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doesn't take long. Create an account, use my code the redeem code columns CELN for twenty dollars off your first purchase. COLN terms apply. Download game Time today. What time is it? Game Time? Immediate reaction, Holy shit, what a night of sports? May have been the best Thursday night football game I've ever seen. Thirty six thirty Kirk Cousins. Oh my god, five hundred plus yards for Kirk Cousins. Was it four touchdown passes? Baker had what three touchdown passes? It's just
a flurry. I lost count. Jeez, what a night. I mean this, I'm doing this on the fly here, I'm just looking thirty six thirty, Yeah, Baker nineteen and twenty four, three touchdowns. Listen to these numbers for Kirk Cousins forty two of fifty eight, four touchdowns, five hundred and nine yards, Colin. I can't believe that Lena paid Kirk Cousins and drafted Michael Pennix.
It should be fired.
Yeah, having two quarterbacks, it's terrible thing in the NFL, Just terrible. So first of all that that game was crazy. October has arrived and SOA's offense. I mean, this just shows you how close this league is. So Atlanta. I mean, you know, they get Darnell Mooney drops that ball six minutes left, and you're thinking they just blew it wide open Darnell Mooney. But Rahe Morris, like good coaches, kept his timeouts. They were able to stop tamp on that drive.
Time out, time out, time out, get it back, ball punted in the end zone, get it back. And this is what Captain Kirk does. He's a professional quarterback in this and this shows you. We talked about this on FS one today. The middle class quarterbacks. You know, your uppercross is five or six guys, and then you get into look at all these middle class quarterbacks. Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold, Gino Smith, Baker Mayfield. Kirk Cousins is on the higher end of that, but you don't pay him
a fortune. They make good money. Kirk makes good money. But look at all the quarterbacks that don't make the biggest money. Kirk Cousins a lot of weapons, Baker Godwin, Mike Evans, Gino Darnold. You notice that if you're gonna have a B to a B plus quarterback and you don't pay him Dak money, look at the weapons. Dak's a B plus quarterback a minus, you pay him big money.
They got one receiver, okay, and they can't. They probably gonna afford Devonte Adams, but they have the worst running back room in the league and the worst run defense. So if you're gonna pay a quarterback the Mahomes money, Josh Allen Lamar. I'm for it, but that's why Kansas City never has a fully formed wide receiver group. But that game tonight's just a I mean, I got notes here. I've been watching it for hours and I'm sitting here
and forget my notes. It was just a great wild NFC South football game and you were watching two really good quarterbacks. You know, it's funny about Baker Mayfield. We
talked about this today on the show. If you give Baker a pocket and Atlanta doesn't have much of a pass rush, I think al Michaels said to Night or Kirk Krbstreet said tonight that they just all season long, they have generated like no pass rush in the first half, and I forget what the stat was, But you give Baker time to throw and let him step into it. Dude's got a big arm. Same with Gino Smith, big arm. Kirk Cousins doesn't have that arm, but his ability to
melt the clock. He is a classic professional quarterback. He is a just a pro. That final drive is just so smart, you know what I mean? And give Atlanta backs and receivers Kyle Pitts credit out of bounds, Get out of bounds that's a team, you know. Raheem Morris got that job in Tampa, wasn't quite ready for it. Goes eventually to Sean McVay. They become tight friends. Watches McVeigh.
He becomes a very offensive, friendly defensive coach like Demiko Ryans with Kyle Shanahan a very offensive, friendly defensive coach Demiko Brans. Raheem Morris watched those teams situationally with their offense. You know, I thought just the way Atlanta preserved their timeouts tonight in the game, they could have easily lost. You don't waste timeouts. They had them late. You know, it was funny when they gave the ball to Kirk Cousins.
