Chuck’s Commentary - War With Iran Is Devouring Trump’s Presidency +  Ticketmaster Settlement Proves Trump’s Populism Is A Ruse - podcast episode cover

Chuck’s Commentary - War With Iran Is Devouring Trump’s Presidency + Ticketmaster Settlement Proves Trump’s Populism Is A Ruse

Mar 11, 20261 hr 22 min
--:--
--:--
Download Metacast podcast app
Listen to this episode in Metacast mobile app
Don't just listen to podcasts. Learn from them with transcripts, summaries, and chapters for every episode. Skim, search, and bookmark insights. Learn more

Episode description

Chuck Todd surveys a political landscape where multiple crises are converging on the Trump administration simultaneously — and none of them are going well. The Iran war, which Chuck reiterates is a war of choice, appears to be devouring Trump's presidency: the administration burned through nearly $6 billion in munitions in just two days, is sending contradictory messages of reassurance and escalation that appear designed to manipulate markets, and seems to be operating entirely by the seat of its pants. He warns that asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States, that energy markets are in turmoil as Iran deliberately tries to inflict economic pain, that the threat of stagflation and energy shortages is very real, and that Trump's threat to use the Fed to shape oil markets has alarmed economists. 

He argues that if Trump could undo the war he would — but this won't be Venezuela 2.0, because there's no opposition on the ground to coordinate with, you can't change a regime without boots on the ground that Trump won't commit, and if the regime simply survives, that counts as victory for Iran. Meanwhile, Trump naively buys Putin's claim that Russia isn't helping Iran with targeting, and that new polling shows a majority of Americans oppose the war — with MAGA influencers notably against it even as older rank-and-file supporters stick with Trump. Beyond Iran, Chuck hits the Ticketmaster settlement as proof that Trump talks a big populist game but the lobbyists always win, warns that a partial DHS shutdown risks snarling air travel and punishing the flying public while ICE has already been funded, and cautions Democrats not to overplay their hand on the shutdown.

Finally, on the day of the Mississippi primaries, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide races in Mississippi and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast

 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Despite runoff, Dems shouldn’t get hopes up for MTG’s district

01:30 Bennie Thompson survives primary challenge in Mississippi

07:15 War of choice in Iran could devour Trump’s presidency

08:00 Administration messaging appears to be manipulating markets

09:30 We got both a message of reassurance and escalation on Monday

10:30 Administration seems to be operating by the seat of their pants

12:00 Administration has eroded trust in institutions for years

13:00 Eventually markets will stop reacting to government statements

13:30 Administration burned through nearly $6B in munitions in two days

14:30 Asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States

15:15 Energy markets are in turmoil, Iran wants to create economic pain

16:00 Threat of stagflation & energy shortages are very real

16:45 Trump threatens to use the fed to shape oil markets, alarming economists

17:30 Partial shutdown of DHS agents risks snarling air travel

18:30 When do Dems declare victory on partial shutdown? Noem was fired

19:45 ICE has already been funded. Shutdown punishes the flying public

20:30 Democrats need to be careful not to overplay their hand in shutdown

21:00 If Trump could undo the war, he would. It won’t be Venezuela 2.0

22:15 We’ve always paid to rebuild countries we’ve bombed

23:00 If the regime survives, that’s victory for Iran

24:15 Can’t change regime without boots on the ground, which Trump won’t do

25:15 There’s no opposition on the ground to coordinate with

26:00 Trump buys story from Putin that Russia isn’t assisting Iran w/targeting

26:45 U.S. using up munitions headed to Ukraine is best case for Russia

28:00 DOJ agrees to incredibly friendly settlement with Ticketmaster

28:45 Live Nation lobbyists went straight to Trump, then deal is cut

29:15 Trump talks a big game on populism, but the lobbyists always win

30:45 Young independents hate corporate power & Trump sides with corporations

31:30 New polling shows majority of Americans are against war with Iran

32:15 Older voters continue to be strongest supporters of Trump & war

33:00 MAGA influencers are against war, but rank & file support Trump

37:45 Take action on April 9th to support local news

38:15 ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Mississippi statewide campaigns

42:45 #1 1959 gubernatorial

44:45 #2 1978 senate race

46:15 #3 1978 gubernatorial

47:45 #4 1999 gubernatorial

49:45 #5 2014 senate Republican primary

52:15 Honorable mentions

55:15 Ask Chuck

55:30 Do you have a Top 5 list coming for New Jersey?

58:45 How do we keep getting into wars without declaration from congress?

1:02:15 What will it take for the U.S. to rebuild trust on the world stage?

1:05:45 Will abortion become an issue in 2028 or has Dobbs taken it off the table?

1:09:15 Should Democrats break norms to prevent authoritarianism?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Chuck Todd's introduction

Speaker 1

This episode of the Chuck Todcast is brought to you by Wild Grain. Wild Grain is the first bake from frozen subscription box for sour dough breads, artisonal pastries, and fresh pastas, plus all the items conveniently baked in twenty five minutes or less. Unlike many store brought options, Wild Grain uses some simple ingredients you can pronounce and a slow fermentation process that can be a lot easier on your belly, little gut health there right, and richer in

nutrients antioxidants. There's also no preservatives and no shortcuts. The

Despite runoff, Dems shouldn't get hopes up for MTG's district

Wild Grain boxes are fully customizable. In addition to their variety box, they have a gluten free box, a vegan box, and a new protein box. I will tell you I have done the gluten free box. I have done it a second time. I have also used the code, the todcast code. If you use the promo code toodcast at checkout, you get thirty dollars off. I've already used it as a gift to somebody else who loves this bread. It is hard to find good gluten free bread. It is fantastic.

They give you step by step instructions. I really dig this. There is nothing like having an artesion bakery in your freezer to chase away the winter chill. Now is the best time to stay in and enjoy some comforting homemade meals with Wild Grain. I obviously highly recommend it. It is worth giving Wild Green to try. Right now, Wildgrain is offering my listeners thirty dollars off your first box

plus free croyissants for life. Come on when you go to wildgrain dot com slash podcast to start your subscription today.

Bennie Thompson survives primary challenge in Mississippi

That's thirty dollars off your first box and free croissants for life when you visit wildgrain dot com slash podcast, or simply use the promo code podcast at checkout. This is a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. Hello, They're happy Wednesday, and welcome to another episode of the

check podcast. It is a Wednesday in an even numbered year, which means were the day after a Tuesday, which means if it's Tuesday, somebody was voting somewhere the somewheres that I that we should be paying attention to special election to place Marjorie Taylor Green. That it was an all candidate jungle primary. That's why you see the Democratic candidate looking like they did really well. There was a whole bunch of Republicans. This now goes to a runoff. I

wouldn't hold my breath about Democrats there. They you know, if they lose by single digits, it's a big deal. This is still a very conservative district. And in fact, I think I read one stat that even in those big Public Service Commission races in November of twenty twenty five, I believe the Democratic candidate's it's still underperformed by some thirteen points in this district. So it's a it is a very conservative district, and it is it is going to be. It is going to go to the Trump

endorsed candidate. But you know it again, to me, single bidgets would be a big deal come the runoff, and it will be a low turnout situation. So the likelihood of it being closer than it should be is is higher. There in Mississippi, we had no really major primaries. Bennie Thompson, the longtime Democratic member of Congress there was challenged by someone younger that was not It's competitive, but not that close.

