The "debt trap" meme claims that China is intentionally lending vast sums of money to poor developing countries in Africa, and elsewhere, with the express intent to seize physical assets in those countries when they inevitably can't repay their debts. This fanciful narrative sounds compelling, but the problem is that there's literally no evidence from the past twenty years since China became the world's largest bilateral creditor to support the claim. It just isn't true. The reality of how China...
Jul 17, 2025•46 min•Season 16Ep. 51
A new generation of scholars is reshaping China-Africa research. More geographically diverse and digitally fluent than the field’s early pioneers of the 2000s, this cohort brings fresh perspectives and tools to the study of China’s engagement on the continent. Yet deep structural barriers persist. African and Chinese researchers still face sizable obstacles in shaping research agendas, as U.S. and European institutions continue to dominate decisions about what gets studied, who receives funding,...
Jul 11, 2025•1 hr•Season 16Ep. 50
While the U.S., India, and countries in the Persian Gulf are all moving quickly to establish new critical mineral supply chains, the European Union is struggling to follow suit, particularly in Africa. The EU currently lacks a cohesive policy framework that would bolster mining companies, support partner countries, and encourage the development of a mineral processing sector that can lessen Europe's current dependence on China. To do this, the EU should follow China's model in Africa, where it p...
Jul 03, 2025•58 min•Season 16Ep. 49
Borrowers in Africa and other developing regions are expected to repay $35 billion of Chinese loans this year, with two-thirds of the amount coming from the world's poorest countries. Many of these debts were taken out in the mid-2010s and are now exiting their grace periods, putting enormous pressure on government budgets that were already under strain. But this isn't a problem just for borrowing countries; Chinese creditors are also finding themselves in a difficult bind. If they push too hard...
Jun 27, 2025•41 min•Season 16Ep. 48
China is emerging from the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran in a much weaker position. For years, Beijing counted on Tehran to serve as a bulwark against Washington. Today, though, that's no longer possible as the Iranian government and its proxies across the Middle East have been neutralized, at least for now. The conflict also exposed a major Chinese vulnerability following threats that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the attacks on its nuclear facilities. This would be d...
Jun 26, 2025•56 min•Season 16Ep. 47
Over the past 25 years, China’s military engagement with Africa has grown dramatically. In 2000, fewer than 5% of African weapons came from China. Today, Chinese-made armored vehicles are used by 70% of African militaries, and China has become the continent’s largest arms supplier. Officer training programs have followed a similar trajectory. At the turn of the century, fewer than 200 African officers were trained in China; today, that number exceeds 2,000. Paul Nantulya, a veteran China–Africa ...
Jun 20, 2025•57 min•Season 16Ep. 46
In this new era of surging instability and geopolitical uncertainty, so-called "Middle Power" states are rapidly diversifying their foreign policies to deepen engagement with other countries in the Global South, while reducing their exposure to the U.S. and China. But the approach taken by these middle power countries varies a lot. A new report by the Körber Foundation in Germany surveyed foreign policy experts from India, Brazil, and South Africa, revealed sharp divergences in how these countri...
Jun 18, 2025•59 min•Season 16Ep. 45
For years, China has been seen as the pivotal international economic partner across Africa. That was certainly true in terms of steadily rising trade volumes and a fire hose of state backed loans that built roads, railways, and ports across the continent. But when it comes to investment, China's always been a laggard behind the United States and the former European colonial powers. Today, it's the UAE, not China, that is the continent's largest source of foreign direct investment. Charles Kenny,...
Jun 13, 2025•31 min•Season 16Ep. 44
U.S. foreign policy towards Africa has been totally upended since Donald Trump returned to power earlier this year. Gone are the decades-old humanitarian programs that have been replaced by a new strategy that focuses on expanding U.S. commercial ties and countering China's presence on the continent. The State Department's most senior diplomat for Africa, Troy Fitrell, the senior official in the Bureau of African Affairs, appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Sub-Committee on Africa this ...
Jun 06, 2025•1 hr 26 min•Season 16Ep. 43
In Zambia, efforts to clean up a massive acid spill from a Chinese-owned mine have been met with skepticism, despite government assurances. Officials claim restitution is underway and rehabilitation plans are in place, but activists question the fairness of compensation and lack of independent assessments. Meantime, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, tensions are growing between major players in the cobalt and copper sectors. A public dispute between joint venture partners Ivanhoe and Zijin ov...
