Will Trump Drag The United States Into WAR With Iran?

whispered something new in his ear. Because he's now sharing this, he appears to be leaning this way. I mean, we know President Trump is notorious for buying into the last best argument that somebody makes to him on any given time when it comes to what to do here with Iran. There is a lot of competing voices that are in his head, and I think that is you know, if you want to know why, it's unclear.

towards some sort of military action that the Americans may engage in with the Israelis. But the fact that it is not clear, I do think is a reminder that this, particularly when it comes to foreign policy and international engagement, there's a real divide. I mean, I think there's a bigger divide in the Republican Party on this stuff than

there is in the Democratic Party. There's certainly a divide in the Democratic Party on Israel, but I don't think there's near the amount of divide, for instance, when it comes to Ukraine or when it comes to even Iran, although there's certainly I think that the divide on Iran is whether this is all whether military action should be on the table or not. There isn't a disagreement, and frankly,

there's not a disagreement on the Republican side that you know, everything needs to be done to stop or you know, Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. And if Iran looks around the world, there really isn't an incentive to stop getting a nuclear weapon.

nuclear weapons and sort of the global order, if you will. Right, Libya is one of the great examples that Afi was convinced to stand down on any sort of ambition to go nuclear and he was out of power within how long. Right, So that is one of those uncomfortable examples that does make this an extra difficult situation, which is why diplomacy hasn't been hasn't always been the best answer, or hasn't worked yet. I don't want to say it's not the best answer I think diplomacy that works is always a

better answer than some sort of military intervention. But we're in this limbo because it is because I do think

you have President Trump, who frankly got traction in the Republican Party by going against the Bush doctrine, right, going against the orthodoctory. In fact, it wasn't that long ago that a President Trump went to Saudi Arabia to say that the United States was no longer going to lecture other countries on their values that you know, partnerships for partnerships. So how does then that apply to Iran? Right on that front? Are we going to be selective about it?

We obviously what Donald Trump said in Saudi Arabia, which was meant for the audience and the Gulf States where you've had others, including Joe Biden and Barack Obama, who've been uncomfortable with the values that Saudi Arabia and Qatar and the UAE promote or don't promote if you will, and how much we want to be in business or in bed with them.

like trade relationships for instance. But on what But this is where I think that at any time anybody wants to engage in what I would call real politique, right, which is you got to sort of you deal with the countries that you have, not the countries that you want. You have the diplomacy that you have, not the diplomacy that you want, But we have this selective outrage. Like you know, for years, Republicans have treated China differently than

they've treated Cuba. Right, Cuba's been punished because it's to punish, China hasn't because it's harder to punish. And yet arguably they've both committed the same some of the same crimes against you know, human rights violations that that we have frowned upon. So it I do think that candidate Donald Trump would obviously have said he is not going to

go off and and and go down this road. But look, there's there is an opportunity. And I understand some that are advising him sit there and say, look, Iron's never been this week. Right, hes Belah has been nearly decapitated, Hamas is on the run, the Hutis have stood down. All of the Iranian proxies that gave Iran sort of

extra strength in that region are in bad shape. Right, Israel has done since October seventh, has done a remarkable job in decapitating Hesbelah and certainly weakening Hamas, and that has had an indirect effect on Iran. Iran has always been better at the asymmetric battle field than it is in conventional warfare. And I think we're about to find out. This feels like it's not really that close to a call.

Iran is definitely taking more damage than Israel is here, but Israel cannot eradicate Iran's nuclear program without the help

of the United States. Now, this is where I think there's a lot of things that get tricky here for the president. If he goes ahead, if he does go ahead and do this, well, if number one, you better succeed. You got to wipe out the nuclear program. Right, there's no pin prick here. You do or you not do. I don't think you can half go in. And we know Donald Trump likes to preserve every possible option, and

he almost wants to know. He wants to be able, even at the last minute, be able to move from one position.

you know, we did a great job. We really helped them. And suddenly he's talking in the Royal We But look, he does have a Congress problem. I'd say they call it a problem, not a confrontation coming because I don't think this Congress is going to confront this president on what could be an abuse of the War Powers Act if he does act this quickly.

