Interview Only w/ Gene Sperling - What Biden Got Right & The Fight For Economic Dignity - podcast episode cover

Interview Only w/ Gene Sperling - What Biden Got Right & The Fight For Economic Dignity

Feb 16, 20261 hr 14 min
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Episode description

Gene Sperling — the only person to serve as Director of the National Economic Council under two presidents (Clinton and Obama), a senior advisor to President Biden who oversaw the American Rescue Plan, and a consultant and co-writer on NBC's The West Wing — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation. Sperling shares the wild story of how he ended up in Santa Monica, his brush with Aaron Sorkin's legal troubles, and his insider take on how real Washington compares to its fictional portrayals. The conversation then turns to Sperling's deep expertise on the economy, from his defense of the Biden administration's "soft landing" amid global post-Covid inflation to the political lessons of how rising prices have sunk presidencies on both sides of the aisle — including Biden's own re-election bid.

The back half of the episode looks squarely at the future. Sperling, who says he's unlikely to serve in another Democratic administration, offers a forceful argument about what comes next: the rising threat of unchecked corporate and tech power, the urgent need for AI policy that puts working people first, and the lessons of globalization that policymakers can't afford to repeat. Drawing on themes from his book Economic Dignity, he makes the case that Americans are hungry for leaders who pair optimism with a real confrontation of economic injustice — and warns that a handful of AI and crypto companies, flush with lobbying dollars, could end up shaping the structure of the economy if left unchallenged.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Gene Sperling joins the Chuck Toddcast

02:00 The wild story of how Gene ended up in Santa Monica

03:15 Aaron Sorkin couldn’t meet with Gene due to legal trouble

06:15 Real politics/news look nothing like “West Wing” or “The Newsroom”

07:30 The one truism about the West Wing is good people trying to do good

09:15 Politics is NOT like House of Cards

10:45 West Wing still remains viable, any chance of a reboot?

12:00 What’s the state of the economy? What do you look for?

12:45 Biden economy was strong growth, but high inflation

13:30 Biden achieved the “soft landing” they were trying for

14:45 Inflation was global and mostly due to Covid supply chain shocks

16:15 The American Rescue Plan had many positive effects

17:15 Every head of state poured money into economies during Covid

18:15 Covid was going to result in either inflation or recession

20:00 Obama couldn’t pass enough stimulus during Great Recession

21:00 A little extra stimulus can help offset future unknowns

21:45 Millennials’ future was permanently damaged by Great Recession

23:00 A generation had never seen high inflation until Covid

24:00 Anger over inflation sunk Biden’s re-election

25:00 Inflation is bipartisan, took down 3 different presidents

26:00 Inflation affects everyone, jobs & unemployment don’t

27:15 Every head of state suffered politically post pandemic

29:15 Will Biden baggage sink Pete Buttigieg, or is that overstated?

31:00 Biden’s conflict was empathy for suffering vs touting achievements

33:15 Biden had the tiniest of margins to pass major legislation

34:30 Gene is unlikely to work in a future Democratic administration

35:15 Pitchforks are being sharpened for corporations and big tech

36:00 Will worker rage fuel the next election?

37:00 Presidents that do well offer optimism, but confront economic injustice

38:30 People don’t want to feel like they are being extracted for profits

40:30 AI growth can’t come at the expense of working people

42:00 AI policy should be shaped around improving conditions for people

43:15 What lessons from globalization can be used to alleviate AI disruption?

45:00 Clinton believed in robust response to globalization

46:00 Clinton couldn’t implement strong safety net after losing congress

47:45 You have to have policies where people don’t feel left behind

49:30 We need to create and fund jobs that create dignity

50:15 We need to create an economic dignity floor for all Americans

52:15 When is a company too big to regulate?

54:30 If companies are disproportionately determining policies, they’re too big

55:15 Crypto & AI are getting what they want from huge lobbying money

56:00 A handful of AI companies could determine structure of the economy

58:15 The Trump White House has invited corporate influence

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Gene Sperling joins the Chuck Toddcast

Speaker 1

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is hard to find good gluten free bread. It is fantastic. They give you step by step instructions. I really dig this. There is nothing like having an artesion bakery in your freezer to chase away the winter chill. Now is the best time to stay in and enjoy some comforting homemade meals with Wildgrain. I obviously highly recommend it. It is worth giving Wildgrain to try. Right now. Wildgrain is offering my listeners thirty dollars off your first box plus free

croyissants for life. Come on when you go to wildgrain dot com slash podcast to start your subscription today. That's thirty dollars off your first box and free croissants for life when you visit wildgrain dot com, slash podcast, or simply use the promo code podcast at checkout. This is a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. So my guest today is a man who's quite literally been in the room where it happens on and off for over three decades of American economic He is the only

The wild story of how Gene ended up in Santa Monica

person to serve as a director of the National Economic Council under two different presidents, Bill Clint and Barack Obama, and most recently served as the White House coordinator for the American Rescue Plan for President Biden. I'll ask him what he did as a child staffer for Jimmy Carter's presidency. So she's worked for every Democratic presidency in my adult lifetime. It is Gene Sperling, and what I have him on today is actually he's got a new gig these days.

He's the founder and executive director of what is dubbed the Economic Dignity Lab at Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy. Look, Gene is a think tanker who's actually been a practical government's servant as well. Sometimes you get your think tankers who throw out white papers and ideas, and you get your government servants who take those white paper and ideas well.

Jean's kind of been on both sides of it and is one of the few people I know that while he's wonky, he also understands campaign politics and that is a unique breed of individual because it's not an easy thing to find. And you know, he's got the quirky

Aaron Sorkin couldn't meet with Gene due to legal trouble

sense of humor like I like I do, and like I like. So, mister Sperlin, good to see.

Speaker 2

You, Thank you, Chack, thanks for having me.

Speaker 1

In fact, I have to say I didn't know this story. I was asking this. You know, why he's coming to us from California and I'm here going I just think of Gene as a d c's DC guy, and I'm going to make you quickly tell this just the shortened version of the story. You're an Angelino because of a fun little Hollywood meets politics meets real life meets your personal life. Tell us about it.

