Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Is Desperate For Iran Off-Ramp As His Popularity Sinks + Most Vulnerable Incumbents In 2026

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the Chuck Podcast. So on Monday, I left you with a little bit of a cliffhanger, right, I said I had a new announcement coming and involved sports history, and of course the minute it loaded, it turned out my friends at Variety were dropping their story on Monday, not Tuesday, and I was not trying to hide it from anybody. I thought it was all hitting on Tuesday, so I was trying to respect the embargoes that I'd done with some coverage. But yes, I've teamed up with longtime sports

journalists Ja Donde. You may know Ja from his work at the Washington Post or his work at the LA Times. That's where I first got to know him and read them. As a Dodger fan, I would consume anything Ja wrote about the Dodgers, but would also follow his other work as well, and then, of course, as part of the hour long must see TV for the longest period of time on ESPN when he had Around the Horn at five pm Eastern and PTI at five thirty pm Eastern.

Around the Horn is no longer with us. Ja's been He also is at the Medill's School and has been doing that at Midill at Northwestern, teaching sports journalism for I think it goes back to about twenty seventeen. So look, we've teamed up to do recall it dynastic, and basically what it is is every month Jay and I are going to do a deep dive on a franchise, whether it's a professional sports franchise or a college sports program

that is gone to another level. Right, there's sort of there's that where they become iconic right, what makes a team or a program go from simply successful to that next level to become iconic? And we will make no bones. We are absolutely inspired by our friends over at Acquired what they've done for the business world, long form storytelling about how the great institutions in the business world were built.

You know, they've done Google and JP Morgan Chase. They've even dabbled and talked about the NFL and F one Is businesses And honestly, we're you know, great ideas like why not do this for sports? And we're applying the same approach to sports franchises and programs. We want to discuss the key people in the history of that franchise, the decisions of turning points of forks on the road. So our first episode dropped Tuesday. You may have gotten it in the feed already, you may going, what the

hell is this? And our first franchise that we're doing a deep dive is the Dodgers, the La Dodgers. It's a franchise that has spent decades chasing the Yankees in prestige in World Series Championships. Right, you know, in many ways it was always that's the measuring stick. But along the way in order to chase the Yankees, they ended up becoming probably arguably the most innovative sports organization in all of sports history, regardless of sport that you pick.

In order to catch the Yankees, they had to be the innovators, and usually that's what happens, right. Necessity is the mother of all invention, right. And of course the story doesn't start there. The story begins in this little borough before it even became a borough of New York City, Brooklyn, New York. Eighteen eighty three is when the franchise was born. Happened to be the same year that the Brooklyn Bridge opened, and within six or seven years Brooklyn itself would become

part of New York City. But that's sort of how we're going to go through this, and Jay and I are both get involved with the research, and it really is sort of are we're making the argument. That's sort of like we're making the case why this franchise X is iconic. So every month we're going to take a deep dive into an iconic franchise. So this month it's the Dodgers. It'll be from teams you love, in teams you hate, and everyone in between. The curious those that

you're curious about. So the Dodgers this month, we're going to tackle the Pittsburgh Steelers in April. They will be the franchise that hosts the NFL Draft, so we thought that would the timing of that will be good. We're going to do these every month. In between each episode sort of again borrowing a you know, we're not trying to reinvent the wheel here, borrowing a page from our friends that acquired We'll also have a have an episode with somebody who can sort of talk about the franchise

in more personal terms. Look, we're doing this independently. We have no patron for any time we do this. So I think as much as we know there are plenty of sports documentaries out there and episodic you know sort of takes on you know, various individual players part of a franchise, we are not taking our cues from anybody.

We are simply doing it. Really, I look at it through the eyes of a of a want to be a historian, Right, I'm a history junkie, and I think what I love about Jaa and our partnership is that he you know, he's not he's as interested in the off the field stuff as he is in the on the field stuff just like I am. And in that sense, I think this is why this partnership is already working. I'd like to think. So take a listen. It's a couple takes more than it's more than two hours, right,

you can't you know you're telling the story. It takes more than a thirty minute episode. But we don't expect you to listen to it in one listening. We know that you know it may be that's why we're going to do one of these a month and not try to make you consume this here. But it's a lot of fun. It's a labor of love for me, and it's just been amazing to get to know Ja and

to work with him. Special shout out to the sort of the godfather of this idea, the third partner in this my longtime friend and colleague Steve Hall as well. So I hope you give it a chance. It's called Dynastics. Subscribe today wherever you get to all your podcasts me on, iHeart already it's being syndicated there. And look, each episode we come up with a we're both Jay and I have a mount rushmore of the four most iconic people

associated with that franchise Hard Stop. You know, I will argue for more than you know, multiple amount rushmores that we could come up with, but we decided to lean into that gimmick. And we know it's a fun gimmick, and yes it's a gimmick, but it to just narrow it down to four creates fun little debates. So we'd love to hear from you. Don't be shy about giving us your opinion on this. Trust me, in the world