At the time, the thought was these terrorists could be anywhere and you couldn't you couldn't identify a single country or things like that. But obviously this the the definition of it is so widened that it does seem to make the power that Congress supposedly handed over to the executive branch on this uh, probably too much and probably something that needs to represented. But there's yet to be an agreement on how to do this. There's a couple attempts.

You're going to see some people introduce some acts, you know something and congre but it's not going to go anywhere. If he wants to do this, there'll be a majority in Congress, mostly Republicans, but some Democrats that support if

it's support a strike if it's limited. But here's the thing. We already have a situation that has a little bit of a little bit of rhyming with the Iraq debacle. We go into Iraq based on faulty intelligence about weapons of mass destruction. The question about how soon is Iran going, how close is Iran to a nuclear weapon is definitely up for debate. The Israeli intelligence and the American side. They have the same set of facts and they've come to different conclusions.

Israelis on this, he is that is a risk. That's how George W. Bush based is not on a Israeli intelligence, but on the intelligence of multiple countries, including our own and these were assessments that were made by our intelligence agencies, and they were wrong. There's always a risk they're wrong. There's also a risk that, no matter how powerful these bunk or buster bombs are, what if it doesn't work.

What if you've created a situation where you fail to eradicate the nuclear program, they kind of survive the regime and they end up regrouping, or you do complete regime change. Who's rebuilding Iran? Is America going to be at the forefront of rebuilding Iran? Are we in the nation building business? If you follow through on regime change, which clearly the

president is. He's it's almost like he's toying with it with his with his tweets of saying, we know where you are, Kamani, but we're not going to go after you yet, right, so certainly wants to a public threat there. Obviously, this is no way to conduct international form policy.

But that's probably the best way to understand.

number two. I do think there are enough people who are at least warning him that, hey, this stuff is never it's never as easy as you think.

and even the first Iraq war, and I do think there was a sort of a generation of national security folks who thought, hey this, you know, these little surgical strikes can work. That sort of a police force type military can work. That all worked until it didn't with Iraq, right, That all worked until it didn't with Afghanistan. Iran is not Grenada, Iran is not Libya, and it.

time with with maximum pressure and using playing good cop bad cop with Babie. But it does feel as if Trump's been being he is backed into a corner here. Israel has had initial success. There's a window of opportunity if you do believe it's doable. There is a window of opportunity, and there's risk of him not taking advantage of this window opportunity. And there's risk if they go about it the wrong way, And there's risk even if they succeed So look, this is not an easy decision.

Presidential decisions no matter who's behind that desk. If they were easy, they wouldn't I remember hearing this from plenty of previous presidents. If the decisions were easy, they would have been decided upon before they got to the president's desk. You do get a sense that everybody around him is sort of has their own opinion but is afraid of owning it, and so they're all just sort of whispering in his ear. And he does, in this case, have

a team of rivals articulating different positions. So, however you

view President Trump and his leadership style here, I think is atrocious. You should it should make you feel better that they're at least diverse voices in that room, in that in the situation room, so that all possibilities are being laid out for him. In that sense, right, that is much better than having group. So look, it is I can't believe this is how we're all watching, waiting for the tweet that either announces or pulls back, which is kind of ridiculous. This is no way to run

a globe. This is no way the leader of the free world should behave. But I'm trying to find a few green shoots here, and the tallest green shoot is the fact that at least there's a diversity of voices in that room articulating different different ways to go about this problem. So we shall see as the President might tweet himself. Stay tuned.

actually became president. Boy, you know, he'll make war decisions on a tweet and he'll do this, and it all is actually happening, and it's become weirdly normalized that we all now kind of expect and we're waiting here, and sadly, I think Donald Trump loves this nothing more than any that we're all have no choice but to wait to see what the former host of The Apprentice is going

to decide who gets voted off who doesn't. And in that sense, that's kind of an absurd way that America is representing.