He survives. I'm gonna have a little bit more to say about the battle for the Senate because we had a big, a big change with the Montana News. I actually have a little bit of an update on where I think Montana stands in the battle for the Senate. Needless to say, it is in play. The question is how in play is it. This is going to be a complicated issue for the National Democratic Party because of the strength potential strength of this independent candidate in the

former University of Montana military veteran Seth Bodner. I also because it's Mississippi primary day, I decided. I told you I've been sitting on some book research for years that is about featuring and showcasing the all time greatest campaigns in every state. Well it's Mississippi week, so I thought I would reveal my top five all time campaigns in Mississippi history. And it's got a bit of a twist. It's a little bit of a history lesson and a

little bit of a showcase. And I think it shows you how far where Mississippi was, where it has been, where it's headed, and where it is now. But if you're a political junkie, I think you'll enjoy it. And as always, if you disagree with my order, let me know what I missed. I'd love to this to me, is open source history, lesson here on that stuff. Then of course I'll take some questions. But let's begin with what is now consuming this presidency and what may devour

this presidency, and that is the war of choice. And that's what this is, and this is what makes it so precarious politically for Donald Trump. His war of choice in Iran. We're more than a week into it, and depending on which part of the administration you listen to, this war is either going to end very quickly, extend for quite some time, or evolve into something else entirely. And that uncertainty alone would be enough to rattle markets

and policymakers. But boy, the first two days of this week revealed something else that may be even more destabilizing, a massive credibility problem, not just with allies, not just with Congress, but with financial markets. We've now had two days of trading since this war started this week, right, and both days the administration appeared to want to manage or manipulate the markets. So on Monday, right, we had this interesting glimpse of how this residency is operating during

this crisis. Financial markets open the day already rattled by the war, oil prices surged amid fears that the conflict was going to disrupt global supply. The White House quickly moved to calm those fears. President Trump suggested, I called up the CBS News correspondent and he suggested to her that the war might end sooner than expected. Remarks that did.

What by the way, he did this interview before the markets closed at four pm Eastern time, and those remarks helped ease market anxiety, pushed oil prices lower, pushed the markets higher. And then hours later he speaks in front of House Republicans, and what, by the way, what a disastrous speech that was. If he's trying to rally the troops or the midterms. I don't know if the troops are going to go through a paper mache wall, let alone one that is going to have bricks in it.

But I digress. By the evening, the President was warning that the United States was prepared to escalate the conflict and continue fighting until Iran was, in his words, totally and decisively defeated. Now it's possible he was reading for an old speech script. Maybe his mind he was trying to speed up the end of this thing, and then he had prepared remarks for the House Republican retreat. Maybe that's the thing with this administration, right, can you trust

anything they do? Can you at all trust what's coming

War of choice in Iran could devour Trump's presidency

out of their mouth means something for more than an hour. So in the same day on Monday, we got both reassurance and ended with escalation. So markets in the morning, military messaging in the evening. Is that what we're supposed to take away from this? Not one hundred percent sure it was really anything other than do whatever it took to calm the markets down and we'll worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

This feels like they are managing this by the day, by the hour, right, and we know the only guardrail that moves Trump at all is the markets. He's been unusually sensitive to market reactions, you know, care Off day. If he could pull it undo the start of this war,

Administration messaging appears to be manipulating markets

I think he already would have, just like he did with his tariffs on Liberation Day. But you can't unbomb the country Kenya. So now it appears the presidency is now chasing the markets, and this kind of rapid shift suggests something important about how this administration is govering. Right now, it looks a lot less like a carefully sequenced strategy and more like a presidency that is operating by the seat of their pants reaction instead of direction. It's just

what I said on Monday. Welcome to quicksand. This presidency is getting devoured ever so slowly by the quicksand of this war in Iran. Every attempt to stabilize one part of the situation creates risking instability somewhere else. That was Monday. Then Tuesday, a social media post from the Secretary of Energy briefly suggested that the US naval forces had successfully escorted oil tankers through the straight of hormones. Well, guess what.

Markets loved it. They reacted instantly. Oil prices plunged in just a few minutes in exchange traded fund tied to oil futures lost roughly eighty four million dollars in market value. Little manipulation of the markets. Huh. And then the post was suddenly deleted. The explanation, Ah, the caption was wrong. A staffer may have done it. They want to check that staffer's investment brokers account. By the way, maybe that's true.

We got both a message of reassurance and escalation on Monday

Do you trust them? Credibility matters big time at a time of war, and this administration has burned through so much of its credibility with the average American that you are going to see a lot of questions about everything they do or say, because what they say is not what they do, and what they do is not what they say. This administration has spent years eroding trust with institutions. Proactively. They go out of their way to make sure you

don't us certain institutions. Look what they've done to the FBI. They want the FBI distrust it, they want the irs distrust it, and they've done it. They've made allies question what we do. And now the markets what are they supposed to believe? So when something like that happens, whether it's intentional accidental, the benefit of the doubt is gone. This is two days in a row. Look, we always had the rule of three for deciding something's a trend. So we've had two. But let's just say we're all

Administration seems to be operating by the seat of their pants

watching on Wednesday to see are they going to play this game again? And markets do assume the government is trying to move prices, and it's a dangerous place when the global energy system is already under pressure for more because eventually markets will stop reacting to government reassurance they will only react to reality, and that's a scarier place to be. I've noticed Secretary Treasury has been quite quiet. He normally loves to jump in and play the game himself. Meanwhile,

the reality of the war is already becoming clear. This was amazing. During their brief into Congress, we learned we had already heard that the first week of the war was costing at least six billion dollars worth of munitions. Well, apparently they told Congress they burned through five point six billion dollars worth of munitions in the first two days of fighting alone. Two days. That's not a cost of the war. That's just the cost of the ammunition. That

doesn't count the fighter jets that were lost to friendly fire. Right, we know that's millions and millions of dollars just the ammunition. And now the Pentagon's reporting roughly one hundred and forty American service members have been wounded, most with minor injuries. But it is pretty clear what a RAN's up to. Iran is borrowing a playbook that overmatched countries have used with success in the past. Whether it was what we had to face in Vietnam, what Russia had to face

Administration has eroded trust in institutions for years

in Afghanistan. What the Taliban did to us in Afghanistan, the insurgency that we dealt with in Iraq. This is the asymmetrical part, the uncoordinated part of the Iranian Republican Guard. This is why we are dealing now with an asymmetrical fighting enemy, and that is a scary place to be. Recent history tells us why. So meanwhile, the economy, So you have rising oil prices which will impact inflation, a

potentially shrinking jobs market. Right. That was also happened last week, and it has made the s word start to appear stagflation fear because you've got oil prices surging, shipping routes to the golfer under pressure. That's going to screw with the supply chain. We saw what that did during COVID. You're gonna have the same supply chain issues going through the straight upore moves. Energy infrastructure across the region has

Eventually markets will stop reacting to government statements

become a target. Even Pete Haig said that the Pentagon was trying to push back on what the Israelis have been doing and bombing too much of the energy infrastructure. Aron's targeting energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Ua and Katar They want to make this as painful as possible in order to have our allies pressure the United States and Israel to back off because of what they're going to do to the global economy and if we end up

with stagflation rising prices combined with slowing economic growth. As

Administration burned through nearly $6B in munitions in two days

Austin Goulesby, he was president of the Chicago Fed one time Obama economic advisor, he warned recently that when rising unemployment collides with an oil shock, it creates the exact kind of environment central banks fear the most. It's hard to deal with. This is what life was like in

the seventies, and it sucked. Okay, My memories are sitting in gas lines every other day, depending on if you're an even number and odd number in your life plate, and you had a weight in line to get if it was your day for gas, and guess what, there was always a line on that front. Yet the administration is reporting exploring ways to bring gas prices down, as they should. Right, You've got to try to do something. Now, what they may try to do may risk unintended consequences.

They want to intervene. Somebody has thrown out this is such a classic Trump move. I know Trump hasn't put his fingerprints on it yet, but this feels like him.

Asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States

He wants to intervene in the oil futures markets, basically use US treasuries to mess around with the futures markets to try to drive down the price of oil. Let's just say economists reacted with alarm. One anaists warned it could trigger the mother of all short squeezes because the truth is simple. The Federal Reserve can print reserves. They can print money, right and the Treasury can print money.

