Gordon Chang - Will the China-Russia Axis Start WWIII?

Gordon g. Chang, Gordon, my friend. Good to have you back, sir, good to see it. Thank you so much. But this will be fun. So the biggest news right now with regard to China is and something that came up of the weekend, how worried should we be about Chinese military support to Russia in the Ukraine War? And I want to dive into what that could look like. But what do you see it as right now? Gordon? China has been supplying military assistance from the very beginning of this war, Buck,

but China has picked up the pace now. The Breaking Defense website reports that almost every day, and antonoff An one twenty four, which is the biggest cargo plane in the World leaves Jung Joe, which is in central China, and it goes to Russia. It turns off its transponder when it leaves. I mean it's carrying ammunition and other high consumption rate items. This follows reports that China has been selling drones, so the Wagner Group, for use in Ukraine, and from the get go in this war, China has

been feeding location data to the Russians. The Ukrainian drone operators were using products made in China. That means that China knew the location of the Ukrainians. China was sending that over to Russia, and then Russia was taking out the Ukrainians. That's military assistance. Now we have a series of state from Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, and others saying, oh, we think China is contemplating supplying lethal

assistance to Russia. Well, they've already been doing so for quite some time, and I think that they owe us an explanation why they think that all of these reports are untrue, because obviously we are hearing information contradicting what the administration is publicly telling the world and the American people. Is there a concern Gordon I mean, as you just laid out, there's already military support that has been going

from day one from China to Russia. But is it possible in your mind that there could be an escalation even on top of that from Shijinping to provide either just greater amounts of what's already there, or perhaps more advanced weaponry or even Chinese training on certain specific systems.

There always can be a ramp up in assistance. And one of the explanations that I have just guessing, because all I'm doing is speculating, is that the administration doesn't want to acknowledge the lethal assistance because it's still trying to work with China to keep that assistance to the bare minimum. And maybe people in the administration think that if they publicly confront China that Beijing will increase what it sends over to the Russians. I don't know. That's

not a good strategy. It's not working, and I think that it just misunderstands the Chinese way of thinking. We have a lot of policies but that sound good to the ear like they should work. But for decades we've been applying these policies and we now have disastrous results, which means obviously we've got to try something new because what we've been doing ain't working. What is the Chinese interest in Ukraine and in the Ukraine Russia conflict? What

are they hoping to achieve? Is their strategic objectives? Again we have to speculate because I think that ultimately what they're doing is counterproductive. But obviously they see themselves on the same page with Vladimir Putin. Cejumping and Putin, they view the world in the same terms. They identify the same enemy, which is us, and I think Siejumping finds Putin to be very useful because he's willing to go

out and really put us on the back foot. You know, the more that we expend resources in Ukraine, the fewer resources we have to defend our friends and allies in East Asia. So that's part of it as well. We're being bled and we're being distracted. Now I think we need to be in Ukraine because the best way to deter China over Taiwan for instances, to make sure that Putin losers in Ukraine. But the point is we are being bled and the Chinese, I think, enjoy watching this.

What is the what is your response to the assessments that are out there now from people that there is a just a growing Russia, China Iran axis. You know, it harkens back to the axis of evil speech of the Bush administration many years ago with Iraq, Iran and North Korea. Now it's much bigger, much more important countries that people are tying together. What do you make of that. I think that's absolutely right, and I think that we have to add North Korea and perhaps add a country

like Algeria. So you put together a lot of these countries in the world's dividing into camps. President Biden doesn't want to acknowledge that, but it's playing to see. And if you don't acknowledge reality, you can't deal with reality. So, yeah, the world is dividing, and it is a Cold war, and it's a I think, far more dangerous period than the Cold War. You know, people say, oh, you know, nineteen sixty two Cuban missile crisis the most dangerous moment

in history. I could argue in say nineteen sixty one, the Checkpoint Charlie crisis in Berlin was perhaps even more dangerous. But the point is we know from the archives, but that neither Khrushchoff nor Kennedy were willing to use nuclear weapons. We don't know that about Vladimir Putin. We don't even know that about Siejun Ping. And I think that makes this the most dangerous moment in history. And because you've got that large camp on the other side, there might

be willing to use nukes. It's just we're not comprehending the possibilities. Are there areas of friction between Putin and She that US policy or just US action could exploit. I mean, how can you make them less cozy together so they're less of a threat to the world order as we know it. I think that it's theoretically possible, but as a practical matter, it is not. These two just believe that they find advantage in each other's arms.