to be. Wins Earl Sears the lieutenant governor, Republican Abigail Spanberger the Democratic nominee, former congresswoman from that swing district that sort of resides in between Richmond and the northern Virginia suburbs. Let's be honest, this is a if Democrats

don't win Virginia fairly handily based on the anger of federal workers doze frankly recent history right where seven of the last eight Virginia elections went the exact opposite of the previous presidential election. All of the signs are pointing to a Democratic victory. I think the question is is it a route right? Is it a clean sweep? For the most part, it is rare for Virginia. They have three statewide held, state wide elected state offices governor, lieutenant governor,

and Attorney general. It is rare for the party that wins the governorship not to be able to also win at least one, if not both of the other two down ballot statewide races we saw there has been We've had previously, we had a Republican governor with a Democratic attorney general. But for the most part, usually it's usually

a clean sweep. There's barely a distinction usually between whatever the gubernatorial races. Only if there is some sort of unique set of circumstances with a lieutenant governor candidate or an AG candidate, do you see it any differently? The most interesting aspect of the Virginia gubernatorial race is that Virginia's going to elect its first woman governor, because both

parties have women as their nominees. The first Virginia race I covered professionally was Virginia Governor in nineteen ninety three. The Democratic nominee was the sitting Attorney General, Mary su Terry, and she was trying to make history replacing the state's first African American governor with the state's first female governor. Well, that didn't happen. George Allen beat her in an upset, and Virginia held on to its status as sort of a bit of a zagger whenever the country zigs in

the previous presidential election. So I do think the more interesting elections in this off year not going to be

in Virginia this year. They're going to be in New Jersey and they're going to be in New York City. In New Jersey, Jack Conidarelli and Mikey Cheryl are the two candidates there. Mikey Cheryl the Democratic nominee of a Member of Congress, Jack Ciarelli, who was the nominee for governor. He came within a few points of knocking off the incumbent Phil Murphy four years ago. Look, they put out a poll. Carelli's campaign put out a poll that has

Cinerelli only down three points forty five forty two. It's about where I expect this race. I think this is going to be a very close race. I think the atmospherics favor the Democrats generally. We know that without Trump on the ballot, Democratic turnout and non Trump non MAGA turnout seems to outperform MAGA on that front. But if the Republicans do have success this cycle, it will be in New Jersey. This is a state that Trump continues to improve his standing in every election he's done a

little bit better. He did very well in this previous presidential I'm convinced, for instance, Joe Biden been the nominee on the ballot, Trump might have carried New Jersey. So it's it's I do think if Trump does campaign, and I don't know if he will be on the stump very often, but if he does campaign this calendar here, my guess is it will.

some unique, unique coalitions. And there's a new TV ad that two of the challengers to Andrew Cuomo who are trailing him, but they kind of need each other because Zoran, Mom Donnie and Brad Lander. They have essentially started to run jointly. Now they have a cute little ad where they're getting ready to go get a cup of coffee, and it's like you go second, you go second, because the idea is one would rank. You know, what they're

doing is saying, hey, we want my supporters. You rank me one, you rank the other guy too, and then vice versa. Because they're trying to create that whichever one, it's traction that they're able to stop Cuomo. I do think that that both of them are probably too progressive, particularly on the on the issue of Israel, that is that is probably going to uh make it hard for them to topple Cuomo. And you know, I don't I'd be surprised if Mom Donnie was able to pull this off.

In many ways, the ranked choice voting method has been you know, the more conservative or the more progressive you are, the less successful they seem to be in elections that feature ranked choice voting. So I'm skeptical that Mom Donnie or Lander's going to get there. But it's a fascinating, you know end cape Lander getting arrested. Perhaps that was something he hoped for a confrontation, certainly getting him plenty

of plenty of press right before the primary election. So I'm not as convinced going you know, when you're trying to win an election and you're not talking about the issue. You know, I'm not saying these ice rates aren't issues for some New York City voters, but it's an indirect right. It's more of a federal issue. It's more of a national issue. Is that going to be a driver of

turnout for voters in New York City? I don't know, but I'm a had skeptical whenever you're not sort of focused on bread and butter, focused on what you know, focused on housing, focused on the subway, things like that. One other notable New York update for what it's worth. Richie Torres, who of course I've had as a guest here who's planning a run for governor, says he's not going to run for governor if Zoran mom Donnie is elected mayor. Now you know, Richie Torres very pro Israel

