Full Episode - Trump Has Two Options For Iran: Escalate… Or Capitulate + Does Georgia Reveal The Future Of Post-Trump Republican Politics?

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free quote at ethos dot com slash chuck. That is ETOs dot com slash chuck. Application times may vary and rates may vary. Well. Hello there, Happy Monday, and welcome to another episode of the Check podcast. I will be honest with you. I sort of have a I have like seventeen thousand topics. I feel like I should share a few a few quick takes for you on or a few different ways to be thinking about it, or at least share with you how I how I'm thinking

about it and see how much that informs you. That's one thing I try not to do is I'm not trying to tell you what you think. I'm trying to sort of lay out, lay out a structure to understand why whatever the situation is we're in. Look, there were two dominant stories that I'm going to spend a lot of time on. Obviously, the biggest one is Iran. Iran sort of is everything because of its massive impact on the global economy, which of course means our economy, which

of course means Campaign twenty twenty six. But the Eric Swawell implosion out in California also is a really really b FD, as Joe Biden might whisper in the ear of Barack Obama, and it's something that we need to spend a lot of time on because it's actually two stories. Right. One, it's going to trigger a bunch of show votes in cong VERUS, so Congress can make itself feel better by kicking out men behaving badly. But the other shakeup is

what's going to happen in California. I think what we will we know for sure, and I think this has now been more likely than we You know, I just think now the swallow thing trigger it. Here's the bottom line. There's going to be another election for California governor before twenty thirty. That I promise you. I do not believe whoever wins this governor's race will be able to survive the inevitable recall effort that is coming. We are slip

sliding into one of those Californy governor's races. It's going to look a lot like two thousand and two Gray Avis versus Bill Simon, where everybody hates their choices. So those are the two dominant stories. A bunch of other stuff percolating. Not going to leave it on the cutting room floor. I want to want to get to a bunch of it. My guest Martha z Aller, and she's

really interesting. She's a conservative talk radio host in Georgia, but she's not somebody who's sort of stuck in her own bubble. And you know, as you know, I'm always desperate to find people not stuck in their bubble. I don't you know mine left and right, you know, center, progressive, you name it. It's that you accept the premise that you may believe you're right, but not everybody agrees with you.

The point is, I think Martha will give us a nice little I think she did, certainly she did for me, give us a nice little insight on where the Georgia Republican Party is. I think it's the most interesting Republican party in the country because it's no less conservative than it's been. But it is interesting that the that the Republicans who feel the most comfortable pushing back at Trump, other than Utah, which pushes back more on character the

publicans in that state. It really there is a bit of it's both character driven in policy driven. Right, both Brian Kemp and Marjorie Taylor Green have separated themselves with Trump and lived to see another day. So I just think what's happening inside the Georgia Republican Party is interesting, and Martha's got her finger on it, and she's sort of she's got feet in all the camps, and I think there's a lot to learn and it's very instructive.

I hope it's instructive for you about where the GOP is headed as it transitions from a Trump party to

a post Trump party. But let's get to Iran. So the ceasefire is I guess kind of intact, but make no mistake, a naval blockade, which President Trump ordered on Sunday is an act of war. That's you know, that is what it is. Now we are still at war with Iran. I think Iran still at war with us. The question is does either country break the ceasefire? Is

this considered breaking of the ceasefire? Will the Iranians respond or just part of a stalemate until we hit the end of the two weeks or until we see negotiations pick up. Because one thing that it is important. Neither jd Evans for the American side nor the Iranians indicated that they both behaved as if they knew there would be another round of talks. They didn't say another round was coming, but you get the impression another round is coming.

Still no deal, no framework, and no actual next step just yet. But in some ways the blockade is an acknowledgment by President Trump that the United States has less leverage in this deal than we want to admit. Certainly, you know, the President doesn't want to man it. He keeps declaring victory, and that's a huge problem. If you've won, then why are you negotiating? If you've won Why are

you potentially floating the idea of a joint venture with Iran to patrol and maybe even collect tolls for the straight of Horn moves and the tolls being used as reparations. Right, So,

this is why his rhetoric is not harmless. The stupid rhetoric he makes untruth social, the dumb rhetoric where he beats his checks, declares victory or sort of the secretary of the fence who constantly loves to beat his chest and you know, I guess probably you know, choose on too much creatine before he does any of his press briefings and declares these capital v victories. Okay, then why are we negotiating? Right? So, the bottom line is we

don't have leverage. They do. They came out of this ceasefire with the single most important piece of leverage, control of the straight of Horror moves, control of the global economy, and essentially control right now of the Trump presidency. So that's why Trump in some ways had no choice but to do this with the straight of hormones. The He's got to find and see if he can get some leverage to force the Iranians to back off a little bit. So the question is is there a next step? Right?

I think it. The blockade is intended to get around back to the table and to start having a conversation about the Strait and about the nuclear deal. If there

is no The question though, is will the president escalate further if this does not get the deal he's looking for? Does he then send in ground troops to didn't try to militarily take control of the Straight and essentially operate the Straight in behalf of the world. Now there's all sort of look the where to morning quarterback this war. Obviously, the total misunderstanding of the power of the Strait that the Iranians would have is the initial blunder of this war.

This is the I swear to you, there's WMDs right this. If you're going to say, if there was any like, what is the failure of this administration for going into war? It is underplaying and underrealizing the leverage the Iranians had

with the Strait. And had they understood it from the beginning and they chose to do this, my guess is they would have immediately tried to get control of the Straight first, then you start worrying about everything else. But again, the problem here is the president surrounded himself with sycophants, and even though we have learned that these folks did not want to endorse his strategy, here they were afraid

of telling him the truth. They were afraid of telling they They just danced around the edges of the issues

and allowed him to hear what he wanted. And now we're in this potentially intractable situation that we're in where we may have no choice but escalate because of the initial blunder at the beginning, or you're going to have to cut a deal with the Iranians that leaves the regime in power, legitimizes the regime, gives them acknowledges their control over the Strait, and essentially makes the hardliners like John Bolton are going to wish they had the Iran

nuclear deal, because the best thing that Trump can get now is essentially naftaizing the Iran nuclear deal. And what

do I mean by that by naftaizing? He said he hated NAFTA, so he ripped it up, renegotiated the same deal with the Mexicans and the Canadians and called it us MCA the United States Mexican Canadian right accord whatever. See, there's there's no NAFTA. That's what's coming here. He's gonna hope he can get the Obama nuclear deal. If he's lucky, he can get the Obama Obama nuclear deal. And that's if this this is the best, the best version of this, you know. And again we can sit here and talk

about all the all the problems going into this thing. Right, it was a mistake, and everybody advised him. It was most people around him advised him. It was a mistake outside of John Bolton and and and the Gulf States and Israel. And this is a case where the president consistently listens to outside voices rather than his own military advisors and his own intelligence. He did it all the time in his first term, and he's doing it again in his second term. And that is an issue that

does not get enough attention. He trusts the Israeli intelligence more than he trusts the US intelligence. The Israeli said this was going to be easy regime. James was going to happen and the people were going to rise up, And the CIA said that was bullshit. And the CIA is fronted by somebody who is a trumper, John Radcliffe, who wants to tell Trump what he wants to hear,

but can't bring himself to tell him bullshit. But the President refuses to listen to his own his own folks on that front. So the next look that I expect the markets to panic a bit. I mean, I kind of think they've been under panicking. I'm a bit hopeful that somehow, you know, the resilience of the markets in the past, just like they were during the pandemic, just like they have been during the Russia Ukraine War, that

it's going to happen again. But the lack of a clear resolution it is, you know, here's what we do now. President does not want to restart the war. There's no doubt he probably read rats ever starting it, and considering the situation he's in, you know, he could have you know, in hindsight, right, should he have tried to squeeze him more, Should he have tried to find more ways to isolate Iran, do more to it, to increase the stranglehold so that

the people would rise up and be angry at their leaders, and instead, in a weird way, he's even united. If you guys have started following my friend, my Suzanne kan Poor she's her reporting is indicated that they're you know, even those that don't like this regime, uh now feel as if that it's everybody versus America, which is a very dangerous place to be. And it's you really got to bungle this as badly as this administration has bungled

this to put put ourselves in this situation. Well, we're basically begging iron to come to give us some deal so Trump can save face and the and that's the thing. The Iranians know it.

But it is going to have you know, this is it's going to be it's probably going to be an ugly day in the markets because now whether we're questions, is the straight open or not? Now it's we know it's not open, right, it is definitely closed. But I go back to something right. The problem, Right, the president has already declared victory and he continues to try to declare victory. So if we've already won, why do we have to keep doing all of these things? And this

is the position he's put himself in. Right, when you define victory early then compromise later starts to look like retreat. And right now the Iranians know it, they see it. It looks like retreat because it is retreat. The president can't afford to do this. We didn't have we don't. He can't politically, he does not have the political capital to get even his own party to give him time to put in ground troops to get control the straight.

And you know, he's just you know, and then there's who he is, right, he doesn't have the patience to do things methodically. He's always looking for a shortcut. It's been it's defined his career. And the thing is is that he's had so much success with short cuts that he forgets the failures with shortcuts. That also, right, he was able to become a star because of short cuts,

but bankruptcy. He was still the only one of the few casino operators to find a way to go bankrupt oning casino because he was taking a shortcut on competition

and try to buy up all his competitors. You know, he shortcuted his way into politics, but he didn't really build a coalition in order to support him and use his political capital. So when you take all these shortcuts, right he's trying to shortcut his way into getting an Iranian victory. He's trying to shortcut his way and trying to get a Venezuelan victory. But he's no longer promoting democracy anymore. In America is not on the side of

democratic freedom. We are not on the side of democratic freedom in Venezuela right now, and we're doing a poor job of being on the side of freedom, democratic freedom and Iran. But ultimately that's what you have to remember here. In conflicts like this, the side that understands the other side better usually has the advantage. President Trump does not understand this Iranian regime. He thinks they're all just as transactional as he is. He sees everybody through the himself.

He assumes everybody behaves the way that everybody's motivation is what his motivation is, power, money, et cetera. And he just assumes those same motivations and certainly loosely the motivations are similar, and they may rhyme, but he did not and does not. And you know, again, he didn't bother to study, right. You know, he doesn't listen to the experts who have studied the Iranians for decades, not just weeks, months or even years. He doesn't listen to those experts.