I forget, was like a minute twenty six left, and I'm thinking, you know, he's not Brady, but I'm thinking this is Kirk. They'll be fine. They'll get into field goal range, you know. I mean, you got and something has happened in the NFL. I can't explain it. It's happened overnight. Fifty yard field goals are suddenly no big deal, no idea. I have no idea what's happened, But I mean, this thing tonight, it's just like fifty three yard field goals are made with ease. So God, the NFL's crazy.
It's just nuts. Tonight's game was nuts. And the other thing where you have to give the Falcons major credit, and this is Kirk Cousins, because Atlanta's got a pretty young team. I mean there's a lot of younger players, backs, wide receivers. Drake London's a younger player. Kirk's captain, Kirks the veteran. Did you notice? And this is coaching and
it's Kirk Cousins. How little time the Falcons had and how quickly they got to the line of scrimmage to get the ball down it one second left, Okay, that's execution. Atlanta had so many opportunities to lose this game. They preserved their timeouts. The two minute drill was magical. They rushed to the line to stop the clock. That is a well coached team. How about that Kirk Cousins Raheem Morris meeting in the end. I mean they just looked at each other like I need you. This is why
we got you. I love it. All these all these quarterbacks Dalton Gino Baker, Cousins, Sam Darnold, they don't get all the high in love classic Thursday night football game, and I also Blazing five tomorrow. It's a crafty week. You're gonna hear from Chad Millman in about five minutes. I also have to talk about this baseball series. So, you know, the New York Mets. I don't think they have the talent of the Padres overall, or the Dodgers,
or probably the Yankees. But the fact that Pete Alonso, you know, he's a classic slugger, he goes into extended slumps. Home run Derby guy hits the biggest home run of his career tonight in the ninth for the Mets as they go on to beat the Brewers. But this is what's crazy about it. So the New York Mets has been a franchise since nineteen sixty two. I went and looked it up and that was like the Casey Stengle
Polo Grounds nineteen sixty two. The Philadelphia Phillies were formed in the late eighteen hundreds, So the first baseball team ever, the Cincinnati Red Stockings, was like eighteen sixty nine. Phillies were in the National League like fifteen years later. I mean, I think they were playing in a street corner. I mean, who knows. I don't know it was it Connie Max Stadium or something like that. I don't know. Some baseball historian will know it. So just think about that. The
Phillies have been around since the eighteen hundreds. The Mets have been around since nineteen sixty two. I'm reading it on a piece of paper right now. The Phillies have been to eight World Series. These two teams, Mets Phillies' rivals have never met in the playoffs. What they have never met in the playoffs before tonight? Have you ever wanted to win a beer at a bar with trivia? They've never met in the playoffs. I think the Phillies is a better team. But you know, the Mets have
been red hot since mid June. A lot have come from behind victories, and there is a magic to it, you know, these teams. I mean, there's a reason you've heard comeback kids, cardiac kids. You see it in football and baseball at the time. They're just these teams that get on rolls. They're very comfortable playing from behind. They often have power in the lineup. So I mean, listen, outside of the NFL, almost all sports are somewhat dependent
on who gets into the finals. You know, you're Wimbledon's going to be rated higher if it has its biggest stars in it. You know, the US Open in golf, obviously, Tiger in some of the big hitters, now Brooks Kepka can drive a number. Nobody questions that. Or it's the Masters or the US Open at Pebble Beach or Pinehurst. Obviously there are you know, Ohio State meet to Texas in a national championship. That's going to get a twenty Buckeys and Longhorns have two of the biggest, most rabid
fan bases. You know, Michigan last year planned for Natty got a huge rating. It matters situationally, anfl kind of bulletproof beyond brand. So, I mean, Green Bay is one of your more popular franchises. So is Pittsburgh, and they're considered smaller markets. But in baseball, Mets Phillies, that's who Major League Baseball Center over to London to play. That was an o marquee, big power hitters, marquee big major markets.