And I don't think that there is anything, as a practical matter, we could do to separate them, except to perhaps bring down Russia. We do that, We drive it out of Ukraine. Yeah, we end that partnership. And you know, people will say that's extraordinarily dangerous, And I say, saying something is dangerous is not a meaningful objection, because out of three decades of truly misguided Russia policy in China policy,

we have created an extremely perilous situation. There are no safe options, and the most dangerous option of all is continuing with the policies that created this disaster in the first place. So we're going to have to think about, you know, the world in very different terms and realize that it is perilous. Gordon, I'm gonna ask you about China Taiwan here in just a second. But first from our sponsor, My Pillow. My Pillow is an amazing company.

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probably need some new sheets at home. My pillow dot com promo code b U C K Gordon, China, Taiwan. Let's start with this. Is China, after seeing the situation in Ukraine, less likely to invade in well, we'll say a five year timetable because they see all the trouble that Ukraine, that Russia has had in Ukraine, or more likely because they feel the US is distracted and doesn't have the stomach for a fight. In addition, on the

Eastern Front, so to speak. I think that this is just guessing, but I think China is less deterred than it was before. Now. William Burns, the CIA director, a couple of days ago, actually said that China is more deterred seeing Russia's problems in Ukraine, and the Chinese, we know,

are looking very closely at Russia's experience. But you got to remember, you know, the happy talk in Washington is the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people have convinced the Chinese not to invade Taiwan because they worried about similar resistance. And you know, I think there's something to that, But we got to look at the rest of the situation, and that is there was a failure of deterrence in

twenty twenty two. We saw the coalition that was a raid against Russia, the United States, the twenty seven nations of the European Union, in Great Britain had an economy twenty five point one times larger than Russia's in twenty twenty one, and yet we fail to stop the Russian invasion. That is, I perhaps the biggest failure of deterrence since the Second World War. And I think China's seen that.

I think that that reinforces the notion in Chinese minds that, as Siejumping's favorite phrases, the East is rising and the West is declining. And c has actually thought for a very long time the United States is in terminal decline. So he sees the failure of deterrence. He sees the United States not still being deterred by Russia because we're

not supplying the assistance that Ukraine needs to win. And he can sees that the threats to use nuclear weapons have prevented the West from actually coming to the aid of Ukraine in the way that we need to. So you put all that together, and I think on balance, the Chinese believe that they've got a bigger, bigger green

light to invade. How we don't know how formidable gordon are the Taiwanese defense forces in the face of a possible Chinese full scale invasion, and also what would it take to get well, let's I want to ask you about Japan as well, but let's just start with how does Taiwan stack up against those initial critical days of Chinese forces in an amphibious landing, crossing the straits and invading Taiwan doesn't stack up very well because it has the wrong types of weapons, and that's the fault of

some Taiwan general officers who asked to buy the wrong things. And it's also the fault of the Pentagon for pushing on Taiwan some of the wrong weapons. Taiwan needs cruise missiles and it also needs submarines, and we have not been willing to sell them submarines. We've been slow walking arms sales, as Representative Gallagher said after he just returned from Taiwan. So you know, Ukraine needs F sixteens, but I don't think Taiwan needs F sixteens because there's gonna

