¶ Suzanne Kianpour joins the Chuck ToddCast
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¶ What Sparked the Protests in Iran
as well. Joining me now is Suzan Conpour. She is a veteran journalist co host of a podcast on global affairs. She's worked at NBC. Although we are paths only briefly, I think crossed back in her early days in NBC. She's been around the world. I just recently spent a lot of time with her, and I think this context matters.
In December at a media conference, and I think I had told told you guys, some of you that may remember it was an Abu Dhabi for a large media conference really very industry focused, as much of tactical parts of the of the media world as much as content parts of the media world. For instance, there was a
big gamer section to this to this conference. But I had the pleasure of being of having dinner with Susan and her husband and a bunch of other journalists and we had a fascinating conversation about Iran and about And this was in December. Abu Dhabi's got a big diaspora of Averaranians and it was in you know, I had basically was peppering Susan with all these questions. So I hear this, and I hear this, and it was like, boy, is this regime gonna fall? I mean, how bad is
things in Tehran? And there was this feeling it could be five months, but it may still be five years. All of this before any thought that we were going to see what we're seeing in the moment now, and so I couldn't think of a better time to try to catch up with Suzan than right now. Suzan, welcome to.
The tod tast Thank you, thanks for having me. Todd. I mean, it kind of feels like yesterday.
But well it does. We just sort of connect and
¶ Suzanne's background in Iran, how she became a conflict journalist
somebody's connected and we've been staying in touch since. And yet, my god, that was like a whole lifetime ago too, and it's only been literally, I think, four months, so that's we met Bobby.
That was December eighth, that day. So so my wedding, my first wedding anniversaries are dragged. My husband too, Yes, she did.
Well, he was at your conference.
You know, when my company values IPO is at a billion dollars somewhere down the line, it'll be a good story to tell.
That's right. You know, on our first anniversary we were able to you know, yadayada YadA.
Right, yeah, exactly. But a couple of weeks after that was when everything really kicked off over the holidays, and there wasn't a whole lot of media coverage on the protests that happened in Iran because of the currency tanked. So the currency tanked and people just it was like that was what made them snap, that was what made people snap. They poured into the streets. It'said, you know what this government's got to go down with. You can't even govern correct, you can't even keep the lights on
and can't keep the water going. And this is a oil rich country. And so that's why when we see things and I'm sure we'll get into all this, that's why we see reports about these leaders their real estate portfolios in Europe and London on billionaire's row being exposed. That's why it just hurts that much more.
Right, because this is so personal and visceral and just sort of basics and survival for folks that actually live in Iran at the moment. Before we get into all the current events, you tell me your story of how you ended up in journalism, your family history in Persia.
So I am literally a child of this conflict. My mother and father met in Alabama during the Aurun hostage crisis as students, and at the time, you know, on the evening newscast, there were images of American diplomats blindfolded and these insurgents holding Americans hostage. And so that was
the image of Iranians at the time. And so when my father went to go and propose to my mother, my grandfather Sicilian American came to the US on Ellis Island chased them off the lawn with a firearm because Granians were kind of seen as terrorists in many parts of the country, particularly at Alabama. And so, you know, years later, when I was born, the Iran I Rock conflict was a war was raging, and I ultimately ended up raised by my Persian aunt, my dad's sister, and
she taught me Farsi. But she was a war refugee, so she has a you know, she managed to make it to America through a pretty harrowing experience as a refugee through Europe to be able to make it here, you know. And then my first my first kind of memories of watching TV news was Desert Store. I grew up in Atlanta, and I grew up around lots of
newspapers in the house, the Atlanta Journal Constitution. I remember reading about Kosovo in Time magazine for kids, and so I was always, for some reason, probably sort of epigetically drawn to conflict resolution, because I had literally made up of a conflict and it took years for read to really even kind of recognize that thread.
And so then do you find yourself being a big media do you feel like you're always a mediate her? I mean, I you know, you know, I am. I'm a child of a mixed religious marriage, and for many of my father's side of the family, my mother was the first Jew many of them had ever met. Yeah, they weren't thrilled about it, you know, they didn't. She wasn't being chased off with a shotgun. So I'm not gunning too that. But she was always reminded that she was Jewish every time she went to that side of
the family. They was sort of like that's all they saw in her head, you know, type of thing. And
¶ Reporting on the Iran nuclear deal
so I know what it made me do. I'm always like, I just want everybody get along. Yeah, I'm just curious. Is that does that? Does that feel like that be a description? You're always just trying to like, hey, no, no, no, let's have some peace, you know.
And I think in a lot of ways, sort of being of a mixed background, you you can relate to different people, and so you end up automatically being that person and kind of being the convener and being the diplomatic kind of you.
Can be a chameleon to people or a test whatever you want to call it.
Yeah, exactly.
I mean.
So years later, after I left NBCi, I was at the BBC for most of my career, for almost twelve years, and I was covering the State Department, so I would travel with the Secretary of State and the around nuclear negotiations sort was sort of my breakthrough story. And I remember when the nuclear deal was reached, which obviously it ended up being a controversial deal. Many people weren't happy about it. A lot of the elements of what people
weren't happy about now is clear why. But I did a story on the women of the Iroun deal, which sort of ended up. I didn't realize it was at the time becoming now the company that I'm building and running. But at the time I did a story about the women of the around deal, and I interviewed Frederica Mugerini, who was the Italian representative, and we were before we
were before we did the interview. We were chatting about my background and she said, wow, you know, like you've got the Italian, you've got the Iranian, you've got the American. You work for the Brits, Like you should have been in there negotiating.
With right, you should have been part of the group.
Right.
