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Welcome everybody to the Buck Brief. We're going to dive into the latest in the twenty twenty four election with our friend Ryan Gerdusky. He is the man behind the phenomenal political sub sect of the National Populist newsletter. Ryan, let's get right to it. A lot of numbers over the weekend that have people saying five alarm fire for Biden reelection, Democrats freaking out for Biden's chances, and bottom line, Trump can win in twenty twenty four according to this data.
What do you say, Well, I was on your radio show a couple of weeks ago saying that the numbers for Trump were improving because the economy is bad. I mean, this is really an indictment on Biden, and these numbers show. And the numbers came out actually again with DeSantis and Nikki Haley and a generic Republican and they're all beating
Joe Biden. I think that Joe Biden has a serious issue, Namely, people think he's too old, that he's ineffective, and there is both problems domestically with the border and inflation and globally in Israel and Ukraine, and there's no sign of things getting better at all. And I think that voters are generally very concerned. I think he's isolated large groups of Democrats, Black voters, young voters, Latino voters, and they
don't feel confident in him as a leader. And those numbers The New York Times New York Times Siena poll is an excellent polling firm, but it's not alone. The numbers have been showing this gradual movement in a series of polls, showing there's real problems. And I spoke to several Democrat consultants and their opinions are either, yeah, it's a real issue. We're going to lose if Biden's the nomini too, you know, hopefully things will change over the
next year. The big hobby in the New York Times Santa Pol was if Trump's indicted, he goes from winning almost every swing state to losing every swing state. So a lot of them have their hat hang on the idea of that Trump will be indicted, either in DC or in Georgia.
It seems like a lot of these trials, Now there are a lot of them, but it seems like in each one the timeline is going to be a problem for Democrats. So if the whole strategy seems to be, or perhaps a large part of the strategy is get Trump indicted, and I'm sorry, get Trump convicted, and then all this changes. What if they can't get a trial done and get that conviction on the books before the election.
Well, and one that is moving at their fastest speed is the Washington DC case. And the judge seems hell bent on indicting Trump, and you know, the hope that it will go to the Supreme Court seems I don't know, it seems like a whimsical idea, but who knows. Other things happened that could work in his favor and it could move to a higher core. But that is I think the Washington d C case is the case that's most likely to be heard first. I think the New
York case is basically all garbage. Florida looks like it's going to take a very long time to work itself out. And then the two cases that matter are Georgia n. Washington d C. As far as politically goes, I'm not sure about the logistics with it, but the Washington d C. Judge seems hell bent on indicting Trump. She's indicting everybody in associated January sixth. So you know, I don't know.
I can't predict how it's going to go, but it's not looking terrifically great for Trump as far as who else she's convicted, and that all these people have made plea deals saying that they're going to turn on the president. They're going to sit there and say who's his that he was responsible. So so we'll wait and we'll see. That could change the entire parameters of the presidential election. You see college educated whites going from D plus ten
to D plus thirty. And I mean, I have a hard time seeing the how he would he would overcome that.
In some of this some of this stuff over the weekend included David Axelrod of Obama Administration notoriety saying that Biden needs to drop out, that only Biden can make that decision for himself, meaning he's not going to bow to pressure, right, you have to get him out for there to be But you know, I sit here and I say, okay, Ryan, then what's the plan you and I talked about this a lot because I can always people so mad at me because I keep saying, guys,
it's got to be Biden. And when I say it's got to be Biden, if it's like Kamala Harris takes over firm or something fine like that, I could see them maybe doing. But this notion of some other candidate who's just going to be the person that the party coalesces around. Walk me through some of this, because I feel like all I get these days are emails being like, it won't be Biden. And I keep saying, I get why everyone feels that way, but then who is it?
Right? Well, if Biden drops out in the next month before the deadline for primaries, they're still a primary, Like the Democratic primary doesn't stop because Biden drops out. It's just that there's a month of qualifying and you're going to see everybody from Gavin Newsom to Pritzker to Corey Booker to Kamala Harris jump in and announce that they're going to run for it, and they'll have a few
weeks basically to run a presidential campaign. And it's very very difficult if Biden drops out after he's the nominee. Then it's the DNC, the Democratic Governors Association, that's just there and figures out who the nominee will be. It is, with the exception of Corey Booker, almost all the leading contenders who want to be president are white men. With the exception of Gretchen Whitmer, they are almost entirely white men. And the only other obvious cases that they're not are
Corey Booker and Kamala Harris. And the Democratic Party of twenty twenty three twenty twenty four is not going to tell the first Black Asian female vice president you have to step down to make way for another white guy. I just don't see how that's possible. They are literally nominating the new US Senator of California, a state that is two percent black female. They nominate a black female who doesn't even live in the state because they want to give credence to the black female vote, which is
the most democratic vote in the country. They've picked a US Supreme Court justice primarily based on her race and gender, and I don't see how they're gonna sell Kamala, you know, step aside. We have a white guy to sit there and come to the rescue. It just doesn't seem like in any calculation possible. In my mind, I think that if it's not them, it will be common law, and then she'll pick a look to a new vice president,
and that will be an interesting decision. I just don't see how they tell the first female black, female, black Asian female, whatever she is this week, to step aside and to become to make way for a white guy.
