¶ Ian Bremmer joins the Chuck ToddCast
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¶ Where we're going... there are no roads
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a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. How unsettled do you feel about the globe? How unsettled do you feel about American politics? Obviously, of the year I team twenty twenty six, a year of living dayangerously, I think, whether it's what we saw in Minnesota feels like we're a spark away from something not good in this country, and we have a world that feels unsettled everywhere, whether it's Venezuela, whether it's Iron, whether it's Taiwan, whether it's Ukraine.
¶ The middle east could be heading towards a better place
Well you get the picture. So who better to bring in to talk about all the risk and the year of living dangerously than my Friendie and Bremer of your Raisier group and Ian.
Look you you.
I started off a bit glum for the year, and you had you played a big role in that. Your annuals, your annual risk list of top risks out there, frankly, only reinforced what I think what was already I was sort of seeing domestically, and certainly I sort of refer to myself these days as a political anthropologist when it comes to domestic politics. But you've got your pulse on international political science as well. So you painted a picture
¶ Trump gave a wake up call to Europe & others
of Look, I want to quote Doc Brown in a back to the future, where we're going there are no roads. I don't know where we're going, but I know there are no roads, and we're headed somewhere that by the end of this year you and I may meet up again, going holy shit, how did we get here?
I mean this, It's not like there isn't good news out there, right. I mean, for example, last twenty years, most of the people I know in the international affairs space thought that we were heading towards US China confrontation, new Cold war, you know, could could lead to something
¶ America is the top risk to the world & center of instability
even worse than that. That that's not where we are, right, I mean the.
Right. And I also think when we can talk about Iron for a minute, we're about to see a Middle East that maybe.
A whole new world.
In a in a good way.
Maybe maybe I'd love to see that. I think we're still We're still farther from that than i'd like us to be. There's a lot of capacity and willingness to repress, and a lot of Ronnie and civilians that are dead today that weren't a week ago. But still, I mean, it's not like everything in the world is blowing up, and the response to the United States is not purely destructive.
I mean, frankly, you know, the EU and Mercasoor just did one of the world's largest free trade deals that wouldn't have happened if it wasn't for Trump, because they're.
I talked about this the last time I had you on. I think Donald Trump's making Europe great again. Well, I wouldn't go down, I think, Well, but the point what I what I mean by it is Europe needed to stop.
Relying on the United States, so they need a kick in the ass and fear that they're still not going to make it.
But yes, I agree, and Donald Trump's presidency turned out to be the kick of the ass that at least they find noticed.
¶ There hasn't been regime change in Venezuela
Donald Trump is definitely that kick in the ass. I think that's clear. I think that's clear for the Europeans, for the Canadians, for the Mexicans, for some for the remaining regime in Venezuela. I mean, my god, he represents a kick in the ass to an awful lot of people. But of course, you know, the big thing is that the uncertain We have seen the uncertainty, we've seen the risk, and he is us, right, I mean, that is that is the reason why.
That's what's so. But that's not even you know, it's funny. You made it your top risk. And yet I feel like two years ago, if you had done that, it would have seen controversial, It would have been weird if we weren't the top risk. Right, shocking, Right, we are at the center of everybody else's instability.
Yep, yep, yep, no questions.
A weird place for America to be, yep.
But in part it is the logical conclusion of decades of Americans of different stripes increasingly saying we don't like the role that we have carved out for our selfs globally, we don't really believe in it in different ways, whether it's foreign aid or promotion of rule of law and democracy, or free trade or collective security alliances, all these wars. So that that's a big piece of it, right, And
¶ The Venezuelan regime will behave while threatened
then there's the domestic piece too, with two completely different worldviews housed in one country. Right. And you know when those things start to really break, when those assumptions are fundamentally questioned by a guy who is, you know, thrives on being a chaos actor, then it's not a surprise that we're.
Driving that uncertain Let's start in our hemisphere and then move. So one of the things I like to correct with some of my friends on the left actually is that there hasn't been regime change in Venezuela. The regime is still in power. Yes, right, they've only extracted one individual. How do we get to individuals? Don't disparage the wife.
Like that enough?
Where how do we get to a better place in Venezuela without American boots on the ground.
¶ The Venezuelan regime has no interest in sharing power
Well, I mean, let's face it, getting to a better Venezuela with American boots on the ground might be more challenging, right, I mean, given our recent experience in Venezuela is not Iraq, right, It's not Afghanistan, It has recent experience with democracy, it
doesn't have massive internal sectarian divides. There are a lot of exiled elites that would love to be able to come back, and the power asymmetries are massive with the United States right there in the hemisphere, right, So, I mean, there are lots of reasons to believe that at least in the near term, they are going to behave eve themselves more because they understand the orls they are going to.
They're going to listen to the Americans on oil. They have freed a small number of political prisoners, but high level prisoners, by the way, leaders of in the opposition movement,
because Marco Rubio and others told them they had to. So, you know, the early days on this are without American troops, but with the credibility and presence of all of that military capacity, and with the willingness to prod the IMF to provide some support over time and get some private sector companies with guarantees to actually back them up, that
¶ National elections could be held in Venezuela in a year
there are reasons why in the near term this will go well. The much more the problem with Venezuela is much more about when start talking about actual power sharing, which the people want, you know, Frankly, Marco and others around Trump, even if Trump doesn't care, they want it, and yet the government, the existing regime will resist that with every sinew of their body.
