The volume. All right, Jason timp and I are just about ready to talk about the Lakers. Before we start with Jason, I want to grab your smartphone. Download the game Time app. Grab it right now, that smartphone ninety seconds Game Time app. Want to go to a basketball game? Download game Time use the code colin ceoli and that's an easy code. Remember twenty bucks off your first purchase.
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You create an account. The code is colin, then coli in and you get twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again an account the redeemed code colin. Download the game Time app today. Last minute tickets, lowest price is guaranteed. All right, welcome in. We're gonna have Chad Millman Sharper Square you know him from the CCO Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings. So I spent Wednesday night, flew in, flew back for the volume party and the
overriding theme. Now this is from just advertisers and friends, media colleagues. A couple of players was that why don't they hold all the Super Bowls in Las Vegas? For years and years this was a big stigma. Remember years ago Tony Romo wanted to do some fantasy football league in the NFL wouldn't allow it. It was always ridiculous. Vegas has legalized gambling, but told the NBA warned them about Tim donaghy. They don't want a stigma around gambling.
It's the it's the gambling sports gambling mecca of the United States. So there's been a lot of gambling controversies. Very few have been in Las Vegas. They're on the alert for scammers. So finally they put hockey in there. And now football it's all crushing and there's no problem
with the Raiders. Players make so much money. Now I worry more about collegiate players and that stuff, and officials and that stuff, and even you know, that's why I always felt the NFL should, you know, make officials full time employees, because it holds them to a higher level of accountability. Not that they don't feel accountable, but you know, it's the difference between being in a company and being
a consultant. There's a different responsibility, a different level, and I think you always have to have your eye out for stuff. We saw the college football player at LSU. College kids, they're trying to make ends, meet their stars in college pre nil, I always felt there was probably a player too on every roster that was taking a more than a ham sandwich in a twenty. But you just don't know, and so you can't speculate in individual players or teams. But I think Vegas and Miami are perfect.
Phoenix nothing against it, but you've got Scottsdale over there, Glendale over there, Downtown Phoenix. They cut it into threes. Miami's got perfect weather. New Orleans is fine. Although New Orleans. To spend a week in New Orleans, you kind of run out of things to do besides drink and eat. And I think Las Vegas, I mean, you can golf, The golf is stunning, you can gamble, you can shop. I mean if you wanted to a couple of days go to Los Angeles, It's a forty minute flight. So
I think Vegas is a perfect spot. I think the stigma would legalized gambling was always silly. I mean, there are those of us that I've been talking about gambling on the air my entire career. There's no stigma. Every guy I know gambles. I gamble everybody I know, and I gamble responsibly. I think ninety nine percent of people do Do people eat responsibly? Do they always drink responsibly?
Do they always drive responsibly? There's always going to be people that are irresponsible, But I think Vegas works, and especially having a covered stadium. You know, Dallas can get really cold in the winter, and Miami does not rain, but it doesn't get terribly cold. So if you know this idea that you have to mix it up around the country, no, you don't. We hold Marty Gron one place. You know, Rock and Eve in one place. A lot of Hollywood Awards are in one place. You have to
move everything. You don't have to. Super Bowl would be two three places. I'd be totally okay with it. And I just think from the people I talked to I talked to about four former players, about three current players, members of the media, advertisers, and everybody said, this is the hotel capital of North America. There's great restaurants everywhere. There's multiple things to do. I remember going to a Super Bowl in Jacksonville where they literally had one hotel.
They had to bring in cruise ships and they ended up with Super Bowl. I never bought into this. Well, you got to share the super Bowl. I don't want it in Kansas City. It's too cold in February. Let's put the best players in the world under a dome in cold weather or in warm weather. Don't let the weather dictate the outcome. The weather bad weather, Ows's always punishes the greater quarterbacks, you know. I mean it's like you, you don't want to reduce the effectiveness of Patrick Mahomes
or Tom Brady in their prime. It's December. Games happen, but if you can avoid it with a neutral field game, you don't schedule potential blizzards. Let's bring in Chad Millman's CEO Action Network, all as provided by DraftKings. I actually think this is an intriguing Super Bowl. So the Niners last time here were a stacked defensive roster limitations offensively, now, they're historically gifted a top five running back ever, CMC, top left tackle five ever, a top ten tight end ever.