Speaker 2

Yeah, well, you you know, you could have said I've worked for four presidents, because I had four years where I was a consultant or part time writer for Jed Bartlett, the president on the NBC TV show The West Wing. But yes, the fact I'm coming from you in Santa Monica or that seems to be my main residence right now, does not feel comfortable to me. I grew up in ann Arbor, Michigan. We only came to La twice in my youth, and both times was to watch Michigan lose

to Southern cal in the road. And so when people ask me where I'm from, it's ann Arbor. When they ask me where I've worked, it's Washington, d C. So it's very hard for me to kind of acknowledge that I just happened to be here. But the story was is that when I got done with Clinton, I'd gotten to know some of the people on the TV show West Wing. I really dug in. I worked on a really good story and I sent it in and they

asked me to do an interview. I went out to LA and it just happened to be Hey, where Aaron Sorkin couldn't meet with me because he had a little legal trouble in an airport. But they set up a meeting for me with all the writers in the commissary. It's very exciting. You walk in. There's guys from Er walking around.

Speaker 1

Now it is the old The studio commissaries truly are Star Wars bar scenes. You never know who you're gonna run into.

Speaker 2

Yeah, just going through at the beginning, through the gate, you think of blazing saddles and them crashing through. So I go there. I introduced myself. First person on the left is name Alison Abner. She's just starting her second year writing for the West Wing, and I say hello,

and what the heck? We got married. We've been together twenty five years, so I've been you know, I've been a bicoastal you know, spouse, and that means we've probably lived about a third of the time in DC, a third of the time in Santa Monica and a third of the time, including the entire Biden White House, I commuted back and forth every single week, even more than a California member of Congress.

Real politics/news look nothing like "West Wing" or "The Newsroom"

Speaker 1

Would you are it allows you mess? Uh? You know, you know, I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing about showing off in a life. If you've hit all these great statuses on airplanes, it means you're never at home.

Speaker 2

No, you know. For me, what it's about is I work like crazy on planes so that every moment I'm home, I can be with my family. So I'd say the only time this whole thing was unbelievably painful was my third year with President Obama. My wife had gone back to start restarter her TV writing career. My son graduated from high school, and I had about ten months where I was commuting back and forth, and my daughter was like seven or eight, and I used to get in

the car and just cry sometimes. But this last time, thanks to zoom and other things I didn't have, you know, you could kind of be half there, half here. And my daughter was sixteen seventeen and eighteen, and everybody knows at sixteen seventeen and eighteen. They're not dying for you to be there in their face every single night. So if that part was okay.

The one truism about the West Wing is good people trying to do good

Speaker 1

Let me I want to dispense with one thing about West Wind. I have been people always assume I love the show, and I always say, you know what, I've never I've never watched a full season, and let me tell you why, gee, and you can tell me and tell me why I'm wrong, because I know you're going to be a defender, and I mean this, It's not as if I've seen quite a few episodes and they're really good and they're really interesting. Don't get me wrong,

but I always found him more unrealistic than realistic. And what I always hated was when people say, why can't it be done like it was on West Wing? And I'm like, because west Wing was never you know, and

I've had this argument. I've actually I got arguments a wrong word, a strong word, A debate with mister Sorkin where because he did it with Newsroom too, where he's creating a utopia of what could be if you had a year to prepare for every news cycle, for instance in Newsroom, or you had five years of historical context to then figure out how to have done it. So and perhaps I'm like too jaded because I'm old hotline guy.

Speaker 2

Right, you're too jaded because you're old hotline.

Speaker 1

I understand that. Tell me make the best case for somebody today of why West Wing actually is emblematic of how governing works well.

Speaker 2

Listen, It's hard for me to think about the current White House and how it functions well, but I would say that if that for looked at the last couple administrations and the years of Republican administrations before that, I really do feel that there is a core truth in the West Wing, which that the people there who are

Politics is NOT like House of Cards

there are privileged to be there, really are there to do good for the world, but they're in a very highly toxic and political environment. And so I think the way that West Wing is more realistic than some of the other you know, Scandal and other shows out there, is that those shows tend to show people who are only there to self deal to corrupt things. And I think what the West Wing did show was a group of people who were trying to do something idealistic, but

they're in a very very political environment. And if you're not political political and you don't deal with those issues you don't do well. I think what makes me sad a little bit is I spent a long time telling people that that's the way white Houses really were. I'm not quite so sure that the West Wing is an accurate perception of the current White House.

Speaker 1

West Wing or Veep, who portrays staffers best.

Speaker 2

Well, I liked Veep too because I think Veep. I mean, of course, in Veep, nobody's really a good guy, but it's meant as a satire.

Speaker 1

It's meant I guess, I mean.

Speaker 2

It's showing the real conflicts people are dealing with from a kind of cynical point of view. But I still

West Wing still remains viable, any chance of a reboot?

really enjoyed that. I enjoyed the other shows too. I just used to not like when people would kind of think that that was more realistic than the West Wing.

Speaker 1

Well, I hate when people say politics is like house of cards.

Speaker 2

I'm like, no, it's stop.

Speaker 1

Right, Like, I'm like stop, that is not and that would so that's where I always get I you know, I would vacinate that. Then then again, like you know, I can watch a few Good Men two thousand times, and I probably watched it two thousand times, So it's not that I don't love a good. Aaron Sorkin script, that's for sure. I mean, the man is a genius television writer. There's no doubt about it.

Speaker 2

When it comes to dialogue, all right, whenever I see Aaron, he's he asked me how how my wife Allison is doing? And I say, we're still together. And he says the two lasting things of the West Wing residual checks and gene and Allison's marriage.

Speaker 1

By the way, right when HBO Max was going to get rid of it, there was like an uproar and it reminded people, so it kept the checks coming, right.

Speaker 2

It really is. One thing I really will say is the number of people who I've seen actually go into public service. I mean, famously Cody Keenan.

What's the state of the economy? What do you look for?

Speaker 1

Who well, you're right, who watched it in it like inspired them to do it.

Speaker 2

Yeah, yeah, And I think, you know, I don't think it was a TV show for me, but I think you would see, you know, I'd see people huddled around RFK when I was a kid in sixty eight, and you know, I think sometimes you know that perception that that's something positive, that you can do good things, that you don't have to be the candidate to make a difference,

and help people's lives or fight for justice. I think it's a positive thing and it's still pretty influential on a lot of college campuses around the country.