be no airfield left in Taiwan. You know, after the first couple hours of a Chinese bombardment, we're not going to have any air fields left in the region either. But that's another story. The point is that Taiwan can maybe stop the Chinese for a little while, but they're going to need help from their friends. Gordon, you raise

something I think is important for people to know. There may be this conception of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan looks like some you know, obviously massive air aerial strikes beforehand to try to soften up the target the island of Taiwan and then naval flotilla, amphibious landing craft and they just try to occupy and overrun the forces. But you seem to indicate it it could be a lot broader than that. What does if you were to invasion and I know, look, the Pentagon does war gaming all

the time, whether the right or wrong. They don't know until the bullets start flying. Right, if you were war gaming, what a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would look like. What happens in those first we'll call those first seventy two hours. First of all, I think that maybe for six months we don't know that an invasion has started. Because a Chinese invasion of Taiwan may not start with war in space or you know, a massive aerial bombardment of Taiwan.

It can start with this. The dissemination of a pathogen in Taiwan, you know, just weakened Taiwan's ability to defend itself with the disease. You know, We've got a lot of smart American war planners who say, oh, don't worry about all this. We know, you know, we'll have months of notice of an invasion. I'm not sure that that's the case. Because you know, we've got American war planners who assume that Chinese war planners think like American war planners,

and so I don't know if that's the case. I think that we could very well have this long period. It's sort of prepping the battlefield, so to speak. We could have sabotage events throughout Taiwan which people may not know, or sabotage you know, derailments, chemical fires, all the rest of it, the stuff we see in the US for instance. So first, the first moments of a war may not be evident for quite some time. But when it really goes kinnectic, I think we're going to see a lot

of our assets in space taken down. We'll see a bombardment of Okinawa and Guam. We'll see a naval blockade which includes sovereign Japanese islands, because remember the island of Yanagumi is actually south of Taipei, and for a Chinese invasion to be successful, they've got to have a blockade. For a blockade to be successful, it's got to include Yanagumi and other Japanese islands. So this gets really ugly really fast. And one other thing, buck sorry for going on,

but well, go on, go on. The first kinetic element of a Chinese attack could be the use of tactical nuclear weapons. I mean, everyone says how hard it is to have a cross Straits invasion. You'd have to have combined land air sea operations, which the Chinese have never done in their history. How do you avoid that, Well, you use tactical nukes and you force in the Chinese mind, you force everyone to back off because they don't want to get nuked as well. Do you think there's a

chance that they would also? Are there any US assets in the region that they would go for with the idea that while it maybe US territory, it's not quite you know, it's not quite the Fifty States. Do you think they might hit Guam? Do you think they might try to go after some US Pacific assets? Absolutely? And in Okinawa, they got to take out Okinawa. They cannot afford to have the large US military presence there left intact.

So if you're going to go after Guam, you might as well go after American bases in Japan, and you probably will have the North Koreans engage in some sort of provocative activity to draw off the United States. So yeah, there's just to be clear, you could foresee or at least you could find plausible we'll put it that way. Gordon. I'm not you know, no one can predict the future, and that's very clear, but you know, it is important to understand what the possibilities are in order to plan

for them. You could foresee a situation where a Chinese invasion of Taiwan also coincides with North Korean what just military action, maybe not an invasion, but military action of some kind strikes, artillery strikes, etc. Against South Korea, absolutely, because what better way to divert the United States. And so there could be all sorts of things that are occurring. And also it could be sabotage by Chinese agents in the US, which I think would probably occur pretty much

at the same time. So this is not going to be limited. I want to ask you about Chinese influence in the United States Gordon in just a second. But first up here, if you're a Team Mobile subscriber out there, they're investigating a data breach that exposed a sensitive personal information of thirty seven million customers right after the New Year. Cyber Hackers grabbed this stuff without notice. It could include

