¶ Chris Cillizza joins the Chuck ToddCast
This episode of the Chuck Toodcast is brought to you by Quints. A thoughtfully built wardrobe comes down to pieces that mix well and last. That's where Quince shines. Premium fabrics, considered design, and every day essentials that feel effortless to wear and dependable even as the seasons change. Quince has the everyday essentials I love with quality that lasts, lightweight cashmere sweaters, not too expensive either by the way, short
sleeve Mongolian Kashmir polos, linen bottoms, and shorts. Quinch works directly with top factories and cuts out the middlemen. That's why it's more affordable. You're not paying for the brand markup or any fancy retail stores, but you're still getting quality. Everything is built to hold up to regular wear and still look good. Quite often I'm wearing something that I've gotten from Quints. It is incredibly comfortable. I've become a middle aged man who loves his quarter zips. They have
plenty of those. I have been very pleased, and it's just, you know, when I like a piece of clothing, I probably wear it too much and usually tell after about two or three months. That's not the case so far, with Quinn's. That's been impressive. So right now, go to quins dot com slash chuck for free shipping and three hundred and sixty five day returns. It's a full year to build your wardrobe and you'll love it. Now available in Canada too. Don't keep settling for clothes that don't last.
Go to qu I n ce dot com slash chuck for free shipping, three hundred sixty five day returns quints dot com slash chuck. Well, I normally am on the
¶ Jasmine Crockett concedes race to James Talarico
receiving end of this, but he's Chris, and this is Crystaliz's a guest appearance on the Check podcast. And those of you that may not know this, and maybe some of you don't know, I appear weekly on your Behind the Paywall podcast. You're an elite you're an elite network influencer. Yeah, it's a Britique offering. You have a velvet rope behind our conversations. You know, I'm a man of the people, as you know, and say no, you we're getting rid of the velvet rope just for this.
When I heard when I got the email that I was being asked to be on the Chuck podcast, I immediately told my wife. I've made it.
You know.
Well, I thought Chuck was blackballing me off of the
¶ Race between Paxton & Cornyn essentially a wash
Chuck Podcast. Apparently not. He must be hard off for guests. Somebody canceled.
No, I bucked ken Burns for you. But how about that, you know America's two hundred and fiftieth birthday in the American Revolution. We can wait a few days on that.
Can I trade bank accounts?
Now? Well that's there, you got I teeth. Look we were we did a live stream on Tuesday night. Yeah, but you know, in many cases, you know, you have the immediate moments when you deal, and then you know, you get a day, you get a night, you get to sort of see this. And you know, since we last saw you as a pair, Jasmine Crockett is conceited quite quickly. And I think there was some question about
¶ Big question is "Can Cornyn get to 50%"
whether Taller I think Taller Rico's management of that was quite deft when he said, hey, we're not calling, We're not claiming victory until all the votes are counted in Dallas, which has made it harder for Crockett to have a grievance when her own opponent was willing to have her back there. And now it's you know, and now all the all the eyes are on the Republican side. By the way, we still don't have all the votes in No, we still don't.
Have Look, it's like ninety five percent, and I do think Cornan will finish a heag marginally. I mean, it's it's basically going to effectively be a wash. It's eight ninety seven point eighty four to eight seventy one, six seventy. So Cornyan has had by twenty six thousand votes with
¶ Public is getting tired with the bomb throwers in politics
ninety more than ninety five percent.
In Here is the stat that moved me the most that I saw today, and that is in counties that Donald Trump one by fifty points or more. In the deep red Texas County, Okay, all right, Paxton consistently led corn In by four to five points for four to forty when you put all those together. So I look at that and you're just, you know, Cornyn, the question is can Cornn get to fifty? Right?
Like?
You know this is you start to look and I it's you know, it's fascinating. I'm gonna share an anecdote with you. I was running some errands on Wednesday morning, and you know, you know, you live in your neighborhood. You have the same people you run into and you know, and these are people that are not political people, but they know what I do for a living. And you know, I was ran into one of these acquaintances and I said, yeah,
I'm tired. I was covering the Texas primaries. You know, I'm just sort of groggy, sorry, or something like that. And this person said, oh, those were last night. He goes, so what happened? And you know, meaning but you know, you know, and I said, and he said, who won that Democratic? And I said, the young pastor did Tella Rico? He goes, oh, I'm relieved. He goes, you know, I just exhausted from the bomb throwers. And it was just, you know, we've been having this debate, Chris, right, which
is where is the Democratic primary electorate? Is it in fight mode or is it in exhaustion mode? And in twenty eighteen it felt exhaustion right, they were in twenty twenty, twenty eighteen and twenty twenty it was less fight back and more like this is crazy, let's have a reset, and they're all The messaging was sort of around that. All the candidates sort of leaned into that whether you're
Alyssa Slotkin. And yet this first year of Trump's second term, we've seen the fighters, whether it's Gavin Newsom in the presidential stakes, or frankly, it was Jasmine Crockett who jumped out sort of tortoise and hair type of mindset. Right.
¶ Talarico did well in counties that Bernie Sanders won
She jumped out early and was doing better than I think a lot of us expected, and we thought, oh boy, this this fighter mentality maybe getting you know, Democrats, maybe they want to punch her. They don't necessarily want a preacher, and yet they do. You know, you look at the twenty,
then you look at the Virginia New Jersey races. Yeah, and you look at the the style of Mom Donnie Okay, which is moderate in tone even if it's progressive, totalte and you're asked and you're like, maybe Gavin Newsom has this wrong, maybe he's making a mistake.
It's so funny that you said that, because one of the things I really like, it's always hard. I'll first say, it's always hard when we're live and we're trying to analyze in real time. You're not totally sure where the votes are coming from, and you obviously don't have a minute to kind of step back and just be like, I'm going to go through each race. I'm gonna look at each race and be like, oh, that's interesting, that's
not It's hard to have like deeper thoughts. That's why I like a couple days after you can sort through.
¶ Texas Dems have been losing forever, desperate for "new"
I was on Wednesday morning. I was just looking at the results and I was thinking about the conversations you and I have had in the run up to this Tallar Eico Crockett, which is that a lot of the national media has painted this as liberal husband Crockett against moderate James Telrico, which is totally wrong. And I'll point you to it. There's a great stat out there. There's a great map online that shows that in the counties that Bernie Sanders won in the Texas primary, tell Rico
won by forty points. I mean, the reason that he won is because of the left. Crockett was never a that was never a governing dynamic. But the other thing I was thinking about, to your point, is like the fighter versus uniter or the you know, the the over partisan versus the kind of I don't want to call Tallary called bipartisan, but a lot less partisan energy. And I was thinking, you know, what like, it's one data point. But if I'm Pete boodage age or like a Shapiro.
I feel like a bit Andy Bisheer.
I felt a little bit better after on the day after than I did the day before. And again it's one data point. Like if Graham Plattner in Maine goes and beach Janet Mills by thirty points, Okay, we're never having a different conversation, right, you know, so I would.
