Will climate change affect my holiday?

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Have you seen the news? A heat wave has been wreaking havoc across Europe. Fires. have blazed and tourists in Crete have been evacuated as wildfires approach their hotel. uh was uh getting uh closer to our hotel and then they evacuated the hotel and they uh brought us here. The stuff was absolutely amazing. They did everything for our safety.

It was the hottest June on record for Western Europe, that's according to the EU's climate service, Copernicus. And it's not just Europe. Holidays to the Caribbean or to low-lying islands in the Pacific may also become less appealing. And so on the climate question from the BBC World Center. Thinking, how will our holidays change? Will we just go somewhere else? Or maybe travel at a different time of year? I'm your tour guide, Grea Jackson.

With me is the person who inspired this show with an article he wrote for the BBC website, which sparked a huge response from audiences. It's BBC weather presenter and meteorologist. Simon King. Hi Simon. Hello. How are you? I'm very well, thank you. Yes. What prompted you to write this? So in twenty twenty three I had a summer holiday booked to Rhodes, but only a few days beforehand we started seeing wildfires starting to spread in Rhodes.

And we're obviously looking at it closely, thinking about our own holiday coming up and whether or not that was going to be affected and then The weekend before we were due to fly out, we'd had a message to say that our holiday had been cancelled because of those wildfires and really that's kind of got me thinking about climate change and whether things like this may happen more in the future.

And it also kind of led on to other conversations I had with other friends and family about heat because I know that anecdotally some people are now just finding it too hot to visit some Mediterranean destinations because of the heat and that their kids can't necessarily cope in temperatures in the high thirties, low forties. So again, it just prompted me to think about, well, how is this going to change the tourist industry going forward?

And of course, two years later, we're seeing something similar happen again. In Crete, people are being evacuated from hotels as wildfires approach. Yeah, over the last week or so we've just seen another big heat wave, haven't we? And that has had an impact on Tourists, we know in Paris because of the heat there the Eiffel Tower was shut for a couple of days because of the authorities worrying about people queuing in heat waves. And you spoke to quite a few people who were affected by

in various ways because of these increasing heat waves. And of course lots of people also commented and chimed in with their experiences. Could you just tell us what some people were saying? Certainly during the the roads wildfires I spoke to a few holidaymakers there and they said it was like a disaster film. You know, it was very, very traumatic.

Nid oeddwn i'n cael ei fod yn rhywbeth o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn o'r hyn Mae'n llawer yn llawer. Rwy'n dweud i'r llawer o'r llawer o'r llawer o'r llawer o'r llawer o'r llawer o'r llawer o'r llawer o'r llawer.

I think what I've seen and and what people commented on this is that it might take two or three kind of incidents of where you're impacted directly because of a heat wave or because of a wildfire or even a flash flood.

If you're directly impacted by these things, that is when you might start to make different decisions and plan and think more about where you go on holiday and make different decisions. So there might be a tipping point where While many of us may not be thinking about it now, give it a few more years and it might become more in the conversation and the decision making of where we go.

Hmm. I mean we've talked a lot about lots of different extreme weather here, be it heat waves, we've talked about forest fires, and you've also mentioned floods as well. What is the connection to climate change here? So with heat waves we know and scientists are very clear that the heat waves are gonna become more frequent. They are going to become longer and more intense. So the highest temperatures that you see within a heat wave will be higher.

The other thing is that rainfall patterns are changing, so that in the summer you get more intense thunderstorms. So overall, while it might be drier, when you do get rainfall it comes in much shorter, more intense downpours, summer storms. So that could lead to some flash flooding. And again we have seen that in the past few years. In twenty twenty one, for example, there was massive flash floods across Europe in the summer.

And climate change is a global phenomenon. What else do we know about other holiday destinations and how they're being affected in a warmer world? Yeah, so while Europe of course is the fastest warming continent and and heat waves and wildfires are a concern there, we know that obviously with climate change we're gonna see rising sea levels and that can have a a bigger global impact. by the end of the century. Yn ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud.