De bow is one of the top multi usage players I can ever remember. I mean, they win seventy percent of the games with him, forty seven percent without him. And then you have Brandon Ayuk, who has really surged this year to become an elite top seven to eight wide receiver. In fact, the weakness you would say is, well, the quarterback doesn't throw a great deep ball. Quarterback's not great if the weather's bad. But I think Kansas City's defense really great defenses. We think of them Ray Lewis.
We can name the players you know, Bosa Butck Kiss or Richard Dent. You can name great players from great defenses. Right Kansas City, You're like, well, I like Chris Jones, best corners in the league, incredibly active wide receivers, multiple paths. They had nine more sacks than the Niners, twenty six more pressures. I think this is an all time classic gifted offense and one of the most undervalued defenses I can ever remember. So I like the under forty seven
and a half. I think there's gonna be yards and explosion plays, but not a lot of touchdowns. What do you think.
I think you've hit on all of the things that make this such an interesting game to analyze for betters. Take this game, put it in week five, Make the Niners two point favorites.
No one. No one's betting and being like, yeah, it seems about right. I don't really see an edge.
But because it's the Super Bowl, people feel like they need to figure out what side they want to be on, and they are ignoring the total. I will tell you right now. Professional betters have been coming in on the under in this game for ten days at this point, and it's really interesting. The over up until about forty eight hours ago was getting fifty seven, fifty eight to fifty nine percent of the tickets, meaning that's what the squares the public are doing, and the under was getting
about sixty percent of the money. That's professional betters. In the last forty eight hours, the under is now also getting the majority of the tickets, and the under is getting the majority of the money. So I do think you'll see this number go down a little bit. I bet the under I will probably end up being heavier on the under than I will on the side.
I like Kansas City plus two, the Mahomes factor and Andy Reid with extra time. But I do think think there's something that's fairly obvious is that in five of eight quarters in the playoffs, and I judge that against average defenses Detroit Green Bay at home, Rock Purty was incredibly pedestrian. Mahomes at Buffalo at Baltimore minus twenty seven degrees didn't have a bad quarter. I can't wrap my brain around Brock pretty struggling against significantly less talented defenses
at home. He'll be nervous. Kyle Shanahan may be tight. Given the history this defense is they allowed seventeen points a game in a league that has pivoted in a conference with all the best quarterbacks in the league that's pivoted offense. And if you go look at who the Chiefs faced, it was a it was GoF, it was Trevor Lawrence, it was Jalen Hurts, it was Josh Allen, regular and post. They never allowed over thirty points, did three times, and they mostly faced Sam Howells, Gino, Drew Lock.
Like I think the gap in defense, you just know some of the Niner players. I don't think it's a great defense, do you no?
And I think you're hitting the nail on the head. And why I like the Chiefs at plus two. I actually bet them at plus two and a half. And
this opened ten days ago. This Chiefs defense, you just mentioned some things they did during the regular season, second lowest scoring defense in the NFL, just behind by fractions of a point the Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs against three of the most vaunted, high powered offensives through the entire season to un road the Bills, the Ravens allowed an average of four points per game in the second half. And I think the real incredible. It's incredible, and I
think the real key to this game. And it's also why people like the under Andy Reid this season has played more conservative lead in the second half. He is not because not on purpose, but the offensive game plan has been slower. I believe they both want to go slow. I believe both of these teams believe in their kickers. At least the Chiefs really do. Kyle Shannon is not the kind of guy to go forward and fourth down.