Also, I don't want to discount the following phenomenon, which is there's you know, when you've been beaten to a pulp like Texas Democrats have been for the last twenty years, you're you're like anything, you know, there's there's a I'm going to quote an old Eddie Murphy stand up line. It is like when you're a starving person, any cracker tastes like our ritz, you know, and he's like, oh man, this is a great cracker. When you're starving, anything tastes
like our writs. Right, And it is so that there
¶ Don't mistake politically & temperamentally "moderate"
is you know, this is why you know, one primary does not make a trend, and you have to wait and we have to watch and look Illinois in two weeks presents. You know, there's all sorts of flavors of Democrats you can pick from in that Democratic primary in Illinois that frankly I think has been hijacked by big money in a way that gosh to two extraordinary methods. But let's put a pin in that buying the office, no,
no doubt. But when you what you have so I you know, is this say Texas Democrats are exhausted and they're looking for a winner, you know? Or is this you know? So that's that'd be the only caution I want to put in here. But I have to say. Nate Silver wrote a really interesting piece this morning on
¶ Being perceived as "nice" goes a long way
Wednesday about Kid tell Rico win correct and it was I I was talking about this issue of partisan versus moderate, which is that we and he correctly said a lot of sort of inexperienced I call him in a you know, the problem with big mainstream media these days, or whatever's left of it, is that there's a lot of important legacy titles with a lot of inexperienced political reporters, you know who think politics started you know, after you know,
when Donald Trump came down the escalator and don't really have a lot of experience beyond sort of the last eight to ten years of American politics. And and so you know the difference between partisan. You can be moderate and temperament and still very ideologically either Conserva or modern. So I'll give you you know.
And that's mom. Donnie, I think is such a good example of that. People. How could he go and get along with Trump because he's temperamentially moderate even though on a policy perspective he's very very liberal.
So you know, one of the most conservative senators that Florida's ever had, and arguably more conservative than the two senators that they have at the moment, was a guy named Connie Mack. Totally honey, Connie Mack. I used to call him the conservative with a smile because when he ran as a conservative, and he ran when he won
¶ Online Dems are mad, but many want a change in tone
an eighty eight uh, he won, I think despite his ideology. But it was because he was just simply a nice guy. That's really was Connie Mack your pal? And he was just sort of and he always was. He was he's always it goes. Reagan is the great, you know example, and he was Reagan, which was, hey, look, if you're going to sell austerity, you ought to be don't better be with a smile, don't be a dick.
Yeah, exactly. You know, it's a simple lesson, But it's actually because I was thinking about that with Chip.
Roymembertism with George W.
Bush, and I know, like Chip Roy is kind of unlikable, do you know what I mean? And he got pummeled in the Attorney General's race, like it does matter. We talk about we always talk about Tim Burchett. Tim Burchett is like among the most conservative members of Congress, but like Algender, const Cortez loves him because he's like a he's like a It's exactly what you said. He's not overly partisan, even though he's very conservative.
Another example on the right Mike Pence. Mike Pence, you know, lived in the same neighborhood I'd lived in for a while. Everybody loved him. I don't know if anybody would have ever voted for him, Okay, in the neighborhood. He was very you know, and yet he was the guy that you know, would bring in your garbage cans if you were if you didn't have a chance to do it because you were late coming.
And I think people don't understand that. I think that's such an important intall.
Errico may have this, and it may matter more to Texans than perhaps it does folks in Illinois, or perhaps
¶ If Platner beats Mills by 15, Talarico data point feels like outlier
it does. I mean, and so I I but but there is something about temperament here that I think we're we're you know, we're we're all trying to figure this out in this second Trump term, which is our Democrats. And the thing is, if you're online, if you're a Pod Save America Democrat, you're you're on edge.
You're midas touch Democrat. You hate him and everything he does.
Yeah, but you know, if you're sort of not, if you're trying to tune it out and you're you're you're more looking, you know, but you're still you know, hopefully you're subscribing to YOU or I because you're like.
Let's you're making some attention, Yeah.
But you don't really want to be lectured all the time in the screen and made to feel like the sky is falling every second of the day. You're you're looking for change, but you're looking for a change in
¶ Have constant Dem losses in TX made "electability" more important?
tone as much as a change in in in ideology. And look again, this maybe it's one state. It's one very big state. Yep, it's it's gigantic and.
A ton of profile and a ton of attention. I I like the the main race is probably the clearest example of that. The choice, I also think it's a three way race is a little more complicated. But in the Michigan Senate primary, you kind of have Hailey Stevens, the member of Congress, who's very much like I'm not going to talk about how terrible Trump is. You have Abdul l si Ed, who's like Justice Democrat Bernie Sanders. And then I think McMorrow probably winds up being the Mallard.
McMorrow winds up being on me, who's kind of a hybrid.
She's Goldilocks. Yeah, exactly right.
But I don't know, But I mean, there will be more data points. And look again, if Graham Platner beats Janet Mills by fifteen points in the main primary, you know that, then the tall Eco thing looks like just a data point that's contradicted by that data point, right, Like, we don't know.
Yeah, well, let's talk. Let's have a little fun here.
¶ Dems in Texas have to vote with their head and not their heart
I was. I did this sort of scenario with a couple of people earlier, earlier today, and this is the following. If the Democrats had been the dominant political party in Texas for the last thirty years, and the Republicans were the ones that have had a hard time winning general elections. Does the Republican electorate become more mindful of quote unquote electability? And and does the Democrat you know, and I say this in that the fact is we've actually seen this
play out. Right, Why does a moderate Republican like Larry Hogan successfully navigate a primary in Maryland that yes, he had a conservative.
Murphy Cracker thing, right, You're.
Like, well, maybe this guy can win, right, And you know, it's it's one of those that that Crockett probably wins. If Democrats had gotten comfortable winning.
One hundred percent. I think it's it's so much of it is expectations, right, if you've won and you control I mean, look, we're talking about this. You know Gary Morrow, right, is the last Democrat to win statewide in two thousand and four.
No, nineteen eighty four, nineteen ye. I mean, that's a long ass time you were in college or high school. I was.
I was graduating from past that was my high school graduation and I turned fifty a few days ago, So that tells you how long it was like I do think there is a a an element of like, look, we don't have the luxury of picking the perfect. We have to vote with our head more than our heart. And I think that always is the case in places where you've been down one party has been down for
¶ Crockett is a great political athlete with bad campaign infrastructure
an extended period of time, you are more willing to be like, it's not my cup of tea. But like, I've spent the last twenty five years under Democratic rule. So maybe Charlie Baker as the governor of Massachusetts or whatever, you know, like he's probably too moderate for me, but like, you know, and I.
Think that that better than those liberals over there, right.
Because you know what it's like to live under if you're a Democrat in Texas, you've spent probably most of your adult life under almost fied Republican rule. So you now know, like, I'm not letting the perfect get in the way of the good here, right, And I do think I think that's human nature to do that.