Yeah, And it's true, you know, you kind of there's a lot of cultural nuances in global affairs and diploasi and current events, which is why sometimes I worry what I'm looking at who is advising the Trump.
Administration right now, because I think how the Iranians think and operate is they play the long game. It's an
¶ Could the Regime Have Fallen on Its Own?
ancient civilization and it show.
I mean, and you know the famous line from the Taliban, you've got the watches, We've got the time. I think there's a similar mindset perhaps with this regime, right.
Yes, and you know, they there's been so much criticism of the media from the diaspora, the Iranian diaspora. People are particularly upset at Fred for the CNN reporter who red plate and reporter who went in. Of course, it's I believe it's very important to be on the ground. Well, at some point you do kind of have to make a call of whether you're going to keep doing it, because whether you're going to keep sort of signing up to the rules.
But look, it's a tough decision. Look as you know Alia Rusi, you know, who's a dual citizen, our former colleague at NBC, the Tayran Bureauchi from you know, there were all sorts of you know, I mean, his mother lives in Tehran. You know, his mother you know, and there was always concern that the regime could threaten her and whether we were always we had to be mindful, you know, when we put them on air, because everybody's got a family.
But they, the Iranians, use the democratic tools that we have, the freedoms that we have to their advantage. They're quite clever in that regards. And you know, even though I know better, you know, like I know better, when they're so good at their craft that it's almost like they put you under a spell and you have to count yourself. And an Iranian will recognize that, but an American will even no matter how experienced you might be with them, because it's psychological manipulation.
Let's talk about sort of this. I'm look, we're using an artificial timeline here. When we first started, we were having this conversation, and in fact, I think I even said, I said, you know, I want to have you on because I think people I think the underrated story of twenty twenty six could be the downfall of this regime. I look, there's a lot of things in the Bingo card, the United States aggressively pursuing a preemptive strike against Iran.
I just never foresaw. And I know that there's the unpredictability of Trump, but there's always been a reason why previous American presidents have stopped Israel from doing this and have not done this for because of how how unmanageable
¶ People in Iran are afraid and are staying at home
the potential fallout could be. But I think what we were discussing is, hey, you know, can this regime hold If you can't even get hotable water, you know, drinking water in Tehran? If you can't you don't have water, how are they going to govern? And so then let's go to the it's the revolution, the currency drafts, we have the protests, what happens, what's happening in country at the time, What are you hearing at the time, and what are you thinking at the time? Is this How
vulnerable did the regime seem? And was there a lot of chatter, Hey, with a little bit of help, maybe from the United States or others, maybe this can happen.
So the June twelve Day war was a pivotal moment. And even people who had worked for their regime who had left and are now in the private sector and that kind of had started to make them think differently about the regime were messaging me and saying why didn't
Trump finish the job? And so, which I frankly was surprised. Naturally, when you're being bombed, you're going through a whole range of emotions, and most of those emotions are I hate these people who are bombing me because obviously, and so when when the bomb stopped, the kind of why didn't he finish the job? Why isn't he finishing the job
was really stuck with me. And that being said, now that the scale of kind of destruction we're seeing has really settled in, we keep hearing that, oh, you know, if they just let it be, the regime would have fallen on its own.
Do you believe that the problem?
I don't, mainly because they are masters at holding on
¶ Persian New Year will not be a celebration this year.
and will stop it nothing to hold on, and we are seeing that mh in the fact that they are literally shooting themselves in the foot by bombarding Dubai. That's where all their money is. And so we were living in Dubai. We never thought not that, we never thought it was always a risk. I mean, you know, frankly, ultimately, you know in the Middle East, like eventually it was going to blow up. And wait, sorry, today, Lucy, no we're here.
Yeah, my photo rank right and interrupture. I know all of our devices have to be connected. You know that don't have to be connected Apple, Thank you.
I know, so we let me just go back. No, I did not believe that they would be able to fall on their own, because they've they'll do anything to hang on to power. And we saw that in January, and we've seen that in other points in history before. You know, the massacre in January is not the first time. It's just we now live in an age where dictators can't hide. They can't hide. We watch everything very intimately on our phones on Instagram.
Right, So, what's life right now? Like, what are you hearing right now? Are people just living, you know, just staying in shelter, staying in place. Are they trying to leave if you have means to do that, and if so, how are they leaving? Take me through some of the some of the stories you're hearing.
I mean, to me, Frank, it's quite nerve wracking to have people trying to leave right now. I mean, I literally have a friend who I'm just checking up to see if they've crossed over. The people are crossing over the land borders when they can. But it's dangerous because not only is dangerous because of the bombs, but it's dangerous because there's checkpoints everywhere and the regime is extremely paranoid, and so they're just arresting people and they're not they
¶ Can the Regime Survive? What Would Change It?
kind of you know, it's a bit of a it's a tricky one because if you're if you're trying to leave, you know, you're well, why are you leaving now? And at the same time people are trying to find moles and spies. The regime is trying to find moles and spies, and so it's just it's just dangerous.
To automatically a suspect as far as they're concerned.
But even just being out in the streets of checking people's phones, like it's just a terrifying existence. And so you're just in your house and mind you remember it's Persian New Year, So Persian New Year starts on the first day of the years on Friday. Last night, there's a tradition called Charsha Ambassuri which you jump over fire and sort of leave the ailments of the year of the past and you kind of take the vibrance of the.
Fire just to timestamp this because this is going to happen after the New Year. We're going to air this literally Monday after the New Year, so we're speaking before Friday, but people will be hearing this after the New Year ahead.
Yeah, so New Year goes on for thirteen days of celebration.
And not going to be a celebration this year.