May 30, 2025•47 min•Season 16Ep. 42
From Panama to Kenya to Indonesia, a growing number of developing countries are being pulled into the intensifying rivalry between China and the U.S. For these middle powers, the stakes are high as they must carefully navigate the tension to avoid provoking either side and risking serious consequences. But rather than accommodating the U.S. and China, developing countries should instead pursue a different agenda that puts their interests first. Jorge Heine, a former Chilean ambassador to China, ...
May 26, 2025•57 min•Season 16Ep. 41
Chinese e-mobility technology is poised to transform large swathes of Africa's transportation ecosystem in the coming decade, but in very different ways than in other regions where EVs are the primary focus. Bicylces, scooters, tricyles, tractors, cars, minibuses, and full-sized coaches, all made in China, are becoming increasingly popular in dozens of African countries. This week, Eric & Cobus are thrilled to introduce CGSP's newest podcast The Africa EV Show with Njenga Hakeenah, which hig...
May 23, 2025•57 min•Season 16Ep. 40
After several months of steadily improving ties, India-China relations appear to be cooling once again following the recent clashes in Kashmir. China’s military support for Pakistan during the conflict earlier this month has triggered fresh concerns in New Delhi, with many now fearing that the fragile détente built over the past year is starting to unravel. Tensions further escalated in recent days after Beijing announced new names for dozens of locations along the disputed border with India, dr...
May 20, 2025•41 min•Season 16Ep. 39
The tiny breakaway nation of Somaliland is making a bold geopolitical wager: deepening ties with Taiwan, courting conservative power brokers in Washington, and positioning itself as a rare pro-U.S. ally in a region where China holds significant sway. But this strategy comes at a cost. By crossing Beijing’s red line on Taiwan, Somaliland has likely closed the door on Chinese investment and guaranteed opposition in global forums where China holds veto power. Somaliland foreign policy researchers M...
May 16, 2025•56 min•Season 16Ep. 38
The Nigerian military signed a deal with Chinese state-owned weapons manufacturer Norinco to set up a factory as part of an effort to develop a domestic arms production capacity in the West African country. The deal is the latest in a series of announcements about increased Chinese weapons sales to African militaries, which are rapidly changing battlefield dynamics across the continent. This week, Eric, Cobus & Géraud discuss how Chinese drones, surface-to-air missile systems, and other adva...
May 08, 2025•52 min•Season 16Ep. 37
Two years ago, Daniel Russel and Blake Berger, senior analysts at the Asia Society Policy Institute, embarked on an ambitious project to bring U.S. and Chinese stakeholders together to speak in a safe, controlled setting about their respective countries' aid strategies in the Global South. This was a big undertaking given how few direct contacts there are today between U.S. and Chinese stakeholders, particularly on a topic like international aid and development that is largely overlooked in the ...
May 07, 2025•54 min•Season 16Ep. 36
Chinese overseas development finance is unrecognizable from what it was just a few years ago. After suffering tens of billions of dollars in losses, Chinese lenders have moved to de-risk their lending to countries in Africa, Asia, and across the Global South. Instead of those once massive bilateral loans from the two main policy banks in Beijing, Chinese lending now encompasses a much more diverse array of actors, particularly in Africa. This new approach was on full display last month when Keny...
May 02, 2025•58 min•Season 16Ep. 35
Kenyan President William Ruto wrapped up a four-day visit to China on Friday and returned home with a massive new railway deal and more than a billion dollars of investment pledges. Ruto's successful closing of the Phase III extension of the Standard Gauge Railway to the Ugandan border comes after nearly a decade of Kenyan lobbying in China. Also, this week, Eric & Géraud are at the Salzburg Global Forum in Austria, where they joined a diverse group of civil society stakeholders from across ...
Apr 25, 2025•49 min•Season 16Ep. 34
In February, a tailings dam at a Chinese-owned mine in Zambia collapsed, releasing 50 million liters of acid waste into the Kafue River—a critical water source for millions. The spill sparked national outrage and raised urgent questions about environmental oversight, China’s expanding role in Africa’s mining sector, and Zambia’s ability to safeguard its natural resources. Freeman Chiwele Mubanga, head of research at the Centre for Environmental Justice in Lusaka is part of a growing civil societ...
Apr 18, 2025•44 min•Season 16Ep. 33
Donald Trump strongly feels that U.S. security alliances in Europe no longer serve Washington's long-term interest. In his view, the U.S. is being "ripped off" by wealthy countries that can afford to pay for their protection but choose to rely on the United States instead. He also says much the same thing about the U.S. military presence in Japan and South Korea. Curiously, though, the Philippines is different. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently visited Manila and reaffirmed Washigt...