That has massive implications for the tourism industry, the Maldives. A lot of the Caribbean islands, they are typically less than one metre above sea level. they are having to look in and to how they can adapt and how they can adjust their tourism because of sea level rise. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology have said that cyclones become more intense in the future. So the Pacific Islands are

Potentially going to see a changing weather patterns and impacts because of cyclones. So globally, sea level rise may impact a lot of these beachside resorts. Simon King, thank you so much for joining us today on the climate question. Thank you.

I would like to introduce you to two experts who we're going to explore these themes further with. First, Dr Suzanne Etti, Global Environment Impact Manager of the Travel Company Intrepid. Hi Suzanne, how are you doing? I'm doing well. Great to be here. Now may I introduce you to Stefan Gosling, Professor of Tourism Research at Linnaeus University in Sweden. Stefan, how big is the effect of climate change on holidaymakers more broadly and the industry? I think we are just at the beginning of

Seeing the impacts of climate change on tourist behavior. Obviously, we have raised temperatures. Uh, that obviously is something that people discuss, but there's also floods and um other extreme events such as algae blooms or New conditions in the ocean that we have not witnessed before. We have also acid losses, uh, losses if you think about snow and beaches.

that uh start to disappear in some regions fresh water is becoming more scarce, there's impacts on biodiversity, all of that is affecting tourism already, at least regionally and temporally. and uh can lead to another category of impact change, which is revenue shortfall. If you don't have the conditions for skiing, for example, then you don't have a product.

And um climate change related costs have been rising in the background, maybe not so much noticed as an indirect impact of climate change, but insurance and security has become a concern for the industry. We also have damage that is not insurable. There is the low carbon transition that is costly. And then uh many food staples such as coffee have become more expensive in recent years also due to climate change. So there's a whole network of impacts that starts to affecting tourism at this point.

Stefan, we'll come back to the rising costs or the potential rising costs in a minute because Suzanne I really want to understand how this is shaping businesses. Are we seeing a shift in holidaymakers' habits and patterns? We're definitely seeing that playing out also those impact of these events to Intrepid. So just to give you a context, so in 24, we dealt actually with hundred and

51 extreme weather-related incidences. But already this year, that number has actually doubled compared to this time last year. So they're definitely these incidents are becoming more frequent. We're definitely as a business. don't run our most active trips nowadays in Spain and Portugal during July and August. if we're seeing these higher temperatures or rising temperatures having an effect on tours. We are definitely making changes to the itinerary.

on the day. For example, our tour leaders now schedule visits to major sites to suit basically a cooler temperature. So maybe to do it, for example, early in the morning. or do it in the evening. So there's also kind of a changes in our comms with the customers when we experience those extreme heats. And we have actually added more departures.

of our southern European trips in the shoulder season. So that's around the April, May and September and October. Cause we're really seeing more people taking up those options if they can do that at a time when it's actually cooler. quieter and at times also cheaper. I think we're definitely seeing more climate conscious travelers, also the renewed interest in nature-based tourism to connect with nature.

The other thing that we're seeing with customers is that holiday makers are really seeking these cooler temperatures, also going up north in Europe. So there has been actually now a twenty one percent year on year increase. in travelers visiting Scandinavia. We have opened an office in Copenhagen and also now actually increasing our range by 50% for next year to meet that demand.

So you're describing how businesses are adapting, but Stefan, are countries adapting as well? Difficult for an entire country to adapt. Obviously, some countries have the free S product, predominantly the sun, sand, and sea. It's very hard to find alternative activities. I think what people can do mostly is to rest during the hottest period of the day and then return to the beach perhaps during a cooler time.

And um only a few countries so far in Europe have developed adaptation plans to better cope with expected challenges. Suzanne. Definitely, as Stefan said, there are several different forms of extreme weather events that we are experiencing. Things like cyclones that like in Australia we don't normally see them in sort of

Queensland, um, around Brisbane, but then earlier this year we experienced that. And This definitely is for travelers something that you can't plan for, but we need also kind of raise the awareness and communicate so people are also aware and especially around how to trouble while there is a heat wake, for example, but also when we are seeing wildfires happening, for example, extreme floodings, is there enough warning systems in place in destinations?

