Team Buck. Welcome to the Freedom Huts. Tuesday, February twenty second edition of the program. We have the Biden administration calling in an invasion by Russia in Ukraine. We'll discuss where this is likely to go. Plus Canadian cops apparently gloating about their excessive use of force on peaceful trucker protesters up in Ottawa. And I'm here in Mara Lago and doing a sit down with my MainMan, Clay Travis,
and of course former President Trump today. So we got a lot to discuss, as you no doubt can tell based on what I'm already talking about. What does it mean that they're calling it an invasion? And what are Russia's next moves? What are they going to do? What if they escalate dramatically? Could they even try to eliminate the Ukrainian government in a matter of days. I'll break down for you the best war gaming of this situation
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gone on last twenty four hours. You have Russian forces have occupied now officially they've even had a vote in the Duma in the Russian parliament to allow for Russian external military operations. And right now there is in fact a ten to fifteen thousand and it's probably more than that. We didn't even really know person military incursion Russian forces into two breakaway provinces. The provinces in what is generally referred to as the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. You
have Luhansk and Donetsk. Those are the two main cities and main areas within Donbass of the concentration of these Russian forces. This is obviously a matter of grave concern for all of our European allies. Let's remember that we have been brought into military conflict in Europe in the recent past. There was the bombing campaign in the former Yugoslavia, there was what happened with the US forces in Kosovo,
US involvement in the Balkans, really two times over. So it's not unthinkable that our European allies could get drawn into this and that maybe with them we could have a larger role than what you want to Here's the issue as we're seeing it play out, everyone's i think, recognizing this right now. First of all, the time for diplomacy is rapidly disappearing. Here's the former NATO Supreme Allied Commander's quite a title, James Stavridis on Ukraine saying diplomacy
is running out. Play nine. I think you continue to strengthen the Ukrainian military, you prepare for further military action, and you prepare to create a resistance movement inside Ukraine, and I think that could have a deterrent effect on Vladimir Putin as well. So I think it's time to move out pretty strongly. The time to parsewords and to try and find a path to diplomacy I think is slipping away from listen, path to diplomacy does seem to
be rapidly slipping away. And let's understand that this is now all in Putin's hands. NATO is not going to take military action against Russia, and I think to do so would be crazy. Ultimately, we're in a tough position here because this is a story of substantial news interest, and I know people are going to say to me, We'll hold on a second, Why are we so focused on this Ukraine is not our problem, and that's true.
It is not our problem, and we should not deploy military there, but understand that it will very quickly become an issue that affects the global economy. If this turns into all out war, which is a a real possibility here between Russia and Ukraine, you're going to see we've already seen a drop in the stock market, and people say, well, if I don't know in stock do I care? It affects the broader economy. But you're also going to see gas prices spike and inflation could get even worse. In fact,
it's likely to get even worse. So there will be ramifications of this that affect us. But that's a long way from saying this is our fight or our problem in a military sense. So I want to make sure that we have that distinction. If anything we've learned of the last twenty years, you don't want to be drawn into fights where you don't have a clear sense of exactly what you're trying to accomplish and what the goal is and why are you there, what is the purpose
of it. So I understand that our border and I'm an advocate for keeping this in mind, our southern border is more important than Ukraine's borders and should get more media focus and should get more attention. But right now we do have an invasion underway, or at least that's what the White House is calling it, and I think it's worth us focusing in for a moment on what
that could mean for us as well. All to talk about sanctions, I was going to tell you, as a guy he used to be a CIA analyst and spent a lot of time studying and learning about sanctions against Saddam and sanctions against other sanctions are not gonna cut it. That's not the big weapon. People in diplomatic circles like to say those sanctions, sanctions are going to stop Putin. Putin is worth billions and billions of dollars that we estimate we know about. I mean, we don't even know.
He could be one of the richest people in the world. What you think that this is a guy who's got financial disclosure reports every year that people are looking at. But the sanctions stopping him, it's not something that's likely to happen. Here's NBC News International correspondent Ker Simmons pointing out, yeah, Putin, he is not scared of these threatened sanctions. Play one. President Puchin has been preparing for this day for many,
many years. And why I say that, it's because in the Sexteo of States, I'll meet the Press yesterday talks about massive sanctions, but in a viscial sense. Fundamentally, President Puching isn't Tritons. He's not frightened because he's inner circular already sanctioned. They can't leave Russia. He's not frightened because
he has those reserves. And I think he's not frightened too, because he knows that potentially his next moves down the line might be to cut off the gas to Russia, causing to cut off the gas to Germany, causing panic in Germany. Maybe some kind of a massive cyber attack, massive cyber attack. There are a lot of things that Putin could do here the question that I have, they've sees the breakaway regions, and this is the playbook used in late two thousand and eight, right as the transition
was happening from Bush to Obama. In late two thousand and eighth, there was the reality here of a Russian playbook underway in Georgia. Abkhazia at South Ossetia, and those breakaway provinces then were used. Now I think as a means of testing out. They tested out how they would do this, so they have breakaway provinces and going forward they will absolutely do the same thing in this area of Ukraine, although this is a much more substantive, larger,
more populous region. You're talking about the whole of the Dawn Boss. So that's an important indicator here. What are the Russians next move? There are a couple of options as I see it. Putin could walk away with what he's got, the full consolidation of these as part of the Russian Federation. He's created the reality on the ground, they've been distributing Russian passports, they have the narrative in place. He could walk away, and that doesn't mean he won't
try to take the rest of Ukraine later. This may just be a long term beachhead for that, subsuming if you will. If I think that's the word of the entirety of Ukraine into the Russian Federation over time, that's the best case scenario as I see it. Right now, He's not going to bend the need of sanctions, No way putin. Please this guy's x KGB. He's not messing around.
Next level of problems or concern here would be if they use this as a means for a provocation, a PROVOCATSI where they decide that they're going to have a false flag in these regions, say that the Ukrainian military attack them. I don't think you Ukrainting military will attack them, but say there's been an incident, Ukrainian military attack and now because Russian Federation forces have come under assault from an active war. That will be the end of it.
We're gonna leave it there for today. Team, I'll talk to you more about everything tomorrow. Thanks for being with me. Shields high,