he is. I can't tell if I would call him a reluctant Cuomo supporter when he was on the podcast, but he said he's a Cuomo supporter, and it's primarily, I think because everybody else is just too progressive for him. But here's what Torres said. He is look, he goes, I'm out of the twenty twenty six race for governor if he had to deal with a socialist mayor of the nation's largest city, referring to Mam Donnie. So in some ways you do sort of as and this is

what I was wondering about. As Mom Donnie has gotten more traction, right, Bertie Sanders is endorsed to me, he has endorsed him, that you might see some of the sort of moderate Democrats or centrist Democrats of New York City start to push back and push back hard.

few other every Wednesday. I kind of want to do as best I can a little campaign update things that have caught my eye. As you know, I've singled out Michael Bennett, the Colorado Senator, Democratic Senator for some time. In fact, I talked to a recent Democratic Senator, a current Democratic Senator who's bummed that Michael Bennett is not going to stay in the Senate and is instead going to run for governor because this person had hoped Michael

Bennett would be a Schumer replacement. And in fact, if Michael Bennett had ever expressed any interest in being Senate Democratic leader, I think that he would have the votes to do it. And the fact that he's walking away right now, I think just tells you how much many Senators can't stand being in the Senate these days. The Senate isn't a fun place, and arguably the worst job in the Senate is being a Senate leader, either the set of Republican leader or the setate Democratic leader. It's

not a fun place to be. You're a walking and sometimes talking punching bag, and it's not a lot of fun. But Bennett looks like he could be on a glide path to the governor's mansion. In twenty twenty six. He's in a poll that was released by his campaign matched up against the sitting Attorney general, who was seen as somebody that was going to run had Bennett decided not to feel wiser. There, Bennett leads by over thirty points, already pulling over fifty percent in the primaries, pretty high

favorable ratings in the Democratic side seventy four percent. So look, I imagine that this is going to be more of a cake walk. In fact, both there's three senators seeking the governorship. You have Michael Bennett and Colorado, Marshall Blackburn and Tennessee, and Tommy Tupperville in Alabama. I'm going to make a bold prediction here that Tommy Tupperville has the closest race of the three. Not Michael Bennett and Colorado, not marxsh Blackburn in Tennessee, but Tommy Tupperville.

are more likely to defy the red blue tradition of a state than a center races, So just keep that in mind. A few other GUBERNATORI notes that I think folks ought to keep an eye on Byron Donalds, right, who's the congressman Donald Trump's already endorsed, He's running for governor in Florida, already up with an attack ad on the pot on a former Republican Member of Congress, David Jolly, who switch parties to run as a Democrat. David Jolly

might not even be the Democratic nominee. Donalds might not be the Republican nominee. And Donalds is already up with an attack ad that's on digital on Jolly, using try and using a lot of issues to hit him for being supportive of the Democratic Party. But I'd noticed the transgender issue was as prominent as any in this ad.

Not Donalds isn't the first. Quite a few Republicans are looking at that transgender ad that Trump used against Kamala Harris in the presidential and are looking for ways to bring that back as a way to try to define their opponent. In the case of Jolly, Jolly is trying to define himself as a reluctant Democrat who's just running there because as the Republican Party left him and there's no viable way to go. Fascinating to watch Donald's wanting

to brand Jolly as a as a Democrat, believing just simply that party label will be unpopular enough in the state of Florida. Be curious to see if Jolly has the money to push back and fight back and also worth your watch time. Ohio governor is also another governor's race that I think is going to be sneaky close. And I think it doesn't matter whether Tim Ryan runs or not. In fact, I actually think Tim Ryan wouldn't be the best candidate there. There is a candidate already

running named Amy Acton. Now, Amy Acton was the lead, was the doctor that Mike DeWine leaned on during COVID and proved to be one of the most one of the most effective state public health leaders there was. Now like anybody in the public health space, she became polarizing plea for articulating the best practices in the public health space. Well, she got very frustrated by the political scene. She's running

for governor as a Democrat. She's got a new ad going after Vivick Ramaswami, comparing you know and going all in on Elon Musk and Vivick. And what's interesting about the ad is it closes with Mike DeWine. The term limited Republican governor not running, one would assume he will probably reluctantly endorse Vivick Ramaswami, though we know he's not

a huge fan. In fact, he's been trying to recruit his new lieutenant governor, Jim Trussel, the former coach of Ohio State, to run because I know he's no fan of Ramaswami. Actin uses Diwine at a press conference praising Actin and said, you know, some superheroes wear capes. Here in Ohio, they wear a white coat, referring to Amy Actin there.