My concern is that Trump doesn't care about the democracy piece. If the regime does what he asks, he's going to be fine with leaving them in place.
Well, but I'm suggesting that that won't work right. In other words, that when you have when you have that many people in the country that now see a weaker, more vulnerable military that's been bloodied up by the US, and they overwhelmingly want their opposition in place, they will clamor for it. That when you have a lot of MAGA supporters in Mara A Lago who are themselves exiles, that's a strong community. They're going to be pushing for it.
Marco and others that really did organize the TikTok on these attacks also they want it. And so I don't even though Trump Trump's the decider. Trump's got the power,
¶ How much will anti-Americanism affect Latin American elections?
he's the president, and he doesn't care. I agree he doesn't care about what kind of regime it is. But I think that he can't. He can't just ignore that issue.
Do you see it? Like we help that there's elections in six months a year? What's your you know, is there anybody thinking about this? Like okay, when what's the soonest? We could actually hold national elections?
Soonest is probably six months? More realistic is twelve to eighteen. And again, as they start talking about it, and it won't be the first thing they discuss, but as they get to that process, what I think we will see is an effort by the military to give on many other grounds and obfuse gate, which is what they've done before.
Reasons why it can't be done soon, and here are the mechanisms, and here are some candidates we can't tolerate, and all sorts of ways to push out, water down and ensure that they are the ones that control everything. But ultimately, I'm not going to sit here and tell you a power sharing agreement is impossible. You couldn't just bring in the opposition and tell the military you're out.
¶ Domestic security is the #1 voting issue in Latin America
But then again, we all know that Paul Bremer doing that in a rock that was a disaster. Like removing the Bathists, removing the security and the military forces was what the US should have never done, never done.
There are a handful of intriguing elections this year in Latin America, Columbia, Colombia is fascinating to me, in Brazil or probably the two big ones. There's Peru as well. How much will anti Americanism be part of those campaigns? Now? And you know my great fear is, look, you know, I'm I'm. I have a friend who does a lot of work in Colombia has not been a big fan of this. This political party is hopeful that the other political party comes back. And I know that a lot
of American business folks feel that way. And it looks like that had been a glide path. But now I wonder does Trump and does our involvement in Venezuela spark a backlash in a Colombia spark a backlash? Yeah?
No, and it doesn't. So it's a good it's a really good question, especially because we've seen that backlash change outcomes in Canada. We've seen that backlash change outcomes in Australia in both cases is and I.
Would argue Lula's political standing has been strengthened due to Trump.
A little bit, a little bit much less so, but a little bit definitely after Trump, you know, sort of basically said we're tariffing you because of the bull jail term that was handed down by the Supreme Court. Not not Lula, right, but but actually in Latin America, in these countries, number one issue overwhelmingly right now is domestic security, and and that plays out so bole in l Salvador is by far the most popular leader, even though he's
a pro Trump guy. He's not popular because he's pro Trump. He's popular because he's actually really like wielded the fists in creating security. And one could argue he's broken a lot of eggs to make that omelet right.
A lot of guys, I'll uh, you'll appreciate this. I teach a for USC here in DC. That's called how Washington works. And last semester I had a an nol Salvadorian student who said, yeah, boy, my parents and I don't speak about Bouqueta anymore. Like it was just like she said, basically, if you live in al Salvador.
You love the guy.
If you don't live there, you don't and you're El Salvador and you don't like the guy. It's a it's a fascinating it's.
Like ninety percent local approval, and it's it's true approval, right, And it's.
Just because she does. Look, it was so unsafe, right, it was so.
When Maduro gets taken out, and he is not just a bad guy, but he is actually coordinating narco cartels right across the region, and he also did lead to the destabilization of a lot of countries, including Colombia because of eight million displaced Venezuelans. They are delighted to see
¶ Brazil's election will be very close
the back of Maduro and they want security in their own countries. So I and the secondary issue is the local economy. So I don't think there's a backlash. Mexico is a different story because it's so integrated with the US and their economy is not doing well though Shanebaum is actually quite popular. But for Columbia and for Brazil, I don't actually think that the Trump factor will be determinative and either of them.
Well, it's been interesting. It's sort of like I and this is where you sometimes have cross currents. There does seem to be a general move you know, and we've seen this in Latin America. It's like a windshield wiper when suddenly, you know, five countries move left, then five countries move.
Right, you know, and I feel like there's a right word pull right now. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But in Columbia, I mean, Petro got into that big spat with Trump, and apparently the Trump administration was like literally had targets and they were ready to engage in the lateral strikes. And then Petro calls Trump and he pretends that like he'd been begging for that call for weeks.
Yeah, and he.
Made it sound as if, oh, I didn't even know Trump was gonna call me, and so thank god I wasn't laid for it. But I mean, you know, we're gonna get together and it's going to be wonderful, and you know, suddenly their buddies. Because he's been personally sanctioned by by the United States, right, and it's a problem for him. He really wanted the the other side of get the other side of that potential conflict, and I
¶ Claudia Scheinbaum has been deft in dealing with Trump
think the likelihood that his preferred candidate on the left can get through a second round is. It's there, but it's it's very low. You would expect to string.
You know, you don't fear that anti Americanism could suddenly prop that left disc government.
Nope, Nope, it's not playing out in any of the polls right now, not at all. And Brazil I think is going to be a close election and it's going to be Bolsonaro's kid, right it looks that way. I mean, that's just going to be a fascinating putting forward fight. And they're now thinking about who his running mate for vice president would be. But I would say they still want to see how he's going to do over the next couple months before they all line up behind him.