of sports. The only place where people are more opinionated in the world of sports is of course, in the world of politics. So I hope you'll check it out. I appreciate the patients in this feed that I've added to it. As for this episode, we got a lot of a lot of interesting nuggets on all things having

to do aroun. I have a little bit of a campaign twenty twenty six update, including a fascinating new top five list, a unique take on my top five this week, which is top five most likely state wide incumbents to

lose to not return to office, so slightly different it would be either gov or sitting governors or sitting senators, but the five most vulnerable of those. I thought it would be a different way to slice that idea. Going forward, We'll take some questions, but obviously, in the world of politics, it is still we are still living in one story that is going to continue and will continue to dominate,

and that is all things Iran. It is as as has been foreshadowed on this podcast, and I've said in other places, Donald Trump was not going to have a lot of patience and he was going to look for an exit ramp. And he is certainly trying to talk talk his way into getting out of this war that

he got himself into. And it's clear he is struggling with the political pain is causing because remember, as I reminded you on Monday, the people feeling the immediate tax hike from this war, and in this case, the tax height is the rise in gas prices. It is more

folks who supported him, right, this is this gap. When gas prices go up, it is folks in rural and exurban America who are hit hardest. Well, that is geographically the heart of the Trump political base. So this is having a huge impact on his side politically, which is why he knows and is so desperate to find his

way out, But what does victory actually look like. It's a question that Donald Trump is trying to He's like, if we can they pledged never to have a nuclear bomb, which they had actually pledged to do before, or if

they get we destroyed their navy, he's saying, and we're able to get them from doing a state sponsor of terrorism. But and he's trying to say, and there's gonna be new people in the regime, so it's kind of like regime change. Yeah, but it's not regime change, right, And that's the problem. He's trying to spitball how he would sell victory in this, But this is the problem he's in, is that there is no easy way out of here,

and there's not a good answer because there might not. There's no victory he can declare in the next four to six weeks. And at this point they kind of know it. And it looks like he is desperate to get out of this energy crisis that he's helped create. So we've arrived at one of those moments in American form policy where every path forward carries risks. And this

is I've said up before, he boxed himself in. He boxed the country in You know, no matter your political persuasions, your political feelings about Donald Trump, America's prestige is on the line here and that's a huge problem. So what are the options that are facing it. It's clear that militarily, he's being given the option to escalate. Right, we continue to send more troops who look like they would be the first troops on the boots on the ground for

some sort of ground incursion. Maybe it's just simply to keep this straight of horn moves open. But the type of resources we're sending over there now is in case the President makes the decision and gives the green light to putting actual American troops on the ground in Iran. But of course that's an escalation. And if you do that, that risks a wider regional war and more energy shocks and a long term commitment with no clear endgame. If

you're doing what he's doing now, he's trying to hurry up and de escalate, okay, but he risks something that's potentially just as dangerous, handing Iran a strategic victory without ever formally admitting it. Right, the Jemes survived who won this? For Yes, we've absolutely eviscerated their military, and we've certainly degraded their ability to cause problems for the United States. What about for the region itself? And any circumstance that

he's negotiating at the moment continues to keep. And this is where geography is Iran's best weapon. Here they're going to have a large say over who gets to travel through the Straight of Hormones. So former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who was the Defense secretary for Donald Trump in his first term, and he's no Iran dove, trust me on this, but he put it as bluntly as anyone has. Earlier this week, he said, the United States declares victory and

steps back. Now, Iran will effectively claim control of the Strait of Horn moves. And we know what that means.

It means that any moment in time they can essentially create an energy problem for the United States and the world, but it's a political problem for the US and is you know, he had his own warning here was even more vivid because he expects that under any scenario, they're going to start to charge basically charging attacks on global shipping to go through the Strait of ormentors because if you were then, you know, Israel wants regime change. How

do you know that they've set it? Prime Minister that now who's said it? So they're not going to feel secure. Is the United States is going to guarantee that the US would somehow prevent Israel from attacking them? Again? Are we going to do that? Is Israel going to sign off on that? I'm skeptical. So here we are, we're going to be in a situation where the Iranians will

control the strait, this regime will control the straight. I mean, still roughly twenty percent of the world's oil passes through this narrow passage, and that continues to give the Arminians leverage over the global economy. So it's hard to imagine that. First of all, they didn't have this much. You know, they arguably always kind of had this leverage if they chose to use it, but there was an uneasy piece

that was there. But now by engaging in this, they know and what is their incentive not to continue to cause disruptions because they know their days are numbered if they just sort of stand pat So it's hard to it's hard to see how we get an uneasy cease fire here that somehow is attainable in sticks. I hope I'm wrong. I don't think any of us want to see a war that escalates where we have American young American men and women coming home in body bags fighting