Speaker 1

Right, it has had a lot of staying power. Have you how serious have reboots been thrown around?

Biden economy was strong growth, but high inflation

Speaker 2

I think it's more people toying with people. I mean, you know, I stay in touch with Brad Whitford in Delay Hill, and I did run in and I get to see Aaron Sorkin and Martin when we did a twenty fifth anniversary celebration at the White House. But I think there was once where I kind of was like, hey, guys, if this happens and I'm out of government, remember me. And I kind of got the word back. Now we're we're just toying with you, but we'll see.

Speaker 1

Before I get to what you're working on. Because I think, look, I think and we've been I think we were in a room together not too long ago. I think AI

Biden achieved the "soft landing" they were trying for

job displacement is going to drive political debates fear of AI job displacement over the next decade. Whether it hits is another story. Right, there's the fear of it and then there's the actual fear is going to drive a lot of political particularly in twenty twenty eight. So I want to get to that. But before we get to that,

what's the state of the economy. What do you look at on a week to week basis to give your bit to what touchstones do you look at to determine whether this is a good economy, a bad economy, or a shaky economy.

Speaker 2

So I think there's moments where you pretty much know what you're looking for. Things are pretty clear, even if you don't know what the exact narrative how it's going to turn out, you know what the narrative is. This

is a little bit of a tricky time. I think that what you were looking for after the kind of worst of the post pandemic supply chain shocks and global inflation was you were looking for what everybody called the soft landing, and what that meant was that we would be able to return to more of a normal, stable economy. So the Biden economy had amazing job growth, incredibly low unemployment,

Inflation was global and mostly due to Covid supply chain shocks

but there was also high inflation. And you know, people will fight forever, people like myself will say it was global, it was every where. It didn't wasn't really a factor of Biden policies. But whatever you thought the cause was, people wanted to see that soft landing. So what's interesting is that you've had pretty close to what people hope for.

So when you had high inflation, you can remember that Larry Summers famously said, Oh, the only way you're going to bring this down is to have ten percent unemployment or two years of seven and a half percent unemployment or five years of six percent. Well that didn't happen. So the good news was that we've been able to so far avoid a you know, avoid caming inflation inflation only in a Paul Voker sense of well, I was.

Speaker 1

Just gonna say, let me let let's put a pause before you jump to that part. Doesn't this reinforce not a belief anymore? But is this now a confirmation that this was essentially COVID related, COVID inspired, COVID driven, and because we had the artificial stoppage and then and then

The American Rescue Plan had many positive effects

suddenly it's sort of like kinking a hose and then I'm kicking it and a surge of product and a surge of money, and a surge of this. You know, as fast as it went up is as fast as it went down. The fact that it didn't take ten percent interest rates and it didn't take ten percent unemployment. Is that now confirmation for you that this was global and ninety five percent COVID?

Speaker 2

I think for me it is. I think it is for a lot of people. I think it's hard to have, you know, this easy objective conversation because one, there's so much politics involved, and you know, there's such a desire for the current administration to blame the last administration. There's so many people on the Democratic side that are just disappointed that Joe Biden lost and that people ignored people were so unhappy about prices. So there's so much political debate.

Every head of state poured money into economies during Covid

But you know, I do think that for a lot of people, I cited an article Mark Zandy from Moody's, Peter orzag Our, former O and B director, and others who definitely feel that the fact that this came down without engineering a recession was evidence that this was overall globally inspired, pandemic related supply shot chain that said people will still debate the American rescue plan, and I don't think there's I think politically you'll hear Republicans now say,

oh my god, everything that happened you know bad was due to Joe biden American Rescue Plant. That's clearly not true. Clearly, the American Rescue Plan had some very good effects in making US the leader and growth in the G seven, lower, unemployment less scarring long term negative impacts. But people will

Covid was going to result in either inflation or recession

debate the inflation impact, and I think that the reasonable debate says, hey, maybe it led to inflation here being a point or a point half higher than it would have been, but it had these good parts. And I'd say the people who are most critical would say, no, it's more like three points higher. But I think you and I both know that in twenty twenty two, after Putin invaded Ukraine, you know, inflation almost everywhere in the world was seven eight nine percent, regardless of whether people

had done a major fiscal stimulus. And you also saw every head of state did poorly everywhere in the world.

Speaker 1

Now, that could be an antim.

Speaker 2

A reincumbent, you know, an incumbent in that setting, but you know, for me, I think it is you know, I think the fact that inflation went up everywhere and the way it came down, you know, it does confirm that this was not fundamentally about fiscal policy. But about the pandemic. But again, to be fair to some of the people who disagree with me, they would say, you know, it's a more nuanced analysis.

Speaker 1

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code toodcast. Don't forget that code. That's get sold dot Com promo code toodcast for thirty percent off fifty years from now. In an economics class, that might look at a couple of case studies about what you do in a in an economic crisis. Either one that's directly about the economy, like what we had with the housing crisis and the Great Recession, or something like COVID which sort of impacted the global economy. One of the things that my simple hot take has always been, we had two

choices with COVID. We either had inflation or recession, and

A generation had never seen high inflation until Covid

if we didn't throw money, If we had handled COVID the way we'd handled the housing crisis, which is to be fiscally a bit small sea conservative about how much money we threw at the issue, we probably prevent inflation, but we might have had a massive recession. The less I've always felt is if that COVID, coming just within a decade of the Great Recession, sort of got everybody thinking, hey, we better if we're not sure, throw a little bit

more money at it. Let's not underfund, let's overfund. Do you think fifty years from now, That's how we'll look at those two events. And it's sort of when it comes to government intervention, the economic crisis, the Great Recession will always be seen as an example of government not doing enough, and COVID will be seeing as an example

of when government does a little too much. I know I'm being very I'm asking for a black and white hot take on something that be incredibly it's generally speaking, I've.

