Tim Murtaugh - Why Trump Will Win in 2024

And I think what is less talked about because that point's kind of obvious, I think, but what's less talked about is the fact that if you look at the publicly available evidence, the public polls that are out there, Donald Trump has been shown to be ahead in a matchup with Joe Biden in the general election in a couple of polls. Just in the last month, he's been

ahead in several different national polls, beating Joe Biden. And that's important because in twenty sixteen, and especially in twenty twenty, where I was I was now on the twenty sixteen campaign, but let's talk about twenty twenty. In twenty twenty, Donald Trump was shown to be beating Joe Biden nationally in a public poll exactly zero times. And in just the last month, Donald Trump has been shown to be ahead of Joe Biden in several different national polls, and that

is significant. And to me, that tells me that Donald Trump not only is he in great shape, which is obvious in the Republican primaries, but he's in a better position today against his likely Democrat opponent in a general election than he ever was in twenty twenty or twenty sixteen. Why is that, Well, I think it's a lot of things. The economy is really hurting Joe Biden. And you know, the White House will tell you, oh, everything is fantastic.

The economy is coming back, and we've added all these jobs. And of course that's sleight of hand because those are jobs that are returning because of the opening up of the economy again after the pandemic has passed us. But then you have the I mean, scandal after scandal after scandal, and I think that the media, try as they might, has tried to protect Joe Biden from this. But Joe Biden, I think to the average voter and his approval numbers bear this out. He looks like a weak, ineffective old

president who just isn't up to the job. And I think, now this Hunter Biden stuff, the Devin Archer testimony of the other day, is going to really really hurt Joe Biden because now they've got the media in position where you just can't ignore this anymore. They ignored the laptop and everything that was contained in it for a long

long time, and they just can't do it anymore. These allegations and the facts that Devin Archer brought to the table the other day in his testimony, they're just they're so explosive that not even the New York Times or CNN can ignore it.

if they could pull that off, you know what I mean? Like, why should we believe it's any different?

ballot harvest. And they certainly did a better job of turning out mail in ballots because they were much more widely used. And you know, it was frustrating to me. I honestly, I never saw enough evidence of actual fraud

that would have made a difference. However, if you look at Pennsylvania for the first time, two and a half million people voted by mail in Pennsylvania, and its really hard for me to believe that every single one of those two and a half million votes that were cast by mail were actually cast by the people whose name was on the envelope. You know, do all two and a half million people know that they voted in that election?

get shut down. I feel like the President Trump was headed towards not an easy re election, but I think a re election that was going to come in. I think exactly as we had it planned. He was going to ride the economy. The economy was really unprecedented. It was so strong, it was going gangbusters, and there really weren't going to be a lot of things that Democrats could do to shoot down all of the accomplishments of

the Trump administration. COVID presented a couple of things. It gave the media something that they could use to beat Donald Trump over the head with every single day and somehow say that a global pandemic that affected every single country on Earth was somehow the fault of one American leader, which is preposterous, but that's what they did, and it gave Joe Biden the easy excuse to never ever go out and campaign and keep probably the worst candidate in

our lifetimes off the campaign trail and have a legitimate reason for that to be the case. So I think there were a lot of things that went on in twenty twenty, and despite all of it, the media loves to talk about how close twenty sixteen was. Twenty sixteen was a race that was decided by about eighty eight thousand votes in three states, eighty eight thousand votes spread

across three states. Twenty twenty was even closer than that, less than forty four thousand votes spread across three other states, So it was about half again as twice as close as it was in twenty sixteen. But somehow the fact that the closeness of the twenty twenty race is not something that anybody discusses. But it was razor thin. It's

going to be razor thin again. I think you're going to see another tight race that is decided by very small margins in a handful of different states across the country. It's going to be tight again.

And TV ads are still important and the message of the campaign is important, and the day to day fight is all very important, but it's less about persuading people these days as it is about just producing votes, and many times that means you know, actual the actual function of going around getting people to fill out their ballots, sign their names, and where it's permissible, even some places where it's not, what's called ballot harvesting, which is, say,

for example, what Democrats love to do is you go into a nursing home and let's say there's three hundred and fifty residents of this nursing home. You get all of them to fill out their ballots, and then one person can carry all three hundred and fifty of those ballots and go put them in a drop box somewhere. I mean, if that is not the obvious opportunity for fraud in voting, then I don't know what a better

example would possibly be. However, that is permissible under the law in many many states, and Democrats do a much better job, i'd say, vloiding the laws and doing what the law allows, and in many cases probably pushing the envelope. But where it's where they are much better and much more organized, and they don't have any opposition from within

their own party to choosing those methods of voting. I think a lot of our people, as I said, on principle, and I think they're right that they don't want to do the things that are ripe for fraud. However, the other side's going to do it, and if you lay down your weapon while the other side still has their weapon, then you've disarmed yourself and you're at a distinct disadvantage. They're just better at it. They do it with no remorse, I think, I guess that's probably the best way to say it.