a war of choice. Yes, aron's a menace, but it would be a war of choice. Is this the time to have this war? I think we know what the answer to that is, and certainly President Trump has created a situation with our allies that makes it where we're going in alone on this. I'm going to get to

more on that in a minute. But Mattis is warning becomes something bigger than just a military assessment, because militarily, you know, it's both the military has had massive strategic victory here and at the same time, there's only so much the military can do. Mattis said one other thing in his interview. He said, you know, we're in a

tough spot. Now. This goes back to being boxed in. I can't identify a lot of options. This is coming from Jem Mattis. This isn't coming from some left wing blogger, okay, because that's the reality. There's no clear path forward here, and it's clear they didn't think this through at the White House. They really believed, or the President believed that this was going to be just like Venezuelan and that

the incentive to survive would somehow. You know, he doesn't seem to acknowledge that this regime has kept power for forty seven years, which means there's a lot of people that are devoted to this regime and they're not going to go away quietly because their livelihood depends on the regime staying in power. You would think Donald Trump would understand when you have kind of that kind of loyalty, right,

It's the type of loyalty he tries. He wants people loyal to him, not because they like him, loyal to him because they need them. Well, that's the type of loyalty this regime is created. They're not going easily. This

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am a customer. And there's another reality that's hard to ignore. Airpower alan doesn't change regimes. History continues to show this again and again. So even after weeks of strikes, even after the damage to all these Iranian military targets, we're still left in a position where we've demonstrated force and we haven't secured the outcome, and are how are more you know, more rats sort of fall on deaf ears to those that have survived, just surviving, what more is

there for us to destroy? And again this is asymmetric. Just the regime surviving is victory for them. So we're stuck. Neither side can force the other to change course, neither side can claim a decisive when, And the longer that continues, the more this becomes about perception and who looks like they held firm and who looks like they blinked, And

let's just say Donald Trump is blinking lot. So this isn't just about Iran. This has got second order effects already in motion among the Iranian diaspora menary who hope this would be a turning point. Now that hope fades right among the Gulf States, the question becomes is the United States still the security partner of choice? And if the answer becomes even slightly uncertain, they don't walk away, but they're going to hedge. That's where China comes in.

There'll be regional arrangements, There'll be a lot of self preservation. Because alliances don't break overnight. They hollow out. And this is yet another uncomfortable part of this. We didn't just stumble into this moment. Donald Trump helped create this moment. Sometimes the hardest thing is to say in politics are the most obvious ones that because they're complicated, but because they're so basic, you assume one doesn't need to even say it. It doesn't need to be said. But if you

hollow out expertise, you get worse decisions. If you surround yourself with people who agree with you, you make more mistakes, and if you alienate your allies, you end up alone when it matters. This is an advanced political science. This is organizational leadership one oh one. Yet here we are right. How did he hollow out the expertise, He gutted the National Security Council, He surrounded himself with a bunch of secofans. Right there is no gym Matis at the Defense at

the Pentagon right now offering, say e questionable advice. There's Pete Hags who, let's just say, couldn't carry Jymnatis's jockstrap. So you've got a Secretary state in theory that I think is sort of reality based. But his political future hinges on whether Donald Trump thinks he's the heir apparent. So we know what kind of limited pushback. And notice when you get all of the the fact that JD.

Vans and Telsea Gabbert have both used the same spin while the President came to this conclusion, and Marco Ruby, while the President decided there was an imminent threat, and the President decided right by the way talk about CYA. None of them want to own this. They're making it clear this is a Donald Trump decision all the way through. They somehow think that they don't have it, that this is just sustain and not a tattoo. But we shall see.

So here we are. He has spent the last year here. In a couple of months berating our allies, using tariffs to bludgeon our allies, and ad tacks, creating all sorts of uncomfortable alliances, making NATO, you know, threat with the threat on Greenland, shaking the confidence of our NATO allies. So that's how we spent twenty twenty five as a nation. And then he's boxed himself in and on this Iaran decision.

Could use some allies to help us out with the straight of Oar moves, and they're all like, hey, good luck, brother, you're on your own now. You can sit here and complain. Where are our allies? Well, you alienated them. You made it a lot harder for them to stick by us, because sticking by the United States is suddenly politically unpopular

in places like the UK, Germany, France and Italy let me repeat myself, or Japan. Can you believe that standing on the side of the United States is unpopular in those countries? That's a problem. Ironically, Donald Trump had in theory diverse voices in the room. He had a national security team that looked like it did represent a range of perspectives, from a dove like Tulsea Gabbert to a hawk like Marco Rubio. But here's the difference between theory

and practice. No one appeared willing or able to tell the President something he didn't want to hear. General Kine came the closest, but he even did that through proxies, right through interviews with the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, New York Times. And that distinction matters a lot here because dissent isn't about having different resumes in the room. It's about whether anyone feels empowered to challenge the decision that's already been made. And if they don't, then what