But here we are in some ways, this is this is why Iran is starting to look like our failed military expeditions. Vietnam second Iraq war are the two most are the two biggest ones, and now this one because we succeeded militarily right sort of, but we didn't get our strategic end goal. And even with Iraq we kind of ended up, I guess what we wanted. There is

no a rock with a nuclear program, so that's good. There's no a rock with Saddam Hussein. But boy was the cost worth it? Right? And I think to this day we're not even sure that the cost was worth it. So bottom line is the good news is the talks are going to have There's going to be another round of talks. Both sides did not indicate that there was no room for more talks. This was the first meeting, was always inevitably going to be a feeling out. Meaning.

But I think the one thing that the that President Trump ought to take away is an understanding. And I think again his move to try to blockade the Straight is in some ways any acknowledgment of this, which is he didn't have enough leverage destroy you know, and and you know right now, the Iranians care about one thing,

control of that straight. So Trump is right to try to go after the one thing they care about in order to see if he can regain some leveragere But you know, the most likely endgame here is not a restart of the war. It is not a sending ground troops in to get control of the stray. The most likely dgame here is the Iran Nuclear deal two point zero. Donald Trump will call it then, you know USMCA of Nuclear Deals brand new. It won't do this, won't do that,

but it'll give them some money. And remember, you know why Iran doesn't want to give up the idea that it may never pursue a nuclear weapon Libya. Right, the Libya example is always the reason Libya gave up its nuclear ambition and regime change happened. North Korea has not given up his nuclear ambition, and that Kim Jong n

he just named his daughter the latest air parent. If something happens to him, and we may end up with a fourth generation of North Korean leaders, all because they have a nuclear weapon. So it's not irrational how the Iranians are thinking. Right, this is a case and there's no doubt the United States, the North Korea is a reason why to do whatever it takes to not let Aron get there. Carrots and sticks. Trump has been all stick.

He's going to have to now have to give some carrots, and he ain't gonna like it, and he's going to find out. Remember, we don't trust them and they don't trust us. And in situations like this, whatever agreement you come into is a leap of faith. You're going to have to trust somebody you don't trust. That's why you put in verifications and all sorts of things in there. But it is in if you want to deal, well, it's inevitable you're going to get one where you have

to give up something you don't like. And in that sense, Donald Trump, this is where he is a terrible deal maker. He has never been. He does not believe in win win. He wants to get the best of somebody, and he thinks caving into any demand of the other side makes him look weak. Well, you know what makes him look weak? Presiding over this economy that's deteriorating by the hour. That's

something that makes you look weak. And in case you're wondering the economic hit, it's already happening. Consumer confidence is now lower, lower than it was during the pandemic. We are now in this We're lowest in the Michigan Index. We're talking as bad as the seventies were. And remember we now have a fertilizer issue, We've got food transport issues, and we got supply chain issues. So this is not going to get better anytime soon. This is and we

have not felt the worst parts of this. Every expert said, come about mid April, then all of a sudden, it's going to feel like things went off a cliff. Well, this is the week where we hit mid April gas prices biggest one month spike since the sixties. Hiring is slowing wages are flattening. Uncertain economic future means companies start freezing everything they're doing. You pull back on new investments, you hold off on new hires, because you're not sure

where this economy is going. And in this case, this is why the bad shoots that we're seeing on the economy, and it's opposed to green shoots. It could accelerate because of that situation. Before I leave the Iran issue here,

I know Trump doesn't care about optics anymore, but I thought Marco Rubio might as talks are deteriorating with the war with Iran, which of course is going to probably could probably trigger a global recession. I'm glad to know that the commander in chief and the Secretary of State were whooping it up at a UFC match in Miami. Not the best look, I know. If I were a Republican on the ballot, I'd be like, does the President take any of this seriously? I mean, sometimes is it?

You know, he just, you know, the celebrity parts of the presidency matter more to him than the actual job itself. And it's moments like Saturday night where he's whooping it up at at at a at a at a UFC match while JD. Vance is negotiating in his behalf and having to walk away. And here's the thing, you know, Marco Rubio, you know, you know who would have been really critical of a Secretary of State behaving this way,

Senator Marco Rubio. If John Kerrey at all had done anything even close to this, gone to a Bruce Springsteen concert while there was a negotiation on the rand nuclear dew right, I promise you a Senator Marco Rubio would be beating his chest about it. You have one job. All this stuff. Deep down inside, he knows it's a bad look, you know. And with Rubio and I wonder, look,

I'm some people think I'm too tough on Rubey, and some of you think I give Rubia too much credit. I've heard that too. Oh you keep thinking, you know, when you know, I just know he knows better, and everybody who knows him knows he knows better. And he's allowed himself to get caught up in this. And maybe it's a little celebrity, maybe it's the middle class chip on his shoulder. I get it.

And that was a bad look. And that's one of those that you feel like, I know, nothing matters, right, Trump can shoot somebody and put that on and blah blah blah. But it just chips away again, chips away, chips away. You know, this is serious stuff. I'm sorry they can't they am you know, nobody's saying don't watch the match, but you know, send a message to the country that you're worried about what's happening in their lives. You have made decisions that have upended the lives of

millions of Americans. But I'm glad you're having a good time at a UFC match. That's awesome. That's awesome. Well, this episode of The Chuck Podcast is brought to you by Quints. This time of year always makes me rethink what's in my closet. I'm trying to keep fewer things, but better ones, pieces that are well made, easy to wear all the time. Trust me, I am constantly on this. I have given up ties, so I'm looking for upscale casual, nice casual. Right. That's why I keep coming back to Quints.

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use that code. Speaking of unserious people, let's go talk about Eric Swallaller and the sort of the fall of Eric Swalwell. You know, this is one of those and I've seen some back and forth on this. They're shocked but not surprised, surprised but not shocked, whatever way you want to whatever however you want to use those two words interchangeably. Right. We have this all the time. With Trump, he finds ways to surprise us, even if we're not shocked.

With that, he surprises us. But with Swawell, this is one of those things you're like, well, everybody kind of knew or thought they knew, but the stakes were never high enough where you thought it was important to report about it. All right, That's the best explanation I can

give you as a reporter. And you know, do you chase every rumor and every politician you hear about, because I promise you I've heard a rumor about every single politician that's ever remotely thought about running for president. Swawell run for president there, and I'm sure ninety percent of the rumors are unsubstantiate. The problem is there's always enough things that are true that it makes you constantly in the back of your head as a political reporter. You know,

you file the other accusations away. You're like and you start to like, you know, look for smoke. A lot of times there's no smoke, so you don't keep going. And sometimes you know, look, I know you're if you're

right now still defending Eric Swallow, you'll say, how come this is all coming out right when he's you know, the front runner. Well, a lot of times people have, you know, compartmentalized their bad experiences with somebody until that person's back in the news, or until that person's about to get even more power, and then they think, whoa if I don't speak out now when you know before while they're still a chance if they really believe this

person is too irresponsible to have power. So I think you've got to be careful when you're questioning the timing of accusations. In some ways, the political campaign season, the primary campaign, is exactly when we should be having these, you know, conversations. We're trying to find out who these people are. Do they have the character to handle the job, do they have the qualifications to handle the job? Do

they have the knowledge to handle the job. So, you know, in Swalwell's problem here is that he's only denying a crime. I did not sexually assault anybody. He's saying, he's not denying that he had a wondering eye. And unfortunately, for those of us that have covered Washington for as long as we have, there are a lot of Eric Swawall's out there. And you can sit here and say, well, it's the system that creates it. I think there's some

truth to that. These sitting senators and sitting members of House have these enormous stabs that are just voted to

keeping them happy, and it just can create a bubble or a filter or for the truly weak character. You know, it, you know, makes you think more of yourself. You think you're above it all, or you think you can get away with anything, or you think you're just you think your personality is just that magnetic. Why else would all

these people not be so devoted to you? So you do, you know, if you've had you know, it's one of those things, if you if you have a little bit of of the narcissistic gene in you, the way getting elected to Congress in some ways can can amplify it, if that's possible. And when you look at some of of his mo that the various allegations are out there, it right, it's it's sadly familiar, right. He seems to be looking for those that look up to him, right,

that's who he prayed upon, you know. And you could say whether it was consensual, and I'm sure in his mind it was consensual, but he you know, he's trying really hard to say I'm not Bill Cosby, I'm Bill Clinton. Well, even that I don't think people accept anymore because there was still a power dynamic issue. So you did it, You're not You're not sneaking in date rape drugs still doesn't mean you're qualified to be the next governor of California as far as the American public or the California

public is concerned. So, you know, in some ways, it's a very familiar story. So now let's talk about the fallout. I think there's going to be the first thing we're going to see is we're going to see Congress. Right, You've got two other members of Congress that have been who's behavior with women have been an issue, and there's

been some threats to expel them from Congress. Tony Gonzalez, Republican from Texas, who has since dropped out. He pulled out of that runoff, but he hasn't resigned from Congress, Corey Mills, Republican from Florida. Then you have another member of Congress who's accused of essentially stealing money from FEMA, and there may be a vote to expel her. So we may have like four expulsion votes. You need two

thirds of a vote to do this. And I'll just say I think this is you know, are there's going to be political votes of convenience, right, Both parties just want to sweep their bad apples under the rug, so you may see a vote. Is it one vote?