So it's likely to be Flavio bolscenario. Keep in mind that his father, the former president, has had a lot of health issues recently, and you know, if he ends up really not being able to be a strong, live political force, things could change very quickly.
¶ Mexico has been cooperating effectively, negating potential strikes
How's Lula's health, He's been there a long time.
Seems to be okay. I mean he's what in his eighties now, he doesn't even keep a smartphone. I mean he's like, you know, the way he does his work and the way he's briefed is so twentieth century. It's kind of shocking that he's running the largest economy in South America, but he's decided he wants to run again. I think it's criminal negligence for him to be running for another full term basically because of his age. Yeah and all of that. Yeah, absolutely, but very much that
Biden situation. Biden situation, I mean all across subs are in Africa. I mean a lot of places where people should know. This is a huge issue all over Africa, that's for sure.
Let's move to Claudia Shinbaum because one of the comments that didn't get a lot of traction over the last couple of weeks was when Trump just managed, matter of factly, said well, she doesn't control her own country. I'm gonna have to take care of the cartels, and you're and Shinebaum to her. She never overreacts to Trump publicly. She
¶ Talk of strikes in Mexico has ramped up post-Venezuela
always she is you know, she's in that sense, she's figured out how to manage the personal relationship with him, probably better than any world leader. But I'm curious if you disagree, well.
I mean, you'd argue that h J and Ping has done the best job managing the Trump relationship back and turns out that's effective. Right, But Cloudia, pound for pound, Cloudy the best job. Yeah, I think that's probably right. I mean, her throw weight is a little smaller in terms of Mexico's asymmetrical disadvantages. But I will say that, like three months ago.
You know, the the scuttle but inside the White House was, yeah, we thought we might have to engage in strikes, but they're cooperating so effectively that we probably don't need to now.
And that was even Stephen Miller's perspective.
Right, it's my assunt, but I understand that in country. I've got a few people I've talked to that say that she seems pretty intent and that she's more serious about it than Amblo was.
Yes, yes she is, and she is both in terms of the importance of her security. Bona fide is for her own popular support in terms of what she did when she was mayor of Mexico City and the corruption around the Attorney General, the Minister of Justice, excuse me, and others, which she's who she finally forced out, the chief prosecutor. And also because she understands the she's very vulnerable to the Americans if she doesn't shut down the meth labs, if she doesn't, you know, sort of capture
a whole bunch of fentanyl. And they have done more, but but is more enough. They are very worried about it,
¶ There's been a huge number of political assassinations in Mexico
and it certainly seems to me that Trump, that Marco Rubio in particular over the past week since the Venezuela operation have soured on Mexico, is getting this done. Maybe this is over confidence because of Venezuela and the focus on the Donroe doctrine. Maybe it's because there there isn't as much cooperation as they really want. Maybe it's because they're they're worried about the economy and the rest in the US. They want to show some more wins. But definitely that noise has increased.
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¶ Trade relations would take a huge hit if America strikes militarily
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¶ There's less urgency from Trump admin for regime change in Cuba
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And it's also available in Canada. That's q u i nce dot com slash chuck, free shipping and three hundred and sixty five day returns quints dot com slash chuck. Doesn't she have a I mean, tourism is.
So important to the Mexican economy, and.
The perception in this country is that Mexico is not.
As not safe. Doesn't she wants Americans to believe things
¶ Venezuela and Mexico have been propping up the Cuban regime
are safe?
There Isn't that good.
Ef the perception. I mean, when you think about it depends on how you pray. Sure, But I mean, do we really think that Cancun is a problem. No?
And I've always been told that the reason why Cabo and Cancun aren't a problem is because the cartels own the hotels in those areas and that's the money. That's how they launder the money, and they know they don't want to kill the golden goose, so I have that's how That's how I've had folks reassure.
Me about Cabo. Put it that way, okay, But tuloom, I mean, you know my Coba even Mexico City, I mean, you know, Guadalajara, I mean Wahaka. I mean the friends of mine from all walks of life, from working class to super rich, have not been you know, sort of cutting their Mexico trips because they're concerned about getting you know, sort of hauled off by the drug lords or caught in a firefight. I think it's much more of a concern for the companies that are operating in those areas,
for whom you know, a shakedown is real. It's also a huge concern for the mayors and in the localities that are running who are getting gunned down. It's a huge number of political assassinations across.
Especially northern in the northern part of the country. Definitely, yeah, still, yeah, I still wouldn't recommend a road trip in Mexico.
No, but I look, I think the big issue is that if the United States decides to go in unilaterally with drones or with the federal allys and engages in strikes that the Mexican government is not cooperating with overtly, I think that is a redline for this government and for the US Mexico relationship.
That would be a disaster. Okay, what does that look like.
I think that trade relations would would take a severe hit. I think that she would. I think she'd be in very serious trouble unless she immediately hit the Americans back and said this won't be tolerated with real consequences, it would cause a break. You said that she's handled managed Trump better than anybody else pound for pound, we would stop saying that immediately.
Cuba, how how can this regime survive without the help of Venezuela. How important was Maduro? Is Maduro is that regime to Cuba?