you have is in a debate, it's a performance. And we spent all this time beating up our testing all of our alliances. We treated them as transactional people, even publicly lecturing them. The Vice President lectured Europe about the

their internal values. When I thought the whole point was real politique. You do you, we do we? And it raised a simple question, if you knew you might be heading into a conflict that could disrupt global energy markets, would you spend the previous year making it politically harder for your allies to stand with you, or would you be strengthening those relationships. Because what we're seeing right now isn't a collapse of alliances. It's something more subtle. It's hesitation,

it's hedging. It's a quieter kind of distance. They're not saying they won't help, but like, wrap up this war and then we'll see what we can do. And then this is where it all connects. When you narrow the circle of advice, when you prioritize loyalty over challenge, when you weaken alliances, you don't just change the environment around a decision, you actually change the decision itself. The risks look smaller they weren't. The timeline looks shorter, it wasn't.

The outcome feels more manageable. Well, this hain't been as well. Now. It's interesting here is that polling is showing this war is unpopular, Okay, not surprising, and that's a huge issue for him, and I think he's very aware. I mean, that's the problem here, right. He knee jerked his way into this, and now he's going to knee jerk his way out of this. And it ain't going to be

that clean. I know he thinks it could be, and he has you know, rolled the dice before on Middle East decisions, and he's not and it hasn't hurt him

yet until now, and I think he still thinks in his head that if they can somehow wrap this up, he can declare some sort of victory and somehow the markets will write themselves sooner rather than later. There's no doubt this global economy and the American economy has been resilient. But at some point it ain't going to be this resilient, and more importantly, everybody's going to start hedging all over the place. What's been interesting is what we're watching among

independence in the polling. They don't like Democrats, they don't like Republicans, but they particularly don't like Donald Trump and Mega. So that is why independents look like they're supporting Democrats, because what they're voting against is Trump and MAGA is Trump. Trump is Mega support among independences that sit in the low twenties. That is a huge problem here. Wherever independence

go in Chunk is usually when that party wins. Something else that's popped up in the polls that I kind of want people to pay attention to. Marquette is out, and what's interesting is that they did fave on favor ratings for Democratic Party, Republican Party and then MEGA believe it or not, the Republican Party are the best ratings of those three entities. Democratic Party they had the lowest

rating of those three entities. But MAGA was looked closer to being as unpopular as the Democrats were, and certainly more unpopular than Republicans. And now there's always been a distinction between those that call themselves Republicans and those that call themselves MAGA, and of course anything MAGA is always

more loyal to the President on everything like this. Around war, we've seen some polling showed like ninety nine percent support among MEGA voters, but among those that consider themselves more Republican than MEGA, it's been like fifty five to forty. You know, it's not been a clean break, you see. And I know, I know MEGA influencers are more anti war than the rank and file of MEGA, right, but it tells you how bad the MEGA brand has become.

Where the Republican brand is in better shape with voters

than the MAGA brand. If you're a Republican on the ballot, you should be relieved that this is true. I think the great fear among some Republicans is that Trump and MAGA was going to drag. The republic can brand with it. If you've got voters willing to distinguish between the two, this should be the time to go rush and grab it.

Except guess what this Republican Party and Jerryman. It's made primaries so important that Republicans can't distance themselves fast enough from Trump because if they do, they won't win primaries. This is the trap that John cornyns, right, So it's a it's it's it's interesting here none of this is yet benefiting the Democrats brand, even as it benefits them in binary choices when you do those head to head tests.

But the fact that this is really and in some ways you know, this Iran war could be the death knell for the MEGA brand, right because even though the influencers want the MAGA brand to be something else, as Donald Trump has always said, Mega is whatever he says it is. And it turns out the voters are look at MAGA through the prism of Trump, and maga's numbers

are as bad as Trump's numbers. But the fact that the Republican Party's numbers are actually slightly better than MAGA and Trump in theories an opportunity for the Republican Party to find its way away out of the wilderness, away from Trump, if they so choose. What that really tells you is that independent voters, because that's where these numbers are coming from. Independence, have a better view of Republicans in general, the Republican Party when it's not associated with

Donald Trump. I'll be curious to see what that means in twenty twenty eight and does the unpopularity of Trump's on pot you know, if this isn't recoverable, and there are always points and second terms where once it's gone, it's gone. He's bounced back a few other times, there's going to be a point he stops bouncing back. This might be the time he stops bound back, which means

there's an opening. And what's interesting, there's one there's one person I'm keeping an eye on, closest when it comes to somebody who would run as a sort of a non maga but maybe mega call it, you know, not anti this, and it's Brian Kemp in Georgia. And guess what state is the only state so far to do a gas tax holiday. Brian camp in Georgia. Feels like an easy way for Brian Kemp presidential candidate to distinguish himself from a JD. Vance or Marco Rubio in the primary.