And Padres Dodgers, which is a really used to be Dodger San Francisco, but the Podres Dodgers over the last four or five years become a great, great series. You know, Dodgers big brother, Padres little brother. But the Podres now they pay like I mean, they have a salary cap that feels more Boston than it does historically San Diego. So that's going to be a great series. The National League, I mean, Major League Baseball could not have picked four
better teams to get in. Northeast rivals, West Coast rivals. You know, population centers so good for baseball. I mean I came home tonight, I thought, yeah, I'll watch an NFC South game, a little baseball game and Pete Alonzo's homer. I have never heard of stadium get quieter faster than in Milwaukee. Great fans, by the way, great fans.
Team.
I mean, they got a lot of young players. Okay, I gotta go to bed. I gotta go to bed. If I had Champagne, I'd pop an open just to celebrate the night of sports. We'll see it tomorrow. Let's talk about something really really important. If you're ever injured, check out Morgan and Morgan's, America's largest injury law firm, and they're there for you. Over one hundred offices nationwide. Think about that, more than a thousand lawyers with over
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law from your cell phone. Pretty easy. That's for the people dot com slash Colin or pound law pound five to nine from your cell Morgan and Morgan has a proven track record of fighting for you to get a full and fair compensation if there's an unexpected accident in your life. This is a paid advertisement. Time for another edition of Sharper Square. Chad Milman, CEO of the Action Network.
All odds provided by DraftKings. It was last year I got off to a dubious start O nine to one, weeks three four OK, caught fire in week five, had a five and oh several four and ones similarly this year, I'm done messing around.
Okay, you know what I do think and I feel said this before. I think is betters whether we are novices or professionals. It's taking two to three weeks to figure out who these teams are, whereas if we had more preseason games, we might have more of an assessment and so we can make better decisions faster. I also have a really cool stat for you that I think is making it a little bit harder to make accurate prediction protectively.
Let me hear, Let me hear that, Let me hear that.
So this year, this year, the average spread in games.
Crazy, there's no big spreads.
Four point two points per game is the spread I think this weekend, let me see if I can find this like there have been I think there's two games where the spread is seven or more. This is one of the most parody examples that we've had in the spread yep, in history, like going back to the nineteen sixties, So there are huge challenges. What it means is every half point matters that much more. Right. Think about the Cowboys game this past week against the Giants on two Thursdays ago.
Yeah, yeah, the spread.
Opened at five and a half. Then it went down to five. Then it went down to four and a half, then it went down to four, then it went up to four and a half. They went up to five, five and a half, someplaces six. The game landed on five. And while that happens all the time, it's happening more often. It means those half points means so much more as a percentage of value.
Well, and also when I do my blazing five, I often get the worst of the number. It's not an excuse, it's a reality. I'm betting Thursday and Friday. It is what it is.
Yeah, so.
You know, I'll give you a game, a prime example that I think part of me thing you take the game. But this is my dilemma. So Cleveland getting three and a half against Washington, they get Nick Chubb back. But I wonder if two things, Deshaun Watson is washed. Secondly, though they haven't faced great competition, Washington's domination of Arizona makes me think, do we have the next Lamar Jackson in Washington. There's a certain harmony with Cliff Kingsbury and
Jade Daniels. It's not like they're completing seventy percent of the throws, it's like eighty two. So my gut, my history says, Cleveland plus three and a half against a rookie quarterback feels like a really smart side. Sharper square.