No, But interesting enough, we are seeing videos coming out of people who actually did go out and put little fires out and they were jumping out or jumping over the fires, which the security forces tried to shut down. But they do that every year because it's not an Islamic tradition. It's a pre Islamic tradition. It's from their Astrian era and it's just a Persian ronnie and tradition, and so they don't like that, so they try to killer their joy.
And they would they do that anytime.
A year, every year, every year, every year.
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¶ There was no pre-war effort to organize opposition.
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This is a sponsor. I absolutely am brace, so use that code. You're pretty convinced this regime can hang on?
Why? Oh no, I don't. I mean, like, I'm not convinced that they can, that they will hang on. So they can hang on, I'm not convinced that they will hang on because ultimately, I mean, here's the thing. There's the Trump administration says that people need to rise up and take back their country, and yes they can, but you can't bring a knife to a gunfight. And the
opposition is inside it be in prison. So I'm the executive producer of an animated short documentary, a film directed by a Hodda Soapani, an Iranian filmmaker, and this is the story of her friend Nedda, who was a woman life freedom activist and she was thrown in prison and the story is of a night where in prison was on fire and it was a strange evening because they could hear gunshots, they didn't really know what was going on,
and it was a really harrowing evening. And then suddenly two days later they were all released and they were threatened to never talk about that night. So something happened, very likely a sort of attempted uprising from inside the prison. And so the way for the regime to not survive
¶ Pahlavi and the Women's Movement
is quite frankly, for those people to be empowered. And in order for them to be empowered, they need to be busted out of prison and some sort of special operations, and they need to be armed. I mean, remember, this regime didn't come out of nowhere. There was a revolution in nineteen seventy nine, and so a counter revolution is very much a possibility.
So I spoke with John Bolton a couple weeks ago, and his big criticism of what Trump's done is the lack of attempt even attempting to work with an opposition to organize, to help organize it. Frankly, you know a lot of this. You you have to plant these seeds before the military campaign begins and look for a variety of reasons, whether it's killing U. S. A, I D neutering the US Information Agency, right, all of our soft power tools got gutted. So so that was a missing piece.
But this issue with the opposition, because it's this is you know, the other version of events you here, you know they're they're in prison or they're in hiding, right because they've been dispersed or they've been killed by by this regime. So it sounds like you think that, you know, if there was if there had been some pre war planning of okay, you know who are who are some
of the key opposition leaders. Now it's look to give you my read from this, it's clear that after the experienced I'm had with Venezuela, he decided the easy way out is Hey, the big criticism of Iraq was the debathification process. So why don't we just keep the regime in place and just find a more client leader. We did it in Venezuela. Why can't we do it here?
So they you know, that appears to be how they sort of set aside the idea of working with an opposition, of developing an opposition, of essentially freeing the opposition from from prison. Now that they're stuck in this is this the only play?
Not necessarily, I mean, the fact of the matter is there are no great love this options. So that's much like many of our American elections. Yeah, because so the issue with John Bolton and some of his colleagues is that they have a particular opposition group in mind, and that is the Mujahadin, the MAK right, and nobody in around wants the Maak. Same with the diaspora. They are pretty much a radical group and they have deep pockets
¶ President Pazeshkian as a potential transitional figure
and pay lots of people to lobby for them. And so because there are the opposition groups that exist outside of the country, like MK and the monarchists have been have had these sort of aggressive, radical, sort of fringe supporters, I can actually understand why the White House would be hesitant to put their weight behind in any of these groups.
Now it wasn't clearly any of them had any ties inside the country, right Hasn't that always been the big criticism of both the monarchists and the MKA.
Exactly, And people I speak to inside so like you know, proper Iranians, born bred, fought through on the ground, they always say, our leader needs to be somebody who has been here and suffered with us, suffered through this, bought the regime with us. Now Paul Levy's name was being shouted in the streets in the sense that it was they were saying, Java Shaw, so long live the show. So it's like a invoking of this you know, pre Islamic Revolution era and nostalgia.
What you're saying is it shouldn't be read as this guy who's claiming to be the Shaw, that somehow there's a popular support for him exactly.
And to be fair to him, he has continuously said that I see myself as a transitional figure. I want to, you know, go in and facilitate free and fair elections that you know, people insider Iran decide who they want to be their candidates, and they decide who they want
to be their leaders. And now he has made quite a few big moves in the past couple of days actually, and one of them is Shirin Ebadhi is kind of leading the Justice Council, and so he has created this sort of coalition of people who have who have real kind of experience and support on the ground, like Shirin
Ebadi does have support on the ground. And in fact, I have to say The only reason we are here today, that we are actually talking about the end of the Islamic Republic as a reality is because of the women of Iran who paved and lay paved the way and
laid the ground work. They're the only ones who have actually brought real change and have feeded the Islamic republican anyway, in twenty twenty two, when Massa Amoni was killed because of her stray hairs and mind you, you know, like in Iran as women, I mean, last time I was there was two thousand and seven. Your existence as a
¶ Former foreign minister has gone quiet.
woman in Iran is rebellion and resistance. Every single woman, I mean, as long if you're not a husband a right. And what we were then finding is that when this uprising happened, when people poured into the streets, people were like Hijabi women were walking with the women without their hit job. Because it's about choice, It's about freedom of choice. I want to wear my hit job, but if my sister doesn't want to wear her hit job, she shouldn't have to. And what ended up happening is women stopped
wearing the hit job. If they didn't feel like it, they just stopped wearing it. They said screw the law, shoot me, shoot me dead. And the Iranian regime ruled by fear. So once they lost control of the women, they lost power. They didn't have to change the law formally, the women changed it for them. And so you know, Pa Leve's made a really smart move by bringing shen
a body kind of in the fold. But in terms of any sort of regime change, it would either be Pa Leve or it would be Trump wanting to pull a Venezuela. And the only person that that could, like the only This sounds weird. I've said it before on air and people have kind of come at me in the comments, but when you think about it, he is really the only option because he's sort of so sidelined and not taken seriously inside that the sort of US
intelligence apparatus could work him to their advantage. And that's messued position. Chion.