Neither one of them can print oil. And if they try to use that money to manipulate the oil markets, oh my. This episode of the Chuck Todcast is brought to you by Quince. A thoughtfully built wardrobe comes down to pieces that mix well and last. That's where Quince shines premium fabrics, considered design, and every day essentials that

Energy markets are in turmoil, Iran wants to create economic pain

feel effortless to wear and dependable even as the seasons change. Quince has the everyday essentials I love with quality that lasts, lightweight, cashmere sweaters not too expensive either, by the way, short sleeve Mongolian Kashmir polos, linen bottoms and shorts. Quinch works directly with top factories and cuts out the middlemen. That's why it's more affordable. You're not paying for the brand markup or any fancy retail stores, but you're still getting quality.

Everything is built to hold up to regular wear and still look good. Quite often I'm wearing something that I've gotten from Quints. It is incredibly comfortable. I've become a middle aged man who loves his quarter zips. They have plenty of those. I have been very pleased, and it's just, you know, and I like a piece of clothing, I

Threat of stagflation & energy shortages are very real

probably wear it too much, and usually you can tell after about two or three months. That's not the case. So far with Quinn's that's been impressive. So right now, go to quins dot com slash chuck for free shipping and three hundred and sixty five day returns. It's a full year to build your wardrobe and you'll love it. Now available in Canada too. Don't keep settling for clothes that don't last. Go to qui nce dot com slash chuck for free shipping, three hundred and sixty five day

returns quints dot com slash chuck. This episode of the Chuck Toodcast is brought to you by American Financing. So if you looked at your credit card statement lately, you're working forty fifty hours a week just to buy groceries and gas things that used to be able to afford right,

Trump threatens to use the fed to shape oil markets, alarming economists

and the credit card companies are charging you over twenty percent interest for the privilege. Think about that. It's a lot of extra money out the door. It's designed to keep you under water. Well, American Financing is doing something they hate. They're actually trying to help people. They have mortgage rates in the fives. They're showing homeowners how to take their hard earned equity to wipe out that high interest debts. The average savings is eight hundred dollars a month.

So talk to a salary based mortgage consultant, no upfront fees, no obligation, commission, none of that, to see how much you can say. And if you start today, you could delay two mortgage payments. Give American Financing a call America's Home for home loans eight six six eight eight five ten eighty one. That's eight six six eight eight five one zero eight one, or go to Americanfinancing dot net.

Partial shutdown of DHS agents risks snarling air travel

Slash the Chuck toodcast use that code. Now, Democrats better be careful of something here right now because of the current shutdown involving TSA agents, right, especially as the war sort of consumes Remember the underlying issue that was driving the shutdown of the partial shutdown of DHS and the first right, So while we have all these unfolding events overseas and in global markets, we are still sitting with this partial shutdown of DHS. TSA agents are now facing

the possibility of missing their second paycheck this week. I have flown this week. TSA agents are getting kind of grumpy. All of fellow travelers couldn't have been. You could hear it. Everybody's been extra nice hanging there. Thanks for coming to work, That's what I said. That's what a lot of people said. But they're not getting paid. We've got spring break. Travel

When do Dems declare victory on partial shutdown? Noem was fired

is just starting to kick in. This is going to be one of those things where public inconvenience is not going to care about the political reasons why we're in the situation that we're in. So Democrats have had leverage in this fight, right the unpopularity of immigration enforcement of DHS. But Christy Numb's been fired. There's kind of a focus on a whole bunch of other stuff. So in some ways, when do Democrats declare victory on this, they got numb fired.

They're going to get some changes, They're probably going to get mull into at least agree to some things. That is confirmation hearing this is just like that last shutdown. They've made their point, they got some action. They certainly have the public confirmation by the administration to the American public that all was not right with the HS. They better be careful here right right now. They don't want

to do it. You know, this is one of those classic case when you're just just look at the politics of the situation. The party you're running against is just imploding on itself. This war with Iran is going to

ICE has already been funded. Shutdown punishes the flying public

be a weight around the ankle of every Republican running in twenty twenty six. So this is a classic case where get out of the way, don't offer up your opponent a lifeline, and sticking to their guns too long on this partial shutdown, which is doesn't deal directly with the part of DHS they want to be dealing with that's already been funded. You're punishing the flying public, you're punishing college kit, you're punishing families wanting to go visit

Grandma on Grandpa or Easter in passover. So I think their calculation needs to shift here sooner rather than later,

Democrats need to be careful not to overplay their hand in shutdown

because this is this is one of those again, when the public is inconvenience, politics doesn't become very clean anymore. And if airline airport lines starts stretching two or three hours during the spring break travel season, people who normally ignore the Washington mess start paying attention. So it's this is a Democrat forced shutdown of DHS. And you know there can point finger point all this and back and forth,

If Trump could undo the war, he would. It won't be Venezuela 2.0

but they ought to be a bit aware of this and ask themselves do they want to get in the way of right now is a never ending set of negative headlines impacting elected Republicans. But let's go back to Iran a minute, because the bigger challenges. I do think if he can undo this, see what this is not going well? And there's because the problem is the enemy always gets to say and Iran is not. This idea that he was going to pull a venezuela is clearly

what he thought and now that ain't gonna happen. By the way, this Kamane son, are we going to see him? Is he alive? Is he in the hospital. Was he is? He just sort of up up front for the Republican Guard here? What's going on? Do we need this is there? I think if if the Iranian regime wants some credibility still, they probably need to have some proof of life here on the Kamani Sun. It is interesting that he's been named the third leader of Iran since the Islamic Revolution

We've always paid to rebuild countries we've bombed

in seventy nine, but we've not seen or heard from him. Just something to keep in mind. But that gets us back to how does this end? What does victory look like? President has offered several versions. Ran must surrender. I don't think they're going to do that anytime soon. Iran must be rendered militarily useless. Well, how much do you bomb Tehran? How much infrastructure do you get rid of? The more infrastructure you get rid of, the more we're going to

have to pay to rebuild. And this idea that we're not going to pay to rebuild a country we've bombed, it's pretty un American of us. We rebuilt Japan, we rebuilt Germany. This is what we do. This is how we keep credibility in the world as leader of the free world. Maybe this is not the way Donald Trump thinks,

If the regime survives, that's victory for Iran

but it will be a stain on America if we're not involved in this. Now he's also said Iran must be totally defeated. What does that look like? They're powerful phrases, but they're not strategies. Regional officials people in Turkey are warning that Iran and its allies have enough drones and missiles to sustain months of fighting. And here's the thing. The Iranians have a lower level of what victory looks like for them. The regime surviving is victory, so we

could pummel them to death. This is like a bad version of Ropodote. Right. If they're still in power despite holy hell terror that has been dropped upon them by the US military, in the Israeli military, and the regime is still in power, that becomes a symbolic victory against in a way way that that that that is hard. I don't think we fully appreciate. It's like what happened with US in Vietnam and with the Russians in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, is Donald Trump can he handle months of this? Even

Can't change regime without boots on the ground, which Trump won't do

the Iranians just surviving months will do huge We'll have a huge negative impact on the global economy, gigantic impact on the global economy which will hit us. Does it cause a recession? Right? If we're in this four months. The problem he's got is he doesn't want to send in any ground troops and the and the reality is if you talk to military leaders, they are going to tell you you're not gonna be able to resolve this situation in the way he wants to resolve it, probably

without putting in troops on the ground. And yet you want to talk about a catastrup probably the point where he would lose. Many Republicans on the record that are elected office against thing like that, so they don't want to risk that. But that's the problem. When you start a war where you automatically box yourself in on things you won't do well, then you limit your ability to actually win the thing. This is why there were so many people trying to pull him back, including the Chairman

There's no opposition on the ground to coordinate with

of the Joint Chiefs. Let's not forget he was doing everything he could to make sure they were are you sure you want to do this, because it wasn't going to be clear how this was going to end, especially since we worked did not work. There was no coordination with there was no opposition to coordinate with, and what opposition there was might have been killed by the regime during the protests. So this fantasy that Trump had that this was going to be he could find his Delci

Rodriguez is Iatola Rodriguez, is just that a fantasy. I do you want to point out a few other things,

Trump buys story from Putin that Russia isn't assisting Iran w/targeting

probably the surreal moment of the week, the old Russians and Witkof and this sort of clown show that is, these negotiators that all are doing business with these Middle Eastern countries and then magically are somehow the negotiators here right. Well, President Trump held a phone call with Vladimir Putin this week and according to the Kremlin, Putin offered several proposals to help end the war with Iran. And at the same time, apparently one of Trump's envoys, this is Steve Whitcoff.