Anger over inflation sunk Biden's re-election

Speaker 2

Actually written on this exact topic. I wrote in the Wall Street Journal a while ago on the lessons learned argument. And I think people will debate this. I think that there's kind of a will be you know. I think some people will make it a more simple argument of you know, but even then there's a question of lessons learned or lessons overlearned. So the lessons over learned argument was one you did too little in the financial crisis. I don't think by the way that was by intent

by President Obama as someone there. I just think you couldn't get it, couldn't get to politically.

Speaker 1

Look by the way in fairness politically it will I mean, you couldn't cross that that number. It had to be under.

Speaker 2

A true exactly. You know. There was sometimes people think there was just debate, but I do that there was

Inflation is bipartisan, took down 3 different presidents

also a sense in two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine that if you were wrong, maybe you could come back and get more. And I think one of the lessons that was learned there was, hey, you may only get one shot, so you might go bigger because you may not get another shot. Two is the insurance policy. Other things might happen, like who would have predicted Putin was going to invade Ukraine. As you remember, in the financial crisis, there was the Greece in eure a financial crisis.

So another argument is put a little extra because there might be unknowns that are going to slow you down even more. One lesson I really think we learned well was that when you don't do enough right away, there's a lot of long term suffering that takes place, long

Inflation affects everyone, jobs & unemployment don't

term unemployment, young people who couldn't get into the job market for four or five years. Economists actually have a phrase that makes sense. They call it scarring, and it's right. What it means is they didn't These people didn't just suffer for a year or two. Their lifetime earnings were changed. Their rates of divorce and alcoholism and suicide or deaths

of despair were changed. So one good lesson learned was that in this financial crisis you had a lot of strength right away and so you didn't get the long term unemployment. We had a policy that actually prevented millions of people from being evicted. So I think on the whole the argument will be that the American Rescue Plan did properly learn the lessons. The counter will be, well, but maybe you overlearned by doing a little bit too much.

And that's the people who will argue that the American Rescue Plan, even if it wasn't the cause of all the inflation or even most of inflation, kind of added to it. And that's where I think you will continue to have the debates where people like myself will say,

Every head of state suffered politically post pandemic

and probably Jared Bernstein would say, and Peter orzagnersay, didn't have that much, but my friend Jason Furman would say, you know, you should have done a bit more. I do think what will happen going forward, Chuck, from now on is that I do think you had an entire generation of people who had never seen significant inflation. And so I'm not.

Speaker 1

Sorry, that's one hundred percent right. Like I you know, I would sit there and say, I had a memory of my of my parents excited when interest rates got from win from double digits to single digits. So I had at least remembered that era and of the era of the late seventies and early eighties, and it did. I mean, we were one of those working class families that we couldn't afford a house until the interest rates finally got to I think it was just under nine percent,

and we could finally get into a house exactly. That was a big deal.

Speaker 2

Four. When Reagan runs on mourning in America, things really aren't very good inflation.

Speaker 1

They were better than they were.

Speaker 2

That's the key it had. People remembered things being bad for so long that when it improved, Reagan got lots of credit. And what hurt President Biden is that even when inflation came down, people still remembered beef and milk and cheese and eggs being lower. And so I do think that even though I don't believe the American Rescue Plan was the cause of most or even the significant amount of the inflation, do I think that next time around people will think about it more, or worry a

little bit, or do the balance more. Yes, because they've now lived through a world where they saw President Biden do what you and I would have predicted would have been a winning hand going into twenty four, which was inflation coming down under three percent, record low unemployment, and

Will Biden baggage sink Pete Buttigieg, or is that overstated?

all of those things were dwarfed by people's unhappiness with everyday prices that they went to the grocery store and saw and that is both a politic that's an economic lesson, but it's also going to be a political lesson for I think a generation.

Speaker 1

I mean, what the seventies taught me and especially now looking in hindsight, is that inflation is nonpartisan, or inflation is bipartisan, however you want to say it. In this respect, inflation took down three presidents, Right, Richard Nixon loses support among Republicans. People always forget this. If the economy is better, Nixon fights harder and Republicans probably fight on his behalf and maybe, but you know, the bad economy was was a secret sauce in that that made it easier to

dump him. Forward. Look at the end of the day, right, you know, whip inflation now that terrible you know slogan he had wi n win Whip inflation Now that didn't work. And then Carter you know, one because of it and then immediately lost because of it. So the point is is that it was a reminder that the American public just focuses on what's in front of them, not what not always what what was, it's what is, and inflation is one of those what is or the other.

Speaker 2

Thing too is that if you're preventing, if you have greater job growth, lower unemployment, those things are good and important. They don't affect everybody, you know, the inflation does. Now. One thing you and I did know politically was we did know that gas prices have a disproportionate impact on presidential approval.

Speaker 1

Well that and that also is a scar from the

Biden's conflict was empathy for suffering vs touting achievements

seventies and gas lines and I mean, my those are bright memories for me, right, but I think what.

Speaker 2

Was learned in twenty three and twenty four was that it's not gas prices per se, it's everyday prices that somebody is confronted with on a week by week basis. And so even though inflation's coming down, even though the job market is good, people are going through the grocery line or the gas line and they're not happy. And that's hitting a much wider number of people. And the other thing that's interesting is, I mean you could say it's American, but you could also say we learned its global.

You can't name one incumbent head of state in the post pandemic period that did very well, not a single one. And so you know, I think I think it's an unusual combination of inflation all the strains of the pandemic, but it's kind of you know, one thing you can't do is say if only Joe Biden had done like incumbent x or Y had done. There are no ones. So that again does suggest that the kind of unhappiness

of people dealing with everyday price is going higher. And it's what makes things so puzzling about President Trump is that he now has seen all these things happen. He's learned this lesson. He's got the benefit of hindsight, and this is a point people never make, but they need to when he comes in. Not only is inflation a little under three percent, every major forecaster in the country is projecting it's going down to two percent. So I think a lot of people on like the Bien Economic team,

are like, boy, bad luck for us. Our soft landing is on its way, and it's going to land because of the hard work we did.

Speaker 1

With President time in a row that Trump inherit's a healing economy from a democratic president, right.

Speaker 2

I know. And then he goes out of his way to ignore every political lesson and put tariffs on everyday products.