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percent off or call one eight hundred LifeLock again. That phone number is one eight hundred LifeLock. Gordon. There's a lot of attention that people pay to Chinese influence in this country with regard to a few things Hollywood and the way that it's clear the media industrial complex here, the entertainment complex in America doesn't want to offend China. That includes occasionally professional athletes, the NBA notably not wanting

to upset Beijing. And then some tie in to Hunter Biden, the son of the President of the United States, getting a whole lot of money from Chinese Communist Party backed business interests in China. I wanted you to to sort of lay out for everyone in the scope of how much, from the elites on down, what kind of control an influence operation does China have in the US. China for decades has been trying to buy off elements of the

American society, and they've been extremely successful. As you've been talking about on November twenty eight, twenty twenty, Joe Biden was elected president, but before he took office, a Chinese academic d Dong Shong gave a live stream lecture in Shanghai got a lot of play throughout China, and d talked about how China was controlling outcomes at the highest levels of the American political system. He said that China was able to get what it wanted up until Trump.

It mentioned that the Chinese levers of influence during the Trump administration were broken, but how China was looking forward to exercising control after Biden took office. And when Dee talked about Hunter Biden, everybody in the live audience in Shanghai was snickering, so you can see what the Chinese thing. Also, D said there was no American politician who could resist China, and every American could be bought. Now, I'm not saying

that what D's assessment was correct. I actually think it wasn't. But the point is that's what the Chinese think, and that shows you how pervasive Chinese influence in the United States is. And by the way, those levers of influence that D talked about, that he was exercising both before and would exercise after Trump two things Wall Street and Henry Kissinger. Just one other thing. The thing about Eric Swalwell was the Chinese. And I'm not saying that he

was treacherous or anything, because I don't know. And I also believe that being targeted by China's Ministry of State Security is not a sin, because that means everybody in Congress would be a sinner. But the point is that they Chinese first contact a swallowal not when he was in on the House Intelligence Committee, which would obviously be of great importance for China. They first contacted him when he was on the City Council of Dublin City, California.

That means that they have not just one Swallowell. That means they must have hundreds or thousands of swallow Wells.

That shows you how pervasive their operations are. So they're going for influence operations not just obviously at the White House level, but as you point out, all the way all the way down and then on the corporate side, because that's an area where you know, whether it's Disney or Paramount Pictures or National Basketball Association, clearly companies have a sensitivity about to say Chinese interests, Chinese Communist Party dogma, right.

I mean, it's not they're not worried about offending the man on the streets so to speak, in Beijing. They don't want to upset the powers that be in China and lose access to those markets. How much, how much money is at staken things like that, I mean, what what were to happen, What would happen to some of these companies if Shiji and Ping said no, not you, you're out. Well, we're already starting to see that buck because Cijumping has in fact been saying that. But you know,

obviously the NBA would lose its entire China market. Um. The Hollywood studios, Um, they already losing, you know, a large part of the market because Beijing has been promoting local films making it difficult for foreign films to be shown. But you know, Hollywood still is very much on board with China. Um. Fortunately the movie Maverick Top Gun um has sort of convinced Hollywood that you don't necessarily need

the Chinese market. Um. But this is not only this is this is a question of Sijumping forcing American companies and other companies out of China. A good job. Maverick not allowed in China, Gordon, I didn't know that, but they didn't allow that movie in. Yeah, I don't think it was allowed in Remember the issue though, was the patches on right, Yeah, yeah, the Taiwan you know, the

Taiwan message there. So really what Beijing, what Hollywood was saying, was look, we don't care, We're going to do this. You know where you let your film in or not. But American films have not done that well in China recently because Beijing has really started to put the clamps down on them. So, yeah, they still have a market.