So not lost on me that Camp you know, already has that feather in his twenty twenty eight cap should he need it, and you're starting to see polling conformed to that. Look, this is just early days of this, but I think this is going to be worth keeping tracking a which is, how can does the Republican brand start improving in the mind of some independent voters simply because Trump and MAGA have become so dominant, and what Republican office holders find a way? Hear that? All right?

With that, I had a few more political items I want to get to. I think I'm gonna punt. We're going to do that. We'll do that with tomorrow's episode, including this bizarre sort of Chuck Schumer sort of attempt to sort of quell the There is clearly a growing band of senator Democratic senators that want Schimmer to go.

He did a crazy interview with the Wall Street Journal where I think he sort of exposed himself as either being a bit out of touch or not fully on top of what is happening here, and at the same same time, you know, one can understand what he's tried to do, and so if Chuck Schumer doesn't want progress to look like Progressives have defeated him, he may want to go out on his terms rather than test the premise whether he could survive a vote himself come December,

should Democrats end up with the majority of the Senate. But I'm gonna get more than that tomorrow. Will do a little bit more on the democratic side of things. But considering where we are at the run, it is, as I've said before, there is only one story impacting American politics until until it is no longer front and center, it's going to be hard to focus on anything else. This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you

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so use that code. Top five top top jest top all right, this week I got a unique take on the top five list. I've been giving you my top five most you send it, seats most likely to flip, your top five governor seats most likely to flip. I've done some historical top five lists, and I'm going to keep that going. But I thought i'd do a slightly different take on on something, because which is the top

five right now? My top five most vulnerable state wide incumbents Because in some cases, you know, like the case in Louisiana or Rhode Island, where there's a state wide incumbent who's going to lose, but they're the same party is going to end up with the seats, so they don't doesn't make my top five most likely to flip, right, whether it's in the senate races with Louisiana or the

governor's races with Rhode Island. So that's why I thought we do a little bit of a take on that, and I wanted to give you right now, who I think are the five most vulnerable state wide office holders who are more at this point, four of the five are more likely to lose than win given the situation that they're currently in literally for them underwater. One arguably

has still got a slight advantage here and it is in my fifth slot. So number one on the list of most vulnerable incumbent is John Cornet, right, He's already been forced into a run on off. We will find out after Memorial Day whether that'll happen. A new pole came out a couple of days ago showed him down eight. He's sort of the forty one percent, you know, he basically the number he got in the primaries, the number he's sitting on the runoff. Paxston looks like he's got

the you know, the more likely. You know, this runoff is going to probably be lower turnout, and that is likely to advantage Paxton on this front. Trump is clearly not decided whether to endorse. I think in some ways he was probably he doesn't like being smoked out and the corn and people were trying corning in Thune. We're trying so hard to corner him into an endorsement within that first forty eight hours after the Texas primary, and when it didn't happen, then they knew others were going

to get to him. And that's exactly what's happened. Others have gotten to Trump. So I think we're at the point now where I don't know if he gets if he gets comfortable endorsing, I just don't buy it. Not if poles continue to show corn And losing, and he does not like tobacco loser. You know he does not. He will back somebody trailing in the polls if it's early in a primary and he thinks and he knows that it will flip. He doesn't like doing it late because he does it want to. He hates being with

the losing candidate. And if he can't be convinced that Corny could win, I don't think that solo endorsement is coming. So Cornn's in the one slot. In the number two slot is somebody that I haven't been mentioning. But it's like not even a close call. Dan McKee, who's the current governor of Rhode Island. He ended up replacing Gina Romundo and as governor back in twenty twenty two. He has just been in a hole for it feels like months. I mean, he's got a job approval rating that at

times has been in the twenties. There was a primary University of New Hampshire poll that had him at eighteen percent. He's likely his main rival is actually the niece of Chris Dodd for those of you keeping score at home, Helena Folks. He's a former executive from CVS the pharmacy, which is headquartered in Rhode Island, so they have that is that is not a net negative being a former CVS executive. Being a former CVS executive is mostly a

net positive there. And look there's the you know Rhode Island, it's a very strong democratic state in general, so the primary is where all the action is. And you see these labor and business divides, like all the normal divides you normally see in a general election in Rhode Island always takes place in the primary, kind of like what we saw in Illinois, right where interest groups know that there's only what it's a one party state, so you start to see that, Well, Dan McKee is just it.

I you know, it's unusual for a governor to lose primary, but it happens. It is happened. Frank Murkowski, Lisa Murkowski's father, basically over appointing his daughter of the Senate seat, among other things, lost to primary back in twenty Back in twenty oh six, this woman named Sarah Palin ended up primary in him and she became She became governor and I think kind of made a name for herself there for a few years. But this is why I wanted to do this top five lists. I haven't been able

to get this on the table. So Dan McKee number two. It is hard to see a path. You could make an argument that McKee should be in the one slot most likely to lose, Cornyn in the two. The only reason I'm putting corn in first is he's already been through round one of a primary and now the runoff.