Biden had the tiniest of margins to pass major legislation

So That's why I've said before. You know, when they say it's the Biden economy, I say, no, it's the self inflicted wound economy. You could have just done nothing and coasted on the Biden economy. You've gone out of your way to keep inflation not just higher, but in a lot of those everyday products. That makes people so unhappy.

Speaker 1

There is I'm curious your take on whether it is. I'm sure you don't think it's fair that service for the in the Biden white House might be seen as a demerit if you run for president. But what do you make of this issue for Pete Budet?

Speaker 2

Well, you know, I think, yeah, I think it's a long ways to go. And you know, I'm like you, I'm an addict, so I a political you know, I'm as much of a so I follow it. But I think it's a long ways a way. I do think that I do think that that people are you know, I think the debate that happened in the Biden White House and where some of us might have different views,

Gene is unlikely to work in a future Democratic administration

has been greatly exaggerated. It's as if like President Biden didn't care about affordability. Of course he was running, you know, He was the one who did the prescription drugs, you know, bring down prescription drugs and key things. He was the one focusing on lowering electricity and energy prices. Our whole we had a major childcare initiative, which, even as you saw with may Or Mundami, one of the key issues. So I think people are wrong to think there wasn't

affordability focus. I think what it really came down to, and maybe where I sometimes had a little bit of a different view, was that I did get my political upbringing with Bill Clinton. And Bill Clinton was known as

Pitchforks are being sharpened for corporations and big tech

the feel you're paying guy, and there's truth to that. Bill Clinton told me in my first few months in the White House when I was writing the statements from him, he said, never write a statement that wouldn't seem right to somebody in one of the thirty worst economic counties. That so, in other words, stay connected and touched first. I think what happened with Biden was there was a conflict between that and the saying, hey, if you don't put forward your best foot, nobody would so wrong.

Speaker 1

It was the wrong lesson learned from Trump. I think there's a there's a there's a it's interesting you say

Will worker rage fuel the next election?

that there's a chunk of Democrats who think, hey, the lesson to learn from Trump is bullshit, like he does.

Speaker 2

No, I think, you know, look, I'm very I defend a lot of the things we've done, and I realized things are hard choices. I do think we probably could have done a better job of starting by recognizing people's unhappiness and then try to and then connecting, try to explain why we're doing things to do better. But I will say, Chuck that you know, at the time, there were lots of smart political people who were saying, why aren't you guys bragging about record job growth enough? Why

aren't you bragging if the president doesn't do that? So I will say, but I will agree that I think we could have maybe focused more on first, you know, connect, Hey,

Presidents that do well offer optimism, but confront economic injustice

we're not happy prices are up. Explain to people that we're doing everything we can explain why we want to pass. But start more from the basis of a little bit of Clintonian feel your pain. But I don't think that should be confused with the idea that Joe Biden wasn't out there fighting for a child tax credit, which gave people a few thousand dollars more in their pocket, fighting

for lower healthcare costs. I think criticisms of like, you know, I think people who want to show their new and change oriented are going to probably pick some holes at Biden alum in the primaries. That's kind of basic politics. But I think in the end people will have a time chance to say what they could do and what they could and the truth was, Joe Biden had the tiniest of margins. So like on a Biparson infrastructure bill.

Speaker 1

I mean, imagine what imagine what your job would have been like had it been a Republican Senate with a Democratic House, which was the most likely scenario before the Georgia Rubbins. No.

Speaker 2

So we got a lot of good things done, but when those things got done, you couldn't always do them exactly like you want, So you couldn't like necessarily get everything out the door as fast as you wanted or things like that. But you know, again, we've got a lot there's gonna be a lot of primary candidates. They're

People don't want to feel like they are being extracted for profits

going to take a lot of shots at each other. I tend to like and know most of the people that people are talking about, So I'm looking at people I basically admire and I'm kind of like sitting back and kind of watching like I'm Chuck Todd, wanting to see who's good, who's effective.

Speaker 1

Well, the most likely what's the most likely scenario of one of them? When's the presidency? Jean Spurley's going to go work for.

Speaker 2

I will say that from a family perspective, for me to go out with that would be both you know, from a human perspective, would be arrogant to suggest that you know somebody would want you again, and from a family perspective forecasting that would probably not do well for me. Right now, we're focused on the upsides of not being in the government.

Speaker 1

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AI growth can't come at the expense of working people

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AI policy should be shaped around improving conditions for people

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You're one of the few people who understands economists speak and sort of Americans speak, right, which is why I think you've been a popular staffer to bring in for presidents, because you're just you're not just thinking like an economist and a data guy, but sort of you're able to fuse it with sort of realistic, realistic policy that you can sell. Right. There's one thing about proposing policy, but it's policy you can actually sell to the public. I

think the pitchforks are being sharpened. There's definitely distrust and

What lessons from globalization can be used to alleviate AI disruption?

anger at sort of corporate America generally and the biggest companies specifically AI. Job displacement's probably going to fuel this even more it is. Is it inevitable that just becomes just some sort of anger driven political movement, or is there a chance for somebody to, you know, for this not to end up down that road, Like I think it's we're inevitably going to go there. We're gonna have

to have this moment that we end up there. Maybe it's a little bit like the first part of the twentieth century, but there really is sort of almost a revolt against some of these folks here because of the frustrations, and it will be this sort of white collar blue collar a mix. But maybe I'm wrong, and maybe AI is more like what you know, computers in everyday life turned into increased productivity and all boats rows.

Speaker 2

So you know, I've never been somebody you know who like starts running to a camp, you know, when I see, you know, like with a policy tribe, because I often don't think that it's helpful in finding what's good economic policy or even what's good economic message to think like you have to be in a single camp or the other.

So of course I run into people who feel like, oh my god, everything we need does has to sound kind of quote centrist or practical, and then other side who are saying no, every single thing needs to be populist anger, I don't know that the world looks like that.