It's there's gonna be games, Colin, and we've talked about this. We'll do the sharp Calls segment on the favorites where the wise guys, professional betters will weigh in with their feedback on the games that we talk about. We talk about them on Tuesday. On Thursday, we go over sharp calls. Four or five games this week. Washington is one of them. Massive split. The right side is to play Cleveland at three and a half, You're one hundred percent right. It's
not because of the rookie quarterback. Jaden Daniels has already proven he's preternaturally gifted. Like what he has done in the first four weeks of the season is indicative of what you will do over the course of a season. Right, and his accuracy stats, as you mentioned, they are not just good for a rookie, they are good historically in the history of quarterbacking. This is a bi low cell
high situation. Right, you want to get off the commanders right now, because they had that big win against the Bengals. Then they went and blew out Arizona in a game a lot of professional bettles. We're betting in Arizona. Meanwhile, Cleveland, they're fading. The line flipped last week when Max Crofty was out and DeVante Adams was out for the Raiders and the brown went from being underdogs to being favorites
and then they still lost. Here's the challenge, and it's why the game is so split, and it's why a lot of wise guys are taking the half point, but a lot of people they're just passing. This offensive line for Cleveland is in shambles, and now Ethan Pozick, who was the center who went out last week, there are questions about his ability to play this week. And they are already lacking other offensive linemen that has been killing their running game, which has always been good. Forget about
Nick Chubb, Is David and Joku gonna play. If Djoku plays, that makes Deshaun Watson a little bit better. But generally this team is struggling at every single position on the field defensively as well, like they have not been playing well defensively. Miles Garrett has already said he's got injuries to his feet that are going to require surgery. To listen, I want to bet the Browns so bad in this game. I do, I really do, Like I can't pull the trigger yet. I might, I might, the wise guys still
might come in. It's not one of my favorite plays.
So I believe two things are true simultaneously. That quarterbacking matters more now than ten years ago, and coaching does. I think there's a gap in coaching in this league, and you're seeing it on a regular basis. I think Minnesota has the best coaching staff in the league, Brian Flores arguably the best defensive coordinator, where top quarterback C. J. Stroud Brock pretty acknowledge. I don't know what I saw.
Minnesota doesn't even have to give off a field goal. Oh, by the way, massive pressure on a team I think is one of the most poorly coached between Nat Hackett and Robert Sala. If it's three, I stay away. If I only have to swallow two and a half Darnold and Aaron Rodgers, it's a lot closer right now than you think. I would swallow the two and a half in London and take minutes soda sharper square.
So historically you're on the right side. I think their record for favorites in London just straight up thirty four to ten and one, Yes, thirty and fifteen against the spread. So that is the right side. The wise guys have a they can't quit Annie Rodgers. They can't quit the Jets right now, so they have been coming in on the Jets. But I agree with you. The right side
is the Vikings. It's not a sharp side by any measure, but it is the side where you probably are going to have a better opportunity because of what's happened historically.
Okay, something that I believed for a long time, a little zigzag theory. When a really good team is humiliated in a standalone game, take them the following week. Yes, Buffalo minus one at Houston without Joe Mixon, C J. Strout all you. All quarterbacks need run games, young quarterbacks especially, it's not quite the same without Joe Mixon. A healthy Joe Mixon, Buffalo is an excellent team, much more depth, more layered offensively than years before. The linebackers are healthier,
completely utterly humiliated. I would swallow the point and take Buffalo Sharper square.
Square, totally square. This is a massive public game where the fans are coming in and they love the Bills and normally and there are stats to back this up, which I'm sure we will get to. You get blown out. You want to be the team that is being bet on in the next game. Here's what's challenging for this game. Number One, the line has flipped. It's gone from Buffalo being the underdog Buffalo being the favorite. That is a
side where you want to be on the underdog. That is a historical trend where when the line flips, you bet the underdog number one, number two on the field. The challenge with the Bills is that the middle of their defense, from their linebackers to their safeties is just trash. Right. Matt Milano has been out since before the season started. His backup out tomorrow. Hamlin is not a top notch safety in the way they have had top notch safeties in the past. Nico Collins is a game wrecker right now.
So CJ. Shroud improves his third down efficiency just a little bit and will probably have that opportunity to take advantage of the middle of the field against that Bill's defense. Then all of a sudden, you're playing yourself out of a game. So the wise guys are on the Texans and they're hoping to keep getting plus one and a half so they can get a little bit of a cushion.
But again, what's interesting that half point means everything in these games where the spreads are between one and four, right, So that's a massive, massive edge.
