You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Buck Brief, Ryan Gerdusky in the mix. He's going to explain who's going to win the election, why they're going to win the election, all the day, to all the numbers, all the things. He's just gonna make sense of it all for us, because that's what he does. He's got the National Populist
newsletter on substack, which you should all subscribe to. Let me start with let me start with this, Ryan, everything that seems to happen now, the consensus opinion quickly becomes it doesn't matter. It's not going to do anything, you know what I mean. Trump's convicted and everyone's like it doesn't matter, No one cares, Like, it's not gonna do thing. Hunter, Biden's convicted, It's not gonna matter. No, what is gonna matter?
You know what I'm saying, Like, like these people who could go either way, Trump or Biden, what is going to make up their minds because it doesn't sound like any of this legal stuff will.
I think the debate will matter a lot. I think that the debate will be. I think it's weird that's in June. I think it's on a purpose that it's in June. I think that the debate.
Will mean something to a lot of people because it will be because expectations, mistakenly, I think by the Trump campaign are so low for Joe Biden, kind of the same way that Joe Biden made them low for Sarah Palin back in two thousand and eight.
I think that if Donald Trump, but I'm sorry Joe Biden, is coherent and cognitive for just ninety straight minutes, then he will be declared the winner. Donald Trump is also very weak at debates. He's never done very well in debates, and there will be a lot of questions that the moderator is going to be a very hostile and the questions are going to be January six, and the convictions and the argument will be about Trump's character instead of
Biden's time in office. And if we have eighty million people watching, that could be a very big deciding factor. It'd be the last time Joe Biden makes the first impression interesting.
So you think that because I also think that generally in other circumstances, we've seen the debates don't really matter, right. I mean, Romney absolutely wipe the floor with Barack Obama back in twenty twelve in the first debate. I know the second debate was different than Candy Crowley thing, but obviously Romney got smoked, right, It wasn't even closed the election. It feels like in a lot of these debates people
forget them within days of them happening. But in this case, you're telling me, if Biden does reasonably well, then the expectations are set so that will help him at least overcome the age thing.
But well, the difference between the but in twenty twelve. In twenty twelve, Obama was able to market Romney very early on, so people had an opinion on Mitt Romney that was very unshakable, very hard to shake by the time that the election came rolling around. Because the two things, the two groups of people that Romney sat there and spoke to his one working class whites, which was saying to them, he took away your jobs and he shot
them with in China, you can't trust them. And he spoke to Hispanics and Blacks on most of the identity issues but also healthcare. He saw it to Hispanics, I gave you healthcare, and he said to blacks, you know, keep me in office, let's keep it. Let's you know, let's win one for our people. And that mattered immensely to those three groups of people. And by the time November rolled around, but I was the first debate rolled around, there was a very deep feeling among working class whites in Iowa.
Remember Rodney lost.
Iowa, Iowa, Ohio, he lost Ohio, and it sat there and said, you can't trust this guy.
He shipped your jobs to China.
Well, I have the thing that the votemember vulture capital. That was the thing that instead of venture capital they called the vulture capital.
And yeah, he was very good.
The problem with private equity stuff is it actually looks pretty bad sometimes, right, I mean the whole like cut costs a lot of people levered up with debt, pay yourself a huge amount of money and then leave this like limping mutilated company to kind of like that's not good. Is not good.
Also, Romney was impersonal.
I remember that. On the campaign show One Time Romney in twenty twelve, they asked him like he was supposed to be doing some kind of like, I don't know, like crowd work, and they were like he was like trying to guess people's ethnicities.
It was very strange.
And then he got a puff piece interview and they said, what do you like to do for fun? He said, I like to be jolly. He just was always very remote. He was always afraid of embarrassing.
