagles win.
You get Cowboys Eagles, but Niners, Rams, Chiefs, Bills. Brown's Ravens would be an unbelievable Divisional round weekend as far as where you could make a credible case for any of those six teams in those matchups, and you could make a credible case for any of those teams making the super Bowl. Like I think the Rams can make the super Bowl. I'm not picking them to make the super Bowl, but I think that it is. They've won seven of eight and the one losses to Baltimore and Overton.
I mean that's with Sean McVay and Matt Stafford, Like that's a real thing. And Baltimore's defense, I mean, sorry, Cleveland's defense, Baltimore. I don't know. I'm super excited. So that's what I'm hoping happens. I don't know if it's what will happen, that's what I'm hoping.
So it's interesting. I mentioned you at the end of the show today. I said, Nick Wright, two weeks in a row has said you're gonna bet the Rams over the lines, and I'm like, no, contreremont for that's not gonna happen. And today I got my notepad out coach quarterback defense Laporta is out and I'm like, oh, Shitta.
You're gonna take the Rams, certainly plus the points. I mean, certainly with the.
Points out Dan Campbell McVeigh, that's a two and a half to three point advantage.
Yeah, sapor golf.
Two and a half to three points. You have to take the points of the Rams. You have to take the points.
You have to take the points with the Rams. I think that have to do is points with the rams. I think that when the Chiefs were did you see what the Chiefs line opened at two and a half available one and a half and it was available for ninety seconds. You know what I mean? Now four is a different story because you know what I mean, Well, I think the Dolphins might fold in the cold. The Chiefs haven't blown anybody out in forever, you know what I mean, Like I that's that's not an obvious one.
I think the next best bet is Tampa getting points at home. The Eagles teem that's fall.
I don't think it's I think the Kansas City Listen, you're gonna play poker when you're retired. I'm gonna do a podcast a week with a volume and bet football and and so when you bet football professionally, I wouldn't be on the air. I would wait for the lines to come out and pounce on him. I would live in a state rocking gamble and I would just pounce. So you know, like there are the best lines of the week, or OW was Sunday night, Monday, those are
the best lines. OHA's and the sharps jump on him. And I've always said, if I hit sixty three percent from weeks you know, three to the end of the year, I'd hit sixty four to sixty five percent. If I could bet them. If I did blazing five on Monday, I would get it wouldn't be dramatically different. But you would get like six to seven games a year where
you just get a team you like. Because I lost several games, I pushed on like four games that the line just was and I would say, I say on the air Friday, this is not the best of the line. But I still like them. But I will say is that these games are tough bets. I don't love any of them. I tend to think Philadelphia. I mean, I watched Baker last week. They were they were bad.
I mean, that's true, and he's hurt.
I mean, if you go look at this run, they got two wins over Carolina like that division.
No, no, no, that's true. That's true. So my set. So then if you take that out the the next one that I think is.
I think Kansas City hosting a warm weather team that is depleted is a I would go up to four and a half, I think.
I mean, yeah, Kansas City healthy, which they are, Kansas City rested like It's It's one thing for this Chiefs team to not be the team that it was projected to be before the season, which is the super Bowl favorite. It's another thing for them to fully healthy lose a home wild card game, you know what I mean. Like the the reason the line concerns me is even if I'm even if I'm right, that Kancity controls the game. Once you lay four, you're susceptible to being up ten.
And that shitty back door cover at the end, you know what I mean, at the end, that just guts you. I think the Cowboys are gonna score thirty five points on green Bet.
I do too. I just the question is, can Green Bay score thirty That game feels like thirty three, thirty four to twenty six. That's what it feels like.
Right right that the line is exactly right. That's the thing of listening the NFL in general, lines are never wrong. NFL playoffs, well, it's ever like, oh my god, look at this bet. Like no, I mean that never is there. The only one is I think the Rams are better than Detroit. I just flatly believe the Rams are better than.