So Green Bay and I said, I didn't bet the Packers Vikings because my guest was there were two possible outcomes and I actually saw both in the Vikings Packers game. Yeah, Brian Flores first half against Jordan Love, Jordan looked like he hadn't played a lot. Second half gets his feet under him. Green Bay pivots at half, and then you see the real Packers team that can play with anybody. So I think the second half Packers is the team I'm getting. There's still a major problem with the Rams.
With no Pokah and Cooper Cup, they can't get touchdowns in the red zone. They have no playmaker, Tyler Higbee out Pooka out, Cooper Cup out, Blake Korum not playing much, missing their best offensive lineman on the interior. So the Rams even when they outplay you, they're just settling for field goals. I think the second half Green Bay team minus three, I don't think it's a strong play, but I take the Packers. There is no home field advantage.
It'll be sixty five thirty five. Packer fan Sharper Square.
Ailed the biggest Pros Joe's game on the board with the Pros playing the Los Angeles Rams. So on Tuesday, me and my co host Simon Hunter, you're always trying to put us against each other. We like to bring we like to bring love to the Volume podcast network. But you're trying to, you know, create animosity.
I like conflict.
Yeah, you like conflict. Listen, That's why you're a content genius. You know, conflict creates really great ratings. I came in and I'm like, Simon, the Packers are the side here. We saw the second half they were in that game against the Vikings. Brian Flores has been making CJ. Stroud and Brock Purty see Ghosts and Jordan love. When it was coming down to it was right there, like that
was a scary, scary game. If you were a Vikings Packer, you got to take the Packers here against a team in the Rams that can't put anyone in the field. It has comment to me it was don't get cocky, and sure enough, as the week went on, this was the game that all the wise guys were coming in on. You saw the line move from three and a half down to three. Even with all the tickets coming in on the Packers, it stayed exactly where it is. It's
pretty astonishing how much the wise guys like the Rams. Here, I'm going to be on the Rams. I'm hoping that I can wait until Sunday and get three and a half again when everybody is coming in and the public comes in on the Packers. One stat I can give you, and similar to why wise guys are thinking about the Browns, is when you're playing a team covering the spread by
more than five points per game. So then, in this case the Packers, they only cover about forty five percent of the time when facing a team with a win percentage of less than sixty. So I know it's a lot of numbers, but basically, when bad teams play good teams, bad teams cover.
Giant Seahawks. Rarely have I ever been more impressed with a losing team on Monday Night Football. So Seattle in Detroit standalone game, missing their top four defensive linemen, you knew they couldn't stop Detroit. Seattle has two things going for it. Their skill players Walker dk Metcalf tight ends Gino's playing. I mean, he's completing seventy seven percent of his throws, and I think Mike McDonald's excellent. They're getting
a couple of their defensive linemen back New York. If Malik Neighbors doesn't play in this environment, I don't know how the Giants moved the ball. McDonald is really clever, and he's been really good against averaged to below average quarterbacks. I came out of that Seahawks game and I'm like, I would not want to play them. I think if those two teams met again and Seattle was reasonably healthy, I wonder if I'd take Seattle. I'm gonna swallow the six. I know I'm a dullered, but sharper square.
Yeah, you're a duller because you're on the right side at a bad number. And what is the theme of today's show, Get the best of the number? Right? This game opened at five, I think maybe five and a half. That lasted for maybe seventeen and a half seconds before the wise guys took the five and a half took the six. By the time most of America got up on Monday morning, it was at six and a half, where it's been sitting except for today, where it's starting
to creep up to seven. You are seeing some sevens out there. Don't do it. There's a lot of games like you're just setting yourself up for disaster because there's so much variance in these games, and teams that have been seven point favorites or more this year are crushing it. So you're hoping there's some aggression, but this is like they're eight and five straight up this year, So you're really playing with fire to bet the worst of the number on a big underdog.
Divisional rival game, a desperate team Cincinnati plus two and a half facing a Baltimore team that played perfect football. Division rival underdog great quarterback Joe Burrow Ravens played a perfect football game. The numbers tell me, history tells me. You take the dog in Cincinnati in a desperate spot. Sharper square book it.