He's a weirdo, and as we know he's I mean the fact. I mean, for me, Covid was like a a binary You got it right, You're a person we can trust, or you didn't, and you're like you're like the enemy. Also, I feel that way about the BLM, especially if you're supposedly a Republican. If you thought that the BLM riots were like justified or whatever, you're you're like dead to me forever. Yeah. Yeah, so he falls in it. Remember he was more marching. He was like
I'm here because black lives matter. With the mask on his face. I was like, oh my god, what happened to mid r The absolute worst? Okay, but but back to the upcoming debate, which is it's like two weeks, isn't it. I'm just realizing it isn't.
Like two weeks and two weeks like that. Yeah, yeah, you see step.
Is saying that all that has to really be asked of Trump. Well, the most important thing to be asked if Trump is who won the twenty twenty election? On that stage, how do you.
Think it's gonna be hard?
That's that's gonna hurt? It is most people, most Americans think that Joe Biden legitimately won that election. I know Republicans, but most Americans do.
If if you think.
Trump is going to say on that stage where I started review, do you think Trump is going to say I want Like he's just gonna come out as he is going to.
Say it, what is it going to say? I guess look, guys, no, I came to the conclusion I want just to be fair.
Another politician would talk around it and be like, well like what really the election now was the one that you know what I mean, they would do that, But like He'll just be like, I want it. It was beautiful, wanted by ten million votes. Like he's going to do that, right, He's going to do that.
Yeah, he's gonna sit there and say I won the election.
He's gonna be flat out be like, yeah, I won the election, and I was stolen and mail in ballads and truth the vote, and I can write his freaking answer for him. He's not gonna change. And if enough of the questions, if the first forty five minutes are conviction J six stole an election, Okay, by the time that half the audience is tuned out, they'll be like,
so the border's a mess, let's talk about that. And you know, and you know, Donald Trump is gonna I don't know if he's living with a pivot or move it forward or to have an answer.
But if I was on the campaigner now, I'd already be working with him.
And saying, let's do some debate prep, buddy, because you cannot screw this one up, because no one will hear another debate until the end of summer. This is the last memory they have until they go off and to the beach or to the mountains wherever they go for the summer.
And this is it.
This will be the last first impression they have. And early voting starts September in some states, so you are looking at a very very very you know, tight couple of months for this is the last time people ever hear from you. And I think, I think the debate will matter, especially given that there has been a post conviction bounce about one point, which is not that much,
but it will matter enough in the swing States. And I mean, Donald has a ton of money now thanks to the conviction, but he's really got to put it to good use, and he's really got to make this election about Joe Biden's presidency, not about Donald Trump's personality. Because, much to what anyone doesn't want to leave, Donald Trump is not personally likable. His policies are personally liked, but he himself is not likable.
You're gonna get you're gonna get be yelled at by everybody watching his podcast. I actually think it's I know, you don't care.
Yeah, I think he's very funny. He's funny to a certain people who like him.
If you grew up and you loved Al Bundy, I'm married with children, you probably like Donald Trump.
Uh, that's probably your sense of humor.
If you thought that he was a really gross person, it was a lot of funny. You probably don't think Donald Trump's funny. It's just there's a there's there's certain group of people that do really find him entertaining and enjoyable.
Uh, it's not. It's not everybody, though.
Let's I want to talk about because I don't want everyone to just leave democrat weakness in different swing states in a moment here, we're gonna we're gonna reel everybody back in talking about Democrat weakness in particularly Michigan and how that's going out with the whole Israel Palestine things. So I want to get to that. But first up, our sponsor Porter and Company. Porter's been a front of mine for ten years and he's got an amazing documentary
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You would have a Christmas card from you?
Yeah.
You and Michael Malice are the other ones who come on my show and like give me a hard time And people are like, why that guy's giving your hard time, But it's okay, we love you. My theory is this, people keep saying, oh Trump, I'm sorry, Biden's gonna lose Michigan because the Muslim vote is going to not vote, you know, the dearborn, etc. They're not going to show
up because of Israel Palestine thing. I keep saying. As the election gets closer, they're just gonna be running ads like you got the quote Muslim band guy with Trump or Biden. They're not going to vote for Trump. Maybe people can argue some of them will stay home, but I feel like there's a lot of whining about this right now. But ultimately, if we're relying on the Muslims of Michigan to enlarge numbers, let's say, tens of thousands not come out for Biden because of what's going on
in Gaza, I don't know. I don't feel good about that. I feel like I feel like they'll still vote for him. I don't think that they're going to bandon the Democrat Party over this? Am I wrong? Do you think they will?