She hit the public trial with the Ethics Committee. So it is it is certainly politically convenient for both parties and for a Jeffreys and a Johnson to almost agree to this and just sort of saying, let the will of the House happen, whatever happens happens, and they clean it up. I will just say this the law of

unattended consequences. One. If the votes fail, and they might, there might be other members of Congress who think there but for the grace of God go I and who may think do and may think they're going to practice their own version of the Golden Rule, and they're going to do not unto others, what they hope will be done unto them. And if they fear that they've got something in their past that could come out, what precedent do they want to send, so you could have some

of that, You could have some of it. In the other way, where the news of Swawell and Gonzales and Mills trigger there's even more accusations and more staffers decide

if we're going to hold these four accountable, then we need to hold these other folks account So it's possible. It's an important moment for Congress to sort of draw a line and to try to raise the bar because, let's be honest, the quality of member of Congress has been going downhill for some time. They're more and more of them are not role models. Now you could say, hey, they just are you know, a reflection of us. Man, They're a perverted reflection of us, because these congressional districts

aren't fairly reflective of the country. So it's a perverted version. It's a fun house mirror version of us. And then there's always been a small part of me that we as American citizens, you know, we've always punched, we've always

punched down in Congress. We want to believe that we're all better than them, and this is only going to be more proof of that. But I am you know, look, I think this is going to be it's probably going to be swift justice. But it's a version of sweeping all this under the rug all at the same time, rather than maybe having a better come to you know what moment where you say, you know, you know, how do we demand a better quality of behavior, How do we draw some better lines, and how do we root

this stuff out sooner? And how do we But it's sometimes it's just the nature of the beast. And we know we've lived with politicians like this for this long and part of it is are we going to hold Is Congress going to hold individual members of Congress to a higher bar than they hold the President of the United States?

accusations against Donald Trump for versions of this, whether it's essentially using government money, using power to enrich himself. That's basically been the second term. Never mind the various accusations for women, including a civil court that said he was credibly accused of rape, of which he still not paid the fine that a civil court adjudicated against him. So that's also a part of this. That's just like, like

I said, just hovers over all of this. The real question is does this have a I think this ends up, you know, sort of, if it's possible to lower the

approval rating of Congress generically overall, it will. And this is a pox on everybody who's running as an incumbent, which is why they're going to want to try to wash their hands because there's also an Epstein angle to this, right, they've done so little on the Epstein front, they better make sure they're willing to hold accountable any one of their members at a minimum, because of their failure to do so when it came to all things Epstein. So

I think we know what's going to happen here to these four members. I do think these votes are going to happen. My guess is they all do get expelled because of the desperation of the members that are currently running to look a little less dirty. But I think that, you know, the cynic in me says, hey, this is this is this is small stuff, and maybe you could say, hey, a small improvement here of trying to raise the bar

anywhere is better than not trying at all. I grant you that, But there are a bunch of elephants in the room on these stories that we're not touching, that are certainly having a little bit of it back there.

As for the ubernatorial follow in the obviously the primary is coming up. Democrats had been reluctantly rallying around Swallwell. And this is all a reflection by the way that I do think most California Democrats that are in some power have little interest in seeing Tom Stier as their standard bearer. And it has been in anybody but Styre sort of mindset, right. And so this is why you had a whole bunch of folks hoping that Kamala Harris would jump in, Alex Padia would jump in, And I

understand why both of them didn't. If you're not interested in the job, don't run. And I think Kamala Harris wants one more bite at the apple of president. That's been made clear and clear. Alex Padia, he might have been able to win the governorship, but he'd be giving up a Senate seat for life. Essentially, there's no term limits on running for the Senate, there is termal limits on running for governor, and maybe he wants to spend

the next twenty years in the Senate. Ditto Adam Scheff. And then there's another uncomfortable aspect of I'm just I've been constantly trying to figure out why is this field, excuse me, why is this California gubernatorial field so weak? I think there's a whole bunch of people that don't want the job, that don't think the job is worth having. In the first time after news now I've explained to

you why I think some major Democrats were against. I think another is that there's been sixteen straight years of democratic governorship of rule of the governorship. There is going to inevitably be fatigue on Democrats. So the likelihood that the next governor was at best going to get one term might not survive a recall, I think was quite high and quite likely. So that may explain why some

people didn't want to do it. Then think about the reality, right the next governor is going to be dealing with a very active presidential campaign of a former California governor, Gavin Newsom, and he'll be high profile, and he'll be running on what he believes as his record that will be questioned. It will be a constant sort of. It will make the the pr side of running the state a little bit harder. If you want to hit Gavin

for not having an air apparent, I think it's a fair hit. I'm now I know why he didn't. He didn't like it when he sort of got pushed aside. You know, I think he his feeling was let let a thousand flowers bloom because he wants He didn't like the way he was treated. He was sort of forced await his tournament. Then he had a run for Lieutenant governor, and then and then the you know, the sea's parted for him essentially, but he didn't he didn't really have

an air parent. But now they've got a real problem Becauesswallwell, obviously that candidacy is dead, whether he sees the light and drops out or not. As another story, everybody that was anybody who has pulled their endorsement there if Tom Steyer.

I just look at all the money Toms Tire has spent to promote Tom Steyer, especially in the state of California, and when you look on the ROI of the amount of money he spent and the translation that money and that how much money that has translated to support for him, It is one of the worst investments you could ever have. I mean the amount of money he spent. He should he's already be and they should be in first place, up by ten over anybody. Unless the dogs don't like

the dog food. One of the old axioms. Sometimes the dogs don't like the dog food. It doesn't matter what the brand says. It doesn't matter how much money you spent on advertising. The dogs won't eat your dog food if it ain't alpo or it ain't whatever, right, And you got to ask yourself. Stire's done all these he's just whether. I don't think he comes across very likable. I think he's sort of the angry billionaire. Look without

any charm. Right, Trump has the angry billionaire. You know, he's the angry, fake billionaire who used the presidency to

become a billionaire. But he's got a little charm. And in politics you need a little charm. Doesn't matter who you are, gotta have a little charm. And Stier's missing the charm thing now maybe you can just lean into being the a hole billionaire I would if I were him. Don't try to be something you're not. Just try that. Maybe it works, maybe he gets there, But the point

is he's pretty much alienated. He is not seen as somebody that's easy to work with, which is why they doesn't have any major supporters that aren't supporting him without being paid by him. Now, he's not the first billionaire candidate to pay people to support him, pay influencers things like that. That's sort of now. There's a lot of influencers that are getting paid by outside actors that don't

say who they are. I'm not one of them. In case you're wondering, I don't think anybody knows which side could buy me off very well. But the point is, as I just I just look at you know, the facts are the facts. Tyra spent all this money and it's never translated to anything. So then the question is, what does you know If you're Gavin news, some Kamala Harris, Adam Schiff, Alex Padilla, foremost prominent Democrats in the state, do you all endorse the same person? Does that help

or hurt them? I think in this unique race, it would help them because, you know, because the last two Democrats that most of the party wants to see, and that's in that slot, or Tom Styron, Katie Porter. So if they want somebody else, maybe it's Matt Mayn. You know, he's gotten little. He had plenty of resources to get into this thing. He's not caught fire. Maybe he's not well known enough. Maybe he got in too late. Maybe you're just never going to be able to make the

mayor of San Jose a statewide figure. Okay, I don't know. There was one candidate that I do think would have would have been their best candidate, and it's the mayor of San Francisco, Daniel Lurie. Now he is just there. It's a little early, and it could be that some of these folks like Caruso, Lurie, maybe even Padilla, maybe Harris, maybe they all said, you know what, I'm going to run for governor in twenty thirty. I am not want to try to follow in this sixteenth Street. You know,

let me follow somebody that it's in debacle. I don't want to be governor. Well, Gavin's running for president, right, there's a whole I understand that line of things, but they have to avoid a debacle. They've got to find a viable candidate. And look, maybe maybe they just say, fine, let's die or have it. At least he'll spend money on behalf of the ticket. I don't think money is

the problem though for the California Democrats. So it'll be curious to see. I think those four if they choose to sort of be their own version of a of a of of king and queen makers here but Shift Padilla, Harrison Newsom, if they care about the state party and try to strengthen, and if they want the eventual governor that gets elected to have some credibility when they get elected, they probably ought to try to rally behind somebody in

this primary. I think it could be Javier Bisera. I think if it wasn't for the Biden baggage, maybe Beisera would be the guy. It's a state ag you know, he's got the correct resume, but the Biden baggage is

not unheavy. I think everybody else looks like they're retreats via Ricosa, Katie Porter, all these people that feel like they've been trying to you know, sort of the also rants. Like I said, I go back. This feels a lot like nineteen ninety eight, two thousand and two California politics, where none of the big names would run. No Diane Feinstein,

she still wouldn't run for governor. That was still the sort of the hope that some Democrats had, no barber boxer running or anything like that, and the lesser known sort of nebbish at the time, not everybody was thrilled with it. Gray Davis sort of sneaks through because they didn't want the They didn't want a rich guy owning the party from on the outside. Now, Checki and for whatever reason, Jane Harmon didn't take off, you know, I mean, I think Harmon and Checky beat each other up and

it cleared the path for Davis a little bit. But I do think this. I think the most likely new thing that has happened here is no matter that we are likely to have two unpopular figures running for governor by November. Steve Hilton and whoever the Democrat is. My guess is they'll both be underwater, just like Great Davis, Bill Simon twenty two, and whoever becomes governor is just swimming uphill. And it's so easy to put a recall initiative on there, and if things are south, you know,

it's one of those things that will be well. It will only sort of reinforce the likely weakness of whoever wins. But the other unintended consequence to this debacle could be that the Democrats and the legislature decide to get rid of the all party primary and try to put a put a referendum back on the ballot to get rid of it. Personally, I hope not. I think all party

primaries long term are healthier for the system. But the two parties have viewed all party primaries always through the lens of is it good for them or bad for them? And if they think it's bad for them, then they're going to fight to get rid of them. And in this case, both parties think this all open primary is

actually bad for them. They've never liked it, and not having this type of control over their nominee and over the process when you have a tobacco like this, I fear is going to make a lot of California Democrats decide they don't want this all party primary anymore. So I hope that's not the unintended consequence one of them. But I fear it could be. All Right, a few

other quick hitters of a whole bunch of stuff. These are just literally things that I've pondering in the back of my head, and I thought I would share them with you. News that Roger Stone is who saved Tulsa Gas does not. Let's just say, if you're still deep in the Russia ties to Trump world story, well, the two of the top four or five people that have had some ties to that world, two of them are

Telsa Gabard and Roger Stone. I'm not saying anything, but it's interesting to me that it took Roger Stone to tell Donald Trump not to fire Telsa Gaard. Roger Stone, who was mister WikiLeaks, who seemed to know everything that was going on there, you know it. Roger anyway, put it this way, It's not the best look for this administration that somebody with all of Roger Stone's interest in questionable and intriguing ties to overseas oligarchs is the one

telling Trump not to get rid of Tulsa Gabbard. All Right, the Wall Street Journal pardon story, the sweeping pardons anybody to inter fee from the Oval office. Look, we knew this was likely that he would be thinking about this, and I'm sorry. This is why those Joe Biden pardons, preemptive pardons, were such a huge mistake, because it only gives him cover to do exactly this is what Trump going to do, worse than what Biden did. Probably and I know some of you are going to what are

you both siding this? Because there is no reward for being less bad. I only robbed half of your house. I didn't rob all of your house. You're still a bad You're still a robber. Be better. This is why this was a mistake. Here's the good news. I hope this accelerates interest in the constitutional amendment to create a congressional nullification on pardons if we've ever needed that in place asap. This story better be the trigger for that. And then finally there were I have to tell you.