He was asked on television whether Russia might be sharing intelligence with Iran and he said, well, they reassured us, and Putin reassured him in the call with Trump that they weren't. And Witkoff said, with a straight face to

U.S. using up munitions headed to Ukraine is best case for Russia

a CNBC anchor, we can take them at their word. So again this is the same guy would not take the Iranians at their word, but we'll take the Russians at their word. If your strategy depends on taking Vladimir put at his word, you may not have much of a strategy. So, yes, the Iranians may be getting intelligence helped from the Russians. There's no doubt the Russians want.

The best thing to happen to Russian this war with Ukraine is for the United States to be using up munitions that we're going to get rerouted to Ukraine and instead we're using them up and it starves Ukraine of resources. So of course Putin's going to play all sides of

this thing. Of course he's going to do what he can to help Iran extend this war and keep the United States distracted from helping Ukraine, even though he already has a presidential leader who has little interest in helping Ukraine. But you do have a majority of the US government that actually does want to help Ukraine. Finally, there was a story this week that's getting attle bit overshadowed, but

it really erodes whatever credit. You know, Donald Trump was trying to always be this idea that he was going

DOJ agrees to incredibly friendly settlement with Ticketmaster

to get big government and big tech and big business, and he was going to be pretty tough on them, and he was going to have a strong antitrust regime. And certainly JD. Vance whose credibility right, This was the guy that said no, there will be no new wars under a Donald Trump. And then he was the one that said he loved Lena Khan and there was going to be some really tough antitrust investigations of certain companies. Well,

guess what. The Justice Department abruptly reaches a settlement with Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, in the middle of its anti trust trial. Just a year ago. The government was trying to break up the company for for operating and what many believe was an illegal monopoly when it came to live events and concerts. And then suddenly

Live Nation lobbyists went straight to Trump, then deal is cut

a deal. There's no breakup, just a handful of modest restrictions. Even the federal judge overseeing the case expressed anger at how this settlement appeared without warning. He didn't know they were still in talks. Well, guess what happened. We know you the fact that we have reporting confirming this. You didn't even know that you knew exactly what happened. Live

Nation lobbyists went directly to senior Trump officials. They bypassed Justice Department lawyers because in this case it doesn't look

Trump talks a big game on populism, but the lobbyists always win

like the Justice Department was interested in settling. Nope, they went ahead and did a deal behind the back of the Justice Department. They stepped in to protect a ticketing monopoly that millions of Americans complain about every time they try to buy a concert ticket. This is another one of these things, just like he did to the Maha people, right, and signing that pesticide executive order allowing that pesticide in.

He talks a big game unpopulism, and when push comes to shove, if a lobbyist gets his ear and more than just his ear, and it comes with some sort of financial contribution attached and whatever slush fund he wants it contributed to. But we see that this is a absolute pattern. Right, Monsanto had never given money. They gave a million dollars. They get this executive order. Right. We've seen it with the crypto guys, We've seen it with the pardons. Now you've got this Live Nation thing. I

think it under mines. You know, we have some interesting new polling from my friends at NBC News and they mostly it was mostly on the on the Iraq War and Iraq War oops, Iran War. I don't know how many times I'm gonna Freudian slip that one. But what's interesting in some of the studies they've done is there

Young independents hate corporate power & Trump sides with corporations

is this group of hard independence. It's about thirteen to fifteen percent of the electorate. They're mostly young men, not college educated, pretty diverse group of men. This is not white men. I mean, there's a chunk of white men in it, but it's pretty diverse between white men, black men, and Hispanic men, mostly younger, sort of under fifty. And these were the deciders, right, they went with Trump in

twenty four and it's these policies that they don't like. Right, they're skeptical of corporations, but they're skeptical of the cultural progressivism of the left too. But Trump continues to sort

New polling shows majority of Americans are against war with Iran

of let them down, or at least remind them that he's not on their side. He may say things that sound like he's on their side, but his actions always put him on the side of the biggest donor or the wealthiest person that gets into the room. A few notes on the polling about Iran and I thought i'd leave that, and then I'm gonna we'll get to my

interview with John Adams. What's interesting here in this new NBC News poll is that the numbers no matter how you ask the question whether you do you think the United States should have or should not have taken military action against Iran, forty one percent say the US should have, fifty two percent they should not. Then, when you ask the question, do you approve or disapprove of President Trump's

Older voters continue to be strongest supporters of Trump & war

handling of the situation Iran, forty one percent approve, fifty four percent disapproved. So basically you're looking at identical numbers. I thought it'd be worthy to note which groups is it is the is the should have versus should not? If should have ahead of the should not have. Here's where should have bombed Iran is ahead of the should not have bonbed Iran among voters fifty to sixty four.

That's gen X, that is in young baby boomers, that continues to always be the strongest supporting group of Donald Trump and MAGA. Yes it is. I am self aware that this is my generation. White voters narrowly forty seven

MAGA influencers are against war, but rank & file support Trump

six and of course self described Republicans seventy seven fifteen. But it's under eighty. As I told you, you know, eighty is a big deal. What is interesting this goes to the same thing I think I told you I hinted about this. Those that say they're a part of MAGA more than they are the GOP, they are more supportive of these strikes. Right, MAGA influencers are pretty against

this decision to strike Iran. But the rank and file, if Trump says this is what should be those that say they are more of a MAGA supporter than Republican are right there with Trump on whatever he says. What's interesting, And according to the NBC News data, and frankly, this is the other polling I've seen, Republicans who do not call themselves supporters of the Mega movement are much more skeptical about this Iran decision. Just fifty four percent support

say the United States should have bombed a run. It's still a majority, but it's ninety percent among those that call themselves MAGA Republican, and it's only fifty four percent among those that don't. So it is, as you can see, it's barely It's basically the core parts of the MAGA Trump coalition are the only ones that even have a bare majority supporting what he's doing. I mean it is that. That's what you learn from this polling, and that's on

the again. This poll was done after the best news of this war had hit the voters, which was the death of the Ayatola. What new information is going to make this better? I said, asked that question on Monday. I'm going to ask that question again. Do you hate hangovers? Well, say goodbye to hangovers. Out of office gives you the social buzz without the next day regret. They're best selling.

Out of office gumanies were designed to provide a mild, relaxing buzz, boost your mood, and enhance creativity and relaxation. With five different strengths, you can tailor the dose to fit your vibe. From a gentle one point five milligram micro doose to their newest fifteen milligram gummy for a more elevated experience. Their THHC beverages and gummies are a modern, mindful alternative to a glass of wine or a cocktail. And I'll tell you this, I've given up booze. I

don't like the hangovers. I prefer the gummy experience. Soul is a wellness brand that believes feeling good should be fun and easy. Soul specializes in delicious HEMP derived THHD and CBD products, all designed to boost your mood and simply help you unwine. So if you struggle to switch off at night, Soul also has a variety of products specifically designed to just simply help you get a better night's sleep, including their top selling sleepy gummies. It's a

fan favorite for deep restorative sleep. So bring on the good vibes and treat yourself to Soul today. Right now, Soul is offering my audience thirty percent off your entire order, So go to get use the promo code toodcast. Don't forget that code that's getsold dot Com promo code toodcast for thirty percent off. Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from personal experience. I was sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't have any money. He didn't

leave us in the best shape. My mother, single mother, now widow, myself sixteen trying to figure out how am I going to pay for college and lo and behold, my dad had one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot, but it was important At the time, and it's why I was able to go to college. Little did he know how important that would be in that moment. Well guess what. That's why I am here

to tell you about Etho's life. They can provide you with peace of mind knowing your family is protected even if the worst comes to pass. Ethos is an online platform that makes getting life insurance fast and easy, all designed to protect your family's future in minutes. There's no complicated process and it's one hundred percent online. There's no medical exam require you just answer a few health questions online.