I think there's two things.
One, in this polling over Muslims in America, they pull Arabs. Forty percent of Muslims in America are not Arabs.
They are black.
There are two hundred thousand black Muslims in Georgia. So I would really like to know what the black Muslim population thinks, because that is going to be as important, if not more important, given where they live in swing states,
than just the Arabs of Michigan and Dearborn. I also think it depends on what Arab leaders are really trying to push out and convey Arab leaders, listen, if Joe Biden loses because the Muslim vote sat out of this election, or vote for Donald Trump, the issue of Israel no longer becomes as bipartisan as it once was forever Democrats. Mass immigration will have changed the issue and the Democratic Party will no longer think it favorably to support Israel the way that they have.
That would be a big.
Win in the long run. If Muslim leaders see that and say, this is the chance and who cares Donald Trump be a one term president of four years and we lived through with the first four years. I don't know if they'll care.
And the problem was I think microphone, by the way, is rubbing against your collar and creating kind of a weird distort. Can you hold the whole hold the wire away?
Sorry, okay, I'm sorry about that. So I think that if I think that if they have the perception that they have, they've lived through for for more years, what's another four when in the long term they can make the most powerful country in the world no longer support the most their most hated country in the world, being Israel. I think that there's a real possibility because if they the Democratic Party loses because of Muslims, the issue of
Israel changes fundamentally. The next day. It will no longer be this bipartisan effort to support Israel. It will be the people who in the squad portion of the Democratic Party will expand exponentially until you we told you so, dump Israel. And it's not also the Muslims, by the way, it is like the crystal balls of the country. It is the far left white people. It's people who live in Alexandria. They are are Alexander, Virginia. Those kinds of people exist outside.
I have a I have a.
Egypt too, by the way, just to be fair, but yeah.
Yes, yes, that is one hundred percent true Alexandria Egypt as well. But that is I I know, I have you know, one shit lib relative. She talks about Gaza endlessly and like that kind of personality when they need something to grasp onto it all the time.
I have my version of this, which I talk about on radio at legs and people.
Why do you think, what is it with?
Why do left wing white opera middle class like live within ten minutes of downtown d c uh. You know the sort of white lib female prototype double masked during covid owns. A few cats doesn't want to get married, has a partner who's a guy, Like why do they care about Palestine so much.
As a partner who's a guy.
That's so great because they live for their whole entire being is like that. They are the good white. They're standing out for people who just have had everything down trotted.
They are the people.
But the in this house, we believe it's black lives matter, it's Ukraine, it's some undertrodden people, it's Asian hate, it's whoever is to sit there and.
Say, no, I'm the good white. I promise you I'm the good white.
Wow, it's amazing how powerful that no white guilt is everything. White guilt is such an enormous political tool. It has been used by unbelievable, you know, to tremendous effect by the communists in this country.
I have to say it's.
It's pretty pretty remarkable, but it's it's a true one. How are you feeling in general about the the upcoming election? Just just give me your quick rundown, the kind of lightning round Trump's chances. Senate Republicans Senate or Senate Republicans. House Republicans how's it looking well.
I mean, the thing with Trump right now is he needs he needs I feel very good in the sun Belt. I think that there is a very high likelihood that Trump will went through the Sun Belt. The Biden campaign is all but pulled out of Florida, North Carolina, you know, completely, Texas is not even being considered. And he's definitely on the back bench. Where this election is is in the Midwest, and it's particularly among a base election. Do white working
class people come out? All this talk over Hispanics and Asians and young black people will not matter in the electorates of Georgia, sorry, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan that arene to ninety five percent white and black. It's going to be Do white working class people go out? Does he go and speak to them? Does he appeal to them? I keep saying, this is why he needs to pig JD. Vans for vice president so badly, is because as he needs someone who can tell their his life story and
reflect their life story. And and I just don't see any other candidate really doing that on the national stage. And and I don't think the idea of winning over broad strokes of suburbanites is going to happen. I think it really comes off to, you know, some portion of the minority vote changing, but also most importantly, having non college educated whites marching out to support Trump.
