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Hey, guys, welcome to the Buck Brief Pre election edition. Within about twenty four hours or so of you listening to your watching this podcast, we'll actually have election results in some of the states. So yeah, that's where we are. Now, let's just take a dive into it with our friend Ryan Gerdusky, National Populist Newsletter is his on substack. He is the conquistador of CNN, and he joins us now he chokes us.
Now.
That seemed to work. I feel if that goes Yeah, I like that, you know what I mean, You know what I'm saying. So, okay, tell me this Trump's gonna win this thing. What do we know from the early vote? I mean, give me the top line on what really matters. Early votes are in. What do we know for sure as we talk right now?
So it looks very so unless something radical changes on election day, and it could because I don't like making certain predictions. I learned my lesson in twenty two. If something doesn't change, the black vote is down substantially and for every one black voter who doesn't show up, Democrats need like one point five to to college educated white voters to make up for them. Depending on the state, they need more, like in Georgia they would need like
five basically to show up. Because Republicans win the college is Acada white vote in Georgia. That means a lot. In Georgia right now compared to twenty twenty, the black vote is down over one hundred thousand votes. It's a lot of votes to have to make up, and they are typically not election day voters, they are typically early voters. In North Carolina, it is down substantially. In Ohio. I just did these members today for a candidate in Ohio.
The three biggest blue counties Hoga, Franklin, and whatever one is in the middle.
I forget them.
But those three counties in twenty twenty were twenty eight point five percent of all early voters. They're currently twenty four point seventy five percent of all early early voters. The rurals almost everywhere are on fire with huge turnout numbers. Those are all good things for Trump, bad things for Trump.
College educated white voters are almost certainly voting for her in big numbers possibly bigger than twenty twenty, and she will win a majority of every minority group that will also work for her, and the women vote is very, very large. Those things are working for her. Election day bat will matter tremendously and it will just have to wait and see who is going to show up and if Republicans have the momentum to show up on election day?
Is it fair to say that Trump is in a better position twenty four hours before states are calling the elections for one side or the other than he was in twenty twenty or twenty sixteen.
Oh. Absolutely, In twenty twenty and twenty sixteen, everyone was like on the Titanic playing the violin. No one in his inner circle thought he could win. In sixteen maybe like maybe, like Steve Bennaditt, but most people didn't. And in twenty twenty, most people thought it was over. I will say in twenty twenty, I thought that it was going He was not going to win reelection. So it's a much different game this time around. It's very very close.
Democrats are banking on a huge support of white voters for kamalaw This is a group that they've had major polling errors within the past that I've said about repeatedly, and if the black vote is down, there is not enough college educato whites to get her out of that. So that is why she spent her entire day today
in Pittsburgh and Philly. That is why Democrats are all over the South right now, that is why they went to sit there while Obama said to black man, you have to go vote or otherwise you're patronizing tours blackack women. They're very worried. The black mail vote is down substantially. It's the rural black vote is way down. The urban black vote is slightly down.
Now is it the the black vote overall very much down or is it disproportionately within the black vote men, black men who are not coming out for Kama. Do we know that yet?
Yeah, the black mail vote is way down. The black overall vote is down because of the black mail vote. Because the black mail vote is so far down, it is bringing the overall black vote down. And these are people Typically election days in Georgia, for example, and North Carolina are whiter and more Republican than early voting. So the fact that that is the history. Now, of course,
strikes can be broken things can change. But everyone who has been watching these for a long time estimate that the number of the percentage of black vote is going to go down post election day. So if we wake up on you know, tomorrow morning and there is seventeen lock long lines in Atlanta and in Philadelphia, that's very good for Harris. If there are not, she's going to need an immense, immense turnout from white college educated voters to make up that difference.
All right, I want to say we're going to get into Pennsylvania next, and then I want your Michigan, Wisconsin, and we'll say sort of, you know, lightning round on anything else, any other states that you think need need particular attention. We'll go to Pennsylvania next. But our sponsor here is Porter and Company. And look, I recently came across a Wall Street legend with a fascinating warning November eighth. He says he's going to open the biggest rapid fire
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All right, Ryan, Pennsylvania, the good, the bad, the ugly, twenty four hours out from D day here on this election? What can you tell us? So?