You can get a quote in as little as ten minutes, and you can get same day coverage without ever leaving your home. You can get up to three million dollars in coverage and some policies start as low as two dollars a day that would be billed monthly. As of March twenty twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number one no medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free quote at ethos dot com slash chuck. So again, that's

ethos dot com slash chuck. Application times may vary and the rates themselves may vary as well, but trust me,

Take action on April 9th to support local news

life insurance is something you should really think about, especially if you've got a growing family. All Right, Local News Day, April ninth. Mark your calendar. All I'm asking for you to do is to sign up for an email alert, subscribe to a local news outlet that's doing something. Take a trial subscription, go, go do something to support local news. American Express, advertise a small business Day. I'm advertising Local

ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Mississippi statewide campaigns

News Day. Mark your calendars, April ninth. All right, this is normally this is a Wednesday episode, which means I have a new top five list, And in honor of the Mississippi Primaries, I thought I would give you a little bit on my top As I told you for years, I was working on a book about the you know, tales from the trail craziest campaigns in American history. Every state has that wait to hear the story about this one. So last week I gave you the five my all

time five greatest statewide campaigns in Texas history. Today, I decided, with Mississippi on the ballot on Tuesday, i'd do the top five top five top And by the way, who knows if this Senate race in the general election Sidney Hyde Smith the Republican incumbent District Attorney Scott Colem who Sidney Hyde Smith blocked from becoming a federal judge. So he decided, SCREWT now, I'm gonna run against her. Who

knows right. If he somehow pulls off a victory, this race will suddenly break into a top five because it would be one of the greatest upsets in Mississippi history. But I do expect this race, Sidney hight Smith that you know, in a special election back in twenty eighteen against Mike eSPI didn't break fifty five percent. You know, Mississippi is one of those where Democrats can get to forty six forty seven actually fairly easily, not all of this,

but fairly easily. The problem they got is at last three or four. You think it's hard to break the barrier in Texas, it's really hard to break the bary in Mississippi. Although it would cost less to do the ground in Mississippi that the State Party and the National Party have paid lip service to over the years but have never actually done so. With that, though, it was interesting and putting together this top five list, there was there's sort of one election cycle in Mississippi history that

sort of you can't really categorize. And this is so before we get to my top five, I do want to talk about the eighteen seventy five Mississippi elections because it did essentially end reconstruction. Eighteen seventy five. It was called what historians have called this the Redemption elections in Mississippi. At the time, the state was being governed by a Republican coalition built during Reconstruction, supported heavily by newly enfranchised

black voters. The governor was Adelbert Ames, a former Union general who had moved south after the Civil War, one of the so called carpetbaggers, as Southerners would call these guys, and he became one of the most powerful reconstruction politicians in the state of Mississippi. White Democrats, though, organized a coordinated campaign known as the Mississippi Plan in eighteen seventy five. This wasn't just about politics. It was about intimidation. Armed

rifle clubs appeared at Republican rallies. Black voters were threatened, beaten, and sometimes killed. Polling places were surrounded. Ames asked Washington for federal troops to protect the vote, but the troops never came. Democrats captured the legislature and soon forced Aims to resign. Reconstruction in Mississippi effectively ended in eighteen seventy five,

but the consequences didn't stop at the state line. The strategy used in Mississippi in eighteen seventy five became the blueprint for Southern Democrats across the South in eighteen seventy six. A year later, the country faced the first of what would become a handful of disputed presidential elections in our history, this one in eighteen seventy six between Samuel Tilden, the Democratic governor of New York, and RUTHERD. B. Hayes, the

Republican governor of Ohio. That crisis was resolved by the Uncomfortable Compromise of eighteen seventy seven, which ended federal enforcement of reconstruction across the South. In some ways, Mississippi had already ended reconstruction two years before the rest of the country admitted it. For the next ninety years, Mississippi functioned as a one party democratic state, the political system known

as in the Solid South. Everything on our list today happens inside a political structure that was created in that moment in eighteen seventy five. So it's hard to deal with the rest of campaign history in Mississippi without dealing with the eighteen seventy five elections that up basically ended reconstruction. So with that being said, the top five most consulate,

#1 1959 gubernatorial

and it's a combination. Look what you decide is you know these are these are consequential elections, and that's why they made the top five list. Number one on my list is the nineteen to fifty nine race for Governor, Ross Barnett and the politics of defiance. This is the first campaign that takes us to the height of the civil rights era. The candidate was Ross Barnett. He was a Jackson trial lawyer who'd already run for governor twice

and lost. Barnett was also a proud member of what was a successor to the Klan called Citizen Councils, this segregationist organization that emerged after the Supreme Court under Chief Justice or A. Warren, ordered school desegregation in Brown versus Board of Education. Barnett's campaign message was blunt. He told crowds the good Lord was the original segregationist. Barnett finished first in the Democratic primary, then won the runoff against

the Lieutenant governor, Carol Garden. Barnett won the runoff with about fifty five percent of the vote. No, there was no Republican This was the old Democratic primary decided who was governor in the South in a lot of places, so Barnett was basically unopposed even at A campaign song that became the song of the state of Mississippi was called Roll with Ross. Supporters would sing it at rallies across Mississippi, and after Barnett won, the melody eventually became

the official state song, Go Mississippi. But this campaign promising to enforce segregation wasn't just theater. Barnett was governor in nineteen sixty two when a Black Air Force veteran named James Merrith excuse me applied to the University of Mississippi. Barnett personally tried to block Meredith from enrolling. Riots erupted on campus. Two people were killed, hundreds were injured. Eventually, the President John F. Kennedy sent federal troops to enforce

the court order. Barnett's nineteen fifty nine campaign was the political mandate behind that confrontation. Mississippi voters didn't stumble into definance. They elected it. He basically promised that he was never

#2 1978 senate race

going to desegregate Mississippi schools, and that fifty nine campaign gave us the showdown at Ole, miss in nineteen sixty two. Second campaign on my list is the nineteen seventy eight Senate r This had some drama in it is the first Republican to break to crack the solid South, and it reshaped Mississippi's party. It basically created a two party system. In seventy eight, long time Democratic Senator James Eastland decided to retire after nearly four decades in office. The Democratic

nominee was Maurice Danton. The Republican nominee was Dad Cochrane. He was a Congressman from Jackson. But the race had a third candidate, Eddie McBride, an independent that was supported by Charles Evers, the mayor of Fayette. Charles Evers was also the brother of Medgar Evers, the NAACP Field Secretary of Mississippi, who was assassinated outside as Jackson Home in

nineteen sixty three. McBride siphoned off enough Democratic votes to fracture that old coalition, Dad Cochrane won the Senate seat. There were no runoffs for a general election back then. Dad Cochran won with forty five percent, Maurice Danton got forty three percent, and Eddie McBride, with the support of Charles Evers, got eleven percent. And that's how the first Republican was elected to the US Senate in Mississippi since reconstruction.