I mean it is sitting out there in theory mcke's that primary is not un till September, and so he's in theory got five more months to fix himself. So just because he's got more time, he's number two. Corning's number one. In my third slot is Bill Cassidy, another one who's more likely to lose in a primary than in general. He appears slightly more competitive in a multi candidate primary as Julia Letlow, who is basically the unofficial

official endorsed challenger of Cassidy in some form. Right, these are the getting let Low in. This is where Trump wants to be. It's likely who he's gonna end up supporting. We'll see how heavily he comes in. But there are multiple candidates in the race, and the more crowded this primary is, in theory, the better for Cassidy. But it

would end up in a runoff as well. I mean, they remember the state of Louisiana changed its rules basically just so that Bill Cassidy could be primary because of his impeachment vote pure and simple, right, Louisiana used to be a jungle primary state, all parties on one ballot. If nobody gets fifty, top two face off. Well, the fear this would have been Cassidy's opportunity, he would have.

Cassidy would be winning reelection under the ole the rules of Louisiana's election system that they had the first time he ran. I promise you there is, and he would probably be running a different race. Now maybe there isn't you know, Maybe he's somehow done. He has figured out how to alienate the left over with his playing footsie with RFK Junior and the right by it voting to

convict Donald Trump. And maybe there's no coming back from that, and because of that squeeze, there really isn't There isn't you know, he's so alienated both that nobody wants to see him succeed either way. He's easily number three on the list, but he he's not dead yet. And I just think that that is you know, I it is

you know, I keep waiting. You know, I just don't know if he ends up benefiting when Bobby Kennedy messes up, because at the end of the day, even though he's been a critic now of what Kennedy's doing, he's still the guy that got Kennedy into that job. And we kind of and I think we all know why he did it. He thought this is if he thought, this is what it would take to get Trump's endorsement. And we know what the Trump White House did, well, they said, well,

certainly it will help. He was never going to he

was never going to flip. He was never going to do it. That's something I don't know why Cassidy misread that situation Number four on the list, Susan Collins. She trails both Mills and Platner and polling and I've seen she is now benefiting that Mills and Platner are going after each other. Mills is up with another attack ad on Platner. And we're going to find out, right, how

much do voters in Maine care about this stuff? You know, how powerful is the Donald Trump effect on Democratic primary voters? We already know that Republican primary voters that the you know, the personal character issues just are not what they used to be, not at all. Right, Donald Trump is is sort of you know, is sort of almost like pardoned anybody running for office on the Republican side on character. And there's clear a lot of Democrats think, hey, they

they shouldn't be as picky either. I think this is generational. I think those that have grown up mostly living online know that a lot of dumb stuff gets said. So I think they're going to be a younger voter is going to be more forgiving for what Platner did, and an older voter is going to be less forgiving. Right, And in Maine, Maine is the oldest state, oldest electorate in the country, the single oldest electorate in the country.

So I do think we underrate Mills's chance to get to win this primary this way and death by a thousand cuts then I think, you know, I know, the energy feels like it's with Platner. What don't underestimate sort of the main electorate, which is again not a young electorate. Just something to think about there. As for Susan Collins,

I think she's you know, I think she's in. I don't see a way out of this for her because independence have turned on her and I don't know if there's going to be any moment where she can show her independence again. And if anything, it's you know, she's had those opportunities and she's chosen partisanship over independence. Right.

If you think about Lisa Murkowski's is and Collins, who both essentially have a similar electorate, you know, cranky independence, that's the Alaska that's the Alaska voter arguably, and that's the main voter. Collins tries to always find herself on the side of Republicans. Murkowski always seems more likely to find her side herself on the side of not being there with the Republicans. Being more independent or sometimes voting

against them. And I think Murkowski's displayed independence more credibly than Collins has. And that's why I think this time it's hard. So when I say the first four on my list are all underwater, all trailing at the moment, Corny and McKay, Cassidy, Collins, that is true. Number five on the list is somebody who's not trailing. And I have to say, here are the people I had to choose from who I think are all vulnerable incumbents at the moment. You have the governor of Nevada, Joe Lombardo,

being a Republican and a dem leaning state. You know, he knocked off a one term incumbent. He's going to be facing a wealth on the challenger. Nevada is as swinging of a state as there is. I think he's holding up as well as you could under the circumstances, but he is the wind is decidedly blowing against him.