It's still considered to be important in Hollywood, but I think it'll become less important as Beijing seeks to really control what the Chinese people see to a greater extent than they've done in the past. I want to come in in just a second here and ask you about what's going on inside of China with in terms of stability, political stability, the economy Hong Kong. We'll get to that

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even some American flags being weighed. There was all this media attention on the threat of Hong Kong being essentially consumed by the Chinese Communist Party, losing its special status for all intents and purposes. What ended up happening there? What's the status of Hong Kong and the freedoms that

it was supposed to have today? Yeah, just for some background, Beijing promised fifty years of a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong in the one Country, two systems formula starting from July one, nineteen ninety seven, when Britain, as they say, handed over Hong Kong to the People's Republic. This was a pursuant to a treaty. China has clearly violated that treaty. It's now running Hong Kong lock stock and barrel, and it has done so since basically twenty twenty.

You were referring to the big protests of twenty nineteen. Sejumping decided that he was going to take over Hong Kong. They did that with their National Security Law, which was basically called the End of law in Hong Kong, and right now, Hong Kong in many respects, it is actually less free than the mainland itself. Certainly it's more dangerous for foreigners because we don't know exactly where the line is.

So yeah, Hong Kong has been smothered by Beijing. And also we had mentioned before we brought in North Korea to the conversation. We don't hear that much about North Korea these days, and we didn't during the Trump administration because of the the outreach, the discussion conversations between Kim Jong un and then President Donald Trump. What is North Korea up to right now? Has a situation deteriorated when it comes to US interest which really are in Japanese

and US interests in the region. Jesion pain keep North Korea ready at a moment's notice to cause trouble, to throw the international community off balance. What's going on? First of all on their missile program and their nuclear weapons program. Those are proceeding, and you know the Biden North Koreans will fire off intercontinental ballistic missiles. Those are violations of UN Security Council resolutions, and we complain about it. Over the last one we call the Security Council meeting, we

don't do anything. So this really is this is the United States. We are not vigorously enforcing our sanctions against North Korea, and more important, we're not enforcing our sanctions against China and Russia, which is busting those sanctions. You know, North Korea relies on exports sales. That remains that they're getting dollars China is Chinese banks are laundering those dollars through our financial system. Buck We know about this, and

we do nothing to stop China from doing that. So this is shame on us because we didn't allow Pablo Escobar to run money through New York, but we're allowing the Chinese to do so inside North Korea. Right now, they don't have a famine like they did in the middle of the nineteen nineties, but there is a severe shortage of food. They didn't recover very well from COVID. There's a lot that we do not know. But basically, Kim Jong un is able to survive and we're not.

We could, we could affect that situation, but we've decided not to do so because after the outreach of diplomacy during the Trump administration, Biden has gone back to a policy you could generally call strategy patients, which is basically ignoring the North Koreans. Gordon, how is China doing with regard to COVID right now? I know that they've had obviously the most extreme lockdowns of any country in the world,

stretching back for a long time. But I think people were pretty surprised in this country to hear that China was still having extreme lockdowns well as of the last six months. What's going on? Yeah, China had a zero COVID policy, which was a policy meant to prevent any transmission of the disease, and it was, as you say, the most extreme set of disease control measures anywhere, or

maybe anywhere outside of North Korea. It's not entirely clear, but the point is that they had these large quarantine camps, Stanley testing, all the rest of it. On December seventh, the National Health Commission in China enacted its ten point plan, which was essentially the abandonment of zero COVID, and they let the disease rip and even by Beijing's own estimates, about eighty percent of the population has now been infected by COVID, probably more by the end of this winner

they'll be somewhere, maybe one or two million deaths. We don't know, but clearly this has been China has had its COVID epidemic in the beginning and now at the end, as we've seen in the last couple of months or so, and they'll get over it because this is omicron it's pretty mild, but nonetheless China was not prepared for this, and the Chinese people are pretty upset at the way

that the government has handled it. What are the chances in your mind, Gordon, that we could wake up in a week, a month, a year and Xijing Ping is no longer the Chinese premiere for reasons other than his own natural health and demise. That's a great question. In October, at the twentieth National Congress of the Communist Party, where cijun Ping got his precedent breaking third term as General Secretary,