Finally you got one. It's totally sharp. This game was that two and a half. The public bettered up to three. It's been back back down to two and a half. I wish you could say that, you know, if you're going to put this in blazing five, you're saying you're going to get it at plus three. I'm not sure you'll get there. But look, it's not a by low sell high situation, but it is a sell high on
the Ravens. And take advantage of the public sentiment that people don't think the Bengals are very good because they just won their first game and it was against the Panthers, and even that the Panthers had a chance to be in the game. The Bengals defense is just not very good right now. But Joe Burrow is playing MVP quality football. You look at what he's doing throwing touchdowns, he's not turning the ball over like he's having a great year.
This team is getting better. Like you said, they're desperate. They're at home these games in the division for the AFC North against teams that are of hype equal quality, they are always really close. Home Division dogs fifty four percent against the spread since twenty twenty. In the last decade, Home Division dogs in September October sixty percent against the spread. The reason why that matters is because that's when every
team is competitive. Right. So sometimes you get to the end of the year, you've got these division games, teams might be out of it. There might be playoff contention where they're no longer which is no longer a possibility. So it's a very good representation when teams in the division play about the intensity of those games.
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Okay, I like Pittsburgh minus two and a half of the Cowboys TJ Watt against the rookie left tackle. It's a standalone game justin fields under Arthur Smith is not as turnover prone. And I mean this is a classic example to me of what the Steelers can do offensively is run the ball, and the Cowboys defensive run defense is thirty second in the league. I don't have to love the Pittsburgh Steelers offensively, but there are things they're
excellent at doing. I'm not sure what Dallas does well at this point, I would swallow the two and a half in Pittsburgh Sharper square.
Totally sharp wise, guys love this game. It's sort of a reverse raw ra on Mike Tomlin spot. Normally you don't like back in Mike Tomlin as a favorite, right, and we saw that last week. I was all over the cults last week when this Steelers were on the road playing in Indie. But he's coming off a loss. So even though he's a favorite, it's a good rob Ross spot for the coach who has been enormal successful motivating his team. But they all, let's look at the field.
Dallas was already thin and bad defensively. Now they are thinner and worse. No Micah Parsons, no DeMarcus Lawrence on offense. Brandon Cooks is out in the backfield. They really have no running game to speak up. From a matchup point of view, it lines up perfectly for the Steelers in every way they have an edge. You want to be able to run the ball, you want to get the ball out of Justin Field's hands, or you want to
peep the ball in his hands for RPOs. Arthur Smith, Steelers offensive coordinator, has been amazing this year a game planning to put Justin Fields in a position to succeed. The only time that hasn't worked is when they were losing and all of a sudden he had to start making plays throwing the ball down field, and that's when he's fumbling. He's making bad decisions. They will likely have
a lead in this game. They will likely be able to nurse a lead in this game, and then it's going to be up to Dak Prescott to throw the Cowboys back into the game, and he's going to be going against TJ. Watt, and that's when the Steelers really cycle up the opportunity to win. So yeah, we're all over the Steelers in this game.
Saints plus five and a half at Kansas City with no Rashi Rice, So it's not a great offensive line but Checko still not back, not as formatable a run game. You lost your number one receiver. Xavier Worthy could become a volume receiver, He's certainly not that now. I think the Saints can hang around. Chiefs will win, But five and a half seems really really rich.
