¶ Leigh Ann Caldwell joins the Chuck ToddCast
It's sponsorship time. But you know what, it's really great when you get a sponsor that you already use. And guess what. Quint's is something that in the Todd household we already go to. Why do we go to Quint's Because it's a place you go where you can get some really nice clothes without the really expensive prices. And one of the things I've been going through is I've transitioned from being mister cot and ty guy to wanting a little more casual but to look nice doing it.
Is I've become mister quarter zip guy. Well guess what. Guess who's got amazing amounts of quarter zips? It is Quints. I have gotten quite a few already from there. The stuff's really nice. They have Mongolian cashmere sweaters for fifty dollars. I just know, hey, cashmere, that's pretty good. You don't normally get that for fifty bucks or less. Italian wool coats that look and feel like designer the stuff. I'll be honest, right, you look at it online, you think, okay,
is this really as nice as it looks? Well, when I got it, I was like, oh, this is real quality. So yeah, I'm going to end up making sure I take it to my dry cleaner so I don't screw it up when I clean it. But I've been quite impressed. In Hey, it's holiday season. It is impossible to shop for us middle aged men. I know this well. Tell your kids, tell your spouses, tell your partners. Try Quints.
Or if you're trying to figure out what to get your adult child, what to get your mom or dad, I'm telling you you're gonna find something that is going to be comfortable for them on Quints. So get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with quints. Don't wait. Go to quins dot com slash chuck for free shipping
¶ Covering politics as independent media vs legacy media
on your order and three hundred and sixty five day returns now available in Canada as well. That's qui nce dot com, slash chuck, free shipping and three hundred and sixty five day returns quints dot com slash chuck. Use that code. Well, joining me now for a little end of the year. Where the hell is Congress headed? Next
is a good conversation with my friendly and Caldwell. She's the chief should the correspondent for Puck, which is more and more becoming a must read these days, Puck one of my Yeah, it's one of my look in this day and age of independent you know, where we have a lot of people questioning corporate owned media, shareholder controlled media, all of that nonsense. Independent owned news operations, I think are should be having a moment, and let's just say
Puck's having a moment. How do you enjoy it?
I love it. It's great. Actually, it's a good place to work. I get to cover what I want to cover. No, yeah, it's it's great. It's I don't really.
Have You've been at the Washington Post at NBC. Right, It doesn't get more mainstream media than that. You and I got to know each other at NBC.
Yeah, I hired me at NBC.
I hired Well. I wasn't going to be so presumptuous, but I'd like to think I had good judgment here. What how do you answer the question of, hey, what's the difference between LeAnn called Well the reporter for Puck and Leanne called Well, the reporter for NBC and the Washington Post. How do you answer that question?
Oh, my gosh, that's that No one's actually asked me that question in that way. I would say, there is not actually a lot of difference in my and how I approach my job specifically. I am still covering the hill, still covering politics. I think what is different is that I have changed my focus completely away from the incremental and I now think more deeply about the impacts of
what's happening on the hill. I think about the big picture a lot more, and I really get to lean into kind of the conversations that are happening behind the scenes instead of what everyone is just saying publicly. You know. So I think that rather than my approach, it's more kind of the angle that's different.
Yeah, I sort of answer it very similarly. I'll say, you know, look it, I don't have to worry about the busy work of Washington reporting. And what do we mean by the busy work of art? Look what you just described as incrementalism, like what time is this brief and going to be? Is this going to happen the next tomorrow or the next day? All important information that major news organizations it might be planning planning specials around it, or planning coverage or trying to These are all important
¶ There was little ability for original thought doing network news
things that you know, people didn't really understand that part of our job is when I was Chief White House correspondent, I felt it a lot more there than I did obviously meet the press. But which was and you certainly understood, which was the amount of logistics an operational information we had to spend our time gathering in order to help and again all necessary for the larger organization. And I'm not you know, oh the president, you know, take the
presidential address. Well, suddenly I would have been working with our executives. What what are they looking for? What time? How much are they asking for? And it's like suddenly half my day is being chewed up by this logistical thing.
It's like it's like at home spending half your day on hold with the cable company while you're trying to figure out how you're getting, you know, how they're going to come over to fix something, to not have to you know that was there are times that that would be thirty percent of your job.
Right absolutely, yes, yes, because you have to as you
¶ Legacy media gets stuck in groupthink
well know, there's this production element that you have to be that the network needs and so you know, and my job as a reporter, of.
Course, you and I are a questioning do they need it? Like you know, the amount I mean, I think that's the thing, Like, I mean, I didn't mean to cut you off there, but it's like, yes, if you think through if you think about the network through the prism, the older prism, then yeah, it makes sense. When you think about how consumers get information, it made no sense.
Yeah, no, I mean that's that's an absolutely great point. And also it's like, you know, from a reporter standpoint, it was a lot of making sure you had what someone else had, and so there was very little ability to do original thought because it was always making sure that everyone, every network or every outlet was in the same place jaistically with the content.
And oh, well, that's an important it's an important point. Let me put a put a signpost on that wall. Street journal is reporting that there's going to be a vote tomorrow on the ACA subsidies. Hey, Leanne, can you go check that out? Is it tomorrow? Right?
Like you're like, can you confirm that?
Yes? And it's like yeah, and maybe in the maybe confirming that information might get you another piece of information that can't help your reporting. Don't get me wrong, Like doing that was a totally useless exercise, you know, because you were then suddenly all right, well maybe you know what else can you tell me? And then suddenly you're like, Okay,
¶ People blame the Gingrich years for our current political dysfunction
now I learned a little bit something else. But if people wonder why the mainstream media sounds like group think, well, it's because all of our bosses are constantly asking us could we're constantly asking us to confirm everybody else's stories and that it would be kind of a circle jerk sometime.
