Buck Brief - Trump's Reelection Hinges on This

Trump's team has as of Monday this week, reached out with an effort to have the Supreme Court intervene with a stay on the Circuit Court's decision based upon the District Court in DC decision. Now, this can be messy, so I want to boil this down to its simplest parts. First, what's going on here is two things simultaneously. A fight over the timing of all of this. One side trying to speed it up Jack Smith, the other side trying to slow it down Trump and his team. That's essential.

And also this usually would be the main thing, but in this case it's not. And I'll explain why. A fight over the constitutional merits of the Trump position about immunity Now let's start, because this is really important. The timing will determine whether this gets to trial or not. If it doesn't get to trial before the election, then it obviously can't impact the election the way that the Democrats wanted to. So the stakes here could not be higher.

They think, if they can get a conviction of Donald Trump on the January SI case, they could have Biden at the top of the ticket, Commal at the top of the ticket, or someone else at the top of the Democrat ticket, it won't matter. They will win. That is their fundamental belief, and some of the polls that we have seen show that they could be right, certainly in a Biden v. Trump matchup, if Trump is convicted. Specifically in the j sixth case Atlanta, that case is

falling apart New York. That case is a joke. Florida. That case doesn't look like it's going to get to trial, although there's been some pre trial motions about that this week or motion around that I should say this week. But let's get first back to this central issue of the timing of the immunity claim. So here's what we know.

The district court, right, so the lowest level federal Court in DC found against Trump, right, So then he appealed it to the Circuit court, which is the appeals court Circuit Court of DC, and the Circuit court also found against Trump. Now, what the Circuit Court has said is we want the district Court to be able to enact its will here, which would mean bringing the case against

Donald Trump. So they're trying to speed this up, right, and the Trump team has responded by saying, hold on a second, I need the Supreme Court to issue a stay on the Circuit court s toff, I give this all straight, so that the Circuit Court's order that the

District Court can go forward is on hold. So they cannot proceed with the trial until we have a chance to get two things, an en banc hearing meaning all the Circuit Court judges hear this, and a Supreme Court decision on whether or not this immunity claim is valid. And therefore the whole you know, this whole component of the effort to get Trump goes away. Effect of the JA six trial is null and void because Trump has immunity from these claims. Now here's how they write about it.

The court should stay. This is the Trump team writing, and the decision which I just read through. Uh, the court, I should say, sorry, it's not a decision, it's the Trump team. Uh, in the process of trying to get a stay, an application for the stay of the mandate to be issued by the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. Okay, so they are asking for a stop. Trump's team, they're asking the Supreme Court to put a stop on the DC Circuit court

saying that the District court can go forward. So see how all these pieces are moving in together. And here's what they want. The court should stay. This is from this application for a stay. The Court should stay the d C Circuits mandate pending resolution of President Trump's petition for cerciorari in this court. Essentially, you gotta hold off on that to see if the writ of cert gets granted,

meaning the Supreme Court says we will hear this. So put a pause on all the trial stuff in DC until the Supreme Court says whether or not they will hear it. Also their request, as additional relief, President Trump requests this court stay the DC Circuits mandate for the resolution of a petition for on bank on banc French or some people say end bank, but it's on bank consideration in that court before the filing of his petition

for cerciorari in this court. So they're saying, we want the Supreme Court to say hold off on everything, but first we want them to put a hold off on everything until we have a chance to do the request for an on bank. Hear it, right, So you've got these three levels at the top of a Supreme Court, Appeals court below that, and then distrect court below that, and it's like, you know, it's like the pinball machine going off one after another and then it goes up

again and then one after another. Trying to kick this back and forth. Trump's team is saying, you've got to the Supreme Court. On the merits, very likely we're going to win. This is what their application for the stay says. On the merits they're going to win. We're going to win, or at least are likely to win or have a serious chance of winning. So you can't allow this damage to be done by Trump of the trial. You can't actually allow a trial to happen before the Supreme Court.

Here's this, because the damage is done by the trial itself. Now you'll notice there's all these games, and this is absolutely key imperative public importance of a prompt resolution of this case that comes from the Special Council, which was quoted in this application for a stay. The Special Counsel is taking an unprecedented legal position that the public has a right to a speedy trial. But that's not true.