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criminal justice system are our question for someone else. Politically, However, in the terms of the Republican primaries, here, I think it goes without saying really because everyone can see the evidence that all of these indictments actually help him politically in the Republican primary. So I mean, by now it's

kind of background noise. And I think this next one, the January sixth indictment, is going to be I think even more apparently political, at least to the Republicans who are watching, because they're going to be indicting him based on the behavehavior of other people who are not him, And so I think a lot of people will see that as just as political as all the rest of them.

But here's the situation. This is how you know that it is rebounding to Donald Trump's favor is that most of the Republicans who are in the field running for president who are not the ones who are just openly attacking him every single day, like Chris Christy or Asa Hutchinson everyone else, every time an indictment happens, or every time someone on the left or in the Biden administration attacks Donald Trump with the apparatus of the federal government.

Every single time, most of them have to defend Donald Trump in some way. And it goes all the way up to vivek Ramaswami, who during one of the indictments, actually stood outside the courthouse where the grand jury was meeting and held a press conference and promised to pardon

Donald Trump if he ever became president himself. Of vivek Ramaswami said that, And really the only way that you can tell that vivek Ramaswami is not endorsing Donald Trump is that he maintains that he's a candidate for president himself. And you know, there are others who attack the DOJ and they attack the politicization of the federal government, the weaponization of the federal government. They don't necessarily stick up

for Donald Trump, but they attack the attackers. And so it's a very complicated political pretzel for the people who are running sort of with one foot in the Donald Trump lane. They don't want to attack Donald Trump because they need to be able to attract his supporters. And as you have seen over the course of the last number of years here in American politics, when Donald Trump is attacked, his supporters feel as though they themselves are

being attacked as well. And obviously the political opponents and the Republican primaries know that, and they are treading very lightly. And I don't think that any of them can really figure out exactly how to handle these things when they keep happening. And this latest indictment will be another example of all that.

you have handy. I'm not sure maybe the Democrats that is their game plan that they want Donald Trump to be their opponent. But as I just said, we've seen now a series of national polls that have Joe Biden in front. I'm sorry, I have Donald Trump in front of Joe Biden in a national head to head general election matchup, which never occurred in any public polls in twenty twenty. And I think maybe you're starting to see some of the Democrats changing their mind and thinking, maybe

we're not too sure that we want Donald Trump. They've been they've been focusing a lot more on Ron De Santis. You have this big skirmish that Kamala Harris entered over these new educational standards in Florida, and Kamala Harris went at Ron De Santis, I mean, full bore. She could

hardly attack him any harder. So, you know, I think it's they're showing signs that they're not exactly sure who they want to run against now, certainly using what people are calling lawfair warfare through the law against Donald Trump as a key indicator that I think that they're trying to make sure that if he is the Republican nominee, that he's as damaged as possible going into the general election and perhaps they still do want him as the opponent,

but I'm not sure that the public evidence shows that it would be a slam dunk for Joe Biden or anybody else should Donald Trump be the nominee.

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dollars more. All right, Tim, what do you think.

paid or working for any of those campaigns. But if I were going to try to message to independent voters to get them to vote for Trump in twenty twenty four if they did not support him in twenty twenty, I would first I would again remind them that twenty twenty was sort of a unicorn.

getting government largely out of the way. I think one of the un heralded things in the Trump administration was the reduction in government red tape and the reducing of federal regulations, getting government and the EPA in particular, out of the way. We were energy independent. We were producing more energy here at home than we were having to import, and we were actually becoming a net energy exporter for

the first time I think about five decades. And that was all due to the Trump policies the border, the cracking down on illegal immigration.

tremendous things that the Trump administration did. It all gets all caught up in the hoopla, and people remember the pandemic, and people talk about the nasty tweets and now we have and that's the reason why they're doing all these indictments and all the law fair against President Trump. But I think it's incumbent upon the campaign to remind folks this is how it was, and these are the policies that you liked, because most Americans did like those policies, and you have to remind them of them.

twenty three years old. They're all the same. Basically, it's her first job and her name was Sonny, so I put her aside and said, I'll call this one just because of her.