Well, they certainly have components without Laporta. That's Laporta is the rare tight end. I mean, Travis Kelcey has sixteen touchdowns on fourteen playoff games. It matters. He's better in the playoffs.
He also, Colin is the NFL's all time leader in playoff yards per game, not amongst tight ends, amongst everyone, amongst receivers with at least ten games, he's the all time leader in playoff yards per game. So yeah, I mean and Kelsey. Listen, Kelsey hasn't been right all year. But I also think if you look at his snap count, if you look at things the Chiefs have been despite the fact that they've needed these games, they've blown some games. They have been, to my eye, a team that has
been holding certain thing. They have not broken the glass. They clearly have not yet felt we are in full emergency. Because Kelsey hadn't played ninety percent of the snaps in any games. You've only seen Mahomes run a lot, and you saw it for the first time in the Bengals game, which was to lock up the division and be able to rest in Week eighteen. I still think Kansas City has a gear just like you saw Buffalo here this
last few months. All of a sudden, Josh Allen is running all the time, and you know why, because they have to win, and it's like that is always their most dangerous play. They don't do it because it's dangerous for them. They can get the guy hurt, no matter how big he is, I think can. I'm always leery of teams that I think might have an extra gear. I think Kansas City might have an extra gear, and
I do. The Kansas City stat that jumps out to me or two of them, one is they are this year they have one loss when they either tie if they don't lose the turnover back. And that one loss was the first game of the year, and their turnover, by the way, was a pick six the other way off a bobble pass. Everybody talks about all these issues they have. The sneaky problem for Kansas City is top five most turnovers, bottom five fewest force turnovers. They have
the third worst plus minus in football. Every other team in that bottom ten is some shit team that is drafting early. You can't overcome that. Typically the Chiefs have. So maybe that kills them, you know what I mean. Maybe in the playoffs they keep turning the ball over, that kills them. But if they don't, they don't lose. And do I trust them a little bit more come the playoffs? I do? And so I think kan City's super dangerous, and I think the Rams are super dangerous
and if the Rams. Man, if the Rams beat San Francisco, that then means Dallas doesn't have to leave home the whole playoffs, and so like they are sneaky. I thought one of the most important moments of the weekend was San Francisco or the Rams beating San Francisco, because that made the Rams the sixty instead of the seven. Because I think the Rams could have gone to Dallas and caused some real problems for the same reason they can go to Detroit and cause problems. So yeah, I don't know, means a.
Very sneaky MVP. Is Matt Stafford not gonna win it. He has been on fire for about nine weeks, and I mean arm Angeles, I mean he has been. It's amazing. One of the reasons the NFL is so great. A baseball draft or an NBA draft, you have to be patient. Pukunakua has changed the receiving corps. They got a left tackle who's great, two defensive linemen who have been excellent
as rookies. It's like they got like four players who are impactful in the draft, and Stafford's healthy, and it's like, yeah, they their rosters suddenly really interesting.
The Rams draft this year is the Chiefs draft. Last year, it's like, oh, you got four guys that are helping you right now. Yes, you know what I mean, Like four guys that are right now making a difference. Not like, oh, they're going to be good. It's like, no, they are good right now. When that happens, it changes the math on your team. It significantly changes the math on your team. It took too long here.
Now, no, no, no, an hour twy I was good. Listen, you sit in the snow. I got sixty two degrees. Yeah, exactly, A shrimp s well, a shrimp salad. Oh my goodness, tell your wonderful wife. I say hello, uh, and I will. I hope to see you in Los Angeles again soon. The if I gotta find a way, because I still believe the Chiefs are going to go to the super Bowl, I gotta find a way to go to the super Bowl when the Chiefs are there going for back to back, And if that happens, maybe I can do my show
from Los Angeles and I'll get to see you. But it's always great to talk to you. I'll talk to you, so I write that pencil, not Pennis.
Okay, all right, I'll talk to you later. The volume