And I think that's a big thing also for destinations to understanding the full risk and impacts of climate change. If you're a country like the Maldives or, you know, an island in the Caribbean that depends very heavily on tourism for their economic income. What do countries like that do if there is going to be less and less tourism because it's more and more expensive?

An um analogue is perhaps COVID. We have seen what happens to countries that are very dependent on tourism have lost during the COVID pandemic up to forty percent of their GDP. that will happen again or at least the the tourism product is in danger.

and the more of a long haul destination you are, the more likely it is that you will be affected by climate change. And that is simply for the reason that We need to see changes in the cost of fuels in order to reduce emissions to day climate change, otherwise we'll end up in a cycle where tipping points probably have a far larger impact on our daily lives to the point where tourism is our l last concern.

My recommendation is that the model of focusing on one single industry, that is tourism, might have been easy, but it's not a future model for these destinations.

Hm. Now Stefan, you mentioned that holidays are becoming more expensive, not necessarily just because of climate change. But in future do we have any sense of how much more expensive they'll be? I think it will be very difficult to pinpoint future price rises also because ultimately will enter a period when holiday making will become difficult, even for other reasons such as socioeconomic stability in the destinations.

We have examples where studies have already looked into uh skiing because it's such an exposed industry. increased snow making in the US and two hundred and twenty six ski areas, for example, was investigated in one study and they had a cost that was in the order of a quarter billion US dollars. think about Australia and the wildfires that was put at I think two point eight billion Australian dollars the cost of that for tourism. If you just think about sustainable aviation fuels.

If you flew with those, that would probably double the price of travelling as it is. So um expect a massive increase in the cost of travel in the future is my recommendation. Suzanne, are you having to increase the prices of your tools as a result of climate change? What we have seen is really the impact actually around last minute or on ground changes to antenna. So like um cyclone Alfred that I mentioned earlier this year hitting Queensland in Australia because

Brisbane Airport was not accessible to us had to be rerouted. So that can happen, like ground changes to antennaes or trip cancellation. And that can definitely come as an additional cost for us. Think also about our suppliers, but also travelers, because consumers might have to book last-minute flights, just to give you a practical example. I just need to take a moment to remind listeners that this is the climate question from the BBC World Service.

If journalism is the first draft of history, what happens if that draft is flawed? In 1999, four Russian apartment buildings were bombed, hundreds killed. But even now, we still don't know for sure who did it. It's a mystery that sparked chilling theory. I'm Helena Merriman, and in a new BBC series, I'm talking to the reporters who first covered this story. What did they miss the first time? The History Bureau. Putin and the apartment bombs. Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

I'm Greg Jackson.

This week we're asking how will our holidays change? We've talked about increased extreme weather, the disruption and stress that's causing, as well as how our holidays might get more expensive. But now I want to talk to our guests about whether we should even go on holiday at all if we want to fight climate change, because nearly 9% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Come from tourism. Now, seeing as you are a professor of tourism, Stefan Gosling, you first. Should we go on holiday?

Definitely. These changes. That we need to expect will not mean that anyone can go on holiday anymore. It's probably rather that we will choose different destinations. And also that some habits that are rather problematic, like uh people flying on a city break every second weekend, that might have to change, but not the general opportunity to go on holiday. Intrepids Doctor Suzanne Etty, same question to you. Given its carbon footprint, should we go on holiday at all?

I very much agree with Stefan. This is not about um stopping travel, but it's more around considering how we travel where we travel and how frequent Being here in Europe at the moment, I'm certainly enjoying being connected again to like the extensive rail network, but that's definitely here in Europe a huge opportunity that can be embraced more.

But yeah, it is really around how we're doing it and to be more conscious. How many flights we do in a year, can we kind of stay longer and have more local trips? But I think it's also the role of the travel and tourism industry to really understand their impact through measuring your emissions and really focusing on what is in your control to decarbonize your business.

We've talked a lot about flying, Stefan. Is that where the majority of the emissions from holidays come from? Yes, you mentioned uh the uh nine percent that global tourism is contributing to emissions. I was part of that study. We also calculated that air transport is 52% in this. And uh unfortunately it's long haul trips that are the biggest problem if you fly within Europe.

that is usually not something that will weigh too heavily on your personal carbon balance. But as soon as we engage in long haul trips, we easily exceed annual emissions of an average human with just one flight. Suzanne, you mentioned, you know, what the industry is doing about its carbon footprint and its role. I mean, how can they bring down their emissions? So we measure our emissions from our operations and also from our trips.