Totally. That's exactly what I tell people, you know, when you they ask a different version of the question you asked me. No one at PUCK has ever said, can you can affirm this? Like not once it's been It's amazing. I have spent zero time confirming other people's reporting.
Yeah, let's talk about Congress this year. There are days you think, oh my god, the sky is falling, and there are days you're like, yeah, this is just another day in the life at Congress, and you know this is is this your fifth year covering Capitol Hill?
No? Oh my godcha longer than that.
Everything, the time space time continuum is just done for me.
With Covidney right the day after Trump got elected first term. So what's that?
So it's almost about nine years, So you're nine years, nine years you've been covering the Hill nine years. I could sit here and say you've covered a more dysfunctional version of Congress than when I started covering Capitol Hill in nineteen ninety three and ninety four going through there. And yet there were veterans back then who'd say, oh, you have no idea, you're covering a very this Gingrich era,
¶ Covering Trump's 1st term was asking for reactions to Trump
so dysfunctional. Da da da da da. Right, like every there's always I'm mindful of the following fact everybody thinks they're time covering Congress specifically is the there's never been a time like this, And there's truth to that, right that we are sort of increasingly like out each Congress outdues the previous one in its dysfunctionality. So you've done it nine years, So you walk me through your nine years of dysfunctionality.
¶ Congress has handed away their authority in Trump 2.0
Well, let me just say I'm gonna expand that a little bit. A lot of people do blame the Gingrich years for like going off the cliff. So I guess you were there at the beginning of what people now maybe it's real.
You know what the Gingrit's apologists would say, It started with Jim Wright, and it started with the Democrats in eighty six when they insisted on seating that's called it's this fight called the Bloody Eighth, Indiana's eighth congressional district. A recount indicated that the Republican won. The Democrats didn't accept the recount, and they literally seeded the Democrat even though the recount had So the point is is that it's just like the judiciary wars, Terry Read's fault, It's
¶ The personal animus between the two parties is very real
bitch mcconno's fault. Guess what, guys, you all, you all broke it and you all have to pay the pottery barn Bill.
Yeah, totally. So the past nine years during Trump, I guess, you know, Trump and then Biden and then Trump again. Now it's just you know, first four years of Trump, the story was what everyone how every Republican secretly hates Trump. Like the story would always be, can you react to whatever Trump tweeted it was Twitter back then, or whatever he said, and people would start to say, oh, I didn't see it, you know, try to dodge, but it was there was so little respect for the man, and
that was always the story. Now and this Trump era, I almost feel like what people say about Trump behind the scenes doesn't even matter because they are doing whatever he wants publicly, handing away you know, so much of their congressional authority to Trump. Even if they don't like it and they complain about it, they're doing it and
¶ Young staffers had their politics formed by social media
that's what matters, you know. The the first Trump term, of course, we went through an impeachment, all the investigations January sixth, which I was there for. Uh, and it that, you know, all of that has changed Congress so much, the lack of trust between the part parties. People just really don't like each other, you know, of.
Course, and it's no longer theater. It used to be theater. Yeah, behind the scenes. Boy, let me tell you Tom Cole he gets along with everybody, and he may still get along with everybody right by the way, for what he's probably right. Everybody loves Tom Cole. You know, he's too he doesn't know how to be mean, which you know, but for the most part, you would hear it seemed more theater than not. And now it seems real, like this stuff's personal.
It feels well, yeah, it's it's very personal. And it's not just for the member level too. The staffs don't really like each other like and that's like another layer where the staffs. You know, everyone kind of got the joke. And now, for the most part, there are very few people who hang Republicans who hang out with Democrats and vice versa. Yes, there are some.
Is that just is that a generational phenomenon. I've gotten a sense that the younger congressional staffers are a bit more are well, I mean they were, they were They've learned politics in the social media era, which is a very which is to me, a very awful way to have learned politics. But they they sort of believe that their counterparts are what the social media caricature has created of them.
Yeah. Yeah, I think that. I think that there is
¶ Mike Johnson will go down as one of the weakest speakers ever
a lot of generational component to that. The people who have been there for a very long time, you know.
Still they know how to still like work with the other side, or at least at least they know somebody they can work with on the other side.
Yeah, yeah, totally. And there's like the appropriators, you know, they have to work with each other, et cetera. But it's just, you know, January sixth did a lot a lot of damage, and it took years for it to kind of get back to a base level. And then now It's just I think that the Congress story is, you know, how diminished of an institution will Congress be
by the end of Trump's first term. You know, I always question what if Mike Johnson's legacy is, if that's what it's going to be, if he's just going to kind of hand over the keys to the capital to the president.
¶ Johnson has willingly made congress irrelevant
Well, it was interesting. We were you know, we've gone through these fits and starts of strong speakers and week speakers. It was a strong speaker, Tom Foley was a week Jim Wright. Tom Jim Wright wanted to be a strong speaker. It sort of got him out, It sort of cost him the speakership. Fully was a week speaker. Gingrich was a strong speaker. Then we had hasted extraordinarily weak speaker.
Very much more in the lines of the Mike Johnson right, Uh, Pelosi brought strength again to the speakership, and then it sort of was trying to encourage Bayner wanted to be a strong speaker. He got thrown out for being one. Right, Ryan wanted to try to you know, he was trying to it sort of re establish the speakership. It all, you know, it sort of arguably why he left slash
cost him his role. So I agree with you on Johnson, but I don't know whether I mean, I think he's going to go down as probably an even weaker speaker than Dennis Aster. I think it's just saying something.
Yeah, I think so. I mean, especially how this Congress, this session of this Congress ended up.
We're not and we're not done, right, Like, I mean this Congress, you know, this.
Year of this Sea Congress. Yeah, right, and the last week was tumultuous.