And the Governor Arizona in this case, I think she's got the wind at her back a little bit Katie Hobbs, but and she you know, if Andy Biggs is the nominee, I think she's in better shape than if Schwikert, David Schwikert is the nominee there, so there, that's a nominee for the fifth slot. See Katie Hobbs, Joe Lombardo, Dan Sulivon Alaska, John Ossoff and Georgia and Pete Ricketts. And I have to tell you right now, at the moment, I think that the incumbent and that right now is

in the toughest shape. Who has who has the most well formed challenger is Pete Ricketts in Nebraska. Look, he's still favorite, It's still Nebraska. But man, it is fascinating to watch how well how resilient Osborne is. He's already taken a bunch of incoming claiming he's a Democrat in independent clothing, and it hasn't really budged his numbers. So, you know, while I'm still you know, let's see he

can get to fifty. I think the path to forty seven is pretty clear for him, somewhere between forty five and forty seven. But can he get to fifty? But right now, right now, I think Ricketts more so than Slomon, more so than John Houston in Ohio, another candidate for my incumbent list here, And you could make a strong case, although I'd argue John Houston's an appointed so he doesn't count as a real incumbent in that front. So my fifth slote a little bit of a Husker surprise, just

like they've been to me. I know they're a four seed, but I still think of Nebraska basketball as a bit of a dark horse here, which translation means I'm probably betting on Iowa. But there you go. There's the top

five most vulnerable statewide incumbents in the country. John Cornett, Dan McKee, Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, and Pete Rippons. We'll update the list again next month. Ass chuck. All right,

let's do a little last chuck. Cue the music. Hey, this has been from Colorado. I saw recently that John Hickenlooper dropped out of the caucus assembly process because he was not getting the support that he needed to show up on the primary ballot. I also saw some pulling that he is trailing fairly significant the primary right now to his challenger, Julie Gonzalez. If he loses, he would be the third single term Senator in a row in the last two Senate seat from Colorado. How about that,

I guess You're right that has been the case. Have there been other cases where this has happened in the Senate? Thanks? Ben? Actually, yes, Ben, here's your answer, because it is the So I guess it would say I love that you identified it as Class two. This would be the Class three seat in North Carolina. Okay, So let me give you this this run of one term senators. So you had Robert Morgan elected in seventy four, lost reelection in eighty John East

elected in eighty he ends up dying, it's vacant. There's an appointment Jim Broyhill. Then you have in eighty six Terry Sandford is a Democrat, is elected, He's a one termer. Locke Faircloth is elected in ninety two, defeats him, defeats Terry Stanford, he's a one termer. He loses to John Edwards. John Edwards decides not to see reelection. And then that's when Richard Berwin's that seat in two thousand and four. And that was two terms. So here we you have

Edward's one term, Faircloth one term, Sanford one term. So there's your three in a row. Really, you could argue four in a row because East got one term Morgan five in a row, so basically after sam Irvin, right, sam Irvin resigns early in his seat. After sam Irvin, the most famous you know, and you know doing the Watergate hearings, that North Carolina Class three seat had five straight one term senators. Some of them lost reelections, some of them chose not to run, one died, So you

had a death presidential candidacy and incumbents losing twice. What a fun question. But like I said, I'm sure there are more than that. But if I found a five spot for you, I think and look, you know, for folks may not realize, Colorado has got an interesting little system you can if you go through the cock you can go through the essentially the state convention process, and I'm not going to get into the details here, where you can qualify for a primary for the primary ballot

without having to do petition signatures. You can just get it and you can try to get the endorsement. But the obviously, the party apparatus these days are dominated by the by the base voters, right base progressives with Democrats based mago for Republicans. So if you're sort of a center left or a center right politician, You're not going to be able to win an endorsement from your state conventions these days, no matter where you are, particularly in

a place like Colorado. So I understand why he's going to try to go in primary his way. Here, my guess is, once he starts spending money, he's going to be quote unquote okay, especially because you'll you should expect

to see a very large primary turnout. There's an open seat for Governor Michael Bennett, the other senator from the state is the sitting Attorney general or running against each other in the primary, So there should be a large turnout, and I imagine Hickenloopers should be okay in a large turnout. I don't know what the fireable offense is, and if the fireable offense is he's not progressive enough. I don't know if there's enough enough voters to knock him off.

But we shall see, you know, he certainly. I've said this before. I think being an incumbent on the ballot that's vulnerable this year hard stop. Obviously, some vulnerabilities are greater than others, but I would keep that in mind. Next question, Matt Minneapolis, Hey, as a horse race election guy, elections guy, I've really been enjoying the primary night live streams. Nice. Please keep them coming. We will. Next one is going to be for the Virginia special referendum, by the way,

in on April twenty first. Then we'll do all the May primaries. May. He's going to be a huge primary month, so mark your calendars. Recently, you said that if Antonin Scalia had lived, Trump wouldn't have been elected, which seems to apply. Hillary would have won in twenty sixteen. But you also said the year it said the year you thought she could have won was four. I do believe that.