I don't want to let Texas go without picking a few knits because you know, one of it was interesting last night, we had some we had you know, all of the as Missus Todd likes to say, she goes I love the numbers guys that you guys have on the livest Nerds. Yeah, you know, because I say that, I say that lovingly. But if I had one, you know, there was this well, hey, it just broke down the
¶ Talarico had a great ground game, should scare Republicans
exact same way that Royce West and m J. Hagar broke down. And you're like, Okay, that's true, except you know what both Crockett and what Crockett had that that Royce West didn't have was money and attention and a.
Way bigger profile. Nobody except people like us even knew who Royce West was.
So what I would the knits I'd pick here is that. So I think I'm going to separate Jasmine Crockett political athlete right when you have like, you know, you take the A good example of my be a let's take my son's favorite NBA team, the Phoenix Suns. He's very frustrated they have one of the best players in the
NBA that that doesn't get enough enough attention. And yet is it Booker's fault that he has a terrible infrastructure around him, that he's got a you know, a campaign manner, I mean, an owner that's you know, way to this right that the big all the The point is is that so here she was a really good political athlete who had a terrible infrastructure round because I at the end of the day, she.
Did not run a good campaign.
She did not she did not have a statewide organization. She was sort of she You know. The problem is it strikes me as she was the candidate and the manager, and you have to have versus Talla. Rico clearly had
¶ Crockett could compete for Ted Cruz's senate seat
an organization.
I mean, yeah, he is real people, Liz Smith who's had successful well that's not just.
That, but the people. But they clearly had a ground operation. Clearly we're thinking about real Grand Valley, right, and that's that's how he won. This episode of the Chuck Toddcast is brought to you by American Financing. So if you looked at your credit card statement lately, you're working forty fifty hours a week just to buy groceries and gas things that used to be able to afford, right, and the credit card companies are charging you over twenty percent
interest for the privilege. Think about that. It's a lot of extra money out the door. It's designed to keep you under water. Well, American Financing is doing something they hate. They're actually trying to help people. They have mortgage rates
¶ Unlikely this is the last we hear from Crockett in politics
in the fives. They're showing homeowners how to take their hard earned equity to wipe out that high interest debts. The average savings is eight hundred dollars a month. So talk to a salary based mortgage consultant, no upfront fees, no obligation, commission, none of that. To see how much you can say and if you start today, you could delay to mortgage payments. Give American Financing a call America's home for home loans eight six six eight eight five
ten point eighty one. That's eight six six eight eight five one zero eight one, or go to Americanfinancing dot net. Slash the Chuck Toodcast use that code. This episode of The Chuck Podcast is brought to you by Zebiotics. Let's face it, after a night with drinks, it's hard to bounce back the next day. You have to make a choice either have a great night or a great next day. Well, that's where pre alcohol comes in. Zbiotics. Pre alcohol probiotic
drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was
¶ Crockett did well where she was well known
invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a build up of this by product, not dehydration that's to blame for the rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break this by product down. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly,
and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Now. Look, I don't drink anymore, so I can't giveiotics pre alcohol a personal endorsement. But my producer Lauren does drink and he tried it out. Lauren, how was your experience, I'll be honest, Chuck.
I was a bit skeptical at first, but the other night I went out with my wife to our favorite spot for Margarita's and tried pre alcohol beforehand and got to admit I was surprised by how good I felt the next morning, disabled the pop right out of bed, get a workout in, have a great day of work. So pre alcoholic gets my stamp of approval.
So there you go. You ready to try it, Go to zebiotics dot com slash Chuck podcast right now. You'll get fifteen percent off your first order when you use
¶ Kamala Harris endorsement came too late for Crockett
Chuck Podcast at checkout. Plus, it's backed by a one hundred percent money back guarantee, so there's no risk. Subscriptions are also available for maximum consistency. Remember to head to zebiotics dot com slash Chuck podcast and use the code Chuck podcast at checkout for the fifteen percent discount. Again, use the code Chuck podcast, and that should scare the Bejesus out of it for publics. Right, if if Talla Rico can essentially recreate what Veto did in the Rio Grand Valley,
because people forget this. Beto cleaned up in the Rio Grand Valley against Cruz. His problem, frankly, I think was he didn't do as well. And this was a critic of him. He was almost so obsessed with the Rio Grand Valley that he sort of didn't run up the score in the urban areas that arguably he should have
run it right. And and you know this was you know, this is the the if you were going to make the case for Crockett on the ticket, it would have been, well, she's not gonna you know, the urban areas are going
¶ Harris shows herself to be incredibly risk averse
to turn out in greater numbers, you know, so then you just send her to to the Rio Grand Valley and see if she can, you know, fight to a draw among Latino voters. So it is it is clear that she didn't run a statewide campaign. No, and and so you know, look, I think that here's what I've I feel like her decision to concede quickly, she conceded quicker than I fully expected, tells me she wants a future in the party. I was just going up and
that says a lot. Look cruises up soon. And who's to say, you know, we've seen plenty of places where the second time you run, you maybe she'll figure out that she needs to not always run hot, right.
She's especially a state that big, Yeah.
It's always in fifth gear. She won't she won't necessarily have to do that the next time. You know, does she have does she have an ability to pivot? And all this stuff? And what kind of campaign? What kind of candidate is she? If she has an actual campaign infrastructure? Right now, Look, here's stuff I don't know. I don't know whether she's easy to that she will listen to
an infrastructure. Right, we don't know those things. I don't you know, I'm not going to sit here and say I know her very well, but I don't think she's erratic, and I don't think she makes the same mistake twice.
I thought it was very First of all, one thing that I just looked up, she's only forty four years old, Okay, so put that, I think it is unlikely this is the last you've ever heard from herlitically. Second, I when I got up Wednesday morning and I saw that she had conceded and endorsed tall Rico and then put on Twitter, you know we're all unified, I thought, well, she's probably
gonna run for something like that. Is that is like the Democrat First of all, it's the Democratic dream scenario, right, Like they need like eight things to go right, Chuck, to even put yourself in a position where they might win. And one of those things was you could not have any look of particularly with Crockett being an African American woman, you could not have there be a vibe of, oh, I don't really love the kind of campaign tallar Rico ran.
And maybe a'll endorsement eventually, but it'll be right like she gave an unequivalental endorsement. I agree. I will say I think she started too late, right, I mean, she got into late for the size of the primary tall. Rico had been in for a really long time, and I don't if you look at the numbers. She did well where she was known. She did well on the Dallas media market. She did pretty well in Harris County
in Houston. But man, like the entire if you split the state vertically, she just gets destroyed right in everything in the western part of the state.
It just struck. It looks like a campaign that was
¶ We'll get the full story on the late endorsement in six months
not complete, right, a campaign infrastructure that was just incomplete. She was the classic building it as the plane is taking off and.
A house member, right. A house members never run statewide and it's not like running statewide in my home state of Connecticut, where it's like you're if you're a member of Congress who represent the twenty percent of the of the state. You rep what are the thirty six members of Congress and tech I mean you reap. Nobody knows what the hell you aren't say California.
One more little you know, how you sort of you see an event, you see something happen, and you're like, hmm, there's more to this story. So the Kamala Harris last minute in Dorset, Yes, all right, I promise you there's a TikTok to do on this, right, My guess is
¶ Harris shares the same knock Biden got... can't make decisions
Rocket tried to get this weeks ago, of course, and I'm sure Crockett, who's part of the the Black Sorority, She's a member of one of the big black those Kamala Harris. This is one of those sisterhood things. Right, are you going to back? And so you know, this strikes me as a classic Kamala Harris risk, you know, waiting too long, being indecisive. Oh am I going to get involved? Am I not going to get involved? All right? If I well, boy, it looks bad if I don't
back the black woman. But you know, and then when does she do it? When it's too late to help, so she gets all the worst parts of this, which did.
It after early vote was over right? I mean it makes no sense.
¶ Newsom signals shift on Israel in front of a very liberal audience
It really made It was really just strategically inact and it what it I'll tell you what my suspicion is is that this is hand ringing inside a Kris world. Should they get into these things, they not get into these things. And then when you when you wring your hands. And this was, by the way, this is the knock against her goes back to our original presidential campaign that's going to be for medicare for all? Is she not
going to be for medicare? You know, liberal? And you know, you know it's some Sometimes you are who you are, and this is who she is, right, which is she's never been comfortable with the political identity that other people have of her, which means she is always second guess her own political identity. Is she the prosecutor? Is she the defendant? Is the social justice democrat? Is she the
moderate pragmatist? Or is she the progressive disruptor? And you know, even in how she handled this endorsement totally, you know, to me, it was like, well, I don't you know, I don't you know, I don't understand what took so long other than it's clear it came from her side, because it just it made no sense. On the property side, is.
Getting it makes no sense because it's exactly what you said, Like,
¶ Newsom just pandering? Or is it a genuine flip
let's just let's just first of all, you're exactly right. This is not in a vacuum. This is consistent with indecision and handwringing that has gone literally back to when she first ran for president. Now I would argue before that, but yeah, it's also like, let's just let's just look at it like as in a sterile political decision. If you're going to endorse, you do it so that you
get the potential upside. If you endorse two weeks ago and Crockett wins, you say, oh, crocket one, I did that the classic Donald Trump, Why the hell would you endorse where you literally there's no win scenario. If Crockett wins, everyone like us is gonna be like she endorsed her two days before the election. If Cricket loses, people like us as we're doing it to see, what the hell are you doing? Why did you endorse solely?
I mean maybe if Crockett had narrowly eked it out, perhaps Kamala would have been seen as sort of the the tipping point at the end. That's about the only trying to think.
Sense to endorse that late in the game, because you're not going to get credit for it.
Look, it's sort of uh, in the in the fantasy world where I have one hundred political reporters to assign stories to, I probably wouldn't assign the Hey, go figure out what took so long? In the Kamala Harris endorsement,
¶ Gavin Newsom is a politician to his core
a jizment Crockett. So this is one of those tiktoks that at some point I think, well, this is one of those we'll learn this story in like six months when somebody sort of as an aside, ask somebody about it, and we get the full story. But there's I have a feeling that when we find out why this took so long, that it will fit the pattern of the Harris world's indecisiveness about her own political idea, and I.
Think it will land ultimately as most of these things have, with her back on her right, not just the team, but back on her that she was like, do I get involved? Do I not get involved? And there were some people saying get involved, there's some people saying not get involved, like in every campaign, and she just waited to it. Which is fascinating, by the way, because you know the other politician I always Democrat politician. I always think of who the knock on him was, always he's
too indecisive, Joe Biden. I mean that is that was always the knock on Biden, like he can't make any decisions. It's why he didn't run for president.
Does make time around? It goes back to look, there are plenty of politicians who don't like to make enemies and they don't want to make anybody mad. And I'm sure you know in that succeed look, and I want to pivot to something else. You know, there are certain candidates that also are are crowd pleasers in the moment and sometimes right this is the Donald Trump, both positive
and negative. He tells every crowd what they want to hear yep, in the moment, regardless of whether it's a contradiction to something he told somebody else a mini later
¶ Newsom looked like he was desperate to find traction
to y Yeah, well, I have a feeling. Our friend Gavin Newsom pulled one of those on Tuesday night when he did a book interview with the Pod Save America Guys where he knew the audience was going to be
super lefty. He knew where the Pod Save America guys are and particularly in foreign policy and particularly when it comes to bb net Yahoo and he and he ended up give it, telling them what they wanted to hear, using using phrases He's going to come to regret, like accusing Israel of being an apartheid nation, and it is
¶ Trump didn't change, the moment came to him
it is, you know, it is when you use the language that is being used to target Jews. Left and right, and you're you're sort of giving aid and comfort with that ar you know, but it was you know, this is this is always something I've always worried about with Gavin, is that he's always I mean, the irony is his book is still who he is. He's in a hurry. He's in a hurry to cement his status as the
as the as the candidate for the angry Democratic base. Okay, but you know, I think that that has a low ceiling. And I you know, I don't think it's a I put it this way. I think he made a lot. He reminded a lot of people of why there's so much skepticism his ability to be a national candidate when he went to me, when he went when he went as it just felt like he was pandering to the crowd. It didn't feel like a genuine flip.
Well, and you know we I think we did it.
And I'll respect the flip. I'll respect the genuine flip. But here's what I would say, And I'm just look,
¶ Tariffs are terrible politics, but Trump's liked them for decades
I'm I'm are you is it a when you criticize the Trump administration? Is it America that does these things? Or is it the Trump administration? And this would be the you know, I would ask Gavin news From that, you know, do you you know if somebody says, you know, America is now you know a bunch of thugs that that do this or that, or you know, you're you're going to attribute it to everybody that lives in the country. Do you do that in the United States? Why do we do that with Israel all the time?
I I we talked at the end of twenty twenty
¶ Bernie Sanders has been the most authentic politician for years
five about who we thought had good years and bad years, and we both agreed that Gavin Newsom then had really a remarkable twenty twenty us right, he went from like to wow, okay, like either he or Kamala Harris is the front runner. But I always remind people that, remember how Gavin Newsom started twenty twenty five. He started a podcast that was expressly aimed at interviewing people with whom
he disagreed. So he had Steve Bannon on, he had the late Charlie Charlie kirk On, and that clearly was a you know what, the Democratic Party is talking to themselves too much. We need to talk more.
And then all of a sudden, Gavin realized way aloud from the loud influencer left by the way, if I.
Troll Donald Trump on Twitter, I and like, my point is is, like, don't Gavin Newsome is a politician. I mean that in good ways and bad ways and the bad way. He didn't decide, you know what the world needs, they need me speaking out against Donald Trump. His first inclination was after the twenty twenty four election, we need to broaden the party out and I'm gonna talk to
¶ Sanders and Ron Paul ended up voting together many times
people who with whom I disagree. That didn't go over very well. And what started to go over well was I'm gonna just troll Trump. I'm gonna give Trump his own medicine. And that propelled him. But let's not pretend that that was like the first instinct that Kevin Newsom had when he saw what had happened in twenty twenty four. So I do think the danger for all of these people at a national level. I know you know this better than me, is it is hard not to tell
people what they want to hear. You are probably a people pleaser. It's why you do this job right, really really hard. But the truth is, when you have this level of scrutiny when you're running for president, which he is you gotta be real careful.
You know. Look, and we talk about the A word authenticity, and you know it's sometimes overused and it's over over you know, can be sort of over analyzed. But I look at it. You know, it's sort of like Gavin Newsom. You know, it's like you have a your your, you have your you have a stick shift, and you're trying to let me try first gear, let me try say, let me, let me try all these different let's see
what where I can get traction right. And it literally was him searching for traction versus be who you are and see if the moment meets you, that's it, right, Like there's always two you know, it's like are you you know, are you create? Are you trying to fit the moment? Or are you already there and the moment comes to you? Right?
You know?
Like Donald Trump, it turns out he didn't. Everybody's like, oh,
¶ Vance lost the anti-interventionist part of his identity after Iran war
he figured No. Donald Trump has been the same erratic crank about all of American governance for the last thirty five forty.
Years and he's had a victim complex his entire adult life. It's just it worked in that moment.
It bit the moment, the Republican Party came to him in many ways, right, table is his anger hit. He was already a short attention span guy, a a squirrel brain, meaning social media, which basically rewards squirrel brain. Right, Oh, oh totally, that's you know, so it is in some ways and in you know why is why is Trump then defended? Well, he is who he is, and he's always been this person, and there's a lot of truth
to that. Right, he may be consistently erratic on a day to day way, but in some ways he's he's he's consistently inconsistent, authentically Inauthentic's there's a there's always been an odd through line to him.
Absolutely, you and I I think agree. I'm not an economist. I'm not going to although most economists say tarifts are bad policy, but they're they're terrible politics. I mean, we feel I feel very comfortable saying that. But like you can go back to interviews in the nineteen eighties where like a young businessman, Donald Trump is talking about how you know, I think at that point he was talking about Japan, but Japan is screwing us munch. So like
there are he is authentic. It's the same reason why I always say those people. It's a great tribute question who who is in most polling, the most popular politician in the country, active politician in office.
Is Bernie Sanders.
Because people agree with him. If you go you can
¶ The spinning for a narrative for the war is an absolute mess
go back when he was the mayor of Burlington and you're like, oh shit, he's saying the same stuffy saying.
Now, Actually, our friends at c SPAN, our buddy Howard Mormon, could put I think put together this this montage of clips of Bernie when he was a House member. I mean that when he was sort of the the gadfly socialist of the House, and and you know before he was a senator and people actually took him more seriously. He was saying the same thing. I don't think he said billionaires came to him. We didn't have that party. And he seen his quote unquote authentic because he he's
not met the moment. The moment came to him, right, And.
Who reminds me of that too? On a smaller level, Not to go too down far a rabbit hole, but remember when Ron Paul. Ron Paul ran for president a number of times, but the time that he ran where he was like marginally credible, it was because Ron Paul's views never changed. It's just that the there became a bigger streak of people interested in like, yeah, maybe the fat is bad. They were libertarianism is the right way to go. Like, it's not like Ron Paul changed.
Ron Paul twenty oh two was a weirdo. And in fact, Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders were literally Statler and Waldorf for the House. Totally. They were regularly.
James traffiican't la where you're like eeah, that guy gets up and says some stuff, and like they were.
And the iriny is that they regularly voted the same on some foreign policy stuff. Right, they were totally much Paul was an old fashioned isolationist. Paul looked like a total extremist during the Bush era and then and by
¶ The perception of the economy in June will be what affects midterms
it was twenty twelve, right, he ran in Oway, but it was twenty twelve where he started. You saw it, yea, And in fact he technically finished second to Romney.
I mean, if you went to any event, and I remember he.
Won, he won a lot of delegate conventions.
If you were at any cattle call, any kind of thing there was like you would be like, well, now it wound up being there were a lot of deeply committed people, but not enough of them. But the point is Ron Paul went from loon to.
He's the godfather of the anti interventionist wing of the the Trump coalition.
Yep.
And you know by the way, I you know I did. I saw that you promoted my quote unquote hot take right about Vans that this is I think. And you know, as much as I'm always hesitant to be the to be a hot taker on this one, I feel like I don't. There's no way you believe it.
My view is it's not a hot believe it. You're not saying you want to get attention. You're saying it because you believe it.
Right, I'm like, I don't see.
We don't have an I'm good at right ideas, but.
I don't see others as recoverable for him long term. That doesn't mean he won't be the Republican nominee, because he will be president.
Willfully misunderstood the quote bash for that.
¶ War will consume the administration
Yeah, No, it's not that we're saying.
You're saying, I just think a general.
Well, he just lost the most interesting part of his political identity. And and once you lose something that was uniquely yours. And when you're vice president, you lose a lot of your own political identity and you lose something that was uniquely yours, right that that sort of gave him right his entrance into this. Right, he's the Iraq War veteran that was like, wait a minute, we can't keep doing this. We're sending the same people. They all are people that lived in the areas of rural Ohio
that I grew up in. Right, That's who we're sending on these wars. We're not sending the sons and daughters of Donald J. Trump, you know, and the rich people. And he's now lost that identity. It does doesn't mean
¶ Administration had no plan to evacuate Americans from middle east
it ends his career. It just means I don't think he's ever going to get elected president of the United States now, because it's sort of a core part. When you lose a core part of your identity, I don't know how you recover.
It's hard to get it back.
It's hard to get it's almost it's impossible to get.
And look, yes, being very tightly affiliated with Donald Trump in a Republican primary in twenty twenty eight is probably I still think net net a very good thing. Being associated with Donald Trump in that legacy unless that legacy changes, right. I mean, we're talking about a president who's in the
upper thirties low forties in approval general electorate. The gap between what Republicans like and what independence and Democrats like is getting an Independence are very much moving over to democratic views right now.
Well, what's interesting, And you know it's funny yesterday, yesterday or earlier this week, I was, you know, I've been so consumed by the primaries that I sort of didn't I wasn't hour to hour paying attention to the Iran or spinning that was taking place by the administration. And
¶ Trump's big critique of Biden was the Afghanistan withdrawal
then you sort of step back the next day and absorb, you know, first of all, what an utter mess. And when you actually put together what happened in Texas on Tuesday night, with the absolute erratic nature of trying to essentially create a rationale for why you did this, and your rationale keeps changing, this has been a disaster week for the Republicans that are on the ballot in twenty twenty six. It is very difficult to defend what's going on right now.
It's the problem is it's like I don't think Iran decides the selection, but Every day Donald Trump is talking about Iran or Ecuador or Ukraine in Russia is a day he is not Remember the affordability tour that he was going to go on that Susie Wilds touted.
I'm telling you, it's like Infrastructure week, I mean the infrastructure week of the second term.
It's like it's it's March, you know, Like it's like that's two months that have been totally pissed away. Not only people start making their people's minds start getting They don't make their mind up on the day before the election, right, the parameters get set months before.
Do you hate hangovers? We'll say goodbye to hangovers. Out of Office gives you the social buzz without the next day regret. They're best selling. Out of Office gummies were designed to provide a mild, relaxing buzz, boost your mood and enhance creativity and relaxation. With five different strengths, you can tailor the dose to fit your vibe, from a gentle one point five milligram micro dose to their newest
fifteen milligram gummy for a more elevated experience. Their THHC beverages and gummies are a modern mindful alternative to a glass of wine or a cocktail. And I'll tell you this, I've given up booze. I don't like the hangovers. I prefer the gummy experience. Soul is a wellness brand that believes feeling good should be fun and easy. Soul specializes in delicious HEMP derived THHC and CBD products, all designed
to boost your mood and simply help you unwind. So if you struggle to switch off at night, Sol also has a variety of products specifically designed to just simply help you get a better night's sleep, including their top selling sleepy gummies. It's a fan favorite for deep restorative sleep. So bring on the good vibes and treat yourself to Soul today. Right now, Soul is offering my audience thirty percent off your entire order, So go to get sold
dot Com use the promo code toodcast. Don't forget that code.
¶ Prediction markets have Dems chances of winning senate at 45%
That's getsold dot Com promo code toodcast for thirty percent off. Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from personal experience. I was sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't have any money. He didn't leave us in the best shape. My mother single mother now widow, myself sixteen trying to figure out how am I going to pay for college? And lo and behold, my dad had one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot, but it was important at the time, and it's why
I was able to go to college. Little did he know how important that would be in that moment. Well, guess what. That's why I am here to tell you about Etho's life. They can provide you with peace of mind knowing your family is protected even if the worst comes to pass. Ethos is an online platform that makes getting life insurance fast and easy, all designed to protect your family's future in minutes, not months. There's no complicated process,
and it's one hundred percent online. There's no medical exam require you just answer a few health questions online. You can get a quote in as little as ten minutes, and you can get same day coverage without ever leaving your home. You can get up to three million dollars in coverage, and some policies start as low as two dollars a day that would be billed monthly. As of March twenty twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number
one no medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free quoted Ethos dot com slash chuck. So again that's Ethos dot com slash chuck. Application times may vary and the rates themselves may vary as well, but trust me, life insurance is something you should really think about it, especially if you've got a growing family. You know, we've seen
all these studies that indicate this. What the perception of what the public believes the economy is like in June Memorial Day is how they'll vote at the ballot box, right, even if things start to well, it's not that far And b his what he's done right now is actually screwed up the economy. Stock markets you know, been tanking. You know, I go back, Pam BONDI a couple of weeks ago. Why aren't we talking about Dow fifty thousand? Hey, guess what now? Hasn't been in fifty thousand since you
opened your mouth, miss Attorney General. It's been sitting and it's now below forty nine. So do you want to talk about that?
I mean, you know, or do you want to talk you about the Upstate is previously your latching your the economy is good. Argument that Donald Trump has done to the stock market is literally political malpractice. I mean, it's
¶ How should Dems try to affect Texas runoff?
just so dumb.
Because you can't control it well, and this sort of pivots and it's sort of like, you know, I want to I want to read you this anonymous quote that was in Playbook, because this is the what actual elected Republicans are hearing from their advisors. And this is characterized as a person close to the White House telling Politico, I have no problem blowing up the Iranians, but when you're at war, that is seventy five percent of your time. This is what Susie Wallace is going to be doing.
This is what James Blair, the White House political director, will be doing. This is what senior staff will be dealing with. And that is a problem. He goes, it needs to get over quick. Otherwise this is an effing nightmare. It already is a nightmare because you've got the Mega Coalition just tearing at the seams. Anything in a game of subtraction right now is effing disastrous. Anything that we
do that hurts our own base is catastrophic. They need to explain to the American people and they need, frankly, to do it pretty quickly and specifically to the Republican base. Yeah, and it's already they're all over the place. Was it the Saudis that talked it's into it? Was it the Israel?
Did MBS convince Donald Trump do it? Did we do do as Israel was going in any way?
Or And then this idea that we didn't have a plan to evacuate Americans from the region because it was too quick, Well, there's also reporting that indicates that they delayed this a week because of weather. They were actually going to do this the weekend before the State of the Year, before State of the Union, and it literally weather was the only reason they decided to tap the brakes.
So meaning you were preparing, you were preparing long enough to send two big time aircraft carriers to the region. You don't think about a plan to evacuate a Americans
¶ Meddling works and if Cornyn is the nominee Talarico loses
out of the Middle East. And now you're basically like tough luck. You've got John Rahm, a golfer, having to send his own plane to do buy me b Look, he's nobody's crying for him. They got money to do private plane stuff. God bless him. But the United States government isn't going to look out for its own US citizens in the region. And the dismissiveness of Trump on this is you know, uh, these are these are his own, these are his own voters.
And what what was the biggest foreign policy critique that
¶ Talarico's floor is around 47-48
Trump latched onto in the twenty twenty four campaign. Joe Biden mishandled the ending of Afghanistan. People were left there who shouldn't have been left, Like, it's all I mean, it's it's it's almost two on the nose.
If atocracy or a currency, Trump would even be wealthier than he is.
Yes, I mean it's yeah, I mean, and that's nothing that we're not even getting into the like Tulci Gabbard said, we can't go to war with Iraq. JD. Van said there shouldn't be a war with the with Aron Rather. J. D.
¶ How do Dems sort Alaska, Ohio, Texas and Iowa?
Vance said the same, you know what I mean, Like, oh, Donald Trump said we got to end forever wars. It's like and and and even Chuck, is it.
A war or not?
They can't even agree within themselves on Mark.
The Mark Wayne Mullin, I mean, it was you know what you needed, you know when they did that. There's this Mark Wade Mullin like back and forth, you just called it a war. Well it's you know, you know that used to be the way Veep would end. And you just sort of play the music, right.
Cloe is closer to a documentary than people realize.
Just play the beat music out of that, Mark Wade Mullein, play the cub music, you know, or what of the one of the two, and you just walk away. You're like, are you kidding me?
You know, it doesn't make any sense.
It just doesn't. It just doesn't.
I mean, there's no way to make it make sense.
Well, now we've got a let's let's large large picture here. Yeah, how in play is the Senate?
So I looked, I looked kind of mid week at the prediction markets, which we can debate forever, and I know we've talked about like how accurate is that?
¶ If Josh Turek is the nominee in Iowa, race could be interesting
Well, the production markets look really accurate when it came to their confidence in tall Rico and look really stupid in their confidence and backstent exactly. So it's like, you know, right, there's no difference exactly.
They're in the low forties for Democrats. Chances of taking the scent.
That's all. That's a right ish, that's a six point hike. By the way, since the end of twenty five. Remember it's gone up. It was one in three, rightly, And I remember at the time I had said at that price, uh, it's a goodbye, because I think that that the perception of Democrats chances in the Senate. And that's the interesting you know, that to me is what I will concede. What makes the prediction markets interesting to me is the
ability to cash a ticket before the result happens. Where it is now how she.
On Calshi and this will this obviously can move. But it's fifty five percent chance Republicans control the Senate. Forty five percent chance the Senate. Now that's that actual might be a little artificial high off of tall Rico winning and they're being a runoff and on the Republican side market, these markets are very susceptible the random news occurrence, right,
¶ 2026 will give us a clue as to how 2028 will play out
But what but it tells you where, It tells you where people's minds are, and.
They're starting to pay more attention to Alaska and Iowa.
All if you have to win, if you have to net at a minimum three, if Murkowski maybe in the chuck tout theory, switches parties. But let's just let's put that out of mind, and let's say it's for if you have to net for what you cannot do. We've learned this election after election you cannot only have four Republican seats where you have any chance. It's just you have no margin, right, And I think what they've done is, I think you have to feel really good if you're a Democrat about.
Roy Cooper in North Carolina.
Let's see about the primary in Maine. But it's you know, it's a state Kamala Harrison one, it's going to be a Democratic year. I never count Susan Colin top. But you got to feel good there, you know. And then it gets down to the kind of like Okay, Alaska, Iowa, Texas.
What about Nebraska. I mean, you know, it's a tie tide race right now.
The point is is the fact that we can throw those out there suggests to me that they have enough pieces on the playing field where it doesn't have to be either we pull a royal flush or nothing, right, so like there are different paths to get there.
I also I made the case of my podcast on Wednesday that this is actually not that expensive of a cycle when you look at the seats that the Democrats have to defend. You're looking at Georgia and Michigan. In
¶ If one of the independent candidate wins statewide it's a BIG deal
I would argue Minnesota, in New Hampshire lately, my soft will raise.
So much on his own r that you probably aren't going to have to handle that.
You know, they don't have a New York or California that they're spending, or Pennsylvania or in Illinois even or even Illinois right Republicans aren't putting that in play, so they don't have expensive races in the biggest states. So the question is how and this gets it to do you if you're Chuck Schumer, you're JB. Persh, do you play in Texas in the run.
How much do you believe in Texas? That's it?
Do you really do you work hard to help Paxton win that runoff? Do you? And how do you do it? Do you do the positive ad that thanks John Cornyn for being a gun control advocate? You know, do you do that kind of starkiness or do you do it the other way of ken Paxton is.
Too close to conservative for Texas sponsored by the Democratic Party, he's too right or he's too.
Pro Trump right the way totally. If they're serious about winning the Senate. We see stuff like that, and you so you could pay probably and I don't, and I wonder if they'll do it. I'll be curious.
That's also a cheaper day. I think if you meddle in that runoff, then if like you feel like you've got to go in for twenty five million to make any impact in a general right, like you could probably for ten million ish make make a dent potentially in the runoff pro Paxton. It's a little bit dangerous. But at the same time, I think the only people who are like I can't believe filling the blank party is meddling with other fill in the blank party are like
media types. I don't think the average person gives a crap No, Like I just don't think they care. It's like people who bang the drum on campaign finance. For me, yes, big money is less is more powerful now and less transparent than ever before. You know how many voters care about it? Almost no?
No, And look it should be it should be a bothers voter. But you know, good luck we well we were just we mentioned in passing race. We can talk more about it.
But the Illinois racement is just gross. It's great, it's gross, but like again, these people, people don't see it. It gets disclosed late in all these super packs and stuff.
It's like, you know, the Committee to Protect Goodness and Light. Well, that seems like a good group, but what's wrong, Like it's you know, people don't see it and they don't engage at the level we're at the point is is like I think, you the minor hit you might take for meddling, it probably is well worth the potential upside
¶ Midwest independent candidates know they can't run as Dems and win
because if Cornin is the nominee, Tallery.
By the way meddling works, okay, And do we have.
Any doubt, Like I think Tallarico loses to corn in fifty four to forty six.
I would, I would probably say it's more like Cruise Meadow. But I agree, I think it's two to three points. Like I okay, but but it's very.
Hard to see go beating Cornyn, even in a really.
Good democratic I think corn gets forty seven of corn It. I think Tallarico gets forty. I think his Florida's going to be forty seven forty eight. I think it's Flora's beadows Florida where is against Paxton.
I think if you ran the race one hundred times. I think Paxson would win it more times in tall Rico. But it's not a lot more times than tall Rico, do you know what I mean? Like it's and so it's like do you do you place a bet there? And and like you said, Texas ain't cheap, So it's
it's you know, how do you feel? I'm fascinated by the rankings of Like I think we would all agree North Carolina and Maine are clearly Democrats' best chances, right, But it's like stuff, Then how do we sort Alaska, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa? Like, how do you That's I think.
I look and we had a couple of guests make this case last night. I I think I agree that Alaska is the next best place because you have somebody that actually won state wide. She's one state wide, right, And yes, I know Sharon Brown has and yes, the last time he won was in a midterm year. That is true. You know, I do think, you know, I don't know if he fits the moment.
I think that he's had a lot of electric offices.
There is he's he's got a high floor, low ceiling. I think we know this about share, And it may be that you could spend fifty million dollars on that race and he'll get forty eight percent, And you can correct five million dollars in that race and he'll get forty eight percent.
Now a half percent, right exactly.
There's there's an argument to be made that money isn't going to be what decides as relative. It really is about Republican turnout, you know. And is there a depression a little bit? And do Independence come in in greater number? Do you get a supercharge of Democratic voters to show up and Independence break sixty forty rather than say fifty three forty seven?
Totally, you know, And I don't know if the intrigued by Iowa, if Josh Turik is the nominee, we had somebody.
I think his story is interesting that totally wrote off Iowa because Jody Ernst wasn't. And I'm just sitting there going, yeah, you've never with all respect you know, if you if you've not seen Jonie Ernstein, the trail's no good like a really good campaigner.
So and like Ashley is a good nominee, She's going to raise money, but like she never runs statewide before.
And again.
The wind in the face of Republicans and it's like turk to me. You know again. Paralympian he won two gold medals as a Paralympian basketball player. The guy's got an amazing story. He's I think if he's the nominee, be really hard to attack. That's not easy to attack like and may have it. He represents a district that Trump won, like, there's there's some there there. I'm kind of keeping that.
One on hold, so let me try to land this plane. I did a substack this week about sort of kicking off the midterms and through the prism of twenty eight, meaning yep, look, we're not going, We're not going. Twenty six is going to offer us clues about how twenty eight may play out, right. Clue Number one was a topic we've already discussed. The Democrats want a fighter? Are they looking for, in the words of my acquaintance, no more bomb throwers?
Right?