In Pennsylvania, Republicans make up about thirty four percent of all early absentees return. Democrats are about fifty six percent. I believe fifty six and a half percent. Democrats are down about seven hundred thousand votes from their twenty twenty number. Republicans are down about thirty thousand votes from their twenty twenty number, a few more will come in. I guess
I'm you have. You have up to election day to mail your vote or to just hand it in at the polling site, So I imagine they're going to hit
their twenty twenty number. What is an interesting fact is that for Republicans, their best counties are in the northeast part of the state, which have a huge amount of New Yorkers who fled there during COVID, and in rural western Pennsylvania, where they have surpassed their twenty twenty numbers in almost every county outside of Allegheny, the home of Pittsburgh, and Erie, which is another city. What Democrats. What is interesting about Democrats is democrats best counties are Tioga County,
Potter County, Bradford County, Adams County. Now that may not mean anything to you, but those are all mega Trump counties. Those are all seventy to eighty percent Trump counties. What that sits there and says to me, and the only way to get seventy or eighty percent in those kinds of counties because you get ancestral Democrats to vote Republican because there's not enough Republicans to make up eighty percent
of the vote. What that says to me is conservative Democrats are as eager to vote for Trump as conservative Republicans. That's a very good sign for them. On the other side, there is a lot of lower propensity Democrats who have already voted the Republican lower pensity. I remember, it's not traditional early ballot state, early voting state, because they don't do early ballots. They sit there and they have to mail them as a whole bit to do. And they
have a lot in Philadelphia. They could still sit there and get so that's the good thing for Democrats. There's a lot more Philadelphia, there's a lot in the in the Coller counties of Philadelphia. For the Republicans though, is that they're not playing games. In twenty twenty, Republicans led in eight counties of the sixty seven in Pennsylvania. They currently lead in forty today, mostly rural, mostly small. But they're not playing games. They're actually showed up and voted early,
which is a very very big deal. I know.
I said that we would do Pennsylvania and then moved to Michigan, Wisconsin, but actually wild card the Iowa Seltzer poll that Democrats were doing backflips over with the all their excitement over the weekend. You know you're the pole guy, right, I don't know what I am. I'm not the pole guy.
I'm the other stuff guy. But I can sit here and say that if Kamala Harris wins Iowa, she's winning everything that's even vaguely close, right, I mean Donald Trump didn't even Iowa by eight and twenty twenty, So why she's.
Winning iowash Yeah, if she's winning Iowa, she's winning Ohio, in Florida, That's.
What I mean. Like, it seems like that's completely insane. So what I don't just want to dismiss it as oh, it's you know, propaganda or whatever. People say. She's a decent pulster you pointed out I saw on Twitter. You know, she's been wrong big time a bunch of times too, right, I mean, as many polsters have. But what is she getting wrong? Like I want to learn from the error here, Like what is she missampling because maybe that's applying elsewhere, maybe it tells us something.
So and she has been right in the last three presidential elections to like the point, and she's been right on a lot of US Senate elections. She's wrong almost every primary. I mean regularly every primary. But she doesn't weigh pass voter activity or partisan membership right. She doesn't weigh Republican Democrat when in twenty twenty the state was a point six percent Republican. Today it is six percent Republican.
Every county has moved to the right. What she sat there and said is that the change for Kamala is coming out of two major groups senior citizen white women. Because remember in Iowa, almost every senior citizen is a white woman, Senior citizen white women, and senior citizen white men. She said, white men over sixty five moved thirty points to the left from twenty twenty, senior citism women with twenty nine points to the left. That's the entire thing.
Her poll says that senior citizen women, only one in four white women over sixty five is voting for Trump in Iowa, and that only half of men white men are voting for Trump over sixty five. That seems very, very, very illogical. She also hays almost very little to no movement among independence So this would require Kamala to win about twenty to twenty five percent of senior citizen Republicans call me skeptical, but I don't think every Fox newsviewer
who watches Sean Hannay become a resist live overnight. I think that there was a waiting issue. What a lot of people are sitting there and saying is that this is a sign that there's real movement among seniors towards Kamaal. This is proof of it, and maybe they're right. This is the narrative I have been extraordinarily skeptical of because it was the same narrative in twenty sixteen, and it
was the same narrative in twenty twenty. It has been consistent where they say Hillary was going to win seniors and she didn't. They said Biden was going to win seniors and he didn't. Now they're saying Tom's gonna win seniors. I don't believe it. There's also a big divide in the state. They say that Iowa is a rust belt state. It is a difference. It is a split between a rust belt state and a prairie state. It is a lot like Kansas, but it's also a lot like Wisconsin.