Okay, what I want to ask you about this the convention argument. Let's get to that in a second, but for one moment here, we want comfortable things in our home when we can find them. The new towels just introduced by my Pillow are the next great comfortable thing you want to get for yourself. They're utilizing a cotton that's new to them and new to you that make these towels both soft and absorbent. It's a little harder to achieve than it sounds, but they've done it. They're
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and get fifty percent in savings. Remember enter promo code buck or call eight hundred seventy nine two three two sixty nine. That's promo code buck at mypelow dot com for these my Towel six piece set or just call this number eight hundred seven nine to two three two six ' nine. Ryan. The argument then that it's gonna be Biden. It's gonna be Biden and Kamala all the way to convention. And then they're just gonna say, you know what, it's actually somebody else. What do you make
of that? Oh and by the way, usually the people that make this argument say it's gonna be Michelle Obama.
Okay, Michelle. Nothing makes me more insane than hearing Michelle Obama's being the president. Hearing Michelle is like we had to hear Oprah was gonna be president for twenty years. That is as likely as Michelle Obama. It's a woman who hates politics and touristsly hates politics, didn't want Barack to be president, hated being first lady is making millions as a celebrity. Did not even stay awake for the twenty sixteen election. She went to bed early that night
and tell me who wins in the morning. I don't care. She does not like politics at all. She does not aspire to be a politician at all. She wants to be a celebrity. She is a celebrity. And if you have a choice of making millions of dollars and everyone leaving you alone as you sell cookbooks and gardening books and our adorn of the cover of magazines, why would you want to be president? For She just doesn't. This is not this is this is like the Oprah pipe dream.
And the only people I here talking about Michelle Obama are Republicans, So put that aside. If it goes to a convention floor vote, then you're gonna have delegates from every single state start clamoring for one person or the other. There is no key uniting democrat. I mean, Gavin Newsom is somebody that is not a lot of media, a lot of Republican media, especially in Republicans, are obsessed with
So let's take him as like the foil. He would have to win delegates across the South, he'd have to win delegates across the Northeast, He'd have to win delegates in states that don't have high name I d and I think the last time I checked, only like nineteen percent of the average Democrat even knows really anything about
Gavin Newsom. So who Jeremy Pritz Then it becomes a mad dash to the floor where you're going to have delegates coalesce party the party establishment sit they're on whip votes and they're not gonna whip votes against I just say, oh no, they're not going to votes against the first black female vice president. It's for a white guy who, by the way, has never been on a national ticket and in many of these cases, have never been out
a ticket out on a federal ticket. There have only been a ticket statewide for governor.
And so you're you're with me on this that it's next November, it's going to be Biden or Kamala as the Democrat, Like you're voting for Biden or Kamala. You're with me on this because you know you and I are kind of on an island here because the masses are all still shouting at us about how it's going to be somebody.
Else I've heard. But think of how many people we heard we're gonna be the president one day, and it just never manifested because they never had anything going for them, really, I mean, and they were never serious contenders. The Michelle Obama thing is a pipe dream. Gavin Newsom has never been on a federal ballot is an entire life. Neither has j R. Pritzker never, neither has ag Gretchen Whitmer.
I mean, these are the people that are really looking to launch presidential campaigns that they have been going to early states for twenty twenty eight. They're not the rest of the It doesn't Presidential campaigns don't manifest out of the clear blue sky. They take months and months, if not years, to sit there and work on to launch.
If Biden is so weak right now that the chances of them beating Biden are higher than they are in a crowded field in twenty twenty eight, and yet they are not doing it because essentially a lot of them are good party people. They don't step outside the party apparatus, and the party apparatus is still behind Joe Biden.
Right. We're going to talk about the RFK junior factor here in a second. But first up, you know, this past summer, an event thirty years in the making, finally took place. My dad, Mason Sexton, who famously called the nineteen eighty seven stock market crash on TV, went live with his first public prediction in decades. He warned the top was in and revealed his unique framework to take advantage of the falling market that would follow right on que The market peaked exactly when he said it would.
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I've followed my dad's work well as long as I've been an adult, and I can follow this stuff, and he's been right on the big stuff so many times. Simply go to this website. The second Insight twenty twenty three dot com to sign up for free. That's the second Insight twenty twenty three dot com paid for by New Paradigm Research. Ryan. You know, so we've seen the numbers. We talked about this looks bad for Democrats. But RFK
Junior I was saying this al long. I think you and I even talked about it here on either the radio show or the podcast RFK Junior. The only people that seem to get excited about him were on the right. You know, I never heard Democrats that were like, oh, yeah, we really need, you know, a Kennedy in the race right now, who's ourn anti vaccine and not just anti
COVID vaccine by the way. And now it looks like people are waking up to the fact that if he's going to pull votes, he's going to pull more Trump votes as a third party candidate. Is this something? Is this something that people who want Trump to be president should be concerned about or is it overblown?