Cochran would serve forty years in the Senate, eventually chairing the Appropriations Committee. But Mississippi's political realignment began with a

#3 1978 gubernatorial

race that at the time nobody expected Republicans to win. Forty five percent was about their ceiling back then, but when you throw a third party into the race, forty five percent became a winning number. Third campaign on my list. Nineteen seventy nine Governor. This is one of these positive reform story. William Winter. He was a moderate Democrat from Granada, Mississippi. He ran for governor in sixty seven and lost. He

ran again in seventy five, and he lost again. In seventy nine, he finally won and he won big sixty one percent. The Republican Now when he got thirty nine percent Democratic primary of course was the whole thing. But the significance wasn't just the victory. It was what Winter did after, and it's a big deal in Mississippi. At the time, Mississippi had no statewide kindergarten system and no

compulsory school attendance law. Believe it or not, Winter pushed through a sweeping education reform package after months of campaigning for the plant across the state. The Education Reform Act of nineteen eighty two passed the legislature by just one vote, but that one vote created public kindergarten dramatically expanded Mississippi school system. Clarion Ledger called it the Mississippi Miracle, and

it has been. You know, look it is Mississippi trailed for a long time, but most recently you heard here from Marama Manuel how the continued investment in their public education system now has thanks to new funding and a new reading program by Jim Barksdale, founder of Netscape, they're

#4 1999 gubernatorial

in the top five in the country when it comes to third grade reading. Fourth campaign on My List nineteen ninety nine, Governor, This was a weird election. Mississippi once had one of the strangest gubernatorial election systems in America. It's kind of their own version of the electoral college. To win the governorship, a candidate had to win a majority of the statewide vote and a majority of the House districts state house districts, and if nobody achieved both,

the election went to the Mississippi House of Representatives. The rule dated back to the eighteen ninety constitution, written during the Jim Crow era. It was all about making sure no Republican or black candidate could win. That's what member every runoff rule, all the runoff rules in the South were all about denying black candidates an opportunity to win statewide and win in pluralities. So this was one of

these weird things they put into their constitution. And again when they did, it tells you everything you need to know. Eighteen ninety right, and smack dab in Jim Crow. But it never actually came into play until the nineteen ninety nine It would come into play one more time, and I'll get to it in a minute. The candidates were Ronnie Musgrove, Democratic Lieutenant governor and a Republican congressman named

Mike Parker. Musgrove wins forty nine point six percent of the vote, Mike Parker got forty eight point five percent of the vote. Two percent went to others. Musgrove won the popular vote, but the House district count ended sixty one districts for Musgrove, sixty one districts for Parker. It was a time and under the state constitution, the election went to the Mississippi House. Well, this was nineteen ninety nine, but believe it or not, the Democrats still controlled that chamber.

There were a few chambers they controlled into the early odds. Mississippi was one of them. Oklahoma was one of them. Anyway, they narrowly elected Musgrove governor, but it remains the only

#5 2014 senate Republican primary

time in modern Mississippi history that the legislature chose the governor instead of the voters. And in twenty twenty, Mississippi voters themselves finally abolished that system. Number five on my list is in a pretty important race because I think it was a preview of something that the Republican Party was about to do. It was the twenty fourteen Senate Republican primary. It was the final campaign for Thad Cochran.

He'd been in the Senate thirty six years. The challenger was a Tea Party supporting state senator named Chris McDaniel. First prime first round of the primary vote shocked people. McDaniel just missed avoiding a runoff. He got forty nine point five percent of the vote. That Cochran got forty nine zero percent of the vote, So no candidate got fifty percent a runoff was required. This looked like Cochrane was a dead duck. Right runoffs, fewer voters show up,

the more conservative candidate usually wins. In this case, it was McDaniel, and yet Cochran won the runoff narrowly fifty point eight percent. McDaniel got forty nine point two percent he wanted, by about seventy six hundred votes. Cochran survived by mobilizing a bunch of crossover voters, black voters in the Mississippi Delta who had not participated in the Democratic primary. Remember this was the same this is the same issue I've been bringing up about what John corn faces in Texas.

A whole bunch of voters who voted early in the Democratic primary now and are not available to Cornyn, the more moderate of the two candidates against Paxton, for him to potentially message to and get them to vote. Well. This is what they advantaged Cochrane had. So the Democratic primary was not really that well contested, so there wasn't a huge turnout of Democrats for that primary, So there was a whole bunch of voters who hadn't voted, so in theory they could vote in the Republican run off.

It was an ugly race. The race produced one of the strangest scandals in modern politics, and McDaniel's supporter broke into the nursing home to photograph Cochrane's bedridden wife in an attempt to embarrass the senator because he was living with another woman while his wife for years was dealing with this health issue. Four people ended up arrested. But the bigger deal of this race is that this is think about it. It's twenty fourteen. Tea Party was on

the move. That wing of the party was on the move. Cochrane beat it back barely having to use Democrats. Twenty sixteen,

Honorable mentions

Donald Trump would get elected president. Looking back, here was one of your canaries in the coal mine in twenty fourteen. Now I will there were a few honorable mentions campaigns that didn't make my top five. I do want to mention Blanche Bruce. He was elected to the Senate by the Mississippi legislature in eighteen seventy four, year before the

eighteen seventy five those eighteen seventy five reset elections. He was the first African American elector to a full Senate term, and he was the first Black American to preside over the United States Senate. Kirk Fordyce elected governor in nineteen ninety one, he became the Mississipp's first Republican governor since reconstruction. He won with fifty points eight percent of the vote

in ninety one. By the way, twenty eighteen centate runoff was a fascinating one because you had Sidney Hyde Smith and Mike esb The race was, you know, not a blowout fifty four to forty six, but whoever was going to win was going to make history. Mike sp if he had won, would have been the first black Senator since Blanche Bruce in Reconstruction. And Sydney Hyde Smith would turn out to be the first woman ever elected to

Congress in the state of Mississippi. And then, of course there were there were two controversial flag referendums that really divided the state. Two thousand and one, voters kept a Confederate era flag by a landslide sixty four to thirty six. And yet in twenty twenty voters adopted a new Magnolia flag in a bigger landslide seventy three twenty seven. Same issue, but it was two very different Mississippis. And I think

it's a good way to end there. Two thousand and one told you that Mississippi wasn't ready to move on from its from its past. By twenty two, Mississippi was ready to move on. So look, Mississippi's political history is pretty clear. The elections of eighteen seventy five created a system that lasted nearly a century. But the campaigns we walked through show how that system slowly cracked, shifted, and

eventually transformed from segregation to realignment the modern populism. It is worth noting Mississippi's election often foreshadow changes that later appear across the country. Anyway, So there's my top five list. Let me go back through them one more time for

the campaign geeks out there like me. Number one for May fifty nine governor, the election of an avowed segregationist that ends up giving us the showdown at Ole, miss seventy eight Senate Pad Cochrane's shock election thanks to a third party candidate that siphon votes away from the Democrat seventy nine governor, which gave elected a a Democrat who would transform Mississippi's education system that is still paying dividends today,

nineteen ninety nine governor. They're a weird electoral college system produces ends up being used by the legislature, and I think people were so grossed out by it that it

Ask Chuck

was like there was always it was the beginning of the end of that system. It took two decades later for it to be gone, but it would be gone. And then, of course number five on my list the Senate Republican primary from twenty fourteen. If you don't like

Do you have a Top 5 list coming for New Jersey?

my list, send me your thoughts, ask Chuck. All right, it is time for questions, a little ass check. And the first one it's perfect. It's almost a derivative. It says, hey, I enjoyed the five most consequential Texas elections. Do you have a list for New Jersey by any chance? And I do. I'm not going to give you the full list now, but needless to say two that will definitely be on this list are Bill Bradley's first race in seventy six, he knocked off an incumbent senator. It is

worth noting Harrison Williams, so that is one. The first Tom Caine victory probably is going to get in there, and the crazy Torrisselly replacement race, right, all the crazy Trrisselly in Lautenberg and all of that business. So that's just a taste. There's a couple others that we get there. I think the first Christy race is probably going to

make my list, but it is you start. You know, Bill Bradley, by the way, I have and I have another book that I've I have a lot of books I've never written, but I'll tell you that this one is I can't Believe they didn't become President book. And there'd be like, I think there's eight or ten people that are I can't believe they never became president. Bill Bradley is one of them. John Glenn is another one

of them. We may put Romney on that list someday, right, we may put in let me think, who else that I can't believe they didn't become president? List? Right? Hillary Clinton? One hundred years from now, people may say she should be on that list as well. But Bill Bradley, I think. I think what we found out is Bill Bradley's resume was more charismatic than Bill Bradley himself. And I say that with love, and I know Senator Bradley a little bit.