So where is the change coming from that? What kind of voter. Kansas should be closer to this election than it was four years ago, so should Nebraska. But it doesn't mean either one of the on a flip. So that's really where she sits there and says there from Mark Halpern asked her about my pull my tweet about it. I don't know if you saw that, and she didn't
know what they are that you didn't see it. No, oh, Halprin says, look at you Ryan Gardusky's tweet on exit polls from twenty twenty to your numbers, your cross tabs in twenty twenty four, and she asked what the R and D stood for in the cross tabs. So really, yes, you can look at on video. I'll send it. I'll texit to you.
Okay, Yeah, that sounds about right. All right, So we were going to do Michigan Wisconsin up next. We'll get to in just one second with Ryan Gardowsky here in National Populist newsletter. Look, the debt it's not going away. It's going to keep getting worse. I hate to break the bear or bad news. However this election goes tomorrow, the debt's going to keep getting bigger and bigger. What can you do? About it. Well, you can take action now and you could put some of your savings in
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eight ninety eight ninety eight. All right, Ryan Michigan, what do we know so far so.
Michigan does not have party registration either, as Wisconsin. These are very tough states to estimate because they don't have part do not have party registration. The recorder for Wayne County, which is the home of Detroit, says that she believes there's going to break the twenty twenty number in Detroit. That turns to me that high considering people are leaving Detroit and the population is shrunk by six thousand. I find that hard to leave. But she knows the city
better than I do, since I've never been there. That would make it very very hard. This would be into the whole Oakland County western Michigan, which they don't like. Trump vote would be able to sit there and stop any working class search from those places. We don't know what the numbers look like right now. With the Muslim voters,
that will be very very interesting. Obviously, racheated to Leeb refuse to endorse Harris, as did many many, many people, including the mayor of Dearborn and the mayor of another Muslim town city, endorse Trump. That's all we know. In Wisconsin. The rural vote is on fire. It's about seventy percent already where it was in twenty twenty, the urban voe is only a fifty percent. That's a good thing for Trump.
He's going to need to content con continue it. Wisconsin and Michigan also day of voting registration, which is a little problematic, so that turnout could be much higher because new people could be registering. That was that whole conspiracy that you heard on the internet from twenty twenty, was like, oh, there's more votes than there were people. People can vote and register the day of. You don't have to look
at past voting registrations. So it makes it a little harder and a little more problematic to really estimate where Wisconsin and Michigan are.
We're going to really have some put with Ryan. Now, all right, Ryan, gun to the head Pennsylvania. Who wins, Kamala or Trump?
I I hate these pulp questions. I think Trump's gonna win. I think Trump's gonna win because I think the senior citizen numbers are all wrong. And I've been I bed. This is my this is my drum. I've been being Are.
You saying he's gonna win Pennsylvania or he's just gonna win the whole thing, including pennsylvani He's gonna win.
He's gonna win Pennsylvania because the black vot's not coming out, minorities aren't coming out, and senior citizens are more Republican than Pulsar. That's my estimation. Those are That's exactly That's the only reason I think that he has a chance to win. If those things fall apart, then he will lose and comm will be our forty seventh president. But that is my estimation. I think those three things are happening. I don't think the blackmail votes excited for her. I
don't think Latinos are especially cited for her. And I don't think that the uh, the senior citizen vote is nearly as blue as people think it is.
Wait, what's the uh what's the Gurdusky fallback plan? If Kamala wins? Are we talking like Buenos Aires going a little more rural outer Mongolia? Like where are you going?
You know what? I don't know. You just got to sit there and stay listen. The greatest irony is and I've said this, I think I said this on your show, is that the if the if the census got it right and didn't allocate three extra electoral College votes to Minnesota Colorado and Rhode Island, Texas would have got two and Florida would have got one, and we wouldn't have
needed any of the rost belt states. If this coalition is able to hold together, if North Carolina is able to stay Republican, George is able to stay Republican, this may be the I mean twenty twenty eight, but after that it may be a very long time before they do need the rost belt again. I would just probably go to you know, the problem is actually you people, everyone who went to Florida, some of you should have
sat there in state, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Actually, I'll just blame all the new Floridian Republicans have been fleeing the state.
Cond we did we concentrate too much in Florida? Is that really what's Yeah?