You are less likely to do it when you're facing Patrick Mahomes when you believe in your defense, like I think the Niners do. I think the key to this game really is going to be how the defensive coordinators adjust in the second half and if the Chiefs get out to a lead, how is that going to spook Kyle Shanahan. How is that going to spook Rock Purty. We've seen it all offseason. The best quarterbacks in the game make bad decisions when they fall behind. Against Patrick Mahomes,
he is a complete model wrecker. You cannot account for that in any of the handicapping, And a lot of the conversations this week about handicapping this game have been about how do you account for recency bias with what the Chiefs have been doing? And how do you account
for what the Niners have done all season long? And I think that you have to consider is recency bias something that is a better indication of how the Chiefs have gotten better, how Andy Reid has changed his game plan and to bringing full circle, how Steve Spagnola has made adjustments in the second half of every game this season, but especially in the last six weeks of this season. I think that'll be the key. We've seen it in every playoff game this year. And by the way, we
didn't see Steve Wilkes do that. The Lions lost that game because the Lions made bad plays, not because the Niners all of a sudden. We're playing so much better defensively, and I think you've got a zone heavy scheme on defense against Patrick Mahomes, whose receivers don't have very big average depths of target. You're sending yours thought to get sort of dink and dined until the Chiefs are scoring, and then you're.
Bout Mahomes, and Mahomes has become more comfortable with that. Yeah, this season it's exactly you know. I would say Andy Reid and Steve Spagnola are the best coaching due in the league. I do think Demiko Ryans and Bobby Slow for Houston are the best young coaching combination in the league. But I don't think Steve Wilkes. I think he's been a downgrade from Demiko Ryans. They're not as good as in the red zone. They're pass rush, they don't generate
the pass rush outside of Bosa. So I think what we're looking at is and I think you hit on something. There's two whammys that work in Kansas City's favorite. Mahomes screws with everybody's head. You tend to call a more aggressive game because of Mahomes. Nobody's calling wacky plays because it brought pretty maybe the opposite. Secondly, Kyle's lost games in the Super Bowl he had won. Does Andy Reid get into his head? Does it get into his head? I asked Drew Brees that today. I said, you know,
you go to the Super Bowl. You didn't have this litany. I mean, the Niners have been great for thirty years. Mostly they haven't won since ninety four. This team has been great for six years. Right, that shit gets tight, right, Like, I can say whatever you want. This is going to be a loose Kansas City team with the best head coach and DC duo in the league, playing with confidence, an underdog. I think if it's close laid, I think all the intangibles go to Kansas City.
I've got a cowherd take on this. Patrick Mahomes isn't playing just to win this title. He's playing for legacy. And Patrick Mahomes is such a gifted player. We're talking about people who we're talking about a guy who is at the top of his craft potentially beyond Tom Brady, and the path he will be on if he wins this game is far beyond the accomplishments of just one season. And I think he's a game wrecker, as we said, because he can think beyond that and he will not
shrink in the moment. And I think to your point about Shanahan, to your point about brock Party, and I don't think this is necessarily specific to them, but in this case it will be. Then Mahomes makes you do things you wouldn't normally do. And if you've got the monkey on your back because you haven't been able to close the deal in the Super Bowl and you're going against Patrick Mahomes, Let's remember Patrick Mahomes lost the Super Bowl against the Bucks because he had no healthy offensive
pack line none. Like all of these things, you get clarity looking back in history. So I do think that the context of Mahomes playing for legacy and being driven enough to know that's what he's playing for beyond this season, I think that's an X factor.
So one of the pri don't do a ton of props, but brock Purty over under two hundred and forty seven passing yards, so Brandon Ayuku is sensational, but you're talking about Sneed's an elite corner that when he guards you. The quarterback has sixty five passer rating in a fifty two percent completion rate. You can put Snead McDuffie's also excellent. So I don't think they'll beat the Chiefs over the top. They could dink and dunk, but I'm Kyle Shanahan. There's
a fairly obvious way to map this game out. I want to see mahomes as little as possible, a lot of Debo, a lot of Christian McCaffrey and Deebo in some running sets, which we know we can do, but it felt like he did more of that pre content pre contract than both. I don't have the data to support that. But the way to win this game for them is I'm not putting it on brock pretty shoulders and we're not going to get cheap yards over the top.
This is a Deebo Christian McCaffrey game. Secondly, is that San Francisco and I can't figure it out because nobody's tied to their play sheet, and more than Kyle Shanahan, they've not been a great first quarter team in the playoffs out played him. Detroit out played him. So it's like, you're not going to get major yards early. They're gonna be fairly cautious, I would think with Brock pretty early in the Super Bowl right like, they're not going explosion plays.