It depends if he can get on the ballot anywhere, because getting ballot access is extremely difficult in many statess country the last I mean without a party like the Libertarian Party of the Green Party, The last person to do it was Ross Purew back in nineteen ninety six. It is extremely it's.
So hard, like, what does it require, you know, give me some sense for pevery state.
Every state has different requirements. In some states, you need to get a certain number of signatures in every state house district. In other states you just pay a fee in other insistory. In other states you need to have some other qualifying numbers. Mostly it's signatures and stuff like that within a certain days, and they have to be good and they could never have signed for other people.
It's very and it's very litigious, it's very expensive. Very few people can actually get it done without an established party on the ballot. Some states are fairly easy. It's why Kanye was able to get in the ballot in like Illinois back in twenty twenty. But a lot of states are extremely difficult for ballot access. And the one thing that Kennedy has in a lot of polls is he has a higher favorability number than Trump or Biden. So if this election comes down to who do you
hate less? Trump or Biden kind of the way that twenty sixteen was. RFK is a good soft landing page. The thing is that he's kind of trying to create
a coalition based on very weird policy dynamics. So he's very anti vax He's for a wall on the Mexican border and to stop the invasion, obviously to appeal to Republicans, and at the same time he is for math, for amnesty for illegal immigrants, he is for reparations for former sate for the descendants of slaves, things that recoil Republicans completely.
And I don't really understand what kind of coalition he's essentially trying to build unless he is going on like vibes and just saying, you know, I can be trusted, and I have all these Hollywood friends, and you know, his wife is a celebrity. He's got a lot of close celebrity friends. If they all come out of the woodwork and say, you know, RFK is a great guy, it could convince some people maybe to sit there and
cast their ballot for him. If you don't like anybody and you're like whatever, it couldn't get worse than the two Octagerians currently in the race.
You think Cornell West could have enough of an impact that it'd be worth Republicans trying to help him because he would be taking more votes from Biden.
Yeah, if he can get on the ballot anywhere. But remember in Wisconsin back in twenty twenty, the Green Party was disqualified by a federal judge for having the Republican Party helped him get on the ballot. Had the Green Party been on the ballot in twenty twenty, it is very likely that Trump would have won Wisconsin. And in the three states that matter the most Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin. At twenty twenty, the Green Party was disqualified in all
three states. So it just depends on kind of the metrics of which you get on the ballot and the ballot access and who gets it downware that's like a big million dollar question that no one's really kind of, you know, dived into. But it's also can they get there? How much money does he raise? I mean, can he get on a debate stage. I mean, we haven't had a third party candidate on a presidential debate stage since nineteen ninety six, So it's possible, but it's it's very unlikely.
And if you're't on the debate stage, it's hard to sit there and see how you can really mount a serious national campaign.
One more for you, Ryan, We got a Republican debate in a few days. Is the primary over or is there still a path for DeSantis?
You know it's so funny and Christina push on tweet issues like the Trump people say the Waka Flaca endorsement is more serious than the Kim Reynolds Governor of Iowa endorsement. Iowa is a state where it's a caucus, it's not a primary organization matters. If the Iowa GOP and the governor and the evangelicals are all mounting a campaign for Desantas, then Desandas can still have an ups in Iowa and
maybe people will have a second look at things. The big thing that going for Desantas in January when he was leading in the polls was that people have the impression that Trump could not win. With all of these polls, it is really difficult to sit there and make that argument still, And if it was a two man race, it'd be easy to make that argument because a lot
of Republicans do not want Trump. But as long as it's a splintered race and as long as Tim Scott and Nikki Haley and Vivaka and Chris are still floating around. It gets it gets close to impossible. But if if
Iowa breaks, maybe New Hampshires, things can happen. I just very hard to see how after Iowa New Hampshire and upset can happen because he is basically a He's a facto incumbent Trump right now, and he has not had the ability to have his credentials really question and they have and they took too long to attack him on his brand, and his brand is you know, I'm this honest guy and I they don't. They hate me because
they hate you. And I built the wall and I did all these things when he didn't do a lot of those things, and there was really a question on the integrity of what he was able to accomplish, on the fact that, you know, his entire political machine right now are all established and Republicans. The people who are likely to fill his cabinet as of right now are mostly established and Republicans. It's going to be a lot
of it's Trump two point zero. And that those warning signs were never put up ahead by any of the people questioning him. They were attacking him on the kind of the dumbest stuff for the longest time, and I think that too much time I'm buying.
I think they were afraid. They were afraid of the Trump bass too and alienating them forever. Ryan, thanks for being here. Everybody, go check out if you're on substack, or if you're not, you can go check it out anyway. Sign up the National Populist newsletter. I'm a subscriber to Ryan's newsletter. Check it out. Ryan, good to see you, my friend.
Thanks so much, Thank you,