And in the last three years we have spent time understanding our trip emissions in more detail and actually released in twenty-two carbon labels on over eight hundred of our itineraries, including our top one hundred. And those carbon labels, think about it like nutrition labels. So they give a number per passenger per day. What is really important that it does not include the customer flight getting to and from the destination. It's really about the trip.

But what we're seeing is really that even within a trip. Transportation is often the biggest part of the emissions. and then followed by accommodation, but we are also looking at meals that are included at waste and an activities. And that's really helping A to kind of provide climate conscious customer an opportunity to look at the impact of the trip itself, plus providing them

With further information, how they can look into their own flights and the emissions coming from that. But the other part is also as a business that gives us. insight to really kind of drill down into individual trips and regions, really looking at ways how can we reduce those emissions. So a big part for us is that over ninety five percent of our emissions actually sit in our supply chain accommodations, our airport transfer suppliers, et cetera. So it's a collective problem.

Hm. I mean, what you've said really highlights how difficult it is to bring down emissions because there are so many people involved. You also talked about sort of like the transparency around travel emissions. You know, you talked about carbon labelling. And I wanted to talk to you a bit more about this because the advertising standards authority here in the UK upheld a complaint

about one of Intrepid's adverts a couple of years ago. The advert showed two women in front of the pyramids of Giza with the slogan People and Planet Friendly Small Group Adventures. And The advertising standards authority said it was misleading because it did not take into account the flights which most travellers would have to take.

to get to Egypt before joining an intrepid tour. And I guess what that really shows to me is the complexity for the industry as a whole around how you are transparent around these emissions. Yeah, no, absolutely, can a hundred percent agree. It was definitely a really important learning. And it really prompted us to take a whole scale look at how we talk about the trips in relation to

sustainability and climate. And it really kind of shows that when the regulations were just beginning to change in at that time, now business, like including us Intrepids, are much more conscious of how we talk about. this information and that it really can benefit all of us. because it is really we're rejecting all forms of greenwashing. Definitely the customer flight is for everyone, the big elephant in the room. It's very hard to measure in the first instance.

but also kind of how do we support customers to have that awareness. to understand how they can influence how they get to and from destination and especially of course the impact is biggest when we're looking at the long haul flight.

Stefan, what would your advice be to people who are perhaps listening, packing their bags to go on holiday? What would you advise them? Enjoy it. It's very important to enjoy a holiday and to make the most of it. Obviously I would hope for people to support policies that take climate change more seriously. Please consider then on the personal level that it is you ultimately, together with eight billion other people.

who make this world the place it is. And it is individual decisions that weigh into the big outcome that is climate change. And that is uh somet that we really want to limit because we need a stable climate future, not just for us, but for our children. Suzanne, same question for you. Every one of us is looking forward to the joy of travel having just come back from the Bagadina, but it's really also stay informed so that you know whether there are any risks you need to be across.

And it is really around also voting with your money and to make those decisions to support businesses, hotels that are already doing the right thing, that are already investing into say energy efficiency or particularly supporting the transition to renewable energy. So I think there's a real opportunity also for travelers to make decisions when they book their holidays. What businesses are there supporting during their holidays?

Dr. Suzanne Eti, Professor Stefan Gosling, thanks so much for joining me on the climate question. Thank you so much for having us. Thank you so much. Production team with Diane Richardson, Simon Watts, Tom Brignall, and Dave O'Neill. I'm Greg Jackson. I'll be back next week as always. So I hope you'll join us then if you're not on holiday. If journalism is the first draft of history, what happens if that draft is flawed?

In 1999, four Russian apartment buildings were bombed, hundreds killed. But even now, we still don't know for sure who did it. It's a mystery that sparked chilling theories. I'm Helena Merriman, and in a new BBC series, I'm talking to the reporters who first covered this story. What did they miss the first time? The History Bureau. Putin and the apartment bombs. Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts.