¶ Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck Toddcast!
And joining me now is the longtime friend, longtime colleague, and honestly, we're just having our conversation and we just decided to record it when we check in in politics. Jonathan Martin, the great j mart of political Are you doing brother? Hey, seq thanks for having me. Well, I'm getting you will time stamp this. It's Saturday morning. It is two hours before the launch of the greatest sports season of any given year, which is college football season.
¶ College football kicks off
Week zero, which I am honoring this year because I have great friends who are Iowa State fans, and I'm happy for them that they're over in Dublin enjoying a pint or two as they see the Clones take the case stay of Wildcats. And because the Farm Bowl the Farm Games, calling at Farmageddon.
But you know, Iowa Nebraska would like their nickname back when they started Farmageddon when Nebraska joined the Big Ten, which I thought was a brilliant a brilliant way to name a rivalry that never really existed before Nebraska. I got into the Big Ten, Iowa Nebraska never played and then it was like it was always Iowa State in Nebraska. Because I was ill Big Eight, I got familiar ties to Iowa State. My grandparents both graduated from Iowa State.
My big beef with Iowa State are those school colors. Men, they only go together when you're at an Iowa State dame.
I've done some cool turings to their uniform and recent years age, you know, I don't want to get too deep in the socio socioeconomic culture of Iowa and Kansas, but as you know, from having roots in Iowa, Iowa stayed in case state. Are the aggie schools in Kansas, right, and you know k U and Iowa the liberal arts English majors and the budding lawyers. You know, the farmers and the engineers are going to Ames in Manhattan.
And you know my grandfather was a mechanical engineer, so you're gosh going right. He would say that, and he would say, yeah, you know Iowa, you know he would. You know. It's funny though about islands. As much as there's an Iowa State Iowa rivalry outside the state, you know, all islands root for both schools when they're playing anybody
outside the state. Yes, like there is this weird like, hey, don't pick only we get to pick on each other and each other like some of the no it's not like, you know, the way I feel about the gators and things o the islands. Good people, you know, exactly, and they deserve first in the Nation status. And if they
¶ Democrats debating where to host first primary
don't get it, my second choice is actually Kansas, if I if you know, it's actually not a bad place for you. Andied riff a bit, which is the Democrats are trying to figure out where to go first in the nation and the three states that they're supposedly contemplating.
¶ New Hampshire will be first primary state
To me, I look at what they're doing and it looks like a party in retreat. They're afraid to go anywhere that's remotely leans red. So you're you're reporting that it's going to be New Hampshire.
Yeah, So what my view on this is, Iowa New Hampshire believed they have this like divine right to the first in the Nation primary, which of course drives the other state's crazy chuck. But here's why New Hampshire is different. It's a state of law. It's not a part of an issue. It's run by the State of New Hampshire, not the two parties. They're gonna have it in January or February or wherever. And if they are a leap frogged. Well,
we know what happened in two thousand and eight. We spend New Year's even des molining because the states will just move up their primaries to avoid the leap frog and chuck more to a point, Joe Biden did, obviously, graham damage to his party on a lot of levels.
One of the things that's largely.
Forgotten that he did was he rearranged the primary calendar to ensure his renomination with little challenge, and he threatened to take away New Hampshire's delegates if they still went first. Well, of course they still went first, and guess what happened at the convention last summer in Chicago. Surprise, surprise, Hampshire's delegates were restored. So they fired the one bullet they had, which is we'll take away your delegates, because no, you won't.
You'll give them back up the convention. But here's the problem. The DNC does not look at this as a way to build their party. And what the DNC needs is to expand. This is not a party that's a national party at the moment, right they're basically they cannot compete in about twenty states, and that is not a functioning political party if they go down this road of doctor peting they need. The beauty of what Iowa did is Iowa essentially because it was first in the nation, the
voters became swing voters. Right. This is one of those cases where if you looked at Iowa through one the prism of demographics, the way you look at any other state, it never made sense that it was a swing state for as long as it was. Arguably the reason it was is because it got this outsized attention. Iowan's liked it, and I think Frankly took It's a reminder to me about this before. But I believe you can manufacture a swing state if you treat the voters like swing voters,
they will you. The voters will respond in ducon I mean it is. And that is what I think is the lesson of Frankly. Both Iowa New Hampshire states that
¶ Winning over NH voters doesn't solve Dems issues with rural voters
on paper aren't necessarily purple states the way a Michigan, Wisconsin, the way the actual battleground states look. They look different. But it's because of all this early action and the early exposure. The voters, Frankly do wait and they do kind of want to be persuaded. So and the Democratic parties. Problems in rural America don't get solved by being in New Hampshire. Okay, rural New Hampshire is not rural Iowa or rural Nebraskar world. Lessing about it, right, it's more
ll being than this car heard. Oh there's some car here in the and by the way, and that's not right. There's certainly some right. Look, you spend a lot of time, and I know the main.
Second disc aren't spending their time. I'm merlin right there their enfortments that are.
You know, keen not. I mean during the caucusses, there's almost a premium put on the candidates that do the ninety nine counties, right, they like brag about it. It's sort of a part of the it's part of the DNA. So it's a I find, you know, but my gosh, I mean, Jonathan, can you remember a time when that the the functioning leaders of the Democratic Party were this week?
And no, I mean the two congressional leaders have profoile challenges.
The governors obviously have talent. They're the strength the.
Governor the the parties for we have five podcasts onto this, but the parties themselves are so weak now that it doesn't matter who the chairman is. The party itself just doesn't have the cloud that it once did because they don't have the tools.
They once had.
And for all the reasons we know, a small dollar giving social media, you know, uh agmented traditional media has.
¶ Iowa won't move back to first in the nation status
Made it so those folks just don't have the will have the change. But the one thing they do control is the calendar. And so here we have because you know, I will say, Jock, I think Iowa is not coming back, even if Rob sand wins the governorship. I do. I think if he wins the governorship, I think the calendar is set by November twenty second. He was too late. You know. Well, by the way, speaking of the DNC,
¶ Democrats vacate endorsement of DSA candidate in Minneapolis
are they about to have a mess on their hands in Minnesota. They're going to bring the entire DNC to Minnesota and have this fight with the socialists.
It's amazing, you know, when it rains in Forest man, right, you're about to have hit the DNC meeting, and yeah, why not expose one of the biggest visures in the party.
And I know it's just just a filthy and if you haven't paid attention to Minneapolis mayor's race, suddenly that the state party up there is pulling an endorsement of the challenger who won the state Minnesota DFL politics, you can win a party endorsement at a convention without the voters and all this, and so a Socialist at DSA candidate that Democratic Socialists won the nomination, he sort of
gained the system. Which is a reminder that just like the RNC was infiltrated by Ron Paul acolytes who became mega people and took over the mechanics of these state parties, the DSA is doing the same thing in a lot of states, aren't they, Jonathan, Yes, No, no, absolutely, most prominently in New York, where they're about to like to mayor, the biggest city in the country. But yeah, yeah, no, I.
Mean, there's lots you can do with the weekend party to basically go into it and sort of take it over, all.
Right, Chuck, is a story.
Is a story that obviously the up has been living through for the last ten years. Trump beckwor took over that party, and part of the reason why he did was because they were so concerned in twenty fifteen that he would take his ball and go home, and so they they couldn't keep him out and so instead they brought him in and he turns out he took over
the party. I keep thinking about, by the way, the what if if Trump, if Ryan's previous and other sort of party fathers had had really come down hard on him in twenty fifteen, I think Trump would have been tempted to create what we're seeing today in the UK.
And I'm not sure that Trump would have had the attention span to do it. That's what I think. I don't think he would have had the follow through. But Nigel Faraj has effectively marginalized one of Britain's two great traditional parties, the Tories, by creating his own reform party, and which can I do? Like, I would have more faith than Nigel Farage to have the attention span to
¶ The two traditional parties are incredibly weak
focus versus Trump that Stan does.
I mean, I'm like, you know, he's proven that, but Brexit on board. So but yeah, no, I mean, the common threat is either side of the Atlantic, the traditional parties are just are just a shadow of what they were.
So my sort of opener today for this before before people listen to you, is about sort of this weird August we've been through, and I think sometimes and I know you will appreciate this right August for any other entity, at any other time in our politics. For my thirty five years in Washington, August has been this sort of time to reset. If you had a major thing you wanted to do, you didn't want to do it in August, you waited until September, or you hurried up and did
it in July. That's not how Trump rolls, right. Trump just wants you know, as I say, I call it motion, even if there's no movement, right, He's always rocking the boat, even if it's anchored to the ground. Totally, this has been quite I mean, think about the list of stuff that's happened versus what how much of it matters? Right,
¶ Trump is creating a lot of noise, but can't distract from economy
We've had the We've had two summits involving Russia and Ukraine that appear to have done nothing. We've had We've we just had. Now let's we can work backwards. The FBI raiding John Bolton's house to be weaponisizing of the FBI. We've got suddenly the government is Donald trump version of socialism with intel ten percent that the federal takeover of Washington, DC manufactured. Interview with Gallainne Maxwell that they released make
it look like they've released something. I mean, it's actually been amazing the stuff he's sort of thrown up there. But in all this sort of noise and nonsense, we still have an economy that's that's in really tough shape, and I don't know if Trump can distract his way out of it. Yeah.
One of the most famous examples of what you're alluding to, which is a sort of a fascination of mine has been for a long time, which is this idea that nothing happens at August was Andy Carr famously gave a quote to The New York Times Elizabeth B.
Miller in twenty twenty two saying, you don't roll out any twenty oh too long. Yeah, yeah, until after labor talking about the Iraq War by right, right, it was the Iraq War.
Right, You don't roll down puff delay with it at any event. Infamy.
Yeah, No, it's old cliche in Washington, nothing happens in August. I actually have written something about this years ago that it's not true of that ton of historic events have taken away small August. But no, no, Trump doesn't do vacing.
He plays a lot of golf, obviously, and takes in a lot of TV.
But he's not a vacation guy. He's not going to deal with his wife and kids. Doesn't sit down. Hey, why don't we play monopoly like my kids love when
¶ Trump's ultimate goal is attention 24/7
we're when we're not at home. That's the one time dad will play board games right now, but I will.
You know, there's no off switch with Trump, right, It's always on, and so I think put your finger on it. It's constant motion. And really the point for Trump is the attention, right, The publicity is the point. I always chuckle when his dad said he's the most transparent president in his story.
Well, yeah, because the point is to the attention every day. And so what you want to be on TV every day?
That's going to lead you to go face the cameras every day because he wants me the Stararu Show seven days a week. Right, So yeah, he's always going to do stuff that's going to make him center stage. It's a one man act. And here we are, and so
¶ Tariff impacts are starting to show up
but to me, chucks, I keep thinking about this too, which is at some point you have to think that the tariffs are going to start pinching, right, at some point.
They are now, I mean, you know there's these little anecdotes. I mean, I've had my own personal anecdotes. I buy all my chicken a Trader Joe's. They don't offer it in four packs. It's now three packs for the same price for chicken thighs shrinkflation. It was at the DFW airport earlier this week and I'm having ordering a couple of eggs and the guy says, sorry, hey, the price changed. We charged six dollars an egg. Right now we have
a six dollars search charge on eggs. And he says, My boss says, we lose money if we charge the price that's on the menu. And you're sitting there going, you know, and this the fact is yet you're already getting gouged in airport. So the gouge of the gouge is there. And so I know, nobody's shocked when you're guage at an airport. But these are these little things. You see it all over the grocery store. Everything's gone up. Every streaming service has raised their price in the last
two power bills are higher. Everything is higher. I don't know how he can. You know, that's something you can't distract away from.
Right right, But you know, Trump is. It's interesting for all the damage he did to Biden non inflation, his fascination with the word groceries being one of my favorite examples of that. There's this new word called crux for everybody's saying it's like an old fashioned word, groceries. Trump cares more about the stock market than the price of goods.
Right, because Steve Moore was my guest this week on newspaper and he said, Steve Moore said, the only thing that he will react that the cheap advisor is not a person, it's the market. Yeah, I've said this a thousand times. Trump is moved by two things and they're inn connected. Press coverage and the markets. Those are those
¶ Trump is desperate to bring down interest rates
are the institutional courses that chef Trump.
It's not leave the alls, right, And he does care about the markets. And so this is why he's so consumed with getting Jay Powell to lower interest rates because he knows that what will happen is what we saw Friday when Pale hinted at his speech in Jackson Hole that it's time to bring down rates. In September, Oh my gosh, right, the market zooms, and so Trump is just dying to bring down interest rates because he cares entirely about moving the market north.
Well, as Steve mar told me, you know why he wants to bring that interest rates because he's a real estate guy. I'm about it fascinating that a Trump defender, and Steve Moore is a Trump defender, is somebody that can't ignore the reality, which is, well, he thinks of everything like he does. It's real estate business, and how do you refinance debt? You do it at a lower interest rate. But I mean, I feel like you're right.
The elephant in the room as we get closer to twenty six is is the cost of good I just think it's what was so devastating to Biden.
I think it's still out there and for all of the the sort of bread and circus, if you will, that Trump puts on every day.
If people are.
Paying more in the economy is non good shape, that's
¶ Trump will use the power of government to affect elections
going to be a problem.
No, No, it's it seems that's something he can't he can't totally erase away with this showmanship. But let's talk about the John Bolden thing here a minute, because I want to connect it to something else that also happened this week, which is there's the Trump administration will use the government to try to impact elections. I know you
pay attention a lot to Virginia regularly. Right, Look at the Justice Department is suddenly deciding to target Fairfax County in Arlington County schools, right, geez, what's going Is there an election coming up in sixty to ninety days? Yeah, and you and I see the John Bolton thing in the fall of twenty six. If Democrats look like they're poised to pick up Senate seats and win the House, I wouldn't want to be a nominee in a swing state because I have a feeling I might have an
IRS investigation, a maybe an FBI investigation. You know, all you have to do is announce something they may not like. I don't think John, but there's not gonna be a grand jury with John Bolton. I bet you what we saw Friday is that is the is the some of
¶ Texas redraw shows Trump is desperate to avoid third impeachment
the parts on that one, because there's probably no there there, and yet it was the you know, the point was to create the headline. Right, And so no matter what you google, John Bolton, FBI raid and that's all Donald Trump wants.
I could if I agree more, We're going to see this in twenty six the Texas. The Texas redraw is only the beginning and not the beginning of reapportionment play, although it's certainly in the beginning of that.
And then then that's going to be a master of the next six days, eight months. It's the beginning of Trump's campaign to avoid a third impeachment. He's consumed with not being impeached for a third time.
He will do whatever it takes to keep the House. That starts with, you're right, that starts with trying to grab more seats through a mid decade redraw. But I think you're right. I think next summer in fall, if there are districts where you got to go into and you sort of, you know, damage an incumbent or damage the challenger.
Absolutely WHATEVERD and BO. Mortgage fraud, Hey, look, brgetraud. What what are you talking about? Right? And then you have to read the details. Oh, I don't think it's mortgage fraud. But the headline is the headline, right, like it's coming up. And what's to say?
What's to say that even after the election, if there's
¶ Could Mike Johnson refuse to seat a new congress?
a contested result, or California has taken a long time like it sometimes can, what's to say that you wouldn't just just tell Mike Johnson don't see those folks, you know.
Right, don't adjournlection? Yeah, how about Donna darn if he tries that, are sure don't start the new Congress. No, absolutely, I mean.
We live in an environment where all of this is totally plausible. Not that we have to, you know, accept that it's just so different from what you and I car wants new and you think about a difficult mid
term for a Republican president. In two thousand and six, there was somebody in suburban Philadelphia, the junkies listening, we'll call it named Curt Weldon who was a longtime house member I think Delaware County, and I think he had his homeer's amice rated in two thousand and six and by Bush's DOJ and lost his lost his his reelection.
¶ DOJ releases Ghislaine Maxwell testimony to appease base
I meated this. Here's a question for you, Chuck, Will Donald Trump's Department of Justice indict a single high profile Trump supporter for any white collar crime the next three years? No, no, no chance, no chance. Look at this Maxwell for what do we do it? You know, by the way, look at this Maxwell thing. So yours to tell me that Trump's personal lawyer who now has a as a Senate confirmed Justice Department official after dangling a pardoner a commutation
interviews Maxwell. Maxwell goes, my favorite part of the transcript is she says, hey, can I add something here. It's almost like the lawyer said, hey, you haven't like sucked up to Trump enough in your in your hand, yes, kitty, And so she adds this statement more clearing of Trump. And then the Justice Department releases the transcript as if they're being transparent, right, like, pay no attention to the
actual supposed Epstein files that have been buried for years. Oh, by the way, we're going to we're going to try to get a judge to release grand jury testimony because that's something that never happens. You know. They I admire the attempt to look like they're trying when they it was painfully obvious they didn't want to release anything that they had, but they want to look like they're releasing
something to feed, uh, to feed their base. And they just did it with the Max fire right, Yeah exactly, Yeah, No, it's it's but it does show you how, you know, he really has turned the FBI in the Justice Department.
¶ DOJ's reputation will take years to recover
I mean, I don't think right now, I don't think if an FBI official showed up at my house, I wouldn't believe the charges obviously because I don't don't commit any crimes. But it would be like, I just think that the FBI is is, its reputation is, it's going to take a long time to recover. Well cash Ptel said before they raided Bolt and the sort of you know, I guess he's chasing online cloud even though he runs to the FBI. No one's above the law. Okay, well, well that's the Cordash. Yeah.
So I'll be waiting with baited breath for again a single high profile Trump supporter who will be indicted for white color crime the next three years. Here, I'm I'm waiting.
Now, you'll be if you hold your breath, you'll die because.
If you were, if you really a member of Congress or a sounder for Trump, you take a bag of cash and you know you can get away with anything.
At this point, let's talk about the redistricting reaction of the Democrats. I watched Obama indorset right that they put out that statement that's basically trying to convince good government Democrats that disenfranchising voters in California is okay, as long as it's done temporarily and with another goal in mind. I just I just cannot sit here. I find it. Oh, we're supposed to believe by the way, the whole that's
you know what that sounded like to me? Remember that flight ninety three essay essay, which is, look, there's an existential threat stopping Hillary Clinton, no matter how corrupt Donald Trump is, no matter how flawed of a characters you have to How is that any different than Barack Obama's argument about supporting undemocratic this undemocratic redistricting. I understand the frustration. Okay, I get it, and I will say this, At least
¶ Democrats get no credit when being fair on redistricting
Californians get to vote on this, all right, they get to decide whether they wanted to do this or not. Okay, but what a colossal waste of money, I think. And you're going to alienate an ally and Arnold Schwartzeneker tiboot which.
I And this is what drives so many NASA were foremanded Democrats crazy, including the congressman named Brendan Boyle in Philadelphia, who is this gun's a blazon on this stuff? He says, you know, we we do all this Google reform stuff to create these conditions to do fedal longs or whatever, but we get no credit for it. And also it doesn't help us politically, and like there's no chance in hell of it, like red state governors within a million years do something like this. But Obama is wedded to
¶ Obama gives his blessing to redistricting effort
as big as Eric hores ag you know, part of this national reapportionment project, and you know they want to do a fair lines ostensibly. Well no, actually a lot of your Democratic the others don't want to do a fair lines.
They want to use this for what it's always been done.
It's just a graph board seat because guess while the other guys are doing the same. And if you're not, then you're not fighting an you know, a fair fight here. But I think the Democrats Albadama is engaged at all in this. Why is he weighing in on the stuff.
There's lives think they were trying to get because they're desperate for donors. I think there's some donors that don't are I'm not sure whether they should go all in on this, and I think they needed Obama sigives. Yeah, it's okay, I'm okay with this, but I have to
¶ Are Democrats ceding "adult in the room" status?
tell you. I think the reason the Democratic Party has had a messaging problem for a decade, but they've been very competitive. And I think they've been competitive for one reason. Voters believe that Democrats were the adult in the room. The minute the Democrats give up adult in the room status, I think they alienate sie of voters That cost them more than I know they feel. This makes you feel good, This makes the base feel, hey, you're fighting. You know. Hey,
that's great, Gavin Newsom, all caps is awesome. Okay, I don't think you're winning over a swing voter with this. I'm sorry. Yeah, I just think that that ship sailed after Biden because the whole premise of Biden Chuck was it doesn't have to be like this America. But Biden didn't govern that way. Biden governed as a left winger for the first two years when Ron Klain basically opened the door to every progressive idea in America, and it didn't get shut. It didn't get shut until Jeff Zion
showed up. But it was too late. I mean, I disagree, I understand what you're saying. The perception is Biden was a failure because they tried to moderate and it failed. No, it was a failure because he tried to govern as a left winger and it was a failure.
¶ Biden overreached beyond his mandate
Do wonder what history looks like if Biden comes in in January of twenty twenty one with Mitch McConnell as the Senate majority leader, because they only win one of those two seats in Georgia, right, I mean history turns on small things.
It was specials in Georgia. And in the words of Abigail Spanburger, nobody elected FDR.
Yeah, and that was a really good reporter. She gave that quote to Whatever happened to that guy? He used to wear it for the New York Times.
Oh, I know that was me. By the way, A fun fact about that that quote. That's the day after.
Mccalliff loses the gov race in twenty twenty one, when Biden's numbers are really going south after Afghanistan, and Spanberger is speaking for the frustrations of a lot of moderate Democrats, which is, we did not elect you to be FDR. Right, we'velected you to get shipped done and bring the country together. So flash forward a year from that conversation. Spanberger's own re election.
In twenty twenty two.
Is call pretty early in the night and Biden calls her. He's calling everybody who won the say congratulations, and she picks up the phone and said, this is Franklin.
It's a pretty good line, it is. But it's aware a year later about that, I mean, by the way, I mean, is it that such a reminder? Presidents here, every criticism, every criticism, right, Trump here, every criticism. Biden heard, every criticism. Trust me, I've leveled some and I have heard.
¶ Redistricting will be a massive legal mess
Let's just say, I'm a little scared of driving through the state of Delaware lately. Stay a mon, Yeah, I have to stay away if I'm not going to any art exhibits on that front.
But so what do we think here, Chuck, this is going to be such a legal I don't think people realize just how.
Many states are going to jump in the court funding suits courts. And here's what is it going to do to action appetune candidates. You're going to have people like I don't know what lines I'm running in. We may not know the lines until a certain date. And this is just its madness, right, and we saw that Trump is you know, this is a what's funny we talked about how weak the parties are. But Trump has created
¶ Trump takes partial state ownership of major companies
a strong Trump Party. Right. It's not a Republican party, it's a Trump party. Right. And this is what a party machine looks like. Right. If people wanted to know what a Tammany hall? What was that one? Right? This is it where he just says, no, you're doing this. It's all personality, right, yeah, right, very personally Hue we long, right, very personality driven. Well, it's all personality driven. It's not
based on the part no movements. Right, this isn't about a larger idea, trust me, what what what is the you know there is no larger idea anymore? Right, this isn't about limiting government. My god. We imagine what would the right be saying if Joe Biden took a ten percent stake in Intel, or or told the video, oh yeah, it's fun if you want to self chip to we need to kick back. Yeah, but you got to give me a taste. I think, as they say in Philadelphia,
give me a toy taste. Give you a little taste, baby. I mean, it would be hilarious if it wasn't so alarming. Uh.
By the way, Mike Murphy has has this great project to which he wants to get every city's reference to.
A bribery.
So like in Philadelphia they said, give me a taste. Yeah, I think it's Chicago Base you got dusted off. My favorite, though, Chuck is getting your peak wet.
I've heard wet yet. I gotta give my beak wet here, you know. So I think that was originally about something else in life, you know, for a young mobster needed to get his beak wet.
Yeah, Florida especially, Yeah, yeah, but in uh right, so
¶ Trump's endorsement is decisive in GOP primaries
so so here we are the year twenty twenty five. Uncle Seam is getting his beak wet with with ten percent of Intel fifty percent of every chip sold at to China.
By the video, he's not a conservative prime it's a Trump project.
But you're right, it does have the the the sort of impact of being a hell of a machine. He saints, all these campaigns you run for this, you do all run for that?
Yeah, I mean he he basically has decided the Florida governor's race, at least in the primary and probably for the general. He just decided Ron de Santis doesn't get depict this person. I do, so, Yeah, I'm gonna mediums, Fyron Donalds. You know, South Carolina and a Republican primary are not great. All that matters those that Trump is still for Lindsay.
As long as Lindsay has that he gets renominated, wins six more years. So, like I joke, like Lindsay could keep doing his codels all over the world and spend half of this time shuttling between you know, Tel aviv Aman and like you know, back to Paris, Brussels in London and never set foot in like Ain or South Carolina or do the oakra straught or like you know, go to Charleston, Columbia, whatever.
Because as long as Trump is four, I'm don't have to break right, I mean, are the only two responsible
¶ Huge reliance on Scott Bessent to keep lid on Trump
people in the Trump White House right now? Rubio invescent because I think about it, if it wasn't for Rubio, Ukraine would already be under the bus, and if it wasn't for Bessant, the economy would already be you know, we'd already be in the crapper.
But we can't overemphasize how much there's this credo of in scott we trust, whether it's on Capitol Hill or the financial markets. I mean, the reliance on Besson to keep a lid on Trump is incredible, right, amazing. Yeah, And in some ways all the threats against Powell are kind of ignored at this point because they don't think Trump will actually act on it. It's kind of the ultimate taco trade. He's never going to actually threaten, how beyond just renting. But boy, the second beston is gone.
You can see the nervousness, you know.
Yeah, no, because if it's if you end up with somebody more like Lutnik, who really is sort of I had somebody describe it to me on the news for show earlier this week and said, there are times when Besson's in the room and lawmakers will say, boy, I'm glad, or when LEUTNX in the room, I'm glad Lutnik was in the room. And literally the next day they'll be
why was Lutnik in the room. He sort of ruined everything, right, because it's it's sort of Lutnik just reads Trump and whatever he thinks Trump's wants to hear, and he'll blow up a meeting versus Besson, who knows what the endgame is and tries to figure out how to get Trump there. And sometimes it'll be like, all right, let's let's end the meeting. We're not going to get him there today, right, Like Besson knows how to know, still wants to get the end game.
Lutnik just wants to suck up to Trump. Well, I mean famously they the week of Liberation Day, Besson rushes over from Treasury to the White House when they know that Navarro is not around, and got to Trump. It's said, are you seeing the bond markets? Man like, yep, we can't do this, and you know Trump Trump responds, you know.
So I want to pivot a little bit to twenty twenty five and these elections. If I were to spend
¶ New Jersey governor race will be a bellwether for the midterms
time in one place, I would probably stay in New Jersey. That I feel like as New Jersey goes, so goes the perception of sort of the direction of both parties a little bit that New Jersey will tell me, you know, how much how much progress did Trump make in sort of in the suburbs in twenty twenty four and did it stick? Right? Is Mom Donnie a problem with suburban voters in northern New Jersey? And is that something that's
going to be exploitable in twenty six? The point is that I feel like New Jersey governor might be the most interesting, you know, Mom, Donnie's you know, I think we know the results going to be, we just don't know the margin. I think we have the same feeling about Virginia. Obviously, the California referendum becomes a different type of election night, and it's California, which means it's going to take three weeks to find out what the actual result is. But that New Jersey will sort of tell
to me, tell us more. It's also hard for.
A political party to keep the governor's mansion for a third straight term one hundred percent. Governor Murphy's numbers are not great right now. Broadly speaking, in Jersey voters you're always cranky because taxes are so Jersey. They are inherently some of the crankiest voters in the country, right, So yeah, all that's challenging. Plus something ow I think Jersey has just gotten Trump here, right, and I just think a lot of the voters, especially in South Jersey, you know,
parts of coastal Jersey. I think they call it the Jersey Shore. I believe Chuck so I hear. Yeah, it's just a Trump of your place, you know, like his style his affact.
That's fine with a lot of Jerseys. So yeah, I look.
¶ Mikie Sherrill bungled her answer on Mamdani
But at the same time, Democrats nominated you know, minkey Cheryl. You could drop her in Minnesota, Arizona, Washington State.
Right, she bungled mom, Donnie, though she bungled the answer, right, The easy answer is, I don't the New Yorkers want New Jersey people to tell you who to vote for, and New Jersey and certainly don't want New Yorkers to tell them who to vote for. But instead she first said she she got the first time she was asked. She was asked on NSBC, so she felt like she had to say nice things my mom, Donnie. Now they claim they've not endorsed. But of course, you know, she
she got caught in the worst possible situation. She kind of supported then wants to back off, so now it looks like she's scared. So she's pissed off the base and she's pissed off the metal. I mean, just a total miss. That was just a rankly as a friend
¶ Trump is sympathetic to Ciattarelli
of mine said, you know, you guys love to use this phrase political athlete. That was in a very athletic move by her, And I'm like, yeah, you're right.
I had one more thing on New Jersey too, which is that Trump is much more sympathetic Jack Chitdarelli.
But he has went some seers forced all economy for governor who came around, became a Trumper ran.
A pretty competitive reach. I think it was like three change points against Murphy four years ago. Correct, it was the pole's miss hit.
By the way, New Jersey polling always is very, very erratic for what it's worth.
So I say all that, dude, I kind of wonder will Trump not not only you know, it really helped chet A rally behind the scenes, but also can Trump get more money to Chedter out right?
I look, I will tell you this. My spies on the ground tell me Chittarelli is working harder. He's really that there is he's learned some Look, running before and narrowly losing and not losing your mind is actually a pretty good recipe in governors. There's quite a few governors who lost the first time they ran. Yeah, that is not that you know, especially if you didn't try to go do something else right, You come back and you do it again and this time it's an open seat.
Like how often have we seen that you come close
¶ Ciattarelli has a Chris Christie quality to him
against an incumbent, you don't quite get there. Because I always say this, the second hardest thing to do is to defeat a governor and a primary. The hardest thing to do is to defeat a president in a primary. Right like these are the defeating a governor in primary ordinarily difficult. Defeating a governor in general extraordinarily difficult. It doesn't happen very often. So we only had one in the twenty twenty two midterms, and sitting governor lose, and
so it is. It is not easy. This is why you know, I do think Democrats nominated the best possible candidate. But you know it is Chitarelli feels like Christi to me, and I mean that as a compliment, a little Christie in him. That feels like Christy had that right, Christy had that right. Balance of Jersey and as you just said, there's just something Jersey about Cheddarelli that that is that makes a New Jersey person comfortable.
The difference is that the deeper polarization and frankly nationalization of politics between two thousand and nine and twenty twenty five, there's just a lot of folks in New Jersey who are like Mikey.
Cheryl who aren't from there.
Who are you know, suburban college educated people who find Trump to be anathema to everything that they stand and are never going to vote for the Trump part?
You know, isn't it interesting? How many? It's funny you bring that up. Right, You've got like John Corzine was not from New Jersey. Right, you have Cheryl not from New Jersey, Booker. Booker didn't, he wasn't born and raised born in New Jersey. Wasn't Corey did grow up in Jersey? Or he is a New Jersey person, but there is
¶ Sherrill would be the least "Jersey" governor
some history of that. Yeah, obviously Bill Bradley Missouri, right. I think both Bill Bradley and Corson grew up and were born in Missouri.
Right In the Bill Bradley from Crystal City, Missouri, south of Saint Louis, and it comes to east to go to Princeton Corps.
Corson grow up I think a farm in Illinois, Illinois. I think you're right.
It's funny you mentioned this because I actually had this conversation with a prominent New.
Jersey in earlier this year, and my question was, would Mikey.
Cheryl be the least Jersey Jersey governor ever governor in modern history, because she is much more of a kind of Tgi Ford is that figure you could drop her Eddie strim All in America. And by the way, I don't see as a criticism, of.
Course that's you don't know. Well, there's a remind I know that the suburbs, the suburbs are more like you know, the suburbs of Atlanta and the suburbs of Milwaukee have more in common than Milwaukee has with with with Oshkosh or Atlanta has with the Marjorie Taylor Green District.
Yeah, and uh, I think the end I mean the cours isn was on Farmakive in Illinois, but she was a banker of Goldman, the kind of lived in northern New Jersey, and that's certainly a Jersey archtype. Tom Kane and Christie Todd Whitman were kind of both to the man or born and have the accent. But that's also a kind of Jersey arc time. There's a lot of old money in New Jersey. And obviously Christie, for reasons
that we all know, is very Jersey. So I think she is maybe that the sort of least Jersey Jersey figure in modern times, who would the governor?
Let me wrap with this Labor Day brings, right, Labor
¶ Will any Republican senators announce retirement?
Day before the Labor day before the next election year is usually the start of the official sort of the more official start of the cycle. Right that it's really an eight you know, it's an eighteen month drive, right, fifteen month sprint to election day midterms twenty twenty six, which means we are going to get a handful of members who decide not to seek If they decide they're not going to seek reelection. This is kind of the
last accepted exit ramp, which is Labor Day this September move. Now, look, we've got the House is a mess because of all the remaps, right, so that's going to in some ways that's a delayed thing. But let's talk about the Senate. Right, we've got Joni Ernst, who we don't know what she's going to do. I think that's still an open question. Susan Collins feels a little more of an open question,
I think, but you tell me. But I feel like we're still we're still in the zone of we could have two or three more retirements, especially when people start to look at this. I think the spring of twenty six. If we're not in recession, we're awfully close. So if you're worried about if you don't really want to, if you're looking at a third or fourth term, and you're in the president's party, you might side I can't do it,
I'm out. Oh yeah, I mean I think I think the uncertainty about the lines and the chaos next year will drive some vogues away in the next month or two. I totally agree with that.
In the Senate, I think i'd split Ernston Collin to the Ernst unlikely to run for re election.
I think the party rallies in less than twenty.
Four hours around oh fort your fucking names, so.
Actually Hintston Hintson hintsion. Yeah, I agree with that. Open to look, I think I was going to be one of the great state Oh you're fine, you're fine, Ashley. I would split the I would split Ernston Collins. I think Ernst does not run again.
The party rallies around, actually, Hintson, the twenty four hours she's the congress woman from Cedar Rapids. I think that's
¶ Sherrod Brown's outlook in Ohio senate race
a pretty clean extraction. I do think Colin's ultimately runs again. She waited so long to have the gallole A Senate appropriations in some ways traffic now that they're doing all these precisions, which kind of takes away back.
I do spending bills even matter anymore if the Trump administration.
I mean all the Southerners, right Cochrane Shelby who held office so long, she currently gets the GOB a lot appropriate. I don't think she wants to give that up too soon. I think Collins does run again for re election. But yeah, I think in the House, certainly we're going to see a lot of folks who just say this ain't worth it anymore. Where are you on Shared Brown? I mean he was running for governor. I wrote about this in May. I think he was leading that way. I think a
couple of things happened. I think Schumer is very persuasive when it comes to recruiting folks for the Senate. I think he wants redemption for the Senate said he lost, he's a man of the Senate. I also think Chuck that he got promised a lot of money from Schumer that the DGA simply cannot guarantee in a red state open seat race. There's just not the money for a
Democratic gov. Keep in read America that there is for any high profile Democratic Senate can't It's just I hear that, and I just feel like it's just such a miscalculation. I think Ramaswami is the most vulnerable potential. If you were the Democrats and said, if we have to run against anybody, you'd want a guy who's tied to Medicaid cuts, who's tied to the weirdness of Elon Musk and Kennemine. Uh you know, like I to me Ramaswamy, like I think John Houston.
Here's here's why I'm I. Look, it's an easier commute
¶ Brown's prize for winning is an election in two years
if you're ran Glumbus. I give Schumer credit for persuading Brown, because if you couldn't get Brown, you couldn't put that race in play, right, But who's the incumbent, Houston or Brown? I know, I know, right what a voters thing? I think. If I'm John Houston, I could say, Hey, I just got here. This guy keeps wanting to come back. Why is that?
I'm sure Schumer said, you know the history of appointees, shareed you know those who are appointed are we And there's truth to that.
Okay, but guess what happens if if you know what the prize for shared Brown's victory is, he has to run again in two years, So two hundred million dollar races in a presidential cycle in a red state, which was that when Jade Vance might be on the top of the ticket, which is why he lost last year. I just yeah, I think the gov path was I can't believe Brown got talked into this. And I mean, like I said, you're right, Schumer deserves credit for his
powers of persuasion. Yeah, all right, I give him that. It just feels like a I think it's a tougher race for Brown and also than they sold to him. It's easier to win a red state away game if you're a Democrat running for Gold then this Senate because the issues are different. Look, I am, I was a I was a literally a fly on the wall for a polling presentation for Amy, acting that it was designed to be semi public like they one, I get, you know,
And it was. It was from Molly Murphy, who's who's a really good bolster the Democratic side, and it was now, in hindsight, it's obvious they put that and they knew what Brown was going to do, so they were given a like, you know, hey, go go make your case. You're you're likely going to be the nominee now. And look the ramas Swammy numbers are I mean, the fact is, and I don't And it's possible that in a lesser known candidate like Acton can make Ramaswami a referendum, and
maybe Shared Brown couldn't. Right, like, in a weird way you might, you might say that actually being a slightly lower profile where the big the other person about the other person, Which is why I think it is why Shared Brown has a harder time in that race, because who's the go back, who's the incumbent? You know, but
¶ Democrats too focused on DC rather than states
Chuck who share a raising money for from running for a golvnor And you should check out how much Ramaswam he already has on hand too. Oh I know, Oh, I know it is. It's a mountain of crypto money. I know, I know.
This is the Democrats problem that you go to Hollywood, you go to the Upper West Side of Manhattan, you go to the vacation enclaves all around Martha's Vinue.
You're ready for the Senate. You're running for the Senate.
You can clean up, You're running for Dove and you're talking about issues facing the budget in Columbus next year.
Yeah, their eyes closed over man, you know. And yet this is why the Democratic Party is not a national party anymore, right it is. It is just a Washington party. They're constantly trying to get part of power in Washington, failing to realize that if they don't have power in the States, it's that much harder to get power in Washington. Yeah, they got a following the way to start getting money down and thinking.
Now. I will say that there has been an effort when it comes to secretaries of state to really drive
¶ Which college football games will you attend?
home the importance of the attorneys general.
I feel like trial lawyers in particularly have been tapped in to those races in a more effective way than you've seen. You don't see the global.
The global effort to help state capital democrats in ways that they.
Got to have you know, you're right, yeah, all right, who's your what's your college football attendance schedule? Hopefully robust. I've got a I've got a full calendar right now, at least through November. One brother, I got Miami Notre Dame. I got Miami versus Florida. I've got Miami versus Florida State. I've got SMU versus Miami. Do you see a theme here? I got s m U Miami's. Miami's first road game outside the state of Florida is at s m U in Dallas November first. Their third road game out in
Florida is November. How about that? Because they're they're on the road in Tallahassee. They're exactly so, and uh, you know, so that's that's my schedule. That's my schedule so far. It's my first real college football freedom scheduled. Last twenty twenty four, I didn't have this freedom. You are you are, You're a little more. L s U yeah and TCU right, yeah, yeah,
¶ LSU needs to make a playoff run for Kelly to keep his job
we love that.
We love the frogs uh and they have that that dream, that dream march of the national title game.
But I feel like I thought this is going to be a good year for LSU. Chuck, I'm really liking, Well, what if it's not right? I mean, Brian Kelly, this is this is a classic case where he either wins the national title or he's fired, like it is it is Glen Garry, Glenn Ross, right, I.
Don't think you've got to win the title. I think he's probably got to get to the final four, though, I mean, I gotta get into the playoff. He's playoff. If he doesn't give in the playoff, it's a disaster, right, That's what I mean that the right First place, is this a Cadillac? Second place is you know, playoff? Okay, well you get to keep your job. Third place, you're fired.
Likesc title game but doesn't get to the playoff, He's gone. Nobody cares. You got to make a run in the playoff, and I think they can.
The question I have is is can can they fill in gaps that in the secondary and on the offensive line. I think those are usually uncertain questions that they open at Clemson, l SU keep scheduling these damn tough opener I.
Actually I admire that, and I like, did you see the SEC rules? They're going to go to nine conference games from eight and they have to play one power for opponent. I know, no more. You know, we have to open at Clemson anyway. So if Death Valley versus Death Valley, that's a game that I expected Jonathan Martin to be attending. Well, your Valley of Death, the Battle of the Death Valleys. Yeah, well, first of.
All Clemson in August is not exactly, is not exactly Nanataculo's put it that way.
Seven all Chuck, I would say to be totally key, Tod. I have jinx LSU and so many openers in the last six to seven years that I'm just not going to do it again. Okay at the.
Rose Bowl, neutral sites in New Orleans, neutral site in Las Vegas, they're over. Yeah, They're over, and I'm just not going to do it again. So they will open with out me and I hope that they can.
Get a win.
Look, nuss Meyer's coming back. I think he's going to be one of the top quarterbacks in the country. Amazing receiving corps, develop a running game, offensive line transfers come through.
There's no reason they shouldn't make a run deep in
¶ James Madison becoming the football power in Virginia
the playoffs. No, my favorite group of five team that could make the playoff is James Madison. How are you feeling about your home? Stay fun story? I mean?
And then we're a one double a powerhouse for so many years and they get a bit of an inferiority complex and please no hate mail Duke's and they've made the jump to D one and boy, you know they're doing well and chuck the stadium experience. Just drive down eighty one Harrisonburg. How things like a Taje Mahall. Now it's incredible.
Can I tell you? The other thing is sort of you know how look, college sports does help improve your college application process. And the number of kids in my son's grades, Oh yeah, that preferred James Madison over VA Tech. Ten years ago. Va Tech because of their football prowess, had become really started to rival UVA as a school of interest to a lot of kids in Nova Jake. But now that vo Tech has had, you know, basically
ever since Beamer left, it just they've struggled. And it's James Madison's really the football power of Virginia sr UVA and and it's helped. And you, like my son, he can't believe the number. You know, you got to love snapchat. You can geographically see where all your friends are once college move in was and he looked at he goes, God, I didn't realize how many of my friends were going to James Madison, he goes, I'm glad I didn't end
up there. It to have been like thirteenth grade, but it has really become you know, their advancement in athletics, as I think in everything you hear, it's really improved the entire school's bottom line academically, financially. So I have to admit I'm I'm as a Virginian transplant. You know, I've paid more taxes in Virginia than any other state.
It's kind of it's neat to say. Now it's fun to say. You know, nickname for JMU for a long time was just missed Uva and uh uh bat and sports them in.
They're they're taking all And you know what, James Madison is the fathered the Constitution, and my god, I wish we had more people that followed the Constitution. So full circle, Jock, Full circle, My friend, John and Martin. Enjoy your week zero football games. Let's hear it for the Cyclones. Go Clones. See Robert mary By