So it appears that the United States, and I've only heard this in the last few hours, so I'd like
¶ Why haven't we pushed harder for changes in Haiti?
to dig into it, is not going to pressure the Mexicans to stop providing oil to Cuba. Marco Rubio recognizes that he wants the regime gone, but he also knows that they are not exporting the kind of instability across the region that Venezuela has, So it doesn't appear that there is urgency. And there also isn't a plan that's been put together. Yeah, and the plan for Venezuela, which was, you know, militarily a very significant plan from an intelligence
perspective too, that took about six months. So it doesn't feel unless the Cuban economy collapses, driving massive, you know, sort of unrest on the ground, this doesn't feel like something that we're going to be seeing headlines on next week.
I know, over the last twenty years, the Spanish government in particular had been very helpful to Cuba, obviously the Venezuelans. I mean, it does seem as if that who invests in.
Cuba these days, who has been helping them the most? Yeah, well, I mean Venezuela has been significant and Mexico has been significant. Those are the two largest countries in the region that
¶ Almost zero chance there are elections in Haiti this year
have been propping them up. And of course, with Venezuela essentially having been blockaded and now with the oil being taken over by the United States, one assumes that that has been cut off, and it would be cut off from Mexico if the Americans demanded it. So I think it's a question of you know, the how and the when,
as opposed to the weather. I can't see Trump in office for four years with Rubio as Secretary of State having taken out Maduro, allowing the Cuban regime to persist that that does not seem likely to me.
And I had a friend of mine just tell me that the that the constituency that he is becoming enamored with the most are the living Bay of Pigs guys
¶ Chance of military invasion of Greenland is extremely low
that have become a staple at mar A Lago. Now, part of that, I've always said, I think part of you know, Trump is Trump has been inaugurated as a real South Floridian at mar A Lago over the last seven years. And I don't think people understand the extent of Marco Rubio's education of Donald Trump in the world of the exile politics, and that now he is, you know, he's on a first Dame basis with all those surviving Bay of Pigs guys. And I'm with you one hundred
thousand percent. He he sees that as a legacy opportunity in Cuba, looks weak enough to make it not that hard, although these things always are harder than they love.
I mean, this does not mean to me that Rubio is the slam dunk for twenty twenty eight or anything. But I just I can't see once you've embraced the
¶ A coercion campaign towards Greenland is much more likely
Donroe Doctrine as your priority region, and it's not just Trump. The National Security Strategy Document in December, you know, sort of anticipated all of this before the Venezuela operations. I don't see how you leave Cuba alone.
So let me throw a question that I got the other day and I didn't have a great answer for it, which is Haiti. You know, for all of the tumult in our hemisphere, that's one place that Trump doesn't want anything to do with.
Now.
The person asked the question, if there were more resources that were important to us on the island of Hispaniola, would we be more engaged with what's happening on the Haitian side of the mountain. You know, look in fairness to Trump, you know, a lot of presidents haven't been able to figure out the Haitian problem.
Yeah they're not. I mean, it's massive gang violence, it's massive human predation.
Are we still outsourcing this to the Kenyans and hoping they can prevent?
I mean, they're they're the peacekeepers on the ground. There's been some American money, some Canadian money, and some policing, but support and training, But the United States, this being
¶ Denmark very open to negotiations addressing American concerns
right in America's backyard and Biden administration has done nothing on it. Trump administration has done nothing on it. I mean of course that the top concern is making sure that Haitians can't make it to the US and sending them back when they do. But aside from that, there's a big not our problem. And you would you one would think this would be more important in the context of the Donro doctrine.
I was just gonna say, if you believe it right now, As as a South Floridian, I can tell you the Haitians don't have the political power that the Cubans do, not even close. And you know, they don't have.
The business community. They're not in they're not the mara Alago members and.
The Refever, if they could get into mar A Lago, perhaps people there are supposed to be elections in Haiti. The likelihood that happens this year.
Seems close to zero.
Yeah, all right, Greenland, I'm staying geographic here, stay in a geographics stay in the hemisphere or the edge of the what is Greenland western hemisphere or not? No, no, but.
It is now. It is now. That is the point.
What what's the you've got to people will pay you.
¶ It'd be very easy to ramp up military operation in Greenland
And I say this not in some sort of meaning like you're a you're a consulting company, and you know you're you're there to help people, Like, what's the most likely scenario here? So what's the most likely scenario of Greenland's relationship to the United States? January twentieth, twenty twenty nine.
So the the likelihood of an actual US military invasion to hate Greenland strikes me as staggeringly low. That would that would end NATO. It would be incredibly believe, right, and it was incredibly unpopular in the United States. It would also be incredibly unpopular in Greenland, frankly, and you know,
¶ Trump is undermining the concept of collective security
why would you want to deal with that? Right? But but you know, that's like saying, what's the likelihood of
the Russians sending tanks into the Baltics? That's not the way they get what they want, right, They use all sorts of asymmetric warfare, and the Americans would have a lot more carrots to use, because look, what they want is to come up with a plan that Trump will approve that has you know, an information campaign and all sorts of money being thrown at them and coercion that would get the Greenlanders to want to have a referendum to leave Denmark and join the United States. Now, what
¶ Greenland is a legacy play for Trump
is the likelihood that such a thing could be successful. We have no idea if it was, you know, held today, it would you know, get defeated very very soundly.
But we have only fifty seven thousand constituents to buy off, not that many, right, you might buy them off. And it sounds like Trump thinks there's a chance to buy him off.