Well, and it's been tumultuous arguably for the last two months. Right. There was that day where you had a party on party crime, right, you had the Democrats trying to censure another Democrat. Republicans were met. I mean, it seemed I was talking with Mike Turner the day after it happened, and he goes, he said, the only thing missing were the canes, you know, where they were just going to start like actually physically assaulting each other. But that, I mean,
¶ Are we underplaying the chances of a January shutdown?
the damage Johnson did to the Institution by keeping them away during the government shutdown, I mean that turned out to be just a massive miscalculation by his part, wasn't it.
Yeah, he literally wrote the Institution irrelevance and it I was shocked at the number of Republicans who were okay with it, but it proved it. Yeah, it proved to be a massive mistake. They are going to come out as being extremely unproductive. They could have been working on
other things. They're way behind, and it just broke a lot of trust within the party because one thing, a couple of Republicans actually during that process had said to me that one of the things that happens, especially like during a government shutdown, and you know, the leaders aren't talking to each other and everything stalemated, but then it's like, you know, all the rank and files they're bored, and so they start talking to each other and they're like,
we're over this. Let's not that their bipartisan plans ever become reality, but they're talking. Starts to put pressure on leaders,
¶ With premiums set to rise, why couldn't Dems corner the GOP?
and he completely eliminated that aspect of what legislators want to feel is like they are having some sort of input or say or impact, and he negated that entire underspoken element of what the shutdown and what just kind of like the day to day job is.
So, why do I think we are underplaying the possibility of another shutdown? In January. Why do we assume there won't be one. It feels like to me all the ingredients are there for another shutdown in January.
I think that based on my discussions with Democrats so far,
¶ Dems know healthcare is good politics for them
very preliminary, but they feel like they came out so much on top of the last shutdown. They completely changed the narrative to healthcare, obviously an issue that they are very comfortable with, and Republicans, as we see, cannot just a mess, yeah, not deal with and so the risk of another shutdown the base might get mad, but the risk of another shutdown could absolutely like eliminate all of this goodwill with voters that they have built up by fighting quote fighting for health care.
Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from personal experience. I was sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't have any money. He didn't leave us in the best shape. My mother, single mother, now widow, myself
¶ Trump is digging in rather than caving on ACA subsidies
sixteen trying to figure out how am I going to pay for college and lo and behold, my dad had one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot, but it was important at the time, and it's why I was able to go to college. Little did he know how important that would be in that moment. Well, guess what. That's why I am here to tell you about Etho's life. They can provide you with peace of mind knowing your family is protected even if the worst
comes to pass. Ethos is an online platform that makes getting life insurance fast and easy, all designed to protect your family's future in minutes, not months. There's no complicated process, and it's one hundred percent online. There's no medical exam require you just answer a few health questions online. You can get a quote in as little as ten minutes, and you can get same day coverage without ever leaving
your home. You can get up to three million dollars in coverage, and some policies start as low as two dollars a day that would be billed monthly. As of March twenty twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number one no medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free quot at ethos dot com slash chuck. So again, that's
Ethos dot com slash chuck. Application times may vary and the rates themselves may vary as well, but trust me life insurance is something you should really think about it, especially if you've got a growing family. Let me ask it this way, though, do they everything that they've gained by sounding the alarm about healthcare at the time? Right the whole? Though? You know, in theory, why did they Why did they instigate the shutdown to sound the alarm
¶ Trump doesn't want to prop up the ACA because Obama passed it
on healthcare subsidies? So if we still don't have if we have an alarming problem on healthcare premium skyrocketing, which they're going to be, and already being quoted on huge prices for people, how do you not do whatever it takes in January when there's an opportunity to essentially corner the Republican majority to get them you know, the point is do you just want the issue or do you want to put it, you know, force them to deal with this problem? Now?
I mean, I think Democrats absolutely want the issue. It's good politics for them. You know, they would never say that or admit it, but they do know that the issue helps them. But there is actually some I think overly optimistic belief that there are some chances for some bipartisan agreement and anyway, I.
¶ Lots of Republicans have "Obama Derangement Syndrome"
Think something's coming. I do, well, this is a I think that is coming. But b I think you have to use the threat of a shutdown to get it done.
Yeah, And I think that they, you know, maybe they go there. Like I said, it's it's it's early. They definitely do not want people to start, any of their members to start threatening a shutdown right now, because then they look like arsonists and and so, you know, obviously it's very much it's very much a possibility. I personally, I don't think that they're going to do it. I think that they're too risk averse to do it.
But I expected Trump to flip on this and he hasn't. He's digging in and he dug in again last night, and it's like I, I, you know, there's a part of me that's you know, it sits there and says, well, yeah, I'd love to you. I would beat up the insurance companies too, like why do we want to give more money that? But then my response, my follow up is what's the alternative system to insurance companies? Mister president? Right, Like, this is the problem the Republicans have, Well, we don't
want to subsidize insurance companies. How else are we giving people healthcare?
Yeah? No, you're going to give them money to the people instead, but you still have to pay the insurance company.
Right like the people, right, not of it. Really, it feels like a great it feels good to say it. We're not going to give it directly to the insurance companies. We're going to give it to you to give directly
¶ The framework of the ACA came from the Heritage Foundation
to the insurance companies.
I know. I was actually surprised too, because there's the populis strain in the Republican Party that Trump purportedly believes in, which we all know he doesn't.
That.
Thinks that these Obamacare subsidies need to be extended, at least for now, until there's another plan or whatever. You know. Josh Holly is one of those people who's really been pushing it, and I thought that he was going to
¶ Trump comes close to advocating for single payer healthcare
give into but he did not, And I you know, and I'm.
Just you know, it's his own polster telling everybody that this is a disaster in the making.
Yah.
It's Tony Fabrizio that has been sounding this alarm, which is why I expected him to flip.