I want you know the tech world has a real problem because the most prominent people in the tech world

they don't actor behave like the rest of us. And when you read this uh Altman Biergra profile in New Yorker, and when you read the Lauren Bezos said chez inn Say Lauren Sanchez Bezos interview in the New York Times, Man, if you didn't need more evidence that the pitchforks are coming, and that when the look, it's your own behavior and your own sort of borderline sort of compartmentalization of how ridiculous you people look, you super wealthy people look, you

power hung folks look, and then you're going to be angry when government's coming at you. Well, government's made up of the people. So when the pitchforks come and you don't like the level of regulation that's coming, just remember only have yourselves to blame, all right? With that, I've gone on a while and then some since it was two pretty big stories this weekend, but hey, there was a lot going on. All of that plus an incredible Masters tournament, right, but let me steak it a break.

When we come back, let's talk Georgia Republican politics with Martha Solmer. This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you by Wild Grain. Wild Grain is the first bake from frozen subscription box for sour dough breads, artisanal pastries, and fresh pastas, plus all the items conveniently baked in

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my guest today is somebody who's coming on. We're going to talk a lot about a topic that I'm very fascinated with. There's a couple of states that within the debate in where's the Republican Party headed? Particularly where's the Republican Party headed post Donald Trump? There are two state

Republican parties that I'm most fascinated to watch. One is out west in Utah, and for a variety of reasons, and Utah has been a fascinating state to watch as sort of the conservative movement has been realigning in which way we've seen it's not just Mitt Romney, but we've seen you know, you've got one senator in John Curtis in one direction of the party, Mike Lee going in another direction. But the other state that is seen in where the where I think you can't say that the

Republican Party is just totally trumpified as Georgia. Well, my guess there's somebody who works both in Georgia Republican politics, talks Republican politics, knows the media landscape. Well. Her name's Martha Zalor those of you down in Georgia probably very familiar with her, whether it's listening to her podcast or listening to her or her talk show in and around the Gainesville, Georgia area. And I'm looking forward to talking

a little Georgia politics. As I was telling my listeners last week, Martha, I thought it was interesting that the first state to act on a gas tax holiday was Georgia and Governor Brian Kemp, and I thought, well, that'll be an interesting talking point a hypothetical campaign and say the state of New Hampshire. And so anyway, let's just say it's just a little taste of where I hope our conversation goes. Martha, Welcome to the podcast.

it's pretty clear to me that both parties are really coalitions, right, there's sort of collections of There is a lot more diversity underneath the umbrellas, underneath that red umbrella and that blue umbrella. And I think sometimes both parties get defined by just one individual or one part of the party. And I think what's interesting is george has been sort of the one place where conservatives have not been punished for swimming in a different direction every now and then.

And I guess let me start there. What what do you what do you make of the fact that the Georgia Republican Party and whether it's Marjorie Taylor Green, who's I think feels let down by the MAGA movement or at least let down by Donald Trump, or it's a

Brad Raffinsburger, right, who's in a totally another part of the party. I know what it looks like from the outside, What does it look like from your seat?

and taking every question. I remember, right after the twenty twenty election, but Miller and I, Butch Miller was a state senator, we had to go face the Republican Party for the first time in March of twenty one before the world shut down, I mean, while we were still in that kind of weird place after COVID. And one thing we did is we paid the bar tab because it was out of winery, because we didn't want people

to be mad. Because Butch and I laid out what happened with the Georgia election, what the good things were and what the bad things were. And it wasn't about corruption, okay, it was about something we had been saying since two thousand and six that we had a pretty big loophole in our rules around absentee ballots. Using a loophole is not breaking the law. Using a loophole is not corruption. It's just there was a pretty big loophole in how absentee ballots could be done. And as Karen Handel, who

was the Secretary of State when this law was passed, said, the Democrats figured out how to drive a mack truck through it, and they used the rule to their advantage, and that's what ultimately happened with the election. There's a lot of Republicans today to still disagree with me about that.

As early as today on my show when I was talking to all the candidates for secretary of State, there is one candidate that is looking forward and all the rest of the secretary of state candidates on the Republican side are looking backward. And I just don't think that's the answer for anything. Number one. But yeah, George has been very interesting, and there are these different buckets, and I just wouldn't allow myself to be categorized. I mean,

I supported President Trump. I voted for him three times. I gave money in twenty twenty to his campaign. I was one of those people that got caught up in that wind red thing where it was supposed to be a one time donation and they tried to take it, you know, every month. And so I have been a supportive person. Don't like everything that he does. I think

he's the reason why we have two Democrat senators. He came to Georgia for that runoff and he told people you can vote, which your vote might not count, and four hundred thousand Republicans stay home, and you know, and it was heaviest in the two cities he went to. So I've had my own issues with President Trump related to that. I don't get invited to any of the parties, I don't get to do any of that stuff. But I have met him several times. And everybody in Georgia

is not a Trump Republican, but they are. There are more Republicans than Democrats, and if we get out to vote, we will still win. But we've had a tough run the last six statewide elections. Now a lot of more special elections to be fair, but you can't deny we've had six races that have gone Democrat in the last three years, and you know, we can't continue to run the state the way we want to as Republicans if we continue to lose races.

But he was, you know, it was an embarrassing loss. It was seventy's he doing.

this is a pro business guy, this is a small government guy. And I just look at it. I don't want to put words in your mouth that he kind of lost his political identity in getting caught up in Trump world. And this is he's not alone. I watch a lot of Republicans who had a set of a set of things that they had been advocating for and been principled about for decades. They get caught up in the Trump sort of whatever you want to call it, right, the whirlpool, whatever it is, and you just the vortex,

and they sort of lose their own identity. Governor Kemp never did, Senator did? How did Senator Purdue get caught up in this so much?

I would call our small D democratic infrastructure that need fixing, that have been exposed. You know, you pointed out one in Georgia politics there about you know, how should absentee battling work? Is this a loophole? You know? I think the point is is that he's an MRI, and if you're if you care about the country, then use it for good. And that's been my choice. But it's been an MRI for a lot of people.

that area. Well, he's currently the ambassador to China, so he you know, he is serving there and he has been extremely loyal.

help him as much in his runoff. He did not help at all on the runoff.

about a million and a half Republican votes. So in

those four counties there's about it's about two to one Democrat to Republican, So there's about a million and a half for Publican votes.

He was the superintendent of Dacab County schools. And if he you're going to laugh at this, but it's true. If he can peel off a hunt or two hundred thousand squishy Republican women who were the people I have to deal with in my work all the time, because they voted for Clinton in ninety six, they voted for for I've forgotten Gore, in two thousand they voted for Bush, and four they voted for Obama, and eight they voted for Trump in sixteen, not in twenty but then in

twenty four. If you can peel off one hundred or two hundred thousand on either side, if a Republican can do it or a Democrat can do it, there's the one who wins.

of the Georgia Life Alliance. I helped start the Georgia Life Alliance, which is a more I don't want to use the term moderate, but it was a more reasonable right to life group which understood that we live in a world where this happens and we want to make it and we were more like Clinton, I don't want to say that, but more legal and rare as well.

the problem with that is it has a seven percent complication rate. It has a seven percent complication rate, which today the FDA would never approve something like that, not because of Trump, but because most anything over four percent complication rate. And what I'm trying to get accomplished, not just in Georgia but across the country is that you need to see a doctor. You shouldn't just take it,

not do it. In twenty twenty four, there were a couple of women who died that were used in ads, you know, because they said it was because of the Heartbeat Bill. It wasn't that, it was that they didn't go to a doctor. And all you need to know about that that's the safer way to do things, is that planned parenthood requires you to come back the next day to be sure everything's okay. And so for me, it's a health a women's health issue. And I tell you,

I've had such a hard time getting Democrat women. They'll agree with me in the meetings, but then when we have to go out and talk about legislation because I help with things like that, can't get them to come along. But I feel encouraged because after my heart attack, which was the reason why we didn't get together the last time I got was honored by a group of women at the Georgia Legislature last week, mainly for surviving but also for using my platform to talk about women's heart health.

And it was Democratic women that did that initiative. So that makes me feel good. Because I'm a conservative, I'm not apologetic about it. I think our ideas are better. But I've always worked with everybody.

know for sure after Trump leaves. Right, it could be that this is a Trump hangover type of thing, but my instinct has been that it's that I'm surprised at

ours off strength. Let me put it that way so far, and we'll find out when there's a's a nominee. But in this larger question, right, America is divided? If Alexis Detokfeld came back to life right and was trying to study America again and write about democracy in America, what would you tell him that we're divided about? What is this big issue? In the nineteenth century, we knew what we were divided about. There was a specific thing this country was divided about. It is hard for me to

say there's this one thing we're divided about. But it's almost more of a feeling. Right, we know it, and someone will say, well, it's culture, okay, but what is what would you how would you describe the divide in America today and what animates well?

of them are disaffected Democrats. I think I think the independent. I can tell you what I feel as an independent, which is I don't feel comfortable. Either party doesn't really represent everything I believe in, but I'm not ready to throw them both out either.

don't like the way they talk about them, and we disagree with how the Democratic Party looks at family and I think I think the big issue is the difference between I'm going to sound so eighties when I say family values, but it's about traditional family values versus this far left progressive like you see at these protests. I mean, I saw a woman on one of the protests and no King's processes. I've been protested for everything since the nineteen sixties, and I'm thinking to myself, you know, I

know these women. I used to and I'm going to get in trouble for this. I used to say, the meanest people on the face of the earth are old white Democrat women that I never got yelled at by Republican women like I have by Democrat women.

passed them by. And I know, in my own family, my youngest daughter, you know, and I agree with her about this, is that they've waited and hopefully they will have children. And she's very liberal, you know. I mean, I raised kids to think for themselves, and I think that what happens is is that that we have been telling people things they knew were not true about the world, and media was a part of it, and this idea that happened, and now a lot of people are second guessing.