Sure, sure he does. And he also loves the idea of painting that island, you know, Trump Landia. I mean, he's his entire life is about putting his name on stuff,
¶ Trump is causing permanent damage to relationship with Europe
and whether it was buildings in the on the Upper West Side that he doesn't own, or whether it's the Kennedy Center or whether it's Greenland. Now, now, you know, if you talk to the people in the national security space in the Trump administration, most of them will say, you can get a lot of what you need, and there are real security concerns by negotiating with Denmark and
green then, but not everything. And so there is there is a little bit of a real argument here, and of course it's being developed because Trump is telling them to So for example, sure, you know, what is.
That I was just going to say, what's the real because this is not He's not the first president that is one of this. There's I think we all see the strategic uh need potentially and obviously with with thanks to climate change, the Arctics is going to be a battleground for resources and all sorts of things. So I you know, the strategic need is there. But but what is it that we couldn't get from a treaty?
So, I mean a few things. One the argument would be that in particular, if it comes to stationing offensive weapons, as the Russians and and even the Chinese become more assertive, aggressive and present in the area, that's something that the Greenlanders under Danish rule and with their own autonomy, would would not want that. That also be slower pro bureaucratically
¶ Will the Iranian regime survive the calendar year?
of getting agreements to allow you even to have defensive and intelligence. We don't have NAT outposts there now, Yeah, that is one outpost there with like one hundred and fifty people there in the Cold War, of course is more like fifteen thousands, So I mean it would be very easy to ramp it up. But there are real,
albeit small and I think manageable, but still issues. And there's another issue which is kind of more existential, and it's a cute argument to use, but I get it, which is that, well, you know, how much would the Russians or Chinese believe the Americans would defend the territory of an ally as opposed to territory that belongs to themselves, and especially given that Trump is undermining the belief in
US led collective security. Like you've got the Baltics that aren't convinced that America would necessarily go to bad for them if need be. So if Greenland is still a part of Denmark, well, yeah it's NATO, but would America really defend it. Where if it's America, you know they'll defend it as America. It's a weird argument because, of course, again Trump is undermining it himself. But I do kind of understand the existential logic having said all of those things, Chuck,
¶ Iranian regime has large capacity to repress the population
I don't want to give the audience the wrong idea. Overwhelmingly, this is Trump deciding I have to have my name on this thing. This is a legacy issue for me. Is the most consequential American president in history. It's not like he cared about it on his first term, and those issues were all present during his first term.
Right, is there a price that the Danes would say, well, we can't say no to that.
This is not only panicking the Danes and the Nordics, but it's making them incredibly angry, like with Canada and
¶ Looks like the US military will target Iranian police & paramilitary
unlike with Latin Americas.
So it's a boomerang. It's an anti Americanism is.
Causing permanent damage to the US relationship with Europe, permanent damage. The Americans throwing the Ukrainians under the bus on many instances, and the Europeans coming back and also paying for it themselves. The Americans promoting eurosceptic parties, including in Germany the AfD, which many Germans consider to be a neo Nazi party, the Greenland issue. There are so many instances where the
Europeans today consider the Americans fundamentally unreliable. And I think this is going to cause permanent damage to the.
Relationship it already had. I mean, yeah, there's no coming
¶ Nobody has ever targeted the Iranian judges that send people to die
I mean and that, and I'm gonna save this to the end. But it's sort of like, it doesn't sound like a change of administrations just flips a switch.
This time, not this time, not this time.
All right, let's move to Iran. You know, I know that a regime falls. It's like the definition of bankruptcy first it's slowly, then it's quickly, right like we knew Syria would fall, We knew a Sod would fall, we just don't know when. And all of a sudden one day, Oh my god, as Sod's gone. Right, he's in Russia. It's over. And I have a feeling it's like this.
I was in Abu Dhabi about a month ago. It's a huge Iranian diaspora there, and the optimism that the regime is going to fall was through the roof then,
¶ Collapse of regime doesn't feel imminent, but likely within a few years
and this was pre protests. Do you think this regime last the calendar year?
I would love to say that it does it. I'd love to see the back of this regime so incredibly repressive of its own people and exporting so much instability with bad actors around the region. Hamas has the Lah others. But it feels to me like they still have very significant capacity to repress, and I haven't yet seen cracks inside the regime itself. The Supreme Leader is incredibly old. He's mid eighties. I think he's like eighty six now.
He's quite he's quite frail, he's ailing, he's had it seems like he's had cancer that he's dealing with but he's hand selected all of the top security officials, and they don't seem to be in any way backing away from him. We've seen no climb down. Despite American pressure for the IRGC, the Islamic revolution of Guard Core and the besiege the paramilitary group under them that does the head knocking and the shooting, we've seen no willingness of them to say no to orders or back away. The
repression has been very extensive. And that's that's included technical press in terms of you know, shutting down electricity, shutting
¶ Is the US military stretched thin right now?
down the internet, and the rest and enforcements across the country despite very different regional you know makeups, ethnic makeup, and the rest in different parts of irun So and the United States, as much as Trump has said, you know, you better behavior else We're going to hit you. So far, the plans for what the US might do seem to
¶ What collapse of Iranian regime would mean for the region
be pretty pinpoint and symbolically, I mean, I expect at some point actually some military strikes for the US.
What would that look like and what could be effective?