Sorry, yeah, no, I was gonna say. But I think that I'm only speculating here, But you know, I think that a lot of it has to do with the fact that it is Obama Care, that there is a lot of disdain for anything Biden. I mean, his whole presidency so far has been undoing what Biden did, and he obviously hates Barack Obama and so not wanting to prop up something that his predecessor did and like creating this healthcare system, and that that is a big that's
a big issue on the Hill too. A lot of a reason I've been told by multiple Republicans that they were so resistant for extending these subsidies is because fifteen years ago they vowed to never do anything to support the Affordable Care Act, and that stance from you know, almost two decades ago is staying with them now. So you could say, regardless of what the Affordable Care Act issue is, so there's some Republicans who will not do anything.
So basically, while Donald Trump thinks everybody's got Trump Arrangement syndrome, what you're saying is that there are a lot of Republicans who still have Obama derangement syndrome.
Yes, yeah, yeah, absolutely.
That ultimately is the virus that has not been cured.
Yeah. No, I mean, and actually Josh Holly will say that on the record too. He'll say, look in these private meetings, the closed door meetings with Senate Republicans, there are just people who are so dug in on anything anti Obamacare that they just won't even consider it.
It really is such an intell it's such an intellectual, intellectual, dishonest argument, right, because what Obamacare turned out to be was was essentially not government health care, but government support
¶ Republicans can't do anything on healthcare without Trump
supporting a market based system that was essentially run by the private sector. Because what Democrats wanted to do they couldn't because the insurance companies made it clear that they were going to destroy any you know, they just you know what, Clinton tried to take the insurance companies out of this. Well, guess what, right it just they lost that argument. And the irony is that this was a this was a Heritage Foundation idea that Mitt Romney put
in the Massachusetts that Bama Obama ends up implemating. I mean, the anger that these Republicans have had an idea that was originally incubated at the Heritage Foundation when it was an actual conservative think tank and not what it's turned into in the last year or two is is still like this this ironic pill that none of them seem to want to want to admit to.
Take and admit yeah, because remember Obamacare, the compromise is what Democrats wanted was a single payer plan and this
¶ Trump is done with congress, thinks he can do everything via EO
is the best that they could get. They literally, like you said, and.
You know what Trump wants. What Trump has been advocating is a form of a single payer plan. Yeah, yeah, he actually had. Anytime he talks about it, it's the closest you know, he comes to. You know, it is it is. It is amazing to me how often that they messed this up, right, Like, you know, look, Democrats seem to be allergic to border security. Right, there is
just some right you see it. You know, sometimes you're like, how is it that you guys don't see that the public is pro immigration, legal immigration, but wants some border security. Like it's okay to lead with that. It's the same thing with Republicans and there it's there's something right, like both parties have this, and to me, these are the two issues that do the right where they don't think straight.
They never think like the average person. They're so dug in on a specific piece of their you know, their rationale for obstructing on that issue that they can't acknowledge another.
Part of this, you know, yeah, I mean it's a great This is an issue that is obviously confounded Republicans for decades. I mean, this is a hard issue. It took Democrats really, I mean, you know, Hillary Kinkin, like you said, had her plan that didn't go anywhere.
If you if you're going to let the private sector deal with healthcare, there, you know the system is going to always look this gobbledly good. You know, we're allergic to government run stuff here, right, unless it's so security, unless it's better, you know, but it is, you know, they're all I am surprised that Trump didn't just expand Medicare and call it trump Care.
I know.
I mean he could have brought it down to fifty plus, said no to the subsidies, but brought that down to fifty plus, that letting people buy into Medicare at fifty years old, rather than the you know, you'd had Democrats
¶ Trump lied and claimed military bonuses came from tariff revenue
supporting that idea. I mean, like there was a way for them to put their own Yeah, there's a way to put their own signature on this in a way that could you know, that would appease certain parts of the left, absolutely, but would also make up for a more sensible system that actually business wouldn't hate well.
And also that's why during the government shutdown, Democrats I thought it was kind of lame at first or dumb at first that they were so focused on what Trump was saying and what Trump was going to do. But I came to realize towards the end that Republicans couldn't do anything without Trump, and so they put all of their focus on and well, what, you know, what is
Trump gonna do? And when Trump, you know, didn't come out in support of, you know, the bipartisan efforts, then they knew it was just it was just it was just done. But you know, I think that this also
¶ If SCOTUS takes tariff power from Trump, will he go to congress?
gets into which I wrote about for Sunday, is how little Trump thinks about Congress in the sense of he doesn't think any more legislation needs to come through the Hill. He said in October that he's done with legislating. He said it again in December, He's done. They don't need another bill. And you know, Trump just thinks that he
can do everything that matters through executive order. And the reality is that Republicans cannot get anything through Congress without Trump, and so they're in this position where they need the president, but the press resident is done with them. He got his tax extenders, he got his money for immigration enforcement, and he was able to reverse like all the clean clean energy stuff through the one big, beautiful bill. And so there's nothing else that he cares about on the Hill.
¶ Congress unlikely to hand tariff authority to Trump
So there's not going to be another reconciliation, huh.
I mean members of Congres like Speaker Johnson says that there he's going to try. He wants one, other members of Congres, other Republicans want it, but if Trump's not involved, they can't get it. That's why healthcare fell apart, is because Trump completely absent.
Well, it's because you know, I've been calling Mike Johnson a Spino speaker in name only.
Yeah, yes, yes, you know.
I keep I keep hoping this will, you know, the way Scotis and Potus takes off Rhino and Dino Spino right speaker, And I keep waiting for that to to get some traction. But it is, it's up to Trump and there so if Trump's got I mean, the only thing he wants from Congress, I'm guessing is him is a Congressional order changing the name of the Kennedy Senator to the Trump Kennedy Center, right, like that that that's about all he would care about getting out of Congress.
¶ Republican bracing for another 20 retirement announcements
Yeah, well, I mean look at the look at the military pay that he announced.
That's money that was already appropriated to the Defense Department. And it's discretionary. It's essentially discretionary housing allowance, right.
Yes, absolutely, And he is claiming that it's tariff revenue money. He's not even admitting that Congress passed this because like he just is not.