Can you explain what you meant? Also, with and I owe money and the transfer portal changing college basketball, do you think limiting players to one transfer could help fix some of the current issues and restore more team continuity? Matt in Minneapolis, Go Gophers? All right, you got three questions here, so yes, I think ultimately, I do believe Hillary Clinton's best shot at the presidency was actually two thousand and four, the year she didn't run, you know,

not OA in not sixteen. What do I mean? Why do I say, oh, four more than any others? And I did this as a what if exercise, By the way of alternative history, she was the front runner. She had very high favorable ratings at the time, probably was higher favorable ratings than John Carrey did at the time or even Al Gore. But that would happen with Hillary, right like you know, when she was in the middle of a political campaign, then all the negatives would negative

negativity would come and it would lower her numbers. But still, look, we were in the middle of a war right after nine to eleven. I just think that being the former first lady with another president sort of with a former president as the first gentleman, would have probably been enough to convince that slice of voter who didn't want to change horses in midstream during a war. And we were

at ward twenty oh four. So that's why I believe the only Democrat that could have won maybe Al Gore as a sitting former sitting vice president, former vice president, But I actually think that would have been the moment.

I think Hillary would have been seen as hawkish enough, and frankly, those voters that might be a little hesitant about electing a woman president might have been reassured by the fact that there's a former president who she happened to be married to I just think when you're changing, if you're asking voters to change commander in chiefs, they're

going to want more familiarity. And that's a case where I think this is where by point, this is where her her being tied to a former president was an asset, and I think a four would the only time was an asset. Right, it was a liability in no A because it didn't signify change, and by sixteen it was

a liability frankly for the same reason. Now, yes, do I think that she ends up winning, I think she's only a one term or if she does in sixteen, if Scalia lives, I do because I do think Trump had been disqualified and I think the only thing that brought many Republicans back to hold their nose and instead of voting Gary Johnson as a as a protest vote, but when ahead to vote to Trump was the fact that there was an open seat that was going to

be that could change literally change ideological hands depending on the election of the president. And I do not I think if Scalia is alive, I do not think. I think you have more of those events, those people that didn't like his character, who weren't ready to come aboard the Trump train, probably end up in the Gary Johnson column, and Gary Johnson probably ends up closer to ten percent, which would have been the decisive figure for Hillary Clinton.

So there's my explanation of that. All right, let me take one more question here, because I went long on both of those. This comes from Patrick in Los Angeles. He goes the talk of I five and I ninety five and political party messaging made me think of one of my favorite pop culture quotes that unintentionally sums up a lot of American politics. You see Homer meaning Homer Simpson. You see Homer. There's a place between New York and

Los Angeles. We call it America. Do you have any pop culture quotes or moments that unintentionally carry weight politically,

Patrick and Los Angeles, I'll tell you one that I use all the time. I always say my favorite political pundit is Buffalo Springfield, which of course is a group, not an individual, but some people think it Buffalo Springfield sounds like an individual. But there's a there's a great Buffalo Springfield song. So the song title this is a Buffalo Springfield song. The song title is for what It's worth.

It was written by Steven Stills. But it's but I always say, you know, I think the most important, the smartest political pundit we've ever had in handicapping elections as Buffalo Springfield. Because and this goes back, and I'll tell you the origin of why I became obsessed with this quote. The quote goes, there's something happening here. What it is

ain't exactly clear, and it's that first half. Now, the rest of the stanza goes, there's a man with a gun over there telling me I gotta beware, So I leave the gun line out. But there's something happening here and what it is ain't exactly clear. It is my favorite cop out political punditry quote. And the first person I ever saw use it was actually Stan Greenberg. He

was Bill Clinton's polster in ninety two. We made it our quote of the day in the Hotline, and it was just I just thought it was the funniest thing ever, because it was like, it was clear to me that the reporter who was quoting Greenberg thought they were taking a serious quote from the polster, going well, you know, there's something happening out here, but what it is ain't exactly clear. Didn't say he was quoting somebody, so the reporter was sort of oblivious to the fact that he

was doing a lyric, you know. And so I've always just thought, I mean, you know, when you're a political reporter, the weirdest things crack you up, and this one always cracked me up. So it's always actually been my go to, Hey whenever I you know, if I've been asked for the empteeenth time, which way are things going? You know? What did this poll mean? Well? You know, you know, Leicester, there's something happening out of here, and what it is

ain't exactly clear. You gotta stop. Hey, what's that anyway? So with that, I will leave you here. I've got a real great rant to come on the Wizards and Nationals. I do believe, and I challenge you, my listeners, to to prove me wrong. Of all the form. If you want to count NHL as your fourth major sport, NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL, is there a four major sports city

in worst shape than right here in Washington. I don't think there is another for sport, major city, major league city who doesn't have at least one team can actually contending for a title. The best we got is sort of the Caps and OV who you just had and can't ever count them out, and who knows, right hockey playoffs, anything can happen. But let's be honest, it's kind of weak tea, right, It's aging. You know, it's a mess here. The Wizards and Nats are embarrassing, embarrassing their fan bases.

And I have a lot more to say about this tanking thing, but I've got to wrap up this broadcast, so with that, I'll see in twenty four hours.