He was always couldn't have been more charming, more nice, but he was a guy that didn't didn't command a room in the way that you would and he just can't put your finger on it. In some ways he was too cerebral, I think. But when you look at that resume, Princeton Rhodes, scholar, all time great New York nick, all of that business, right, he should have had all the markings of somebody that the country would want to

be as the representative of America for the world. John Glenn's same thing, but he also was a bit charismatically challenged at times. His presidential hopes I've had some people say came to an end even before he ever ran in eighty four when he gave a lackluster keynote speech at a DNC convention. I believe it was in seventy six, so anyway, but yes, I'll have more on New Jersey as we get closer, but you got to let me roll these out a week at a time, so give

you a little taste. Obviously, torus Elly right, all things Porchs are going to be there, the Torch Song trilogy as we used to call it back in the Hotline days, the crazy Lotenberg stuff, all of that. But in fairness to Jersey, I would argue it's great characters have all

How do we keep getting into wars without declaration from congress?

been in the last forty years, fewer great characters in the first fifty years. But I know my friend Bill Baroni will have a lot of thoughts on this, and I have to finish consulting with him. And I know you're listening, Bill, so get your I know you you're gonna have a lot of opinions about this, So we'll get that going, all right, And I promise that's coming soon.

Next question comes from Don L. Saganaw Texas. Hey, check, appreciate listening to the podcast on Monday mornings while I try to reconnect with the brain cells necessary to serve my bride coffee in bed. Well, good for you, coffee in bed. You're a better husband than me, As I recall from my Texas public school education background, the last time the US declared war was in nineteen forty one. One could argue that America has gone to war multiple

times since that time without declaring it. Since only Congress is the power to declare war, could you explain how this continues to happen. Well, you've got this idea that in these you know that these are I guess you could say that they are abusing the part of the Constitution about a president having a certain amount of authority to quote, defend the interests of the United States without

having to go to Congress. Were we ever fighting Vietnam or were we fighting the Russians and the Chinese who were helping the North Vietnamese that situation. Now, Congress did authorize the use of force in Iraq both times. So no, we never declared war on those countries, but at least there was an authorization of use of force there. But look, your larger point is the more important one, which is the inability of Congress to do its job to assert

its authority. And I think in some ways I choose to be I choose to look at the Trump presidency as a necessary MRI. I think it has been an incredible MRI. Right, we have learned about a lot of people, a lot of entities, a lot of institutions. Right when tested by Trump, which one of them who could stand tall and who would fold like a cheap suit? And I do think you have Rand Paul In a handful

of other Republicans wanting to reassert congressional authority. I there's this could be the silver lining of this, you know, him stumbling into this Iran conflict which may not have a clean ending anytime soon. Right, we may pull back on how much we bomb the country, but it doesn't feel like what's been started is going to easily be stopped.

That you will have a different type of Congress and members of Congress who decide that they will read the Constitution and understand what Article one powers mean for them. That is that is my hope of what is the silver lining of what has been this? We now understand why why did the founders want these constraints around a run potential for a runaway executive? Just that to stop the potential of a runaway executive? Right, the whole point

was to prevent a rogue monarch. Shall we say, we have all the tools to prevent this, We just have let our ability to use those tools atrophy. Maybe maybe this decision to do what he's doing in Iran will

What will it take for the U.S. to rebuild trust on the world stage?

finally be the line that's crossed that gets more members of Congress realizing they have a large responsibility here and they need to get their act together. But it starts with a speaker. You've got right now. You got a speaker in Mike Johnson who has no idea what he's doing. He's a spino right speaker name only Donald Trump. Essentially, you know, he's at the whims of whatever Trump wants. So he's a weak speaker. We've had a series of weeks. Pelosi was a strong speaker, but she was a bit

too deferential to Democratic presidents. You know, this is only going to work is if the next speaker, when their party is in the White House, if they as certain congressional authority over partisan concerns. And we haven't had a speaker do that in my lifetime. All right, next question comes from Donovan PG County, Maryland Go Army beat Navy.

Woo can you say that in Maryland? I feel like we're Maryland, you know, I kind of I treat Navy as semi home home time root form and all the conference stuff, you know, is kind of a local ish team, right, Annapolis is local enough for me. But anyway, anyway, good for you, Donovan. I think I know, I think I know which Donovan this is. But I'll I'll be careful, so I'll say go army on this one, he says, Chuck.

Given the significant erosion of America standing on the world stage in recent years, what do you think it will realistic take both from our next president and from US as a country to rebuild the trust incredibility needed to reclaim our role as global leader that kind of restoration even possible anymore, or as the window for America to be seen as the anchor of the international order permanently In all seriousness, Donovan, I don't think anything's permanently closed,

but I think it's going to be years before we're seen as the credible leader here. It's going to take

presidents of let's just take our relationship with Europe. Before Europe fully trusts America again to be as sort of security umbrella and be willing to sort of restore the sort of Cold War order of sorts, they're going to have to see us have a succession of presidents, regardless of whether they're Democrats are Republicans, but basically two presidents in a row from both parties that treat Europe with respect, treat our allies with respect, don't want to empire, build,

don't want to do I mean and so, so I think this is you know, we're at least a couple of decades away. Look at christ sis can change things overnight. Right, America still has resources that many other countries don't, but it's going to take us. We're going to have to do more to win back the hearts and minds of

the world. Right when there's a natural disaster, we better always be the first boats there and the first you know, it's going to take a lot more international largess, the restoration of USAID, the restoration of soft power, but none of that happens overnight. So we're sadly probably a generation away from that. The next president can begin the healing. The president after that can do it. But you know, it's it's sort of you know it, I don't know. Let you know, you can flip the switch on the

Will abortion become an issue in 2028 or has Dobbs taken it off the table?

treatment of African American voters in nineteen sixty four, but it but it really took another thirty or forty years before there was full, trust full, So it just takes time. And on this one, it's going to take the American public electing presidents of both parties in successive elections who behave essentially the same way internationally, not necessarily with the same philosophies, but that we treat our allies with respect,

that we just the basic things that Trump has thrown away. Look, I kind of think we're going to need it by necessity to try to restore these things. So it's going to it's better for our security and it's better for our economy. But thanks for asking pretty much the hardest question somebody is asked. But like I said, I think I know who this is and I appreciate the curveball.

Next question comes from Roger and Farmington, Minnesota. Chuck, will abortion emerges as a national issue in the twenty twenty six midterms or as jobs effectively taking it off the table and made it a state by state issue the

next generation? I I don't think. I still think that I'm gonna stand by a prediction I made five years ago that I think, but by the end of the decade, Congress will cadify Row and I think if Democrats get the majority, in both the Senate and the House, they'll do this, and if they don't, and if they don't try, I think they could pay a political price on that front.

But I think with so many other issues, you know, abortion will come back to being an issue when the you know, cultural issues, and abortion is it's a healthcare issue, but it's also a cultural issue, and it's also you know, those issues rise up when the economy is health those issues get pushed down when the economy is unhealthy. And this is an unhealthy economy, and there's a lot of

fear out there about economic well being, job displacement. So while I expect abortion to be used in a handful of campaigns, I don't think it's a big issue in these midterms. Across the board, we're not seeing as many referendums and things like that. But I think this becomes an interest if Democrats win both the House and the Senate. How aggressive do they get at trying to codify ROW? And is there a version of codifying ROW that can

get whatever number of Republican Senators they need. Let's let's say they have a majority by two seats. Let's say it's a fifty two forty eight can they find eight Republicans to go along with them on a version that codifies Row, that says has a you know that gets some Rakowskian board because she'll be there. Do you get do you get something that gets a hand a handful of some of these? I don't know, or do we see the philibuster gone? And I think it's very possible

Should Democrats break norms to prevent authoritarianism?

that if you have a younger set of Senate leaders, we may see the legislative philibuster go. Regardless of whether it's a deer or in our administration, it does feel as if right the momentum Republicans had to almost get rid of it, the momentum Democrats had to almost get

rid of it. It feels like that sooner rather than later, we're going to have a change in the filibuster rule that gives Democrats a shot and codifying Row, which is again, what would I think the simplest, the most straightforward way they could go codifies Row into law. I think they could find eight Republican senators on that. Next question comes from a mirror from Denver and he writes, hey really appreciate the new format and especially enjoyed your two twenty

three episode. Your time machine. Segment of how how Hitler used legal processes to consolidate power was compelling, but it left me wondering how you square that with your critique of Democratic legislators pushing back against red state redistricting efforts. If a party sees authoritarianism coming, is it wrong to use every tool available, even if it bends norms, to try to stop it. How should we think about the leaders today who use power aggressively to prevent something worse

down the line? Best a mirror from Denver. You know, I've been thinking about this a lot. I've got to vote in this election in April. They're trying to redo the constitution here in Virginia to allow them to re redistrict in the middle and not use the fair district the fair district parameters that were passed into the state's constitution.