But I will say that she's right that she doesn't have it as easy as I had it. It is harder for her to buy a house. These affordab ability issues are real things, and neither party is offering any solutions for it. They're just fighting. I mean, this DHS thing is the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. I wrote a column this week on my substack about we need to go back to pre gram Redman because before

that you didn't have shutdowns. The understanding was you're going to be grown ups because money is coming into the federal government every day check you can continue to pay people.

of mine who's been in a government contractor basically he's in this one of those public private areas in the world of nukes, Okay, and it's about all he can tell me. But the point is is that it's this public private and he goes the amount of times they've literally had to stop in the middle of a research product because of a continuing resolution, Like if people understood, he gets he harps on this with me all the time.

He goes, I wish you guys could meaning us in the media could do a better job of explaining how even continuing resolutus quote keeping the lights on, actually prevent us from doing certain research spending. Sometimes it takes a little extra money to figure out something or to be able to do something extra. We are sometimes just literally waiting in place while we fill out another form or wait for something that we know we're going to get

in the next budget. But in the meantime, we can't use spend that money until they officially pass it and he goes. We're literally paying people to do nothing, and it is just ridiculous the budgeting process in America that has put us in this and it incentivizes both parties to weaponize the budget process.

vaccines on chickens and they do other things. Well, if you're dealing with animals, you can't have two months at a time continuing resolutions because the animals have to be you know what I mean, these things, so they can't start stuff because they're afraid they can't finish it, and it's just very inefficient. But you asked me something about Asoff, and I just wanted to know if you wanted to talk a little bit about him.

to pick up on something you said you were talking about. We were talking about what the divide is and you thought it was cultural and unfamily and that, and you did something and I totally respect it. But at the same time, I feel like it's part of I think that each party is viewed as a caricature by folks that are in the other party, And like, I sit here and I'm like, and sometimes I look at both parties as caricatures, and I try really hard not to

that we're all three dimensional figures. And I kind of think that's part of the problem. Meaning you asked, why do you feel like some won't cross the aisle to help on certain things that you're working on, And I think the problem is there's this, and the two parties

do this a lot. Media can do it too, and categorizing creates this guilt by association that the minute you work with the other side. Oh yeah, right, you immediately are seen as a traitor or a turncoat.

don't agree with, and all these other things. And yet we then hold the political parties and members of it to a standard that does create this caricature element to it that I think almost it's what it does, is what I think it does, is it turns off the volume, meaning people will just stop listening and tell me what.

and you didn't bring your family up and they did it. And granted I used to joke about with Senator Nune we were great friends. I said, your kids didn't broke in Georgia, they grew up in Washington, DC. And he would laugh about it. But what happened with that is you made relationships with all different kinds of people. And now we don't do that because they come in on Tuesday or maybe Monday night and they go back whenever.

And I think they should work twenty four to seven if they're not going to fund the government, and they shouldn't be paid for it. But I just think that it didn't make those relationships that you normally have, you know.

in a political app and we did. They created the schedule. They work three days a week. Right. They fly in now Tuesday more. It used to be they came in a Monday. Now they've pushed it. Especially if you're on the East coast. You grab that six am flight. They get there for the Tuesday hearing that they have to do and the caucus lunch whatever it is, and then the smell of jet fumes by two. I mean, you know, they basically work Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Yeah, that's it.

within that party, and you can pick either one of them. I mean, there's no you know, to me, I made a choice. This is the choice I make, and this is how I want to contribute.

believe this? What you know that's because ultimately, if you choose to watch to me, if you choose to watch a Sunday show, or if you choose to listen to a political talk show, you're not interested in the what you already know, the what. Right, You're you're trying to get a why, because you're it's more than just the information. You're looking to understand, well, how did we get to this position. You're trying to get more information, more context.

You're not there just for the what. So you're already a pretty well informed person, so you're then if they're coming to you, your job or my job is to add more context to the situation.

They got we got a contested Democrat primary in our district, okay, which they have no chance, they have no chance, but they couldn't get a few more Democrats out for the state wide races, you know, if there's a good Democrat in the race.

Oh yeah, and you know, I can't tell you how many members of Congress I know over the years who told me that they first learned how to run from office by listening to Newt gingridg piscept tapes. Yeah, from the old Gopak era. But the point was, I remember he was a big advaty of this basically fill the tree.

If you have a candate in every race locally, up and down the ballot, well, all of a sudden, you have that many more people going out to ask for Republicans, having somebody to go vote for a Republican or in this case, and I've always you know, there's a pretty good correlation if you study this via data, where the party that has the fewest empty ballot slots is usually the party that's going to win that cycle.

If you come on my show, you can help them too. And he goes, wow, you're really good. And you know, but I did have to apologize for calling him a thirty three year old intern, because I did do that.

was to mention a Republican too. Tom was a really good looking guy and still is, of course, and same kind of thing happened. He came in, he had this charisma and after he left, all the girls were like, who is that? Who was that? And you know, John is I think John has a good chance my thing. And I said this to him. I said, look, I want you to lose. I'm a Republican. I said that

you've forgotten who you are. Your your your fundraising letters sound like you're a far left progressive, but yet your press release is say all these things you're doing on a bipartisan basis. You know, I said, I'll give you a piece of advice that I usually charge people for,

and it's that don't forget that nobody's going to remember the name of your consultant. You know, they only know your name, and so so if you if you're doing this kind of crazy fundraising emails and I don't know how many people actually see those, but I noticed that it didn't sound the same. He's not a far left progressive, Okay, He's probably kind of like Barack Obama in that I

think Obama was much more progressive than he governed. He kind of governed center left, even though I think if he were if he didn't have to negotiate with Congress, he probably would have been a lot more far left. And the fact that he allowed the the economy it grew in about one percent a year. It wasn't gangbusters, but it wasn't what it was when he came in. So he was a to win some people over because of that. But I think if he was left to

his own devices, he's very progressive. But it'll be interesting to see how John does. I kept trying to get We have a Palestinian woman who was running for governor that is from Decab County, and I was joking. I said, I was trying to get her to switch over to the Senate race so we could see how far left John would go. But she didn't do that. She got out of the race.

former football coach than current member of Congress. So I don't care what party I'm int, but particularly in this political environment we're living in where we don't really have a lot of positive views of how Congress has worked and all of that. But that's not what the polling has been showing. Derek Dooley is having a lot of trouble getting traction. Arguably all of the candidates are having

some trouble getting traction, but not like Dooley. What you know, is there any way of doing this without Donald Trump?

it was in a you know, and especially in the area where most of the Republican voters are in and around.

to lose of the primary. Buddy Carter's working very hard and I think he's working smart, but it's hard to win from that first district, just ask Jack Kingston. But I do think that with the with Rick Jackson getting in the race on the governor's side, that is another outsider that could help Derek Dooley. But I still think if the election were real today and be Mike Collins.

was no giant killer in the race. And I had heard whispers of concerns about Jones and a general fear that he couldn't win a general So there had been some there'd been some whispers, but the way they acted is if they just couldn't believe this happened.

and I'd worked with him on foster care stuff. I mean, he's been very involved in politics. He's given money to everyone, and that's running gotten him a little bit in a little bit of trouble. But it was totally unknown, and it completely upended the entire race. For three or four weeks. Jones's people were completely on their back feet for three or four weeks. They're kind of gaining it back and a little bit now.

great and that are running the businesses now for him, and he you know he he's made some missteps because he doesn't know. You know, he's not a politician. He's a guy that's running business. But Bert seems to be getting his feet under him again. But I'm sure he can't wait for sine die on Thursday, which is the last day of the legislative session, because then he can raise money and get out on the main trail.

governor this year in other states across the board. And then the other problem, I mean the problem is what used to make the Senate fun and actually, frankly a great place for a former governor to go, is that that it was a place to be somewhat independent. I mean, you were expected to sit on one side of the aisle or the other, but nobody expected to you know, they'd look at Ted Kennedy and John McCain and think, okay, I can mess around, It's okay to work with the

other side. And it was a very accepted practice in the Senate in some ways. It was a feature, not a bug, of the Senate. And I think the Senate in particular, in our new polarize and I say new polarized climate obviously, where the politics that you and I grew up with in the seventies and eighties is not today's politics. Right. The divides may look familiar, but it's different. And you keep bringing up Sam Nun. Sam Nunn was my father's dream candidate for president. He was recovering, you know.

He was a Reagan Democrat who never went back to the Democratic Party, and he loved Sam Nun. Sam Nunn was always the last, the one Democrat alive that he

wanted to vote for next before he passed away. So you cannot do that anymore in the Senate because that in some ways, maybe it's our partisan media, right, we have a very there's robust liberal media, there's robust conservative media, there's robust mega media, there's robust influencer media, whatever you want to call it these days, right, and it's all different. And if Governor Camp asked me could he get anything done in the Senate, I tell him you can't unless

you become a leader. And you know, especially it's really miserable being in the Senate when your party's in the White House, because you cannot ever criticize your party, even if you really want to you become a heretic, as ask Joe Manchin or ask Lisa Mrkowski.

change the constitution and make the Senate elected instead of appoint.

the Senate they're not beholding to their states anymore. They care more about their donors and their caucus than they do about their states. They do not put their states first, whether it's Rafayel Warnock and John oss Off or it's you know, what's a state with two Republicans it doesn't matter, or they're not as they're not as behold and they care more about the DSCC and their caucus and their donors.

And that's when that kind of money raising started. You know, they didn't need money before then.

don't I I don't know. I look at state less. I'll be honest, I believe the least corrupt legislature in America's Congress, and that the lower you go, the more corruptible it is. And there's a variety of reasons for that one.

I'm I mean, I think we spent a half a billion dollars last time in that cycle.

and I was very frank with the governor. I said, I can't raise twenty million dollars. I'm not that good at it, you know. And I thought Kelly Leffler was great, but she got forced because Doug Collins got into the race. She got forced to go right instead of being that suburban woman she was.

get him out to vote. And so I think, you know, that's one thing I loved. She did not take her ball and go home, and she continued being an operative in Georgia politics.