Apr 14, 2025•46 min•Season 16Ep. 32
Kenyan President William Ruto is scheduled to travel to Beijing later this month for an official state visit, where he's widely expected to finalize a long-awaited deal to extend the Chinese-built Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) to the Ugandan border. But the key question remains: will China agree to fund the 475-kilometer extension? Eric and Géraud also explore why a Chinese mining company continues to produce large volumes of cobalt in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, despite a government ba...
Apr 11, 2025•1 hr 16 min•Season 16Ep. 31
With new tariff threats from the Trump administration and rising tensions across key markets, companies and governments alike are scrambling to understand what decoupling—or de-risking—actually looks like in practice. From electronics and apparel to solar panels and electric vehicles, China’s role in global production remains formidable. But is it unshakeable? In this special bonus episode, Eric is joined by Agatha Kratz, Juliana Bouchot, and Lauren Piper from the Rhodium Group, whose recent rep...
Apr 09, 2025•41 min•Season 16Ep. 30
U.S. President Donald Trump insisted on Monday that he will not back down from his massive tariff campaign that he launched last week and even promised to impose even higher duties on Chinese goods in response to Beijing's 34% tariff retaliation on U.S. imported goods. Kyle Chan, a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University and author of the High Capacity Substack, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the impact of the escalating world trade war on developing countries and how China is respond...
Apr 08, 2025•57 min•Season 16Ep. 29
In January, the Indian government published a new critical minerals strategy that details how the country aims to bolster supply chains necessary for its green energy transition. While the report underscores the importance of developing domestic supplies of lithium and other transition resources, it also calls for closer international partnerships, particularly with mineral-rich African nations. India has deep ties in Africa, particularly in eastern and southern countries on the continent, but i...
Apr 03, 2025•58 min•Season 16Ep. 28
China and Vietnam have taken two distinctly different approaches in how they manage their territorial disputes with China. The Philippines is leaning into its alliance with the United States along with new security pacts with more than half a dozen other countries. Vietnam, in contrast, is going it alone. Ironically, Vietnam is expanding its territorial presence in the disputed South China Sea through island reclamation, while the Philippines is merely trying to hold on to the territory it alrea...
Apr 02, 2025•56 min•Season 16Ep. 27
From afar, the China-South Africa trade relationship looks amazing. Last year, the two countries sold more than $52 billion worth of goods to one another — mostly raw materials from South Africa and finished goods from China. But when you look at the figures more closely, some real problems become evident. While trade volumes between the two countries have grown exponentially over the past 20 years, so has South Africa's trade deficit with China, which reached almost $10 billion last year. Marve...
Mar 28, 2025•46 min•Season 16Ep. 26
Millions of Zambians along the Kafue River are coming to grips with the devastating environmental impact brought about by a massive acid spill from a Chinese-run copper mine. A tailings dam broke on February 18th, sending 50 million liters of toxic water into the Kafue River, killing fish, wildlife and endangering public health. Sino-Metals, the Chinese mining company, apologized for the accident and said that it is “doing its best” to clean up the mess. Eric, Cobus, and Geraud discuss the polit...
Mar 21, 2025•1 hr•Season 16Ep. 25
During his Senate confirmation, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio denounced the so-called "liberal international order" that he said was obsolete and no longer working for the United States. Since he and his boss, President Donald Trump, took office eight weeks ago, they have thoroughly upended the post-WWII global order that the U.S. itself established and led for the past 75 years. The changes in Washington are happening so fast that it's impossible to keep up. Every day, institutions many a...
Mar 18, 2025•43 min•Season 16Ep. 24
Southern Africa has become a focal point of geopolitical competition, with the U.S., China, and other global powers maneuvering for influence over key infrastructure projects and critical resources. The Lobito Corridor Project, a railway and logistics initiative spanning Angola, Zambia, and the DRC, is at the center of this contest. Questions around financing, U.S. aid freezes, and China’s long-term economic strategy highlight the broader struggle for dominance in the region’s transportation and...
Mar 13, 2025•55 min•Season 16Ep. 23
In recent years, the relationship between Chinese mining companies and local communities in many African countries has been very contentious over allegations of environmental damage, a lack of transparency, and tensions with local civil society groups. In Zimbabwe, a new initiative—the China-Africa Dialogue on Green Minerals for Responsible Investment (CADRI)—is taking a different approach. Rather than relying on confrontation, CADRI brings together civil society organizations, policymakers, and...
Mar 08, 2025•39 min•Season 16Ep. 22