I mean, he's not the first president to try to take something that was already done and put a new label on it and stamp it. Hey, look at I've done, right, Like, you know, oh, we're giving the military extra money. Well let's call it my pay raise, you know, or my bonus.
Or right totally. But like, why don't you just say, look at what we passed or whatever, rather than say it's from tariff revenue, which actually is a I don't know why he would say it anyways, because then he'd have to take them, well, repay their tariff money if the Supreme Court rules.
So this gets to a question about the next six months, because it's interesting, you don't think there's really much legislating that's going to happen other than what they have to the have to stuff that we're not going to see
an a want twos. Okay, Well, one of the half twos that might come is if the Supreme Court rules the way most of us expect the Supreme Court rule on the president's tariff authority or lack thereof, and he will need you know, in theory, he has appliant appliant House, at least a House Republican conference that I think in probably he can get anything out of them. Senate's going to be a harder lift on tariffs. I mean, I think we all know that. Does that not change his
¶ Texas & California members are mad about redistricting
tune about the necessity of and he would want reconciliation on terif authority because you know, he needs to afford to lose Republican votes on those.
I mean, yes, So I had heard from you know, outside from lobbyists who say that they are already considering like how to go to Congress for for how to pass the tariffs. I you know, I don't even know if House Republicans will do it, though.
Check.
I think that as polling is continuing to as polling is suggesting that people are starting to tie tariffs with high costs. These Republicans who are facing voters in you know, a few months from whenever this tariff decision comes out, I just don't see them giving Trump like blanket authority to continue this tariff regime. Definitely in the Senate and even in the House, we'll see. But I just I really think that, you know, outside circumstances are going to
dictate this, the play circumstances and the economic circumstances. But if things are how they are now, I'm not sure if even they'd be on board.
Well, I do expect the White House to find other I mean even the President has sort of hinted, he goes, well, if they take it away, I've got other ways to do this. But it will be harder, and it will be more complicated, and it will get in the way of his so called deal making that he's done, that's for sure. So if if if there really isn't going to be much legislating, then how many more retirements are
¶ House races will likely cost $60 million in 2026
you know? I mean to me, that's the that's going to be the the the story of the next three weeks, right is how many members decide over the holidays. I'm out, I'm done.
Yeah, I know. So I wrote and reported a couple of weeks ago that people were Republicans were really bracing for a lot of retirements.
What is a lot another dozen?
Well, I was told at least twenty.
Another twenty. We already are at a fairly Look this is we're in the higher end of the retirements. It's nowhere near the all time record, but we're at the higher end. Another twenty would put us in an all time situation.
Yeah, so we'll see if that plays out. I was told that obviously a lot of these people are still making their decisions but serving, you know. And the Republicans that some of the Republicans I talked to, they were like, look, don't don't don't make this a a that most of these people are from safe seats really or maybe that second or third tier competitive seat, but it is an indictment on what it's like to serve in Congress right now?
Are you going to put up if you have any sort of familial strife or member is sick, or there's you know, things going on in your family that's not perfect,
¶ Members of congress spend 50% of their time fundraising
in your life that's not perfect, Why would you do this like in a when The job is fun when you're successful, when you're passing legislation, you can overcome that stuff. But then you're you start to weigh things differently, and you know, I'm told that like the Texas Republicans are, and of course the California Republicans are just pissed. They are mad about the redistricting effort.
We're mad at the White House and Johnson. Right, they're somehow mad that Johnson can't tell the President no, that's I guess what they're mad at him at right.
Yes, yes, they are not standing up for them, especially on the redistricting effort. Even though some of these seats were made safer for Republicans. People don't like to.
But they're new districts. You have to be.
New with new lines and meet new people and fundraising.
Now, this is one of those perfect storms. The times that we've had record breaking retirements are when we've had both an unpopp the majority party is in the White House and it's unpopular, coupled with a reapportionment. Right, it's a redistricting year. Nineteen ninety two is one of the ninety four cycle sort of was a big one on that both ninety two and ninety fourths or two cycles in a row, and here we are in a mid decade.
But it's both an unpopular majority party that they're facing, which is sort of the typical six year itch type of mindset, and it happens to there's a whole bunch of redistricting that happened, and so you don't want to you already fighting an uphill battle, and you know, do I really I know I'm in a fifty nine percent district, but fifty nine percent districts might be swing districts. I don't want to have to raise ten million dollars.
This cycle, right, totally, totally. And one member from a swing district, you know, said that they're going to have to raise tens of millions of dollars for you know, they're in a big media market whatever. But you know, they just said that they're race could be a sixty million dollar race for not you know, total, but for a district, which is which is mind boggling these days.
And you know, you know, I've never been like a huge the whole money in politics thing like I've I've I've I empathized with those that fight, you know, that are in that advocacy world, and it's just like, hey man, money in politics, it's just you're never going to you know, get rid of it. But but you do. You're like, Okay, this is getting crazy because North Carolina Senate, it's probably
¶ Democrats would be stupid to try to impeach Trump a third time
going to be our first billion dollar centuri one billion with a B. Main's going to be six hundred million is an estimate. Maine, Okay, Like no, ma, right, and it like you're going to buy Boston to get the tiniest piece of like of the southern tier of Portland. Right, it is we are we have hit absurd levels on money where if you don't have access to rich people, you can't run for office. And that is where suddenly when Bernie Sanders runs around saying oligarchy, you're like, well,
I how do you, holse? Do you what do you call it? Where everybody that runs for office has to have a rich person on their side in order to win.
Yeah, or be rich. It's you know, I was talking to a couple members the other day and they said that now fifty percent of their time is spent fundraising. And you know, I mean, I don't even know how
you find the time. You barely sleep, But that is just miserable to have to sit there and call people and call people, and you know, and there's a point of everyone admits that there's a point of diminishing returns, that too much money actually stops working, but you still have to raise it, and you still have to spend it.