You know, what's the what's the what's the attitude in Texas? The clearly the attitude is please no bomb throwers. Give us somebody that can win. Let's see if that translates throughout the primary season. Number two is sort of the impact of Trump, Right, is Trump and that positive and that negative? How badly do you still need them? Obviously it's pretty clear Trump is still the most animating force. This is not a party that is yet thinking about the swing voter in the middle. And you know, is
the White House focused on this? No, they don't appear to be. And you know that's a whole separate ball game. Right. If Trump takes the blame for a double whamming loss in the midterms, meaning House and Senate, how does that impact twenty eight Right, that's we'll figure out. But the third item here is the last item that we haven't talked about. And we got a new candidate officially announced
in Montana. Yep, the former president of University of Montana, who's running as an independent, announced by trashing both the d's and the R saying both parties have let you down. John Tester, the former Democratic senator, has already endorsed him. There is a Democratic candidate and instead testers endorsing the independent. I'm looking at all of these these independent testers out here,
whether it's Duggan and Michigan, Osborne and Nebraska Bodner. Now in Montana, South Dakota's got Dakota, Kansas looks like they're going to get one.
Yep.
Coming close is an interesting to me.
You know, that's why we like this. Someone wins and someone loses.
That's right. If if an independent breaks through, if one breaks through in any of those states, I think that's a big deal. Small deal, medium deal.
I think big deal. I talked to Mike Dougan, former Detroit mayor running for governories. You know, I think he's in the mix. I don't think he's ahead, but I think he's in the mix. And his point was a point that you and I have talked about for decades, which is people need proof of concept. People won't buy that an independent can win a real statewide race and really matter until an independent it's a real states like we yes, we had when I was growing up, we
had Lol Wiker in Connecticut. Angus King was elected as a governor as an independent, right. I mean, it happens, but it usually happens in smaller states. And it's like if Michigan elects an independent, a guy who's expressly running like I was a Democrat, I'm you know, I think both parties have failed us. I want to solve problems it's a little bit an easy argument to make it for governor than for Senate. But I think that's what you need. I'm fascinated by that Michigan. You turned me
on too, that Michigan governor's race. And because what you have is like two only o k likely nominees for the two parties, like jo Justly Benson, the s fine I think with the James, John James on the Republican side, he's totally fine, competent, speaks. There's nothing there's not like a Wimer in that field.
And it's a little unfair to Jocelyn Benson. You know. It's like when you're the when you're the next woman in line behind a popular woman governor.
That's true, or even Melissa slack Kid. My point is there's not somebody who's like an obvious shining star that could be it. I'm fascinated by that. And and look, it's both a condemnation of the Democratic brand in the Plaine States and also a really interesting experiment in the
Plain States because all these people are aligned loosely. But but if I had to choose in South Dakota, Montana, the Kansas guy in South and and Nebraska, all of those guys running his independence, they're more on the Democratic side than the Republican side, but they have none of them identify as a Democrat because they can't win.
None of them would win with a D next to their name.
Don't even have a chance. And that I think they will admit that, and that's that's a brand problem for the party. But it's interesting.
It's like what I help right, What to me? What makes Duggan's candidacy different is he's running as an independent win Arguably he could have had a better shot at winning a primary because he was mayor of Detroit. He would have been the Democratic nominee, probably would have been the Democratic nominee, and but it was harder and he would have to run a bit more partisan, and he chose that he thought he could govern better as an independent, which is from that is at is something you don't.
You rarely see someone make a choice that is harder politically. It would have been easier to become governor by running in a Democratic primary, and he chose not to. Look, I'm one of those I split the difference. I think it's a big deal if Dougan wins. I think it's a medium deal. If any of the Senate independents wins and less more than one wins. Sure, right, if both Osborne and say Bodner the Montana Nebraska both go, I, oh, well, then that's a big story. Then that's a big story.
And then that's a that's an entirely different conversation. And I think what that will do. And I think a dug in victory all of them do this more than one eye winning, I think almost guarantees we're going to have a three way president.
I was literally just gonna say, you will see the independent third party candidates lining up thrife for president.
But that's but twenty six is the testing ground told you've got to be able to break through.
If you can't love that storyline, I'm fascinated by it.
You can't, but I but I'm going to be as much as I'm a I'm an advocate of this moment for for for independence. If you can't win now, I don't think the water is going to ever be any better. Well, and so if it does party identification, it doesn't work now, it's not going to work galas party identification.
I think Democrats and Republican party ID is at twenty seven percent lower and Independence at forty five. I mean, so it say to your point, like, if you can't win with people hating the two political parties, I don't know when you do it.
All right, let me really get you out of hearing this. Do you read Carl Hyson? Were you ever a big fan of his? He's a Florida man, right, yeah, yeah.
Arguably he did one of his books. He's like a funny writer. I remember, yes, I need to read more because I remember I liked the one I read.
My frustration with with with Carl is that they haven't made more of his books out of movie strip. Tea's was the first big movie he got, the Burt Reynolds and It's not the sugar industry and it's the book is fantastic. The movie wasn't bad. Burt Reynolds plays a great sleevesball congressman. Yeah, I mean he really, it's it's it was the role our Ferguson he was, he was. It was you know what if you told me it was actually Norm MacDonald playing Burt Reynolds.
That's like one of my favorite impersonations.
It's fantastic because it's not right. That's what's so great about it? It's just not an impersonation. No, but I'm very excited. There's a new Carl Hyson book being turned into to a TV show, and uh, I'm just very excited about it. I think Amazon Prime is going to have it.
What is what book is? R J?
Decker is what the new show? It's on ABC. It's from his book Double Whamming on broadcast broadcast. That's sorry, I thought it was trying not to.
Watch a lot of broadcast TV, Chuck. It doesn't fit with my hipster personality, I know.
But you know, both ABC and CBS are desperate and NBC are desperate to be cool again, so they're green lighting grittier television. I like it, you know, but I'm just very happy. I think more. Look, my favorite Carl Hyson book is called Tour Season. Kay, it is it is? What is it? It's it's a former Miami Dolphin, a former reporter, a Mikasuki Indian, and a Cuban exile I who are sort of this group of guys who are just going to rid Florida of its asshole tourists.
And it's just a it's just I love the concept. I'm already in on the concept.
They never kill anybody. They just let the tourists and the alligators fight it out.
Darwin situations. Yeah it is.
But Carl was a political columnist forever in the Miami Heralds and basically when you chronicle all the crazy Florida man stories that go back, he and Dave Barry, by the way, how great you know, back in the day in the Miami Herald. Dave Barry and carlas I grew up with. And it's like, this is why I got into journalism and newspaper guys, because you had great columnists in my local paper, you know, that were just hilarious. You know, my parents would always go, did you read
what Dave Barry said? Did you read what Carl heist writing.
A sports section with Tony Kornheiser, Mike Wilbon and Shirley Povitch you get of it? Wait, no one would do that that, you would be idiotic.
Yeah. No, at least the Miami Herald still actually wants to publish a Hyatin column every now and then, and at Dave Barry, by the way, Dave Barry is a substack.
I know, and it's funny as hell.
It's really funny. I know he's not everybody's cup of tea, but it's funny.
My wife yells at me because she's like, we just got another charge on your Kindle. How many books can you possibly read? And I was like, if that's my worst vice, so I'm going to go buy to our season. So if my wife yells at you, it's because I blamed you for it.
It's It's fantastic and I believe. I do believe he's one of his fictional characters is who he thinks Lawton Child's would be if he w Yeah, he's got a great lot of Child