The defendant has the right to a speedy trial if the defendant wants to file motions, if the defendant wants to have his team bring you know, bring appeals and bring various that's within the defendant's right. There's not some countervailing. Oh but the public wants this to go faster, so sorry, it has to go faster. That doesn't exist in our law. The speedy trial is merely there for obvious reasons, so that you can't drag it out and punish the defendant

with the process through duration. So by extending this, it's very obvious. If I'm charged with a crime and they can drag me into court for five years, oh we're going to have this, or rather they can wait before I can even be seen for five years. That's the bigger thing. I mean, they could drag this out different ways. But if they just have the charges hanging over my head for five years. My reputation is destroyed. Think of

all the anxiety that I have to go through. So no, they have to be able to give me a speedy trial. So they cannot allow delay to be its own form of punishment. And then in the trial itself, I can't just say, oh, we're going to take you know, six months, day in and day out for this trial. If that's not necessary, right, they have to have to move expeditiously. They have to move on a timeline that's fair to

the defendant. There is no countervailing. Oh but the public wants us to go fast, because you know who wants us to go fast? Democrats, Jack Smith, the Special Counsel, Joe Biden, the White House, the Democrat Party, the machine of the left. That doesn't that doesn't weigh into this, that doesn't count. So there's a whole new concept being introduced here that I can just tell you is absolute garbage. We're going to come back into the merits of this case.

So the timing thing is essential. Right. Trump wants it to go slower for obvious reasons, and he has a right to want to go slower. He also has a right to have this all heard. The process is allowed to favor the defendant here legally and politically, they can't speed the process because there's some desire of the public. That's fake, that's cheating, that's politicization of the justice system. But then also we'll talk a little bit here about

the merits. But this is everything. If Trump wins this, he's probably going to be president. Right if they win this legal battle, Donald Trump may lose because of the lawfair against him. So we'll return to this in a moment. But you know, when Karen and I bought a home last year, there was no question who are going to use for our mortgage because we have a long standing relationship with the best in the business, American Financing. So

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this is a big thing. It goes that they go into in this application for the stay even they go into Marbury v. Madison, and they go into a Separation of Powers and Article three and Article two. And this is all basically about the following can a president be prosecuted for official acts in office? And they make a very compelling case that well, no, of course not, because then the party that comes into power afterwards could prosecute

any president for doing what he does in office. You know, Oh, I don't like that he used executive authority for this missile strike on this enemy of the state, So he's now a criminal. He's now going to be prosecuted for that and all the second guessing that would come from it. It would effectively undermine a president's ability to do his job when it comes to official acts in office. Right.

So what they're arguing on the other side, first of all, they do the no man is above the law, as if that settles this, that actually appear in the district court ruling on this. What they're arguing is, effectively, Donald Trump became a citizen when he was no longer in office. He is now subject for the law like everybody else. And they'll be arguing that he that it is not an official act that would be protected, and that it was a ministerial act. Effectively, I mean, they're breaking this down.

It's going to get into was Trump doing what presidents do and therefore he cannot be prosecuted for or was Trump outside the scope of what is protected for a president and since he is now a citizen, can be prosecuted for that. Now, this is going to be a fascinating constitutional melee, and I'm not sure I could tell you right now how the Supreme Court would rule on it. I think probably six ' three, but we would have to see. But what's even more obvious and more urgent

is the timing of this is everything. Timing is everything when it comes to this Trump leadlegal challenge, because if they're able to get the trial going, the damage may be done. So this is why they're asking for a stay from the Supreme Court of a stay of the District Court's movement toward trial so that they can get an on bank They can request an on bank appeals court hearing for the Appeals Court in DC, the Circuit Court in DC. And also they want a writ of sircirari.

It's tough to say, but that's what it is, where the Supreme Court will be able to weigh in on the immunity claim themselves. This is going all the way to the top friends, it is going to the Supreme Court one way or another. I think that's quite clear, and the entire election probably turns on it. So in a sense, we may have the Court determining whether or not we get to even vote for our preferred candidate

in this election, in a free and fair election. It is not an overstatement to say that the republic itself is at stake. These are the stakes that we face, so we'll continue to follow this. Appreciate you letting me do a deep dive into it. Shields high