So if he was thinking about president it makes a lot of sense for me at least, then don't run for the Senate, because that'd be you know, to leave after two years. You know, immediately you're running, and you'd immediately be running.

big commitment. You know, it's a big commitment to do that. And it's easier for women to not have their husbands everywhere than it is for men to not have their wives everywhere. You know, my husband was you know, he would put signs up, but he wasn't a guy that was going to come to an event with me and be the little man. But it's more acceptable for a you know, a husband of a female candidate not to show up everywhere.

start later because they think they need to be ready. Men will just run for every anything. But the funt the hardest thing is you've got to let You've got to put aside the time to get your hair done okay, because there are no gray haired women in politics or television or very few. And who's going to carry your purse? Because it never looks good to walk out of a room with your purse, So you got to do those things.

people that leave office before their term is up. To your point that you were talking about earlier, it's a two year office that you asked for, you begged for,

you raised money for. And even if she decided she wasn't going to run, she just could not run and then finished out her term instead of doing what she's doing to her people right now, is which a primary and run a general, I mean a jungle primary and a runoff, and then they're going to have a general primary and a runoff and then they're going to have

another election. And so I just hate that, okay. And I think the only time I have ever agreed with AOC is when she said Donald Trump's been giving you a hard time for a week. He's been doing it to me for five years, and you're leaving, so I you know, I think AOC is the most overblown person

that I've ever seen in politics. I think she does not. I think she's very attractive, and even men on my side think she looks great. But I think she doesn't understand what the real world is like. But she was right about that. I mean, you get picked on by the president for a week and you quit your job.

the same time. And there's just it's harder for women and everything, okay, even though we've come a long way and we've done great, but you know what, I don't focus on that. I have a great husband and a fantastic family, and especially being eight weeks out from a heart attack, I'm thinking, you know, there's a lot more important things in life, so you just got to make sure you got all your priorities straight.

just one of the great gentlemen of the US. Senate back. You know when people say the good old days, he's one of the people I would vision envision in my head.

our rhetoric is? And you know, I mean, I'm sure you run into this, right, Why do why do suburban sort of squishy Republicans, why are they willing to cross the aisle against Trump? It's usually for character in style, not necessarily for substance, It's true.

now in the twenty twenties. We've got the same sort of side. We had some political political assassination last year,

we had other things that were going on, and you've got people now not moving from the cities to the suburbs, they're moving whole states. And so I think we're kind of I'm an optimistic person, so I think things will get better.

with me because you're right. I mean, he chose. I think he saw it as, Hey, I can't be too radical, I can't be to this because I am breaking a barrier. And I think it's true of anybody that's broken a barrier.

I'm sure you you know you don't want to be you don't want to leave the place where nobody that looks like you doesn't have a shot again.

be careful or we got to do this. We got And Hawaii is such a melt you know, we talk about being a melting pot. Hawaii is a melting there is nobody's at fifty percent right. You've got a Japanese population, a Native Hawaiian population, a North you know, sort of expat if you want to call it that, people that grew up on the continental United States over there, and it's just a it's a it really is a full fledged melting pot. So yeah, I think all of that

is true with him. Well, just like with with Trump, you know, he had a different sort of you know, I think he also had a lonely job. But because here's something that's always bugged me, and it's a bug's not the wrong word, but it's an observation you meant about Obama. And I'm curious if you notice it was about Trump. You know what, you know what you never hear about Donald Trump. Childhood friend came to visit him today. Guy he went to college with came to visit at

mar A Lago today. Person he grew up with, he went golfing with today. And I don't say that as any judgment. It's just interesting. And it's like he also went to boarding school. He also sort of I think he was raised weirdly isolated from other kids.

if you didn't have that connection to the Manhattan real estate business. And it's so interesting. He's an interesting guy, he really is. I mean, I don't like all the things that I don't like a lot of the things that he says. I don't like that way he presents himself, the whole thing about Rob Reiner and then about Mueller, when you know he can act right. When he was asked about RB. Ruth Bader Ginsburg, he was gracious and he was kind and he didn't.

tributes have happened, there was like this. He believed that there was like some level of respect, like this was not the week to tell you, you know. But when it was over, he called an all staff meeting. Let me, let's sit down and let me tell you about him. And he had some things to say, but there was this pay some respect to the dead.

can do it. I just wish he would do it, you know, I kind of wish X would or truth social whatever you use, go back to one hundred and forty characters, because it would you know, it's that last line that's the problem. They get you in trouble.

much is also a curiosity. Why, right, he's willing to do so many other things transactionally, Why won't you do that? Because the benefits you would get if you would do that could be pretty big politically, but he chooses not to.

It is funny though, because my daughter will I'll sometimes get calls from my daughter and it's always a left linging poll, and so I do answer that one.

I mean, Miami, it only played Old Miss like three times. It is strange how in the hotbed of the South that Miami and some of these SEC schools have rarely played.

will concede college station. You know these adopted SEC towns that I still can't quite believe their SEC town I will give you that you guys have better stadiums, but I just question whether the football is actually that much better. That's all right, well it you.

was not the easiest week to decide what was worth your time doing a deep dive on And I say you were time because that's how I try to look at these things. What is something that I think, what are a what's what's the topic that people, you know, they know they know something, but they don't really know as much about it as they probably should. And that's kind of how I try to choose it right in those terms, which I won't go with the most obvious. And this week, I mean, I'll be honest, there was

just a ton of anniversaries that hit this week. In history, I mean, April nineteenth, seventeen seventy five, the battles of Lexting and Concord, Right, that's that, you know, when protests becomes a revolution April fourteenth, eighteen sixty five, the assassination of Abraham Lincoln April nineteenth, nineteen ninety five, the Oklahoma City bombing and domestic terrorism. And in culture April fifteenth, nineteen forty seven, Jackie Robinson steps onto a baseball field

for the Brooklyn Dodgors. April sixty, two thousand and three, Michael Jordan steps off the court for the very last time as a Washington Wizard. Yeah, he probably forgot, that's right, he did play for the Washington Wizards. I've never forgotten it. And I have the basketball cards in pas say ten holders to prove it. Okay, but I define, but I

diverge and look. And while all of those could easily be worth its own dime, dive and we could have tentacles of the impact the long term impacts of all of them, it's a group of exiles on a beach in Cuba that we're about to define the limits of American power that I want to focus on, because there's echoes here for the current situation in Iran and of course what could be coming next in Cuba. So let

me start with that. So we're doing the Bay of Pigs in case you're wondering, and it's the lung shadow of this. Before we get to the invasion, we have to start with something a bit uncomfortable. The United States

didn't just lose Cuba, it misread it. For years, the US backed a gentleman by the name of Flujencio Batista until he became indefensible. So when Fidel Castro takes power in nineteen fifty nine, Washington doesn't immediately slam the door and working with Castro. But it wasn't warm either. Castro comes and visits the United States, but Dwight Eisenhower refuses to meet with him. He goes golfing and Richard Nixon meets with him instead the vice president, and it tells

you everything you need to know. This wasn't a clean break, but it also wasn't a real opening. By the time Washington decides that Castro is a problem, the relationship is already slipping away. Now I have my own little interesting

history here, a little bit. My grandfather I stumbled across some things he was building sugarcane help. He was an engineer on sugarcane plants that they were building in Cuba in the mid to late fifties. And one of the stories he says is he said he would be visited by Cia folks every once in a while to ask them about Castro because he was in the role part.

So he met Castro. And in order for Castro's rebels to sort of leave your business this alone, if you agreed to just put a photo up in your sort of trailer office, if you can think about those trailer offices that are parts of these you know sort of you know, his factories are being built right and things like that. And because I remember I found this eight by ten glossy of my grandfather while we were cleaning

some stuff up. Fidel Castro was like, Grandpa, what's this And he said it was basically it was basically proof that you that you paid to get left alone. But that was the point he would make. He told me that he would make to these CIA sort of whatever you want to call them, officers, people that were just trying to find out information, What could you tell us about Castro? And he'd say, Hey, it's not a good guy, so be careful. But there was a real back and forth.

How much should they be they were they were trying to see it was it worth sort of wrapping their arms around Castro? And it was a constant back and forth at that time. But let's zoom out, okay, because

none of this is happening in isolation. This is early nineteen sixty one, when the Bay of Pigs itself happens. It's a world that's still rattled by Spotnik and shaped by the fear of a missile gap that the new young president John Kennedy had run on. So Cold War tensions are super high, and just months after the Bay of Pigs August nineteen sixty one, they'd be construction of the actual Berlin Wall begins, right, So the Bay of

Pigs happens just before that sort of iron curtain becomes permanent for a period of time, Ambiguity fading sides hardening in Cuba, ninety miles from Florida, is now part of that global equation.

this isn't the CIA of today. This is the CIA event, a much different CIA than we had now. It's coming off what appears to be a winning streak. In nineteen fifty three Iranian coup, something that the time Machine tackled a few weeks ago. Guatemala nineteen fifty four was a successful CIA inspired coup. Small operations, weak resistance, quick wins, so it created a bit of a trap. Success becomes confidence for the CIA. Confidence becomes assumption, and assumption becomes strategy.

They think they've seen this before. Well they hadn't and they were fighting the last war. Well, Kennedy walks in. He's the youngest elected president in American history at the time, forty three, so he's new, he's unproven, and he's under pressure. And this plan, it was already moving. The training camps were already happening, the exiles to participate were already recruited, the logistics were in place. So the machinery is running.

So here's the problem Kennedy's facing. It's easier to approve something already in motion than to stop it. This is what happened to Barack Obama and Bush at the end of his term, decided not to approve an increase in troops in Afghanistan and let it. Let it be a decision the new president makes. Well, he wasn't crazy about it, but what was he going to do stop it? It was too early in his presidency to do that. So what does he do. He ends up adding more troops

to it. So this is how a previous president can somehow tie the hands of an incoming president. And we've seen it. This isn't the This is arguably one of the earth first times that this happens that you see

it become a problem for that president. So it is easier to approve it, that's something that's already in motion, than to stop it. So he doesn't cancel it, but he does try to shape it. And this is where he makes a mistake. The plan depends on air superiority. The CIA uses B twenty six bombers pointed to painted to look like their Castro's plans. The cover story that it's a mutiny, but the strikes on April fifteen miss some key targets, Castro's air force survives and the cover collapses.

At the United Nations, Adelie Stevenson, the second defends the story that he doesn't know is false. When he learns the truth, he's humiliated and he reportedly considered resigning. That's

the cost of plausible deniability. So now Kennedy has a choice, does he escalate or pull back? Well, he cancels the second air strike, and that's the moment the operation and dies. Now, the entire plan rested on one assumption that the Cuban people were going to rise up. They don't because by then many of the opponents had already fled. The bombings ended up rallying support for Castro, and Castro moved fast. He arrests more than one hundred thousand suspected opponents, dissidence

clergy journalists, CIA networks. He clamps down art. The invasion doesn't just fail to spark an uprising, it does almost the opposite. It helps make one impossible. So April seventeenth, Brigade twenty five oh six Lands includes fourteen hundred Cuban exiles.