Well, you had said this to me, almost said he
¶ Regime wins if it stays intact
sees himself this way. You think, right, it's like he could be the gorbutt and you I think he used the line with me and I quoted you to a lot of people like, Hey, this this this Iranian president sort of like is not is being treated like a figurehead right by the by the regime more so than than we've seen with previous Iranian presidents, and that he's fashion You thought he was fashioning himself almost as a as the Gorbatrough transitional figure.
And the reason why I thought that was because in that sort of last week of December, when the protests were really kickoff and the media hadn't really picked up yet because it was all the days. Frankly, he did an interview but it was like posted on the Supreme Leader's website and he effectively kind of cited with the protesters. That was what I picked up on. That was what caught my eye. And what was it last week March the weekend of March eighth, he came out and said,
you know, we shouldn't have hit our neighbors. And then the IOGC turned around and hit Dubai again and said, no, messag Position is the one who made the mistakes. So you're seeing that split. So he's kind of trying to assert his he's trying to assert himself and the ERGS is like IOGC is like, yeah, no, that's not happening.
So I mean you think that, you know, basically, you look around the room and if you, you know, for some reason the regime does fall and you need a
¶ Was the Obama Deal naive or strategic?
transitional figure, he might actually be the best candidate.
He's the only one. I wouldn't say he's the best. I think he's the only one.
Well, that makes him the best, exactly. It's a contest of one.
What I'm surprised nobody's talking about him, and I'm surprised about this, and like, where is he is? Javad Zariff, the former foreign minister, the regime's charmer in chief.
Oh, him and John Carry seemed like we're, you know, long lost buddies every time they got together. Is he dead or alive? He's we assume he's alive, right, I assume he's alive.
But he was. He was very much sidelined when the kind of hardline government came back in uh and they're ahead of that. There were lots of talks with him having presidential ambitions. Now I've I've met Zariff many times, been in touch with him many times, and he's very charming.
I've spent some time very charming.
Ya. Yes, well, he's very good at public diplomacy, right, he was really good at, you know, frankly using us to his advantage. I mean, they sold that nuclear deal. They sold it to the American public. It's a peace deal. It wasn't a piece of deal. It said lots of money to the proxies in the region that we are now seeing reaping the benefits of that deal. Like that is that's that's what's happen in here. But we haven't
¶ U.S. lost moral high ground after Trump ripped up the deal
heard from him, and I'm surprised we haven't heard from him, and I feel like we should keep an eye out for him. But the thing about Posishkion is, I mean, mind you, so, Venezuela is a difficult one to kind of compare it to because I mean, this is this is an Islamic republic that literally exists to be at war with the US. They exist as a revolutionary state to fight and be a resisting force for Western imperialism led by America, and without America as an enemy, the
Islamic Republic is no longer relevant. So if the war ends, what is the Islamic Republic? So like, if they declare peace with the US and say we're no longer at war, what is the Islamic Republic? In order for there to be real regime.
Change, you can't imagine there's no deal, So this is you know, I'm trying to you know, I'm trying to put myself as best I can in Trump's shoes and understanding how he thinks and how he works, and he's going to want he I know he wants this. I mean he's all but signaled this publicly, barely. Like I joked that he's he'd be fun to play poker with because he tells you everything you need and he literally turns his cards the other way so you can see them.
He wants to get out of this. He's desperate to get out of this. But it doesn't sound like there's a deal to be cut that can be trusted, right, because if the regime cuts a deal, what's that deal look like? Any deal that keeps the regime in place, that's a win for the regime and a loss for the United States, is it not?
I mean, you the key word here is trust. How can we trust Obama made a deal in good faith
¶ Western and European media is so anti-Trump that they almost want him to fail
with the Islamic Republic. I remember after this deal was reached, I was speaking to an official who was part of the negotiations, and he said, don't you think this will lead to reforms? Like they genuinely believed that this would lead to reforms. They genuinely believed they would release all of this sanctions money and it would go to the people and you know that they would make life better,
and you know, I find it sweet. But it did though, to be fair, it did actually it did need to reform because it exposed the corruption of the government because they were like, hey, don't we can't blame the Americans anymore because they sent us all this money.
Where is it now? I remember talking with somebody inside Obama world who was a bit more of a realist about Iran wasn't as and and was trying to make the case that Obama wasn't a real He didn't. This wasn't a that it wasn't blind faith here. But the argument that was made to me of like, look, you know why we have to do this deal in order to then have a rationale if we have to go militarily, we have to prove demo diplomacy failed. We have to
prove that they couldn't keep their work. We have to prove, but we have to you have to give it, you know. That was the explanation, Like why are you doing this bad deal? I'm sorry. I think for a lot of us thought it was like, huh, okay, this this, this seems like they're getting a lot for very you know,
for very little reforms in return. And that was the That was the spin I got, which I would count as realistic spin because it was from somebody who themselves was a skeptic of the deal and yet was charged with having to with havingue but believed that larger idea that hey, you have to you have to try this. You can't say you can't go to war and say we didn't because you almost have to prove that diplomacy isn't going to work. And yet here we are.
So you know how Trump said that he spoke to a former president who said he wished he'd done it, who wish he wish he'd been able.
Well, you know, the joke is that, remember he's technically a former president. Yes, he may exactly, he may have just been having a conversation in the mirror with himself forty five, you know, the forty fifth president was speaking
¶ The Iranian regime is winning the information war.
with the forty seventh president. Issue.