Clinton believed in robust response to globalization

I would say that to me, You've got to do maybe two things together, which is one, you do need to be an optimist about people's lives. You do need to show that you want to see more people meet the American dream, not just tread water, but get ahead and maybe own a house, have a little nest stake for their retirement. You need that optimism and positive view. And I do think that presidents who've done well have

done that and so. But on the other hand, I don't think you can hold back when there's clear economic injustice. I don't know that Americans are, you know, have a I'm against you know, business or corporate America. I think they understand that that's where a lot of jobs and growth come. But they are against when they think the

Clinton couldn't implement strong safety net after losing congress

system is rigged, or when a bottom line that affects a chosen few is doing is more important than your lives and your struggle. So I think you need to I think what we need is to have a degree of optimism that we are the ones who can be good for the economy. We are the ones that can help you get ahead, and that doesn't mean being down

on everybody who's a major job creator. But on the other hand, people don't believe people who believe in markets and capitalism, which I think is most Americans still believe that the ultimate purpose of what they do is not big bonuses for the CEO or just extracting profits for shareholders. They think, as I've written about in my book in the past and now, they think that the ultimate goal, rightly is does it benefit typical people? Does it provide

economic dignity? And so when they see people doing things that are just about extracting profits from them, when they see a kind of economic policy that is not geared towards creating more jobs, good jobs, jobs with dignity, jobs with respect, then they're going to be angry. And I think it is okay to tap into that anger. And I think it is okay to say I believe in our American market based system, but the goal of that market based system is ultimately the well being and economic

dignity of working families. And if you have a system

You have to have policies where people don't feel left behind

that is rigged to benefit just the few and not typical American families, then yeah, you should be anger angry about that, and nobody running for president in the Democratic side should be hesitant in pressing that anger. And I won't just I'll take a second just to start on the AI if you want. But it's also a good

example of that, you know. I mean, if you listen to people now, you might think, if you're listening to the White House, that well, AI is just going to happen, and maybe it's going to hurt a lot of jobs, and we should preempt states from trying to regulate it in any way, or make sure people have protections of privacy or against abusive surveillance, or to make sure that we're dealing with job dislocation. And the response comes by no, no, no, we have to rush, rush, rush to get more GDP

and greater growth. And I think they will lose people because people will ask the question I've said, but what's the ultimate point if why would we have a policy that's not good for jobs, it's not good for the

typical family. And I think that it's not maybe the front and center issue now, but I think it will be, and I think it will be part of that bigger picture, which is what is the ultimate goal of our economy, and if people think it's just to have some enormous wealth and five or six AI companies and we'll just deal with the effect on job loss and income loss as an after effect. People are going to be angry.

They're going to be rightly angry. And I think people going in twenty eight will do better not to be

We need to create and fund jobs that create dignity

like they're head in the sand about AI or the good things it could do. But people who are going to say, front and center, my goal is you your job, whether your children can be as well off as you are. And when I'm thinking about AI, I'm thinking that about how we shape it to serve average people. Technology is not destiny. Democracy determines our destiny.

Speaker 1

Some of the proposals that are out there about AI job displacement remind me of some of the ideas that you guys attempted to implement during sort of the the

We need to create an economic dignity floor for all Americans

era of the nineties, the free trade era of the nineties, right, And I remember one of the central promises on NAFTA was, you know, when when if factories went away, there'd be there was always you know, there was going to be money there for retraining and job displacement. And the money was there and there was retraining, but it turned out that didn't take right. There were weren't a lot, There weren't as many people interested in some of the retraining

opportunities that were offered. I don't and I'm curious what lessons you take away from that as you think about developing Frank what I assume will potentially be a policy that next a new president may may be influenced by I sort of how to manage this displacement. The displacement's going to happen. And you know, I'm I'm I am you know, I'm a capitalist. You know, I think we just want capitalism with a little bit of guardrails. And in every technology, right, this has been true of the

media business, and it's true of really anything. Right, you get a new technology, there's immediately fragmentation. Maybe you get a thousand startups, and then eventually you get consolidation, and then a new technology comes and the cycle can begin all over again. Globalization, in some ways right, the idea of free trade, which of course the upside was there's not a fruit you can't get any any month of the year in America now, which was not true when you and I were growing up. It was not true

in the eighties and nineties. But that's what free trade has done right in many ways, And that's just it's I always use I like to use produce because it's the simplest example of what free trade has meant. Like you realize that you know, you're you get to eat certain fruits year round now and back in the day you couldn't. But there was certainly right that. Arguably, the the seeds of the Trump victories of sixteen and twenty four were planted with the globalization and free trade movement

of the nineties. So what policies do you now wish

When is a company too big to regulate?

where it implemented better than and what parallels do you see as you think about what AI job displacement and what benefits are necessary to ease that pain.

Speaker 2

So I guess I would disagree with one of your premises, which was that.

Speaker 1

I throw a lot in there. So the fact that you only disagree with one premise maybe is a small victory.

Speaker 2

So, first of all, I think the core issue when you look back on kind of the Clinton agenda was that Bill Clinton came in with the view that you know, there was going to be greater global integration and that we really needed a robust response.

Speaker 1

And so and by the way, you guys, you know, a huge opportunity in from of you, right, we basically the end of the Cold War. This was the peace divoting.

Speaker 2

No, And I think that a lot of what he was trying to do was integrate more of the world to avoid some of the issues we're having now with Russia and China. So there was a big foreign policy element. But the vision was that you would have universal health care, there would be a major universal training program for anybody who lost a job for any reason, and then you would also have significant place based investment in places. And I think what happened with President Clinton was they didn't

get that. We didn't get healthcare, and then we didn't even get to propose our universal training proposal because we lost the Congress for all six years, both houses. So I don't think that we ever got to test out what that we ever got to test out what truly having a robust safety net would be like, I don't think it ever got to be put in place in the way that it might have if Democrats had controlled

both houses for four or six years. So one, I don't think we ever tested two, which is very relevant is that globalization turned out to be much more dramatic than anybody would have thought at the times. And then you had eight years of a Republican administration that wasn't

If companies are disproportionately determining policies, they're too big

really willing to adjust to that or do anything. So I guess i'd say number one, we still have just huge holes in what I think of as an economic dignity net of making sure people are working or doing their best or living lives of economic dignity even in moments of disruption. And I think what globalization showed is that even the there were lots of benefits to the Internet era. And look, it wasn't just trade agreements, it was the Internet, it was globalization. It was just a

smaller world, even though there were benefits to that. You can't have an economy where you say, hey, for sixty