They believe they're going home at the Bay of Pigs. Bahia de Cochinos was actually named not for pigs, but likely for a local fish kind of called a hogfish, got shorthanded the Bay of Picks. History gave it a better name right, the Bay of Hogfish. By the way, the Bay of Pigs ended up giving me my favorite laugh line from the nineteen eighties. Being a Green Bay Packer fan, the great late Pte Axe Thelm then, I

write a sportswriter for Newsweek Previews. Back then when Tampa Bay and Green Bay meant in football twice a year because they were both in the NFC Central, he started referring to the matchup as the Bay of Pigs. But I digress, so now we're back in nineteen sixty one, within forty eight hours. By April nineteenth, the mission is over, defeated, exiles captured. And it wasn't because of cowardice. It was because the assumptions were wrong from the start. The aftershocks

we're still living with them. The consequences don't stop there. The failure ends up strengthening Castro shapes. How Nikita Krushchev sees Kennedy, that perception carries forward a year later, Soviet missiles in Cuba they test the young president again. Most dangerous moment in the Cold War may not have ever happened, the Cuban missile crisis, if not for the failure of the Bay of Pigs invasion. So that was first evidence

that the Bay of Pigs didn't stay. In nineteen sixty one, more than eleven hundred members of Brigade twenty five oh six are captured. Eventually they're released in exchange for fifty three million dollars in food, in medicine. But the defining moment came after in Miami, before tens of thousands of Cuban exiles, Kennedy receives the brigade's flag. He's not yet

they're not angry at Kennedy yet, and he makes a promise that it will be returned to a free Havana. It never has and that's when failure becomes memory. It got turned into a betrayal for Cuban exiles. This wasn't about just the United States. This is about John F. Kennedy, the belief. He encouraged it, he launched it, and then he didn't follow through. That's the way the Cuban axile community saw it, and that became a political identity and it would stain the Democrat in the eyes of Cuban

exiles for a lifetime. Now, it didn't happen right away. Cubans didn't automatically become Republican right away. It took time. In the sixties, the Cuban American voters were still split. The memories there, but it's not yet partisan. That changes. In nineteen eighty Ronald Reagan wins roughly eighty percent of the Cuban American vote. He ends up carrying Florida decisively

as state Jimmy Carter carried in seventy six. He activates the identity and from that point on, Florida becomes something different, not just a southern state, but a Cold War state shaped by exile, anti communism and memory. And that framework expands and later with the waves of immigrants from Venezuela, Nicaragua, plug into really the same political model. And if you

want to see the impact, there's probably no better campaign here than the year two thousand. Florida's decided by five hundred and thirty seven votes, a state shaped in part by the identity born in nineteen sixty one. So when you think about this week in history, you think about revolutions, assassinations, cultural breakthroughs. Right, the revolutions we just talked about, the assassinations Lincoln, the cultural breakthroughs Jackie Robinson, it was moments

where individuals redefine what's possible. With the Bay of Pigs, it's where a group of exiles revealed the limits of something else, American power and the power of political memory. Because every time a candidate steps onto a stage in Miami today, they're not just campaigning, they're still walking in the shadow of that beach, the Cochinas, the Bay of Pigs. Ass chuck. All right, it's some ass chuck time, So

let's dig in. First, one comes from David S. Colchester, Connecticut, and he writes, Dear Chuck, thanks for the podcast when news breaks Part two often these days, I appreciate your reasoned perspective. Well, thank you. My question is, when a US president can launch massive military actions that deplete our arsenal and potentially leaving our military vulnerable, will Congress realistically

vote to prevent rebuilding? If not, is the power of the purse still a viable check on the executive branch.

You know, that's a fair question, David, because I know if I were a member of Congress and I didn't approve of this war, I probably would feel uncomfortable not replenishing the stockpiles in the Pentagon. And so you're absolutely

right to sort of, you know, I would, you know, I'd like to think i'd be a rational member. And you know, it is it is. This is I think the the difficulty in using your vote in Congress as a protest Bihle and it and it it is a way that sometimes presidents know how to jam Congress with this. But this is a fair I think this is a fair observation. There are no This proves to you there's no good options left on this right at number one, you just you got to you gotta win the argument

at the ballot box. Number two, You've got to figure out how to I think that it's clear that even the war powers act as it stands, we're still got questions of whether it's constitutional or not because it's really not been fully litigated. That even that gives too much leeway and takes away so much of Congress's authority when it comes to who makes war, and this you know

when I don't. What I don't understand is why there's not even further attempts to restrict I mean, it goes back to why did the founder You know, if you care about founders intent, and there's a lot of my friends on the right care about founders intent, well, the founders never you know, the whole point of this is they didn't want you know, they all had memories of what these monarchs in Europe did. Remember how I view monarchs.

They're just dictators with a nicer name. But they made They would decide willy nilly when to go to war, and they would never send their own folks to war.

They would send the their populations to war, and you'd have to fight on behalf of some treaty that the king or your queen signed with another king or queen, and maybe that treaty had to do with marriage, and maybe that treaty had nothing to do with anything other than that, and you would end up going to war because you had ties to the right family or wrong family,

depending on the given time. The point is is that the founders did not want an American president to be able to do the same thing, and yet in theory that's what we already have. So I think there needs to be better clarification here, and that the War Powers Act doesn't do it in sixty days is probably too much. It probably needs to be I think a commander in chief needs to be able to respond in defense of

the United States. Hard stop was a run at all in defense of the in the immediate needs to defend the United States and the immediate It's hard to come up with evidence that it is. But look, you point out a real gap here in that, Yes, Congress is the power of the purse, but basically they would have to they're cutting off their nose despite their faces. Essentially what you're pointing out if they decide not to replenish our stockpiles, because then We're suddenly more vulnerable and that's

also bad. Thanks for the lose lose question there, David. But it's an important thing you pointed out, and I'm sorry I didn't sooner, so thank you. Zach has an next question. He writes, Hey, Chuck, the Zach from Cleveland, your resident Buckeye. I have a lot of people who want to claim resident Buckeye Zach, just so you know, but I'll let you be a resident buck Eye. I'm not going to be like my buddy TK. You know, you have to come up with very specific title names

to be the to be the resident. Maybe you're the resident buck Eye from Cleveland. Names act anyway, But I digress. You believe this is your fourth time getting a question on the show, and if so, congratulations. We will start looking. We gotta we gotta find some merch We're gonna start working on that. But he said, just a quick one here for you. Why is the market not really reacting

to this war? I keep hearing it's probably the worst ever oil crisis, or it will be, but I thought the markets would fare worse, even though gas is four dollars is because of market manipulations. Axtra starting a correct or is it just too early to tell go guards?

Is that the accepted sort of shortening of the Guardians? You know, I'm I still struggle. I still say the eye word every once in a while. Guards. I think we all agree Guardians, the fact that they're named after bridge statues guarding traffic. I don't know's. I know it's harder and harder to copyright nicknames than ever. I mean, trust me, I went through the process with my with GW and the Revolutionaries, not exactly, I mean, go revs.

We like that it's a little close to REVS. I don't know if everybody loves that, but you know, it's it could have been worse, and I guess that's probably the way to look at the Guardians. It could have been worse. Let me do it with the question yourself, because I'd like to think I dealt with a little bit of monologue. I I think that there's I think there's a little bit of of AI. There's still a sort of an the AI bubble that sort of kept

things up. It does take longer for the oil shocks to break through because a lot more countries have been smarter about keeping a stockpile and things like that, and there's still some diversification and energy. But I do think, well, you know, the market can make every predictor look like an idiot. And I'm taping this before the market's open this morning. You may be listening to it after the markets, but I have a feeling this is the week that we start to see the to see the real negative

impact start to start to hit. And then you know we're going to get You'll start to get the next you know, that next round of quarterly earnings reports that come, that'll that'll be coming, you know, May and June and all of that. That's you know, that's where you'll start to see. I mean that Michigan consumer confidence number lowest ever essentially since they started taking it. It's coming. I hate the you know, so just don't don't get rid

of the sandbags. You know, you may think that you know, you've been told to prepare for a category five storm. Oh the storm. Maybe it's not coming. Don't take down the sand bags, don't take off the ply one. Next question comes from John and mil Milwaukee. Hey, you said, Democrats responding to Republican redistaputing with similar tactics may not be the right approach, But is there an argument for using every available tool while they still have the power

to do so? More broadly, as political norms continue to be tested, do you think Congress will step in to assert its role as a check or are we moving

into a period where those guardrails are even weaker For contexts, I'm not coming at this from the far left. I vote a Republican from seventy six to eight. Just trying to understand where things stand. John and Milwaukee. Well, can I go back to another point in the redistricting thing. I think that you have a better mandate if you win, if you win space with fair maps, if you have to rig the maps to get control of Congress, is

it going to be a majority? That is take that that is that has I mean, I think it has legitimacy in the eyes of the public. That's what I would fear, and that should be a fear. And I go back, Look, I get I'm specifically I specifically focus on this Virginia thing, obviously because I live here. But it's it's a lot of it's a lot of effort, it's a lot of political capital being spent for two districts, and if two districts are the difference between winning power

and losing power. You're not going to have it is literally control and name only, so you know it's it's a It's one of those things that I just think if you're looking to rep do you want to be the party that can repair things are not? And if you're also if it's all reactionary, I just I don't think the public is going to fully embrace that either. I understand you got to look it's I think the real lesson here is use power better when you have

it right. And Democrats have watched it the last couple of times they've had it. I can't botch it this next time when they have when they get all three or it's just impossible to ever succeed when you have all three. It's not like any party can hold it for more than two years. The question is what do you get done into you turn the corner? And I think sometimes we look at and I think it's fair.