True, that's true. But Obama has said he wishes he'd done something when the two thousand and nine Green movement uprising happened, and many believe that he didn't do anything because he had an eye on a nuclear deal. So that was two thousand and nine. By twenty thirteen, the kind of secret talks were revealed that James Sullivan was doing, and then by twenty fifteen we had a nuclear deal.
Look, I you know, I think you know that's you know, when you play these what if games, and I love to do them, it's sort of alternative histories and and you know, what if we had done this, and what if we had done that. I generally think though that the mindset of you better try to plum, you better exhaust diplomacy in the United States, I've always argued has to get caught, always exhausting diplomacy. When you were the biggest fish in the sea, or you're the big you
know that, then you should you do it. You actually have the luxury to exhaust the diplomacy, not every entity. Does you know, they don't happen. Do you think security?
Do you think to be fair to Trump? Then that he I mean, he's basically stuck with what was eventually going to have to happen. Anyway.
Oh, I have been I have been a believer. I used to I was half joking. I'm like, you know, I said, you know, I Kamala Harris gets elected president, you know her first crisis is going to be when she has to bomb around And I say, has to, meaning like this, There's going to be a moment where Israel's going to test and it's like, well, Jesus, you
can't have Israel do it by themselves. And and it was like, I think I always viewed it as inevitable that the next president was going to either voluntarily do this or get dragged into doing this. But either way, something was amiss. I think when we look back at mistakes Trump made, ripping up the nuclear deal was a mistake. Proving that they were failing at the nuclear deal would have been a better way to go about this, right, Like how they how they ended the deal. I'm not
saying the deal was a good deal. How they how the deal was ended though, got lost America and the Westson high Ground.
The problem now, though, is that there listen, there's a lot of room for improvement with President Trump, which is putting in politely. That being said, I worry, particularly from the perspective of the Iranian people, that the Western media, European media especially, it almost doesn't want Trump to succeed
¶ Joe Kent's resignation is being framed as a "wartime defection"
in this at the expense of the Iranian people, because there.
Is some there's some blind anti Trump. I know exactly what you mean. There's some of this blind that's almost like there's and you do you do wonder It's like, you know, I don't want Trump to fail. I think he's made some fatal mistakes, and I you know, our job is to point out the mistakes he's made. But
I I don't think you're wrong. There's this they're they're almost sometimes some of the coverage, and You're right, particularly the European side comes across it like, you know, we got to prove you know, I hope he fails so we can prove we were right.
Well in the as you know, warfare has many facets. Information warfare is a major part of that, and the Iranian regime is winning. I mean, I feel like I'm the one woman kind of fact mission back checking machine at this point where I'm having sources inside around message me and say I can't believe Trump said that Iranians
are genetically inferior. I'm like, no, this is the clip that has been kind of cut off strategically at the end to make it sound like not that talking about people being genetically inferior is okay, But do you see what I mean? They sort of like take the they take the most problematic parts of things that Trump says, and they work it to their advantage. And that is what's happening inside Iran right now, or the redrawing of
the maps. And you know, when he's not addressing the Iranian people directly, I mean I've been trying to get an interview with him. I'm saying, you need to speak to somebody who is Iranian American, who they trust, the Iranian people trust. I mean, half the battle is winning the hearts and minds of the Iranian people inside. Do you want them to almost be fighting with you, alongside you?
And at first, I mean I had somebody message me when the bomb started, saying, when this is over, they're going to be erecting a statue of Trump in Azadi
¶ Air and naval power alone can't guarantee safe passage in Strait of Hormuz
Square in Tehran. And now that sentiment is starting to shift because he's saying things like, oh, the map of Iran is not going to look the same after this, and you know, stuff like that, and that's really not going down will.
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¶ Gulf states were supportive when they thought it would work, now they're distancing
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how you know, it does sound like he was. I mean, look, General Kine went on a for him, was a pr blitz about a week before the bombing started, just making sure everybody understood how hard this was going to be and that this wasn't going to be Venezuela and that this wasn't going to And it sounds like, I mean,
I can just picture Trump. It looks like the story being that he was warned about the straight of horn moves and he's now kind of admitting sure, I was warned, but you know, he just assumed the regime would fold. And I don't know whether that was people telling him what he wanted to hear in order to get him to the yes on launching the strikes, or whether we had intelligence to indicate that this was possible. What's your sense on this?
I mean, so, from what I know about people who have negotiated difficult things like North Korea, on Trump's behalf, he is somebody who makes decisions intuitively, and we're hearing that kind of backed up by Caroline Levitt and himself Trump himself. Bye. They continuously say, you know, Trump had a feeling or I'll do this when I feel it, and so or even.
Like Tulsa Gabbard's statement, you know, he determined Aron was an imminent threat.
Although okay, So I got asked about Joe Kent on air yesterday, and so I'm a bit confused about him because previous statements have said Iran is a threat, Iran is an eminent threat, Iran needs to be neutralized. Mind you, you know his wife was killed in Iraq. I believe it was Iraq, his first wife. And now once this
¶ China's Role China brokered the Iran-Saudi détente and may play a diplomatic role
resignation came out and you know, the media is calling it a wartime to defection, and that's kind of how it's being spun. People are saying that he's being influenced by his new wife, who works for a kind of
outlet that's sympathetic to the Iranians. And so I think this all plays into the information warfare that the Iranians like that just that just a hand of them like yet another win, because it's like, oh, look, the Americans don't have it together and we're starting to see wartime defections, and the Iranians are baiting Trump into putting boots on the ground, which is an absolutely horrible idea and should absolutely not happen. Special forces operations to bust out the
prisoners from Eavin. Sure, boots on the ground, no way, all right, but how do.