Crypto & AI are getting what they want from huge lobbying money

or seventy percent of you, this is nice because you're getting lower prices and mode choices, but there's like a portion of you that are watching your community spiral down. You're losing your hopes, your dreams, you're watching your father or grandfather become an alcoholic. And so one of the things that I talked about with economic dignity is you have got to have policies that aren't just good for

GDP or don't just lower prices for some people. Generally, you have to have policies where everybody feels they're not being left behind. And you know, I wouldn't put as much blame on anything Bill Clinton did, but I would

A handful of AI companies could determine structure of the economy

say that the accumulation of policies over twenty thirty years did not put in place the type of job creation focused protections, checks on abuse of corporate power that were necessary to make sure everyone has economic dignity for all. So where AI becomes relevant is that globalization was a bigger shock than we might the people might have known, and the holes in our safety net or our insurance of economic dignity for all became more painful. I think

that's how you should look at AI. I don't think AI is just another technology. I think AI is likely to have a greater impact on job disruption and a greater impact on maybe even the reduction of the amount of jobs in the private sector than we've seen before. And so now is the time to me not to sit back and watch and just say, oh my god, tens of millions of jobs are being lost, or react by just having a UBI program that writes checks to people.

Now is the time to start shaping, to make shaping our economy, and to me, I talked about three things and what I wrote as an Economic Dignity Coumpact for AI. One, let's create more dignified jobs where we know we need more, which are helping families with disability, helping people come out of prison, helping people with addiction, helping people coach more people on their healthcare. There may be twenty million missing jobs there that could employ people, have a tighter labor market,

and deal with a lot of dislocation. That's number one. We have the power to do that. We also have the power to create tax incentives and subsidies that encourage a company to augment use AI to augment jobs supplosed to displace jobs or to redeploy people. We control our economic policy. We should be doing that now. Secondly, going to the point I talked about, let's create an economic dignity floor for everyone, so that if there is a

The Trump White House has invited corporate influence

worse disruption than we thought, unlike what happened in communities and globalization, now we're going to have programs that focus on jobs, on helping people find new jobs, of making sure you still have health insurance. And then the third issue, which is going to be the toughest than the one that hits us, is what are those overall policies that

help people move to the next job. I just believe that we are a country where we care about work, we care about contribution, we care about purpose and potential. And what I don't like is that everybody's kind of you know, you've got a White House that's just saying go as fast as you can and geez if it causes lots of disruption, kind of too bad, that that can't be our policy. Our policy going forward must be

AI is going to happen. You can't stop it all, but you can have policies that shape to make sure that it is serving the American people. What is the point of an economy having high growth and high productivity growth if it creates unhappiness for a large portion of the economy. That's the focus I want to do in my Economic Dignity lab is to focus on our goal. What is our ultimate goal? Every day? It's not higher

GDP and productivity growth that makes people unhappy. It's higher growth and productivity growth that leads to more opportunity, more dignity, more upward mobility for more Americans.

Speaker 1

You know, Shared Brown's going to love the fact that you use the word dignity so much. The dignity of work myself.

Speaker 2

I wrote the book twenty twenty. The title is Economic Dignity. So I've got here. It is right here, I copyrighting the word dignity. Take that, Take that, take that, share it. Let me get you out of here on this. When is a company too big to regulate? And when is when do you fear that a company's becomes bigger than a nation state? And what happens there? I mean, like I used to think of this as sort of perverted Bond James Bond plot.

Speaker 1

Lines, and but the fact of the matter is these huge companies are bigger than most nation states. And what does that mean right that they're they're that that's it is different than what we've had. And does our government of a responsibility from preventing that or do you let capitalism be capitalism?

Speaker 2

Well, again, I think it goes back to the tests that we have before. The purpose of structuring our economy is not for the companies themselves. It's not for the CEOs themselves. It's to have an economy that benefits people's lives and gives people more opportunity. So when companies start, when companies get so large or integrated that they I

think there's two things you have to worry about. One, when you don't have true competition, you know, I mean Adam Smith was not writing about a market economy where you know, for big AI or big tech companies controlled everything. It was about how to have competition and why competition would through some form of process he said invisible hand, I'll say a little more notable hand. Make sure that it's benefiting everybody. So one when is that working? The

other way? Now, I know a lot of people aren't always happy with everything Lena Khan did, but I'm more of a fan of hers, and I think that what she did and looking at big Tech and Amazon, was to look and say, in reality, are these large companies suppressing competition and hurting people or are they actually encouraging it? So you should have that test. And then the second

test is a democracy test. If the size and power of companies mean that they are disproportionately determining our policies as opposed to our democratic processes based on what's best for people. Then I think that's the problem.

Speaker 1

So for me, it's not you know, you've been on K Street lately.

Speaker 2

It's not just the size, but what is the impact? And I think the reason.

Speaker 1

How do you say that? I would say arguably right now that the between there are two industries that are over indexed in Washington and they seem to get whatever they want because of how much campaign money they give, and that is the crypto and AI.

Speaker 2

Well, I think there's a lot to be said for that, and I think, look, I think there's always been big companies who use political contributions and lobbying power to get what they want at the benefit at the expense of what might be the common good, and that is a

real problem. I think what's a little more concerning on the AI front, though, is the idea that there could be four or five or six companies that actually are almost determining the structure of the economy, not just benefiting their company at the expense of some higher prices for other people, which is itself very problematic, but where it

looks like they're determining policy. And I do see sometimes when I look at the White House, you know, I do wonder our six or seven companies contributing whispering in the ear. Are you seeing companies, you know, whether it's crypto or AI or other places, actually part of deals that are actually benefiting in a more corrupt way individuals

associated with the administration. That is very concerning. Now, look, some of the heads of these big AI companies have notably gone out and said, we need to think about what's best for the country. But the fact is that when I still look at what's happening every day, it looks like rush fast, hygien growth, high wealth, get things built as quickly as possible, and those discussions about what's best for jobs or people or the economic dignity of

people is being lost. And my prediction is going to what you said at the beginning, is if people don't start talking about how to shape AI so that it is benefiting everyone, they're going to get a backlash that that might be even harsher than is desired.