And you know, I thought i'd use this. I've actually been This is something I meant to say earlier in the podcast, and this is actually a good way for me to bring them to close the podcast with it, because I do think I want to talk about the so called save Election Bill that Republicans are trying to pass. As I've said to you before, it is an unseerious attempt at election reform, a serious If Republicans cared just about voter ID, they could get voter ID passed if

they just made it standalone. Voter I D not voter ID that says every married woman has to get their name changed in order for their voter registration roles to match. Right where you have to go back to the DMV and all I mean, the ridiculous parts of the bill that some are pushing with birth certificates and citizenship checks and all of this nonsense, you know, is not a serious It shows you that this is not a serious issue.

That if anything, my great fear is that Donald Trump, he is advocating for an unrealistic election bill, which he himself has said if they pass it, Democrats will never he hopes it means Democrats will never win an election for another fifty years, which you know, kind of says the quiet part out loud, right. They think they've not put together a bill that makes elections fair for the country.

That they're trying to put together a bill that they think, in their minds creates an uneven playing field advantage to the Republicans. Now, the irony to This is one I do think if they passed this restrictive measures, Democrats would more likely follow get all the get all their paperwork in order before a lot of Trump's voters would On this front, We've seen this, right, Democrats pay more attention to win special elections are these days and all that.

So you know, when you look at sort of conforming to the rules and all that, I think that the irony is if the save AC passed, I think it would hurt Republican turnout more than it would hurt Democratic turnout. But you know, in the same way that Democrats weren't serious about their election reform bill at HR because they threw in stuff like publicly funding congressional elections and some things that just don't have majority support in the country,

let alone majority support in the Senate. You know, it was a messaging bill, right it was. They wanted a talking point. And it's clear Republicans, this is a messaging bill. He wants a talking point. And I fear what Trump really wants is a rationale not to accept the results of the midterms. Even when I say not accept the results of the midterms, there's nothing he can do to

prevent the swearing in of the new Congress. And there is one scenario I fear that a Speaker of the House couldn't outgoings speak of their house, could insert themselves in a situation, but only if the House majorities were really narrow I doubt. I think if Democrats right now, if the election were held today, they'd win the House by a big enough margin that Mike Johnson couldn't do

anything to mess with it. But if Donald Trump wants to soothe himself by maybe he'll blame his own party for not passing the bill and say, you know, and you know, everything is usually about deflecting blame for himself, So I think he sees this save act as a way to have a built in excuse for why his party's not going to do well in the midterms, and I do think he may use it as a way not to accept the results in his own mind. Again,

isn't going to stop people from getting sworn in. It isn't going to stop Democrats if they end up winning control the House in the Senate, from getting control the House in the Senate. But as we know, it's important to him for him to create a fantasy world. You know, this fantasy world that he is, that he won somehow in twenty twenty because he doesn't want to count mail in ballots during a pandemic, and that he you know, so he likes to build these mythologies in order for

him to Maybe it's a self soothing mechanism. Maybe this is what he does instead of therapy. I don't know what goes inside his head, but he can never He is so obsessed with this idea never admit defeat and never admit you've lost, and never admit you've made a mistake, and never apologize, all of that sort of dumb advice that salespeople used to get back in the fifties. Right, These are like, you know, never take no for an answer type of mindset. And that's fine if you're trying

to sell property. It becomes gas lighting when you're trying to sell it politically on this front. Now, as for your specific question about the Democrats, here's this look. I just think this re redistricting decision by the Democrats fight fire with fire. It's going to help them in the short term, but I don't think they ever would have needed it. They could have kept their high ground and

probably still won't control of the House. They could have kept their high ground and probably still watched Texas do a dummy mander. But now Democrats have given up whatever reform credentials they had been developing over the last fifteen years by being the party in favor of quote fair districts. They're no longer a party that's in favor of this. And I don't accept the premise of what when you have to suspend a constitutional rule in order to do that is a slippery slope. And that's the issue I

have with this. It's a slippery slope. But let me make another point. Fair districts means you have the opera. You will see a different type of person elected. Maybe someone who's center right might win in a closely contested Republican leaning seat, and maybe that member of Congress is a Don Bacon type and stands up to the Republican Party in a moment that it's necessary to have bipartisan pushback.

And now what you're going to do is you're going to create a situation where the only Republicans that get elected in Virginia are going to be somebody who's pretty out of the mainstream. And you know, I fear what we're happening here is across the board, we're going to get fewer sort of incrementalists, you know, the pragmatists in Congress,

and more ideologues. So I don't think it's I mean, the whole point of fair districts is to try to have districts that are more representative of the larger pragmatic majority that is in America. And so I can't I understand the reaction. I understand, and if you're a hardcore partisan, then yes, this feels like the right thing to do. But this feels like the law of undertended consequences is going to bite the party in the ass here on this, and I think they are going to regret losing the

high ground on the reform issue. This is why I think I think very highly of these independent candidacies in Nebraska and Montana, the new one in California with Kevin Kyleie, a former Republican congressman, dropping the party label. I just I think all you're doing is giving more credibility to those that rip on both parties. Democrats had higher ground on the reform issue when it came to elections. Doing all of this fighting fire with fire just partisanizes it all.

And I think you know this idea that, oh, it's temporary and we'll come back and do it. Well, politicians don't have the trust of the public. And how often do they come back and do something. I'm not saying they won't. I'm no, you know, but I have to tell you recent history tells me that once parties see no penalty for giving up something, they're not going to

somehow voluntarily. Right. Do we really think Virginia Democrats, if they have a nine to two or ten to one advantage, are going to want to voluntarily give back that advantage. Prove me wrong. I hope to be proven wrong. I'll eat whatever crow a Democrat wants to feed me on this. But I think that I just I don't. I think this is a huge mistake, and I think this is why there's so much energy with more and more voters looking for an alternative to both parties these days, and

in this case, this is Democrats help accelerate. Donald Trump has been an accelerant on the right, fighting this fighting fire with fire business might end up being an unintended consequence accelerant of this movement of center left voters as well. All right with that, but I'd love to I'm still I'll be honest, I'm closing being shell shocked by the

Bam out of Bio eighty three point. Of all all the NBA players, where would Bam out of Bio have been on your list of NBA players most likely to score more points in a game than Kobe Bryants eighty one.

I don't know if we're ever going to get to the damn Wilt Chamberlain one hundred moment, but tell me there is no chance shoot Even on the Heat, Tyler Hero would probably be considered more likely to get to top eighty one points then Bam out of Baio, who, by the way, got seven three pointers according to the box score, but he sort of did it the Wilt Chamberlain way, right. Sure, twenty one of his eighty three came from the three point line, but sixty two sixty

two came from two points. Now, imagine Bam out of Bio next to Giannis. Sorry, you know, the Heat is a team that I you know, I jump on the Heat's bandwagon when they're good as a as a Miami native, even though they really they really weren't much of a franchise when I you know, they'd only been born about a year before I graduated high school, or two years before I graduated. But you know, I want the Heat to succeed. I love Spoe, so anyway, I'm happy for Bam,

the sneaky Heat man. They can be. They're going to be a joyous pain in the ass to the rest of the Eavestring Conference in the playoffs, and that's when I enjoy rooting for the Heat the most. All right with that, I'll see in twenty four hours. Thanks for listening.

Transcript source: Provided by creator in RSS feed: download file
For the best experience, listen in Metacast app for iOS or Android