Do you hate hangovers, well, say goodbye to hangovers. Out of Office gives you the social bus uzz without the
¶ Which congressional leaders will still be in place in 2027?
next day regret. Their best selling Out Office gummies were designed to provide a mild, relaxing buzz, boost your mood, and enhance creativity and relaxation. With five different strengths, you can tailor the dose to fit your vibe. From a gentle one point five milligram micro doose to their newest fifteen milligram gummy for a more elevated experience. Their THHC beverages and gummies are a modern, mindful alternative to a glass of wine or a cocktail. And I'll tell you this,
I've given up booze. I don't like the hangovers. I prefer the gummy experience. Soul is a wellness brand that believes feeling good should be fun and easy. Soul specializes in delicious HEMP derived THHD and CBD products all designed to boost your mood and simply help you unwine. So if you struggle to switch off at night, SOL also has a variety of products specifically designed to just simply help you get a better night's sleep, including their top
selling Sleepy Gummies. It's a fan favorite for deep restorative sleep. So bring on the good vibes and treat yourself to Soul today. Right now, SOL is offering my audience thirty percent off your entire order. So go to get sold dot Com use the promo code toodcast. Don't forget that code. That's get sold dot Com promo code toodcast for thirty
percent off. And all those donors, you know, it's funny now the million dollar donor thinks, hey, I give a million dollars, I expect some I expect something I expect, you know, And the average member of Congress going, yeah,
¶ Johnson won't be speaker in a new congress
you know, I'll jump, I'll uh, I'll jump if you're a ten million dollar donor. But a million dollar donors, there's a get you know, I joke. I give a little bit of money to the nursery of Miami Athletic Department. I also give money to my alma Monter GW basketball.
I give less GW basketball, but they're more grateful because I'm a It's a smaller pool, right when you're part of you think you think you're giving a lot of money, and you're like, yeah, there's there's fifty people ahead of you that give all the you know, and they going to get the priority, and they're going to get the attention and they're going to get the love and affection and all of that stuff. So a million dollars doesn't even buy what it used to buy anymore when it
comes to donors, which is just perverted. I'm sorry, just perverting the system. The system's already a mess.
Well, then Trump has, you know, a billion dollars of his own money that he could spend to help House Republicans keep the majority. He hasn't yet. He has said that he will help, but they have not yet gotten a commitment as to how much, how what that's going
¶ Jim Jordan is the quiet favorite to be the house GOP leader
to look like. And I'm really interested. I don't know the answer to this yet, but I'm really interested, Like, is he going to spend a bunch of money to try to primary state senators who don't go along with redistricting, which will have no impact on control of the House.
But no, you're probably just dividing your own party and just making it that much harder to have a good mature Yeah.
Yeah, absolutely. And you know, and getting back to the lack of legislating. Trump is so determined to keep control of the House that he unleashed this entire bloody redistricting war for what not to legislate because he does not want to get impeached again.
Like, so, what's the likelihood of that? I mean, I find it.
I think I think it's low.
I don't think I think it's I can't think of a dumber idea for House Democrats in the seventh year of Trump being in president of the United States to impeach him. I mean, look, I'm not saying you might have grounds to do it. I'm not saying to me, if if the next group, if if people want to impeach him, let the Republicans impeach him.
Yeah, no, I agree, And I think that it's I think that Democrats aren't going to do it. We'll see what Trump does. But yeah, so he's operating. Trump is
¶ It'd be shocking if Chuck Schumer ran again
operating out of this PTSD from his first term in these impeachments, and that's why he wants to prevent Democrats from winning the House has nothing to do with his agenda or his goals or what he wants to do for the country.
All right, of the let's talk about the four leaders, Yeah, Johnson Jeffrey Schumer. Soon, let's start with who I think are the two most unpopular within their own party these days for a variety of reasons. Johnson on the Republican side, Schumer on the Democratic side. Who's more likely to return as leader of their of You know, in this case, Johnson might be the minority leader, but he would still be the leader if Republicans lose the House come January fourth,
twenty twenty seven. I mean, who's still going to be there, Schumer or Johnson?
I think Schumer I don't think he'll be there, Yeah, and Johnson won't Yeah. I mean, of course, it all will depend on the outcome of the.
Miss Johnson only come back if they somehow hold the House.
Yeah. Yeah. If they lose the House, I think that there's going to be a huge shake up in leadership.
On likelihood that Johnson seeks reelection, so.
He'll serve you know for twenty eight you mean, no, I think for you think he definitely runs through re election this cycle, right, I think he definitely runs.
Because that would send does he because remember Paul Ryan announced in April, right of eighteen he wasn't coming back. Yeah,
¶ DSCC botched their oppo release on Graham Platner
you don't expect something like that from Johnson.
I don't. Johnson thinks way too highly of himself and his ability to bow out. Now. Yeah, I think he's in it for this cycle. I think that if Republicans lose the House, you know, they lose that slot, and so there's not a spot for him unless he becomes leader minority leader. But then there's that's the person. I don't know if he's going to run for reelection as Scalise. I think he's a higher probability of not than Johnson. For sure.
He's already found out he's never gonna be speaker, yea, right, he learned that the hard way in his was he six hours that he tried to get the votes. Was that what it was about, right, like, okay, go ahead, you get about six hours so you can get the votes and get the votes. Okay, let's move on.
Yeah. No, yeah, he's not going to be speaker. He just hasn't. He doesn't have the allies among the conference that you need. He has made a lot of people angry. And then who does.
Who would be Is there a committee chair? In fact, is there a committee chair that just gets shipped done on the Republican side that would be like like I remember one of the reasons, but Bob Livingston was supposed to be the person to replace kingrig and the reason was I think he was on ways and me just like you know, he gets stuff done, Like you know the idea that a committee chair that can get stuff done, especially in a tough committee like ways and Means or
approbes or something like that, or even rules that it like, Okay, if you know how to do that, then maybe you've got the skill set to be to be Speaker or to be leader of the caucus. Who's the committee chair that knows what they're doing?