I think some some on the left look at the election of Trump and sixteen and think, well, it turns out Obama should have done more, should have pushed harder. It wouldn't have if Trump was coming anyway, what would you have done if you knew that? Right? So I guess that that's going to be that's going to be one of the arguments. But as for Congress, I think

that's a I think that's a guardrail. I think it's so weak that it can't get weaker that I do think you're going to have more and more members of Congress getting elected hoping to stop imperial presidencies. Maybe I'm maybe I'm being Pollyannish here, but I you know.

to cheat. I just don't think and break norms and rules and all those things. And I just you know, I believe that that the elections that the Democrats have succeeded in are because they've made the case to this group of voters in the middle. They're not in the middle because of they're ideologically. They're in the middle because they should. They don't expect to get one hundred percent

of of everything. They understand that this is essentially a compromise system, and they don't like the hardcore partisanship, and they keep voting against any party that behaves too partisanally. And there's a difference between partisanship and ideology, right you You know, Bertie Sanders is a good example of this. He's super progressive, but he wasn't so progressive that he said no to the to basically the Mitt Romney Obama

version of how you do healthcare. He doesn't believe in it, he doesn't think it's good, but he didn't let the enemy the perfect be the enemy of an improvement, and that was what our fact. Look, you can come from far left to far right, but if you incrementally feel as if you're making incremental progress, do you just stand on ceremony or do you try to help the majority function?

And I think that's I think that's Democrats have had more success winning over that voter because the Republicans have been behaving so parsonally, and when Democrats start behaving the same way as they did during the first two years of Biden's presidency, it's why there was such a revolt by the same group of voters the other way. It's not that they liked the policies of the right, they didn't like the hardcore partisanship on either side. Next one

comes from Jane New York. He says, check love your weekly top five list, especially when you revisit the year's most flippable Senate races. But I'm beginning to wonder whether the top five might soon be sentenced. Tone I am too, and am therefore more curious about the races that would make up slots six through ten. I like where you're thinking, and let's just say this is an idea that I

might put into practice sooner than I realized. Anyway, if you were going to compile a six through ten list today, would you be more inclined to include Democratic health seats like Georgia, New Hampshire and Michigan, Or might you be more inclined to include Republican health seats like Texas, Iowa, and Florida. My opinion six or ten is where we will have see the Senate mapp changing the most in real time. That's an excellent observation, and I think you're

right right. I think right now both Georgia and New Hampshire they're not in the in, you know, and there's no way I would have them outside the top ten. I'm not a If you know a race is going to be decided by less than ten points, it's probably in the top ten, right And when I start thinking

about the less than ten point center races, you know, by the way, I'm not one hundred percent sure North Carolina stay single digits anymore. I think Cooper's got that big of the lead. Look Whatley will spend money and one will assume the partisan stuff. But if this war keeps going as badly as it does, I could easily see a Bob Casey like, not quite the Bob Casey size of victory over rick a citting senator in Rix s Aintrum, but I could I could see a fifty

six forty four race there. But going down the rest of the Senate map sort of in order right now where my head is at right, the next one that's most likely to flip would be main right, that's too. The next one for me is probably Ohio. Now that's three. The next one after that I would go ahead and put Alaska at four, and then you know, right then you then you sit there is at Michigan because the Democratic primary is still so unstable or is it Texas

or the Republican primary is still unstable? Right, you know, I would say if corn and wins, I put Michigan there. If but if Si ed else, I'll do all sied wins, then I might put Michigan there too, right, so you have that. I'm not I don't think Miss I am surprised at how little national the Washington Republicans are viewing, how little they're They're spending more time in New Hampshire than they are Minnesota, and I think that's just a mistake.

I think they have a better shot at flipping Minnesota than do New Hampshire. I think Pappas, I think, especially if a more progressive lieutenant governor who you know, the lieutenant governor, the Tim Walls, who's not very popular in Minnesota right now, and that's who Peggy Flann again, maybe I think Michelle Tafoya, Peggy Flanagan. I think Republicans are a better shot oft Tafoya upsetting flannagain than so New

New upsetting Pappas. But I get that New Hampshire on a partisan scale looks slightly more, you know, has a higher floor for Republicans and Minnesota does. But either way, I expect those to be single digit races. So they sit out there, you know, I do think Minnesota is the sort of in any other year would probably be getting a little more attention. But I am I am surprised, and clovers are will probably guarantees that that she'll carry

everybody over the finish line on the DEMB side. And then may be why they look and would rather have New Hampshire because you have a Republican incumbent that's likely to win reelection in Kelly a Ya. Who remember in New Hampshire they run every two years and she'll be the top of the ticket. But you start looking around, right, Iowa looks like it's gonna be a single digit race. Hey what about Eugene Vinman down in Florida? Right, He's

raised a ton of money. I'm a bit skeptical, but could I see it become a single digit race?

I want to see where it can. I still feel like we're not done yet with Kansas, so we get there. But what a great idea and look for it, you know, sort of how do we say that? And for this week's top five, it's the next five? I don't know, Lauren and I will work on that, coming up with something for that. But it's a good idea. Next question comes from Troy says, here's my idea for the NBA.

Eliminate conferences and divisions, move to a shorter home and away schedule, Take the top sixteen teams for the playoffs, regardless of vocation. To make up for fewer games at a preseason, single elimination tournament with semifinals on Christmas to drive fan interest in revenue. It could also create multiple championship opportunities each season, tournament, regular season or playoffs. Troy, it sounds like the Champions League a little bit in

Europe and all the various European leagues. Look, this is an I don't I like what you're what you're thinking. The reason, you know, this biggest impediment in his owners make owners get to pocket the money that takes place in their arenas. So taking away opportunities in their own arenas is just not on the table. So we all know they probably should shrink the regular season schedule, but they won't. And you know, you're right to find other

ways to replace it. Is it tournaments? Maybe that doesn't. But you know, I was thinking about something else about the NBA, and I was wondering. You know, I was watching John Rahm play at the Masters, and I was like,

he doesn't have a chance. But you know, every everything he moves up right, there's other things you play for in the Masters. If you win, you get into the certain I think if it's if you're in the top twenty, you automatically get an invite the next year. I think then there's certainly you get there's different financial rewards depending on the place you finish, and so it got me thinking, is there a way to create a financial reward for

players based on their regular season? You know that that essentially, just like with golf, if you finish thirty fifth, you make more money than if you finish thirty six. So there's, in theory, an incentive to keep playing hard. So if there is more money on the table, more bonus money, more this money, more that money. Maybe it's maybe it's the playoff TV revenue that players get, you know, maybe there's a pool of it that all players get to get some of it depending on where their team finishes

in the overall standings of the league. But for if you if you you know right now, it's the franchises that I've on the incentive and the players have no skin in the game, right if they're you know, the players play hard, I've I don't. I don't sit here and say the players aren't playing hard. They all are playing hard. It is the coaches being ordered by the GMS and the and the and the team presidents to not play certain players to keep them out, you know,

to bench them in the fourth quarter. Players would fight and push back harder if there were financial penalties for losing a more likely to lose a game. So you know, is there something to borrow from golf that keeps people playing competitively even when they have no shot at winning the tournament. Just something to think about. But look, there's a million ideas to fix this. Hey, Adam Silver, just pick one and do it. Thank you, buddy. Last question, I love this. I'm going to call you John from

Cincinnati because of the damn HBO show. I'm sure you don't like that. Maybe you do. Let me know. By the way, I'm still waiting for I didn't get my lyrics. We didn't start the fire lyrics. One of you still ows me we didn't. You're updated, we didn't start the fire lyrics. And I await that, and so many people await that because they would like me to carry ok it. But anyway, last question, John from Cincinnati, and he writes, I haven't heard of a single report of President Trump

going to Camp David in his second term. Does anyone use it? Since he doesn't isn't loaned out of political donors? Or possibly misused. I was never a big fan of the Lincoln Bedroom being used that way by presidents of any party. I've been listening to your show for about three months and really enjoy it. Thanks and go Buck Guys and Reds John in Cincinnati. That's a good question.

I think, Look, we know why Trump didn't like it, and he likes the golf right, and he likes his set up any and he's actually not an introvert like Camp David is for the presidents. You know, he's one

of the few people, you know, most celebrities I've ever gotten to know, the last thing they want to do is to be in public. That's not Donald Trump. He loves to be around people. I've got my own theories. He doesn't have a lot of personal friends, so there's not really a group of people he wants to hang out with. He doesn't have and if you don't have close friendships, a retreat like Camp David doesn't work for you, right. I think, you know, it's so funny about it, presidents.

It's probably a good thing for a president to have, but it is. I think what's made it less popular with some presidents is the lack of a golf course to be fully transparent, like Obama just would go to golf every weekend and Andrew's and then go back to the White House. He's used Camp David a little, but he didn't love it per se either. Look, it's on my bucket list of things that I've never gotten to

see that I'd still like to see. So if there's any president that would have liked to invite me to use Camp David, here's my pledge to you. If I ever get access to Camp David, John, I will try to get you there and invite you as well as my plus one if that's possible. Don't tell missus Todd Night, but we've got to get some other people in here. It is one of these like I've heard stories, I've had people tell me what it's like, right, but it is one of the few things we've seen no pictures of.

And perhaps those that run Camp David that don't want people to know what it looks like, or glad Trump hasn't come because of the more Trump goes, the more likely it will come out. So you're right, I'm sure there are people using it that we don't know about. But on the list of outrages to cover. It's probably fifty seventh or fifty eighth on the list these days. All right, with that, we're going to take my forty eight hour break. Unless you know, news happens and we

insert something in there. I always reserve the right to see you on YouTube. I had a few things that I did over the weekend that I want to tell you more about, and I'm going to save it for Wednesday's episode, including fascinating debate that I'm moderated between Chris Christy and David French about sports gambling. We actually came up with a potential compromise. I will share with it with you on Wednesday. If you want to go take a look at the debate, it's on YouTube under the

University of Chicago. They hosted it and sponsored it. And on Friday at the Illinois Local New Summer, Marada moderated a panel of what I referred to as the venture capitalists of local news, the philanthropic organizations that have been

trying to fill the gap here. John Palfrey, who's president MacArthur Foundation, Maybel Perez Wadsworth, whose presidency of the Knight Foundation, and Julie Mourta who's presidency of the Joyce Foundation, which is a little bit more regional in the Chicago area for the Great Lakes region. But all of them have been investing in trying to help local news startups get

off the ground. And yeah, I called them vcs because they really are, except they're not trying to They don't try to get their money back once they give the money, but they are trying to be smart about putting money in places that can be used to grow an organization that can eventually be self sustaining, and that is I think the real challenge there. So a few things I wanted to share with you on both of those topics, and because I've gone long here, we will share that

with you on Wednesday. So with that, I'll see and put it out