call her some sort of longtime democrat. She's been a public health official and then she just sort of decided to jump into politics. I know COVID's not exactly something anybody wants to talk about again, and maybe that alone will make it difficult for her to win, But.

Journal dot com. Obviously I used to work there. This is the type of thing I would have wanted the Hotline to be doing, and I'm ecstatic that they're doing something like this. They quote from Charlie Kirk from John Solomon Reports Human Events that's on the right hand side of things. They talk about the fight for on the left, where they're looking for their new Joe Rogan, I have some quotes from the Bulwark podcast. But anyway, take a look.

If you're trying, if you feel overwhelmed by not being able to keep track of this new independent podcast space, and you're wondering what topics are being discussed in the maga podcasting world, in the progressive podcasting world, and everybody in the middle between those two extremes, I think this newsletter is going to be something you find quite informative and quite helpful. They've had two editions of it so far. I think it's a home run. Kudos to my friends

there at National Journal. All right, let's do a little last chuck as Chuck all right. Question comes from Mario

from Mexico City. In fact, he writes, greetings from Mexico City. I followed you since your days to Meet the Press. I've listened to the vast majority of your episodes since you started podcasting. Appreciate your thoughtfulness and analysis. My question is, as follows. You have mentioned, we might not know the leader of a renewed Democratic party because he or she has yet to emerge. You've sided Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton,

and Barack Obama as examples. My question and challenge to that is that in this media environment, can you really emerge and compete with people who already have a brand and a following and perhaps hold prominent office. That is,

don't you think the visible potential leaders would hold an insturmountable advantage over someone new Given media today, I have trouble seeing anyone other than AOC Gavin Newsom, maybe Wes Moore, maybe Andy Basheer emerging. For that reason, of course, I'm thinking about to eight, but more so as a proxy for what the new Democratic Party would be about. In other words, I'm not sure. I'm not sure we should hold our breasts for a US version of New Labor.

By the way, I think the same is true of the Republicans, where Trump and Trump related people take up all the oxygen, thus thwarting any other leaders or political currents inside the party. Thanks for the great work. It's an interesting observation, Mario. I sort of look at it almost though that. Let me let me put it this way. Look at how quickly people become famous now in America, in that they can go from zero to famous almost immediately. Maybe it's a viral moment, right, I think the Hoktua

girl is. You know, I know that that's one weird example, But the point is.

going to feel stale by twenty eight. Look when we're talking about these folks twenty twenty five, can Newsom and AOC feel fresh three years from now in maybe the way they seem somewhat fresh today. So that's why I think it's possible. Look, Pete Bootajide, you could have made this same point in twenty sixteen, and yet Pete Bootajidge went from people but Dba bud Dabah Bibah right couldn't even pronounce his name to now everybody can figure out how to pronounce his name. In some ways, it was

it actually helped him go viral. There was this whole it's Buddha Judge or Buddha jidg. However you wanted to look at it right. He had these little phonetic ways that he would tell you how to say his name.

So I understand the point you're making. But I actually think in this day and age that when a unknown mayor of South Bend can become a front runner for the Democratic nomination within sort of two and a half three years of becoming relevant, I think that tells you we live in a media ecosystem that can quickly give you brand ID give you name recognition. So yes, I take your point, but I don't think it's harder. I don't think it's hard to become a name brand in

this current ecosystem. I actually think it's faster and easier. I mean, look at how quickly you can launch a brand and it's suddenly. I look at some retail brands hook this. I don't feel like I ever really saw it in a store or a TV commercials. It was just sort of went viral and all of a sudden, it's a mainstream brand. So yeah, I wouldn't underestimate the ease with which one can break into the media ecosystem.