Speaker 1

So we never do prevent very well so it's.

Speaker 2

Benefiting everyone, and not have this perception that the White House listens to five or six major companies and they not the American people are determining what the what the path of our economic future will be.

Speaker 1

Well, take me back to your time in the Biden White House when these AI companies were looking for more government assistance to excel rate what they were doing. Did you feel like they had a gun to the head, like, well, you know, you either help us out here we're going with the other guys, or I.

Speaker 2

Can't you know, at this time of that life, I wasn't the National Economic consol Director, so I was running the American Rescue.

Speaker 1

You didn't really have a good you didn't have a good window into that.

Speaker 2

With the air I didn't see as much. But I never had the feeling. No, I never had that that feeling. And to be quite honest, I think in some ways, the Trump White House has invited that, you know. I think I don't think that the AI companies would feel like, oh my, if you didn't do exactly what Joe Biden wanted, he was going to go out and punish you, or single you out, or call in the Justice Department, the

criminal part of the Justice Department on you. I think that, you know, I think what you've seen more recently is really the most unattractive thing I think I've seen in my political life, which is that the most well off people and the most well off companies are the first ones to take a knee and to and to do

whatever this administration wants. So as much as I agree that we need to be concerned about the lobbying and political power of major companies and are determining the path on AI, in this situation, it's a little bit like the White House kind of invited it, you know, a little bit of give money.

Speaker 1

As I said, you know he's not.

Speaker 2

And you'll have influence.

Speaker 1

And if not everybody knows, everybody knows how it works. You write a big enough check to the right entity, you're going to get a meeting.

Speaker 2

So I just don't think you would have seen that kind of behavior, you know, towards the Biden administration, because one it wouldn't have been tolerant but too On the other hand, we wouldn't have been out there telling American companies, you know, do as we say, or or American universities or American law firms that you have to get in

line or there's going to be consequences. They may not have liked our climate policy, they may have disagreed with some anti trust policy, but the notion of you contribute and get in line, or you will face consequences. Was just not part of the bid. No Harris administration.

Speaker 1

All right, I'm going to get you out of here on what I think is the toughest question. I'm gonna ask you, Jim Harball. Good feelings are bad feelings when you think about Michigan football.

Speaker 2

Good feelings.

Speaker 1

You know, you look at this situation because you know, are you do you wish he were still there? Or do you feel like, Nope, we got our title and I'm glad he left.

Speaker 2

I think that for a while of reasons it made sense for him to go. But look, I've been just an incredible Michigan football, Michigan basketball, Detroit Lions, Detroit Tigers, Detroit Pistons fan for six nice runners.

Speaker 1

It's finally coming together six seven.

Speaker 2

So I've never had a football team in the I've never had the Lions in the super Bowl, the Tigers. We've had two World Series in my life. So let's just say I'm not I'm more like the AI startup than Navidia. You know, Navidia is like the Patriot fans. They have so much, they have so much. But I will say that two thousand that two thousand and three, two thousand and four. I mean that NCAA championship game, being there with my family at Michigan Ohio State, being

there at the Rose Bawl when they beat Alabama. I think that was kind of like you said, your whole life, if we ever won an national championship outright like that, I won't ask for anything more. I feel like I have to honor that for a few more years.

Speaker 1

And and you you never felt like the ninety seven title was just because you split it with Nebraska. It never felt perfect.

Speaker 2

It did never feel quite as perfect, though I was very happy, and I still to this day. You ready for this. When Michigan came for their their ceremony with Bill, did you.

Speaker 1

Guys invite them both? By the way, that Clinton the.

Speaker 2

Same day, but they had separate ceremonies. Interesting and the and the Bill Clinton and the Michigan one was right before a budget meeting, so they gave Bill Clinton a hat that he wore, and he came into the budget meeting. He was in the cabinet office and the first thing he did was fling me the cap. So I still have the hat that the ninety seven Michigan football team presented to him, and I also had the benefit of Jim Harbaugh brought the team to d C during the

Biden administration. I got invited to go over and be the dinner speaker at one of their whole dinners and hang out with him and them, and so oh, he will always be thankful for Jim Harbaugh for that. You know.

Speaker 1

It's funny about Jim Harbaugh, and I take it you've gotten to know him a little bit. A lot of people try to pigeonhole his politics. I'm guessing he's like most Americans. It's not as predictable as people try to make them out to be. He's pretty passionate on some issues, like I know, reproductive rights and things like that, and so people just assume he's in one place, but he

seems like he's genuinely like your typical Midwestern independent. There's a little bit of you don't quite know where he's coming down.

Speaker 2

Well, you know, yes, And it goes to the question you asked me before. I think people who sit around and think, oh, should we be angry, populist or centrist, it's not the right way to think. Think about real people what's best for their lives. What's best for their family. That's gonna I think, as we said, that's going to make for some populist anger, but it's but you should think about their lives. And I think, yes, Jim Harbaugh is one of those people that's a bit more complicated.

It's very clear his wife is very pro life and he's respected. That is the other hand. The real highlight of my you know, one of the highlights of my time in the Bide administration was I was speaking to the Legal Service Legal services, you know, the people who represent the poor, and as they brought, knowing my background, they brought Jim Harbaugh on to introduce me. Why because Jim Harbaugh has been a huge advocate of legal services for the poor and is actually on the National Advisory Board.

So yeah, he's a little more complicated, and I think a lot of Americans are a little more complicated and exactly that way.

Speaker 1

So have you become LA's only Chargers fan now, because I know there's people are looking for Charger fans in LA if they find them.

Speaker 2

Now, I'm a Lions fan. I'm lucky enough to kind of know a couple of the owners of the Commanders. So I think if I have a second team now it's the Commanders, but first team first and always will always be the Detroit Lions.

Speaker 1

Well look, it's a you know I. The only good news for you living out there in la Is you might be able to see Tarik Schooble pitch as a Dodger before the season ends, which will really piss you off.

Speaker 2

The only good news for me being out in la Is One word weather, second word weather, third word weather.

Speaker 1

Jane, It's always fun to talk with you. Good to catch Thanks all right, my friend.

Speaker 2

Bye bye,

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