Sharper Square totally sharp. The Saints of the right side here, and don't be sort of dissuaded by the outings they've had the past couple of weeks. They were incredibly unlucky. We've talked about the luck rankings on this show, which is basically a formula our math geniuses have devised to separate the signal from the noise and identify regression either positively or negatively. Right. So last week, the last two weeks,
the Saints have been incredibly unlucky. The Chiefs have still been lucky, right, and they will acknowledge that they are playing at a higher level than their talent because Patrick Mahomes is so much better than everybody else. This is the biggest difference in luck we have in our luck rankings this week, twenty eight spots separating them. That number if a difference in the luck rankings of twenty eight
or more sixty five percent against the spread. If the team that's unlucky is on the road seventy eight percent against the spread, I'll throw even more at you, Colin. Think about Patrick Mahomes as a favorite of more than a field goal under five hundred against the spread. You
want to talk about Derek Carr. Derek Carr gets a lot of hate from everybody, deservedly so, but as an underdog the past twenty years, if he is playing a team that scores less than twenty one points in a game, he has a top five against the spread record with guys like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees. How many points a game are the Kansas City Chiefs averaging eighteen something like that? So the stars are aligning for New Orleans to cover against the Kansas City Chiefs.
I don't know what the over under should be for Denver in Las Vegas, but in a game that could end up seventeen fourteen, I'm going to take the points with the Raiders two and a half against bone Knicks. I like bon Knicks. There's limitations. I just don't see the points here. I think Denver's defense has actually paid really well, and I think it will hold brock Bowers DeVante Adams. I don't think that trade happens till after this weekend. I have to take the points here with
the Raiders in a division rivalry game. Sharper Square.
Yeah, that's why you do take the points is because it's the division rivalry game. Because why would you take a rookie quarterback as a favorite when he just came off a game where he literally had the most putrid offensive stats that have happened since the nineteen sixties. You know, minus seven yards passing at one point. But the challenge here and the wise guys are totally split, so you're
not going to get like a definitive Sharper Square. Personally, I have bet the Raiders at plus two and a half. But I know a lot of guys who are taking the Broncos here. Their defense isn't just good, their defense is elite, like they're playing at a top five level. And you're going against a Raiders team where Max Crosby we still don't know what kind of health he will be in for the game. They have offensive line issues as well. Obviously Devonte Adams will not be playing in
that game. I don't know that that matters to me. That's not a reason to bet or not bet. But I do think Gardner Mischew under pressure about sixty two percent QBR and he's not under pressure. He's in the nineties. So something the Broncos do really well is pressure the quarterback top five, So that's going to be a challenge. I think I'm still gonna be on the Raiders because ultimately I like the trend of betting the division the
dogs in the division. But it's a tricky one. It's not like a definitive Sharper square.
Okay. I always ask you for a game that I did not bet, but I kind of have a weird feeling about it. So it's Panthers plus three and a half at the Bears. So Caleb's gotten better every week, And I ask you about a game that I feel like the number tells me bet Carolina. Not that they'll be regression, but Andy Dalton is moving the ball. You know, these middle class quarterbacks, forget politicians. They have saved the
middle class in America. Darnald Baker, Gino Dalton. I mean, really, these middle guys who are good at their craft, you don't pay a ton. They all have good weapons, I take Carolina here right.
Yeah, I'm on Carolina now. This is another one to bring it full circle. Sunday night. Sunday night, we'll do a show the Favorites Podcast at seven thirty. We will do it as soon as the late afternoon East Coast games end will be off the air before the Sunday night football game. The point of the show is to preview the early lines that we already like where we want to get an edge. This line Sunday Night, seven thirty,
Carolina plus five. I bet it right away. It went down to four and a half, It went down to four, it went down to three and a half. Wise guys took it at three and a half. I still think you're getting half a point of value on Carolina at three and a half. I don't think the Bears in a position to be four point favorites over anybody, even though Kayla Williams is three and one against the and has done this in an unprecedented way for rookie quarterbacks.
This is really coming down to Carolina being an incredibly good run blocking team. Pro Football Focus does these great ratings and rankings of every player, but also every unit in every kind of style. Carolina is run blocking this year is top two in the league. The Bear's run
defense is mediocre. And I do think with Andy Dalton, who is going to have a harder time throwing against the Bears coverage which is really excellent, and throwing against their pass rush, which has also been excellent, they are going to try to change the pace of this game, make it a slower game, which will be probably lower scoring, be a little bit closer. So I still like anything with Carolina over a field goal.