House members impeached by their constituents or state legislators. Is that possible Michael's messaging about the shooting should be worthy of such actions. Politicians should be better than this. Thanks, well, Look, recalls are state level issues. You cannot both federally elected senators and federal elected House members. Their constitution does not provide a recall initiative. Now the chambers themselves, right, the House can kick somebody out of the House. The Senate

can kick somebody out of the Senate. We've had it sometimes. You know, Bob Menendez was going to get expelled if he didn't resign. Bob Packwood was going to get expelled if he didn't resign. So we've instances of that. But I doubt look as polarized as we are, and I think that US senators would be loath to have someone ousted for rhetoric because that's a slippery slope. Whatever people think of the of remember, he's got a First Amendment right to say it. So whatever you think of the rhetoric,

he does have it. But look, recalls on a state level, they can happen, and issues like this can trigger it. You know, Mike Lee is a head scratcher to me in general, the bullwork in an analysis that's been floating around. The guy seems to be way too online. You know, he needs to detox from online. Look, we know social media can be addictive. I think there's quite a few people on the left side and the right side of the spectrum that will spend way too much online time online.

It's always weird to me when elected officials, particularly Ted Cruise and Mike Lee, who seem to be more worried about social media communications or podcasting than they are doing the job of US senator. That's always been odd to me how much time, particularly the two of them, spend on They're they're sort of public comments. But you know, part of politics these days is communicating like this. So I'm not gonna sit here and say I don't think it's the best use of their time. But they have

decided it's the best use of their time. But Mike Lee's reputation, you know is really maybe he doesn't care, and I'm sure he doesn't. Right, he's got these two you know, he literally has a jeckyal and hide Twitter feed. Right, doctor Jekyl is the official office feed, right, and mister Hyde That's what it was, right, Mister Hyde was the crazy one, Doctor Jekyl was the was the doctor. I can't remember which who we decided was the crazy one and which one was the was the normal one?

I I'm hesitant. It's weird, you know that that people on the left, if they disagree with Fetterman, they want to say, oh, there must be something wrong with them. And I'm loath to say the same thing of the you know, is there something wrong with Mike Lee? But you do got to ask yourself if he spends way too much time online? It was something an inordinate amount of tweets on a daily basis, and you're sitting there going don't you have better things to do and better

things to focus on? A shot? Finally, last one is

a bit of a comment, but I thought it was. I'm going to share it because I want to give a shout out to my one of my producers, Nasa Davis, because she did she helped me with what's about to be a great compliment from one of our listeners. Not a question, but a note. I just want to share my sincere thanks for the details you provided in the June twelfth podcast, how does GOP reclaim Republican Party from Trump?

Regarding how forty five million dollars could be spent instead of the boondogle military parade on June fourteenth, I just send emails to my North Carolina US representative and North Carolina senators with those examples, expressing my outrage with the waste of money. Each time I read the examples to myself, particularly the fourteen million school lunches, I got choked up. What a tragedy, heartbreaking and enraging at the same time.

If more people, politicians, journalists, etc. Would provide this type of information, it would go a long way to help Americans see how their taxpayer money is not being used to help improve their lives. Thank you for continuing to keep us informed while making it interesting as well. I've been listening to you for ten years now. Thank you appreciate it. While sometimes the truth is harder to hear,

I feel more prepared to handle what's going on. Warm regards and Marie l Anne, Marie, thank you for those kind words. I especially like the fact is, while sometimes the truth is hard to hear, I feel more prepared to handle.

So you have to be able to cover politics as it is. But at the same time, that doesn't mean you shouldn't lay out and aspire to how politics could be or should be done. With that, I will take a twenty at least a twenty four hour break. And with that, by the way, check out my latest sub stack. We do a decade of Trump, what we've learned and what we still have to learn. When it comes to all things Donald Trump, it is whatever you think of them.

We haven't had a He's probably the most consequential president we've had, at least on our culture and on the on the presidency since FDR.