You're listening to The Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts. Everybody, Welcome to the Buck Sexton Show. You know, people talk a lot about what's going on with the presidential election already, the primaries are underway, We're gonna have voting in about six months. What does the data tell us and what are we gonna be learning in the weeks and months ahead. Robert Kahaley is
with us now. He is the CEO of the Trafalgar Group, polling and marketing group gurus if you will, in the realm of poling marketing. Robert, thanks for joining.
Good to be here.
So tell me, if you would, what what are we seeing right now that is significant? Other than on the Republican side, Trump has an enormous lead. Is that very different from other periods in the summertime? If we look at previous primaries where somebody was way ahead, and then you know, with this in the context, have we seen anything like this before? How How much is this sort of determinative at this point?
One thing I can say for certain is no, we've never seen any of this before. There's not a lot of certainly his business, but that this is unique certainly one of them. Uh yeah, we've seen people have leads not usually this big, not usually over fifty percent on nationwide compared to all the other candidates, So that that's very historic, and that's just not something we're used to.
What I think is what we're seeing more. It's more interesting now is kind of the reshuffling in the in the bottom of the pack, you know where for a long time we've had Trump at the top and then Desianus our back and then it's just been kind of a jumble. And what what we've seen recently is the
emergence of Vivekraswami and Tim Scott. They seem to be kind of jumping ahead of a lot of the others, and you know, especially some like Haylu started early and kind of taking some of the steam away from them.
Do we have some senses to what did the field look like on the Republican side in the summer of twenty sixteen. I mean, I know, I'm kind of putting you on the spot, but you do polls for a living. How does this look compared.
To that by the summer of twenty sixteen from.
I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Summer of twenty fifteen, go.
Ahead, I knew you're gonna make it hard. Yeah, Trump was leading in a plurality in a lot of places, and there was this thought that that can't be real and that it's just a matter of time. So so many of these others just figured, hey, when the others get out, you know, it'll it'll kind of go away. But yeah, he definitely was leading. If you remember, he was center stage on most of the debates that happened in summer of twenty fifteen and the fall of twenty fifteen.
He was almost always at the top, usually with a little bit more than the third But that's it. So it wasn't this type of lead and that it wasn't there wasn't such a hard line. And again at that time, some of the most conservative voters were still for Crews because they didn't Trump. They didn't trust Trump to be conservative. And so some of Trump's most ardent supporters now in twenty fifteen, where some of twenty fifteen were some of the people who were most saying, we can't trust them,
this guy's not conservative. And in many ways you prove those people wrong.
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a lot of the gap. And then he announced and then the numbers started going in the in the other direction. Maybe they were going the other direction before then. I'd have to go back and look and check. But are you able to get a sense from from polling as to what happened?
Well, you know, the Santis campaign is kind of a lot like that college football team that everybody talks about. Main they had a great recruiting class, they're going to be awesome, and they're you know, pretty ran to the number three in the country of the first and the first game of the season comes in, like whoa, Well,
maybe aren't they aren't so good? And what Trump Trump had If Dessantus had gotten in versus Trump right in late January early February, before the indictments and stuff started to happen, this will be a much more competitive race. But once that started to happen, and those people are still kind of up for grabs because there's still question as to whether the Santas was really going to get in and how long it was taken to why it
was taking so long. Trump kind of took those people that were in between them that could have gone either way. And the more of the indictments came in, the more Trump was center stage. I mean, publicity is like it's to Trump like oxygen to a fire. The more publicity he gets, the stronger he gets. And it doesn't matter whether it's you know, essentially being in an oj oj style covered car ride to turn himself in or whatever,
it is that publicity help him. And that more than anything, more than any misstep on DeSantis's part or his campaigns, it was the publicity for Trump that gave Trump this advantage.
Now what are we seeing at this point? What are you seeing in terms of the polls when it comes to the critical swing states in a matchup between Trump and Biden.
Well, we've we've looked, we've looked at quite a few of these and we and we've looked at Biden versus Trump, and we've looked at at de Santis versus Trump, and what we have found is that media has done such a good job of demonizing DeSantis that there is no appreciable difference, and in most cases, Trump has a slight edge. What we do find in these swing states for the most part, whereas abortion was it was a big issue that kind of pushed its way into twenty twenty two,
and most of the states it's kind of settled. And the situation where if you really want abortion to be legal in your state, it is, and if you really wanted some more restrictions, they got passed. And so this idea, the fear of what would happen and the result of getting rid of Row versus Wade, has now been overcome by the reality that it didn't change your life very much,
depending upon which state you lived in. So you take that kind of big, big draw off the table, and then then we moved back to you know, kitchen table issues.
Biden is dismal. We look at national security. People are afraid, they're afraid of China and Russia getting together, and Trump or Desantus has a little bit of an edge there, and then you you have this this dynamic of people that look at what's been happening and and they see that when they're when they're really scared, and that we asked them the question of do you think Ukraine would have been invaded by Russia if Trump was still president and in every swing state the answera is no. So
this is idea that you know he you might not like a lot about him, but there's no question he's a strong leader. And right now, you know there's a vacuum, and when there's a vacuum for power and America doesn't post in post drink worldwide, we see what happens.
And what about the RFK junior support in some of the polling on the Democrat side, what can you tell us about what the numbers indicate there?
You know, RFK Jr. Is an absolutely outstanding, very entertaining character. The problem is his position owned vaccines, and his positions own so many things that make the medical establishment so crazy also make the Democrat establishment so crazy. Is virtually impossible. I would say that he can get above maybe twenty seven twenty eight with the Democrat primary, because I mean, you've probably got ten percent. The Democrats still wear a
mask every day. So he's just not going to permeate with that issue being so salient and so much a part of his identity, He's going to hit a hard wall.
What is in you know, I want to ask you this, if you can come back, I have to have a word from a sponsor here, But I want you to think about this. Robert will come back and have you answer it in just a moment. The most interesting poll that you've run this year in terms of surprising results or you thought important results other than the political stuff we've talked about right if there's anything you've run that you want to bring to the attention of the people
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Well, in the wake of the what was happening with by the Light and what was happening with Target, we went out to the field and just asked people, have you ever participated in any type of a boycott? And we gave an answer of yes, I've participated in a boycott based on a based on a company or organization being too conservative, uh to you know, to old fashioned whatever. Or I participated in a boycott based on a company or organization being too much to the left to progress it,
and you know, I've seen surves like this before. For the first time, the number of people who said they participated in a conservative boycott was about ten points higher than a progressive boycott. And that is just that's earth shattering. That's never happened before. There've never had a time in the past where conservatives were letting the strength of you know, of their financial power and their consumerism actually affect what they spend and what they do. And we're seeing the result.
We saw how quickly Target started to suffer. We saw how we saw what's been happening to bud Light. I mean, you can even see a downturn after some of the things that were said about Chick fil A. I mean, it just it was there. And so that to me
was very, very shocking. And you know, probably a good side that when both sides are activists and companies have every reason to just stay out of politics, when only one side is going to make a fuss, then it makes sense for a business to err on the side of doing things that doesn't upset the group that will raise raise a fit. So it actually helps to probably keep business out of so much of this stuff.
Robert Kahley of the Trafalgar Group appreciate you being with us or the Trafalgargroup. Dot org is the website. Go check out their latest polls there. I'll be seeing it also, I'm sure on Twitter and other places. Robert, thanks for showing your expertise. Good to have you on.
Absolutely I will go watch that video. You got me fired up, now go check it out. Thank you.
Cheers