You're not going to get cheap crap over the top because the Chiefs pass rush is excellent and their corners are, in my opinion, the best young corners in the game. I'm actually surprised to forty seven's a lot of yards when you have Christian McCaffrey. That's all against the Chiefs defense. Baltimore was reluctant to run. They could have. You know, Gus Edwards first run was fifteen yards, his second carry was in the second half. They could have run, So that number to me seems high.
Well, look, Colin, I had Gus Edwards over forty and a half rushing yards, and when he ran, so did I for fifteen yards on that first play. I'm like, I'm golden, Like I'm watching in the action app and I see like his percentage chance of covering that was like eighty percent, and then it was seventy, and then it was sixty and then it was fifty and all of a sudden, he ran one more time the entire game.
And that, by the way, is indicative of how coaches and players change their game plan and change their style when you're playing Patrick Mahomes, I think the Niners. I'm not trying to avoid your question. I don't have a strong opinion on Perdy. I would probably lean to the under. I think it's lined about right. I don't see a huge edge in Brock Purdy in his passing yardage. I think I do see Deebo Samuel over his receiving yardage as a bonus because I think he's going to line
up in the slot. And I think that's a little bit of an advantage because you're not having to go against really good corners against the Chiefs, and you're going against smaller linebackers, and so if they are going to find some success, that could be where it is.
And I also agree with you.
Look, if the Niners are winning this game, they're doing it on the ground, thrashing a mediocre Chief's Brolin defense. I won't say terrible Chiefs run defense, it's mediocre. It's a mediocre defense. So I think the advantage here is to run McCaffrey and run Deebo Samuel. Do what I say, you're betting over the McCaffrey yardage. I don't think so, because I do think that the Chiefs know they'd almost rather put the ball in brock Perty's hands than let
McCaffrey beat him, because he is so talented. So those are a couple of tricky props I think to bet. I will tell you one bet that I love that I think is underpriced right now.
Christian McCaffrey. First rush over.
Three and a half yards happens sixty to sixty five percent at the time, and then the circumstances, and then the percentage increases with circumstances like we are looking at this week with the defense that isn't quite as good as what the Niners were always facing. So if you're looking for sort of a sneaky fun prop, that'll be over quickly. They're right away if you're gonna in that one. But that's one that I like.
By the way, I'm going to defend the Chiefs run defense a little, not overwhelmingly, but you don't play catch up with the Chiefs like you used to, So people simply run more against Kansas City. In previous years, the Chiefs defense was viewed who they don't allow many rushing yards. Cauz, you're aus trailing. This Chief team has been trailing, so people aren't getting into shootouts. And when you don't get into shootouts with Mahomes, you find comfort in running and
eating the clock because Mahomes is in your head. So people are much more willing to run against Kansas City. I don't think their run defense is bad. They're too athletic a linebacker for it to be bad. They really have good, twitchy linebackers. Yeah, but this defense has the best corners, an excellent pass rush, so people attack the run game more, and I think, again, I don't think
it's a great run defense. It's not Baltimore, but I think it's a little overc gust how poor it is based on if you knew you didn't have to get into a shootout with Mahomes, you'd want to run the damn clock, so we'd get two less possessions. So people go into a week and say we're going to commit to the run. Well, if you commit to the run, you run the ball more, and you run the ball
with more success. So I think people have gone into games with Kansas City thinking, hey, we got to be good situationally in the red zone because when we get chances, we got to score touchdown not field goals. That was forever, that's been the mantra with Kansas City. You got to get touchdowns, not field goals. Teams go for it and fourth down you don't really have to with this team. I bring the ball. So I think the defense for
Kansas City is excellent against the pass. I think it's okay against the run.
Good enough, good right, And I think that to bring a full circle, that plays into why we like the under and the game script that we're expecting is going to be that both teams play some kind of ball control offense, which is really what they've been doing all year.
Right.
These have not been explosive from a Niners perspective, not I mean a Chiefs perspective, not an explosive offense, and the Niners, while they can be explosive, are more than likely recognizing that their ability to win this game is going to be dependent on their ability to run the ball. So as long as they can be committed to that, I like our chances on the under. Do I think do I think either side is a lock?
Not really.