Oh well, what it would look like and what could be effective or two different things. So one what it would look like. I mean, right now, it looks like it's going to be the US going after the police, the US going after the paramilitary forces directly, not taking out the supreme leader. I'd like to see them be
a little more creative than that. You know, for exams sample, you have all of these judges that are serving the regime and are handing down sentences without any evidence, no rule of law, innocent people that are being sentenced to horrible jails, time or death, and those judges have never been targeted, and frankly they should be. They are instruments of terror in the Iranian regime. You know, the Israelis have targeted nuclear scientists. No one's after gone after the
people that are actually sending civilians to their death. That strikes me is you know, you go after them, you go after some of these softer points that allow a dictatorship of theocracy to unleash terror within the country. Maybe you start to unravel it a little bit. But again, if if you were asking me to make a bet, are they gone, Are they gone in five years, Yeah, they're gone in three years probably? Are they gone in
¶ Saudi Arabia is speed running a modernization & reform process
like six months? That's a harder call for me. Right now doesn't feel imminent, especially because on the ground I mean, there's a lot of support inside Iran for Razapaalabi, who's the one that's saying I want you all out there demonstrating, but there's no real organization of an opposition movement inside Iran itself.
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¶ Any chance Bibi Netanyahu is out in Israel soon?
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¶ Normalization with Saudi Arabia is on the table once Bibi is out
the rates themselves may vary as well, but trust me, life insurance is something you should really think about, especially if you've got a growing family. Somebody indicated to me that they thought the president was quietly. Somebody said it sort of so that the president sort of is prepared to become the Gorbacheff of Iran, and I thought, I'll believe it when I say it.
I mean, he's weak. He is more of a centrist in the Iranian context than was expected when those presidential elections occurred. But I mean, he is seen as a failed figure. The economy has utterly collapsed under his rule. He engaged in a.
Whole pultable water in Tehran right now.
Yeah, they've got a massive water crisis in the capitol and he he was supporting behind the scenes talks with
¶ The Israel/Gaza ceasefire was improbable win for Trump
the Americans, and that's happening again through Oman and they're good offices, but the Supreme Leader has stopped anything from happening. So I don't know that the president possession would be useful in really driving a different outcome.
Are we stretched a little thin right now with Venezuela, with what we're doing in Syria, with what to douce more in Iran? Would are we prepared if we wanted to do something, could we do it immediately? Or do
¶ Trump's transactional negotiating works well in the middle east
we actually have a little bit because of this Venezuela exercise.
The B two's are all been you know, they're all repositioned Diego Garcia. There's massive amount of firepower and readiness to engage in those strikes. If that's what you do. You could also send them from like Montana if you really needed to, right we did Americans have that capacity Again, if you're not talking about boots on the ground and actual regime change with an ability to execute on it. The limitations of the US military suddenly how much much less.
So I don't want to like get ahead of ourselves, But what would this mean for a rock.
It would mean that a significant constraint on their government and the lever that has prevented them from working more effectively with the big powers in the region would be gone. And I think that that would be a useful thing for a Rocky economic.
I mean, you know, you paid a picture. It's like God, you know, if a run, if this regime went away, maybe Syria could thrive, Maybe Lebanon could thrive, Maybe I Rock could thrive. Right like feels like it's steady. I mean, are we're being too optimistic about what would happen after the fall of this regime.
Well, we've seen that Saudi Arabia, you know, which we've thought of as a twenty years ago, even ten years ago, as an enormously conservative and pretty repressive monarchy, and today I mean truly revolutionary in the positive sense, for young people, for women participating in the economy, for tourism becoming a real part of GDP tourism in Saudi Arabia, like no one was talking about that ten years ago, and now it's increasingly becoming a world class destination.
Still probably go to Abu Dhabi or Dubai before ryadd but still you know, go for it.
But Alula is now becoming a world class must do destination,
¶ Settlements expanding in west bank, that won't be unwound
which is in Saudi Arabia, and if you haven't heard of it yet, you will within another year or two. So definitely they're putting real effort into that. And yeah, it's going to be for tourists in the region first, but then it's going to be from all over the world. So you know, I think that don't underestimate what energy, wealth and some technocrats can accomplish given level of control.
And of course what you have in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates in particular, I mean cut it is tiny, but you have, you know, very strong centralized control and all you need is the ability to support a reform process, which they didn't have before. The Emiratis went first, and now the Saudis are fast following.
Maybe Nan Yahoo. You know, it's interesting. I remember there's a poll right before the ceasefire which said as soon as there's a ceasefire, sixty percent of Israelis wanted him out. I don't see a path for him to be out anytime soon. But what's your sense.
I think that it's going to be a very close run election. Israel is a fragmented multi party system where coalition building is extremely hard and also very opaque until after you have the votes in. We could easily He's an incredibly talented tactician in election math and management. He's also very charismatic and being able to convince people that he can give them the world and that others along that. So,
I mean, it's really hard to count him out. But he could absolutely not be a part of the next government in Israel. I think that that is that is
¶ Nobody has done more damage to Israel's reputation than Bibi
plausible as we look, are plausible this time than there has been in quite some time, probably, And and you know, the fact is that normalization with Saudi Arabia, once BB is gone is absolutely on the table. Then you can move ahead with Phase two, which BB opposes, but which you know you could actually move on.
Now.
The Israelis don't support a Palestinian state anymore, there is no there's no support for that in the population as a whole, but there is support for I think among the majority of the population for the peace plan that actually passed the Security Council, the American peace Plan that past the Security count This, this is probably the most
¶ Russians giving Trump nothing in negotiations over Ukraine
improbable foreign policy win by the United States in the first year of Trump, because the US went from being completely isolated by pretty much everyone for supporting a war that was considered ethnic cleansing by the vast majority of the world's governments and populations, with massive humanitarian damage and tens of thousands of Palestinians killed kids, right, all huge humanitarian outrage. And then suddenly Trump got all the countries
¶ Europeans are funding Ukraine after Trump cut them off
in the region together and during the United Nations and said We're going to make a ceasefire happen. And everyone passes it in the Security Council except the Russians and Chinese who abstain.