You secure the straight if how do you secure the straight without boots on the shoreline?
I knew this. I wouldn't be here right now to right.
No, I mean, I think this is where I think he got himself into it. What I've been calling a you know, quicksand or a Chinese finger trap, because you know, we're in this situation now the United States is why we're here and well, ultimately it's the Iranian regime is why we're here. But let's in the current moment. Why is the Straight not navigable at the moment, It's because of actions by the United States. So in theory it is our responsibility. And I don't know how you can't
do it with their power and naval power alone. You know, you cannot guarantee one hundred percent safety with without that. So it is one of those where tactically you're going to have to have some boots on the ground.
Now do you mean get the Marines on harg Island?
Well, I think this is where we're you know, this is you know, this is the mission creep fear right, But this is how these things happen. Nobody wants to put boots on the ground. You do it because you think there's no other choice. And I think now, so if you think there's no other choice to open the Straight, you say, that's a disaster. If it's to keep the Straight open, you know, what do the Golf States want?
¶ Social media broke the regime's control over the Iranian public
What do the you know, do they? And this is where there's some confusion. In fact, I just I'm rambling here. So let me actually put a pin in this and let's move to the Golf States. Did MBS push Trump to do this or not? And I say that because there was this high profile Washington Post story that indicated that was the case. Now you've got whether it's a billionaire and cutter or the UAE making it pretty clear that they did and this is not what they were
looking for. Do we think the Gulf State sent a mixed message to the administration. This is a case where yeah, they were all for it if they thought they could get it done, and now that this isn't working, they're like, well, geez, I don't want my fingerprints on this. Now, what's what's your understanding of? You know? Essentially, what did the UAE in Saudis want here? And were they supportive until they weren't or were they always skeptical?
So the story that isn't being talked about is that in the lead up to this, the Saudis and the Amorants were beefing, right.
They still they were. They're in a proxy war in Africa right now, aren't they.
Their relationship with starting to deteriorate, much like in the twenty seventeen GCC blockade era when Katar was in the doghouse, right, And so now with the UA getting hit so hard, Saudi Arabia is not getting hit as hard as the UA. It's not. And my source is my Marati sources have noted that to me and have said, you know, I don't understand why Saudi is not getting hit like we
are when they were for the strikes. So there is this, at least from the Imarati side, there is this sense that the Saudis were pro the strikes.
What are the the way the Iranians are behaving that's not the case. Or are the Iranians afraid to engage Saudi?
Remember that China brokeer the deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, So I think that's playing a part. I think that's playing apart. I think China, we haven't really I mean, so Trump did end up postponing the summit, didn't he
¶ The fabric of the regime is now visibly falling apart.
his trip to China?
Right?
So I think I think. I think in the next week or so, we'll probably see. I would expect we would see. I think China's role might become a bit more clear.
What do you expect them to play a sort of a diplomatic role with with trying to bring the Iranians, you know, sort of almost being a proxy for the Iranians to bring them to the table to do a ceasefire. Is that what you expect?
I mean, I think that that. I wouldn't be surprised if they try that. You know, they they brokeered the the kind of detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, So I wouldn't be surprised if China tries that now. At the same time, like again, the regime can't stay in place. It just it can't stay unless it can't stay in place unless it's a complete you know, lay down our arms. We are at peace, like no more death to America, like we're friends.
But as you just said, like they don't have an identity without fighting the West. I mean, and this, I think this has always been the hardest thing to explain to some some of some parts of the American audience, where look this regime, you know, and you know they don't like to hear these we're in a battle for this, you know, for this is a cultural war as much as anything else. But it kind of is right, and it's a we we we we view everybody through the
prism of how we see the world. And our pluralism and and our idealism, and we we can't fathom that that there are literally almost a suicidal theocracies out there, you know, that don't And I think Trump has a hard time processing this. I think Trump assumes everybody's motivated by the thing He's motivated for money, fame, and power, and that ultimately.
Americans in general, I think this is an American phenomenon. I think we have difficulty wrapping our head around the fact that people there are people out there who hate us just because we are like they exist.
¶ Israel wanted to permanently eliminate Iran's proxy war capability post-October 7.
Because right we think we're decadent, you know, and that we we are too materialistic, and this is why you know, civilization is on the downslope, et cetera. Right like, and look, whether there's a portion of that, there's actually a portion of that mindset that fuels the Mega movement ironically domestically.
And so that's what actually makes me sometimes frustrated with Trump that he doesn't understand the Iranian theocracy when like, dude, you're part of your your your some of your followers view you as the head of a future theocracy, even if you don't actually believe the own your own messages that you're selling.
But this is why I find it so ironic when you see people, you know, protesting or mourning the death of the Supreme Leader. I mean, the Supreme Leader. His whole ethos was death to America, which means death to Americans. But of course it's so hypocritical because you know, these these people preach death to America and try to ban everything American and Western, and yet they partake in it themselves.
I mean, one time I was texting with a source who is close to this now diseased Supreme Leader, I mean, like he's in the inner Circle, and I mentioned I referenced something he had said, and he said, I didn't say that, and I'm like, yes, you did. And it comes back and he says, oh, I must have been drunk.
Oh really, I didn't know we were drinking.
Yeah, oh yeah, no, there's I mean, that's the thing. This is, like all of the things that are decadent and sinful about America and Western culture they taken themselves. Like it's just complete hypocrisy, right, And you know we see in these sort of op hits about like Ali Lara Johnny saying, well, you know, he he hated Western ideals, but at the same time was fascinated by them. And so, you know, one of the problems for the regime was
social media. Like social media was kind of the beginning of the end for them because they couldn't control the
¶ A future Iran and Israel could be close allies and co-leaders of a thriving Middle East
narrative anymore. So they could go in and raid people's houses and take their satellites and throw them in jail, but they couldn't. They couldn't monitor all of the different social media channels, like they just couldn't. People were too clever.