Look not as they look okay, I mean they look okay. I mean.
The thing is in the Senate, you have a definite pick up in Wiscon West Virginia, which makes it fifty to fifty. And then you have Montana, which we don't know because he's a very untested name. Bernie Marino is down pretty substantially and not pretty substantially, but he's down in Ohio in every poll so far, so maybe.
We'll pick up.
The thing about the Assenate candidates is a side aide from Larry Hogan and Carrie Lake. They are very unknown quantities and so they have you. Their name idea is actually very low. I think that in a poll today in the Maris Pole in Ohio, I think only sixty seven percent of the people had heard of Bernie Marino. So when you have a third of the people have never heard of somebody before, you can really change some people's minds. Carrie Lake and Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan was
the two term governor Maryland. He's a very well known and very well liked entity in Maryland. Carrie Lake ran for governor and became a bit of a political celebrity. She's a very well known and very disliked person in Arizona. So given that is going to lose, yes, oh, big time. It's going to be a bloodbath. It's like the first fifteen minutes a saving Private Ryan. It's going to be
a disaster. She's not She's an enormously disliked personality. She comes off as weird and strange, and she she doesn't know which way she's running. She has changed position on abortion four times. She is you know, she has tried to reach out to moderates and then backpedaled and attacked moderates. She doesn't know which way, and she will be vastly underspent.
I don't think the NRSC is really spending much in Arizona because her numbers are just well, her numbers, and you know, she should have done the good for the party and not run, but she the ego is immense.
The So it sounds like just on the presidential side, just the last thing here, the election really sounds like it comes down to Georgia Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Is that really what determines it in your mind?
Or yeah, one hundred percent. I don't think. I mean, listen, like a.
Trump is good, right, I mean North Carolina is good.
So I'll put it this way since I wrote this on a tweet, but I don't remember the top of my head. But it's something like this, like since twenty twenty two, Trump has led every poll in Texas is twenty twenty two. He's lett in every pole in North Carolina since polling began. He's lett in every pole in georgia's polling began. He's led in every poll in Arizona, I think, but one since polling began, like thirty seven out of thirty eight. He's led in every pole in
Nevada since polling began. He has not lost in a single poll I think, except for one, which is an outlier in any of the Sun Belt states, not Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, or Nevada. He is about fifty to fifty in all polls in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
So given that, given that RFK will be on the ballot in all those states, and there'll be a lot of people who hate the vaccine that will be, you know, voting, and maybe a lot of black people, by the way, who loved his who loved his uncles, that he also has a lot of appeal with. That is a big question and it is all going to come down to does he bring his base out, does he get them to sit there and support and does he speak to
those voters? And I think that he needs to speak much louder to them than he has been and organizing them immensely, because I don't see a ton of organizations so far from the Trump campaign. And these are people with low propensity voters. These are people, by the way, you want to be voting by mail or in person early because the chances of them showing up on election day are going to be very very very small. They
are not guaranteed likely voters. The blue haired, college educated, fifty something year old white woman or black women by the way, who is a lifelong Democrat will be voting. They have a high propensity voting. So the groups of people who vote the worst or worst voting behaviors are Asians and Hispanics at the bottom. Then non college educated
whites then blacks than college educated whites. So even though there's more non college educated whites, they don't vote as frequently, so getting them to vote early is so so so important.
Ryan Dusk give everybody making their vote.
Subscribe to the Subscribe to the National Populas newsletter on substack. Ryan talk to you more as this comes along.
Thanks so much, Thank you,