You know, it's fascinating about Trump with this. I've said this. You know, he's the last person you'd want to negotiate with Europe, but he might be the only person you want negotiating in the Middle East. In a weird way, his style, his transactional nature. Look, I don't think he cares about BB, and BB's gonna find this out. And but in a weird way, he speaks the same language, and and he's it works there. It doesn't work in a lot of other.
Parts of the world, but he's so popular there. Weirdly went to the Kanesset and spoke there. I mean, the ovations that he was getting popular from the not it's not even close. I mean, he's unpopular, and rightfully so. But Trump is wildly popular, very popular across because he's delivered for them. He's the one that moved the American
¶ Europeans bought a veto over Trump selling out Ukraine
embassy to Jerusalem after so many presidents Democrat Republican promised and then didn't deliver. He's the one that recognized the goal on Heights as part of Israel, which another president, other presidents wouldn't do. So he has delivered for the israelis.
No, which is why he he alone, might be the person which may in its own way, why the world.
Sort OF's like, Okay, you can get this done, go do it right. Yeah, Being clearly he was more more capable of pressuring Israel when he felt like it, and he did.
This to China.
Will this be like that kind of foreign policy victory in his legacy not? I think not. If if bb wins, if he's he's part of the coalition because I think that again, what Trump really wants is the Saudi normalization, and I's gone, you can't do that until you end the Israeli occupation of guys that you create some reconstruction.
I don't think it has to be a state, but there has to be some kind of self governance with security provided by outsiders but not Israel, and that just I don't think that can happen as long as BB is there. And let's also keep in mind that the
¶ Still very little meaningful dissent inside Russia over the war
settlements in the West Bank are expanding and BB's far right allies are pushing that and not Yahoo is supporting it.
Yep. I don't know how you unwind that.
So that I think that that those are facts on the.
Ground, and I don't know it's a I've been in plenty of conversations with a certain monarch who touches that West Bank. I mean some things, the toothpastes out of the tube.
Yeah yeah, I mean, how many millions of Palestinians are living in Jordan now and the right of return, Yeah, that is never happening. Remember there was a deal that Jared Broker that got you before the Abraham Accords, that I mean was a lot less territory for the Palestinians than they would have had with the previous Camp David accords. And yet you know was couldn't get done, non starter for the Palestinians, and still reflected much more than they
¶ Russian economy is starting to take more of a hit
have now. And that's the problems, the power asymmetries between the Palestinians and the Israelis, and between the entire axis of resistance in the Israelis, including Iran and the Israelis. The Israelis have the military capabilities and the wherewithal.
No they're going to be able to dictate the terms of the surrender.
It's funny. Ant Yahoo just came out today, I don't know if you saw that and said he really wants to end the Israeli reliance on all of the American foreign aid in the next ten years. He doesn't want any more defense support. He wants the belief and the support of the American people the American government, but he doesn't want the money. I mean, I will believe that
when it happens. But it's interesting because he understands that the relying on the American taxpayers has been such an incredible populous push in the US, and the US has ended that for you know, almost.
Everybody else around them phebe if BB Well, nobody's done more damage Daser's reputation in the United States than Bbnanya
¶ Giorgia Meloni is probably most secure leader in western Europe
left and right for we can say some of it. He's on him for sure. Whatever it is, he has not helped the situation, particularly in.
His very divisive figure.
Yeah, particularly, and I think how he handled let's move to Ukraine. Yeah, it feels as if, let me ask you, this is Trump going to be fine if the Europeans take the lead in helping the Ukrainians. And does he just sort of has he given up on Putin? Because I get the sense he's thinking about giving up on Putin.
I mean, yeah, but you probably would have had that sense occasionally on several occasions over the last six months. Right, He's he's kind of moved in that direction, and then he backs off. He does ready to hit the Ukrainians again because they're weak and see if you can get more out of them. He wants to end the war. He's failed to end the war. It's mostly because the Russians are giving him nothing. He's put a little bit of pressure on Russia, but far more pressure on the Ukrainians.
But the interesting thing is that the Europeans are now spending all the money. So for Trump to cut off Ukraine, well, that would have to tell the America can military industrial complex,
¶ Far right in Germany will do well in elections
you are no longer allowed to sell weapons to the Europeans.
Well wait a minute, but intelligence sharing, intelligence sharing still happening, right, yeah, yeah, But I mean if that were cut off, that would be a big deal.
Not as small it would it would absolutely it is less of a complete game changer than having the ammunition and having the missiles and all the rest. But the reality is that the United States is going to continue
¶ Does China take Taiwan in 2027 & does Trump stand in the way?
to provide those weapons. They're going to continue to allow the Europeans to buy them and transfer them to Ukraine, and that allows the Ukrainians to continue to fight. And that's a pretty big deal. So the Americans are going to continue to be complicit, fully complicit in Ukraine's defense, and as long as that is true, you can't really have a US Russia deal. So Trump has kind of been cut off by the Europeans. The Europeans have bought
themselves a seat at the table. They bought themselves a veto on Trump's ability to drive full capitulation of the Ukrainians, and that forces Trump to squeeze the Russians a little bit more if he wants to try to get a ceasefire, like he has on telling the Indians to stop buying Russian oil or else there won't be a US India trade deal. And Mukesh Ambani in reliance just stopped buying
Russian crude in the last few weeks for example. So it's it's meaningful, it's it's causing some some pain to the Russians.