Yeah, there is a net loss of Republicans overall from the Midwest from people who moved to Florida. They just moved so heavily to Florida that it caused a big erosion of Trump voters. But I mean, I.
Think Trump's going to win Florida by it. But I think Trump's gonna win Florida by ten points or more by the way. Is that crazy to you?
It's a little high, but I wouldn't be surprised one by six or seven. Okay, maybe he won by ten. I mean it's not impossible. I mean Florida is a brand new country. Florida is a new It is a new day in Florida.
I'll want to push you on because the great thing is what people can listen to this and then the election will happen, and then we can just play out your clips where you nail it. I want some outlier predictions from you. Any Senate race, any house race, any particular state. Right, so just a few random I'll give you a minute to think about it. You know, is Carrie Lake gonna pull it out last minute in Arizona? Is New Hampshire actually in play? For no, no, don't don't
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in your hands, so easy to set up. I've got it here at home mantis x dot com, m A n tis x dot com. All right now, now I want your I'm not asking you to make a prediction, per se, Like, I'm not asking you to say this will happen, But what are some things that you think have a serious possibility of of happening? Hung Cow in Virginia for Senate, Like, is there anybody that's in the mix that you think could surprise people tomorrow State House or Senate?
And Nevada they're counting on a huge fourth of Clark County that hasn't shown up. To show up. I'm not sure if it will show up. It's a lot of hopes are living in Clark County. If it doesn't show up, I think that there's a drill chance that one of the House seats there in the Vegas area will flip, and possibly the Senate seat, and that would be a surprise.
The way you think Sam Brown, You think Sam Brown can win in Nevada.
I think it would be cool. I mean, I think that he's got a decent chance just because I mean, they're literally banking all their hopes on these mail in bells that haven't landed yet. And I don't know what they're waiting for for these mail in ballots to land. Maybe they will be there, but they're hoping for thirty thousand more Democratic ballots to sit there income that haven't come so far.
Who has a better shot? Who has a better shot right now? In your mind? See this is so fun. You just keep throwing stuff at Ryan. He's like stop, stop, Like, no, we have more McCormick or Hovedy. Who do you think is better positioned to win right now in their specific race? McCormick and Pennsylvania For everyone at home, Huvedy in Wisconsin, McCormick really.
Because Hovedy has two outlier right wing candidates. There's a MAGA Party candidate that the Democrats launch and then there's a libertarian, so they'll split are off at lease of you know, maybe a point between the two of them.
Oh my gosh, they ran little spoiler candidates there. Nobody's even talking about that.
Yeah, in Wisconsin they did. So he's got to overcome really three opponents. McCormick only has one.
So McCormick's in a better shot with that one. Is New Hampshire any chance at all? Or is that just crazy talk for Trump?
It's not crazy talk, but it's hard. It is a hard lift. I don't expect it to happen. But if it wasn't happening, I will say this. They didn't send Bill Clinton there and and a bunch of other high Democratic surrogates to New Hampshire, and JD didn't go there just because for ships and giggles. Something's going on there.
And Virginia in play or not really.
No, no, not in play. It's probably gonna come within five points four points, so probably retract if it does. Virginia seven could flip. That would be the big if Virginia seven flip, that's the whole victory for all of all Virginias.
So who's in that race.
It's that spy guy who's it's his brother. I forget his name. Yeah, he's the Democrat and I forgot.
He's running against a spec ops guy like he's running against like the American badass on the Republican side. It isn't so funny. It's like even when we have military versus military, the Republican military guy, you know, looks like Chuck Norris's twin brother, and the Democrat military guy looks like he just finished a pie eating contest. I'm just saying this is this is the truth, you know, Like I don't know. I'm just I just call it like I see it. So, yeah, that's true. It is. It
is what it is. Do you have anything else? Do any other wisdom you want to share with everybody? You're all they're all going to listen before the big day.
So if you know an older person who can't get around, get.
Them to vote.
Bring them to vote. That's their best thing. You want to sit there, I mean, listen watching television, listen to the radio is great, but it's not going to change election. Find an old person who lives in your neighborhood and dragg him out to go vote and give him a ride, because that's that's important. And also look for the weather reports. I wonder what states are going to have rain. This rain does change election turnouts.
It's kind of funny, you never think about that, but it certainly does. Ryan Gridotsky, everybody subscribe to the National Populist newsletter. My friend, we'll be talking after the election for sure. Thanks for joining us.
Absolutely fine,