They have VPNs, you know, even though they did sort of think they were being clever and create these VPNs that were actually IERGC links, So like people were downloading VPNs thinking they're getting around the Internet blackouts and then actually downloading ERGC link to VPNs and that's how they
catching them. So it's like really diabolical, but still, you know, they they couldn't and so like that, the TikTok dances and all of the stuff that attracted the Gen Z generation, they lost control of that generation, and the kind of forcing of Islam on the younger population just completely backfired.
Well trying to figure out you know, you know, all regimes come to an end quickly, but it takes a long time for them, for the quick for the quick ending. You know, it's like, you know, it's like the joke about bankruptcy. First it happened slowly, then it happens quickly, right.
And that's but it's not just like unraveling. Right.
It feels like it's unraveling, but it could still be years, not months, not weeks, right, or do you really think we're no longer counting in years. We're now finally counting in months.
When you pull a thread, it kind of takes a while for it to start to realize unravel But then when it unravels, it unravels quickly, right, like when it reaches a point where then just disintegrates. And twenty twenty two, So, like I said, women had been quietly kind of pulling at the very thread of the fabric of the regime, which was hijab. It's a pillar of the Islamic Republic.
Hijab was a pillar of the Islamic Republic because it was its most obvious, in your face way of exercising control and ruling with fear and the politics of sadness by like stripping color of our clothes. I mean, there's like there's so much psychological processing and manipulation that goes into this. But once that started to unravel quickly after a woman life freedom, that's how we reached this point. And so like the fabric, the literal fabric of the
regime is now falling apart. It's just falling apart.
We've been speaking for almost an hour and we've barely mentioned Israel. Yeah, yeah, in this country. It is the driving narrative of this war. Is Israel's role, Israel's you know,
¶ Geopolitical forgiveness has to be part of any post-regime transition
just you know, and for Israel, we know, look, they just the decision was made after October seventh, you know, no more uneasy piece right that they wanted to try to, you know, permanently eliminate Iran's ability to wage proxy war against the Israelis right, whether that was destroying Hasbelad, destroying a mass and doing what they're doing. I understand the mindset. We'll see if I think, we'll see if this is
a workable strategy for them. But what is that long term impact and what if what is Iran's relations what is a future Iran's relationship, But what are Iranians relationship with Israel if indeed the regime falls and you know, history is going to I think correctly noteed you know as much the Israelis pushed the United States to do this.
So early September twenty twenty two, a few weeks before Massa Amoni was killed in the Woman Life Freedom Uprising kicked off, I was in Tel Aviv and I was reporting for a documentary that I was hosting on the BBC. Got out of the shadows about the covert war between Iran and Israel, and before I had just moved to Dubai and I took the flight, the direct flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv. This was a historic flight because the Abraham Accords had just been reached, and you know,
it was a very big deal. And I think that again to Trump's credit, he doesn't get credit, He does not get enough credit for what a big deal the Abraham Accords was. You know, it did also happen in twenty twenty it was during COVID, like quite a lot overshadowed it. But again I think like because of this animosity towards Trump, which is often very valid, there's a hesitance to give credit.
Record blind it can blind, right. Trump Trump arrangement syndrome is a thing like there is.
Some truth to it is a thing and so and so. But before I took that fight game, source of my kind of insider source of mine called me and he said worried about called it a miscalculation. He said he was really worried about a miscalculation in the Iran Israel covert conflict, and that he worried it was going to spill out into the open and be a full on
¶ Conflict will back into intelligence and covert operations after the kinetic phase.
kinetic war, like bombs dropping out in the open. And I and you know, like the thing is like it kind of felt that way, like it felt like I was in a bit of a tinder box being in Dubai, like there was tension. I didn't expect it to be woman life freedom truly, and I actually think woman life freedom maybe delayed what inevitably ended up being the twelve
Day war last year. We kind of distracted. But when I went to Tel Aviv, I sat down with Amir Pardo, former MASADE chief, and got basically what was the closest to an admission on the targeted assassinations program. He was the architect of the targeted assassinations program in Iran, where
you know, they started to just assassinate nuclear scientists. The Israeli started to assassinate nuclear scientists in around and when I was there, I was posting on Instagram, which actually got me kind of blacklisted among the influencer circles in Dubai. So even though the UAE had just signed a deal with Israel and you know, you know peace, we're going
¶ Sources inside Iran believe the new Supreme Leader may already be dead y.
to be friends and we're going to do deals, people in Dubai we're not happy about it. And largely the Arab population is not happy about their governments doing business with Israel and recognizing Israel. They are not democracies.
Yes, the leaders are want to do business with Israel more than the people do right, yes.
Very much, and to be with their leaders no, complete opposite. I had people in Iran messaging me on Instagram, dming me on Instagram and saying, please tell the Israelis that we love them. These are not people that I know. I don't know them. These are random people who follow me on Instagram and saw I was in Israel and DMed me and we're like sending me messages in Farsi and voice notes and saying, please tell the Israelis that we have no problem with them, We love them like
we want our countries to be friends. You know, our governments are keeping us apart. So I'm saying that because if and when this regime is finished, you know, whatever that whatever the regime turns into, If and when an Islamic republic that lives and breathes death to America, death to Israel no longer exists, yeah, there will be a friendship that goes back to what used to exist.