What's some you know, we've we've there's been a lot of speculation that that that the longer this war goes, that eventually it would create internal descent in Russia. In Russia, you know, you hear anecdotal we'll see a report here or there. One would assume that now more people know somebody killed in this war than they did yesterday, day
and the day before, et cetera. Yeah, what's your sense in your sources of sort of of of the level of discouragement in the Russian populace over this war not.
Seeing anything meaningful. I mean, we've seen a couple of saw one former general that came out publicly and talked about what a kind of disaster this was. The sort of thing that you hear some people say internally but never publicly. That was a little surprising some of the bloggers who are quite patriotic talking about the fact that the Russian military is not performing as well as it should for examples a little that.
Yeah, there's sometimes more criticism from his right, you haven't been strong enough, you haven't been aggressive enough.
Yeah, yeah, but within the population not so much. Now the economy I think less about the Russians that are getting killed, although there are a lot of them. They're not from Moscow, they're not from Petersburg. They're from you know, sort of areas that are going to cause much less trouble, and they're prisoners.
That's that was obviously done on purpose, right, he doesn't want people at Moscow or Saint Petersburg to get first time glimpses of But I do.
Think the Russian economy is starting to take more of a hit as a consequence of low oil prices and the squeeze from all of these sanctions, especially the energy sanctions.
So it does. I do think it matters, But I also think that ultimately the Ukrainians are having a harder time of it in terms of maintaining this level of fighting, and I think that the Europeans are having a harder time if we look over the next two three years, the fact that everything you've asked me about Greenland, everything
we've talked about America squeezing the Europeans as well. If you're Putin, if I'm advising Putin, I'm telling him double down on pressure in Europe because you concause maybe your big crag, Yeah, you might be able to crack.
Well, that's an interesting is there? Who of our By the.
Way, I'm sorry, but I've got I'm going to have to go in like four minutes.
Just okay, all right, let me get you out of here. On two questions. Question one is this, who's the most secure leader in Europe right now? In the sort of the western part of your you know, the sort of the G seven allies?
The most secure? I mean in the Italian Maloney is probably the most popular among the major economies right now, and France seems like it's a mess. Italian governments used to fall apart every few months.
Right now, that's that the French National Assembly says, hey, we hold our champagne, We'll do this now.
Yeah, I mean the Macron's not going anywhere because the general elections are twenty twenty seven. Everyone's going to wait for that. But they've been you know, governments that they've had, like multiple prime ministers that mess. Yeah, yeah, I mean Germany is I guess you'd say Germany is more stable because you know, grand coalition multi party system. Understand they benefit from the EU, and yet the parties in that system disagree on so much that it's become very dysfunctional.
And as the German economy continues to underperform, the AfD on the right and dur Linka on the left continue to do quite well. This year they're going to be five state elections in Germany. I expect the far right is going to do very well. So, I mean, there's no great answer for that question, is what I'm telling you.
All right, And one year from now is going to be twenty twenty seven, and.
The Greece is probably the country that's doing the best because they've had post Grexit, they've had great, great, strong government.
It's fascinating to see the southern European countries have an economic boom after having such a disaster and have to be built out by the Germans. Yeah, back in that long ago, very quickly. Next year is supposed to be the year that China takes Taiwan. Where are we at? What is your expectation and do you expect Donald Trump to stand in the way.
I think that the Chinese and the Americans have both understand that a level of stabilization of that relationship is good for them after the big fights that they had on tariffs and export controls and licensing last year. And I think that means that Chinese understand that an invasion of Taiwan would be really, really bad. If Americans are screwing up in so many areas long term, don't get in their way and you know, make hay in other places.
So I could see the Chinese testing Taiwan on certain issues like bigger exercises and maybe a coastguard boarding a ship, you know sort of thing, maybe some political and economic pressure, but not that's very different from an invasion. Nothing that would be an action enforcing event or an embarrassment for the US administration.
But if we're embracing sphere of influence in the Western hemisphere, how is that? How does Beijing not see that as a right?
I mean we're on the one hand, we are. On the one hand, the Western Hemisphere is not the limit of American ambitions in the world. It is a prioritization. On the other hand, American military dominance in the Western Hemisphere does not relate easily with Chinese commercial dominance with most of the countries outside of the US and Canada and Mexico, and that's not going to change anytime soon. So I think the sphere of influence argument is overstated.
Ian bremer Man, I always appreciate this steward to force that.
Thanks a lot of fun to do. Let me do.
I love traveling the world with you. Who knows someday we met actually do it in person. Good luck in Davos. It'd be a lot of my fun on jeeus. The fact that Trump goes to Davos is that clearly that an American president goes.
Oh well, I mean the sense that the Americans are going to be meeting with so many different leaders around the world. The communication is good, but if you watch how the how the heads of state and how the CEOs comport themselves publicly with him, it is very different from the way they talk privately. And that is a big part of the problem.
Oh well, that's why we have you and your tremendous newsletter that is available for free. Even it's it's tremendous G zero. Uh and boy you have said we live in a G zero world. Yeah, well we're there now. Congrats, now we are there now.
Thanks Chuck, good brother.