Do you look as we move into October at weather in Chicago, because if it's choppy and windy, it helps Carolina totally.
I mean, look, Andy Dalton, this is what's interesting about the Panthers, and every professional better loved the Panthers coming into this season. They felt like they had made huge improvements on their offensive line primarily, that is why. And they thought Dave knelis coming in. He had done wonders with Gino in Seattle, he had done wonders with Baker Mayfield in Tampa. We thought that he would do well
with Bryce Young. It's amazing to me two weeks in, whether it was David Tepper, the owner, or Canalis himself pulling the cord on Bryce Young, saying our team is too good, We've got opportunities to win. Let's go with Andy Dalton. That's when a quarterback like Andy Dalton start to help you, as in circumstances like that.
All right, what's the game I missed that you like? It's usually an egregiously bad watch on television.
Oh my god, I can't believe I'm going to say this to you. You actually hit most of the games. You missed one. I'm looking down at my notes here.
Miami New England, No.
Come on, come on. I did explain to my son the other day. We were watching a bunch of games, and I forget which game it was. I'm like, this is the corner TV game and I sort of indoctrinated him. Like nobody gets it anymore because they got red Zone and you can, you know, do four boxes of games or you put up multiple screens in your house. But like they don't remember that back in the day in the sports book, there's a game on in the corner that nobody wants to watch, but they have to put
it up because somebody bet it. I don't have a corner that in Miami New England game is the corner TV game. I am gonna see if I can entice you on a little bit of Arizona at plus seven and a half against Samprusco forty.
Well McBride, the tight end is healthy. It's a division game. They've actually had a few moments where they've given the Niners trouble. I get that. That's again like Burrow, I don't get a good team. I get a good quarterback with weapons and points. It's hard not to take it.
Yeah, and plus teams to lose by twenty eight like the Cardinals the previous week twenty eight or more, and then our dogs are four or more the following week sixty two percent against the spread the past twenty years, not just that. If a team that lost by seventeen is playing a team that won by seventeen or more the previous week, sixty percent against the spread the past twenty years. These division dogs fifty six percent since twenty twenty, like NFL dogs. This year we've talked about the dogs
and fade, you know, all that kind of stuff. NFL Dogs is six six plus points nine and eighth straight up fourteen and two against the spread through the first four weeks. So either that trend is going to end, but I'm willing to ride it in this spot.
Chad Millman All lads provided by DraftKings Sharper Square. First of all, if we get we're going to get the Podreis Dodgers, great series, insane, we may get Mets Phillies. What are the odds makers say on Dodgers' Podreys Because the Dodgers have had pitching injuries all year. This is probably the most talented Padres team of my life, including the World Series Padres team between Machado Tatis. They're batting Champ leading off Jackson Merrill, the rookie. They made moves
to the trade deadline to bolster their staff. What are the odds makers think?
Well, look, the Dodgers are going to be favored, not heavy favorites, like I'm looking right now. Like even in the first game, it's minus one thirty plus one fourteen, so like, and that's a home game for the Dodgers. It's it's not break even, but it's as close as
it can get without being even. So you're not going to get a huge edge, but it's definitely gonna be The Dodgers, don't forget as amazing as the Padres have been, and you know, the best team in Major League Baseball the second half of the year, and a lineup that is just cranking right now. And obviously the Dodgers have had injury and especially with their rotation, it's still the Dodgers.
It's still one of the two most popular teams in Major League Baseball, and it's still, to use NFL betting parlance, they're the public team. So the bookmakers are going to shade it in favor of the Dodgers if there is ever even a remote possibility that two teams are even now. Also the fact they won, there's going to be some kind of home field advantage if there needs to be, so you're going to get the Dodgers as slight favorites.
As Olas Sharper Square Chad Millman, thank.
You see your brother the volume.
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