It'll be and it could be you know what you're describing. It's sort of like, you know, if I told Americans in nineteen forty, if I went back into a time machine, I said, you know, two of America's closest allies for a good forty years in the future is going to be Germany and Japan. Well, Americans would have been, what
are you talking about? And this could be. I that's my assumption to that fifty years from now, the relationship between Israel and Iran is going to be this incredibly important and tight relationship, and in many ways, instead of being competitors, they might be the co leaders of a thriving Middle East. And it's the Gulf states that are left out in the sidelines.
But I think that's why the golf leaders recognize that I think like NBS smart. Whatever people might want to say about him, you know, and his team rights record, he is smart. But also like if these countries were democracies, they would have problems with you know, controlling the population. And there by.
The way we have a taste of it. Just look at Turkey or the brief period we had Egypt as a democracy who got elected.
Yeah, so it's like it's a it's an uncomfortable part of the conversation, right, but but it has to be said. And I was actually, it's funny you mentioned Japan because I was just in Japan. I hit my I was celebrating my end of my hundred country challenge and and I was thinking, thank you, and I was just thinking about that. I said, you know, like we don't talk
about the concept of forgiveness in geopolitics. And that's why I I, you know, the diaspora is very opinionated, and so when I have men like, Okay, what do the options look like for how Iran becomes just a republic and not an Islamic republic? Does that mean there are kind of people who were in the regime who kind
of come to the other side. You know, there has to be an element of forgiveness because you know, there was a there was a massacre that everybody who was in the regime is accounted for, right, is accountable for rather But at the same time, you know, like you said,
¶ Where to find Suzanne's work
we're friends with Germany and we're friends Japan. We dropped a nuclear bomb on Japan, right, you know, they attacked us, very good friends with them.
Probably a lot to learn from the Japanese about forgiveness. It could be the ones really bitter to this day.
And it's not that long ago. I mean, it's still in our it's still in our lifetime and.
Like we're alive today exactly exactly. Well, there's no good place to end this conversation because we're in the middle of something. But you know, meaning you know, I know we're not. We're not in any resolution mode here, so it's hard to so I know we're going to be doing it to be continued because I think we I'd love to, you know, I think you know, do you look at this war in two week chunks, in one week chunks and three week chunks, what's your sense of
of how you view this. I assume we're running out of targets that are reasonable at this point.
So what I've noticed now in the kind of it's moving into the intelligence it's maybe kind of it started on the intelligence front, right, it started as an intelligence war, then it became started as a covert war, that's what my whole documentary is about, and then it moved into a kinetic war. And now I'm starting to see that it's moving sort of back into the cloak and diagres bycraft side of things that's going to be necessary to
hip the scale. And I'm saying that because we're starting to see a reporting, you know, the Wall Street Journal how to report of how Mossad is kind of calling individual I er GC members and basically telling them that they're a target. And there's one a quote from one it's a recording, I guess, and what one has said, you know, I'm not your enemy, like I'm a walking dead man. On I'm a walking dead man as it is.
And I think it's important for your audience to remember who are the people inside, Like who is the IRGC? What is the IRGC. So you have every young man has to do their military service much like Israel, and you have to do a couple of years and you have either the artesh the army or the rier GC. You don't get to choose, you get you get put into either there or in the army.
So like you could be a gay, tatted up like rock and roll loving guy and end up having to fight with ye your GC, like you could not believe in any of their Islamic And.
What you're saying is you think there isn't an opportunity here where where there's dissension in the ranks.
The problem here is again goes back to information. Hearing about the dissension of the ranks is going to be the bigger problem. So I was told that I was told by one of my sources in Iran that, I mean a civilian source that basically everybody thinks much Double is dead. Much Double comedy is the new so called Supremely.
There's no proof of life. I mean, I'm sorry, so do I you know everyone? Yeah, I don't think he ever was alive or maybe he was on life support.
The statement that he put out, like when you read when you read it, it's very clearly more than one person wrote this statement. There's lots of different there's lots of input. Right now, it turns out he's dead. That is a huge blow for the IRGC because they couldn't protect him. You know, Yes, Ali Laira Johnny is a big is a big one that they've lost. But they couldn't protect mush Tabba. They couldn't protect the Supreme Leader.
And the thing is, you know, mush Tabba was always kind of rumored to be the favorite to take over and be the next Supreme Leader. Killing his dad basically good that the eventual, inevitable process, right, And so I think like that's why the PR part of this is so important and the White House really needs to up its game on it. They are not doing a good job. Like it's Persian New Year. What's their plan?
Yeah, it's a plan.
You know, Like this is a prime opportunity. You know, if if I was White House communications director, I'd be like, all right, we've got thirteen days, you know, like we have like a blast, we have a like who are we talking to, who are we reaching? What's our messaging? You know, like now is the time.
There's an opportunity here yet.
So that's why, I mean, the intelligence side of this is really important for the next two weeks.
Knowing my listeners is on they're going to want more from you before I get you on here again. Where can they find your work?
Right? Yes, so we are on substack, Helmet to Heels dot com. And then my podcast is Global Powershifts on YouTube. I co host that with Jim Stenman, a former CNN correspondent, and then I'm on Instagram on Poor World and Helmet to Heels also on Twitter x poor World.
Well, and you're a thriving and de pendant journalists, and thank goodness for it. It's not easy being independent. You've got to especially what you're trying to do, travel the world, security, all sorts of stuff. So encourage my my listeners and my wife and viewers to support the work that you're doing.
Thank you, thank you.
This is exactly how I expected what I expected from this conversation, which which was to learn a lot and understand that make a pact. Yes, ma'am, do.
An episode having tea in Tehran.
I'd love to do that. I'd love to do that. I'd love to get to Trent. All right, Well, we're going to get there, all right, Susan. This was great, Thanks for the time.
Thank you.