Jim Jordan, He's He's he's the quiet, which is crazy that he's quiet if you know quiet, and that's why he is subtle.
He's very He's going to give this one more college tries to be leader of the House Republicans.
In Yeah, So I think it's Jim Jordan. I think that Tom Emmer he has some enemies too, But he
¶ There are doubts about Jeffries, but unlikely to be challenged
really has a good relationship with the Freedom Caucus, and so I think he could have a shot. He has built he's like worked really hard to build that relationship with Trump and so those are this just.
Still shaky, though, isn't it.
I mean, you know, I think it's gotten a lot better this year, especially with he's the guy who kind of has to clean up Johnson's mess a lot, or try to. And Richard Hudson, Yeah, you know Richard Hudson.
Yeah, he's the one that I get, like, I hear good, I hear people don't have bad words to say about him, whether they're mega or non mega.
Yeah, and everyone like really likes him. He's like a fun person. I don't want the job, but but yeah, you know, I forgot about him actually, but yeah, he's someone that you can keep in mind. But as far as like Schumer is concerned, you know Schumer, I do not think he's running for reelection. No one on the hill, no Democrat thinks he's running for reelection.
I can't imagine him doing it. Nobody have talked to New York. I think people would be shocked if he did. And I assume the only way he does is if somehow Democrats get the Senate and he's a majority leader again, then you might not want to give it up.
Yeah, I mean, I think that's a possibility. But I think that he's just like too damaged within the party, I think. But I think the reason he's going to be leader after twenty six, you know, if they win the majority, then absolutely. If they don't, I think he'll still be leader kind of let them.
But there might be a real challenge if they don't, right, especially if like that, Let's say Democrats win forty seats again in the House. Yeah, right, it's a forty seat
¶ Schumer & Jeffries botched the NYC mayors race
pickup in the House, thirty to forty. The new forty would be thirty. So let's say it's thirty, right, twenty five to thirty, which I think is the highest end it could be, and Democrats only pick up two sentences, right, And you know, I imagine there's a little bit of do you guys know what you're doing, you know, with when it comes to Senate races, et cetera, et cetera.
Yeah, I mean there's already that people are mad about the primaries and the heavy handed of like Grandpaton, you know, but there's.
So what's about it is that where they're heavy handed is stupid, and where they're not heavy handed, it's stupid, Like like Texas, how did you let that happen? And then you tried to get involved in Iowa and Maine, Like it makes no sense to have gotten involved in Iowa in particular, you know, I with Maine. I kind of get it now. How they how they how they leak that. I just think the way they handled the
OPO on Platner was just stupid. They were like, look at all the fluff we got, you actually turned ament. You wasted all of that ammunition, just completely just absolute political research practice. It was stupid. I don't know who made that decision. Was that a d SEC decision or a Janet Mills campaign decision? It was just stupid.
I heard it was a DS decision. I don't I you know again, I'm just every but I was I was told that, like the Janet Mills operation, like they're I mean, they're good, you won governor, but they're not like they're not DS material.
Yeah, it really is DS is DS material. I'm sorry, what proof has the DS been anything? Some of those guys I love over there, and they've been good sources for me for decades. But that's the problem. I think
¶ Does John Thune have support in the senate?
that they still think everything looks like two thousand and six or twenty twelve. I just think that they've lost I think they've lost touch on where today's Democratic Party and today's swing voter is. And then there's conceding defeat in all of these light red states. They just are conceding defeat. Where are they in Kansas? Where are they in Florida? Where are they in some of these states that they've got to put on the map even if they don't get to fifty.
Yeah, yeah, there's obviously, I mean, you are just expressing the frustration with a Democratic caucus who was thinking the exact same thing. But Jillibrand is an ally of Schumer. She's a loyal soldier, and it's really Schumer who's running it. Obviously.
Well, the fact that you don't see jail Brand ever speak about Center racist publicly, I mean she keeps a very low profile. Yeah, it has always been right. It's it's interesting how low of a profile she's kept on this.
Yeah, it actually is. I hadn't even thought about that, but it is, I think because my brain just always goes to Schumer. I don't even didn't even realize it.
Which is what makes the which was what made that decision. I would semi surprise that the rest of the Senate Democrats wanted to concentrate all of that with the two New Yorkers.
Yeah, they didn't.
Let's talk about Jeffries. He's going to get a shot at being speaker, it seems like. But there I feel like there's creeping doubts about whether he's got it, But nobody's going to challenge him per se if it's stepped in front of him, unless they somehow didn't win the House, right.
Yeah, I think that he is being given a very long runway. But I will also say I feel like last week, with the whole health care debacle in on the Republican side, that Democrats that that could be the week that Haakim Jeffries became Speaker of the House. Like I think that maybe you can point and you know, we'll obviously see that happens in the next ten months. But I feel like that was a really critical week
for Jeffries. It his long shot messaging bill of a three year extension of the Obamacare subsidies, which no one had thought had any chance now has support from Republicans because the Republicans messed it up so much. And you know, throughout this process, some Democrats were telling me outside Democrats were telling me that Jeffries had not been given enough credit for the strategy. And I feel like they or they feel like they are validated now. You know, Jeffries
¶ Covering the hill is a better beat than the White House
has a lot of challenges.
I don't envy. I think he's got the toughest job of anybody right now in leadership outside of Johnson. Johnson's got his own, but he sort of he's he allows himself to be put in a box. Jeffries has got. You know. Look, I think Jeffries and Schumer should take more incoming for for mismanaging the New York City mayors race,
like just completely screwing up the Cuomo thing. You know how they mismanage that is to me on the two leaders of the Democratic Party both are from New York City, and they buried their head in the sand when Andy Cuomo decided that he was going to run. What the f were they thinking? Right? Like, they just didn't It's not about mom, Donnie, Mam Donnie. To me, is a symptom of the mismanagement of the Cuomo situation.