everyone or almost everybody said that he was unchallenged. Since that time, Buck, we have seen reversals of his signature policies like common prosperity, zero COVID as we talked about crackdowns on certain businesses, and so that has led people to believe that perhaps cijing Ping is not as powerful

or influential as he first thought. The Chinese political system has gotten more opaque, if that were possible, So there's less that we know about it, and we can only guess from these policy reversals that there's turmoil at the top of the Communist Party, because otherwise c would have been able to enforce his will and make sure that his policies we're not reversed. So I think that there is a real problem. That he's clearly the most powerful,

but that doesn't mean he's as powerful as he once was. Gordon. Also on the American front, if someone told you right now that they were considering traveling to China for you know, a US citizen for work or for fun, are there concerns? I mean, for example, right now, if someone told me, hey, Buck, I want to go to Russia. I've never seen Moscow, I want to go to a Red Square, I would say, bad timing, don't do it now. Do I think they

know by the odds would be okay? Yeah, probably, but I certainly wouldn't tell a family member or a friend of mine. I think it's wise to go. Do you have a similar feeling about China right now or our relations still strong enough that American businessmen can feel safe going over there and not worry they're going to get detained for some made up reason. It hasn't been saved

for quite some time. Buck He remember when President Trump sought Canada, asked Canada to detain Mung Wang Joe, who was the chief financial officer of Lahwei Technologies, which is China's national champion telecom equipment provider. China just grabbed two Canadian citizens, the two Michaels as they're called, and detained them for no reason at all, And this obviously was in retaliation for China complying with our request for the

tension of Msmong. Just a couple of just a day or so ago, on Sunday, we learned that Balfon, Chinese citizen of China Renaissance, a very influential tech financier, was cooperating with authorities as the way they was put in. He disappeared in the middle of this month and people didn't know whether he had fled or whether he was detained.

He's detained, I mean, there's just no law. So if they can do that to someone really powerful in China, they can do that to an American citizen, and I think the State Department should have an advisory on travel to China, which is more than just be careful, It should be thou shalt not go, because I think that it's not possible for US to protect American citizens who have been detained in China for any reason. So unless you're traveling on a diplomatic passport, I don't think that

it's safe to go to China. Gordon, last one for you, how is the Biden administration doing on China policy in general? What's your honest assessment? What are they getting right? What are they getting wrong? What are you worried about? It's not been one hundred percent awful, but they're not moving fast enough and they're still issuing. Just to give you an example, you know, they're still issuing hollow warnings on

providing leadable assistance. As we talked about, that's a real problem because let me give you just a little bit of historical analogy as to how dangerous this is. You remember England and France we're issuing hollow warnings to the Third Reich in the late nineteen thirties, and we know that in August of nineteen thirty nine, Britain and France told Hitler that they would declare war on Germany if Germany invaded Poland. We know from the archives that Hitler

didn't believe Britain and France. He thought he could invade Poland and there would be no general war in Europe. Well, Hitler was the most surprised person in September nineteen thirty nine because he invaded Poland, and Britain and France actually made good on their warnings the first time they had done. So that's our problem right now. We are the Britain in France. Of our decade, we've been issuing all these hollow warnings to China Biden administration and not following up.

And we have and this is not just Biden, this is previous presidents as well. We've taught the Chinese to ignore our warnings and eventually the Biden administration is for the protection of the American people, is going to have to carry through on one of them. The Chinese aren't going to believe us. This is going to get ugly. This is nineteen thirty nine ugly. And so yes, their Biden administration has done some good things, like the CHIP restrictions,

the restrictions on selling chip making equipment. But it's too slow, and we are now at a point where the Biden administration is not acknowledging how dangerous this world is, and it's engaging in policies that in the past have led to great tragedy. Get the US The Great US China Tech War, Gordon's latest book, also The Coming Collapse of China, and follow Gordon Chang on Twitter. Gordon always enlightening. Thank you for being with us. Good to see you. Thank you so much. Buck