I will say one thing you want to consider when teams win the Super Bowl, they tend to win by a field goal or more so, if you really like the Chiefs. Another fun alternative bet to make Chiefs minus two and a half at plus one thirty one thirty five because you're getting better odds, and if you think it's going to be a close game and the Chiefs are going to win, might have will take the Chiefs that minus two and a half, which is the limit
of where you want to be. I'm sort of taking an at line here and getting a little bit of extra juice.
Chad Milman been great. My three teamer is Chiefs plus two under and Brock under two hundred and forty seven passing yards. Give me a three teamer very quickly.
I will take Chiefs plus two. I will take the under, and I will take Deebo Samuel over fifty eight and a half receiving yards.
I think you're right on that. You know, the air thing with him, bubble screens, he gets cheap yards. He gets those, he turns four into nine like three times a game. You get a lot of cheap stuff.
Ri Trent Williams out in front of him, best a lineman in football.
Come on, nothing cheap about that living room boy.
That is dude, I am in a listen. You'll appreciate this.
And we didn't, you know, we saw each other last night at the Amazing Volume party that thing dude three years ago, four years ago in La I was like, you know, one hundred and fifty people in a backyard by the pool last night. I don't even know how many people were at this place last night, but it was massive and full of star power. And I was like telling somebody that you know and you can appreciate this.
I first started coming out to Vegas to write my book The Odds, about these guys who've been on sports for a living.
Yeah, interplay between bookmakers and betters.
Yeah, twenty five years ago, right, and you know, some of the guys that I was profiling, like Boston Red and the guys at the Stardust were the book makers that I profiled. One of the guys that I profiled is now the CEO at the Mirage Hotel.
So I came in. It's Joe loopo Oh, I know the name.
Yeah, yeah, And so Joe Lupo is now the CEO at the Mirage Hotel, and so I came into town, and like he sets me up in a room that is so freaking big. I've got a bathroom on one side of the room and an equally large bathroom on the other side of the room. And I've got a grand marble foyer. I've got a sweep that is so high roller. When I go to check in, the question is what kind of line of credit would you like? It's not like, do you need a line of credit,
It's automatically assumed I need a line of credit. When I walked in, I was sitting there checking in. A guy walked in behind me. He's on his phone saying to a guy I don't know who he's talking to her. He's like, listen, I'm gonna need another one hundred grand on the line of credit. I'm already down one hundred grand. I haven't even checked in. It'll be fine, don't worry
about it. I started with two fifty. Let's put another one hundred grand in there breaks out a way of cash, Like it's a different game here, just a different game.
But no, it's like, but you.
Were here, you started your career here, like the fact that the Super Bowl is here, that there's professional hockey here, that they're talking about baseball here, even though sports betting is not as big a thing here if you look at the numbers, that is like kind of irrelevant as a sports betting market.
It's annoying, but it's a major league sportstown.
Now.
Yeah, I'll give you a ninety second sports story. I arrive in Las Vegas. I drive in. I drive in, and I'm gonna meet my boss out of college at the circus Circus. I get there about an hour early, drive in, driving as fast as I can at my AMC pacer. I arrive and my mom's checking on me, like every six hours. How am I doing. I get to the circus circus. I put a quarter in a slot. I went seventy five dollars first pull. I went to a phone. I called my mom. I said, Mom, love
this town. Don't send money and at I never ever in seven years pulled another handle at one. Yeah, my first pull, seventy five bucks, never one again ever.
No, it's so funny. I checked when I was checking in yesterday.
I was in this room, like this super VIP room where you go to check in, and they needed like fifteen minutes to finish cleaning up my massive suite, and so I had a little bit of work to do. I pulled on my computer and I was responding to a slack from the CFO of our company, and I'm like, all right, let me just do this and I'll finish this in ten minutes. And he goes, what are you doing. I'm like, well, my room's not ready yet. He goes, your room's not ready and you're responding to me instead
of going to gamble right now. I'm like, guy, I got to pace myself. I'm not losing all my money in the first fifteen minutes I'm here. I want to leave up. I'm going to be very disciplined about this. You don't get rich taking money out of your pockets. Colin, That's what I say.
Chad Melman, CCO Action Network. I got to go pick up my wife at the airport, my beautiful wife.
You're talking about it. So yeah, the volume.
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