Well also totally. I mean, and the funny thing is is that Schumer and Cuomo have a horrific relationship. Schumer like Yo Cuomo, and and the fact that yeah, and then they still didn't do more. So it was really really mystifying I and that you never really got a good answer about it. I will say that in my reporting, New Yorkers didn't really care about what Humor did. It's just like whatever, No.
I get that, but it's not about the public perception. It's about you want to be a leader of your party. Yeah, you're you're you should have jumped in front of the freight train. That was Andy Quaman, say sorry, buddy, no and found a found a candidate and got behind somebody else or done something differently maybe, you know, you could say. But the the way they they behaved as if they were paralyzed by the situation.
Yeah, it was. It was very very odd. And it was the donors. It came down to the donors.
And I guess, yeah, you know, you're right, Well that tells you, right, And they sau out that Cuomo's the only one that could be pro Israel anyway. I just the whole thing is just sort of bizarre to me. Let me get you out of here on this is John Thune the tallest little person? Or does he really has he actually started to develop a power base and a power structure, I asked, because I've heard crankiness about Thune, meaning that they wish Thune. Would they miss Mitch McConnell
protecting them from tough volts and John. One thing John Thune won't do is sorry, guys, I'm not standing in the way of this vote that Trump wants, you know, but the but he did shut down the the filibuster talk right getting of the filibuster, so that I assume won him some plaudits. But where's the how would you assess Thunes? Uh hold on his position right now?
Good? I think that that's why you see the least amount written about Thune is because it's hard to come up with like a good story about Thune. People generally like him. The filibuster was a huge test, will continue
to be a huge test. The blue slips, I know Grassley is kind of leading that, but you know, some other kind of disinstitutional stuff and also how the NRSC, like how these primaries go there's some frustration that the NRSC vis a vi fune is also not being tough enough in some of these primaries, like in Texas.
No I could I could hear an argument. You know, I didn't think Cornyn was going to file because I thought he would feel pressure not to file. Yeah, because Pax didn't be in the nominee is a huge problem.
Yes, it's an absolutely huge problem. But he filed and they yeah, they've really mismanaged that and they were unable to keep Wesley Hunt out of the out of the race, and so, you know, it is it's a big test
for thoone. It's interesting because McConnell in twelve and fourteen, after fourteen, I think it was that's when he really became involved in primaries and in the Purpople operation because he was screwed so badly in the primaries and John Cornyn ironically was the NRSC chair in twelve and fourteen having to deal with, you know, taking a back seat in these crazy primaries, and then McConnell stepped in after
that and is like, no, I'm running this operation. So Dune hasn't seemed to do that yet, and people are kind of wanting him to put a little muscle. But that's really the biggest complaint I've heard.
Interesting, Well, it's the best beat in Washington, still, isn't it?
Leantes It is, Yes, it is.
You know, It's always been my mantra. It's the best beat in Washington, don't you know. Don't try to go cover the White House. It sucks covered. The White House is born. Yeah, the Hill is awesome.
Now the White House is more prestigious, but the Hill is the best.
That's where you actually find news. Let me get you out of here on this. How do you describe when you have to tell people what Puck is that aren't familiar with it, how do you describe it?
I describe it as an email subscription newsletter. That the easiest way to describe it, I tell say is it's like a newer vanity fair, like a new version of vanity.
Interesting because because there's you know, there's some culture, there's business, there's there's there's even sports now, right, It's it's sort of the the look I like the idea of the four Corners, Silicon Valley, New York, Washington, LA. Right, like all of the cultural touchstones of America. That's sort of make us, you know, uh, make things run. But it's a I get it, but I imagine it is sometimes hard to.
Describe, right, Yeah, And that's why I say that because also the writing, you know, the writing matters. They really take a lot of we will take a lot of pride in in the presentation. And I feel like I'm writing a mini magazine piece every time I write. And so it just you know, our editors, you know John Kelly who started it, the top editor. They both came from Vanity Fair, like so many people grew up in that Vanity Fair heyday world, and so it's like a modern version of that.
Well it's funny you say Vanity Fair even though Vanity Fair was was a monthly and so didn't you know, I would argue what you what you guys, because I agree it's that it reminds me more of the weekly pieces that Time and Newsweek used to produce, that were filled with because Time and Newsweek didn't have to worry about the day to day Manu Shaw, they got to
take a step back and sort of have that. And so to me, you most emulate Howard Feinneman from the nineties, oh where, because Howard Fineman was the chief political correspondent for Newsweek, and he always sort of authored the big picture.
Nancy Gibbs was the person that Time magazine, you know, and she eventually became editor of Time, but she also was you know, there were these who could write it, and it's tremendous skill and it is what I think smart, the way smart people want to consume this information.
So well, thanks. Yeah, I think that it's like a great niche and I think it was missing, especially in this like you know, cable news, yeah, and punch Bowl News of like every minute this is happening.
I'm not going to bring up the there's two news organizations that should have been filling this vacuum and chose not to, and you used to work on one of them.
Yeah.
Yeah, we'll leave it there, Leah Caldwell, always a pressure. Enjoy the holidays, enjoy your break.
Thanks you seek deck.
There's a reason results matter more than promises, just like there's a reason. Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury law firm. For the last thirty five years, they've recovered twenty five billion dollars for more than half a million clients. It includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing, just hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.
Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars, which was a staggering forty times the amount that the insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred and fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred fifty thousand dollars. So with more than one thousand lawyers across the country, they know how to deliver for everyday people. If you're injured,
you need a lawyer. You need somebody to get your back. Check out for the People dot com, Slash podcast or dial pound law Pound five two nine law on your cell phone. And remember all law firms are not the same, So check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free unless they win
